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gonelong
03-27-2007, 08:00 AM
Lurkers, not a better time to make your first post!

Ok, time for Gonelong's 6th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1) Lets scrap the "range" idea we have been working on and just post a number of Ws.
2) Lets make our prediction as if your house was being bet on it. (Please no 162 Ws, etc ? we have other threads available for this)
3) I will be **AT** the game this year, thanks to my brother! Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone consensus".

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 - RZ Ws: Acutal: PTHG:
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

I realize there is a VERY similar thread on the board at this time. Feel free to ignore this one, I won't be put out either way.

My prediction for 2007 prediction of Reds Wins is 82 Ws.

GL

RFS62
03-27-2007, 08:07 AM
84 wins

NatiRedGals
03-27-2007, 08:07 AM
I perdict 85 wins!

HumnHilghtFreel
03-27-2007, 08:12 AM
81 on the mark

DannyB
03-27-2007, 08:14 AM
89 Wins!!!

paintmered
03-27-2007, 08:16 AM
77 wins.

Redhook
03-27-2007, 08:19 AM
82 wins

NDReds
03-27-2007, 08:25 AM
82 Wins

Always Red
03-27-2007, 08:27 AM
80 wins

Shaggy Sanchez
03-27-2007, 08:29 AM
70 wins

BuckWoody
03-27-2007, 08:31 AM
79 wins.

Reds Fanatic
03-27-2007, 08:34 AM
80 wins

RedsManRick
03-27-2007, 08:37 AM
77 Wins

dabvu2498
03-27-2007, 08:37 AM
78 wins

MrCinatit
03-27-2007, 08:41 AM
80 wins.

Red Leader
03-27-2007, 08:47 AM
83 W's

Heath
03-27-2007, 09:13 AM
All the good numbers are taken.

I'm going for 83 due to the fact of the absence of a 12 game Western Swing. Those 83 wins might win the division. (We know what happened last year to the NL Central winner)

Sean_CaseyRules
03-27-2007, 09:23 AM
85 W's for the team this year! I really think we can do it.

MartyFan
03-27-2007, 09:30 AM
85 wins

WMR
03-27-2007, 09:43 AM
90 wins

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2007, 09:48 AM
86 wins.

EddieMilner
03-27-2007, 09:48 AM
75 Wins

bucksfan2
03-27-2007, 09:55 AM
80

RANDY IN INDY
03-27-2007, 09:59 AM
83 wins.

cincy09
03-27-2007, 10:03 AM
87 wins.

Redsland
03-27-2007, 10:03 AM
76 wins.

BRM
03-27-2007, 10:05 AM
77 wins.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2007, 10:07 AM
96 Wins.

The moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
03-27-2007, 10:08 AM
88 Wins!

Red Leader
03-27-2007, 10:12 AM
96 Wins.

The moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius? :dunno:

Didn't know that. If so, I agree, although I'll go 95 wins.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2007, 10:13 AM
This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius? :dunno:

Didn't know that. If so, I agree, although I'll go 95 wins.

Actually, "The 40 Year Old Virgin" was on last night, and I can't get that song out of my head.

rdiersin
03-27-2007, 10:14 AM
78 wins

Red Leader
03-27-2007, 10:31 AM
Actually, "The 40 Year Old Virgin" was on last night, and I can't get that song out of my head.

Oh, well, in that case, I'm going back to my 83 wins. :laugh:

:bash:


Just a little more time is all we're asking for
Cause just a little more time could open closing doors
Just a little uncertainty can bring you down
And nobody wants to know you now
And nobody wants to show you how
So if you're lost and on your own
You can never surrender
And if your path won't lead you home
You can never surrender
And when the night is cold and dark
You can see, you can see light
Cause no-one can take away your right
To fight and never surrender

Falls City Beer
03-27-2007, 10:34 AM
75 wins

Puffy
03-27-2007, 10:35 AM
77

TRF
03-27-2007, 10:37 AM
94 wins.

Somebody in that rotation is going to surprise the hell out of everybody. That somebody just might be Matt Belisle.

marcshoe
03-27-2007, 10:40 AM
162 wins.

Would you believe 102?

How about 85 if they get Milton out of the rotation early enough?

Joseph
03-27-2007, 10:41 AM
84

Cause no one picked it yet.

Cyclone792
03-27-2007, 10:50 AM
79 wins.

westofyou
03-27-2007, 10:50 AM
84

deltachi8
03-27-2007, 11:00 AM
74...too many holes in the rotation.

lollipopcurve
03-27-2007, 11:03 AM
80-82 -- age and injury will wear them down and thin the ranks in the second half

Joseph
03-27-2007, 11:12 AM
By the way, if we have another non-winning year, I'm making the suggestion that we get someone new to start this thread next season. :)

Gonelong has to be bad luck or something.

Totally kidding.

Maybe.

This is baseball we are talking about.

Superstitions and all.

M2
03-27-2007, 11:25 AM
76 wins

dfs
03-27-2007, 11:29 AM
This team could win 93 games. This team could lose 93 games. I'll go with 82.

Raisor
03-27-2007, 11:36 AM
82 1/2 wins

zman
03-27-2007, 11:39 AM
84 wins

vaticanplum
03-27-2007, 11:42 AM
82 wins.

Highlifeman21
03-27-2007, 12:11 PM
72 Wins

edabbs44
03-27-2007, 12:15 PM
72 wins.

Jefferson24
03-27-2007, 12:15 PM
81

texasdave
03-27-2007, 12:17 PM
Adam Dunn's career year (.975+ OPS) and a better bullpen leads the Reds to 88 wins.

pedro
03-27-2007, 12:20 PM
83

Hands22
03-27-2007, 12:22 PM
76 wins.

Jaycint
03-27-2007, 12:24 PM
83 wins.

LincolnparkRed
03-27-2007, 12:27 PM
84 with a second place finish in the division

SirFelixCat
03-27-2007, 12:27 PM
87 Wins!

KronoRed
03-27-2007, 12:47 PM
79 wins

CRedsLarkin11
03-27-2007, 12:50 PM
83 wins

Danny Serafini
03-27-2007, 01:16 PM
82-80

reds44
03-27-2007, 01:18 PM
85 wins

IowaRed
03-27-2007, 01:21 PM
I think Dunn is going to have a career year also, but nobody on the pitching staff will. 76-86

MWM
03-27-2007, 01:23 PM
69 wins. The starting pitching is just too bad.

Caveat Emperor
03-27-2007, 01:24 PM
79 Wins

Subtract 1 additional win for each week Milton remains a member of the rotation.

RichRed
03-27-2007, 01:25 PM
82 wins.

Roy Tucker
03-27-2007, 01:34 PM
80 wins.

I believe this team is better than the 2006 Reds, but I think the '06 Reds were a little lucky. They'll be better in 2008.

Degenerate39
03-27-2007, 01:51 PM
81 wins

Tom Servo
03-27-2007, 03:05 PM
84 wins

Strikes Out Looking
03-27-2007, 03:15 PM
85 wins--second in division behind Milwaukee.

oneupper
03-27-2007, 03:45 PM
80 Wins with a pythag of 84

The team will stumble out of the gate and recover when it is meaningless.

BRM
03-27-2007, 03:53 PM
The team will stumble out of the gate and recover when it is meaningless.

So, the opposite of last year?

coachw513
03-27-2007, 04:00 PM
85...

88 would get them into the playoffs...

Ravenlord
03-27-2007, 04:07 PM
74 wins

top6
03-27-2007, 04:31 PM
77 wins

redsfan30
03-27-2007, 04:58 PM
84

Gunner44
03-27-2007, 05:01 PM
88 wins and a big year from dunn

membengal
03-27-2007, 05:34 PM
82 wins. Two tiny steps forward. Made even more palatable by Votto and Bailey coming up after the All-Star Break...

letsgojunior
03-27-2007, 06:19 PM
75 wins.

redsfanmia
03-27-2007, 06:41 PM
72 wins

oneupper
03-27-2007, 07:12 PM
So, the opposite of last year?

Yeah, but I'm really lousy at predictions. My NCAA bracket should be good for last place. My final four are all out.

Brown07
03-27-2007, 07:18 PM
87 wins

boognish
03-27-2007, 08:17 PM
76 wins.

mth123
03-27-2007, 08:27 PM
69 wins. A late season push from Votto and Hamilton pick-up the pace enough to avoid 100 losses.

StillFunkyB
03-27-2007, 08:47 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb...

92

Would be nice.

nmculbreth
03-27-2007, 10:19 PM
72 wins.

rotnoid
03-27-2007, 10:35 PM
I'll go with last year's 80. This team improved defensively, but the offense is worse off, IMO.

Here's to another pennant race.

alloverjr
03-27-2007, 10:57 PM
79 W's

User Name
03-28-2007, 12:29 AM
84 wins

Ron Madden
03-28-2007, 03:36 AM
If everything goes just right 89 wins if not could be 72 wins.

While trying to block Narron and the 12 man pitching staff outta my head...... I'll get all giddy and say 84 wins in 2007. ;)

After listening to Narron on 3/29 pre game show I'm not so giddy.

The lose of Deno and the type of players/pitchers that Jerry values has brought my optimism crashing down like a ton of bricks.

I change my prediction to 75 wins in 2007. God I hope I'm wrong!

FlightRick
03-28-2007, 04:14 AM
The limp-wristed, lilly-livered, spineless twit in me thinks that the people who have posted that These Reds could potentially win 95 games or lose 95 games are dead-on....

The cocksure pundit in me, however, is assuming you can count on management to do things "by the book" (no surprises, no outrighting Milton, no adding massive payroll, just working with what we got for six months), and is confident in two observations:

(1) The 2007 Reds are a marginally better team than the 2006 Reds
(2) There is no rational basis for assuming the 2007 NL Central will be as easily beatable as the 2006 NL Central was

Process and synthesize, and I think we're good for maybe a 3-5 game net loss versus last year. I have always been partial to the number 7, so let's pick towards the optimistic end of the Pragmatism Spectrum:

77 wins.

shredda2000
03-28-2007, 12:25 PM
85 wins...good enough for 3rd place (again) in the NL Central

bucksfan
03-28-2007, 01:10 PM
I'm in for 84 with a 10% error range ;)

JaxRed
03-28-2007, 01:15 PM
Krivsky's retooling continues as he took team from 73 wins to 80 in first season. And takes it another 8 games this year to 88. Solid offensively across the board with exception of 1b, which will be below league average. Great subs available at OF in Hamilton and Denorfia.

Bullpen should be strength as there are plenty of qualified guys, and the natural sifting process will eliminate any weak ones and replace them with strong ones.

Two great starters, and a cast of potential 3-5 guys (Milton, Lohse, Belisle, Saarlos, Livingston, Ramirez) all of whom could become at least .500 pitchers.

One of the great secrets to the Krivsky success has been his unwillingness to let guys keep going out there and get torched as the prior GM had allowed. So there will be a sorting out process to figure out who stays at first.

LoganBuck
03-28-2007, 01:35 PM
75 wins

CaiGuy
03-28-2007, 02:39 PM
85

Cooper
03-28-2007, 03:15 PM
Below league average at 1st, 2nd, SS, CF, RF.
League average at C and 3rd.
Slightly above League average at LF.

Starters: league average
Bullpen:league average

Defense: slightly above LA.

72 wins (pythag wins).

MississippiRed
03-28-2007, 05:44 PM
84 wins. Division winner? I think so, by a game.

Fil3232
03-28-2007, 05:48 PM
78 wins

Razor Shines
03-28-2007, 05:54 PM
I'll go the highest so far and say 98 wins......you were all counting spring training right?

OesterPoster
03-28-2007, 07:25 PM
78 wins.

DoogMinAmo
03-28-2007, 08:08 PM
With each day optimism grows, I better nip it in the bud quickly: 85 wins

paintmered
03-28-2007, 08:56 PM
A little RZ statistical info so far with 84 predictions.

Most optimistic: 98 wins
Most pessimistic: 69 wins
Average prediction: 81 wins
Median prediction: 82 wins

Eric_Davis
03-29-2007, 02:06 AM
88 Wins

cumberlandreds
03-29-2007, 07:40 AM
83 Wins

ThatsAStrike
03-29-2007, 12:46 PM
I tend to be optimistic when it comes to the Reds in the Spring (which is strange, because I'm generally a pessimistic person), so I'm going with 84 wins. It just feels good to me.

SunDeck
03-29-2007, 01:36 PM
79/83

RedsNeck
03-29-2007, 01:37 PM
88 times we'll here "This one belongs to the Reds" or some form there of when Marty's teeing it up instead of tuning em' up for not winning the other 74. Have mercy.

IamWallaman
03-29-2007, 03:30 PM
We beat the streak... but just barely: 82Ws

jmcclain19
03-29-2007, 04:11 PM
77 wins

TeamSelig
03-29-2007, 04:56 PM
83-86 wins

Edskin
03-29-2007, 05:24 PM
86 wins

Why not?

Matt
03-29-2007, 05:37 PM
85 wins.

I(heart)Freel
03-29-2007, 05:56 PM
I go with 84 and here's my logic (based on number of times we play an opponent and how many I think we SHOULD take from them):



NL CENTRAL WINS
Cubs 18 9
Pirates 16 8
Astros 15 8
Brewers 15 7
Cards 15 7
79 39

INTERLEAGUE
Indians 6 3
Angels 3 2
A's 3 1
Mariners 3 1
Rangers 3 2
18 9

NL EAST/WEST
Diamondbacks 6 4
Phillies 6 3
Braves 7 4
Dodgers 6 3
Giants 7 4
Marlins 7 4
Mets 7 3
Nationals 7 4
Padres 6 3
Rockies 6 4
65 36

TOTAL 162 84

Red in Chicago
03-29-2007, 09:15 PM
79 wins...

RedFanAlways1966
03-29-2007, 09:38 PM
74 wins

I hope I am deemed wildly pessimistic!

ochoa30
03-29-2007, 09:48 PM
87 wins

4256 Hits
03-29-2007, 10:29 PM
71-91

Jpup
03-30-2007, 02:37 AM
87

It8ifyifitsgrif
03-30-2007, 02:46 AM
84 wins
Central Champs
10+ above .500 record against division

Ron Madden
03-30-2007, 03:19 AM
If everything goes just right 89 wins if not could be 72 wins.

While trying to block Narron and the 12 man pitching staff outta my head...... I'll get all giddy and say 84 wins in 2007. ;)

After listening to Narron on 3/29 pre game show I'm not so giddy.

The lose of Deno and the type of players/pitchers that Jerry values has brought my optimism crashing down like a ton of bricks.

I change my prediction to 75 wins in 2007. God I hope I'm wrong!

Since the season has yet to start am I allowed to do this?

gonelong
03-30-2007, 12:59 PM
Since the season has yet to start am I allowed to do this?

Sure, go ahead. It'd be nice if you'd go back an update your original post with your "final" prediction so that when I recap the average I don't mistakingly include more than one prediction per person.

GL

redsrule2500
03-30-2007, 03:44 PM
My Prediction:

2007 Reds: 90-72

thatcoolguy_22
03-30-2007, 05:01 PM
85-76. We will not have to play our final regular season game because we will have already clinched. :)

BoydsOfSummer
03-30-2007, 06:45 PM
81 wins


12 vs. the cubs:D

OldRightHander
03-30-2007, 11:10 PM
86 wins. Here's hoping they can improve on last year, but in this division, a few other teams might end up doing the same. It could be an interesting summer.

Aronchis
03-31-2007, 01:27 AM
75-87

Boss-Hog
03-31-2007, 08:20 AM
76-86

creek14
03-31-2007, 08:26 AM
91

crash54
03-31-2007, 01:08 PM
84 wins

Slider
03-31-2007, 04:55 PM
85-76

indyred
03-31-2007, 09:23 PM
83-79

biggestREDSfan
03-31-2007, 11:51 PM
90 WINS!!! Plus 2 20 game winners in Harang & Arroyo!

mound_patrol
04-01-2007, 12:12 AM
86 wins

David Cubbedge
04-01-2007, 12:36 AM
84 wins

LawFive
04-01-2007, 10:43 AM
77

WVRedsFan
04-01-2007, 04:42 PM
79 wins.

I actually think 86, but every year I get optimistic and predict a big year. I've got to change that luck!

Mario-Rijo
04-01-2007, 04:47 PM
Last years final standings:

Central W L PCT GB
St. Louis 83 78 .516 -
Houston 82 80 .506 1.5
Cincinnati 80 82 .494 3.5
Milwaukee 75 87 .463 8.5
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 16.5
Chicago 66 96 .407 17.5


Trend in the division: More offense, Less pitching

Key addition's per team: (Most Impact adds in Red)

St. Louis - Adam Kennedy/Kip Wells

Houston - Carlos Lee/Mark Loretta/Jason Jennings/Woody Williams

Cincinnati - Alex Gonzales/Jeff Conine/Josh Hamilton/Kirk Sarloos/Mike Stanton

Milwaukee - Tony Graffinino/Craig Counsell/Johnny Estrada/Jeff Suppan/Claudio Vargas/Greg Aquino/Elmer Dessens

Pittsburgh - Adam Laroche/Tony Armas Jr.

Chicago - Alfonso Soriano/Cliff Floyd/Mark Derosa/Daryle Ward/Ted Lilly/Jason Marquis/Neal Cotts


Key Defections:

St. Louis - Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Ron Belliard
Houston - Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Aubrey Huff
Cincinnati - Rich Aurilia
Milwaukee - Jeff Cirillo, Brady Clark, Doug Davis
Pittsburgh - Joe Randa, Mike Gonzales
Chicago - Juan Pierre


Key Injury returnee's: (These are just possible returnees)

St. Louis - Mark Mulder
Houston - Morgan Ensberg
Cincinnati - Ken Griffey Jr
Milwaukee - Ben Sheets, Corey Koskie
Pittsburgh - NA
Chicago - Derek Lee, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood


What's it all mean:

St. Louis: Worse (Rotation and/or Pen)
Houston: Worse (Rotation and defense doesn't make up for offense adds)
Cincinnati: Same to better (Better def., better bench may make up for poss small decline in pitching overall)
Milwaukee: Much Better (Better Staff and Pen, Same Off, similiar to better D)
Pittsburgh: Slightly better (1 yr of maturity for pitch, better off, sim def)
Chicago: Much better but 20-25 games better no (better off, worse def. same to worse pitching)


2007 Standings: (Injuries not withstanding)

Milwaukee - 88 wins
Cincinnati - 86 wins
St. Louis - 81 Wins
Chicago - 80 wins
Pittsburgh - 76 Wins
Houston - 72 wins

Rex Argos
04-01-2007, 07:04 PM
I think it's going to be tightly bunched again this season. Reds get 85 wins, and it might be enough to win. The only team that won't be in it is Pittsburgh. Everyone else stays in it until Sept.

Chip R
04-01-2007, 07:10 PM
81 wins 81 losses

VR
04-01-2007, 07:46 PM
91

Dunn, MVP
Harang Cy Candidate
Ross big year
Griff traded

BuckeyeRedleg
04-01-2007, 07:57 PM
74-88

Trace's Daddy
04-01-2007, 08:14 PM
89-73 for me

Crosley68
04-01-2007, 08:28 PM
88-74

George Anderson
04-01-2007, 10:53 PM
I'll go the highest so far and say 98 wins......you were all counting spring training right?


Well having watched "The "Price is Right" for years, I am going to top ya by one.

I will go for 99 wins.....Your old coach is sorry about doin that to ya Ryan!! ;)

Yea 99 wins sounds crazy, but no one will remember my prediction 5 months from now and if the Reds do by some miracle have 99 wins, I will look like a freaking genius!!!

Dan
04-02-2007, 04:33 AM
72-90 this season

One of the better predictors of how the season will go is the final 10-ish games of spring training (I used the final 12), when rotations are being set and everyday lineups are being used more often and for longer periods. Reds went 5-7 in that period. Extrapolated over a full season that means 68 or so wins. I think the Reds are a tad better than that so I'm saying 72 wins this year.

shocker fan
04-02-2007, 01:05 PM
86 wins

howyoufreelin
04-02-2007, 07:37 PM
84 wins

sonny
04-03-2007, 06:19 AM
Egads!

79 wins

ignore my signature

Reds Nd2
04-03-2007, 10:51 AM
77 wins.
And that's being optimistic.

T7-niner
04-03-2007, 02:52 PM
83-79

Good for Narron's first winning season as a manager and a 3 year contract extension. :evil: