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View Full Version : Do you like the new REDS?



Eric_Davis
04-05-2007, 02:54 PM
If you haven't noticed by now, gone are the 8-7 and 9-8 victories.

The last couple of years we could actually be down 6-1 and not be worried, knowing there would be a chance for us to win the game 8-7.

This club is built around winning the 5-4 games and 4-3 games. And, with Arroyo and Harang we should win our share of the 3-2 games.

I prefer it this way, as I don't see us being down 5 runs after 5 innings as often this year. We obviously have an improved defense, an offense that's not as good, and I think pitching depth, especially when call-ups are made (Santos, Bray, Livingston, and others), has improved.

Small things (or small mistakes) can be the difference in many games this year (you hear that Ryan?).

dougdirt
04-05-2007, 02:59 PM
Give it time. We will still have our share of 8-7 games.

redsfan30
04-05-2007, 03:07 PM
With Dunn, Encarnacion, Griffey and Phillips, this team will score it's fair share of runs. Maybe not as much as years past, but they'll score some runs.

TOBTTReds
04-05-2007, 03:11 PM
It's 40 degrees. Not many games are going to be 10-9 in that weather.

boognish
04-05-2007, 07:04 PM
I'm still worried about the offense, but I think a bench player with some pop from the right side would work wonders. I was pretty embarrassed when Ross was batting last night and Moeller was taking swings in the on deck circle to PH as our only RH option off the bench (not counting Castro). Replace Moeller with some "free talent" with a good platoon split against LHP and I would feel a lot better.

That said, the starting pitching has the potential to no longer be the run-letting sieve it has been throughout most of my adult life. I don't really feel comfortable with Lohse/Belisle, but I like the upside much more than Haynes, Moehler, Estes, Ortiz, and the like.

WMR
04-05-2007, 07:07 PM
Wow boog you were snake bit last season.

boognish
04-05-2007, 07:17 PM
Wow boog you were snake bit last season.

I went to a lot of Claussen starts, but still. The one win was in extras when the Reds ran wild against the Nats with LeCroy behind the plate.

One poster here "DFA'd" me when I announced the Reds' record when I was there :laugh:

UK Reds Fan
04-05-2007, 07:55 PM
This team is really easy to get out in spots 7-8-9..which is true for alot of teams but especially this one combine that with the #3 hole where I just think Phillips is far weaker than any other team's #3 spot, we have some offensive issues. Against lefties it looks downright horid.

We need a RH bat in the outfield in the worst way to make the offense look respectable.

fisch11
04-05-2007, 08:58 PM
The Reds finished 1st and 2nd the last two years in team HR's in the NL. I don't see how this lineup can't break the top 5. This lineup has thump if guys like Brandon Phillips, EE, and Ross contribute their fair share.

top6
04-05-2007, 09:38 PM
I think this team will have to worry a lot more about losing games 9-3, 8-2 than it will about losing games 9-7, 8-6.

I just don't think this lineup is very good, and for the most part is too old to have much hope that it will get better. Still, they are 2-1, so I will enjoy it for now.

HumnHilghtFreel
04-05-2007, 09:44 PM
As long as THIS Reds team keeps winning series, I'll like them just fine, no matter what the scores are.

Sean_CaseyRules
04-05-2007, 09:55 PM
The last couple of years we could actually be down 6-1 and not be worried, knowing there would be a chance for us to win the game 8-7.


Or on some miracle nights, 7-0!

TeamBoone
04-05-2007, 10:03 PM
This team is really easy to get out in spots 7-8-9..which is true for alot of teams but especially this one combine that with the #3 hole where I just think Phillips is far weaker than any other team's #3 spot, we have some offensive issues. Against lefties it looks downright horid.

We need a RH bat in the outfield in the worst way to make the offense look respectable.

Freel is RH. But obviously that's not what you mean... I don't understand you comment.

And why is a RH bat important in the outfield anyway? You think they should bench Freel and replace him?

6-4-3
04-05-2007, 10:16 PM
I feel this team will have more low run games than last year, attributed mainly to lack of production I see from the current lineup. Problems that jump out at me due to a lack of versatility / depth.

1) No true leadoff hitter. Freel IMO is not a very good leadoff hitter at this point in his career. He fails to work the count far to often, and is a free swinger. However, he is the only viable option to leadoff due to speed and lack of depth, perhaps Phillips will hit #1 when Freel doesn't start. (Phillips has many of the same problems as Freel)

2) Brandon Phillips at this point in his career is not a big league #3 hitter. He has tremendous talent but doesn't have professional AB's the majority of the time, i'd love to see him be able to fine tune his approach at the plate deep in the order ideally #7 spot. Brandon had success last year deep in the order, and some in the 2 hole. The way hitters are pitched in the #3 spot to the #7 spot are vastly different. This is why it's key for Phillips to work into a hitters count and attack fastballs, because he won't be seeing as many in the #3 hole.

3) Griffey Production. I would consider a solid season from Jr. to result in 25 homeruns and 80 rbi's. From wathcing film his bat speed through the contact zone has appeared to reduce substantially. He can not be counted upon for the 30 hr 100 rbi season this team needs, leaving the over bearing burden of the majority of run production and power numbers to Dunn and EE. One of which is currently hitting #2. By Dunn being realied on for the majority of run production hitting #2 throws the lineup balance off. I'm not against Dunn hitting #2, but perhaps the Reds current needs dictate Dunn bats elsewhere.

4) David Ross returning to career norms. In 2 games (and everyone is entilted to 2 poor games) Ross has looked clueless at the dish. Having a down year would further hurt the hole in the lineup that is the 6,7,8 slots in the order. Hatteberg and Conine will be solid but not spectatcular, A. Gonz will be below average at the dish, so this leaves the power in the hands of Ross to swing this portion of the lineup by his #'s. With good Ross production the 6,7,8 can contribute, with poor Ross production the 6,7,8 can really hurt this lineup.

Bottom Line: I do believe we'll see our share of 8-7 games (we always do) but this club is certainly more geared towards the 3-2 end of things. The vision to flip this clubs mindset is starting to be seen, however the Reds aren't yet a prototypical "small ball" lineup.

jamess697
04-06-2007, 01:10 AM
Some of you guys kill me! Let me ask you this, how many playoff apperances did the Reds make finishing 1 or 2 in home runs? I am excited about our new approach to winning and believe that our new team is much better than any of the last 7-8 years teams. Also our minor leagues are coming along, with a number of players to get excited about. We are just in the 1st series of the year, so come on!

Cedric
04-06-2007, 01:24 AM
The Reds/Rangers/Blue Jays style of baseball just won't cut it. You can't get over the hump with that style of team.

But that style of team is easier to debate about on paper with win shares and RC stats. Teams that lean towards defense/pitching get short changed in debates because there is plenty of grey area that can't be objectively debated. The straight line thinkers hate it.

AtomicDumpling
04-06-2007, 01:36 AM
I also believe this team will struggle to score runs. Dunn is the only above average run producer on the team. Encarnacion has the potential to become an above average hitter.

Phillips in the #3 slot is a huge mistake. I know the Reds don't have many options but I have to believe Phillips is the worst #3 hitter in the major leagues. #3 hitters are usually stars -- the teams best hitter. The Reds just don't have a high batting average hitter with some pop. Phillips would be an excellent #7 or #8 hitter or a decent #6.

Freel doesn't take pitches and makes way too many mistakes on the basepaths. Dunn's power is somewhat wasted in the #2 slot, as we saw on opening day. You want him to bat with men on base so he can drive them in with a homer or double. Griffey is a bit old to be the #3 hitter as in years past. I think he fits at the #5 spot. Encarnacion would be good in the #2, #5 or #6 spot.

I don't envy Narron having to make out a lineup card with the poor hitters on the Reds this year.

M2
04-06-2007, 02:13 AM
The Reds/Rangers/Blue Jays style of baseball just won't cut it. You can't get over the hump with that style of team.

But that style of team is easier to debate about on paper with win shares and RC stats. Teams that lean towards defense/pitching get short changed in debates because there is plenty of grey area that can't be objectively debated. The straight line thinkers hate it.

I like teams that score a lot, play defense, run and pitch. Maybe there's some "grey area" in your mind about pitching and defense, but the funny thing is most of the people you're trying (poorly) to take a shot at were pointing out the Reds' lack of pitching and defense for years while you, at times, acted like a few easy fixes had been applied to those areas when they weren't.

The problem with these Reds is they profile as not particularly good at anything over the long haul. They aren't going to score a lot. They also aren't going to be all that good a pitching/defense team (middle of the pack in runs allowed is probably the ceiling for this club). You don't automatically become a pitching and defense team by not scoring. The "grey area" in this case rests between the claim that the Reds have achieved something notable in pitching and defense and the stark reality that they probably haven't. What the Reds are is an extremely thin team that's stuck in the middle.

Since 1995, the first year with four teams from each league making the playoffs, the only NL team that got into the playoffs without being in the top 6 in either runs scored or runs allowed was the 2005 San Diego Padres which finished 82-80. The Reds finished 10th in runs allowed last year and, while I hope the stars align for the club to take a significant step forward on that front, this still looks like a team that's going to surrender 775-800 runs to me.

Jpup
04-06-2007, 06:14 AM
The Reds finished 1st and 2nd the last two years in team HR's in the NL. I don't see how this lineup can't break the top 5. This lineup has thump if guys like Brandon Phillips, EE, and Ross contribute their fair share.

Phillips needs to be moved way down in the lineup. He swings at too many first pitches and doesn't have enough pop to bat 3rd.

bucksfan2
04-06-2007, 09:25 AM
This year this team is going to struggle to score runs. Contrary to most people I like Phillips in either the 2 or 3 hole. He is a little of a free swinger and last year was his first full year in the bigs. However most of last year he hit lower in the lineup and got his protection from the likes of LaRue, Castro, and Ross. Give him protection from Dunn, EE, or Jr and I think you will see his production increase. As for pop in his bat I think Phillips has plenty of pop in his bat.

I think a lot of this season's offensive success lays with both Freel and Phillips. They need to get on base and Freel NEEDS to become a better base runner. Both are stolen base threats and the hitters behind them will see better pitches because they want to keep the runners honest. The problem with Freel is that he is a time bomb on base and has very little dicipline. But you can see in the first inning of opening day how he effected Zambrano and Dunn got a pitch that he sent into the stands.

REDREAD
04-06-2007, 10:53 AM
IMO, we've seen the offense erode more than pitching/defense has improved.

Adding Arroyo was great. Harang improved last year as well. The other starting pitching was still a crapshoot or horrid (as historically it has been).

The bullpen is still a huge question mark. Santos looks good early. Hopefully, he can continue to be solid. Sarloos may be a solid middle reliever. I'm not jazzed about Stanton. Hopefully Weathers will repeat last year, but I think we need to expect at least a slight decline. So, while there's hope that the bullpen has improved, I still don't see it as above average yet. But at least we are moving in the right direction.

As far as Gonzo goes, I still think it's a bad signing, despite improving the defense. The Reds offense just can not absorb a career 292 OBP guy with all the other question marks we have. I will say that Gonzo's D will sometimes help Harang and Arroyo win, but his poor bat will cause the other starters to lose more. Our 3-5 starters seem to give up a lot of hard hit balls and flyballs. Gonzo isn't going to help them that much.

Eric_Davis
04-12-2007, 01:26 AM
Again, this is the New REDS.

I like it.

Eric_Davis
04-12-2007, 01:36 AM
The vision to flip this clubs mindset is starting to be seen, however the Reds aren't yet a prototypical "small ball" lineup.

Definitely, the flip has been made, and there's more to do.

I'm looking forward to the next move or two by Krivsky.

Eric_Davis
04-12-2007, 01:38 AM
Some of you guys kill me! Let me ask you this, how many playoff apperances did the Reds make finishing 1 or 2 in home runs? I am excited about our new approach to winning and believe that our new team is much better than any of the last 7-8 years teams. Also our minor leagues are coming along, with a number of players to get excited about. We are just in the 1st series of the year, so come on!

If the Atlanta Braves of the 1980's didn't prove that homeruns are worthless, then it can never be proven.

The fact is, hitting homeruns doesn't win games.

Yachtzee
04-12-2007, 02:03 AM
Hitting HRs wins lots of games because it scores runs. To say home runs are overrated and don't win games is utterly ridiculous. The Reds' problem was that they weren't able to prevent runs. I don't see why improving pitching and defense means the Reds have to play small ball. Playing small ball and trying to scratch out runs are desparation plays. Your goal should be to score as many runs as you can on offense and allow as few as you can on defense. There's no rule that says that if you improve your pitching and defense, you have to start making your cleanup hitter drop bunts to move guys over.

TeamBoone
04-12-2007, 02:07 AM
Right on the money, Yachtzee! Great post.

tripleaaaron
04-12-2007, 02:36 AM
Hitting HRs wins lots of games because it scores runs. To say home runs are overrated and don't win games is utterly ridiculous. The Reds' problem was that they weren't able to prevent runs. I don't see why improving pitching and defense means the Reds have to play small ball. Playing small ball and trying to scratch out runs are desparation plays. Your goal should be to score as many runs as you can on offense and allow as few as you can on defense. There's no rule that says that if you improve your pitching and defense, you have to start making your cleanup hitter drop bunts to move guys over.

As I dont believe Home Runs are necessarily overrated, I also don't believe that it is the only method to winning games, I would take a lineup full of ichiros and Reyes' all day long. The only problem is, is that we dont have all the pieces yet. We can easily win more games and hit less homeruns. maybe not this season, we dont quite have all the pieces. I agree that your goal should be to try to score as many runs as possible, and I do not agree in your cleanup hitter dropping a bunt, but I do believe that Homeruns shouldn't be considered as important as they are. What is important is the bottom line, Wins.