PDA

View Full Version : Think This Trade Would Fly?



Krusty
04-03-2007, 01:14 PM
Since we have gotten Opening Day out of the way, it is time for Wayne K. to start making his moves. And what better way than to get that closer the Reds need:

Reds trade RHP Todd Coffey to Houston for RHP Brad Lidge.

Last I heard, the Astros are entertaining offers for Lidge, whom they think needs a change of scenery. Lidge hasn't been the same since he gave up the home run to Pujols two years ago. And blowing his first save of the season yesterday, it didn't take the boo birds long to get on him. The Astros can turn the closing chores over to Dan Wheeler while Coffey can help with the setup role along with Chad Qualls.

For the Reds they get a veteran closer in Lidge while Stanton and Weathers move to the setup roles. Losing Coffey is offset with the young arms the Reds have in the pen and at Louisville (Majewski, Bray & Salmon). Opinions?

RedLegSuperStar
04-03-2007, 01:18 PM
if we want someone to blow saves why dont we sign Danny Graves? no.. but Lidge's price tag probably is higher than just Coffey

texasdave
04-03-2007, 01:21 PM
No questions asked I would do that trade. Send Milton along and split his salary so that the total trade comes out salary neutral.

He is much better than people around Houston believe he is. He saved 32 of 38 last year. That is roughly 85% save rate. Eddie G. only converted 8 of 10 save chances. That works out to 80%. Brad Lidge would look good in a Reds' uniform.

Jaycint
04-03-2007, 01:24 PM
No questions asked I would do that trade. Send Milton along and split his salary so that the total trade comes out salary neutral.

Eric Milton pitching in Houston would be a sight to behold. Then he'd just need a midseason trade to Colorado to complete his circuit of the Four Ballparks of the Apocalypse (Philly, Cincy, Houston and Colorado).

RedEye
04-03-2007, 01:25 PM
Lidge is done. The last thing we need is a closer with confidence issues.

Jaycint
04-03-2007, 01:30 PM
Lidge is done. The last thing we need is a closer with confidence issues.

Agreed, it's a shame too. He was one of the most dominant closers I have seen for a couple year span. Of course so was Gagne but his decline has been more physical in nature.

Seems like with the exception of a few (Rivera, Hoffman, etc.) dominant closers burn out really quick compared to other positions.

edabbs44
04-03-2007, 01:32 PM
No thanks. I'll take Coffey over him at this point.

PuffyPig
04-03-2007, 01:39 PM
No questions asked I would do that trade. Send Milton along and split his salary so that the total trade comes out salary neutral.



That's apples and oranges. Adding Milton to any trade is like adding ketchup to a chocolate cake mix.

Trading our best reliever (in terms of trade value) for a 1 year rental of Lidge (who's expensive and stinks) is not the way to rebuild the Reds.

BTW, I seem to recall that each of Fast Eddies 2 blown saves last year were unearned runs.

pedro
04-03-2007, 01:40 PM
no thanks.

edabbs44
04-03-2007, 01:43 PM
Here's a guy I wouldn't mind WK making a run at...

Brewers RHP Jose Capellan, who was sent to the minors in the final player cut of spring, notified the Brewers that he would like to be traded to another team. Capellan made 61 appearances for the Brewers last season.

jojo
04-03-2007, 01:47 PM
I think you correctly identify Lidge as a better bullpen arm then Coffey (based upon K/9 and K/BB-two pretty important attributes for the pen). Basically their FIPs are pretty similar but Lidge has better peripherals (I all but ignore ERA for pitchers especially bullpen arms).

Here's the thing though.... you'd be giving up 5 years of cheap Coffey to get roughly two expensive years of Lidge (at $5M this year and who knows next year). I think there is wiggle room to get the Astros to either give up more or take some salary back....

M2
04-03-2007, 01:49 PM
I'd only do that trade if Mitch Williams, Byung-Hyun Kim and the ghost of Donnie Moore were thrown in.

Honestly, Brad Lidge is toast and he ought to retire before he does himself irreparable psychological damage.

Jpup
04-03-2007, 01:56 PM
Trade them Jr. for Lidge straight up.

LincolnparkRed
04-03-2007, 01:57 PM
Here's a guy I wouldn't mind WK making a run at...

Brewers RHP Jose Capellan, who was sent to the minors in the final player cut of spring, notified the Brewers that he would like to be traded to another team. Capellan made 61 appearances for the Brewers last season.

I wondered about him as well but you would think with all the problems the Brewers had, if he was any good, he would be on the roster over Vargas, Villeneuva, or Matt Wise?

TeamSelig
04-03-2007, 03:25 PM
Junior, Coffey, Milton

for

Luke Scott, Brad Lidge, and a prospect

Highlifeman21
04-03-2007, 05:14 PM
Junior, Coffey, Milton

for

Luke Scott, Brad Lidge, and a prospect

Why send them Coffey? The kid seems to love Cincinnati, and he's perhaps one of the only reliable relievers we have, so why would we ship him off for an unreliable headcase?

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 06:19 PM
No thanks. The Reds get the short end of the stick.

jojo
04-03-2007, 07:02 PM
No thanks. The Reds get the short end of the stick.

Because mostly, they'd get a better pitcher in return and that wouldn't fly in cincy?

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 07:06 PM
Because mostly, they'd get a better pitcher in return and that wouldn't fly in cincy?

2006:

Todd Coffey - 3.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Brad Lidge - 5.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Coffey was better than Lidge last year and will be in the future IMO. Coffey is going to have a breakout season while Lidge looks like a totally different pitcher from the one we saw in 2005.

Similar amount of baserunners but Coffey allowed less HR (hence lower ERA).

pedro
04-03-2007, 07:09 PM
Because mostly, they'd get a better pitcher in return and that wouldn't fly in cincy?


I'm not confident enough that Lidge will rebound to advocate risking adding 5 mill to the payroll.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 07:13 PM
I'm not confident enough that Lidge will rebound to advocate risking adding 5 mill to the payroll.

Plus Coffey is four years younger.

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:11 PM
2006:

Todd Coffey - 3.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Brad Lidge - 5.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Coffey was better than Lidge last year and will be in the future IMO. Coffey is going to have a breakout season while Lidge looks like a totally different pitcher from the one we saw in 2005.

Similar amount of baserunners but Coffey allowed less HR (hence lower ERA).

ERA us useless in most cases but it's especially useless for relievers...

Lidge struggled with his control last season and STILL was better than Coffey.. His k/9 was twice that of Coffey's and despite struggling with command at times, Lidge's FIP was still better than Coffey's.

For 2007, a summary of projection systems predict Lidge will have a FIP almost a *run* lower than Coffey, a k/9 almost double that of coffey and a K/BB of almost 1 greater....

There's no reason to think Coffey is going to be significantly different than he was last season....

edabbs44
04-03-2007, 08:13 PM
ERA us useless in most cases but it's especially useless for relievers...

Lidge struggled with his control last season and STILL was better than Coffey.. His k/9 was twice that of Coffey's and despite struggling with command at times, Lidge's FIP was still better than Coffey's.

For 2007, a summary of projection systems predict Lidge will have a FIP almost a *run* lower than Coffey, a k/9 almost double that of coffey and a K/BB of almost 1 greater....

There's no reason to think Coffey is going to be significantly different than he was last season....

As I say in many a post like these...in The Steroid Era, when former all-stars lose their touch in their supposed prime, you have to stop and wonder.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 08:22 PM
Todd Coffey will have a better 2007 season than Brad Lidge, just like he did last year. Coffey is a groundball pitcher, so he will benefit greatly from the improved defense up the middle.

TC81190
04-03-2007, 08:26 PM
ERA us useless in most cases but it's especially useless for relievers...

Lidge struggled with his control last season and STILL was better than Coffey.. His k/9 was twice that of Coffey's and despite struggling with command at times, Lidge's FIP was still better than Coffey's.

For 2007, a summary of projection systems predict Lidge will have a FIP almost a *run* lower than Coffey, a k/9 almost double that of coffey and a K/BB of almost 1 greater....

There's no reason to think Coffey is going to be significantly different than he was last season....

I'm not sure how giving up gobs of runs is useless information, and Lidge is very hittable now, having lost confidence in all his pitches.

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:32 PM
As I say in many a post like these...in The Steroid Era, when former all-stars lose their touch in their supposed prime, you have to stop and wonder.

He didn't lose any velocity...his K/9 was over 12, and he didn't lose his bounce back ability etc (78 appearances).... he actually converted on 84% of his save opportunities... he basically had some command issues.

If he would've been a Red last year, it's very likely the Reds would've won the division.

It's pretty reckless to claim he's a steroid user....

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:33 PM
Todd Coffey will have a better 2007 season than Brad Lidge, just like he did last year.

You can only say that by ignoring ALOT of facts....

TC81190
04-03-2007, 08:34 PM
You can only say that by ignoring ALOT of facts....

And as can you, by ignoring the fact that he bled runs.

edabbs44
04-03-2007, 08:42 PM
He didn't lose any velocity...his K/9 was over 12, and he didn't lose his bounce back ability etc (78 appearances).... he actually converted on 84% of his save opportunities... he basically had some command issues.

If he would've been a Red last year, it's very likely the Reds would've won the division.

It's pretty reckless to claim he's a steroid user....

Reckless? No. It's just that when people go from top flight to barely average (and worse, in some cases) without any explanation, it makes you wonder if that person ever naturally had it to begin with. So the possibility of them ever getting back to where they were is a huge question. If you look at a lot of the names who all of a sudden "lost it" around when testing started, it makes you wonder.

With Lidge, I'd have either questions about his training or about the health of his arm. Either way, I don't want any piece of him.

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:46 PM
I'm not sure how giving up gobs of runs is useless information, and Lidge is very hittable now, having lost confidence in all his pitches.

I guess you can evaluate a pitcher in a way that's useful or you can focus on ERA....

But just for the record....Lidge faced 340 batters last season and gave up 69 hits. Coffey faced 340 batters last season and gave up 85 hits...

If Lidge is very hittable, Coffey is a torch...

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:47 PM
Coffey is a groundball pitcher, so he will benefit greatly from the improved defense up the middle.

Bottom of the ninth..... tie game, runner on third with one out.... do you bring in the groundball pitcher or the strikeout artist?

jojo
04-03-2007, 08:50 PM
And as can you, by ignoring the fact that he bled runs.

Like I said, you can evaluate a pitcher in a useful way or by using ERA....

TC81190
04-03-2007, 08:50 PM
Bottom of the ninth..... tie game, runner on third with one out.... do you bring in the groundball pitcher or the strikeout artist?

I'd bring in the guy NOT scarred for life from a postseason HR.

TC81190
04-03-2007, 08:50 PM
Like I said, you can evaluate a pitcher in a useful way or by using ERA....

Yeah, because runs, yeah those are useless.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 08:51 PM
Bottom of the ninth..... tie game, runner on third with one out.... do you bring in the groundball pitcher or the strikeout artist?

Todd Coffey can get that big K when needed. His K/9 last year was slightly under 7.00, not bad at all.

jojo
04-03-2007, 09:01 PM
Todd Coffey can get that big K when needed. His K/9 last year was slightly under 7.00, not bad at all.

He just chooses to not do it as often as other quality bullpens arms? He just saves them for special occasions?

jojo
04-03-2007, 09:02 PM
Yeah, because runs, yeah those are useless.

I'm glad you're starting to see the light.... all snarkiness aside, the point is this....a pitcher doesn't necesarily have control over runs...there are ALOT of variables that can effect whether a run scores on a pitcher's watch.... thus focusing on the pitcher's peripherals as a true measure of his skillset is a more useful way of measuring his effectiveness...

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2007, 09:19 PM
He just chooses to not do it as often as other quality bullpens arms? He just saves them for special occasions?

Yeah, that's what I said. :rolleyes:

You win, Brad Lidge is the greatest. Who cares that he blew that save yesterday, at least he got a strikeout!

jojo
04-03-2007, 09:24 PM
Yeah, that's what I said. :rolleyes:

You win, Brad Lidge is the greatest. Who cares that he blew that save yesterday, at least he got a strikeout!

Yeah, that's what I said. :rolleyes:

M2
04-03-2007, 11:26 PM
Bottom of the ninth..... tie game, runner on third with one out.... do you bring in the groundball pitcher or the strikeout artist?

I bring in a pitcher whose brain isn't twisted so tight that he's constantly on the verge of implosion. Brad Lidge doesn't want to have a baseball in his hand and what happened last year was just the second act of that tragedy.

camisadelgolf
04-04-2007, 03:46 AM
Many closers, Guardado included, have been said to have had confidence issues and then lit it up for other teams. Sometimes, a change of scenery is all that's needed. That aside, I would throw in a low-level prospect with Coffey and do this trade only if Houston covers the difference in salary.