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kaldaniels
03-21-2007, 01:01 AM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/tom_verducci/03/20/preseason.picks/index.html

from si.com

"blah blah blah....There are only six teams that can't make the playoffs (Nationals, Royals, Devil Rays, Reds, Pirates and Orioles), and of the 25 teams that have a shot, any shot, at playing in October, roughly 15 of them could win the World Series -- about three times as much real competition as the Yankees faced in the '90s.....blah blah blah"

Ok Mr. Verducci, first of all the Reds were less than 5 games out of the playoffs last year. Less than 5 games=you have a shot, thats all.

Second, It sickens me that the Reds are listed in that sad bunch. We don't belong in there....right?

Nugget
03-21-2007, 01:08 AM
I don't know. We've improved one spot from last year (has he ranked us above the Pirates?):doh:

redsrule2500
03-21-2007, 01:15 AM
screw him.

dougdirt
03-21-2007, 01:16 AM
Please dont bring up being close to the playoffs last year in comparison to us being close. We over acheived last year and the rest of the division sucked. Its not going to be that way again.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-21-2007, 01:18 AM
We know(think) we're better than that. Most other people aren't going to until they actually go out there and get in the playoffs. This team DOES have to prove that last year wasn't a flash in the pan, which it very well could have been.

And to add to this, I don't think we're a good team yet, but we have the potential to be a good team.

guttle11
03-21-2007, 01:18 AM
I think it's more him overvaluing the Cubs, Cards, and to a lesser extent the Brewers. I'd bet the farm that if the Reds played in the NL West, they would not be anywhere near that list.

I still get a kick out of the now yearly Brewers love. I believe this is the 3rd straight year they have been a "sleeper" team because of their young talent. Certainly injuries have hampered them a bit, but at the end of the day, they still finished 3rd or 4th. But they're a sleeper team because they are young. Yeah...show me.

Phhhl
03-21-2007, 01:20 AM
I believe the Reds are better than every club he lumped them with in this article.

pedro
03-21-2007, 02:05 AM
I believe the Reds are better than every club he lumped them with in this article.

Me too.

Highlifeman21
03-21-2007, 04:18 AM
We belong in that group.

We're a team that will win between 72-76 ball games this year.

Get us a new manager, a legitimate #3 SP, and wait for the trio of Bruce, Votto and Bailey to contribute, and then maybe, just maybe we might be able to actually say with all certainty we are "contenders"

edabbs44
03-21-2007, 05:53 AM
I believe the Reds are better than every club he lumped them with in this article.

Definitely...Cincy is the best of the worst.

MrCinatit
03-21-2007, 06:02 AM
So, are Seattle, Colorado, Arizona, Texas and San Fran actually, according to this guy, play-off worthy? Because I have my doubts about them and a couple of other teams which had okay years last season (Philly...I'm looking at you).

SunDeck
03-21-2007, 07:14 AM
This has gone on forever; guys from New York, LA, Chicago who can barely point to Cincinnati on a map much less having any real knowledge of teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox writing for SI or blowing hard on ESPN about them as though they know what they are talking about.

The Reds have made strides in the last two years. It will take more than two to rebuild what Marge and Carl tore down- a strong farm system and a competent front office. I'm quite happy with the direction they have taken and even though I don't see them winning the world series, I am quite prepared to be happily surprised by the quality of the team that takes the field this year. At the very least, they will have a much stronger chance to compete in every game this year, which is fine by me.

If Verducci wants to blather on about his favorite teams, who cares?

RedlegJake
03-21-2007, 07:16 AM
Question marks and ifs....the Reds could be very good IF all those ??? fall into place. If Hamilton has a solid rookie year, IF Junior stays healthy, IF a closer steps forward, IF Lohse, Belisle, EZ, or Saarloos step up and have a career year, IF Homer comes up later and wows, IF EE continues his progress into a top hitter....on and on. Too many of them in fact to be considered a contender until the Reds prove up.

redsmetz
03-21-2007, 07:35 AM
Question marks and ifs....the Reds could be very good IF all those ??? fall into place. If Hamilton has a solid rookie year, IF Junior stays healthy, IF a closer steps forward, IF Lohse, Belisle, EZ, or Saarloos step up and have a career year, IF Homer comes up later and wows, IF EE continues his progress into a top hitter....on and on. Too many of them in fact to be considered a contender until the Reds prove up.

There are plenty of teams on that list who have their fair share of "If's" - many of them considered contenders in our own division. As others have said, it's patently absurd to suggest the Reds have no chance of making the playoffs. I disagree with those who say you can't gauge that by last year, but last year proves the point. They almost made it last year. Why? Because they played better than the pundits expected and the division was woeful, but that shows that circumstances happen and the results play themselves out.

Now I don't disagree that there are a lot of "If's" involved, but this team this year is better than last years. And we don't need the proverbial "career year" (as folks are apt to suggest around here) - we need decent performances out of players who have the ability and need to play to that ability. As I repeatedly say, you can't tell a "career year" in the present - its only in retrospect that we know someone's had a career year.

Spike
03-21-2007, 07:40 AM
Shooting for a winning record by All-Star break, then we'll talk. If we were within 6-8 games at the All-Star break anything can happen. Baby steps.....

chicoruiz
03-21-2007, 07:43 AM
I think five teams have a chance in the pathetic NL Central; the Reds at least as much as the Astros who aren't on the list. On the other hand the Blue Jays aren't on the list either, and it would take an act of God to get them in the playoffs in their division.

Soon enough, they'll start playing the games and everyone's predictions will be the very definition of meaningless...

Edd Roush
03-21-2007, 07:44 AM
The Reds haven't made the division in a decade. I don't expect respect.

Just thank God that pre-season rankings and the BCS have absolutely nothing to do with the Reds this season.

Hell, I couldn't care less if they picked the Reds last. Why do sportswriters' opinions who have no clue about the Reds matter?

The Reds will be a solid club, who will win any where from 75-85 games. The Josh Hamilton story, the development of EdE and the awaited arrival of Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will keep me on the edge of my seat this year.

Strikes Out Looking
03-21-2007, 08:20 AM
Any writer that believes the Cubs have a shot at the post-season and the Reds don't loses credibility instantly with me. The Reds may not be the BRM of old, but they are still better then the Cubs.

Always Red
03-21-2007, 08:48 AM
Any writer that believes the Cubs have a shot at the post-season and the Reds don't loses credibility instantly with me. The Reds may not be the BRM of old, but they are still better then the Cubs.

These are the same folks who blast Kriv for "driving up the cost of pitching" for locking up Harang and Arroyo to LTC's. But when the Yanks, BoSox and the beloved Cubbies spend spend spend, then all in the world is right and good.

You see, the Reds weren't supposed to sign those guys, not at all. Harang and Arroyo were both meant to hit the free agent market and go to the Yanks or Sox as big time, #1 starters. ;) It's just not right that they stay with the Reds! :rolleyes: ok, tongue out of my cheek now...

It remains to be seen if the Reds are better than the Cubs or not. I think both teams have a lot of question marks. I think this Reds team could literally finish anywhere from first to last in the Central, depending on how things shake out.

But to list them as one of 6 teams in all of baseball without a shot at winning...I think that's a little extreme...and honestly, it's probably a little wishful thinking on Verducci's part.

edabbs44
03-21-2007, 08:49 AM
Any writer that believes the Cubs have a shot at the post-season and the Reds don't loses credibility instantly with me. The Reds may not be the BRM of old, but they are still better then the Cubs.

There is no reason to believe that the Reds will be better than the Cubs this season.

Unless you bring up the curse. ;)

Always Red
03-21-2007, 08:55 AM
The Reds will be a solid club, who will win any where from 75-85 games. The Josh Hamilton story, the development of EdE and the awaited arrival of Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will keep me on the edge of my seat this year.

Very true.. the future looks a lot brighter to me now than it did two years ago.

M2
03-21-2007, 10:10 AM
There is no reason to believe that the Reds will be better than the Cubs this season.

Unless you bring up the curse. ;)

I expect the Reds to be better than the Cubs this season.

My no chance list - D-Rays, Orioles, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Pirates, Cubs

My slim chance list - Marlins, Reds, Rockies

Though they could have a decent team, I don't think the Blue Jays have any real chance either. My sleeper little-to-no-chance team (e.g. a team I don't much like though they'll be considered a serious contender) is the Tigers.

lollipopcurve
03-21-2007, 10:31 AM
I think the Os will be better than expected, and the Pirates too.

I think the Brew Crew is overrated.

membengal
03-21-2007, 10:35 AM
Harang and Arroyo as anchors at the front of this rotation are the reason that Verducci is so off the reservation by including them in that list. No, I don't think the Reds will win the division, but do I think they could surprise me and make a run? Sure. And mostly because of the horses at the top. If those two come through again, it is a nice head start on competence...

BRM
03-21-2007, 11:37 AM
Harang and Arroyo as anchors at the front of this rotation are the reason that Verducci is so off the reservation by including them in that list. No, I don't think the Reds will win the division, but do I think they could surprise me and make a run? Sure. And mostly because of the horses at the top. If those two come through again, it is a nice head start on competence...

I think most of these guys are expecting a decline from Arroyo and some probably expect a little decline from Harang as well.

Unassisted
03-21-2007, 11:42 AM
I'd rather be a fan of a team that exceeds low expectations than one that falls short of lofty ones.

kaldaniels
03-21-2007, 11:47 AM
Please dont bring up being close to the playoffs last year in comparison to us being close. We over acheived last year and the rest of the division sucked. Its not going to be that way again.

Based on last year, the Reds have a chance this year. A small chance, yes, but they have a chance. You don't know for sure. Neither do I. But I'd say there is a chance, thats all.

dsmith421
03-21-2007, 12:09 PM
These are the same folks who blast Kriv for "driving up the cost of pitching" for locking up Harang and Arroyo to LTC's.

The only time I can remember Krivsky being criticized this season for skewing the pitching market was when he was throwing enormous sums of money at Mike Stanton and David Weathers. Is that really off base?

RedlegNation
03-21-2007, 12:15 PM
Silliness. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, but things could certainly break so that the Reds could.

I don't remember the last time SI could be taken seriously.

kaldaniels
03-21-2007, 12:19 PM
What got me about that article really wasn't the "no shot at the playoffs" remark. It was the reality/perception that the Reds were at the same level as the 5 or so other teams listed there. I don't believe/or maybe don't want to believe the Reds are as bad as those teams.

rdiersin
03-21-2007, 12:31 PM
The only time I can remember Krivsky being criticized this season for skewing the pitching market was when he was throwing enormous sums of money at Mike Stanton and David Weathers. Is that really off base?


I believe he was criticized also for the Alex Gonzalez signing. In which someone, unnamed IIRC, said that they were driving up the price. Considering the way things unfolded in the FA market, I have my doubts.

Here's the link and quote.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5742


So far, Wayne Krivsky's not making friends. "He's signing guys no one wants and pushing the bar up." I can't print the rest of the quote from an NL official.

Always Red
03-21-2007, 12:35 PM
The only time I can remember Krivsky being criticized this season for skewing the pitching market was when he was throwing enormous sums of money at Mike Stanton and David Weathers. Is that really off base?

IIRC, he was criticized for signing Arroyo to the extension, by some. The Harang deal was well received by most.

I do agree with you re: the relievers, but then again, relief pitching is more expensive these days than it's ever been.

Cant Touch This
03-21-2007, 01:00 PM
My sleeper little-to-no-chance team (e.g. a team I don't much like though they'll be considered a serious contender) is the Tigers.

M2 - interesting. I'm curious as to what you don't like about the Tigers.

dsmith421
03-21-2007, 01:14 PM
I do agree with you re: the relievers, but then again, relief pitching is more expensive these days than it's ever been.

Which in large part is Krivsky's fault for overpaying atrociously for mediocre talent both in free agency and trade.

KronoRed
03-21-2007, 01:17 PM
We'll show we don't belong in that group by winning the division

Always Red
03-21-2007, 01:43 PM
Which in large part is Krivsky's fault for overpaying atrociously for mediocre talent both in free agency and trade.

I pretty sure Krivsky is not alone in "overpaying atrociously" for mediocre talent. It goes on throughout baseball.

One man's mediocre talent is another man's necessity for middle relief pitching.

I'm not totally sold on Krivsky's skills as a GM yet, but I have to disagree with you if you're implying that the astronomical cost of non-closer relief pitching is "in large part" his fault.

He's one of 30 GM's. Regardless of whether you and I agree that Cormier, Stanton and Weathers are not worth what they are getting paid, there is probably another team out there who would have paid for them, if not the exact amount that WK ponied up, then something close to it.

Alex Rodriguez signed a $250 million, 10 year contract in 2000. He's being grossly overpaid by any definition, and yet no one has signed a contract that big since then, have they?:dunno:

REDREAD
03-21-2007, 01:49 PM
Harang and Arroyo as anchors at the front of this rotation are the reason that Verducci is so off the reservation by including them in that list. No, I don't think the Reds will win the division, but do I think they could surprise me and make a run? Sure. And mostly because of the horses at the top. If those two come through again, it is a nice head start on competence...

The key will be what happens when Harang and Arroyo aren't pitching.

We've got a couple young guys in the bullpen with potential to step up, but it's far from a sure thing. Lohse and Milton are more likely to be disasters than solid contributors. Sarloos has a chance to be a decent innings eater (I liked that move, even if it doesn't pan out).

The offense is weak. If Jr is hurt or Dunn is slumping, we are really going to struggle to score runs. I'm not saying that it's a given that Dunn will slump or Jr will get hurt, but it shows how shallow the offense is.

It's hard to play above .500 ball with a weak offense and shaky pen, even if you do have two solid starting pitchers. Not impossible, but difficult.

pedro
03-21-2007, 01:50 PM
I pretty sure Krivsky is not alone in "overpaying atrociously" for mediocre talent. It goes on throughout baseball.

One man's mediocre talent is another man's necessity for middle relief pitching.

I'm not totally sold on Krivsky's skills as a GM yet, but I have to disagree with you if you're implying that the astronomical cost of non-closer relief pitching is
"in large part" his fault.

He's one of 30 GM's. Regardless of whether you and I agree that Cormier, Stanton and Weathers are not worth what they are getting paid, there is probably another team out there who would have paid for them, if not the exact amount that WK ponied up, then something close to it.

Alex Rodriguez signed a $250 million, 10 year contract in 2000. He's being grossly overpaid by any definition, and yet no one has signed a contract that big since then, have they?:dunno:

Good post.

Steve Stone claimed that the Harang contract was driving up the market.

REDREAD
03-21-2007, 01:55 PM
So far, Wayne Krivsky's not making friends. "He's signing guys no one wants and pushing the bar up." I can't print the rest of the quote from an NL official.



Can't say I disagree with this assessment of Wayne's offseason. His strategy seemed to be to acquire quanity instead of quality.. much like his frequent attempts to fix the pen last season.

Other than the Sarloos trade, I'd rather Wayne overpaid for someone good, even if he had to overpay the guy 3 million/year. That would've been better than collecting players no one else wanted. Sure, Toronto was interested in Gonzales because they also had a hole at SS and were desparate like Wayne, but Gonzales wasn't exactly a hot commodity.

Strikes Out Looking
03-21-2007, 02:00 PM
There is no reason to believe that the Reds will be better than the Cubs this season.

Unless you bring up the curse. ;)

Actually, there is no reason to believe the Cubs will be better than the Reds this season unless you believe paying $100,000 for a Ford Pinto will make it more effective than paying $100 for the same car.

klw
03-21-2007, 02:04 PM
Well here is nicer press. Dyan Perry calls Reds 1 of 10 teams that could surprise. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6591812

Strikes Out Looking
03-21-2007, 02:07 PM
Buck Martinez on XM has also called the Reds his sleeper team this year.

rdiersin
03-21-2007, 02:09 PM
Can't say I disagree with this assessment of Wayne's offseason. His strategy seemed to be to acquire quanity instead of quality.. much like his frequent attempts to fix the pen last season.

Other than the Sarloos trade, I'd rather Wayne overpaid for someone good, even if he had to overpay the guy 3 million/year. That would've been better than collecting players no one else wanted. Sure, Toronto was interested in Gonzales because they also had a hole at SS and were desparate like Wayne, but Gonzales wasn't exactly a hot commodity.


Did he overpay for talent? Probably, but the question is whether or not he overpayed with respect to the market, i.e. would those people have gotten similar deals elsewhere. I have a hard time believing in a world where Gil Meche got the contract he got, that those contracts were the ones driving up the prices on the market.

Gonzalez made 2.7 million last year with the Red Sox, so this year's salary is in line with that, and then it escalates. I find it to be a bit more than what I would like, but it seems reasonably along the lines of other contracts handed out.

M2
03-21-2007, 02:14 PM
M2 - interesting. I'm curious as to what you don't like about the Tigers.

They remind me a lot of the 1986 Royals. I don't like their offense at all. It doesn't find 1B well and I don't expect the power surge from players like Monroe, Thames and Inge to continue. Those guys are all 30 this season and what they did in 2006 smacks of career years rather than as sustainable progress. Beyond that, much of the Tigers' scoring last season was the result of uncanny timing. That won't continue. Texas, greatly due to it's tiny ballpark, has been the only team around able to consistently plate a lot of runs with a generally low OB. Detroit doesn't have the park or the biceps to continue in the vein.

Rogers and Robertson will probably have more balls find holes this year too. Beyond that, near perfect health rarely repeats itself.

Everything went right last year, but I think both the offense and pitching are in for slides and Detroit will be hovering in the .500 neighborhood this season. In the AL Central that could land you in 4th place.

redsmetz
03-21-2007, 02:30 PM
This has been a very interesting thread with some of the best dialogue I've seen around here. Maybe it comes from someone outside our fandom dissing our team, but folks have made good, but realistic, comments about this clubs chances (and I won't argue with slim - but it's not "no chance"!). Great input, folks!

dsmith421
03-21-2007, 04:14 PM
I'm not totally sold on Krivsky's skills as a GM yet, but I have to disagree with you if you're implying that the astronomical cost of non-closer relief pitching is "in large part" his fault.


I think he set the marker out. When you look at previous offseasons it's easy to find closers getting huge deals--BJ Ryan comes to mind easily. But the Reds made the first "blockbuster" trade of the 2006 season and overpaid atrociously for an injured mediocrity and an unproven guy with upside. The trade was immediately panned all over baseball. Other clubs were able to acquire useful parts (Bob Wickman and, frankly, Eddie Guardado) come to mind without any serious outlay of resources.

Then, in the offseason, while other clubs (notably Atlanta) found ways to acquire high-upside relievers the Reds blew a major percentage of their budget on guys like Stanton and Weathers.

So from my perspective, although there have been a lot of clubs that have overpaid for relief pitching, the Reds have been the number one offender over the last nine months or so. The ridiculous market for relief pitching (if it, in fact, exists outside of Cincinnati) as as much Krivsky's fault as any other GM.

harangatang
03-21-2007, 04:18 PM
Please dont bring up being close to the playoffs last year in comparison to us being close. We over acheived last year and the rest of the division sucked. Its not going to be that way again.People just don't get it.

OnBaseMachine
03-21-2007, 06:40 PM
The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.

Always Red
03-21-2007, 07:42 PM
Jon Heyman, on SI.com today (go to page 2):

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/03/21/scoop.wednesday/1.html


Several teams are looking for relief help, among them the Red Sox, Marlins and Phillies, whose bullpen may prevent them from reaching what Jimmy Rollins sees as their first-place destiny. And it isn't going to be easy to find relievers. As one GM put it, "No one's pitching looks great. A lot of guys are getting the ... kicked out of them."

That in mind, it's going to be disappointing to hear that Padres reliever Scott Linebrink, who seems permanently on the block, is probably staying put in San Diego. And even Armando Benitez may remain in San Francisco, as well.

The Red Sox have been scouting Derrick Turnbow, Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge and Linebrink in a huge sellers' market for pitching. Boston and San Diego make a lot of trades, but it seems like the longer the Padres hold Linebrink, the more his value rises. And that's despite some so-so spring outings and whispers about past back pain.

The moral of this story is that maybe the Orioles were the smart ones by stockpiling relief pitchers. Chad Bradford for $10.5 million over three years looks like the steal of the winter right now.

The relief market is such that the ever erratic Jorge Julio is looking pretty attractive right now. Oh yes, the Diamondbacks' Julio is one we expect will be dealt.

If Chad Bradford (a middle reliever thus far in his career) is a bargain at $3.5 million a year, then just maybe the Reds are dealing from a position of relative strength in a very weak market, and can unload one or two of the "Crusty Boys" (per Natty Redlocks), inorder to recoup some of that $ spent on them, as well as make room for the younger, better guys like Salmon, Burton and Coutlangus? Cormier back to the Phils sounds like a good idea to me...

vaticanplum
03-21-2007, 08:24 PM
The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.

OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

paintmered
03-21-2007, 08:28 PM
OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

He's no Debbie Downer any more.

KronoRed
03-21-2007, 09:09 PM
Nope, but I have to wonder....pod people anyone? ;)

FlyingPig
03-21-2007, 09:32 PM
Pre season predictions mean nothing to me..

How many "experts" figured Detroit to be a World Series team last year?

OnBaseMachine
03-21-2007, 09:34 PM
OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

:laugh:

REDREAD
03-21-2007, 11:20 PM
Did he overpay for talent? Probably, but the question is whether or not he overpayed with respect to the market, i.e. would those people have gotten similar deals elsewhere. I have a hard time believing in a world where Gil Meche got the contract he got, that those contracts were the ones driving up the prices on the market.

Gonzalez made 2.7 million last year with the Red Sox, so this year's salary is in line with that, and then it escalates. I find it to be a bit more than what I would like, but it seems reasonably along the lines of other contracts handed out.

I would've prefered to get players that have a shot at making a difference. There's no upside in Gonzo, Conine, Castro, and all the old relief pitchers. We just are crossing our fingers and hoping they are adequate for the length of their contracts, and it's not a very good bet, IMO.

Wayne had over 30 million to allocate this offseason, and the best acquision he made was Sarloos. That's a crime. When you have that much money to spend, it should be easy to add real talent. And I don't want to hear excuses. Other teams managed to add talent this past offseason in the same market.

pedro
03-21-2007, 11:25 PM
The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.


That's good to hear OBM. I think things are more pleasant too, which is enough for me right now, although I understand other POV's as well.

Reds Fanatic
03-22-2007, 12:08 AM
Apparently no one at SI likes this Reds team. Their season preview is out. They pick the Reds last in the division and rank them 27th out of 30 teams. The only teams they rank lower are Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Washington. Maybe I am overly optimistic but that ranking is ridiculously low.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2007/previews/index.html

kaldaniels
03-22-2007, 12:55 AM
Apparently no one at SI likes this Reds team. Their season preview is out. They pick the Reds last in the division and rank them 27th out of 30 teams. The only teams they rank lower are Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Washington. Maybe I am overly optimistic but that ranking is ridiculously low.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2007/previews/index.html

Now I'm sure he wasn't responsible for the 27th place ranking, but one interesting fact...did you see who wrote the Reds preview for SI...none other than long time baseball scribe Mr. Peter King!!! (Who does have history in Cincy of course FYI)

Ltlabner
03-22-2007, 06:40 AM
I guess I'm in the same boat as a lot of you folks. I think we've improved from dreadfull to mearly mediocre. While that isn't very sexy it is most definatley an improvement.

Will we catch the luck of all the other teams trying to not win the division so we'll stay in the hunt with a mediocre record? Remains to be seen. For all the love and adulation they get, I don't think St Louis has really improved significantly. Houston has zero offense and rotation issues. The Brewers might remain a thorn in our sides, but not anybody elses. Pirates are what they are.

The Cubs are the big question. Will they get 1990 and Flordia Marlins Lou or the Seatle Lou who could do nothing with a bunch of tallent? Will all of that money spent translate into winning baseball or just a spectacular mess? Will Zambrano explode (mentally and/or physically). Will injuries decimate them again? If everything goes right they could end up being monsters. If things go the way they usually go for the Cubs people will be rediculing all the money they spent for years.

redsmetz
03-22-2007, 08:44 AM
I would've prefered to get players that have a shot at making a difference. There's no upside in Gonzo, Conine, Castro, and all the old relief pitchers. We just are crossing our fingers and hoping they are adequate for the length of their contracts, and it's not a very good bet, IMO.

Wayne had over 30 million to allocate this offseason, and the best acquision he made was Sarloos. That's a crime. When you have that much money to spend, it should be easy to add real talent. And I don't want to hear excuses. Other teams managed to add talent this past offseason in the same market.

This is such an incomplete analysis of the off-season, frankly. The only people who are down on the Gonzo acquisition seem to reside here at Redszone. If nothing else, his defense will make this team a better team. And I hear no one (other than here) suggest that he's not an upgrade in an area we were fairly weak - defense. Any offense from him is pure gravy.

Conine and Castro and the elder relievers to me are nothing more than chess pieces. They're here now, they may be gone before season's end. They give us cogs to work with - nothing more. Conine and Castro are back ups and we'll see how that plays out.

Saarloos the only worthwhile actions by WK? That overlooks both Rule 5 pickups, Hamilton and Burton. I think there's a good chance both make this club. And you cannot discount the extensions on both Harrang and Arroyo. Those go a long way towards making this club competitive for several years.

And the biggest thing Wayne's done is he hasn't sacrificed the future in making the club nominally competitive this year. We still have all of our core minor leaguers - that cannot be discounted, IMO.

I'm not all sunshine and roses on the Reds this year. I've repeatedly said that they're working on being generally competitive in '07, with an eye towards being very competitive in years to come. Will we win the division this year? Probably not, but it's a wild ride and I think we've got as much a chance as most of the rest of the division. Clearly things have to go right and click on all cylinders, but if they do, this club wins a fair amount of their games.

Always Red
03-22-2007, 09:30 AM
And the biggest thing Wayne's done is he hasn't sacrificed the future in making the club nominally competitive this year. We still have all of our core minor leaguers - that cannot be discounted, IMO.



great point :thumbup:

coachw513
03-22-2007, 09:40 AM
I would've prefered to get players that have a shot at making a difference. There's no upside in Gonzo, Conine, Castro, and all the old relief pitchers. We just are crossing our fingers and hoping they are adequate for the length of their contracts, and it's not a very good bet, IMO.

Wayne had over 30 million to allocate this offseason, and the best acquision he made was Sarloos. That's a crime. When you have that much money to spend, it should be easy to add real talent. And I don't want to hear excuses. Other teams managed to add talent this past offseason in the same market.

I guess I have 2 thoughts...first, who were the difference makers in this year's market???...and next, the best $$ was spent on Harang and Arroyo, guys that if they were on the market this past offseason would've made out like bandits...Stanton and Cormier look like $$ wasted moreso now because WK made the move to get Burton and got Hermanson (FWIW) for a song...

I still say if we look at the 25 and 40-man rosters from today and 1 year ago today, we'd be hard pressed not to feel WK has done a very good job upgrading our personnel...it hasn't been "flashy" but I don't think it ever will be "flashy" in Cincinnati with our relative resources...

Just MHO...

coachw513
03-22-2007, 09:49 AM
Conine and Castro and the elder relievers to me are nothing more than chess pieces. They're here now, they may be gone before season's end. They give us cogs to work with - nothing more. Conine and Castro are back ups and we'll see how that plays out.


Much like Joe Randa was a great pickup a couple of years ago until Encarnacion was ready, plus he got us Germano and Chick which got us Cormier and Guardado...no one thought Randa made any sense, then he went out and played really well and now we have a couple of aging, hurt relief pitchers to show for it...

Hmm, what was my point again??? ;)

redsmetz
03-22-2007, 10:23 AM
Much like Joe Randa was a great pickup a couple of years ago until Encarnacion was ready, plus he got us Germano and Chick which got us Cormier and Guardado...no one thought Randa made any sense, then he went out and played really well and now we have a couple of aging, hurt relief pitchers to show for it...

Hmm, what was my point again??? ;)

But I think this is all part of the process. Guardado may well be servicable for us later in the year, and I think the extension was given to Cormier, first to get him to waive his no-trade clause, but also because he will be moveable. The same is true of the two year deals given to Weathers and Stanton, IMO. He's structured other contracts in ways they aren't lasting, but rather servicable (see Hatteberg's one year deal with a Club option. Conine's on a one year deal. Either of the two 1st sackers could be moved during the season should Votto tear up AAA. I think he's set us up nicely to make further moves, even if its only to pick up minor league chips (which still needs some bolster - those type moves can turn into EE's and such).

kaldaniels
04-05-2007, 12:18 AM
I actually just posted this in the wrong thread.

And Verducci Backpedals....
Thank you very much Ryan Limke from Lima Ohio.

Are my beloved Reds really a team that can't make the playoffs? I would argue they're much closer to a "franchise turnaround" than other teams you mentioned.
-- Ryan Limke, Cincinnati, Ohio

I actually think the Pirates are in the "can't-make-it" category, not the Reds. It's a longshot, but the Reds, who have a hard time surviving that bullpen in that ballpark, do have a shot because of that division.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/tom_verducci/04/04/weekone.mailbag/1.html

smith288
04-05-2007, 10:17 AM
I also believe the Reds dont stand a chance this year. They could over achieve, yes. But on paper, they stink. Not as bad as the Pirates, but after Harang and Arroyo... meh. The offense, its better than average but our pitching staff still stinks.

Im not expecting much more than a nice Josh Hamilton story and Harang getting more recognition this year.

Call me Debbie Downer