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coachw513
03-29-2007, 09:49 AM
with the caveat of being able to "make or break" his team...

From Steve Phillips' column on ESPN.com:


Baseball is built on five tools: hitting for average, hitting for power, throwing, fielding and running. Here's a look at the players whose skills, or lack thereof, in each area could make or break their teams. Plus, to wrap everything up, there's a sixth category -- chemistry -- on the guys who have a sixth sense for creating it.

STICKS:
Adam Dunn, LF, Reds
One of the most complex hitters in baseball, Dunn led the NL in K's, was second in walks and hit the seventh most home runs in 2006, yet he batted only .234. Of his 194 K's, 46 were called. If he focused on contact, he could hit 50 homers and drive in 150. Dunn has 12 sacrifice flies in five full seasons; Justin Morneau had 11 last year.



I'm not sure if he was complimented or insulted...kindof like everyday here at RZ :D

RichRed
03-29-2007, 09:53 AM
If only he'd hit fewer homers and more sac flies.

IamWallaman
03-29-2007, 10:18 AM
He's just saying that if he can get wood on the ball more often, better production will be the result. With a guy like Dunn, simply making contact is enough for a sac fly or even a HR. Every K is a lost opportunity for runs.

That said, Dunn's looking great so far. He's having solid ABs with much more contact and still plenty of HRs. May the trend continue! :thumbup:

SunDeck
03-29-2007, 01:42 PM
I think the comment about Dunn focusing on contact is right on the money. The guy is so big and so strong that frequent, solid contact is going to result in a lot of bases and rbis.

And I'm extremely optimistic about him. This guy is still pretty early in his development. His ceiling is enormously high as a hitter.

Degenerate39
03-29-2007, 01:44 PM
His sac flys are home runs

HumnHilghtFreel
03-29-2007, 01:48 PM
I never really took note of the sac fly thing until I saw that number, it just seems like you would accidentally hit more sac flies than just 12.

Eric_Davis
03-29-2007, 03:12 PM
As someone pointed out, he tries, but they keep going over the fence.

tripleaaaron
03-29-2007, 03:16 PM
His sac flys are home runs

this is true and most of the problem, dunn seems to have just been trying to swing soooo hard that he either hit it out or didnt touch it at all, if he could work on putting the wood on the ball more often, he will not necessarily lose home runs, but he will have more sac flies, a better average, same walk rate, better OBP, more RBI's, more Runs, more more more, I would take 5-6 less HR's anyday for an increase in every other category, those 5-6 less home runs possibly could give us 5+ more wins.

tripleaaaron
03-29-2007, 03:20 PM
If only he'd hit fewer homers and more sac flies.

more contact, less strikeouts and more sac flys DO NOT EQUAL LESS HOMERS!
The more often you get the bat on the ball, the more opportunity you have of hitting a HR (or a single, double triple), with his power he would still hit the same amount of home runs (possibly even more) he would just have more sac flies as well. More contact = more opportunity to get on base/ score runs. This equation can never work out to be negative for the Reds.

Johnny Footstool
03-29-2007, 05:44 PM
Sac flies are totally random. Ignore them.

tripleaaaron
03-29-2007, 06:39 PM
Sac flies are totally random. Ignore them.

possibly so, but they are the result of contact, which is something we all cannot disagree that dunn needs more of

DTCromer
03-29-2007, 07:28 PM
I laugh at all the people who say Dunn's homers are all Sac-flies and that he's so strong it's so hard for him to hit them.


Dunn has 12 sacrifice flies in five full seasons;

Here are other guys I consider just as strong as Adam.
David Ortiz: 32 sac flies last 5 years
Wily Mo Pena: 6 in the last 2 years
Manny Ramirez: 27 last 5 years
Ryan Howard: 8 last 2 years
Albert Pujols: 24 last 5 years

I'm sure I could name a few other players, but please don't give me a lame excuse that Dunn's too strong to hit SF's.

boognish
03-29-2007, 08:09 PM
sigh. Dunn runner on 3rd, less that 2 outs (2004-2006): .195/.391/468

84 PA, 25 BB, 32 K, 5 HR, 6 2B, 50 RBI.

Lots of non-contact AB, true, but the 11 extra-base hits in 59 AB (PA-BB) are a pretty good number, albeit in a small sample. That comes out to 18.6% of the time his hits are for extra bases (13.2% XBH vs. PA in all situations over that span). The number that jumps out is bolded above, equating to a .196 isolated discipline in those 84 PA. That suggests the man is getting nothing to hit, and is one data point in the "more contact does not equal more sac flies" argument. 57 walks + strikeouts suggest little is thrown his way in such situations that can be driven to the outfield in the air.

I realize Dunn is a frustrating hitter to watch at times, but I think many have a preconceived notion about the numbers they expect a player of his talent level to accomplish, and do not give him enough credit. Over those 84 PA, if he had had 2 more singles over a THREE YEAR span in those situations, that is 2 more RBI and a much prettier .288 BA.

For the record, Dunn hit .249/.460/.534 with RISP and 2 out, good for a .994 OPS. The man can and does hit with RISP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting3

Let's discuss! :beerme:

coachw513
03-29-2007, 09:06 PM
Has there been any more scrutinized Reds player in the history of this site than Adam Dunn???

Always Red
03-29-2007, 09:16 PM
Has there been any more scrutinized Reds player in the history of this site than Adam Dunn???

Well, Frank Robinson was considered to be "old" at the age of 30. Very much scrutinized and under-appreciated here in Cincinnati. Dealt away, and then pined after for years.

I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Adam Dunn.

DTCromer
03-29-2007, 10:19 PM
sigh. Dunn runner on 3rd, less that 2 outs (2004-2006): .195/.391/468

84 PA, 25 BB, 32 K, 5 HR, 6 2B, 50 RBI.

Lots of non-contact AB, true, but the 11 extra-base hits in 59 AB (PA-BB) are a pretty good number, albeit in a small sample. That comes out to 18.6% of the time his hits are for extra bases (13.2% XBH vs. PA in all situations over that span). The number that jumps out is bolded above, equating to a .196 isolated discipline in those 84 PA. That suggests the man is getting nothing to hit, and is one data point in the "more contact does not equal more sac flies" argument. 57 walks + strikeouts suggest little is thrown his way in such situations that can be driven to the outfield in the air.

I realize Dunn is a frustrating hitter to watch at times, but I think many have a preconceived notion about the numbers they expect a player of his talent level to accomplish, and do not give him enough credit. Over those 84 PA, if he had had 2 more singles over a THREE YEAR span in those situations, that is 2 more RBI and a much prettier .288 BA.

For the record, Dunn hit .249/.460/.534 with RISP and 2 out, good for a .994 OPS. The man can and does hit with RISP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting3

Let's discuss! :beerme:


Adam Dunn also leads the league in most useless HR's and RBI's. We always love those hits when we're up or down by 8 runs in the 7th innning.

dougdirt
03-29-2007, 10:25 PM
possibly so, but they are the result of contact, which is something we all cannot disagree that dunn needs more of

Sac flies are just a failed at bat that accidentally worked out in the favor of the team. The player doesnt walk up to the plate with the thought process of "Im going to pop up about 280 feet away so that guy at third scores" he goes up there thinking "lets get a base hit and knock that guy in".

paintmered
03-29-2007, 10:30 PM
Adam Dunn also leads the league in most useless HR's and RBI's. We always love those hits when we're up or down by 8 runs in the 7th innning.

Are you trying to flame? Or are you willing to back up those words with some research?

mole44
03-29-2007, 11:01 PM
You guys are forgetting the main problem with this article....Steve Phillips wrote it

boognish
03-29-2007, 11:02 PM
You guys are forgetting the main problem with this article....Steve Phillips wrote it

I believe most of what he says; his ties are expensive, after all. ;)

tripleaaaron
03-30-2007, 12:51 AM
Sac flies are just a failed at bat that accidentally worked out in the favor of the team. The player doesnt walk up to the plate with the thought process of "Im going to pop up about 280 feet away so that guy at third scores" he goes up there thinking "lets get a base hit and knock that guy in".

sometimes, and somewhat.
while players are trying to get hits, smart hitters are going up there in a sac situation attempting to drive the ball to RF, if it drops for a hit great, a home run, even better, a pop out still equals success, the whole point being that no matter the outcome it is a win win situation. so a player does or should go to the plate with somewhat of the mentality of "popping" up as you say. It is smart baseball.

As for the Dunn is not getting anything to hit when less than 2 out and man on third, I do not entirely argue that, but he does still strike out a bunch which means he is getting something, and if he is getting nothing I wouldnt be upset if he walked every time.
Im not disputing that Adam Dunn can and will hit with RISP, I'm just requesting that he does it more often. I would just be happy if he put the ball in play more often. I think he has shown this spring that he can be that kind of hitter, I just hope it continues and we dont see the droughts.

TeamDunn
03-30-2007, 01:09 AM
Where is Creek? This thread has her name all over it! :eek: :p: :evil:

757690
03-30-2007, 02:53 AM
I saw him in Sarasota this spring and he looks like a completely different hitter. He looks like he did his first year. Hitting the ball where it's pitched and just much more relaxed.
I see him having a monster year. 40+ homers 120 RBI's and a .270 avg.

Ron Madden
03-30-2007, 04:27 AM
:)
I never really took note of the sac fly thing until I saw that number, it just seems like you would accidentally hit more sac flies than just 12.

Hard to hit'em when you lead off so many innings. :)

jmac
03-30-2007, 07:10 AM
Sac flies are just a failed at bat that accidentally worked out in the favor of the team. The player doesnt walk up to the plate with the thought process of "Im going to pop up about 280 feet away so that guy at third scores" he goes up there thinking "lets get a base hit and knock that guy in".

I try to avoid certain discussions but I have to ask a question here.
How is it a "failed at bat" ?
Yes naturally...a player wants a hit but most times with a runner at third and less than 2 out,the batter knows just simply putting ball in play will get the runner home which is what managers preach. Thus in doing so results in accomplishing your mission rather than failure.
I am sure the hitter would rather his sac fly be a gap shot for a double or his rbi groundout be a single into right. However he has still delivered run so I just dont see calling it a "failed at bat".

RANDY IN INDY
03-30-2007, 08:14 AM
Sac flies are totally random. Ignore them.

That would make HR's totally random, too, wouldn't it? Matter of fact, that would make any hit totally random. Hitters have no control over what the baseball does, right?

RFS62
03-30-2007, 08:16 AM
Yep, can't hit it to the right side, either.

It's an illusion.

creek14
03-30-2007, 08:19 AM
Where is Creek? This thread has her name all over it! :eek: :p: :evil:
Oh I have some comments to make about his *best tools*, but I don't want to be banned now that the season is ready to start. :evil:

BRM
03-30-2007, 09:31 AM
Has there been any more scrutinized Reds player in the history of this site than Adam Dunn???

No. Adam Dunn is not Albert Pujols therefore he sucks. I am convinced there is nothing Adam can possibly do that will make some people happy. His game is one that just doesn't sit well with lots of fans. Meanwhile, I'll just enjoy his production while he's still a Red. :)

RichRed
03-30-2007, 09:46 AM
Sac flies are totally random. Ignore them.

Thank you. This was the point of my post. That, and Steve Phillips is a moron.

BRM
03-30-2007, 09:55 AM
That, and Steve Phillips is a moron.

Well, that goes without saying doesn't it? :)

Johnny Footstool
03-30-2007, 10:41 AM
That would make HR's totally random, too, wouldn't it? Matter of fact, that would make any hit totally random. Hitters have no control over what the baseball does, right?

Nope. Players tend to hit home runs at fairly consistent rates from season to season. OTOH, sac fly rates are very inconsistent from season to season.

gonelong
03-30-2007, 12:55 PM
Yep, can't hit it to the right side, either.

It's an illusion.

Humerous, but I don't think I have seen anyone make that specific argument.

GL

TC81190
03-30-2007, 05:32 PM
Sac flies are totally random. Ignore them.

Maybe, but others seem to get them. What IS consistent is that Dunn DOESN'T get them, that isn't random, and I think it's an indication of how Dunn swings in these situations, i.e., for the fences.

Ron Madden
03-31-2007, 02:29 AM
There are none so blind as those who will not see.

An open mind is a good thing. Sometimes it takes a little bit of investigation of the facts before making a decision eighther way.

AtomicDumpling
03-31-2007, 03:18 AM
No. Adam Dunn is not Albert Pujols therefore he sucks. I am convinced there is nothing Adam can possibly do that will make some people happy. His game is one that just doesn't sit well with lots of fans. Meanwhile, I'll just enjoy his production while he's still a Red. :)

I agree 100%. Some people will be haters unless Dunn wins the MVP.

I don't see Dunn "swinging for the fences". I have never seen him take a swing that knocks him off balance or appear to have swung the bat in a sole attempt to hit a home run. He is a big guy and if he hits the ball squarely it is gone. He doesn't need to rear back and haul off to hit homeruns.

If you look at the stats of the highest scoring teams of recent years you will see they didn't sacrifice much. What did they do? They walked alot and hit homeruns. They didn't steal bases either.

Sacrifice flies are more a matter of random circumstance. If you are a popup hitter that sees a lot of plate appearances with men on second or third with less than two outs then you will end up with a few sac flies at year end. If you are a line drive hitter that rarely bats with men in scoring position then you won't get sac flies.

How often did the low-OBP guys in front of Dunn get in scoring position with 0 or 1 outs in front of Dunn? Not often. How often did Freel get picked off or thrown out stealing in front of Dunn? 18 times last year alone. Freel has only one sac-fly in his entire career (back in 2003). Dunn had more RBI last year than Freel has had in his entire career. So why is Freel so popular and Dunn so reviled?

If I were a manager I wouldn't want my best hitter to go to the plate trying to make an out. I would want my best hitter to attempt to drive in the run while keeping the inning going so we can score multiple runs. We all know that it takes multiple runs to win games with our pitching staff.

Baseball is not softball. In softball you can successfully hit the ball to a specific part of the field. In baseball it is hard enough just to hit the ball. It is nearly impossible to aim a twisting, fast, small ball with a thin, cylindrical bat. Only the most proficient, experienced contact hitters are able to aim the ball to a part of the field of their choosing. I am thinking of guys like Rod Carew or Wade Boggs or Barry Larkin -- certainly not 25 year old, 6'6", 280 pound sluggers like Adam Dunn.

Maybe the fans would like Dunn better if he ran with short choppy steps and swung his arms out to the side. It works for Freel. It makes it look like he is running faster than he really is and trying very hard to win.

DTCromer
03-31-2007, 12:01 PM
I agree 100%. Some people will be haters unless Dunn wins the MVP.

I'm pretty sure we won't have to worry about that. But the thing that bothers me most about Dunn isn't his lack of contact at the plate. Or that he doesn't hit very well in the clutch. . . or he's not a fundamentally sound player. My problem with Adam is that he's lazy. For crying out loud, if you're going to suck in all of those situations I just mentioned, at least go all out. Anyone have that clip of Adam predicting he'd steal 25 bases? Because I laughed when he said that. He ended up stealing only 12-15 I think that year. But wait a minute. . .we should probably blame him getting married last year as him being lazy.

tripleaaaron
03-31-2007, 04:05 PM
I agree 100%. Some people will be haters unless Dunn wins the MVP.

I don't see Dunn "swinging for the fences". I have never seen him take a swing that knocks him off balance or appear to have swung the bat in a sole attempt to hit a home run. He is a big guy and if he hits the ball squarely it is gone. He doesn't need to rear back and haul off to hit homeruns.

If you look at the stats of the highest scoring teams of recent years you will see they didn't sacrifice much. What did they do? They walked alot and hit homeruns. They didn't steal bases either.

Sacrifice flies are more a matter of random circumstance. If you are a popup hitter that sees a lot of plate appearances with men on second or third with less than two outs then you will end up with a few sac flies at year end. If you are a line drive hitter that rarely bats with men in scoring position then you won't get sac flies.

How often did the low-OBP guys in front of Dunn get in scoring position with 0 or 1 outs in front of Dunn? Not often. How often did Freel get picked off or thrown out stealing in front of Dunn? 18 times last year alone. Freel has only one sac-fly in his entire career (back in 2003). Dunn had more RBI last year than Freel has had in his entire career. So why is Freel so popular and Dunn so reviled?

If I were a manager I wouldn't want my best hitter to go to the plate trying to make an out. I would want my best hitter to attempt to drive in the run while keeping the inning going so we can score multiple runs. We all know that it takes multiple runs to win games with our pitching staff.

Baseball is not softball. In softball you can successfully hit the ball to a specific part of the field. In baseball it is hard enough just to hit the ball. It is nearly impossible to aim a twisting, fast, small ball with a thin, cylindrical bat. Only the most proficient, experienced contact hitters are able to aim the ball to a part of the field of their choosing. I am thinking of guys like Rod Carew or Wade Boggs or Barry Larkin -- certainly not 25 year old, 6'6", 280 pound sluggers like Adam Dunn.

Maybe the fans would like Dunn better if he ran with short choppy steps and swung his arms out to the side. It works for Freel. It makes it look like he is running faster than he really is and trying very hard to win.

Why is Freel revered, and Dunn not, it has little to do with what makes Freel "look faster" rather than Freel MAKES plays, while Dunn appears to loaf around, I am not calling him lazy, but it rather appears that way (appearances can be decieving and we fans go on what we see)
I am also not disputing the fact that we send our hitters up to get an out, (read my last post entirely), nor do I dispute that he has less opportunity for Sac flies than others. But yes, he does swing for the fences. This is not necessarily a bad thing, he is a power guy, a great player in his own right, I just would like to see our central offensive piece as a more Complete player. I would like to see him make more contact, period. And yes, it is difficult to aim the ball, but it is not as difficult for a proffesional hitter to drive the ball to a certain part of the field, as in left or right. No I am not expecting him to become Ichiro or Vlade, but I would like to see more balls put in play.

BRM
03-31-2007, 05:27 PM
I'm pretty sure we won't have to worry about that. But the thing that bothers me most about Dunn isn't his lack of contact at the plate. Or that he doesn't hit very well in the clutch. . . or he's not a fundamentally sound player. My problem with Adam is that he's lazy. For crying out loud, if you're going to suck in all of those situations I just mentioned, at least go all out. Anyone have that clip of Adam predicting he'd steal 25 bases? Because I laughed when he said that. He ended up stealing only 12-15 I think that year. But wait a minute. . .we should probably blame him getting married last year as him being lazy.

The guy doesn't sprint to his position so that must make him lazy.

Yeah, he predicted 25 and only got 19. Sue him.

Always Red
03-31-2007, 07:03 PM
The guy doesn't sprint to his position so that must make him lazy.

Yeah, he predicted 25 and only got 19. Sue him.

True.

Adam Dunn is the best player on this team. (period)

DTCromer
03-31-2007, 07:21 PM
The guy doesn't sprint to his position so that must make him lazy.

Yeah, he predicted 25 and only got 19. Sue him.


I mean lazy as in. . . playing better defense. 75% of playing good outfield defense is about hustle and he can't even do that. Not to mention the spare tire he's been carrying for a few years.

AtomicDumpling
04-01-2007, 02:09 AM
True.

Adam Dunn is the best player on this team. (period)

Yes he is. There is no question about it around the league. Somehow Reds fans can't understand that.

I remember when Eric Davis was a superstar and one of the best players in the league. He was also hated by many Reds fans. People saw him as lazy and unmotivated. The guy could hit 40+ HRs, steal bases, make great plays in the field and generally just excel in every facet of the game yet he was still unpopular. The talk radio shows always had people calling in complaining about #44 Eric Davis. Those are probably the same people that dislike #44 Adam Dunn.
:rolleyes:

Always Red
04-01-2007, 09:38 AM
Yes he is. There is no question about it around the league. Somehow Reds fans can't understand that.

I remember when Eric Davis was a superstar and one of the best players in the league. He was also hated by many Reds fans. People saw him as lazy and unmotivated. The guy could hit 40+ HRs, steal bases, make great plays in the field and generally just excel in every facet of the game yet he was still unpopular. The talk radio shows always had people calling in complaining about #44 Eric Davis. Those are probably the same people that dislike #44 Adam Dunn.
:rolleyes:

Good comparison; except for Davis being so injury prone.

Eric Davis was one of the best baseball players I had even seen. There was nothing he could not do well on the field. He had more talent than anyone else on the BRM teams, except for maybe Bench.

To this day, I still think Davis is the best base stealer I have ever seen; when he wanted to steal a base, he did.

He was hurt a lot, and a lot of the older fans during that time got on him about that. My own dad was a big Reds fan, but he took to calling him "Erica" as did many others at that time. A shame. :( I think you're right, Dunn gets the same type of treatment around these parts.

Too bad Eric was so brittle. My favorite memory of him was when I was living in Chicago, sitting in the left field bleachers towards CF, and he hit one directly over our heads, out of the ballpark, onto Waveland Ave. If it had been 50 feet more towards CF, it would have left the park OVER the scoreboard. :beerme:

DTCromer
04-01-2007, 04:39 PM
Yes he is. There is no question about it around the league. Somehow Reds fans can't understand that.

I remember when Eric Davis was a superstar and one of the best players in the league. He was also hated by many Reds fans. People saw him as lazy and unmotivated. The guy could hit 40+ HRs, steal bases, make great plays in the field and generally just excel in every facet of the game yet he was still unpopular. The talk radio shows always had people calling in complaining about #44 Eric Davis. Those are probably the same people that dislike #44 Adam Dunn.
:rolleyes:


For the record, I remember Davis to a certain extent because of my age and loved the guy. I don't recall him ever being hated by our fans, because like I said I never really paid much attention to that at that young of an age.

As for Dunn, people like me are very, very frustrated with him because he could be so much better. We want him to hit well in pressure situations. We want him to hustle and play better defense. I want him to do the fundamentals. Adam could've earned a lot of points in my book by learning how to play 1st base last year and even that didn't work out. 1st base isn't a hard position to learn especially for a guy who doesn't want to move around that much. The guy COULD steal 25 bases in a year if he wanted. . .but he either doesn't want to or he simply can't because he's too busy being distracted by marriage.

The guy may arguably be the best player on the team, but that doesn't mean we as fans have the right to not notice his suckiness and lack of fundamentals for his game.

Ron Madden
04-01-2007, 05:02 PM
I'm pretty sure we won't have to worry about that. But the thing that bothers me most about Dunn isn't his lack of contact at the plate. Or that he doesn't hit very well in the clutch. . . or he's not a fundamentally sound player. My problem with Adam is that he's lazy. For crying out loud, if you're going to suck in all of those situations I just mentioned, at least go all out. Anyone have that clip of Adam predicting he'd steal 25 bases? Because I laughed when he said that. He ended up stealing only 12-15 I think that year. But wait a minute. . .we should probably blame him getting married last year as him being lazy.

Do you ever post any of your opinions over at Reds.com?