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flyer85
03-27-2007, 02:02 PM
Reds will finish last in the NL Central


Cincinnati Reds (71-91)

Take the Over: My world was shaken yesterday when I learned that Todd Coffey can hit 98 on the radar gun. That leads me to put more credence in his strikeout rate breakout in 2006. If he can consolidate that with the good command that he’s displayed before, he could provide the Reds with a much-needed solution in the bullpen.

Take the Under: Adam Dunn has been getting a lot of positive buzz this spring, but PECOTA has missed high on him often enough, and there are enough questions about his work ethic, that I don’t quite feel comfortable with his monster .267/.390/.574 projection.

Sticking to My Guns: Chris Denorfia’s stat lines are tough to read because he’s been shuffled back and forth between levels, but the skill set is genuinely pretty good. He’ll reward the Reds for any playing time that they find for him by matching his .296/.365/.459 projection.

The Verdict: PECOTA already accounts for several potential breakouts-–Dunn, Denorfia, Edwin Encarnacion-–and still only gets the Reds to 71 wins. On the other hand, the Reds stand to save themselves a lot of headaches simply by shifting Ken Griffey Jr. out of center field, so I'll go with +1, and a final record of 72-90.

westofyou
03-27-2007, 02:25 PM
One can only hope that it's off.

On that note... the AL Central Pecota projections in 2005


AL Central


W L PCT RS RA
Twins 86 76 .533 827 772
Indians 85 77 .525 832 791
White Sox 80 82 .497 821 826
Tigers 76 86 .467 788 843
Royals 69 93 .427 765 889

Actual


AL Central

Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
Chicago White Sox 162 99 63 0 .611 - 741 645
Cleveland Indians 162 93 69 0 .574 6.0 790 642
Minnesota Twins 162 83 79 0 .512 16.0 688 662
Detroit Tigers 162 71 91 0 .438 28.0 723 787
Kansas City Royals 162 56 106 0 .346 43.0 701 935

Hoosier Red
03-27-2007, 02:27 PM
Does it project the division to be fairly close? Or does it project some team to hit the 90 of 95 win mark?

pedro
03-27-2007, 02:29 PM
I have a hard time believing that the Pirates, and maybe the Cubs, will finish ahead of the Reds, small consolation that is.

flyer85
03-27-2007, 02:33 PM
Does it project the division to be fairly close? Or does it project some team to hit the 90 of 95 win mark?had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.

RichRed
03-27-2007, 03:03 PM
had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.

I say they fight to the death to break the tie.

dougdirt
03-27-2007, 03:04 PM
Someone wins 90 in this division this year, I am calling it now.

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2007, 03:16 PM
Someone wins 90 in this division this year, I am calling it now.

Only team good enough in this division to win 90 games is the Milwaukee Brewers. I have them finishing first and the Reds second.

Yachtzee
03-27-2007, 03:21 PM
had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.

Yeah, but PECOTA knows nothing of goat curses and Brew Crew bunglings.

Strikes Out Looking
03-27-2007, 03:33 PM
Even with the Reds have Narron and the Cubs having Pinella, the Cubs will not finish 15 games ahead of the Reds this year, despite what the almighty PECOTA says.

westofyou
03-27-2007, 03:37 PM
http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/2/21/Carnac.jpg

red-in-la
03-27-2007, 03:44 PM
One can only hope that it's off.

On that note... the AL Central Pecota projections in 2005


AL Central


W L PCT RS RA
Twins 86 76 .533 827 772
Indians 85 77 .525 832 791
White Sox 80 82 .497 821 826
Tigers 76 86 .467 788 843
Royals 69 93 .427 765 889

Actual


AL Central

Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
Chicago White Sox 162 99 63 0 .611 - 741 645
Cleveland Indians 162 93 69 0 .574 6.0 790 642
Minnesota Twins 162 83 79 0 .512 16.0 688 662
Detroit Tigers 162 71 91 0 .438 28.0 723 787
Kansas City Royals 162 56 106 0 .346 43.0 701 935



The worry is that it looks like PECOTA is dead on in predicting who finishes last. :help: :bang:

Matt700wlw
03-27-2007, 03:47 PM
Only team good enough in this division to win 90 games is the Milwaukee Brewers. I have them finishing first and the Reds second.

The only thing with the Brewers is they've actually been pretty talented in the past few years and should have done better that they did.

It never seems to come together, in the end. Until they show they can put it together, I expect more of the same

Outshined_One
03-27-2007, 04:02 PM
The only thing with the Brewers is they've actually been pretty talented in the past few years and should have done better that they did.

It never seems to come together, in the end. Until they show they can put it together, I expect more of the same

Ditto. It's like the Arizona Cardinals over the past few years; a heck of a lot of talent, everyone always predicting them to be sleepers in preseason, and nothing to show for it.

Moosie52
03-27-2007, 04:05 PM
Who knows what will happen. There could (probably will) be injuries to key players.

coachw513
03-27-2007, 04:44 PM
Only team good enough in this division to win 90 games is the Milwaukee Brewers. I have them finishing first and the Reds second.

You beat me to it...only way someone gets to 90 is with good, stable pitching...if Sheets is healthy all year long (exactly how many syllables can you make the word 'if'??) their rotation is the 1 capable of putting multi-win streaks up during the season...

Reds1
03-28-2007, 01:53 AM
I have a hard time believing that the Pirates, and maybe the Cubs, will finish ahead of the Reds, small consolation that is.

I think Houston is overrated and getting old. I like the Cubs over Houston, but I see the Reds in the mix and the final standings based on injuries.

Ltlabner
03-28-2007, 07:32 AM
Reds will finish last in the NL Central

Funny that at the BP website the Reds will finish last. The Astros, Pirates and Brewers will stomp us.

In the BP book they spend the entire time talking about how the Astros offense is awefull, the Pirates are hopelessly mired in not caring about winning and the Brewers are all talk and no deliver. And they paint a picture that if the stars allign the Reds could be right in the hunt.

Wonder why it's polar oppisate opinions from the same source (but 2 different formats) ?

jojo
03-28-2007, 07:49 AM
Funny that at the BP website the Reds will finish last. The Astros, Pirates and Brewers will stomp us.

In the BP book they spend the entire time talking about how the Astros offense is awefull, the Pirates are hopelessly mired in not caring about winning and the Brewers are all talk and no deliver. And they paint a picture that if the stars allign the Reds could be right in the hunt.

Wonder why it's polar oppisate opinions from the same source (but 2 different formats) ?

It's the same brand but the aim of the analysis is different. I believe Nate Silver does all of the pythag projection stuff. The BP 2007 is actually written by many authors with differrent ones taking individual teams with the whole thing then being edited by Christina Karl and Steven Goldman (i.e. the make sure someone hasn't fallen off the wagon while the paste the pdf's together).

The BP2007 is more driven by player commentary/critique of the season past than it is beholden to the numbers it reports. Basically the BP2007 is a printed copy of the Pecota cards with individual player commentary (think of it as player analysis independent of a team context for the most part). Obviously alot of the commentary is editorialized. The pythags are a cold, hard look at what the team sum of the pecota projections mean to it's record. Here the individual players get lost in the analysis and there's less room for personal opinion. So while the Astro's offense might stink, the pythags suggest the the sum of their offense and pitching is better than the the Reds' sum...

jojo
03-28-2007, 07:51 AM
Funny that at the BP website the Reds will finish last. The Astros, Pirates and Brewers will stomp us.

In the BP book they spend the entire time talking about how the Astros offense is awefull, the Pirates are hopelessly mired in not caring about winning and the Brewers are all talk and no deliver. And they paint a picture that if the stars allign the Reds could be right in the hunt.

Wonder why it's polar oppisate opinions from the same source (but 2 different formats) ?

It's the same brand but the aim of the analysis is different. I believe Nate Silver does all of the pythag projection stuff. The BP 2007 is actually written by many authors with different ones taking individual teams with the whole thing then being edited by Christina Karl and Steven Goldman (i.e. basically by editing they just make sure someone hasn't fallen off the wagon while they paste the pdf's together).

The BP2007 is more driven by player commentary/critique of the season past than it is beholden to the numbers it reports. Basically the BP2007 is a printed copy of the Pecota cards with individual player commentary (think of it as player analysis independent of a team context for the most part). Obviously alot of the commentary is editorialized. The pythags are a cold, hard look at what the team sum of the pecota projections mean to it's record. Here the individual players get lost in the analysis and there's less room for personal opinion. So while the Astro's offense might stink, the pythags suggest the the sum of their offense and pitching is better than the the Reds' sum...


Basically BP2007 is meant to titillate while the pythag analysis tells it straight.

Aronchis
03-28-2007, 08:38 AM
My guess is unlike last year, more goes wrong than right this year and the Reds don't have the horses to overcome it.

But as Obi-Won Kenobi said, there are alternatives to losing. If Krivsky plays his cards right, he can have things looking better going into 2008. But Wayne's cards(Transitional progress?) have been awfully confusing since he took the job.

Reds1
03-28-2007, 09:03 AM
I watched the ESPN fantasy guide and not one red was mentioned. Not even any sleepers. Not even Dunn and his 40+ HRs. We do have a team more then a bunch of stars. Eventhough I think a couple of these guys have great potential to be. My dark horse is Brandon Phillips.

GAC
03-28-2007, 09:06 AM
PECOTA SMOTA

Lets play ball! :mooner:

redsmetz
03-28-2007, 09:30 AM
PECOTA SMOTA

Lets play ball! :mooner:

I know it's Lent and I'm not supposed to say this right now, but

ALLELUIA!!!!

redsmetz
03-28-2007, 09:31 AM
My guess is unlike last year, more goes wrong than right this year and the Reds don't have the horses to overcome it.

But as Obi-Won Kenobi said, there are alternatives to losing. If Krivsky plays his cards right, he can have things looking better going into 2008. But Wayne's cards(Transitional progress?) have been awfully confusing since he took the job.

I've been of a mind that expects a nominally competitive team for 2007 with a clear eye on '08 and beyond. Perhaps that's transitional progress, but I'm for it if the long term is better than the past.

Jaycint
03-28-2007, 09:31 AM
If the Reds finish last in the N.L. Central I will kiss Nate Silver's butt on Fountain Square and give him a half hour to draw a crowd. I'm serious, someone forward this to him. I'll pay for his flight in.

GAC
03-28-2007, 09:38 PM
I know it's Lent and I'm not supposed to say this right now, but

ALLELUIA!!!!

I guess I should have checked with PECOTA before I bought this damn ticket package to watch a last place team. :mooner:

Reds Nd2
03-29-2007, 03:12 PM
I didn't see this anywhere else, so I just posted it here. Joe Sheehan's countdown of the 30 teams for 2007. He'll cover the next ten teams tomorrow.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6034


#28. Cincinnati Reds, 72-90, sixth in NL Central, 737 RS, 826 RA. There’s no zealot like a convert. I’ve been generally bullish on the Reds in recent years, convinced that they could outscore their pitching issues. In the wake of the midseason trades that crippled the offense last season, however, I don’t think this team is going to put up nearly enough runs to win in a park that requires you take your share of 7-6 games. They’ll have OBP issues up the middle, not enough defense to make up for it, and the usual bleating about how they strike out too much. The bullpen is still just OK, and any slippage by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang—both of whom had peak seasons in 2006—is going to show up very quickly in the standings.

#25. Pittsburgh Pirates, 75-87, fifth in NL Central, 672 RS, 725 RA. I’m not quite sure that my optimism about the team’s run prevention—I have them lopping 72 runs off of last year’s figure—is entirely warranted. The good young left-handed starters are pitching in front of an average defense, and their ball-in-play tendencies could use more support than that. I like the variety of moderately talented hard throwers in the bullpen, some of whom will start the year in the minors. The offense just isn’t good; too many right-handed hitters who swing early and often, and just one certain above-average hitter in Jason Bay. Pretty ballpark, though.

#22. Houston Astros, 77-85, tied for third in NL Central, 711 RS, 749 RA. This doesn’t smell right to me. I think the Astros could be considerably worse than this, but the numbers are what they are. They have half an offense, with the lineup core of Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Luke Scott and Morgan Ensberg almost making up for three players up the middle who aren’t good bets for .310 OBPs. The rotation drops off steeply after the top two pitchers, as does the bullpen, with little help available from within. They need Roger Clemens around just to chase .500.

#21. Milwaukee Brewers, 77-85, tied for third in NL Central, 737 RS, 775 RA. This seemingly pessimistic projection lops 58 runs off last year’s pitching and defense, a huge number given that they didn’t make major personnel improvements. A full, healthy season from Ben Sheets is essential, as is improvement by Rickie Weeks at second base and Bill Hall being at least average in center field. The offense isn’t that good, featuring some pop but not much OBP, and like the Blue Jays, well-below-average speed. Their status as a preseason darling is unwarranted.

redsmetz
03-29-2007, 03:32 PM
Sheehan wrote:


Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang—both of whom had peak seasons in 2006—is going to show up very quickly in the standings.

If he had inserted one word - specifically "heretofore" before "peak seasons", I'd have no issue with it, but he strikes me as a believer in players incapable of improving on good numbers and a predestined decline. Clearly both pitchers had their best numbers ever, but I don't presume an inevitable decline.

dfs
03-29-2007, 04:07 PM
he strikes me as a believer in players incapable of improving on good numbers and a predestined decline. Clearly both pitchers had their best numbers ever, but I don't presume an inevitable decline.

Well, ...Joe knows his math. I think it's a pretty fair bet that neither Harang or Arroyo are going to have BETTER seasons than last year, simply because they were so dang valuable last year. They can have worse seasons and still be among the best pitchers in the league.

Now, that's not pre-destined, but if I HAD to attach my name to some numbers and predictions for the comming year, that's about as sure a thing as I would get.

A couple of years ago, I postulated that Adam Dunn may well have already had his most valuable season, his mystical numeric peak as a 24 year old. Yes, I know all about age 27-30 and all that, but Dunn was good enough in the 04 season, that it's entirely reasonable that he just can't have a better season than that. That's not a knock on his talent, just an acknowledgment of how valuable he was that year.

jojo
03-29-2007, 04:13 PM
Sheehan wrote:



If he had inserted one word - specifically "heretofore" before "peak seasons", I'd have no issue with it, but he strikes me as a believer in players incapable of improving on good numbers and a predestined decline. Clearly both pitchers had their best numbers ever, but I don't presume an inevitable decline.

Unless they are aliens, it's reasonable to start expecting one...

I think you've seen Harang's best but he's probably due for more of a platuea before he starts dipping.

Arroyo is really to the point of looking over the cliff. Given that he's not really a power pitcher, it's probably a gentler slope down though. I'd be surprised if he's worth his final year of the contract. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't worth the second to last year of his contract.

But then again Aurilia farted in the face of destiny last season...

jojo
03-29-2007, 04:15 PM
A couple of years ago, I postulated that Adam Dunn may well have already had his most valuable season, his mystical numeric peak as a 24 year old. Yes, I know all about age 27-30 and all that, but Dunn was good enough in the 04 season, that it's entirely reasonable that he just can't have a better season than that. That's not a knock on his talent, just an acknowledgment of how valuable he was that year.

The thing about Dunn though that most people don't realize is that he grew up in the Dominican Republic and is actually 32 years old... :D

redsmetz
03-29-2007, 04:43 PM
Unless they are aliens, it's reasonable to start expecting one...

I think you've seen Harang's best but he's probably due for more of a platuea before he starts dipping.

Arroyo is really to the point of looking over the cliff. Given that he's not really a power pitcher, it's probably a gentler slope down though. I'd be surprised if he's worth his final year of the contract. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't worth the second to last year of his contract.

But then again Aurilia farted in the face of destiny last season...

Precisely! I certainly understand that all players have a point at which their abilities decline. That in itself is not a predestination, it's a physical fact of aging. And you might be right about the timetable of the declines, but I've seen enough ballplayers beat those odds and hold off Father Time just a bit more. With Harrang and Arroyo, you're talking about them being age 29 and 30 respectively. With each day they come closer to the inevitable ultimate playing decline and final retirement. I just think that they still have some decent days ahead of them still. Perhaps they have peaked and maybe the plateau you mention is a better image. Someone started a thread about what do folks expect from the Terrific Twosome and one poster said they'd be satisfied with more or less the same results as last year. Me too.

Reds Nd2
04-03-2007, 11:20 AM
Sorry for not posting this sooner, but between drafts, work, and Opening Day, I just haven't had time. Enjoy...

#17: St. Louis Cardinals, 82-80, second in NL Central, 767 RS, 755 RA. Yes, I have the Cardinals allowing fewer runs this year, with all the questions about their rotation, then they did last year (762). That’s mostly a projected dip in offensive level, but it does indicate that I’m not pessimistic about their pitching staff. I do worry about their offense, with the 2002 Angels’ middle infield, OBP sinks in right field and behind the plate, and aging stars in center field and at third base. Remember, this was basically a .500 team in the regular season last year, and they return more or less the same team.

#13: Chicago Cubs, 84-78, first in NL Central, 788 RS, 764 RA. The talent on hand is good enough to win the division, even before considering that it’s being managed by a guy who’s going to bat Matt Murton second. Welcome to the 21st century, Cubs fans. As much as adding Alfonso Soriano helps, a full season of Derrek Lee is as big a boost, maybe bigger. The bullpen is deep, provides tactical options and can get strikeouts. The middle infield is very weak for a contender, and if it goes awry, that will be a big part of the reason.

D-Man
04-05-2007, 08:41 PM
Reds will finish last in the NL Central

Diamond Mind had the Reds in fourth, with ~10% chance of making the playoffs. To me, fourth place seems like the *most likely* result for the Reds. But in this division, nearly anything is possible.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview07/news/story?id=2820950

Diamond Mind and PECOTA were equally effective in predicting the results in 2006, but PECOTA was much better in 2005. On the other hand, Diamond Mind probably has the been the most successful for the longest time in predicting the results in the pre-season. See the "Rankings of pre-season predictions" links on this page for 2006-1998 pre-season predictions and results:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/index.html