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BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 10:00 AM
SOOooo, assuming it's Freel leading off, who bats 2nd, 4th, and 6th?!?!?

My guess, Hatteberg, Griffey, and Dunn...


http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070326/SPT04/703260355/1071

Reds hope two rights don't make a wrong
To balance lineup, young bats must deliver
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM
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DUNEDIN, Fla. - For Reds manager Jerry Narron's plan to split the left-handers in his lineup to work, the right-handers splitting them are going to have to hit.

That would be Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion.

Phillips is likely to hit third in Narron's plan, Encarnacion fifth. Those are two very key spots in the lineup.


"I have confidence in them," Narron said, "and they have confidence in themselves. I think they'll both benefit from having left-handers hitting around them."

Phillips, 25, and Encarnacion, 24, are about the same age and they put up about the same numbers last year.

Encarnacion hit .276 with 15 home runs and 72 RBI. He hit .303 with runners in scoring position.

Phillips hit .276 with 17 home runs and 75 RBI. He hit .297 with runners in scoring position.

Both also were on their way to much better years until they hit the wall in the September. Encarnacion hit .214 with one homer and five RBI in September after hitting .317 with seven homers and 24 RBI in August. Phillips hit .149 with two homers and nine RBI after hitting .330 with seven homers and 17 RBI in August.

If they can build on last year, the Reds have a chance to have a good offense. If they don't, the Reds could struggle offensively as they did last September.

"It's simple: They have to get it done," Narron said.

The third-fifth arrangement works well because it allows Phillips to use his speed - he stole 25 bases in 27 attempts last year - and it will give Encarnacion chances with runners in scoring position, something he has a knack for.

"I don't really care where I hit," Encarnacion said. "I can hit anywhere. (But) I like batting with runners on base."

Neither Phillips nor Encarnacion got much time last year in the spot they're going to be in this year.

Phillips hit all over the lineup. He led off nine times, hit second 16 times, third once, fifth once, sixth 28 times, seventh 66 times, eighth 15 times and ninth twice.

Encarnacion hit second three times, third nine times, fourth 39 times, fifth 19 times, sixth 25 times, seventh 13 times and eighth twice.

Narron points out that while Phillips and Encarnacion are in important spots in the lineup and thus key to the club's success, the whole lineup has to work for the Reds to be good offensively.

"For us to be successful, we're going to need 25 guys," Narron said. "We don't have one guy to carry us. We don't have the great Albert Pujols."

Narron has the stat to back up that assertion.

"Last year, we didn't have a single position player get a vote - not even a 10th-place vote - for Most Valuable Player," he said. "We've got to have 25 guys do well."

oneupper
03-26-2007, 10:06 AM
The common belief among baseball people is that you should have your best hitter bat third. Narron is a baseball guy.
If Narron thinks that Phillips is his best hitter...well...

As for 2, 4, and 6. Expect Hat, Grif and Dunn... in that order.:rolleyes:

Puffy
03-26-2007, 10:06 AM
This splitting up the lefties is ridiculous. Its a great thought, but you don't weaken your team just for the sake of splitting them up. Would Narron have broken up Ruth and Gehrig?

OK, the Reds don't have Ruth and Gehrig but my point stands. Actually, if he would just flip Encarnacion and Phillips (EdE third) and make sure Hatteburg is 6th every night (hello, Adam Dunn batting second!!) I'd be happy. But I fear the top three now becomes Freel, Hatteburg and Phillips. Meaning the Reds three best hitters (Dunn, EdE and Griff) are 4, 5, 6

Best hitters should get the most at bats there Narrono

Johnny Footstool
03-26-2007, 10:06 AM
Batting 3rd allows Phillips to use his speed, but batting 5th wouldn't? Please explain.

Hitting behind Phillips and his anemic .324 OPB will give Encarnacion more chances to hit with runners in scoring position? Please explain.

Don't get me wrong -- I like the idea of staggering the lineup. But it seems like a no-brainer to slot EdE third and move Phillips to 5th.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:08 AM
Phillips, 25, and Encarnacion, 24, are about the same age and they put up about the same numbers last year.

Encarnacion hit .276 with 15 home runs and 72 RBI. He hit .303 with runners in scoring position.

Phillips hit .276 with 17 home runs and 75 RBI. He hit .297 with runners in scoring position.


Phillips had similar counting stats but he did have 124 more plate appearances than EE. Plus, this totally discounts the massive difference in OBP and SLG.

OBP:
EE - .359
BP - .324

SLG:
EE - .473
BP - .427

There really isn't much of a comparison. EE is a much better hitter and run producer. Batting BP 3rd and EE 5th would be absurd.

membengal
03-26-2007, 10:08 AM
This is the kind of weird decision that will draw interest for fantasy players around the country. Phillips' value will be up a tick because of Narron's insistence that he bat third, simply because he will have many more opportunities to drive in runs than his .320 or so OBP should allow if he were batting sixth where he belongs.

Maybe Narron thinks he's the second coming of Roberto Alomar? This one, on Narron's long list of head scratchers, is right up there...

It's also a FINE test of the line of thought that batting order construction does not matter...

redsfan30
03-26-2007, 10:12 AM
I don't think you'll see Hatteberg hit second over Dunn.

Come next Monday, I expect to see:

Freel
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Hatteberg
Gonzalez
Ross
Harang

I'll be shocked if Dunn hit's 6th.

RedLegSuperStar
03-26-2007, 10:13 AM
I think potentially Edwin would be a better 3 hitter as opposed to having Brandon in the 3 hole. Phillips had a good power year last year but he just seems small and a type of guy to get about 15 homers where Encarnacion would seem like a guy who is going to hit 25+ potentially. Dunn batting 6th is a head scratcher.. wonder how long that lasts.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:15 AM
I don't think you'll see Hatteberg hit second over Dunn.

Come next Monday, I expect to see:

Freel
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Hatteberg
Gonzalez
Ross
Harang

I'll be shocked if Dunn hit's 6th.

I won't be shocked at all to see this on Monday.

Freel
Hatteberg
Phillips
Junior
Encarnacion
Dunn
Ross
Gonzalez
Harang

redsfan30
03-26-2007, 10:21 AM
According to the blog, this is today's lineup:

Freel CF
Dunn LF
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Encarnacion 3B
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

I'd assume that's what we'll see next week.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:23 AM
According to the blog, this is today's lineup:

Freel CF
Dunn LF
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Encarnacion 3B
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

I'd assume that's what we'll see next week.

I still say slotting Phillips 3rd in the order is criminal.

oneupper
03-26-2007, 10:26 AM
According to the blog, this is today's lineup:

Freel CF
Dunn LF
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Encarnacion 3B
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

I'd assume that's what we'll see next week.

If I'm Piniella...I pitch around Dunn.

blumj
03-26-2007, 10:26 AM
This is the kind of weird decision that will draw interest for fantasy players around the country. Phillips' value will be up a tick because of Narron's insistence that he bat third, simply because he will have many more opportunities to drive in runs than his .320 or so OBP should allow if he were batting sixth where he belongs.

Maybe Narron thinks he's the second coming of Roberto Alomar? This one, on Narron's long list of head scratchers, is right up there...

It's also a FINE test of the line of thought that batting order construction does not matter...
You know, I've been seeing all you guys whine about Narron's lineups for a while now, and I always kind of thought it was a bit over the top, considering how bad most managers are, but I'm really starting to get it now. It's like he's trying to use calculus to solve 2+2=?. Doesn't he have actual work to do?

redsfan30
03-26-2007, 10:26 AM
If I'm Piniella...I pitch around Dunn.

Why?

Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion aren't exactly scrubs hitting behind him.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:32 AM
Why?

Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion aren't exactly scrubs hitting behind him.

Phillips is an out machine with a little bit of slugging ability. I'd pitch around Dunn to get to him without hesitation.

Always Red
03-26-2007, 10:33 AM
That's a leap of faith, hitting Phillips 3rd.

I understand he had a fine year last year, and he has a higher ceiling than most, but from what I've seen of him this spring, he is still a very undisciplined hitter.

Hitting him 3rd means Narron thinks he will improve on his numbers from last year. As for me, I'd be happy if he can just duplicate them!

Maybe BP will just be holding the spot for Hammy??:)

cincy09
03-26-2007, 10:34 AM
That's a leap of faith, hitting Phillips 3rd.


Maybe BP will just be holding the spot for Hammy??:)

No, a lefty doesn't slot there :bang:

Heath
03-26-2007, 10:35 AM
Switch Encarnacion with Phillips and I'd be ok with it.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:35 AM
Switch Encarnacion with Phillips and I'd be ok with it.

Same here.

bucksfan2
03-26-2007, 10:36 AM
I think Narron puts too much credance in righty lefty matchups. I think it shows how he likes to overthink and overmanage the game. However I dont mind Phillips in the 3 hole. I would actually move him up into the 2 hole to use his speed even more. Phillips is the best baserunner on this team and I think hitting in the middle of a lineup would do wonders for his avg and obp. Last year when he hit 6 or 7 he had either Ross, Larue or Clayton protecting him. This year if he has the likes of Griffey, EE, and Dunner protecting him you will see his production increase.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 10:43 AM
I'm telling you, this whole LOVE AFFAIR with Hatteberg has to end. YEAH, he takes a lot of walks, but SHEESH!! You need your best hitters - not just for average - getting more AB's. After the first inning, who cares who's batting 1-2?

I guess it's all about trying to "Manufacture" runs in the first inning. IMO, that's a stretch since Freel's OBP is pretty ****ty.

You can't put a guy who hits 40-ish HR's and 200 K's batting 2nd however.

If the whole reason of "breaking up" the lefties - Jr and Dunn - is to avoid someone sending in a lefty reliever to take them both on, without changing pitchers - I guess I can understand the philosophy.

But, to get your #1 HR/RBI/Walk/Run guy batting 6th makes no sense to me.

By the way, anybody notice who's had a better Spring BA - Josh Hamilton or Adam Dunn?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Always Red
03-26-2007, 10:45 AM
No, a lefty doesn't slot there :bang:

slots, schmotz. Good hitters are good hitters; doesn't matter where you put them. What's the problem with lining up lefties against RH pitching? Teams do it against the Reds all the time.

It seems counterproductive to arrange a lineup around 8th and 9th inning matchups. Besides, doesn't Dunn hit lefties just as well as he hits righties?

kaldaniels
03-26-2007, 10:45 AM
Not related to batting order really, but Phillips and EE. I've said before I expect EE to improve this year but not dramatically better. However I think Phillips will be the player on the team who we really see step up and reach that next level. Batting 3rd will put Phillips in a position to put up or shut up.

BRM
03-26-2007, 10:45 AM
By the way, anybody notice who's had a better Spring BA - Josh Hamilton or Adam Dunn?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Adam Dunn.

Cyclone792
03-26-2007, 10:50 AM
Why?

Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion aren't exactly scrubs hitting behind him.

Phillips has a well-known history of swinging at garbage out of the strike zone and making far too many outs. If he doubled his walk output - which would mean far less swinging at crap out of the strike zone - then I'd be much more tolerable to batting him third. Heck if he walked 70+ times I'd probably like him batting third. But everyone on this board has a higher chance of winning than lottery than Phillips does at taking 70+ walks.

As it is, he rarely walks and it really shows in his on-base percentage. Some people may be satisfied with what he did last season, but he still only put up an 85 OPS+. Also, don't forget, this is the same guy that hit .250/.293/.408 after the All-Star Break last season. He only took 13 walks in 273 post All-Star Break plate appearances. That's worse than Wily Mo Pena, and we all know he was terrible in that regard.

I have no qualms with batting Dunn second - he should be hitting second or third - but if Dunn's batting second then Encarnacion needs to be hitting third. Edwin will take many more walks than Phillips (which means he'll make far less outs), and he'll also hit quite a few more doubles than Phillips. Encarnacion's combo of less outs and more total bases behind a hitter of Dunn's caliber will dent the scoreboard quite a bit. Phillips, OTOH, will just make too many outs and kill too many rallies.

coachw513
03-26-2007, 10:51 AM
I don't nearly put as much time analyzing this as some of you, but...

It seems Narron is making sure he's giving great protection to Griffey (EE) to ensure KG gets pitches to hit...and when Griffey hits, the entire offense seems to put up better numbers...Dunn moves out of the "protector" role to the #2 spot where his (hopefully) new-found ability to make contact will only add to his monster numbers and potential...Phillips will get lots of pitches to hit because he's gonna have runners on base (Dunn and Freel good OB%, yes??)...I don't think EE needs as much protection in the lineup as Phillips does, but both proved last year to be good run producers (EE moreso, obviously)...

Hey, part of Narron's difficulties is all the questionmarks all the way down the lineup card:

1. Will Freel be healthy/rested enough to be an effective #1
2. Will Dunn K too much to be a #2
3. Can Phillips handle #3
4. Can Griffey stay healthy??
5. Can EE take it to a new level??
6 Is Hatteburg capable of another good year??
7. Was Ross' year a mirage last year??
8. Is Gonzo capable of any spot other than 8th??

I'm a glass-half-full guy, so I'm excited about this lineup...but I have no problem believing some of these questions won't go well, necessitating changes in the lineup card during the season...

edabbs44
03-26-2007, 11:01 AM
I wish Griffey would change his name so that Narron could hit him somewhere other than 3rd or 4th.

pahster
03-26-2007, 11:05 AM
I guess it's all about trying to "Manufacture" runs in the first inning. IMO, that's a stretch since Freel's OBP is pretty ****ty.

I'm assuming you're actually referring to Phillips or Gonzalez, as they have terrible OBPs, while Freel looks pretty decent with a career OBP of .363.

flyer85
03-26-2007, 11:09 AM
Phillips as a 3 hole hitter is a bad dream. If he wants his speed at the top he should go

Freel, Phillips, Dunn EE, Jr, Ross, Hatty, Gonzo.

Part of the issue also is the Reds are way overrating what Hatty is likely to provide. Last year was a fluke and Hatty is likely to fall far short of his 2006 season this year. At the bottom of the order his lack of power and speed will be less of an issue.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 11:11 AM
According to the blog, this is today's lineup:

Freel CF
Dunn LF
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Encarnacion 3B
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

I'd assume that's what we'll see next week.

That's it, I'm taking lunch off to see how this "LineUp" works against a top pitcher - anybody heard of this DICE K. fella?!?

I like Hatteberg in the 6th spot, but Ross 8th? This guy has real 20/80 Potential, I'm sorry but you HAVE to bat Gonzo 8th...

I think I'd like the Narron Philosophy of getting Phillips up in the order and using his speed; the R/L/R/L philosophy; and come up with a compromise:

Freel
Phillips
Junior
EE
Dunn
Hatteberg
Ross
Gonzalez

Make Mr. Phillips take a few more pitches, in the event Freel is up, make him start using more of the field, etc... You got Junior behind you, so not likely they're going to pitch around you.

EE's batting cleanup, with Dunner behind him. Hatteberg gives Dunn some back-up and Ross can drive in anybody left on base. Maybe switch Dunn and Junior, until Jr. is ready for more AB's. Methinks Mr. Josh Hamilton's going to be getting a lot of spot starts and DEFINITELY some late inning Defensive Substitutions and AB"s early and often this year, so he can simply come in on that 5th/6th spot.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

flyer85
03-26-2007, 11:16 AM
I don't nearly put as much time analyzing this as some of you, but...2. Will Dunn K too much to be a #2.Much better to have Hatty grounding into DPs to go along with his lack of speed and power. His 2006 season was a fluke, Narron doesn't realize that ... yet.

flyer85
03-26-2007, 11:20 AM
The bad part of batting Dunn 2nd is whoever bats in front of Dunn is going to benefit from getting pitched to with more fastballs, which is how they mostly pitch Freel anyway because of his lack of power. Batting him behind Freel is wasting that effect. He should have EE, BP or Jr hitting in front of him.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 11:22 AM
I'm assuming you're actually referring to Phillips or Gonzalez, as they have terrible OBPs, while Freel looks pretty decent with a career OBP of .363.

I'll take that back, he's the only Legit lead-off guy we got, and his OBP supports that.

I just don't want to "invest" in Hatteberg batting 2nd to "move him along".

I'm not a fan of Dunner in the 2 hole either, so I like Phillips at #2. When Freel's on base, he's got to become more disciplined to allow him to take that bag. When he doesn't get on base, he's got to be disciplined to get ON BASE.

After reading/digesting a bit more, I'll go with the philosophy of getting Phillips up in the order more to help him get better pitches because of his "protection". I just don't think 3rd is the place for him.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Always Red
03-26-2007, 11:30 AM
Bill James:


What order you put the players in makes very little difference.

courtesy of woy: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55872

Cyclone792
03-26-2007, 11:35 AM
Phillips as a 3 hole hitter is a bad dream. If he wants his speed at the top he should go

Freel, Phillips, Dunn EE, Jr, Ross, Hatty, Gonzo.

Part of the issue also is the Reds are way overrating what Hatty is likely to provide. Last year was a fluke and Hatty is likely to fall far short of his 2006 season this year. At the bottom of the order his lack of power and speed will be less of an issue.

This is all related to the problem that the Reds are still a bat short, as was discussed early in the offseason. As a result, they either have to deal with lousy on-base percentage high in the lineup (Phillips), or a less-than-desirable fifth hitter such as Hatteberg if Phillips is dropped lower in the order. One or the other is going to happen right now since the Reds don't have the necessary bats to solve both problems.

The biggest hope is that Votto just lights up AAA so much this season that by mid July the Reds are forced to bring him up and install him at first base. The combo of Votto's continued development and the probability of Hatteberg regressing could make that a reality; Jeff Conine surely won't be the answer to Hatteberg regressing.

Of course, as much as I like Votto, there's probably going to be some growing pains to deal with once he arrives. Still, my hope by midseason (and it's really a hope for all this to work out) is that Votto's playing first base full-time by the trading deadline. Then, lefty-righty-lefty-righty be damned, I'd be in favor of putting Votto's on-base skills and developing slugging skills in the fifth slot behind Dunn, Encarnacion, and Griffey (if #3 is healthy).

Ross is an interesting character in this ordeal too. He'll take walks, and he has some power. If it was guaranteed that he could bat .260, his combo of walks and power would make him a decent fifth hitter. But if he's just as likely to bat .220 as he is .260, and he wouldn't provide enough on-base skills or slugging skills to still remain in the middle of the lineup if that happened.

bucksfan2
03-26-2007, 11:37 AM
When Freel's on base, he's got to become more disciplined to allow him to take that bag. When he doesn't get on base, he's got to be disciplined to get ON BASE.


Thats one of my biggest problems with Freel. With his speed he should steal 60+ bases a season he just isn't a disciplined base runner. I just wonder if it is ever going to click with him.

M2
03-26-2007, 11:50 AM
I'd rather see Encarnacion hitting 3rd, but I'm not against giving Phillips the chance to step forward. The Reds need him to have a good season if the team is going to compete.

Though if this leads to Dunn hitting 6th then it's beyond a bad idea. Dunn 2nd would be great. Dunn 4th is fine. Dunn 6th is idiotic. Putting your best offensive player in a position where he can be constantly pitched around with very little consequence lacks sense at any level.

Heath
03-26-2007, 11:50 AM
The Love Affair with Scott Hatteburg will end when Joey Votto's ready for Major League pitching.

Heath
03-26-2007, 11:51 AM
I'd rather see Encarnacion hitting 3rd, but I'm not against giving Phillips the chance to step forward. The Reds need him to have a good season if the team is going to compete.

Though if this leads to Dunn hitting 6th then it's beyond a bad idea. Dunn 2nd would be great. Dunn 4th is fine. Dunn 6th is idiotic. Putting your best offensive player in a position where he can be constantly pitched around with very little consequence lacks sense at any level.


You know who is managing this ballclub, right? So, read the last sentence of your post with that in mind.

membengal
03-26-2007, 11:52 AM
The Love Affair with Scott Hatteburg will end when Joey Votto's ready for Major League pitching.

Note to the Reds...he's ready now.

Puffy
03-26-2007, 11:53 AM
Well, I still think Phillips third and EdE fifth is a mistake I am much more apt to live with it quietly as long as Hatteburg isn't 2 and Dunn is. Of course, Gonzalez anything but 8 is a crime in and of itself, but that is a topic for another day.

Chip R
03-26-2007, 11:53 AM
I wouldn't worry too much about this. You know that lineup won't be set in stone.

ochre
03-26-2007, 11:55 AM
vs. LHP splits from last season from some of the players in question:


AVG OBP SLG OPS
.270 .393 .503 .896
.299 .351 .423 .774
.248 .368 .460 .828
.204 .256 .415 .671
.231 .333 .346 .679

blumj
03-26-2007, 11:55 AM
Bill James:



courtesy of woy: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55872
Which is why it's so absurd to jump through hoops to overcomplicate it. Try to get your best hitters the most at bats, put players where they're comfortable so they'll perform their best, and then perhaps make a reasonable effort to split up lefties and righties, or give better baserunners a chance at making a bigger impact, and other little ideas of that type. You certainly don't want a manager wasting his time and possibly upsetting players obsessing over it. The fans and media have nothing better to do anyway.

BRM
03-26-2007, 11:57 AM
vs. LHP splits from last season from some of the players in question:


AVG OBP SLG OPS
.270 .393 .503 .896
.299 .351 .423 .774
.248 .368 .460 .828
.204 .256 .415 .671
.231 .333 .346 .679


The top one is Adam Dunn. Interesting indeed.

membengal
03-26-2007, 11:58 AM
Here's the thing...IF Narron were doing this because he feels Phillips is on the cusp of another leap (full acknowledgement that last year represented one such leap already), I would be very interested in this decision. For instance, if Narron really thought Phillips is about to be the best hitter on this team, I would be very, very intrigued. His batting third arguably might signify that.

But, since it is being done simply to break up the lefty bats, well, it is hard to do anything other than view it with a healthy amount of skepticism. And then some.

ochre
03-26-2007, 12:01 PM
The top one is Adam Dunn. Interesting indeed.
yep.
Dunn
Phillips
EE
Griffey
Hatteberg

Dunn oscillates between murdering lhp and being murdered by it on more or less macro (as opposed to micro, not my fellow moderator with that as his handle) levels (season long splits). Longer (multi-season) runs generally show him performing well against lhp.

Cyclone792
03-26-2007, 12:01 PM
Some pretty good lineup analysis below ...

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296



But it is possible that OBP might be more important for certain positions in the lineup, like the leadoff batter. And for SLG, it might be more important for the cleanup hitter. To check this out, I ran a regression in which team runs per game was the dependent variable (DV) and the OBP and SLG of each lineup slot as the independent variables (IVs). OBP1 means the OBP of the leadoff batter, SLG3 means the SLG of the third place hitter, etc. I used data from Retrosheet for the 1989-2002 seasons. Retrosheet shows the stats for each team by lineup position. Below are the coefficient values for the IVs.

http://images.beyondtheboxscore.com/images/admin/OBPSLG.JPG

There is quite a variance. A point of OBP is worth about .003 runs per game from the leadoff man (a .021 increase in the leadoff OBP would be about .063 runs more per game or 10 for a whole season, which usually means about 1 win). The value of OBP is much less for the number 8 man. For the leadoff man, OBP is three times as important as SLG. For the cleanup hitter, they are almost the same. So this analysis shows that the relative values of OBP and SLG could be different depending on the lineup position of the batter in question.

----------------------

Each lineup slot had 3 variables: walk percentage, hit percentage and extra-base percentage. For walks, hits, and extra-bases, the denominator was plate appearances (PAs). This is a little different than comparing OBP and SLG since OBP has PAs as the denominator and SLG has ABs. Also, by using extra-bases, it is a little like isolated power. SLG is not always as good measure of power because a guy who hits a single drives up his SLG. Isolated power is SLG - AVG, or extra-bases divided by ABs. Of course, here, I am using PAs. H1 is the hit% of the leadoff man, W1 is the walk% of the leadoff man, XB1 is the extra-base% of the leadoff man, etc. Here are the coefficient estimates:

http://images.beyondtheboxscore.com/images/admin/HWXB.JPG

Again, there are some big differences. The value of a walk to the leadoff man is twice what it is for the number 6 man. The cleanup hitter has the highest extra-base value.

flyer85
03-26-2007, 12:01 PM
against LHPs Hatty will be out of the lineup. Of course Conine over his career doesn't have platoon splits(unlike RA in 2006).

M2
03-26-2007, 12:06 PM
You know who is managing this ballclub, right? So, read the last sentence of your post with that in mind.

That's certainly the fear. Narron undermined his offense last year and if Dunn hits 6th, then he'll be doing it again.


Note to the Reds...he's ready now.

I don't think he is. He's shown good patience this spring, but we always knew he had that. What he hasn't demonstrated is an ability to do something particularly positive with the stick against major league pitchers (.240 BA, .400 SLG). Honestly, the Reds might not have a viable 1B option this year. Votto's probably still got some maturing to do and Hatteberg/Conine could be a nearly empty well.

ochre
03-26-2007, 12:07 PM
against LHPs Hatty will be out of the lineup. Of course Conine over his career doesn't have platoon splits(unlike RA in 2006).
I just threw him in there to define 'Replacement Level' :)

Homer Bailey
03-26-2007, 12:13 PM
Am I the only one who wants to see this??

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Hatteberg
Gonzo
Ross
Harang

??? I know Hamilton's not starting opening day but this is my dream!

Puffy
03-26-2007, 12:18 PM
Am I the only one who wants to see this??

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Hatteberg
Gonzo
Ross
Harang

??? I know Hamilton's not starting opening day but this is my dream!

You'll see that combination a bunch this year. But not in that order

Homer Bailey
03-26-2007, 12:20 PM
You'll see that combination a bunch this year. But not in that order

Yeah its the group I want but even I couldn't figure out a good way to arrange it.... Any other ideas?

reds44
03-26-2007, 12:21 PM
It's hard to compare Phillips to anything previously in his career. He put up some of the best numbers of his career at any level last year. He doesn't walk alot, but Griffey didn't walk at all either. Phillips put on 10 pounds in the offseason, and I am interested to see what he does next year. He drove in 75(?) runs last year, if he can get up to around 90-100 hitting in the 3 spot while stealing 25 bases his low OBP isn't going to be noticed as much.

Puffy
03-26-2007, 12:28 PM
Yeah its the group I want but even I couldn't figure out a good way to arrange it.... Any other ideas?

All I can say is what I'd do with that group - who knows what Narron would do (i.e., Gonzalez in the two hole. Blech, but a possibility at points this year). But me:

Phillips
Dunn
EdE
Griffey
Hamilton
Ross
Hatteberg
Gonzalez

Not ideal, but with those people I think thats the best you can do. If Phillips is getting on base it would be very effective lineup, offensively and defensively

Kc61
03-26-2007, 12:29 PM
The Reds are short one major right handed hitter in the lineup. That is shown by the Phillips hitting third thing. If the Reds had another good righty hitter, then Phillips could bat in the lower part of the order.

Ideally, for lineup construction, the new first baseman (Votto) would hit right handed. Unfortunately, he doesn't. The middle of the order (wherever you specifically hit them) would then be Griffey, Dunn, EE and the righty first baseman.

So the Reds, for the forseeable future, will be primarily a left handed team and some righty hitter -- Phillips now -- will get a lineup boost because of that.

flyer85
03-26-2007, 12:38 PM
Am I the only one who wants to see this??

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Hatteberg
Gonzo
Ross
Harang

??? I know Hamilton's not starting opening day but this is my dream!would be better if Hatty is nowhere to be found. Reds would be better off with Freel at 3rd and EE at 1st.

Cyclone792
03-26-2007, 12:39 PM
It's hard to compare Phillips to anything previously in his career. He put up some of the best numbers of his career at any level last year. He doesn't walk alot, but Griffey didn't walk at all either. Phillips put on 10 pounds in the offseason, and I am interested to see what he does next year. He drove in 75(?) runs last year, if he can get up to around 90-100 hitting in the 3 spot while stealing 25 bases his low OBP isn't going to be noticed as much.

On-base percentage is always noticed, and it should be.

I'm not concerned about RBIs in the least bit. If Phillips hits third all season, he'll have a ton more RBIs just because of where he is in the lineup, not necessarily because he'll be hitting better. I'm glad he bulked up a bit in the offseason, and hopefully it helps his slugging a bit. If he slugs higher, he'll help the team score more runs and win more games.

Still, I'd like to see the guy have a rate of one walk per every 10 plate appearances. That's 60 walks in 600 plate appearances, or 65 walks in 650 plate appearances. His on-base percentage would be significantly higher, and it'd sure beat his 35 walks in 587 plate appearances and .324 on-base percentage from last season.

Also, a higher walk total will do more than just directly increase his on-base percentage. A by-product of Phillips walking more is an understood increase in plate discipline, and all that'll do is allow him to pick better pitches to hit. Therefore, he'll likely do even more with the pitches that he does hit and accumulate more total bases throughout the season.

The end result of Phillips walking more? Much higher on-base percentage, probably a slightly higher slugging percentage, more runs created in the lineup, more runs scored for the Reds, and yep, more wins for the Reds.

It'd be a beautiful picture.

reds44
03-26-2007, 12:57 PM
Also, a higher walk total will do more than just directly increase his on-base percentage. A by-product of Phillips walking more is an understood increase in plate discipline, and all that'll do is allow him to pick better pitches to hit. Therefore, he'll likely do even more with the pitches that he does hit and accumulate more total bases throughout the season.
Cyclone is that really a fact? Shifting gears a bit here, isn't one of the reasons Dunn strikes out so much and hits for a low average is because of how patient he is. I know it sounds stupid, but watching him hit it sure seems that way. Now granted, that's not the entire reason Dunn hits for such a low average and strikes out alot, alot of that comes from how long his swing is and what type of hitter he is, but just watching him play 162 games per yer it's something you just notice. How often does Dunn find himself in a hole because of how many pitches he hits? How many times does he look at a 3rd strike.

Waks are great and trust me I know they mean alot I'm not naive, but they aren't the end are be all. I'd love to see BP walk more, but if he drives in nearly 100 runs, hits around .280, steals 20+ bases, and has a .330(ish) OBP I don't think i'd complain. He brings so many other things to the table, and I'm not even mentioning his defense.

Dunner44
03-26-2007, 01:22 PM
Commentators for today's game seem certian that Dunn will bat second. I'd be fine with that if EE was batting 3rd. Phillips, not so much.

flyer85
03-26-2007, 01:23 PM
Commentators for today's game seem certian that Dunn will bat second. I'd be fine with that if EE was batting 3rd. Phillips, not so much.there is at least some evidence to suggest the EE could be competent as #3 hitter. For Phillips, there is none.

fearofpopvol1
03-26-2007, 01:28 PM
I'm okay with trying this out re: Philips and EdE 3 and 5. However, if EdE proves he is the superior run producer, I would expect and hope that Narron makes the approrpirate change. Narron changes his mind often about the lineups too, so who knows. We'll see...

vaticanplum
03-26-2007, 01:40 PM
I like Jerry Narron, but I seriously wonder sometimes if he has clay between his ears.

pedro
03-26-2007, 01:48 PM
I'm going to play devil's advocate here and suggest that being a free swinger, Phillips has more to benefit from batting in front of Griffey than EE does. Further, EE has a pretty good eye so he won't be as likely to swing at balls when he gets gets pitched around to get to Hatteberg.

It certainly isn't the dumbest thing Narron has ever done.

Roy Tucker
03-26-2007, 01:53 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about this. You know that lineup won't be set in stone.

IIRC over my Cheerios this AM, the Enquirer said Narron used 140 different lineups last year.

KronoRed
03-26-2007, 01:57 PM
So close to being a great lineup its maddening, just switch EE and Phillips, the only positive I can think of is if/when Phillips plays himself out of the 3 spot that EE is the narronlogical choice to replace him.

dabvu2498
03-26-2007, 01:59 PM
IIRC over my Cheerios this AM, the Enquirer said Narron used 140 different lineups last year.

Baseball-reference.com has them at 105 different lineups.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2006_lu.shtml

RichRed
03-26-2007, 02:00 PM
Dunn's ABs in the 6th spot the last few years:

2003: 123
2004: 88
2005: 111
2006: 13

You never know with Narron, but maybe he's caught on to the absurdity of batting Dunn 6th.

M2
03-26-2007, 02:02 PM
So close to being a great lineup its maddening, just switch EE and Phillips, the only positive I can think of is if/when Phillips plays himself out of the 3 spot that EE is the narronlogical choice to replace him.

That's why I don't mind it. Phillips will either thrive or get flipped with Edwin. As I mentioned in another thread, I also don't mind the team seeing if it can get more from Phillips. The 6-7-8 guys in this lineup will necessitate big contributions from the other five.

The question I've got is what do things look like when Jr.'s injured?

Roy Tucker
03-26-2007, 02:05 PM
Baseball-reference.com has them at 105 different lineups.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2006_lu.shtml

FWIW, it was Scoop that reported the 140 so take it with a grain of salt...

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070324/SPT04/703240443/1071/SPT

Narron intends to break up left-handed bats
Reds notebook
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Ken Griffey Jr.'s absence has kept Reds manager Jerry Narron from trotting out his projected Opening Day lineup this spring.

That hasn't kept him from penciling out lineups.

"I've been messing with what it would be like with Josh Hamilton in Griffey's spot," he said.

That spot might not be the No. 3 spot, where Griffey hit 99 times in 104 starts last year.

Narron wants to split up the left-handers - Griffey or Hamilton, Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg. Narron prefers doing it with them in the second, fourth and sixth spots.

"Then it comes down to Hatteberg or Dunn in the two-hole, Griffey fourth or Dunn fourth, and Hatteberg, Griff or Dunn sixth," he said. "That's the only way you can do it."

Ryan Freel, a right-handed hitter, will lead off. Brandon Phillips probably will hit in the third spot and Edwin Encarnacion in the fifth spot.

"With Brandon, you know he's going to give you good at-bats," Narron said. "I like the idea of his speed up top. Eddie has a chance to be a very good RBI guy in the fifth or even third hole."

David Ross and Alex Gonzalez will bat seventh and eighth. Narron isn't sure who will be in which spot.

Another objective of Narron's is to keep things more stable than last year, when the Reds had a National League-high 140 different lineups.

"I've love to have a set lineup every day," he said, "where Doug Flynn plays once every two weeks for Joe Morgan or Davey Concepcion."

KronoRed
03-26-2007, 02:16 PM
I'd trust BR over Fay

Cyclone792
03-26-2007, 02:38 PM
Cyclone is that really a fact? Shifting gears a bit here, isn't one of the reasons Dunn strikes out so much and hits for a low average is because of how patient he is. I know it sounds stupid, but watching him hit it sure seems that way. Now granted, that's not the entire reason Dunn hits for such a low average and strikes out alot, alot of that comes from how long his swing is and what type of hitter he is, but just watching him play 162 games per yer it's something you just notice. How often does Dunn find himself in a hole because of how many pitches he hits? How many times does he look at a 3rd strike.

I'm not really sure why you're comparing Dunn to Phillips as I'm not sure what it proves, though it should be mentioned that Dunn's career slugging percentage of .513 is significantly higher than Phillips' career slugging percentage of .375. Adam Dunn takes a lot of pitches and sometimes strikes out as a result, however, he's also averaging more than one base per at bat.

What's important is that the average MLB hitter has an slugging percentage nearly 200 points higher when ahead in the count than when behind in the count. Hitters who post high quantities of walks also post the highest quantities of PAs in hitting counts. Hitters who rarely walk, such as Phillips, post very low quantities of PAs in hitting counts.

Here's two charts, the first is the top 50 single season slugging percentages through 2005 in which the hitter had a .340 or lower on-base percentage.


SEASON
OBA <= .340

SLG YEAR SLG OBA
1 Juan Gonzalez 1997 .589 .335
2 Walker Cooper 1947 .586 .339
3 Andre Dawson 1987 .568 .328
4 Sammy Sosa 1996 .564 .323
5 Henry Rodriguez 1996 .562 .325
6 Matt Williams 1993 .561 .325
7 Dave Winfield 1982 .560 .331
8 Frank Howard 1968 .552 .338
9 Alfonso Soriano 2002 .547 .332
10 Javier Lopez 1998 .540 .328
11 Eric Chavez 2001 .540 .338
12 Garret Anderson 2002 .539 .332
13 Andre Dawson 1983 .539 .338
14 Vinny Castilla 2004 .535 .332
15 Lee May 1971 .532 .332
16 Tony Armas 1984 .531 .300
17 Jose Cruz Jr. 2001 .530 .326
18 Juan Gonzalez 1992 .529 .304
19 Lee May 1969 .529 .331
20 Lance Parrish 1982 .529 .338
21 Frank Thomas 1958 .528 .334
22 Steve Finley 1999 .525 .336
23 Alfonso Soriano 2003 .525 .338
24 Bill Robinson 1977 .525 .337
25 Torii Hunter 2002 .524 .334
26 Dick Stuart 1963 .521 .312
27 Tony Batista 2000 .519 .307
28 Garret Anderson 2000 .519 .307
29 Gary Ward 1982 .519 .330
30 Robin Yount 1980 .519 .321
31 Bobby Bonilla 1990 .518 .322
32 Tony Batista 1999 .518 .330
33 Jose Canseco 1998 .518 .318
34 Dean Palmer 1999 .518 .339
35 Gary Gaetti 1995 .518 .329
36 Sammy Sosa 2004 .517 .332
37 Jay Gibbons 2005 .516 .317
38 Andruw Jones 1998 .515 .321
39 Joe Carter 1986 .514 .335
40 Richie Sexson 1999 .514 .305
41 Andruw Jones 2003 .513 .338
42 Tony Conigliaro 1965 .512 .338
43 Jermaine Dye 2005 .512 .333
44 Rocky Colavito 1959 .512 .337
45 Kelly Gruber 1990 .512 .330
46 Alfonso Soriano 2005 .512 .309
47 Reggie Jackson 1975 .511 .329
48 Andres Galarraga 1995 .511 .331
49 Frank Howard 1967 .511 .338
50 Willie Stargell 1970 .511 .329

With an on-base percentage of .340 or lower, the highest single season slugging percentage in baseball history is .589. Move only 50 seasons down the list, and you're already down to .511. That's throughout the game's entire history.

Now, let's see the list of single season slugging percentages with on-base percentages higher than .340.


SEASON
OBA > .340

SLG YEAR SLG OBA
1 Barry Bonds 2001 .863 .515
2 Babe Ruth 1920 .847 .532
3 Babe Ruth 1921 .846 .512
4 Barry Bonds 2004 .812 .609
5 Barry Bonds 2002 .799 .582
6 Babe Ruth 1927 .772 .486
7 Lou Gehrig 1927 .765 .474
8 Babe Ruth 1923 .764 .545
9 Rogers Hornsby 1925 .756 .489
10 Mark McGwire 1998 .752 .470
T11 Barry Bonds 2003 .749 .529
T11 Jimmie Foxx 1932 .749 .469
13 Babe Ruth 1924 .739 .513
14 Babe Ruth 1926 .737 .516
15 Sammy Sosa 2001 .737 .437
16 Ted Williams 1941 .735 .553
17 Babe Ruth 1930 .732 .493
18 Ted Williams 1957 .731 .526
19 Mark McGwire 1996 .730 .467
20 Frank Thomas 1994 .729 .487
21 Hack Wilson 1930 .723 .454
22 Rogers Hornsby 1922 .722 .459
23 Lou Gehrig 1930 .721 .473
24 Larry Walker 1997 .720 .452
25 Larry Walker 1999 .710 .458
26 Babe Ruth 1928 .709 .463
27 Al Simmons 1930 .708 .423
28 Lou Gehrig 1934 .706 .465
29 Mickey Mantle 1956 .705 .464
30 Jimmie Foxx 1938 .704 .462
31 Jimmie Foxx 1933 .703 .449
32 Stan Musial 1948 .702 .450
33 Babe Ruth 1931 .700 .494
34 Todd Helton 2000 .698 .463
35 Babe Ruth 1929 .697 .430
36 Manny Ramirez 2000 .697 .457
37 Mark McGwire 1999 .697 .424
38 Lou Gehrig 1936 .696 .478
39 Rogers Hornsby 1924 .696 .507
40 Hugh Duffy 1894 .694 .502
41 Jimmie Foxx 1939 .694 .464
42 Tip O'Neill 1887 .691 .490
43 Albert Belle 1995 .690 .401
44 Luis Gonzalez 2001 .688 .429
45 Barry Bonds 2000 .688 .440
46 Mickey Mantle 1961 .687 .448
47 Chuck Klein 1930 .687 .436
48 Todd Helton 2001 .685 .432
49 Hank Greenberg 1938 .683 .438
50 Rogers Hornsby 1929 .679 .459

That list looks a bit different, right?

Now I know the common answer to this would be "well, those guys are some of the best hitters of all-time." And yet, that's the point. The best hitters of all-time also tend to be hitters who have a vast amount of plate discipline and take a high number of walks.

The same principle applies to today's hitters. Look at the top 10 or top 20 players in slugging percentage in any given season and then look at those individual walk totals. Chances are, most of the hitters on that list took a nice chunk of walks too. Likewise, most of them also put up very impressive on-base percentages.

There are very few hitters in the game's history who are able to make a living feasting off bad pitches. Yogi Berra comes to mind. An example from today is Vlad Guerrero. But these guys are the exception, not the rule. The vast majority of great hitters have one thing in common: they knew how to get a good pitch to hit better than most everyone else, and when they got that good pitch to hit, they crushed it.

But the first key is knowing how to get that good pitch to hit. This is where I want to see improvement from Phillips. If he can learn that, his offensive game can really take off.


Waks are great and trust me I know they mean alot I'm not naive, but they aren't the end are be all. I'd love to see BP walk more, but if he drives in nearly 100 runs, hits around .280, steals 20+ bases, and has a .330(ish) OBP I don't think i'd complain. He brings so many other things to the table, and I'm not even mentioning his defense.

Phillips' defense is good; you won't find me criticizing that aspect of his game. Same with his basestealing capabilities, as long as he's able to continue swiping bags at an acceptable (or great) rate like he did last season.

But not being disciplined at the plate, swinging at bad pitches, and generally not doing a very good job identifying his pitch to hit each plate appearance will put a cap on what he's able to do with the stick. Say we have a goal of Brandon Phillips slugging at least .475 next season. If he gains better plate discipline and increases his walk rate by 50 percent, then he has a much better chance of slugging .475 than if he maintains his current level of plate discipline and walk rate.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 03:02 PM
This is all related to the problem that the Reds are still a bat short, as was discussed early in the offseason.

...

The biggest hope is that Votto just lights up AAA so much this season that by mid July the Reds are forced to bring him up and install him at first base. The combo of Votto's continued development and the probability of Hatteberg regressing could make that a reality; Jeff Conine surely won't be the answer to Hatteberg regressing.

I wish I was here for some of those discussions...

IMO, letting Rich Aurilia leave - and NOT HAVING A VIABLE ANSWER AT 1B - is the biggest drop-off this team will face. How in the FRUCK we ended up with Hatteberg/Conine at 1B is just SICK. I'd rather have Sean Casey back at any price than those two hacks. Sure, Hatty had a good first year, but he's not the long-term answer, and I'd argue he's not even a short-term one.

I can live with replacing Lopez with Gonzo, but we can't replace BOTH of their sticks (Lopez and Kearns) with Conine as a platoon with Hatteberg. Then to top it off we let Aurilia walk. We are basically putting everything on Another leap by Phillips and EE to take up the slack.

$10M and we're in the playoffs IMO - spent at either 1B or in the SP. I wanted to spend $20M and get both, then we were pretty much assured of it.

I hope Votto is the longterm answer, because I am almost pissing my pants at the opportunity to use Milton's $10M spot, fill #4 with Homer, and have not increased the payroll one Iota. :evil: Then we can focus on an OF-er to replace Griffey long-term.

We need to Average 25 HR's on EVERY Corner position - LF, RF, 3B, 1B - and then get some pop out of ONE of the middle position (SS/2B/CF), preferably two, and Power-hitting Catcher, if we want to win this division, playing in GABP.

And, we need to drop Milton like the bad girlfriend that won't go away, and replace him with a REAL $10M a year starter.

What's sad is, if Lohse has a solid year, and our bullpen somehow manages to produce solid 8th/9th innings with Coffey and Hermanson, we are all going to be looking at our OFFENSE as the weak point. That'd be pitiful.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TC81190
03-26-2007, 03:08 PM
IMO, that's a stretch since Freel's OBP is pretty ****ty.

Ryan Freel 06
271/363/399

Lifetime
274/367/383

Whaaaaaaaaaaaat?

OnBaseMachine
03-26-2007, 04:12 PM
We already have an OF in the minors to replace Griffey - Jay Bruce, who just happens to be one of the top 10 or 15 prospects in baseball.

Yachtzee
03-26-2007, 05:25 PM
My concern about batting Phillips third behind Dunn or Hatte, or that high in the order at all is that Phillips' free-swinging ways will lead to a bonanza of double plays. I'd gladly either put the lefties next to each other and risk the danger of an 8th inning LOOGY or put EE third and move Phillips to the fifth spot just to avoid that potential for rally killing. Home runs don't kill rallys. Double plays kill rallys.

DoogMinAmo
03-26-2007, 06:06 PM
That's it, I'm taking lunch off to see how this "LineUp" works against a top pitcher - anybody heard of this DICE K. fella?!?

I like Hatteberg in the 6th spot, but Ross 8th? This guy has real 20/80 Potential, I'm sorry but you HAVE to bat Gonzo 8th...

I think I'd like the Narron Philosophy of getting Phillips up in the order and using his speed; the R/L/R/L philosophy; and come up with a compromise:

Freel
Phillips
Junior
EE
Dunn
Hatteberg
Ross
Gonzalez

Make Mr. Phillips take a few more pitches, in the event Freel is up, make him start using more of the field, etc... You got Junior behind you, so not likely they're going to pitch around you.

EE's batting cleanup, with Dunner behind him. Hatteberg gives Dunn some back-up and Ross can drive in anybody left on base. Maybe switch Dunn and Junior, until Jr. is ready for more AB's. Methinks Mr. Josh Hamilton's going to be getting a lot of spot starts and DEFINITELY some late inning Defensive Substitutions and AB"s early and often this year, so he can simply come in on that 5th/6th spot.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


It is a crime to have Dunn that low in the order. He should never bat lower than cleanup, even against lefties.

BLEEDS
03-26-2007, 07:02 PM
It is a crime to have Dunn that low in the order. He should never bat lower than cleanup, even against lefties.

I agree. My post even said as much.

After watching him today - even though he swung at a 3-0 fastball not in his wheelhouse for a flyout - I agree with him batting 2nd.

He had DICE-K's number, he wouldn't swing at ANYTHING outside the strikezone - what'd he end up with, 3 BB?!?!? That 3-0 pitch he hit would have been an opposite-field HR if it weren't for the wind. Dude looks SOLID!!!

Anybody who was worried about him having to sacrifice Power for Average can suck an egg (my family-themed response). I think I can live with this lineup:

Freel
Dunn
Phillips
Junior
EE
Hatty
Ross
Gonzo

Let's put that out there about 125 times. Give Hamilton ALL rest starts for Jr and Freel, and Conine v. Lefties. Javy of the bench will be a great PH and give him his spot starts at C.

IF we are going to do anything this year, we need these final numbers:

Freel - .275/.345 140 games, 40 SB's, 95 Runs
Dunn - .265/.400/.595/.975 160 starts 45/100 110 Walks, 110 Runs
Phillips - .275/.345 20/90
Junior - .295 30/110
EE - .275 25/100
Hatty - .285 15/80 - he won't do it, even combined with Conine*
Ross - .265 20/70
Gonzo - .260 10/55

Hamilton better have a .300 average and 15 Dingers to spell Junior and Freel in Spot starts in the OF (and when EE/Phillips/Gonzo need a day off and Freel move into the infield) and late-inning sub/PH's

To me, that #6 spot is our achilles. The other spots could be solid, although it's asking a bit for everyone to have those numbers and be healthy.

I'm not even asking for Phillips and EE to have better averages than last year, just produce more, which their positions int he lineup should garner. Ross needs to not hit .255, as well as Gonzo. Will our 1B Monstrocity hold-up in the #6 hole? That is the question...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

buckeyenut
03-27-2007, 09:08 PM
Freel
Dunn
EdE
Griffey
Phillips
Hatteberg
Ross
Gonzalez

and

Freel
Hatteberg
EdE
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Ross
Gonzalez

Those are the two lineups I like if I have to split up the lefties. I prefer the first, but could live with the second because Hatteburg is going to get on base and even if he doesn't he is going to force the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches, which helps the hitters behind him. I like the first because when Conine comes in for the platoon, he doesn't shift the lineup, just directly replaces Hatt.

Of course, I'd rather see Denorfia starting in CF and Freel backing up 2B, 3B and all three OF positions, with Dunn or even Jr backing up 1B. But I won't get that wish.

Jpup
03-28-2007, 03:03 AM
I agree. My post even said as much.

After watching him today - even though he swung at a 3-0 fastball not in his wheelhouse for a flyout - I agree with him batting 2nd.

He had DICE-K's number, he wouldn't swing at ANYTHING outside the strikezone - what'd he end up with, 3 BB?!?!? That 3-0 pitch he hit would have been an opposite-field HR if it weren't for the wind. Dude looks SOLID!!!

Anybody who was worried about him having to sacrifice Power for Average can suck an egg (my family-themed response). I think I can live with this lineup:

Freel
Dunn
Phillips
Junior
EE
Hatty
Ross
Gonzo

Let's put that out there about 125 times. Give Hamilton ALL rest starts for Jr and Freel, and Conine v. Lefties. Javy of the bench will be a great PH and give him his spot starts at C.

IF we are going to do anything this year, we need these final numbers:

Freel - .275/.345 140 games, 40 SB's, 95 Runs
Dunn - .265/.400/.595/.975 160 starts 45/100 110 Walks, 110 Runs
Phillips - .275/.345 20/90
Junior - .295 30/110
EE - .275 25/100
Hatty - .285 15/80 - he won't do it, even combined with Conine*
Ross - .265 20/70
Gonzo - .260 10/55

Hamilton better have a .300 average and 15 Dingers to spell Junior and Freel in Spot starts in the OF (and when EE/Phillips/Gonzo need a day off and Freel move into the infield) and late-inning sub/PH's

To me, that #6 spot is our achilles. The other spots could be solid, although it's asking a bit for everyone to have those numbers and be healthy.

I'm not even asking for Phillips and EE to have better averages than last year, just produce more, which their positions int he lineup should garner. Ross needs to not hit .255, as well as Gonzo. Will our 1B Monstrocity hold-up in the #6 hole? That is the question...

PEACE

-BLEEDS


I'm not sure why you are laying so much on Hatteberg. He had a good season last year and I can't see any reason why he will not post much of the same this year.

Scott Hatteberg 2006

.289/.389/.436/.825

He was great against righties and very, very good at home. Last time I checked, the Reds play 81 games at GABP. Also, basing an argument or any point about hitting on batting average, home runs, and RBIs is very questionable IMO.

vs. RHP

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Edwin
Jr.
Phillips
Ross
Gonzalez

vs. LHP

Freel
Phillips
Dunn
Edwin
Jr.
Ross
Conine
Gonzalez

I would hope that Krivsky can go out and get something better than Conine to play 1st base, but Hatteberg isn't the problem with the platoon.

BRM
03-28-2007, 05:02 PM
Well, rotoworld seems to agree with some of us concerning BP hitting 3rd.


Adam Dunn and Encarnacion went back-to-back in the sixth inning. We'd like to see that happen a few times during the regular season, too, but it currently looks like Dunn will open the year batting second and Encarnacion will occupy the fifth spot. It'd make more sense to hit Encarnacion third and drop Brandon Phillips. Encarnacion had 35 points of on-base percentage on Phillips and also outslugged him last year.

Razor Shines
03-28-2007, 06:33 PM
I wish Griffey would change his name so that Narron could hit him somewhere other than 3rd or 4th.

Has he hit 3rd yet this spring? And I think he hit 5th today. I think we can stop with the Jr. is set in stone in CF and in the 3 hole now.

BLEEDS
03-28-2007, 06:38 PM
Today's lineup:

Hamilton
Gonzo
Dunn
EE
Jr
Conine
Ross
Castro

would look VERY GOOD with these STARTERS IN IT:

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
EE
JR
Hatteberg
Ross
Gonzo

so, why not make it work WITHOUT Hamilton starting:

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
EE
Junior
Phillips
Ross
Gonzo

But wait - OH MY GOD!!! We've got back-to-back lefties at #1/#2!!!! What happens in the 8th inning when they bring in a left-hander to face Hatteberg/Dunn?!?! Well, for starters, we'd sub out Hatteberg for Conine, that's what!!! Not that big of a deal.

And, if we can accept that, you'd think we could extend it JUST A TAD to cover this lineup, when Hamilton AND Freel play:

1: Hamilton in for Griffey's day off:

Freel
Phillips
Dunn
EE
Hamilton
Hatteberg
Ross/Valentin
Gonzo/Castro

vs lefties:

Freel
Phillips
Dunn
EE
Junior
Conine (yike!)
Ross
Gonzo

it's really not that complicated

PEACE

-BLEEDS