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OnBaseMachine
03-24-2007, 05:28 PM
Now that most of us have witnessed Adam Dunn's new hitting approach (i.e. going back to what made him a superstar prospect), read about it, or heard about it from the announcers, what are your feelings on Adam Dunn now? Do you think he will turn into the player we all thought he would be when he first arrived (perennial 1.000+ OPS guy) or will he still be the same Adam Dunn (still a great hitter).

My opinion is as follows: It's only a small sample size but he definitely looks like a different Adam Dunn than we have seen over the last three or four years. He's dropped weight. He's hitting the ball to the opposite field like he did in the minors, and he seems like he had a plan on every pitch now. The last few years he's been pull happy thanks to some bad advice given to him, but now he is simply hitting the ball where its pitched. He looks great. I made a comment in the game thread today that I thought he was poised for a MVP type season and I fully believe that. There's no doubt he has the talent to do it.

If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average. I would say somewhere in the .280 area, give or take a few points. You know Dunn will get his yearly 110-120 walks which boosts the OBP well over .400. Dunn is also in much better shape this season, which should help him stay fresh toward the end of the season and eliminate those awful end of the season slumps he went through the last two seasons. With that said, here is my 2007 prediction for Adam Dunn:

.275-.280 BA/.415 OBP/.610 SLG

54 homeruns and 130 walks - both Reds franchise records

Falls City Beer
03-24-2007, 05:46 PM
I'll say he puts up numbers right in line with his career norms. That is to say, very, very good numbers that people complain about.

jojo
03-24-2007, 05:46 PM
Now that most of us have witnessed Adam Dunn's new hitting approach (i.e. going back to what made him a superstar prospect), read about it, or heard about it from the announcers, what are your feelings on Adam Dunn now? Do you think he will turn into the player we all thought he would be when he first arrived (perennial 1.000+ OPS guy) or will he still be the same Adam Dunn (still a great hitter).

My opinion is as follows: It's only a small sample size but he definitely looks like a different Adam Dunn than we have seen over the last three or four years. He's dropped weight. He's hitting the ball to the opposite field like he did in the minors, and he seems like he had a plan on every pitch now. The last few years he's been pull happy thanks to some bad advice given to him, but now he is simply hitting the ball where its pitched. He looks great. I made a comment in the game thread today that I thought he was poised for a MVP type season and I fully believe that. There's no doubt he has the talent to do it.

If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average. I would say somewhere in the .280 area, give or take a few points. You know Dunn will get his yearly 110-120 walks which boosts the OBP well over .400. Dunn is also in much better shape this season, which should help him stay fresh toward the end of the season and eliminate those awful end of the season slumps he went through the last two seasons. With that said, here is my 2007 prediction for Adam Dunn:

.275-.280 BA/.415 OBP/.610 SLG

54 homeruns and 130 walks - both Reds franchise records



wow...you've got him shattering his career bests in every category....

jmac
03-24-2007, 06:34 PM
I am really expecting a 45 hr/120 rbi from him (and hoping for more than that)!

Degenerate39
03-24-2007, 07:37 PM
He'll hit 74 home runs :)

Doesn't hurt to stay optimistic

ND_redsfan10
03-24-2007, 07:47 PM
There's nothing to indicate that this is going to be a career year for Adam, other than the fact that he's having a good spring. But he's a notoriously streak hitter. Sure, several factors will probably cause slight deviation from his three-year average, but he's past the point where a hitter would normally 'take off.' Of course, there are exceptions.

My prediction:

.250, 45, 110

He will probably start the year on an MVP-like tear but the 0-20 streaks to which he is prone will bring his average down over the course of the season.

justincredible
03-24-2007, 07:50 PM
.273/51/117

RedsManRick
03-24-2007, 07:54 PM
.267/48/115

KronoRed
03-24-2007, 08:05 PM
He will lead off in more inning then everyone other then Ryan Freel

jojo
03-24-2007, 08:17 PM
He'll do something like this (.254/.377/.540 w/40 hrs) while playing below average defense and running the bases poorly....

Also, not to point out the obvious about spring training (no its not that ST stats are meaningless) but Dunn hasn't had to face the shift....

KronoRed
03-24-2007, 08:22 PM
Don't know about any other games but her certainly faced it today, unless the 2nd baseman is usually that close to 1st.

tripleaaaron
03-24-2007, 08:26 PM
Im guessing he wil go around:
.267 with 48 HR and 121 RBI

redsfanmia
03-24-2007, 08:42 PM
.212/35/83 with 191 k's

jojo
03-24-2007, 08:44 PM
.212/35/83 with 191 k's

Ouch....guess you're not scouring ebay for game used Dunn items.... :cool:

Bigredfan#1
03-24-2007, 08:56 PM
If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average.

I want it to happen, I have him in a Fantasy league and I am a big red's fan. I don't want to get too excited though until he takes it to the regular season. He did the same thing a few years ago, cut down on his swing and was on fire in the spring, when the regular season started he went back to his old ways.

I don't disagree in what he can do, could be a monster but I want to see it when it counts.

jmac
03-24-2007, 09:29 PM
There's nothing to indicate that this is going to be a career year for Adam, other than the fact that he's having a good spring. But he's a notoriously streak hitter. Sure, several factors will probably cause slight deviation from his three-year average, but he's past the point where a hitter would normally 'take off.' Of course, there are exceptions.

My prediction:

.250, 45, 110

He will probably start the year on an MVP-like tear but the 0-20 streaks to which he is prone will bring his average down over the course of the season.

The one thing I have noticed is Dunn has changed his hitting stance slightly with the hands lowered and not coiled back behind his head as much.
Whether this will make or is making the difference I dont know but it is a subtle little change.

pedro
03-24-2007, 09:44 PM
I think he's going to have the best year of his career.

membengal
03-24-2007, 09:58 PM
Trying to figure out what impact Narron batting Dunn sixth will have on his numbers...

mth123
03-24-2007, 10:04 PM
I think he's going to have the best year of his career.

I do too. RedsManRick had it about right I think - .267/48/115. I'd add about a .550 Slugging % and a .420 OBP. He'd hit more HR, but I think in this line-up, he'll lead the league in IBB.

geniusMoment
03-24-2007, 10:07 PM
Dunner is going to prove all the doubters wrong this year:

.281/51/129

Dracodave
03-24-2007, 10:20 PM
Two things..

1)If he sacrifices power for average, you are all way off on the homeruns.
2)if they shift on him, and he still cant adjust, you are all way off.


With that said.

.271/39/110


As said he sac's off some power for the average, opposite way hits if he can adjust to the shift and even more than that..his rbi total is way off even on mine..

its too dependent to predict.

mth123
03-24-2007, 10:26 PM
Two things..

1)If he sacrifices power for average, you are all way off on the homeruns.
2)if they shift on him, and he still cant adjust, you are all way off.


With that said.

.271/39/110


As said he sac's off some power for the average, opposite way hits if he can adjust to the shift and even more than that..his rbi total is way off even on mine..

its too dependent to predict.


I'm not sure I agree with this. Dunn has huge power and the ball will go out anyway if he just focuses on hitting it hard where its pitched. He'll probably actually add a few opposite field HRs that were GO to 2B from trying to pull a pitch he shouldn't.

Guys with less power have to make this choice, but it doesn't apply to guys with power like Dunn has. He may not have as many tape measure shots, but that is the only consequence IMO.

Dracodave
03-24-2007, 10:33 PM
Yes but alot of what I said, opposite field lack of power, is adjusting to the shift.

It's a combination of both things. Plus, its just a guess, regardless of right or wrong :p:

Highlifeman21
03-24-2007, 11:55 PM
.260 Avg
110 BB
105 R
115 RBI
42 HR

.385 Obp
.505 Slg

Falls City Beer
03-24-2007, 11:57 PM
.260 Avg
110 Bb
105 R
115 Rbi
42 Hr

.385 Obp
.505 Slg

In other words, roughly his career norms. With a few more RBI thrown in for good measure

Highlifeman21
03-25-2007, 12:09 AM
In other words, roughly his career norms. With a few more RBI thrown in for good measure

Correct.

I think he'll see more pitches to hit this year, and that will translate into more RBI.

I like his career norms.

NastyBoy
03-25-2007, 01:13 AM
It is amazing how $13 million can motivate a person to have a new approach. I predict Dunn will have a big year.

blark11
03-25-2007, 03:16 AM
I also think dunner is going to have a breakout year this year. Not a .300 year but i don't believe a 130 RBI year is out of the question

Maldez
03-25-2007, 05:31 AM
Dunn's going to put up numbers that make some people smile; others whince:

.317/35/130

dabvu2498
03-26-2007, 09:06 AM
Follow-up question for this thred: How good do his numbers have to be for the Reds to exercise the ~ $13 million 2008 option on his contract?

George Anderson
03-26-2007, 09:48 AM
Follow-up question for this thred: How good do his numbers have to be for the Reds to exercise the ~ $13 million 2008 option on his contract?

I would say if he has over 40 Hr's with 100 RBI's then the option would be a no brainer.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:20 AM
I'll say he puts up numbers right in line with his career norms. That is to say, very, very good numbers that people complain about.

:thumbup:

No doubt about that one. Dunn will again be a lightning rod around here again in 2007.

bucksfan2
03-26-2007, 10:27 AM
Two things..

1)If he sacrifices power for average, you are all way off on the homeruns.
2)if they shift on him, and he still cant adjust, you are all way off.


With that said.

.271/39/110


As said he sac's off some power for the average, opposite way hits if he can adjust to the shift and even more than that..his rbi total is way off even on mine..

its too dependent to predict.

If he sacrifices power for average I dont think you are going to see as big of a drop off in hrs as you think. They guy is strong enough to hit it out to all fields. If he starts using the whole field I think you will see his average improve while his hr's stay the same. Does it matter if a ball goes 450 ft or 400 ft? As long as it clears the wall I am happy.
Im looking at something around .280-.290, 45 hrs, and 110 rbi's.

shredda2000
03-26-2007, 10:57 AM
.255/35/101

vaticanplum
03-26-2007, 11:19 AM
I'm not good with numerical predictions, I concur with everybody who says that this will be his best year to date. He's at the right age for it. I think he could have a monster year, actually, and contend for MVP if things go well for the team.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 12:50 PM
.260 Avg
110 BB
105 R
115 RBI
42 HR

.385 Obp
.505 Slg

That's probably about right, although his SLG should be MUCH BIGGER than that if he bats .260 - maybe around .550 or higher.

His CAREER YEAR - including strike-outs - was 2004:

.266 .388 .569 .956 46 102 108(BB) 195(K's)

Yes, when he SET THE RECORD FOR STRIKEOUTS, he also had his CAREER BEST Batting Average and Power Numbers.

He doesn't have to sacrifice Average for Power. That's a misnomer.

If he continues to spray the ball to all fields, his average can go up, no need to sacrifice Power, that will still be there. Just don't try to pull everything, and you can get more HR's and Doubles into Left/Left-Center.

If he can approach those 2004 numbers, he'll be signed to a long-term deal - then I can frame my AutoGraphed Jersey!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Raisor
03-27-2007, 11:40 AM
I hope he strikes out 225 times, just to give some people migrains.

BRM
03-27-2007, 11:43 AM
I hope he strikes out 225 times, just to give some people migrains.

Especially if he hits 50 homers while doing it.

Puffy
03-27-2007, 11:47 AM
I hope he strikes out 225 times, just to give some people migrains.

I stated almost this exact same thing two months ago. Your imitating me is getting annoying.

What I hope for: .278/.411/.597, 53 HR, 118 RBI, 205 K's (so all the K-haters heads explode)

What I expect: .259/.388/.575, 43HR, 103 RBI, 184 K's

Puffy
03-27-2007, 11:48 AM
And, of course:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/916060/raisor.jpg

NastyBoy
03-27-2007, 05:34 PM
I would say if he has over 40 Hr's with 100 RBI's then the option would be a no brainer.

There are few free angents I would rather have for the $13 big ones if that is all you are hoping for.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2007, 05:50 PM
My predictions:

http://www.gizmodo.com/assets/resources/2006/10/zoltar.png

Adam Dunn will take a trip over water.

Adam Dunn will become involved in several challenging new projects that are loaded with great possibilities.

Adam Dunn will meet someone who influences his life in a positive way.

Gunner44
03-27-2007, 05:53 PM
.276 average
54 bombs
137 rbi

And hopefully some better D.

Mario-Rijo
03-28-2007, 06:35 PM
Originally posted by Jmac
The one thing I have noticed is Dunn has changed his hitting stance slightly with the hands lowered and not coiled back behind his head as much.
Whether this will make or is making the difference I dont know but it is a subtle little change.



I think it will make a world of difference, I have been banging on it for a few years now. His hands are not necc. as low as I would have had him go (I always thought McGwire's hand position), but I understand that drastic approaches are for desperate people and Dunn isn't desperate.

That and the fact he is going the other way makes me pretty optimistic. I am one who doesn't like K's, however I understand that he will still K at a higher rate than most (it's not his game to just make contact). But nothing wrong with maximizing your efficiency to it's utmost.

My gut says that now that he has made some adjustments his K rate will now drop every year. Starting with this one which should start snowballing out of the gate.

My only reservation will be that now he will just get walked a ton more because of where he is hitting and whom his bookends will be. Freel and Phillips are not what I had in mind. More like Freel and Hatte/Conine ahead and EE and Jr behind. I am hoping at some point Narron will figure this out. Probably if/when Jr gets hurt and he can then have the freedom to move people down into the 5th hole.

At any rate my predictions will be along these lines:

.278 38 Hr's 123 RBI, 112 Runs, 135 BB's, 166 K's, .405 OBP, .585 slg., .990 ops

NastyBoy
03-29-2007, 01:15 AM
Move over Pujols and Howard, there is a new sheriff in town.

DTCromer
03-29-2007, 07:34 PM
If Adam Dunn acts like defense is part of the game, I'll be happy.

dougdirt
03-29-2007, 07:38 PM
.276 average
54 bombs
137 rbi

And hopefully some better D.

If Adam Dunn does that at the plate, He can do hand stands in the outfield for all I care.

tripleaaaron
03-30-2007, 01:00 AM
Where do we get the idea that an increase in average leads to less homers?
In 2005 when Derek Lee had his break-out campaign he shattered his career batting average and added 14 home runs, he also struck out substantially less.