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View Full Version : Some good luck for Deno??



coachw513
03-21-2007, 09:22 PM
From Reds.com:


Injury report: Outfielder Norris Hopper is wearing a protective boot on the right heel he bruised in Monday's game. Hopper isn't expected to be available until next week, which could benefit reserve outfield candidates Chris Denorfia and Bubba Crosby, or others fighting for the 25th man spot.

Crosby, who hasn't played since Thursday because of a minor strain of his left calf, was expected to get an at-bat in a Minor League game on Wednesday.

Not that Hopper would have made the 25 man roster, but with he and Crosby hurting, that many more AB's for Denorfia (though he already leads the team in AB's this spring) and he seems to be hitting the ball better lately...

Burton's emergence allowing for an extra pitcher is countered by a probable 5th starter beginning season in Louisville...so with 6 reserve spots available instead of 5 and with Griffey still unavailable AND with Narron's quoted reservations about having nothing but LH reserve OF and I can see the door cracking open a bit more...

Castro, Conine, Hamilton, Valentin, Moeller and Denorfia off the bench...I'm one who is okay with 3 catchers since we've labeled Valentin the PH deluxe (I take umbrage at that point more than the 3rd catcher debate)

I still see a deal for a team needing relievers :pray: WK has been strangely silent in recent days IMHO...

BRM
03-21-2007, 09:41 PM
Castro, Conine, Hamilton, Valentin, Moeller and Denorfia off the bench...I'm one who is okay with 3 catchers since we've labeled Valentin the PH deluxe (I take umbrage at that point more than the 3rd catcher debate)


That is one extremely weak bench. Maybe the weakest in the NL.

Spike
03-21-2007, 10:02 PM
That is one extremely weak bench. Maybe the weakest in the NL.


How so? Maybe Moeller, but the rest are adequate. Even Castro had like a .286 average last year (and I believe higher with runners in scoring position). The only other problem with that bench is a lack of power, and that Denorfia is on it to begin with and not in the starting fold.

coachw513
03-21-2007, 10:53 PM
That is one extremely weak bench. Maybe the weakest in the NL.

Compared to ?? :confused:

Castro, Hamilton, Deno and Moeller all are very good defensively (per all accounts) :thumbup:

Hamilton, Deno and Castro give us decent PR speed as necessary

Many have appointed Hamilton and Deno as capable starters, what's wrong with them being here??

It does give a good blend of youth and (I hate to say it) veteran experience...

Conine, Valentin and Hamilton have HR potential

I don't remember our '90 club or the BRM teams (or any other of our good clubs) having benches that were the special component of the club (well, that wouldn't include Johnny :D )

I don't want Narron to run out this as a Sunday Special, but that's a lineup problem, not a bench problem IMHO...

I guess I need a comparative component to see why we are so lacking...

Patrick Bateman
03-21-2007, 11:37 PM
How so? Maybe Moeller, but the rest are adequate. Even Castro had like a .286 average last year (and I believe higher with runners in scoring position). The only other problem with that bench is a lack of power, and that Denorfia is on it to begin with and not in the starting fold.

Castro is a bad, bad hitter. We have years of evidence. Having a good batting average in a hnadful of at-bats does not even begin to state the opposite. He is one of the league's worst batters.

Not to mention that he has little speed and is very overrated defensively, and you have one of the worst players in the majors on the bench IMO. I don't even want to get into the 2 year deal he received.

coachw513
03-21-2007, 11:56 PM
Castro is a bad, bad hitter. We have years of evidence. Having a good batting average in a hnadful of at-bats does not even begin to state the opposite. He is one of the league's worst batters.

Last year Castro hit .385 for the Reds with RISP, including .429 with 2 outs...

While we digest that, I'll add that Eric Milton hit .400 with RISP, including a perfect 3-3 with less than 2 outs...

Maybe we've been thinking about this all wrong...Milton adds to our bench strength :laugh:

Gainesville Red
03-22-2007, 12:05 AM
While we digest that, I'll add that Eric Milton hit .400 with RISP, including a perfect 3-3 with less than 2 outs...
Maybe we've been thinking about this all wrong...Milton adds to our bench strength :laugh:

We should give him a new multi-year contract.

Caveat Emperor
03-22-2007, 12:12 AM
I think Denorfia will make the team out of spring training, but I doubt he'll stick with the club once Griffey comes back from the DL -- he has options and unless the team realizes they need to cut on Jeff Conine or deals Ryan Freel, I don't see him sitting around as a 3rd OF fighting Josh Hamilton for PT and ABs.

Patrick Bateman
03-22-2007, 12:54 AM
Last year Castro hit .385 for the Reds with RISP, including .429 with 2 outs...





Castro had an OPS of .632 last season. A career .612 OPS. Here's a look at his career "clutch stats".


Clutch Stats


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
2 outs, RISP 232 269 248 57 11 2 8 71 21 6 47 0 0 0 4 0 .230 .290 .387 .677
Late & Close 300 383 347 68 9 2 4 28 16 0 76 0 18 2 7 5 .196 .230 .268 .498
Tie Game 337 513 473 105 26 1 4 34 25 2 85 0 13 2 9 15 .222 .260 .307 .567
Within 1 R 533 1063 970 215 48 3 17 86 56 4 178 0 32 5 16 31 .222 .263 .330 .593
Within 2 R 604 1441 1323 300 64 5 19 106 74 6 219 0 38 6 19 46 .227 .267 .326 .593
Within 3 R 651 1705 1565 347 72 7 22 128 89 7 262 0 43 8 19 54 .222 .262 .319 .581
Within 4 R 674 1908 1755 392 80 8 23 138 100 7 299 0 43 10 20 55 .223 .264 .317 .581
Margin > 4 R 237 390 367 102 23 5 10 52 19 0 72 0 0 4 3 11 .278 .310 .450 .760



Bases Occupied


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
RISP 407 550 480 120 25 5 11 156 35 7 94 0 21 14 11 22 .250 .293 .392 .685
--- 653 1318 1249 271 61 5 16 16 69 0 216 0 0 0 10 0 .217 .258 .312 .570
1-- 329 430 393 103 17 3 6 18 15 0 61 0 22 0 2 44 .262 .289 .366 .655
-2- 182 198 169 48 8 1 2 34 18 3 18 0 11 0 5 1 .284 .353 .379 .732
--3 68 71 60 16 2 1 4 28 5 2 18 0 2 4 0 1 .267 .304 .533 .837
12- 125 139 128 33 9 2 1 29 4 0 23 0 7 0 3 14 .258 .280 .383 .663
1-3 52 54 47 9 0 0 4 25 2 0 9 0 1 4 2 3 .191 .208 .447 .655
-23 39 40 34 7 3 1 0 18 5 2 15 0 0 1 0 0 .206 .300 .353 .653
123 46 48 42 7 3 0 0 22 1 0 11 0 0 5 1 3 .167 .167 .238 .405

He does seem to be a little better with RISP, but we are talking about a .685 OPS. That is awful either way, and that is Castro at his best. He is a very, very bad hitter.

Why does 50 at-bats cancel out what he has done in his whole career. Did he really suddenly learn to hit with the Reds last season, especially in the clutch. Considering how putrid he was with the Twins last season, I'm guessing not.

Based on what he did last season, and his entire career, we should have reasonable expectations that Castro is going to be one of the worst hitters in the majors this season. A select few at-bats does not change that, and only creates a mirage. Small sample sizes rarely lead to the right answer, and at this point, Castro's abilities should be as clear as day.

coachw513
03-22-2007, 01:08 AM
Um, I figured when following up with the Milton stats that you would see my sarcasm :rolleyes:

Though I am not quite as full of dirision for Castro that others are...

Patrick Bateman
03-22-2007, 01:09 AM
Um, I figured when following up with the Milton stats that you would see my sarcasm :rolleyes:

Though I am not quite as full of dirision for Castro that others are...

Sorry, those looked unrelated to me. I thought you were just throwing those in there. I aslo thought you were trying to make a case for Castro based on his fielding/speed (although not his hitting), so I thought that was part of your argument. Apologies.

knuckler
03-22-2007, 01:41 AM
...I also thought you were trying to make a case for Castro based on his fielding/speed... .


Castro has speed? I thought he had good speed for a catcher maybe, but that's about all.

MaineRed
03-22-2007, 09:06 AM
I don't remember our '90 club or the BRM teams (or any other of our good clubs) having benches that were the special component of the club

That 1990 bench had Dewayne Wise (Herm Winningham), Chad Moeller (Jeff Reed) and Juan Castro (Luis Quinnones).

Outside of Hal Morris hitting .340 in over 300 ABs that 1990 bench stunk. But they came through when it counted. Other notables were Ron Oester, Glenn Braggs, Ken Griffey and Bill Doran.

Highlifeman21
03-22-2007, 10:39 AM
How so? Maybe Moeller, but the rest are adequate. Even Castro had like a .286 average last year (and I believe higher with runners in scoring position). The only other problem with that bench is a lack of power, and that Denorfia is on it to begin with and not in the starting fold.

Awesome, an argument with AVG w/ RISP.

For Juan freakin Castro....

Hamilton and Denorfia will be the only positive contributions to our bench.

The sad part is that neither of those two should be on the bench.

BRM
03-22-2007, 11:09 AM
Hamilton and Denorfia will be the only positive contributions to our bench.


That's my opinion as well and the only contribution I expect from Hamilton is defense and pinch-running. I hope he continues to hit like he has this spring but I am certainly not counting on it. Maybe this isn't the weakest bench but it is definitely weak. Moeller and Castro are two of the worst hitters in the majors.

Patrick Bateman
03-22-2007, 01:08 PM
Castro has speed? I thought he had good speed for a catcher maybe, but that's about all.

I never said he has speed. I simply said that that coach seemed to be arguing that Castro would help the bench thanks in part to his speed (which I disagreed with).

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 01:10 PM
Castro has speed? I thought he had good speed for a catcher maybe, but that's about all.

Castro is much slower than he looks like he would be. I'd say he might outrun Valentin, maybe, but that's about it. Maybe Ross.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 01:12 PM
From Reds.com:

Not that Hopper would have made the 25 man roster, but with he and Crosby hurting, that many more AB's for Denorfia (though he already leads the team in AB's this spring) and he seems to be hitting the ball better lately...

Burton's emergence allowing for an extra pitcher is countered by a probable 5th starter beginning season in Louisville...so with 6 reserve spots available instead of 5 and with Griffey still unavailable AND with Narron's quoted reservations about having nothing but LH reserve OF and I can see the door cracking open a bit more...

Castro, Conine, Hamilton, Valentin, Moeller and Denorfia off the bench...I'm one who is okay with 3 catchers since we've labeled Valentin the PH deluxe (I take umbrage at that point more than the 3rd catcher debate)

I still see a deal for a team needing relievers :pray: WK has been strangely silent in recent days IMHO...

Because of his options remaining, Denorfia's only making the team if both Hopper and Crosby are hurt on April 1.

BRM
03-22-2007, 01:13 PM
Because of his options remaining, Denorfia's only making the team if both Hopper and Crosby are hurt on April 1.

That's just crazy talk.

edabbs44
03-22-2007, 01:17 PM
Because of his options remaining, Denorfia's only making the team if both Hopper and Crosby are hurt on April 1.

And that's why you have to believe that management has no hopes for this season.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 01:30 PM
And that's why you have to believe that management has no hopes for this season.

Uh... no. That's silly.

Every team plays the options game. It's part of baseball and it will continue until the rules change.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 01:31 PM
That's just crazy talk.

Well, maybe I should try and contact local resident Tonya Harding to see if she knows someone who might be able to help our friend Deno out a bit.

BRM
03-22-2007, 01:32 PM
Well, maybe I should try and contact local resident Tonya Harding to see if she knows someone who might be able to help our friend Deno out a bit.

:laugh:

It's just sad to think Hopper or Crosby could make the team over Denorfia. I understand how they could but it's still sad.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 01:37 PM
:laugh:

It's just sad to think Hopper or Crosby could make the team over Denorfia. I understand how they could but it's still sad.

Hopper's not beating out Crosby either. Like Salmon, he can be jerked around at the Reds' leisure for awhile-through 2008 if they want. (If the club leaves either man in AAA for a whole season without bringing them up and sending them back down, I believe they could ask for their release or exercise the common minor-league vet out clause, but they'll stay as long as they have the chance to get called up.)

BRM
03-22-2007, 01:39 PM
Crosby spent some time in AAA last year. Was 2006 his last option year or was that just an injury rehab assignment for him?

KronoRed
03-22-2007, 02:09 PM
And that's why you have to believe that management has no hopes for this season.

Nah, but it does say they don't see much difference between the three and that's just baffling.

The_jbh
03-22-2007, 03:34 PM
Castro isn't in there to hit... he's a defensive sub.

Valentin Deno and Hamilton are all potential starters.

Conine/Hatteburg are decent hitters off the bench...


The bench is really not THAT bad. Remember Freel is a sub a lot. Im sure Deno and Hamilton will get their share of time CF

I by no means think we have the best bench in the NL but we have power, defense, and speed there.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 03:39 PM
Crosby spent some time in AAA last year. Was 2006 his last option year or was that just an injury rehab assignment for him?

Crosby was DFAed in August last season and then outrighted to AAA. If he'd had an option year remaining the Yankees wouldn't have needed to outright him.

I'm pretty sure his option years were 2003, 2004, and 2005.

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?3929

BRM
03-22-2007, 03:41 PM
Crosby was DFAed in August last season and then outrighted to AAA. If he'd had an option year remaining the Yankees wouldn't have needed to outright him.

I'm pretty sure his option years were 2003, 2004, and 2005.

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?3929

OK, thanks. So odds are he would clear waivers again if the Reds choose to go that route.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 03:41 PM
Castro isn't in there to hit... he's a defensive sub.

Valentin Deno and Hamilton are all potential starters.

Conine/Hatteburg are decent hitters off the bench...


The bench is really not THAT bad. Remember Freel is a sub a lot. Im sure Deno and Hamilton will get their share of time CF

I by no means think we have the best bench in the NL but we have power, defense, and speed there.

The bench isn't going to be as bad as it was under Bob Boone, at least.

The real problem is if they keep three catchers *and* twelve pitchers. That's a very, very bad way to construct a National League roster.

Doc. Scott
03-22-2007, 03:43 PM
OK, thanks. So odds are he would clear waivers again if the Reds choose to go that route.

Maybe. I don't think he can refuse an AAA assignment if he does clear (lacking five years of big-league service time), but his defensive reputation is sufficiently good to draw interest as a fifth outfielder from other clubs.

BRM
03-22-2007, 03:43 PM
The bench isn't going to be as bad as it was under Bob Boone, at least.

The real problem is if they keep three catchers *and* twelve pitchers. That's a very, very bad way to construct a National League roster.

12 pitchers and 3 catchers makes it a bad bench simply due to lack of depth.

Big Klu
03-22-2007, 04:10 PM
That 1990 bench had Dewayne Wise (Herm Winningham), Chad Moeller (Jeff Reed) and Juan Castro (Luis Quinnones).

Outside of Hal Morris hitting .340 in over 300 ABs that 1990 bench stunk. But they came through when it counted. Other notables were Ron Oester, Glenn Braggs, Ken Griffey and Bill Doran.


RedsZone would have suffered a meltdown if it had been around during 1990. I'm sure most people would have thought that Lou was using his bench players way too much.

4256 Hits
03-23-2007, 12:40 AM
Uh... no. That's silly.

Every team plays the options game. It's part of baseball and it will continue until the rules change.

But every team doesn't do it to carry a player w/ a .555 career OPS. :bang: :angry: :bang:

Will M
03-23-2007, 01:22 AM
Castro isn't in there to hit... he's a defensive sub.

Valentin Deno and Hamilton are all potential starters.

Conine/Hatteburg are decent hitters off the bench...


The bench is really not THAT bad. Remember Freel is a sub a lot. Im sure Deno and Hamilton will get their share of time CF

I by no means think we have the best bench in the NL but we have power, defense, and speed there.

A bench of Valentin, Conine, Castro, Deno and Hamilton is IMO a good bench.
In fact I think it is one of the better benchs in baseball.

KronoRed
03-23-2007, 02:56 AM
But every team doesn't do it to carry a player w/ a .555 career OPS. :bang: :angry: :bang:

That's a scrappy .555 :thumbup:

dougdirt
03-23-2007, 03:04 AM
That's a crappy .555 :thumbup:

There, I fixed your typo for ya.:thumbup:

Eric_Davis
03-23-2007, 04:06 AM
Those stats show just how consistently horrible Castro is. God, I hope he doesn't get any more at-bats as a RED. There has to be a release of someone who's better in the next 10 days.

Doc. Scott
03-23-2007, 04:08 AM
A bench of Valentin, Conine, Castro, Deno and Hamilton is IMO a good bench.
In fact I think it is one of the better benchs in baseball.

Yeah, not terrible, at least. Maybe even solid. But I think it's actually going to be Moeller, Valentin/Ross, Castro, Hamilton, and Conine, with 12 pitchers. Crosby makes it if it's eleven pitchers. And if it's those five I just mentioned, Conine becomes a pretty important pinch-hitter.

It sort of all hinges on Jared Burton, oddly enough. And whether or not Griffey starts the season on the DL.

I really hope they get over themselves and go with eleven pitchers. That sixth position player seems to become important more often than the seventh reliever (if you ask me).

BRM
03-23-2007, 10:37 AM
Yeah, not terrible, at least. Maybe even solid. But I think it's actually going to be Moeller, Valentin/Ross, Castro, Hamilton, and Conine, with 12 pitchers. Crosby makes it if it's eleven pitchers. And if it's those five I just mentioned, Conine becomes a pretty important pinch-hitter.


That leaves one decent and/or reliable hitter on the bench, Conine. And only one guy with any speed, Hamilton. That's not all that solid to me. Granted, there is good defense there in Hamilton and to a lesser extent Castro. Carrying 12 pitchers pretty much kills the bench. Going with 11 pitchers and adding Crosby doesn't do much either other than adding another defensive outfielder to go with Hamilton.

KronoRed
03-23-2007, 02:50 PM
There, I fixed your typo for ya.:thumbup:

Thanks :laugh:

Highlifeman21
03-23-2007, 07:01 PM
Maybe. I don't think he can refuse an AAA assignment if he does clear (lacking five years of big-league service time), but his defensive reputation is sufficiently good to draw interest as a fifth outfielder from other clubs.

By all means, let's put Bubba freakin Crosby on waivers and see if some poor teams wants him for a 5th OF.

We definitely don't need him as a 5th OF.

Doc. Scott
03-23-2007, 07:03 PM
By all means, let's put Bubba freakin Crosby on waivers and see if some poor teams wants him for a 5th OF.

We definitely don't need him as a 5th OF.

Well, I doubt Krivsky gave him a big-league deal so he could be put on waivers in spring training. Who knows... maybe he did. But probably not.

He's this year's model of Quinton McCracken- he'll make the team and play himself off it. Then the guys who had options will get their shots midyear.

Highlifeman21
03-23-2007, 07:25 PM
Well, I doubt Krivsky gave him a big-league deal so he could be put on waivers in spring training. Who knows... maybe he did. But probably not.

He's this year's model of Quinton McCracken- he'll make the team and play himself off it. Then the guys who had options will get their shots midyear.

Because the last thing the Reds ever need are more versions of Quinton McCrackens....

Personel decisions like that are what's keeping the Reds from being a competitive team.

Put your best 25 out there. It shouldn't be a hard concept, but for some reason it is with the Reds.

Heck, they can't even put their best 8 position players on the field. Why should I have any hope that the Reds could figure out their best 25?

Patrick Bateman
03-23-2007, 08:09 PM
Personel decisions like that are what's keeping the Reds from being a competitive team.


No way. 1st time I have heard the bench as the reason as to why the Reds continuously fail. It's a very small part of the problem.

DocScott has a good point. It's not just the Reds that make these types of moves. When every team makes out their remianing spots, things like options are considered to ensure decent depth. Some dumb decisions are made because of it, but in the end, I'm sure if Denorfia keeps hitting he will get his turn. In the end, the 24th/25th man moves shouldn't hurt a whole lot, and they usually resolve themselves in the end.

Highlifeman21
03-23-2007, 08:46 PM
No way. 1st time I have heard the bench as the reason as to why the Reds continuously fail. It's a very small part of the problem.

DocScott has a good point. It's not just the Reds that make these types of moves. When every team makes out their remianing spots, things like options are considered to ensure decent depth. Some dumb decisions are made because of it, but in the end, I'm sure if Denorfia keeps hitting he will get his turn. In the end, the 24th/25th man moves shouldn't hurt a whole lot, and they usually resolve themselves in the end.

I'm not talking about the bench.

I'm talking about putting our best 8 out there. Jerry Narron is incapable of putting our best 8 out there, and until he does so, the Reds will continue to not even remotely sniff being competitive.

The Reds have guys on their bench who should start, yet don't, thanks to Jerry Narron. The Reds have guys starting who have zero business finding themselves in the starting lineup, thanks to Jerry Narron.

Jerry Narron, the gift that keeps on giving.