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paintmered
04-05-2007, 10:31 AM
Two games into the season is not too early to start this year's pythag tracking. My goal this year is to determine how early the Pythag can fairly accurately predict end of the season results. Last year, Pythag had the Tigers pegged for the post-season by early/mid May.

For an explanation on baseball's Pythagorean theorem, go here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=342

I will be using 1.87 for my exponent since it is historically the most accurate, but anything between 1.82-1.90 will produce very similar results.

Games = No. of games played to date
W = No. of games won to date
L = No. of games lost to date
PCT = Current winning percentage
RS = Runs scored to date
RA = Runs allowed to date
P PCT = Pythagorean winning percentage
P Wins = Pythagorean wins to date
P Diff = Difference between Pythagorean wins and actual wins. A negative value means that a team will likely regress in the future. A positive value means a team will likely play better in the future.
P Won = Pythagorean prediction of number of wins over the full season
P Loss = Pythagorean prediction of number of losses over the full season


AL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
NY Yankees 1 1 0 1.000 9 5 0.750 1 0 122 40
Toronto 2 1 1 0.500 14 13 0.535 1 0 87 75
Boston 2 1 1 0.500 8 8 0.500 1 0 81 81
Tampa Bay 1 0 1 0.000 5 9 0.250 0 0 40 122
Baltimore 3 0 3 0.000 8 17 0.196 1 1 32 130

AL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Minnesota 3 3 0 1.000 17 8 0.804 2 -1 130 32
Cleveland 2 2 0 1.000 20 12 0.722 1 -1 117 45
Kansas City 2 1 1 0.500 8 8 0.500 1 0 81 81
Detroit 2 1 1 0.500 13 14 0.465 1 0 75 87
Chicago Sox 2 0 2 0.000 12 20 0.278 1 1 45 117

AL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
LA Angels 3 3 0 1.000 17 7 0.840 3 0 136 26
Seattle 3 2 1 0.667 12 13 0.463 1 -1 75 87
Oakland 3 1 2 0.333 13 12 0.537 2 1 87 75
Texas 3 0 3 0.000 7 17 0.160 0 0 26 136

NL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
NY Mets 3 3 0 1.000 20 2 0.987 3 0 160 2
Atlanta 2 2 0 1.000 8 5 0.707 1 -1 114 48
Florida 3 2 1 0.667 24 12 0.785 2 0 127 35
Washington 3 1 2 0.333 12 24 0.215 1 0 35 127
Philadelphia 2 0 2 0.000 5 8 0.293 1 1 48 114

NL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Pittsburgh 3 3 0 1.000 12 8 0.681 2 -1 110 52
Milwaukee 3 2 1 0.667 15 9 0.722 2 0 117 45
Cincinnati 2 1 1 0.500 6 5 0.584 1 0 95 67
Chicago Cubs 2 1 1 0.500 5 6 0.416 1 0 67 95
St. Louis 3 0 3 0.000 2 20 0.013 0 0 2 160
Houston 3 0 3 0.000 8 12 0.319 1 1 52 110

NL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
San Diego 2 2 0 1.000 12 3 0.930 2 0 151 11
Colorado 3 2 1 0.667 21 15 0.652 2 0 106 56
Arizona 3 1 2 0.333 15 21 0.348 1 0 56 106
LA Dodgers 3 1 2 0.333 9 15 0.278 1 0 45 117
San Francisco 2 0 2 0.000 3 12 0.070 0 0 11 151

Rex Argos
04-05-2007, 10:34 AM
I especially like that it projects St. Louis for a 2-160 season. I guess it fails to account for the fact that LaRussa is a genius. ;)

BRM
04-05-2007, 10:35 AM
Did Raisor give you permission to start this thread?

paintmered
04-05-2007, 10:37 AM
Did Raisor give you permission to start this thread?

He received his royalties.

BRM
04-05-2007, 10:40 AM
He received his royalties.

Good. I'd hate to have an angry Raisor running around here.

RichRed
04-05-2007, 11:15 AM
I especially like that it projects St. Louis for a 2-160 season.

That would be, like, a record or something.

Puffy
04-05-2007, 11:54 AM
He received his royalties.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/916060/raisor.jpg

RFS62
04-05-2007, 03:24 PM
Greatest picture ever.

paintmered
04-06-2007, 02:56 PM
April 6, 2007 Update.


AL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Boston 3 2 1 .667 12 9 .631 2 0 102 60
NY Yankees 2 1 1 .500 15 12 .603 1 0 98 64
Toronto 2 1 1 .500 14 13 .535 1 0 87 75
Tampa Bay 2 1 1 .500 12 15 .397 1 0 64 98
Baltimore 3 0 3 .000 8 17 .196 1 1 32 130

AL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Minnesota 3 3 0 1.000 17 8 .804 2 -1 130 32
Cleveland 3 2 1 .667 23 16 .663 2 0 107 55
Detroit 2 1 1 .500 13 14 .465 1 0 75 87
Kansas City 3 1 2 .333 9 12 .369 1 0 60 102
Chicago Sox 3 1 2 .333 16 23 .337 1 0 55 107

AL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
LA Angels 4 3 1 .750 20 11 .754 3 0 122 40
Seattle 3 2 1 .667 12 13 .463 1 -1 75 87
Oakland 4 2 2 .500 17 15 .558 2 0 90 72
Texas 3 0 3 .000 7 17 .160 0 0 26 136

NL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Atlanta 3 3 0 1.000 16 9 .746 2 -1 121 41
NY Mets 3 3 0 1.000 20 2 .987 3 0 160 2
Florida 3 2 1 .667 24 12 .785 2 0 127 35
Washington 4 1 3 .250 15 28 .237 1 0 38 124
Philadelphia 3 0 3 .000 9 16 .254 1 1 41 121

NL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Pittsburgh 3 3 0 1.000 12 8 .681 2 -1 110 52
Milwaukee 3 2 1 .667 15 9 .722 2 0 117 45
Cincinnati 3 2 1 .667 11 7 .700 2 0 113 49
Chicago Cubs 3 1 2 .333 7 11 .300 1 0 49 113
St. Louis 3 0 3 .000 2 20 .013 0 0 2 160
Houston 3 0 3 .000 8 12 .319 1 1 52 110

NL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Wins P Diff P Won P Loss
Colorado 3 2 1 .667 21 15 .652 2 0 106 56
San Diego 3 2 1 .667 15 8 .764 2 0 124 38
Arizona 4 2 2 .500 19 24 .392 2 0 64 98
LA Dodgers 3 1 2 .333 9 15 .278 1 0 45 117
San Francisco 3 1 2 .333 8 15 .236 1 0 38 124

Raisor
04-06-2007, 03:01 PM
He received his royalties.

The heck I did!

Redszone better pay up, or else....

Raisor
04-06-2007, 03:02 PM
Good. I'd hate to have an angry Raisor running around here.

You have NO idea.

Chip R
04-06-2007, 03:08 PM
The heck I did!

Redszone better pay up, or else....


Mods get a taste of that.

Just sayin'.

Raisor
04-06-2007, 03:09 PM
Mods get a taste of that.

Just sayin'.

As long as I don't have to cut in Bad Fun, it's fine

:devil:

Caveat Emperor
04-06-2007, 03:15 PM
Not that it means anything, but the Reds have given up the second fewest runs in baseball after 3 games.

paintmered
04-07-2007, 08:47 AM
April 7, 2007 Update.


AL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Tampa Bay 3 2 1 0.667 18 20 0.451 1 -1 73 89
Boston 4 2 2 0.500 12 11 0.541 2 0 88 74
NY Yankees 3 1 2 0.333 19 18 0.525 2 1 85 77
Toronto 3 1 2 0.333 19 19 0.500 2 1 81 81
Baltimore 4 1 3 0.250 14 21 0.319 1 0 52 110

AL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Minnesota 3 3 0 1.000 17 8 0.804 2 -1 130 32
Cleveland 3 2 1 0.667 23 16 0.663 2 0 107 55
Kansas City 4 2 2 0.500 12 13 0.463 2 0 75 87
Detroit 3 1 2 0.333 14 17 0.410 1 0 66 96
Chicago Sox 3 1 2 0.333 16 23 0.337 1 0 55 107

AL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
LA Angels 5 4 1 0.800 25 13 0.773 4 0 125 37
Seattle 3 2 1 0.667 12 13 0.463 1 -1 75 87
Oakland 5 2 3 0.400 19 20 0.476 2 0 77 85
Texas 4 1 3 0.250 9 17 0.233 1 0 38 124

NL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
NY Mets 4 4 0 1.000 31 3 0.987 4 0 160 2
Atlanta 4 3 1 0.750 17 20 0.425 2 -1 69 93
Florida 4 2 2 0.500 26 20 0.620 2 0 100 62
Philadelphia 4 1 3 0.250 17 18 0.473 2 1 77 85
Washington 5 1 4 0.200 16 35 0.188 1 0 30 132

NL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Cincinnati 4 3 1 0.750 17 8 0.804 3 0 130 32
Pittsburgh 4 3 1 0.750 13 14 0.465 2 -1 75 87
Chicago Cubs 4 2 2 0.500 16 14 0.562 2 0 91 71
Milwaukee 4 2 2 0.500 18 18 0.500 2 0 81 81
St. Louis 4 1 3 0.250 6 22 0.081 0 -1 13 149
Houston 4 0 4 0.000 10 16 0.293 1 1 48 114

NL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Colorado 4 3 1 0.750 25 18 0.649 3 0 105 57
Arizona 5 3 2 0.600 26 25 0.518 3 0 84 78
San Diego 4 2 2 0.500 18 12 0.681 3 1 110 52
LA Dodgers 4 2 2 0.500 11 16 0.332 1 -1 54 108
San Francisco 4 1 3 0.250 9 17 0.233 1 0 38 124

paintmered
04-08-2007, 10:29 AM
April 8, 2007 update.

Today's interesting tidbit: The Reds have scored the most runs in the NL Central and allowed the fewest.


AL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Tampa Bay 4 2 2 0.500 23 28 0.409 2 0 66 96
NY Yankees 4 2 2 0.500 29 25 0.569 2 0 92 70
Toronto 4 2 2 0.500 27 24 0.555 2 0 90 72
Boston 5 2 3 0.400 16 19 0.420 2 0 68 94
Baltimore 5 1 4 0.200 21 31 0.326 2 1 53 109

AL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Minnesota 4 3 1 0.750 17 11 0.693 3 0 112 50
Cleveland 3 2 1 0.667 23 16 0.663 2 0 107 55
Detroit 4 2 2 0.500 20 22 0.456 2 0 74 88
Chicago Sox 4 2 2 0.500 19 23 0.412 2 0 67 95
Kansas City 5 2 3 0.400 17 19 0.448 2 0 73 89

AL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
LA Angels 6 5 1 0.833 27 14 0.773 5 0 125 37
Seattle 3 2 1 0.667 12 13 0.463 1 -1 75 87
Texas 5 2 3 0.400 17 21 0.402 2 0 65 97
Oakland 6 2 4 0.333 20 22 0.456 3 1 74 88

NL EAST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Atlanta 5 4 1 0.800 22 23 0.479 2 -2 78 84
NY Mets 5 4 1 0.800 34 8 0.937 5 1 152 10
Florida 5 3 2 0.600 34 25 0.640 3 0 104 58
Philadelphia 5 1 4 0.200 22 26 0.423 2 1 68 94
Washington 6 1 5 0.167 17 42 0.156 1 0 25 137

NL CENTRAL Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Cincinnati 5 4 1 0.800 24 13 0.759 4 0 123 39
Pittsburgh 5 3 2 0.600 18 21 0.428 2 -1 69 93
Chicago Cubs 5 3 2 0.600 22 17 0.618 3 0 100 62
Milwaukee 5 2 3 0.400 21 24 0.438 2 0 71 91
St. Louis 5 1 4 0.200 7 27 0.074 0 -1 12 150
Houston 5 1 4 0.200 15 17 0.442 2 1 72 90

NL WEST Games W L PCT RS RA P PCT P Win P Diff P Won P Loss
Arizona 6 4 2 0.667 33 26 0.610 4 0 99 63
LA Dodgers 5 3 2 0.600 15 17 0.442 2 -1 72 90
San Diego 5 3 2 0.600 21 14 0.681 3 0 110 52
Colorado 5 3 2 0.600 27 21 0.615 3 0 100 62
San Francisco 5 1 4 0.200 10 21 0.200 1 0 32 130

jesusfan
04-08-2007, 11:56 AM
Let's keep it rolling!:roll:

pahster
04-08-2007, 11:57 AM
The Mets have a healthy run differential.

DoogMinAmo
04-08-2007, 12:27 PM
Atlanta must have gotten rocked in their lone loss to have that differential. Talk about overperforming your pythag.

paintmered
04-08-2007, 12:33 PM
Atlanta must have gotten rocked in their lone loss to have that differential. Talk about overperforming your pythag.

Scores for the Braves this year.

5-3 W
3-2 W
8-4 W
1-11 L
5-3 W

Yeah, you could say they got rocked in that lone loss.

TeamSelig
04-08-2007, 10:37 PM
123-29!

Cyclone792
05-18-2007, 10:06 PM
Pythag has just chased this Reds team straight into a black hole.

Not long ago, even when the Reds were slipping, pythag was still being kind and still had them pinned as a .520 ballclub with a projected record of around 84-78. But pythag is far from inept, and he knows what's going on. Now, with a runs scored total of 185 and runs allowed total of 198, pythag's down to a .469 winning percentage, and that's a 76-86 record over 162 games.

FWIW, the Reds' current winning percentage is .381, and that's a 62-100 record over 162 games.

pedro
05-18-2007, 10:10 PM
It's been a long time since I've seen a team completely collapse like the Reds are this year. I really thought they'd better than this.

I know it's hard to blame the manager for the players woes but at this point I think it's fairly evident that they need a change of direction in the dugout. There is just no excuse for starting Juan Castro. I've generally stuck up for Krivsky but if he can't see how screwed up Narron's approach is then maybe it's time to re-evaluate him as well. It's one thing to have Castro on the team as a late inning defensive replacement. It's quite another to allow the manager to start him.

I'm just disgusted with this team right now.

camisadelgolf
05-19-2007, 04:19 AM
If the Reds played to their Pythag. record, they'd be half a game out of second place. The play on the field would still be frustrating, but those four games would make a huge difference in the optimism of the fans. I'm still on the "It's early . . . " bandwagon, but to be realistic, this isn't exactly a first-place team, even when they do play as well as they should.