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View Full Version : What to do about Victor Santos...



Spike
03-24-2007, 11:58 PM
He has never been in my projections for an opening day spot, but Victor Santos, with no publicity, seems to be one of our best pitchers this spring. Carreer-wise, he has shown glimmers, and maybe that is all this spring is. But a 0.00 ERA in 11+ innings, 8 strikeouts and a 0.50 whip is somewhat amazing. He is never talked about, but how do you discount this guy?

mth123
03-25-2007, 12:20 AM
You ask a tough question. I think Santos really is no better or worse than some of the other Rotation candidates on the team. I actually think he looks a lot like Kyle Lohse w/o the $4.2 Million contract. His background says he's not really anyone worth cutting some one with a guaranteed deal for. And he's not some one worth risking a young guy who may be out of options or a Rule 5 guy for. He was signed, I presume, to be insurance at AAA.

Here's the rub. How do you sign a guy to a minor league deal as an NRI, and then when he goes all spring w/o giving up a run, not give him a spot on the roster? How does that impact any future dealings with guys (not just minor league FA, but all players)? It certainly appears that Santos isn't really getting a fair shot if he's sent to minor league camp. Word gets around. I'm guessing that Krivsky is rooting for him to get drubbed at least once before the spring is over.

reds44
03-25-2007, 12:38 AM
If he had any chance at all going into camp of making the team, he should be on the team. However, he is a 30+ year old pitcher, who has bad career numbers.

First of all, if he is going to make the team, it's going to be as a reliever. In his 7 spring appearances, all of them were out of the pen.

Here are his numbers:
11.2 IP
1 W
0 L
5 H
1 BB
8 K
2 SV
0 BS
0.00 ERA
0 R

He hasn't allowed multiple hits in any of his appearances.

The question then becomes has he been padding his stats late in games? Considering he hasn't made any starts, it's certainly a possibilty, but I'm not going to say that's why he has had a good spring.

The problem with Santos is, he has relief expierence. It's very mediocre.

In 66 relief appearances, here are his stats:
93.0 IP
4.94 ERA
97 H
69 Ks
60 BB
6.68 K/9
5.81 BB/9
1.15 K/BB
.269 OPP BA

Not exactly amazing there.

It's an interesting situation, and it's going to come down to numbers. If Majewski starts the year on the DL, his chances would become better.

I personally would like to see Jerry put Santos into some situations earlier in the game in the last week of spring.

Marc D
03-25-2007, 12:41 AM
However, he is a 30+ year old pitcher, who has bad career numbers.



Doesn't that mean he has to make the team?

LoganBuck
03-25-2007, 12:53 AM
Joses Manzinillo says hi!

jojo
03-25-2007, 01:46 AM
He has never been in my projections for an opening day spot, but Victor Santos, with no publicity, seems to be one of our best pitchers this spring. Carreer-wise, he has shown glimmers, and maybe that is all this spring is. But a 0.00 ERA in 11+ innings, 8 strikeouts and a 0.50 whip is somewhat amazing. He is never talked about, but how do you discount this guy?

It's pretty easy.....small sample size against questionable talent levels...

Thats kind of handwaving though, but unfortunately, looking at his spring peripherals provides the pudding (which contains the proof)...

2007 ST: K/9: 6.2; BB/9: .77; K/BB: 8; GB%: 56%; BABIP: .185;
career: K/9: 6.3; BB/9: 4.11; K/BB: 1.53; GB%: 41%; BABIP: .312;

There's not much about his 11 innings this spring that resembles his normal tendencies. Unless he morphed at age 30 into something resembling a superman with a new pitch that dramatically increases his ability to induce grounders, he's just pitched to contact and benefited from some great luck.

This much we know about him.... based upon his career, he can't pitch from the stretch or get righties out. He hasn't been particularly adept at throwing strikes.

He is just the kind of guy that belongs on the AAA shuttle.

RedsManRick
03-25-2007, 03:18 AM
Joses Manzinillo says hi!

Exactly. Guys with track records don't suddenly become great pitchers because of a handful of ST appearances. ST should be about 95% scouting based. Between fluctuating talent and insanely small samples, stats are virtually useless.

I think Santos is a great guy to have around. But he's just another version of Matt Belisle; decent stuff, but nothing overpowering. He can be a shaky 5th starter who fades early or a moderately effective long reliever.

I love that we have Santos instead of, say, Chris Michalak, ready to go when the injuries come up. However, he's still the same Victor Santos he's been the past 5 years and 500 IP.

Doc. Scott
03-25-2007, 03:19 AM
Well, Santos has never been a full-time reliever before- he's always been a starter or swingman. Perhaps you could convince him to go to AAA by telling him he just needs a few more reps as a one- or two-inning guy. Then, by midyear, if the club can use him, great- and if they can't, let him go and find work elsewhere.

Tom Servo
03-25-2007, 11:27 AM
The Reds signed Santos to a minor-league contract. He has spent virtually all of the last three years in the big leagues, but he said he's willing to go to Triple-A if he doesn't make the Reds out of camp.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070325/SPT04/703250465/1071/SPT

Matt700wlw
03-25-2007, 01:18 PM
7th inning?

Redsland
03-25-2007, 01:20 PM
7th inning?
That's a stretch.





:clap:
Thank you, thank you very much.

Edskin
03-25-2007, 01:26 PM
I pass on Santos, despite his spring numbers.

We've seen it time and again with the Reds. Sign an aging vet pitcher, who MIGHT show a few signs of life, and watch with baited breath until he makes us say, "Yeah, well, he really is Victor Santos after all."

The law of averages eventually catches up to the Santos's of the world. I'd rather not watch it happen.

Eric_Davis
03-25-2007, 03:00 PM
It's actually a lot more common than stat gurus like to think.

Relievers especially have years that vary far from their norm. It's even more common when they come to a new team and have a chance to work with a different pitching coach.

Santos has proven this spring that he belongs on the 25-man roster and should get a shot.