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View Full Version : Deno out 6 mo; bray, lizard, keppinger to DL; Maj, Livingston to AAA



Redsland
03-29-2007, 04:56 PM
Livingston, Majewski to Class AAA


In jerry's office right now, but wanted to fill you in

Looks like 5th starter is down to saarloos and belisle, jerry said

Final roster spot is down to hopper and moeller. That's because denorfia needs tommy john surgery and is out 6 months

He gil and guardado will start the season on the dl and go with the team to cincinnati

Leppinger, ramirez and bray will go on the dl and stay here for extended spring training
Wow. Is Deno snakebit or what?

Jaycint
03-29-2007, 04:59 PM
Kinda disappointed in Livingston being sent down.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 04:59 PM
Wow. Is Deno snakebit or what?

No kidding. I just posted on Reds Live that between this injury, his age and Hamilton possibly emerging, this does not bode well for his carear progression in MLB.

Jaycint
03-29-2007, 05:00 PM
No kidding. I just posted on Reds Live that between this injury, his age and Hamilton possibly emerging, this does not bode well for his carear progression in MLB.

Somebody call Texas quick, is Feldman still on the table? :)

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 05:00 PM
And lizzards arm is still bothering him? Could that be predictive of major health issues, sugeries and long DL stints if the same problem from late last year is still bothering him?

Redsland
03-29-2007, 05:02 PM
RE: Deno, thank goodness for Josh Hamilton.

Who could, unfortuately, wake up some random day and turn into Stanley Wilson. :(

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:04 PM
We kept Coutlangus over Majewski? That's awesome.

Sorry to hear about Deno, that's too bad. At this point, I'd rahter keep Hopper then another C.

Cyclone792
03-29-2007, 05:04 PM
Wow, that's awful. He had an excellent September last season, and I was hoping that he could finally get some playing time this season and show everyone what he's really capable of doing. But this is essentially a season ender with a small chance that he could be back sometime in September. And who knows if he'll ever fully recover and be the player that he was.

The plate appearances for Josh Hamilton in 2007 just likely went up too, especially with Griffey's injury history and Freel's wall-banging style of play.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 05:07 PM
Sorry to hear about Deno, that's too bad. At this point, I'd rahter keep Hopper then another C.

Heck, I'd take Dennis Hopper over Moller.

jojo
03-29-2007, 05:09 PM
Wow, that's awful. He had an excellent September last season, and I was hoping that he could finally get some playing time this season and show everyone what he's really capable of doing. But this is essentially a season ender with a small chance that he could be back sometime in September. And who knows if he'll ever fully recover and be the player that he was.

The plate appearances for Josh Hamilton in 2007 just likely went up too, especially with Griffey's injury history and Freel's wall-banging style of play.


Between Freel and Griffey, there might be 350 PAs waiting for someone to snag....

Joseph
03-29-2007, 05:09 PM
We kept Coutlangus over Majewski? That's awesome.

Sorry to hear about Deno, that's too bad. At this point, I'd rahter keep Hopper then another C.

I think you have to keep Hopper over Moeller at this point.

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:09 PM
Ok, filling in the roster here;

Pitchers: (12)
Arroyo
Belisle
Burton
Coffey
Cormier
Coutlangus
Harang
Loshe
Milton
Saarloos
Stanton
Weathers

Position Players: (13)
Ross
Javy
Castro
Conine
Edwin
Gonzalez
Hatteberg
Phillips
Dunn
Freel
Griffey
Hamilton
Hopper/Moeller

That looks about right.

Strikes Out Looking
03-29-2007, 05:09 PM
We kept Coutlangus over Majewski? That's awesome.

Sorry to hear about Deno, that's too bad. At this point, I'd rahter keep Hopper then another C.

If Majik can get healthy, he'll help the Reds at some point his year.

I think the Reds need to make sure Hopper is healthy before they make a decision on Moeller--since he doesn't have options they need to be as sure as possible that Hopper's heel won't put him out after they have already released Moeller.

Coultangus and Santos and Burton could all turn out to be another Manzilla--so its good there is insurance in AAA or the dl as Bray and Majik when healthy can get out major league batters. Livingston is insurance for the day Milton's knee finally gives up or his whiplash dl's him for good.

And I'm greatly saddened by Deno's injury--the Reds aren't very deep in the of with Freel and Jrs injury history.

Reds Fanatic
03-29-2007, 05:10 PM
That is a shame about Deno. According to C. Trent's blog this is a just a new injury. Apparently he hurt his arm in last Friday's game. They did an MRI last night and that showed he needed the surgery.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 05:13 PM
I think you have to keep Hopper over Moeller at this point.

I'm hoping they choose a little more depth in the OF (for when Jr and Freel are injured, and if Hamiltion implodes) over the horror that is Moeller. I just hope the therepy to overcome the sick fetish with 3 catchers has been effective.

Tom Servo
03-29-2007, 05:14 PM
I think you have to keep Hopper over Moeller at this point.
I'd say so, considering our only righty outfield options are the oft-injured Freel and the guy who shouldn't be playing the outfield in Conine.

Reds Fanatic
03-29-2007, 05:14 PM
I hope they choose Hopper too but I wonder if this is why Conine is getting some starts lately in the OF. They may be planning again on going with 3 catchers and using Conine as the 5th OF.

NJReds
03-29-2007, 05:17 PM
That's too bad. Depth is a good thing, and OF is one area where this organization isn't particularly deep. I wouldn't be surprised to see WK scan the post-ST waiver wire for an experienced OF.

Edit: Or try to deal a reliever (Cormier?) for a 4th OF.

pedro
03-29-2007, 05:17 PM
Bad news about Deno. Good thing the Reds didn't trade Freel.

Roy Tucker
03-29-2007, 05:17 PM
Man, that's tough for Denorfia. I had no idea he was even hurt.

The Reds' minor league OF depth is pretty shallow. After Hopper is DeWayne Wise and then ???. Wonder if Bruce will get forced through the system?

Not to wish ill for the guy, but after Guardado got hurt last season, I haven't expected him to come back.

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:21 PM
Man, that's tough for Denorfia. I had no idea he was even hurt.

The Reds' minor league OF depth is pretty shallow. After Hopper is DeWayne Wise and then ???. Wonder if Bruce will get forced through the system?

Not to wish ill for the guy, but after Guardado got hurt last season, I haven't expected him to come back.
I gotta think Wayne will be in the market for an outfielder.

Strikes Out Looking
03-29-2007, 05:28 PM
I gotta think Wayne will be in the market for an outfielder.

Or not, this paves the way for Hamilton to get plenty of AB's--if he is struggling at the end of May, Wayne may then need to get another OF, but I think this organization is giving Hamilton plenty of opportunity to be a mainstay for six years. I think Wayne envisions the 2009 OF to be Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce.

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:29 PM
Or not, this paves the way for Hamilton to get plenty of AB's--if he is struggling at the end of May, Wayne may then need to get another OF, but I think this organization is giving Hamilton plenty of opportunity to be a mainstay for six years. I think Wayne envisions the 2009 OF to be Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce.
What about Stubbs?

Strikes Out Looking
03-29-2007, 05:32 PM
What about Stubbs?

I think they are waiting to see what he does this year in the minors before projecting him anywhere. I've got to believe they project Bruce well ahead of Stubbs at this point.

Caveat Emperor
03-29-2007, 05:33 PM
What about Stubbs?

He couldn't hack it with the stick in rookie ball -- the only way he sees the field at GABP this season is if someone buys him 2 tickets in the box seats.

Sucks about Deno, though. At his age, there's not a lot of time for setbacks like this if he wants to go on to have a starting career somewhere.

pedro
03-29-2007, 05:35 PM
What about Stubbs?

Jay Bruce is next on the depth chart IMO.

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:36 PM
He couldn't hack it with the stick in rookie ball -- the only way he sees the field at GABP this season is if someone buys him 2 tickets in the box seats.

Sucks about Deno, though. At his age, there's not a lot of time for setbacks like this if he wants to go on to have a starting career somewhere.
I wasn't talking about this year, I was talking about 2009.

Joseph
03-29-2007, 05:39 PM
I wasn't talking about this year, I was talking about 2009.

4th OFer?

Personally I think he's Mike Frank Jr.

Matt700wlw
03-29-2007, 05:41 PM
"The trade" keeps looking better and better.

Majewski's in the minors and Bray is hurt.


Oh well...nobody's perfect

Heath
03-29-2007, 05:42 PM
I expect Wayne to be dialing up all weekend long.

I also think that Josh Hamilton, for better or for worse, will be getting serious playing time.

Matt700wlw
03-29-2007, 05:44 PM
Kinda disappointed in Livingston being sent down.

Gotta make room for everybody's favorite Uncle... :bang:

Heath
03-29-2007, 05:45 PM
I also think I'd rather have Dewayne Wise than Chad Moeller.

What's not helping is that Moeller has a propensity for getting the late inning hits this past week.

Cyclone792
03-29-2007, 05:48 PM
I expect Wayne to be dialing up all weekend long.

I also think that Josh Hamilton, for better or for worse, will be getting serious playing time.

Yep, the door just opened even wider for Hamilton now. Who knows what to expect, but he's going to get his shot.

What's interesting is that different people have different types of thinking and beliefs. I forget the actual terms for this, the general belief is that some are logical, some are fate-driven, etc. (there's several different types). I'm not one of those people that lives in destiny, fate, and whatnot, but sometimes I witness scenarios that just make me go "hmmm ... whaaaa?"

Just a few months ago, Josh Hamilton was a forgotten baseball story. The guy had played in a handful of minor league games over the past three or four years, and he was a longshot to ever become anything in the majors, much less even ever reach the majors.

But then Hamilton gets picked up out of nowhere in the Rule 5 draft by a the Reds, a team whose manager has known his family for years. The Reds then hire said manager's brother, who has a very nice and even deeper history with Hamilton. Next thing we know, spring training has started and Hamilton is lighting up opposing pitchers, and as a result he guarantees himself a roster spot as a 25th man. He was going to make the team, but nobody knew how much playing time he'd get.

Now enter Chris Denorfia, a guy who is an extremely talented outfielder that definitely deserved a shot and may have stood in Hamilton's way a bit. Boom, Denorfia's essentially out for the season, and he's no longer in Hamilton's way. Also a result, the Reds outfield depth situation becomes depressing.

But for Josh Hamilton, through all this ... now the only thing that really stands between him and a very possible regular starting outfield spot in the major leagues is an injury-laden/very fragile 37-year-old and another guy who's fully capable of running into a wall at any second, regardless if he's in a ballpark or not.

Somehow, some way, the stars just lined up and said "Here you go" to Josh Hamilton. The guy is very likely going to get a serious shot to play and produce in the major leagues, and that opportunity is busting the door down right now. You think about where he was a few months ago, one year ago, two years ago, etc ... and now look where he is ...

It's just one of those things that makes you go "hmmmm ... what just happened now?"

TeamSelig
03-29-2007, 05:49 PM
I think Moeller definitely makes the team just so they can do that stupid 3 catcher deal again.

This allows for Javy to back up 1B more often, and Conine to get some PT in the OF

Ravenlord
03-29-2007, 05:51 PM
What's not helping is that Moeller has a propensity for getting the late inning hits this past week.

i'm guessing most of those hits are probably coming off of kids in their first or second spring.

Puffy
03-29-2007, 05:57 PM
Gotta make room for everybody's favorite Uncle... :bang:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-8/1070272/JuniorSoprano-.jpg

reds44
03-29-2007, 05:57 PM
We all seem to be forgetting about Hermanson.

Grounds_Crew
03-29-2007, 05:58 PM
Yep, the door just opened even wider for Hamilton now. Who knows what to expect, but he's going to get his shot.

What's interesting is that different people have different types of thinking and beliefs. I forget the actual terms for this, the general belief is that some are logical, some are fate-driven, etc. (there's several different types). I'm not one of those people that lives in destiny, fate, and whatnot, but sometimes I witness scenarios that just make me go "hmmm ... whaaaa?"

Just a few months ago, Josh Hamilton was a forgotten baseball story. The guy had played in a handful of minor league games over the past three or four years, and he was a longshot to ever become anything in the majors, much less even ever reach the majors.

But then Hamilton gets picked up out of nowhere in the Rule 5 draft by a the Reds, a team whose manager has known his family for years. The Reds then hire said manager's brother, who has a very nice and even deeper history with Hamilton. Next thing we know, spring training has started and Hamilton is lighting up opposing pitchers, and as a result he guarantees himself a roster spot as a 25th man. He was going to make the team, but nobody knew how much playing time he'd get.

Now enter Chris Denorfia, a guy who is an extremely talented outfielder that definitely deserved a shot and may have stood in Hamilton's way a bit. Boom, Denorfia's essentially out for the season, and he's no longer in Hamilton's way. Also a result, the Reds outfield depth situation becomes depressing.

But for Josh Hamilton, through all this ... now the only thing that really stands between him and a very possible regular starting outfield spot in the major leagues is an injury-laden/very fragile 37-year-old and another guy who's fully capable of running into a wall at any second, regardless if he's in a ballpark or not.

Somehow, some way, the stars just lined up and said "Here you go" to Josh Hamilton. The guy is very likely going to get a serious shot to play and produce in the major leagues, and that opportunity is busting the door down right now. You think about where he was a few months ago, one year ago, two years ago, etc ... and now look where he is ...

It's just one of those things that makes you go "hmmmm ... what just happened now?"



I really like the sound of that. To be honest with you, it may seem far fetched, but it's exactly what Hamilton wants and what the Reds need. We haven't had much go on around here since we traded for Griffey 7 years ago. Wow, has it been that long? For Hamilton to pull off what you just said would be incredible for the city of Cincinnati and the Reds organization. The team and the city would rally around a story like that. I hope things can work out just like you explained them. In all seriousness, at this point, I don't see much of a reason to argue your statement.


Here's to a golden opportunity for Hamilton...for the Reds...and for the FANS!
:beerme:

Roy Tucker
03-29-2007, 06:00 PM
It's just one of those things that makes you go "hmmmm ... what just happened now?"



Men plan, God laughs.

Doc. Scott
03-29-2007, 06:00 PM
I think you have to keep Hopper over Moeller at this point.

Chad's getting paid $750,000 whether he's picking splinters out of his butt, purple pinstripes out of his locker, or picking boogers in his Barcalounger.

That's why he's making the team over Hopper.

Of course, I also said Bubba Crosby would make the team over both Hopper and Denorfia. So I have little credibility.

The good thing about what happened to Denorfia: it shouldn't impact his future playing ability the way major knee surgery or something might. His ship may have sailed (as far as the Reds are concerned) by next spring, sure, but his career will be able to pick up right where it left off.

Puffy
03-29-2007, 06:01 PM
Well, Josh Hamilton is the best defensive outfielder the Reds have - if he ends up having to play a lot of games I say bravo. If you are going to sacrifice offense at shortstop to help your pitching staff then you should be consistent and just make your up the middle D kick arse and let it be.

I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate. Its all about growth

Grounds_Crew
03-29-2007, 06:05 PM
I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate. Its all about growth



I hear ya my brotha'!

Big Klu
03-29-2007, 06:10 PM
Heck, I'd take Dennis Hopper over Moller.

We're gonna run the picket fence at 'em! Now boys, don't get caught watchin' the paint dry!

Roy Tucker
03-29-2007, 06:12 PM
I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate. Its all about growth


Me too.

I watched the tail end of Bull Durham the other night. Crash's little speech about "light you up like a pinball machine" to Nuke seems to hold true for Hamilton. I was hoping they could expose Hamilton to the wolves of big league pitching in limited doses. Let him test out the waters in small steps.

I'm just afraid now he's going to get bodily thrown into the water off the high dive with a cannonball.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 06:12 PM
Somehow, some way, the stars just lined up and said "Here you go" to Josh Hamilton. The guy is very likely going to get a serious shot to play and produce in the major leagues, and that opportunity is busting the door down right now. You think about where he was a few months ago, one year ago, two years ago, etc ... and now look where he is ...

On some level I think Cincy needs a kid like Hamilton to succeede over Deno. While it may or may not make any baseball sense whatsoever, Cincy is going to respond to and connect with Hamilton in a way they never would with Deno. Everybody loves a comeback story and this town especially responds to "hard work" and that blue-colar mentality.

The demorialized fan base needs a "feal good" story to wrap it's arms around. Long term winning is what's going to energize the city, but in the short term, the success of a kid like this will suffice.

This story is far from over, and is faught with perils above and beyond can he hit major league pitching. But, I think this team needs a player that can capture peoples hearts (as hookie as that sounds). For whatever reason Dunn isn't it, Jr's best days were over when Clinton left office, EE isn't there yet and Philips doesn't have the "star power".

I think this city needs Josh to succeede as much as he needs to not waste this extrodanary opportunity that's been dropped in his lap.

I also think the team better double and triple check his safety net to make sure he has all the support he needs as the pressure builds.

klw
03-29-2007, 06:17 PM
Is Hopper healthy at this point?

jojo
03-29-2007, 06:27 PM
I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate. Its all about growth

This could work out great for Hamilton. If the kid has to get 400 PA, then I think he pretty much gets a flyer in the stats department.

Cyclone792
03-29-2007, 06:28 PM
I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate. Its all about growth

Yep, hopefully the totality of the Cincinnati Reds fan base understands that. We'll likely find out if they do.

I honestly don't have any idea how well he'll perform offensively this season, and I'm not sure that anyone or anything really knows either. I really liked his plate approach and plate discipline that he's shown in spring training. Whether he can continue that, and how quickly it can help him further progress ... I don't know. He's going to have his struggles, and that should easily be expected. I figure he'll have some high moments during the season too. How it all shapes up by the end of the season is anyone's guess.

The closest comps would likely be guys who played minor league ball before WWII, took time off to serve, then jumped to the majors upon returning from WWII. But I'm not even sure who those players were, or how many there were. Plus, that was 60 years ago, and the game was just different then than it is now so I'm not even sure how much of a help those comps could be.

Danny Serafini
03-29-2007, 06:30 PM
I think Moeller definitely makes the team just so they can do that stupid 3 catcher deal again.

This allows for Javy to back up 1B more often, and Conine to get some PT in the OF

I've been thinking the same thing. I don't think they're really going to look at it as a 3 catcher setup the way this team is laid out. Conine will become more of a backup OF, with Moeller as the #2 catcher and Valentin as a PH/backup 1B/emergency C. It might be telling that Valentin has played 1B the past couple of games.

reds44
03-29-2007, 06:32 PM
I've been thinking the same thing. I don't think they're really going to look at it as a 3 catcher setup the way this team is laid out. Conine will become more of a backup OF, with Moeller as the #2 catcher and Valentin as a PH/backup 1B/emergency C. It might be telling that Valentin has played 1B the past couple of games.
I don't see that happening. Conine is still going to start at first base vs. LHP.

corkedbat
03-29-2007, 07:03 PM
I gotta think Wayne will be in the market for an outfielder.

Why? We still have Bubba don't we? :cool:

WMR
03-29-2007, 08:09 PM
On some level I think Cincy needs a kid like Hamilton to succeede over Deno. While it may or may not make any baseball sense whatsoever, Cincy is going to respond to and connect with Hamilton in a way they never would with Deno. Everybody loves a comeback story and this town especially responds to "hard work" and that blue-colar mentality.

The demorialized fan base needs a "feal good" story to wrap it's arms around. Long term winning is what's going to energize the city, but in the short term, the success of a kid like this will suffice.

This story is far from over, and is faught with perils above and beyond can he hit major league pitching. But, I think this team needs a player that can capture peoples hearts (as hookie as that sounds). For whatever reason Dunn isn't it, Jr's best days were over when Clinton left office, EE isn't there yet and Philips doesn't have the "star power".

I think this city needs Josh to succeede as much as he needs to not waste this extrodanary opportunity that's been dropped in his lap.

I also think the team better double and triple check his safety net to make sure he has all the support he needs as the pressure builds.

Lt getting an early start on unseating Cap'n Morgan as worst typist on RZ? ;) :laugh: :p:

Nugget
03-29-2007, 08:27 PM
I don't see that happening. Conine is still going to start at first base vs. LHP.

Supposedly Javy has been working on his right sided hitting which means that it is possible that if Conine has to fill in the OF Javy can start against LHP.

BRM
03-29-2007, 08:44 PM
Supposedly Javy has been working on his right sided hitting which means that it is possible that if Conine has to fill in the OF Javy can start against LHP.

Good gravy! Conine in the OF and Valentin at 1B? In the same game? Man, that's a horrible thought. This awful bench is going to bite the Reds several times this season.

KronoRed
03-29-2007, 08:50 PM
Awful news about Deno, OF just went from good to pray nobody gets hurt.

wheels
03-29-2007, 09:19 PM
They've got no right handed pop in the outfield.

Not that it's a super big issue, but I have to believe Wayne's gonna be looking for one post haste.

He won't let things stand as is. It's not his M.O..

Falls City Beer
03-29-2007, 09:21 PM
Righthanded power on this team blows, but blows even more without Deno.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 09:26 PM
Lt getting an early start on unseating Cap'n Morgan as worst typist on RZ? ;) :laugh: :p:

I am a fine typist I'll have you know. Both hands and no looking at the keyboard.

It's that pesky spelling and proof-reading that I have a problem with. :D

reds44
03-29-2007, 09:28 PM
Righthanded power on this team blows, but blows even more without Deno.
Not having Denorfia doesn't affect right handed "power" at all. Denorfia has very little power.

WMR
03-29-2007, 09:29 PM
I am a fine typist I'll have you know. Both hands and no looking at the keyboard.

It's that pesky spelling and proof-reading that I have a problem with. :D

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Hahaha excellent point!

If you only had the excuse kids these days are provided: Spelling, like math and everything else, seems to be taught in a manner where there are no wrong answers... only... different interpretations?! Haha, new age educational philosophy kills me.

Ltlabner
03-29-2007, 09:30 PM
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Hahaha excellent point!

If you only had the excuse kids these days are provided: Spelling, like math and everything else, seems to be taught in a manner where there are no wrong answers... only... different interpretations?! Haha, new age educational philosophy kills me.

No kidding buddy. I got killed on spelling tests in school and could have used the "I'm ok, you're ok" approach to grading tests.

Falls City Beer
03-29-2007, 09:30 PM
Not having Denorfia doesn't affect right handed "power" at all. Denorfia has very little power.

He's got decent pop for a small guy. Problem is, there's not much in the way of pop at all in the Reds' system to replace him. So whoever they replace Deno with will likely have even less power.

flyer85
03-29-2007, 09:32 PM
I told WK to go get Scott Hairston, but he didn't.

reds44
03-29-2007, 09:36 PM
He's got decent pop for a small guy. Problem is, there's not much in the way of pop at all in the Reds' system to replace him. So whoever they replace Deno with will likely have even less power.
He has 2 homers in 144 AB's inthe majors, and 48 homers in 2,000 minor league at bats. How is that decent pop?

Losing Denorfia doesn't affect this teams power at all. It does blow a hole in the outfield depth though.

EDIT: When you compare him to Hopper's 3 career minor league homers, I guess that's decent pop. lol

Falls City Beer
03-29-2007, 09:39 PM
He has 2 homers in 144 AB's inthe majors, and 48 homers in 2,000 minor league at bats. How is that decent pop?

Losing Denorfia doesn't affect this teams power at all. It does blow a hole in the outfield depth though.

EDIT: When you compare him to Hopper's 3 career minor league homers, I guess that's decent pop. lol

Power's the last thing to develop in a hitter, usually. And he's shown some flashes before.

pedro
03-29-2007, 09:39 PM
He has 2 homers in 144 AB's inthe majors, and 48 homers in 2,000 minor league at bats. How is that decent pop?

Losing Denorfia doesn't affect this teams power at all. It does blow a hole in the outfield depth though.

EDIT: When you compare him to Hopper's 3 career minor league homers, I guess that's decent pop. lol

he hits lots of doubles.

WMR
03-29-2007, 09:41 PM
Power's the last thing to develop in a hitter, usually. And he's shown some flashes before.

I could see him hitting 20-25 hrs. over an entire season of regular playing time.

wheels
03-29-2007, 09:43 PM
he hits lots of doubles.

Yup, Pop or Power doesn't always translate into homers.

Edwin's the only guy in the entire system that scares pitchers from the right side of the plate.

It is something of a problem in my eyes. Even worse so with the loss of Deno.

Who's out there? Who can be dealt to accquire him?

flyer85
03-29-2007, 09:44 PM
Maybe we could trade Majik and Bray for that Kearns fella. :D

flyer85
03-29-2007, 09:46 PM
This team is really gonna suck offensively unless a number of guys play way over their head.

reds44
03-29-2007, 09:46 PM
Power's the last thing to develop in a hitter, usually. And he's shown some flashes before.
He's 27.

The doubles point is a fair one (although that could say something about his speed too), but I'd be willing to bet he is odne developing.

jojo
03-29-2007, 09:50 PM
he hits lots of doubles.

Exactly...... That kind of power is very useful AND undervalued (making it even more useful). John Olerud did just fine without 30 hr power IMHO (check out his 1993 season for something truly awesome)....

coachw513
03-29-2007, 10:02 PM
This could work out great for Hamilton. If the kid has to get 400 PA, then I think he pretty much gets a flyer in the stats department.

My one fear with Hamilton's acclimation once the season started was a lack of regular AB's and playing time...Deno's horrible fortune has become an incredibly important factor in Josh Hamilton being able to settle in and simply play...he now KNOWS he will get regular playing time and that alone will help him to relax and simply let his talent take over...

Moeller's a lock...Conine gets OF starts and Valentin gets some starts at 1B...Hopper comes up if Freel or Griffey has an injury or Hamilton...(I can't even speak it...)

Spike
03-29-2007, 10:13 PM
Awful news about Deno, OF just went from good to pray nobody gets hurt.


This comes closest to what I felt when I heard Denorfia went down. I know there was debate on whether Denorfia would get sent down or traded, but when I read this news, I felt we went from outfield strength, to the consideration of trading for an outfielder. I didn't realize how inportant Denorfia was to the mix (although I am a fan).

I feel the team is a little unsettled right now.

Big Klu
03-29-2007, 10:13 PM
Edwin's the only guy in the entire system that scares pitchers from the right side of the plate.

David Ross has long-ball power from the right side. (Though it is still a fair question to ask whether last season was an aberration, or the real "Diamond Dave".)

jojo
03-29-2007, 10:20 PM
This comes closest to what I felt when I heard Denorfia went down. I know there was debate on whether Denorfia would get sent down or traded, but when I read this news, I felt we went from outfield strength, to the consideration of trading for an outfielder. I didn't realize how inportant Denorfia was to the mix (although I am a fan).

I feel the team is a little unsettled right now.

Yep...to me the biggest strength of the team coming out of ST was going to be their depth in the outfield...

Big Klu
03-29-2007, 10:25 PM
This comes closest to what I felt when I heard Denorfia went down. I know there was debate on whether Denorfia would get sent down or traded, but when I read this news, I felt we went from outfield strength, to the consideration of trading for an outfielder. I didn't realize how inportant Denorfia was to the mix (although I am a fan).

I feel the team is a little unsettled right now.

I agree. I have never been convinced that Denorfia was starting OF material, but I firmly believed that he was a legitimate fourth OF, which would have allowed Josh Hamilton to develop at his own pace as a fifth OF. Now Hamilton has to step up and handle the fourth OF duties, and additional OF depth is now left to Jeff Conine (who I'm fine with as a backup 1B, but did not want to count on as a 4th or 5th OF), Norris Hopper (who is fighting health issues of his own), and Bubba Crosby (who everyone had given up on and left for dead--but hey, at least he's not Dewayne Wise).

Caveat Emperor
03-29-2007, 11:56 PM
This team is really gonna suck offensively unless a number of guys play way over their head.

Yup -- namely Phillips, Hatteberg, Ross and Gonzalez. Those are 4 guys that could tank the club if they can't replicate and/or improve upon their performance from 2006. If BP's OBP dives, Hatteberg does his good year/bad year thing again, Ross can't replicate his pop, and Gonzalez is Gonzalez then you're looking at potentially 5 (4 + Pitcher) dead outs in the lineup each time through the batting order. That'll negatively impact the quality of pitches that the remaining hitters see.

PLUS, you've got the fact that Griffey and Freel can't stay healthy for a full season of games -- basically your only two reliable components on the club are Dunn and Encarnacion. The pitching is better this year, but this club isn't gonna win a lot of 2-1 games.

I think this team is in trouble unless they can identify and acquire a RH bat for the bench. Otherwise, pray like hell that Hamilton really is Roy Hobbs or that Joey Votto comes out in April batting .500 at Louisville.

Krusty
03-30-2007, 12:02 AM
Actually, it wouldn't surprise me to see Phillips hit between 20-25 home runs this season after beefing up. Also, expect Encarncion to add 25+ home runs from the right side. And both Ross and Gonzalez are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each while playing half of their games in the bandbox known as GAB.

Power from the right side? We'll just be fine.

flyer85
03-30-2007, 12:06 AM
Power from the right side? We'll just be fine.Hope for things from people that has never happened before all converging at the same time, everything will be fine.

reds44
03-30-2007, 12:08 AM
Hope for things from people that has never happened before all converging at the same time, everything will be fine.
I don't think Phillips hitting 20-25 and EE hitting 25+ is out of the question at all.

paintmered
03-30-2007, 12:09 AM
I just hope people lay off him when he struggles at the plate.

Good thing his last name isn't spelled "Dunn". :devil:

In all honesty, I hope this is the case. Maybe if he's scrappy enough, he can do no wrong and be adored in this city much like Freel is. Cincinnatians love themselves a dirty uniform.

Caveat Emperor
03-30-2007, 12:12 AM
I don't think Phillips hitting 20-25 and EE hitting 25+ is out of the question at all.

Neither is Phillips regressing down closer to the .300 OBP line -- and if you asked me which was more likely (20-25 HRs v. ~.300 OBP) I'd have to fish in my pocket for a quarter before I gave my answer.

flyer85
03-30-2007, 12:16 AM
I don't think Phillips hitting 20-25 and EE hitting 25+ is out of the question at all.then again neither is both of them hitting between ~ 15.

PECOTA says BP-13, EE-20, DR-9, AG-13

Last year they combined for 60 and thats with 3 of them having much better years than most expected.

Sure there is upside, but downside risk is there as well. A lot seem to think the Reds "crap" doesn't smell.

reds44
03-30-2007, 12:23 AM
Good for PECOTA, I'll use my own eyes. Not trying to be disrespectful to you or anything, but I respectfully don't care what they say.

flyer85
03-30-2007, 12:27 AM
pass those rose colored glasses.

reds44
03-30-2007, 12:30 AM
What was pecota's projections for EE, Phillips, Ross, and Arroyo last year? Or the Reds wins for that matter?

flyer85
03-30-2007, 12:40 AM
look, where all biased here as Reds fans. Dunn's new approach looks great, Josh Hamilton is wonder boy, Phillips looks like Sandberg in ST.

I simply use PECOTA as a reality check. Could they all go off and have great years? You bet but just because something could happen doesn't mean it is likely to happen.

If anyone in the everyday lineup sucks or gets hurt the Reds are lacking Plan B for the most part. They have some pitching options but from an offensive standpoint they are lacking.

And in the case of a guy like Phillips he doesn't even have a minor league track record that suggests the 25 HRs are possible. I certainly hope he turned a corner and his career takes off in 2007 because the Reds really have to have it. If a couple of players tank, this offense is toast.

WVPacman
03-30-2007, 02:00 AM
Kinda disappointed in Livingston being sent down.


I agree with you... I only got to watch him one time and that was last week.He looked unhitable.The announcers on tv said he looked that way all spring.

redsrule2500
03-30-2007, 04:02 AM
I like how we have nothing to show for Kearns, Lopez :(

Ron Madden
03-30-2007, 05:06 AM
Good thing his last name isn't spelled "Dunn". :devil:

In all honesty, I hope this is the case. Maybe if he's scrappy enough, he can do no wrong and be adored in this city much like Freel is. Cincinnatians love themselves a dirty uniform.

The casual fan will be ok with Hamilton...

Untill the announcers, beat writers or radio talk show host begin to question his ability.

Ron Madden
03-30-2007, 05:12 AM
Sad news concerning Deno. I've been one of his biggest fans, I wish him a speedy recovery and the best of luck from here on out.

jojo
03-30-2007, 08:12 AM
What was pecota's projections for EE, Phillips, Ross, and Arroyo last year? Or the Reds wins for that matter?

I'd argue that Pecota was very reasonable with those guys last year:

EE:
Pecota weighted mean: .275/.344/.485
2006 Actual: .276/.359/.473

Brandon Phillips (his projection was for an extreme pitchers park in the AL)
Pecota weighted mean: .251/.306/.371 (if adjusted for the league change & GABP: .264/.316./.396
2006 Actual: .276/.324/.427

It should also be noted that they scored him with a 38% breakout and 63% improve rate.... even if you still think pecota missed the raw projection, it clearly said he was a safe bet to have an "establish himself" type year.

David Ross (his projection was for an extreme pitcher's park)
Pecota weighted mean: .225/.292/.380
2006 Actual: .255/.353/.579

Even with the park adjustment, Pecota missed in my estimation. But then again so did every baseball fan on the face of the planet-including his mother. Good for Ross.

Bronson Arroyo (his projection was for a league where he actually has to face a lineup containing 9 guys that can hit)
Pecota weighted mean: IP: 200; FIP: 4.29 (based upon his projected counting stats):
2006 Actual:: IP: 240; FIP: 4.14;

Adjust for the league and Pecota was dead on accurate. As for the IP, how could Pecota be expected to accurately predict what Narron would do? It clearly indicated he would be a workhorse.

Also recognize that Pecota scored him with a 63% upside. They correctly called that his '06 would be more like his '04 than his '05.

Pecota 2006 pythag: 76-86 (for a team with womack starting at 2b and Williams in the rotation).

Actual 2006 pythag: 80-82

Now concerning the Pecota pythag, it's really not a direct construction of Pecota. It's basically pecota weighted means plus alot of assumptions on playing time based upon the roster depth chart in early March, and then some translations. So if the pythag is off, you can't automatically assume it's Pecota's fault.... besides, the predicted pythags aren't offered as absolutes but rather a reasonable expectation.

So in summary, I'd argue Pecota did a nice job with those guys and the reds in general.

Heath
03-30-2007, 10:37 AM
I'd argue that Pecota was very reasonable with those guys last year:

EE:
Pecota weighted mean: .275/.344/.485
2006 Actual: .276/.359/.473

Brandon Phillips (his projection was for an extreme pitchers park in the AL)
Pecota weighted mean: .251/.306/.371 (if adjusted for the league change & GABP: .264/.316./.396
2006 Actual: .276/.324/.427

It should also be noted that they scored him with a 38% breakout and 63% improve rate.... even if you still think pecota missed the raw projection, it clearly said he was a safe bet to have an "establish himself" type year.

David Ross (his projection was for an extreme pitcher's park)
Pecota weighted mean: .225/.292/.380
2006 Actual: .255/.353/.579

Even with the park adjustment, Pecota missed in my estimation. But then again so did every baseball fan on the face of the planet-including his mother. Good for Ross.

Bronson Arroyo (his projection was for a league where he actually has to face a lineup containing 9 guys that can hit)
Pecota weighted mean: IP: 200; FIP: 4.29 (based upon his projected counting stats):
2006 Actual:: IP: 240; FIP: 4.14;

Adjust for the league and Pecota was dead on accurate. As for the IP, how could Pecota be expected to accurately predict what Narron would do? It clearly indicated he would be a workhorse.

Also recognize that Pecota scored him with a 63% upside. They correctly called that his '06 would be more like his '04 than his '05.

Pecota 2006 pythag: 76-86 (for a team with womack starting at 2b and Williams in the rotation).

Actual 2006 pythag: 80-82

Now concerning the Pecota pythag, it's really not a direct construction of Pecota. It's basically pecota weighted means plus alot of assumptions on playing time based upon the roster depth chart in early March, and then some translations. So if the pythag is off, you can't automatically assume it's Pecota's fault.... besides, the predicted pythags aren't offered as absolutes but rather a reasonable expectation.

So in summary, I'd argue Pecota did a nice job with those guys and the reds in general.


Thanks for the history lesson, Jojo.

Now, I'm going to have to neg you for bringing up the name "Womack".

:evil:

Roy Tucker
03-30-2007, 10:45 AM
Now, I'm going to have to neg you for bringing up the name "Womack".

:evil:

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named.

BRM
03-30-2007, 10:53 AM
Speaking of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, he can play outfield right? Well, the Reds could use some outfield depth. :evil:

Heath
03-30-2007, 10:55 AM
Speaking of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, he can play outfield right? Well, the Reds could use some outfield depth. :evil:

The only depth T-Woe brings is his own backhoe to dig his own grave.

Chip R
03-30-2007, 11:02 AM
Speaking of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, he can play outfield right? Well, the Reds could use some outfield depth. :evil:


That's not funny.

BRM
03-30-2007, 11:03 AM
That's not funny.

C'mon Chip. I thought you were one of his biggest supporters. ;)

jojo
03-30-2007, 11:35 AM
Thanks for the history lesson, Jojo.

Now, I'm going to have to neg you for bringing up the name "Womack".

:evil:

Does this mean you were OK with Williams in the rotation? :mooner:


:beerme:

KySteveH
03-30-2007, 11:55 AM
Heck, I'd take Dennis Hopper over Moller.

I'd take Grace Hopper, or even Mr. Hooper over Moeller.

coachw513
03-30-2007, 12:27 PM
I'd argue that Pecota was very reasonable with those guys last year:

EE:
Pecota weighted mean: .275/.344/.485
2006 Actual: .276/.359/.473

Brandon Phillips (his projection was for an extreme pitchers park in the AL)
Pecota weighted mean: .251/.306/.371 (if adjusted for the league change & GABP: .264/.316./.396
2006 Actual: .276/.324/.427

It should also be noted that they scored him with a 38% breakout and 63% improve rate.... even if you still think pecota missed the raw projection, it clearly said he was a safe bet to have an "establish himself" type year.

David Ross (his projection was for an extreme pitcher's park)
Pecota weighted mean: .225/.292/.380
2006 Actual: .255/.353/.579

Even with the park adjustment, Pecota missed in my estimation. But then again so did every baseball fan on the face of the planet-including his mother. Good for Ross.

Bronson Arroyo (his projection was for a league where he actually has to face a lineup containing 9 guys that can hit)
Pecota weighted mean: IP: 200; FIP: 4.29 (based upon his projected counting stats):
2006 Actual:: IP: 240; FIP: 4.14;

Adjust for the league and Pecota was dead on accurate. As for the IP, how could Pecota be expected to accurately predict what Narron would do? It clearly indicated he would be a workhorse.

Also recognize that Pecota scored him with a 63% upside. They correctly called that his '06 would be more like his '04 than his '05.

Pecota 2006 pythag: 76-86 (for a team with womack starting at 2b and Williams in the rotation).

Actual 2006 pythag: 80-82

Now concerning the Pecota pythag, it's really not a direct construction of Pecota. It's basically pecota weighted means plus alot of assumptions on playing time based upon the roster depth chart in early March, and then some translations. So if the pythag is off, you can't automatically assume it's Pecota's fault.... besides, the predicted pythags aren't offered as absolutes but rather a reasonable expectation.

So in summary, I'd argue Pecota did a nice job with those guys and the reds in general.

Forgive if this dives into the depths of ignorance, but where would I find both an explanation of PECOTA and to find their data???...

Oh, and very detailed point-by-point post :thumbup:

jojo
03-30-2007, 12:33 PM
Forgive if this dives into the depths of ignorance, but where would I find both an explanation of PECOTA and to find their data???...

Oh, and very detailed point-by-point post :thumbup:

Try here (http://www.baseballprospectus.com)....

I think you can solve most of the worlds most pressing issues there (at least the ones that really matter)....

All kidding aside, it's a great website but not the end all...

Ltlabner
03-30-2007, 12:36 PM
I just hope that Deno going down, and Freels stupid abandon inspired injury doesn't mean Jr will slide back over to CF. For the days Hamilton needs a rest (or god forbid he explodes) I can see Jr in CF and Conine in RF.

:cry:

BRM
03-30-2007, 12:38 PM
I just hope that Deno going down, and Freels stupid abandon inspired injury doesn't mean Jr will slide back over to CF. For the days Hamilton needs a rest (or god forbid he explodes) I can see Jr in CF and Conine in RF.

:cry:

A Dunn, Junior, Conine OF. That's a scary bad OF right there.

Ltlabner
03-30-2007, 12:39 PM
A Dunn, Junior, Conine OF. That's a scary bad OF right there.

I feal queezy even thinking about it.

KronoRed
03-30-2007, 01:33 PM
A Dunn, Junior, Conine OF. That's a scary bad OF right there.

Could be worse.

Freel JR Conine:eek:

BRM
03-30-2007, 01:37 PM
Could be worse.

Freel JR Conine:eek:

That would be an ugrade defensively, a downgrade offensively.

KronoRed
03-30-2007, 01:46 PM
That would be an ugrade defensively, a downgrade offensively.

Untill Freel hurt both of them, then it would be Freel AAA guy 1 and AAA guy 2.:eek:

redsrule2500
03-30-2007, 01:46 PM
Could be worse.

Freel JR Conine:eek:

And how is that worse...?:eek: :confused:

EDIT: Okay, offensively, yes, but I thought we were talking defense.

registerthis
03-30-2007, 02:14 PM
Actually, it wouldn't surprise me to see Phillips hit between 20-25 home runs this season after beefing up. Also, expect Encarncion to add 25+ home runs from the right side. And both Ross and Gonzalez are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each while playing half of their games in the bandbox known as GAB.

Power from the right side? We'll just be fine.

25 HRs from Phillips?

You're dreaming.

OnBaseMachine
03-30-2007, 07:56 PM
25 HRs from Phillips?

You're dreaming.

While I don't think he'll hit 25 homers this year (my guess is around 15-20), it's not completely out of the realism that he can hit 25. He did hit 17 last year in 536 atbats while compiling the majority of his atbats in the #6 and 7 holes in the lineup. If Narron does indeed bat Phillips third in the order then 25 homers is possible, though not likely.

Caveat Emperor
03-30-2007, 09:23 PM
While I don't think he'll hit 25 homers this year (my guess is around 15-20), it's not completely out of the realism that he can hit 25.

Without going into too much detail, Phillips will have a difficult time getting above the 20 HR plataeu without becoming more selective about the pitches he chooses to swing at.

I'd also like to see his doubles totals go up -- he's got the speed, its just a matter of choosing better pitches to drive down the line and into the gaps.