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View Full Version : Which Red will have a breakout 2007 season?



OnBaseMachine
03-27-2007, 03:32 PM
Obviously a lot of people will choose Josh Hamilton (and rightfully so) but I'm going to go with Matt Belisle. Hamilton would be my choice for offensive player.

I have long been a fan of Matt Belisle. I loved the Mercker-for-Belisle trade the day it was made. I've always been a fan of his stuff. His velocity is starting to return to where it was before his back injury with the Braves, and his curveball has always been a solid pitch, but this year it looks sharper...you could really define it as a strikeout pitch now. With his size, I believe he has the durability to last over a full season. With his stuff and an extra year of experience under his belt, I am expecting a nice season from Belisle. 180 innings of 4.00 ERA ball and 140 strikeouts wouldn't surprise me at all.
Who is your breakout candidate?

luvdozer
03-27-2007, 03:57 PM
Edwin Encarnacion

Most projections peg him at around .275 18-20 HR 70 RBI.

im thinking he is ready to step up to 30+ HR and 100+ RBI. Does that qualify as a breakout?

Redsland
03-27-2007, 04:06 PM
Bray had better become awfully good one of these days.

Red Leader
03-27-2007, 04:13 PM
My breakout performer for 2007 is Todd Coffey.

I think that no matter how many potential replacements Wayne Krivsky signs for the back end of the bullpen, Todd Coffey will pitch well enough to force his way into that role by the end of the year.

Last year Coffey put up 78 IP, 27 BB, 60 K, .274 BAA, 3.58 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP.

This year, I'm expecting Coffey to put up 82 IP, 20 BB, 94 K, .226 BAA, 2.65 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Breakout season.

kbrake
03-27-2007, 04:15 PM
If given the chance and if he can handle the extra innings he would log as a starter I think Matt Belisle will suprise many.

Handofdeath
03-27-2007, 04:21 PM
Kyle Lohse. People forget that in 2002 and 2003 Lohse was the #2 starter for a divison winner.

TC81190
03-27-2007, 04:22 PM
Pick 1 - Belisle. 2, Lohse. 3rd is Hamilton.

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2007, 04:24 PM
Edwin Encarnacion

Most projections peg him at around .275 18-20 HR 70 RBI.

im thinking he is ready to step up to 30+ HR and 100+ RBI. Does that qualify as a breakout?

I also expect Edwin to have a huge year. By huge year, I mean 40 doubles and 25-30 homers to along with a .380 OBP.

coachw513
03-27-2007, 04:41 PM
Encarnacion breaks out...

Dunn goes to another level...

Harang repeats and gets noticed...

TC81190
03-27-2007, 04:45 PM
I also expect Edwin to have a huge year. By huge year, I mean 40 doubles and 25-30 homers to along with a .380 OBP.

That sounds right.

KronoRed
03-27-2007, 05:27 PM
I'll go with EE as well, he'll take the 3 spot by force.

BRM
03-27-2007, 05:36 PM
Denorfia could have a breakout season if given the chance but it doesn't look like it will happen.

I'll have to go with Encarnacion. I can see him becoming a very good middle of the order hitter.

Always Red
03-27-2007, 05:40 PM
Todd Coffey

I think this year, when the closers job comes his way (and it will, at some point), Todd grabs the bull by the horn and gets the job done.

Falls City Beer
03-27-2007, 06:00 PM
If stuff and age range were my only criteria I'd say Belisle too. However, the guy's had a bear of a time staying healthy, so I'm going to go with his slightly more healthy counterpart, Saarloos.

I'll say Kirk pulls a Steve Parris circa 99.

flyer85
03-27-2007, 06:13 PM
Breakout %

PECOTA says ...
Dunn 38
Ross 30
BP 27
EE 25
Gonzo 24
Jr 19
Freel 7

Bray 31
Belisle 26
Milton 18
Lohse 16
Coffey 15
Saarloos 13
Harang 5
Arroyo 3

TRF
03-27-2007, 06:29 PM
I like Phillips for a breakout year here.

I see a move to leadoff in the lineup where he has done REMARKABLY well albeit in a small sample size.

Highlifeman21
03-27-2007, 06:55 PM
Denorfia, just not for the Reds....

Conversely, Freel stinks up the joint with "regular" playing time, and we'll wish that we still had Denorfia...

I know it hasn't happened yet, but it will.

I just hope I'm wrong, and it's Freel we send packing instead of Denorfia.

Always Red
03-27-2007, 07:00 PM
... and we'll wish that we still had Denorfia...

I know it hasn't happened yet, but it will.

I just hope I'm wrong, and it's Freel we send packing instead of Denorfia.

Amen, brother.

TeamSelig
03-27-2007, 07:51 PM
EE
Lohse
A-Gon (by break out season, I mean in comparison to his past)

RedsManRick
03-27-2007, 09:09 PM
I'll go Coffey as well. I could honestly see him being our all-star rep as he grabs the closer role by the end of April.

kaldaniels
03-28-2007, 12:47 AM
I like Phillips for a breakout year here.

I see a move to leadoff in the lineup where he has done REMARKABLY well albeit in a small sample size.


Phillips is my choice as well.

mth123
03-28-2007, 12:56 AM
Phillips if he hits between Dunn and Griffey even if he doesn't really improve much.

As far as improvement goes. Todd Coffey is the guy IMO. He'll be so good that Narron won't want to waste him in the closer role, preferring to use him earlier when the most important out is needed. Sadly, his career will actually be hurt (i.e. no saves) by him being so good. I hope the Reds recognize his value.

Reds1
03-28-2007, 01:51 AM
I say Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips. Both just look incredible in the spring and have worked very hard in the off season. Pitching I say Todd Coffey!

Marc D
03-28-2007, 10:46 AM
Breakout %

PECOTA says ...
Dunn 38
Ross 30
BP 27
EE 25
Gonzo 24
Jr 19
Freel 7

Bray 31
Belisle 26
Milton 18
Lohse 16
Coffey 15
Saarloos 13
Harang 5
Arroyo 3


I lean toward the stats guys but when you see those two names given in a list of projected breakouts I start to have my doubts on that particular set of integers.

cincrazy
03-28-2007, 01:49 PM
I'm going to go with a bit of an unknown, saying anyone else would be too easy... Jared Burton. He would fit the true definition of a breakout season. No casual fan knows who this guy is, but with his arm, and if he can harness his stuff (remains to be seen), he could have a very effective year in the back end of our bullpen. Relief pitcher's often times come out of nowhere to have big seasons, and hopefully Burton continues the trend.

flyer85
03-28-2007, 01:57 PM
I lean toward the stats guys but when you see those two names given in a list of projected breakouts I start to have my doubts on that particular set of integers.breakout rate is defined as
the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance.

In the case of Milton and Jr it is as much a product as not being very good over the last three years as anything else.

BTW, Jr has a 21% Collapse rate(opposite of breakout) and Milton 30%.

So even as awful as Milton has been the last 3 years he still has a better chance of collapsing to an even lower level than he does of "breaking out".

Breakout and Collapse are relative to the last three seasons performance.

BTW, Phillips has a 22% collapse rate, while Dunn has 9%,

One way to look for breakouts while limiting risk is to find players who have a high differential between their breakout and collapse rates. Dunn is one of those players. Non Red examples Prince Fielder,Troy Tulowitzki, Chris B. Young, Stephen Drew, and Jeff Francoeur.

WebScorpion
03-30-2007, 08:22 PM
We have a whole array of players poised for a breakout season. It would be great if Arroyo and Harang can just duplicate their previous success while half of the others could marginally improve, while the remainder just avoid a drop in production. That should be enough to get into the playoffs. If one or both of the Bailey/Votto pair can break IN and breakout...well, that's why we like to watch the games, eh? I'm going with the Dunner for a monster season...if he stays healthy he's going to own a couple Reds single season records BESIDES most Ks! :beerme:

wheels
03-30-2007, 08:26 PM
1. Belisle 1a. Coffey.

I'm a big Matt Belisle fan, in case you haven't noticed.

reds44
03-30-2007, 08:52 PM
Give more on of the guys with good arms in the pen. I'll go Burton and Belisle (even if he is starting).

Phillips would be my choice on offense.

dsmith421
03-31-2007, 12:35 AM
Chad Moeller. Because frankly I don't know how he could get any worse. I'm pretty sure if he went to the plate with a table leg, one of those humongous Renaissance festival drumsticks, or a pool cue he could duplicate last year's stellar .184/.231/.276 line.

I don't know which is more pathetic: that (1) the Reds actively pursued a guy with a 30 OPS+ and signed him to a guaranteed Major League contract, or (2) that the clown hit for the cycle against the Reds in Milwaukee two years ago.

wheels
03-31-2007, 05:15 PM
Chad Moeller. Because frankly I don't know how he could get any worse. I'm pretty sure if he went to the plate with a table leg, one of those humongous Renaissance festival drumsticks, or a pool cue he could duplicate last year's stellar .184/.231/.276 line.

I don't know which is more pathetic: that (1) the Reds actively pursued a guy with a 30 OPS+ and signed him to a guaranteed Major League contract, or (2) that the clown hit for the cycle against the Reds in Milwaukee two years ago.


:laugh: Great post.

Patrick Bateman
03-31-2007, 05:44 PM
Chad Moeller. Because frankly I don't know how he could get any worse.

He could get worse as he wont get to face Reds pitching this season. His stats wont be as artifically inflated as usual.

BRM
03-31-2007, 06:33 PM
Chad Moeller. Because frankly I don't know how he could get any worse. I'm pretty sure if he went to the plate with a table leg, one of those humongous Renaissance festival drumsticks, or a pool cue he could duplicate last year's stellar .184/.231/.276 line.

I don't know which is more pathetic: that (1) the Reds actively pursued a guy with a 30 OPS+ and signed him to a guaranteed Major League contract, or (2) that the clown hit for the cycle against the Reds in Milwaukee two years ago.

Krivsky said he's a better hitter than that. ;)

jmcclain19
03-31-2007, 07:41 PM
I'll cast my vote for Kyle Lohse.

I think he takes a step forward and turns himself into a usable 3rd starter for the Reds this season. Enough to want a Gil Meche type contract in the offseason.

Betterread
04-01-2007, 03:00 PM
For a pitcher: a bullpen arm - Bill Bray? (more of a hope for a breakout than the result of an empirical or statistical epiphany)
For a field player - Josh Hamilton - I am really rooting for him - he will be the Reds' player I will be most looking forward to following this year (after him, I want Dunn to get to the "star" player level he has the potential to be.)