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View Full Version : Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton



TC81190
04-07-2007, 01:54 PM
I hope to god it isn't Santos, or that Burton gets sent back. In all likelyhood it will be Coutlangus who hasn't made an appearance yet, or Cormier gets cut.

Marc D
04-07-2007, 02:41 PM
I hope to god it isn't Santos, or that Burton gets sent back. In all likelyhood it will be Coutlangus who hasn't made an appearance yet, or Cormier gets cut.


I'd rather have any one of those names over Milton. Its a sunk cost, no need to take the on field damage to go with the financial, DFA him.

CTA513
04-07-2007, 02:46 PM
Does Coutlangus have options? if so my guess is it will be him.

Redsland
04-07-2007, 02:56 PM
Does Coutlangus have options?
Yes.

TC81190
04-07-2007, 03:08 PM
Santos has to be waived though right?

Redsland
04-07-2007, 03:22 PM
Yes.

Falls City Beer
04-07-2007, 04:25 PM
It'll be Cout or Burton.

George Foster
04-07-2007, 04:30 PM
Santos is "untouchable" after todays preformance:thumbup:

Razor Shines
04-07-2007, 04:33 PM
Santos is "untouchable" after todays preformance:thumbup:

I'm confused.

Falls City Beer
04-07-2007, 04:44 PM
I'm confused.

Probably confused with the Saarlaac Pit.

membengal
04-07-2007, 06:28 PM
It's gonna blow if its Cout.

Course, with Bray and Maj back at some point in the next four weeks or so, the Reds all of a sudden have a ton of decent relievers and no room. Gotta be a deal made at some point to bring in another bench bat and loosen the jam in the bullpen...

redsmetz
04-07-2007, 06:29 PM
It's gonna blow if its Cout.

Course, with Bray and Maj back at some point in the next four weeks or so, the Reds all of a sudden have a ton of decent relievers and no room. Gotta be a deal made at some point to bring in another bench bat and loosen the jam in the bullpen...

In many ways, it's an enviable position to be in. And some of it's going to be a juggling act of who's got options and who doesn't. I assume that Wayne is burning up the phone lines too.

George Foster
04-07-2007, 08:59 PM
I'm confused. I meant to say Saarloos is pitching so good right now, there is no way he is going to be sent down. Santos....Saarloos.....I read the post to fast:) :) Sorry...

reds44
04-07-2007, 09:08 PM
It's gonna blow if its Cout.

Course, with Bray and Maj back at some point in the next four weeks or so, the Reds all of a sudden have a ton of decent relievers and no room. Gotta be a deal made at some point to bring in another bench bat and loosen the jam in the bullpen...
Majewski's not hurt. He has to prove himself in AAA before he comes up.

Bray is a different story.

dougdirt
04-07-2007, 09:14 PM
Majewski's not hurt. He has to prove himself in AAA before he comes up.

Bray is a different story.

I bet Majewski is hurt some still. He is just rehabbing without the official rehab tag.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2007, 09:26 PM
Coutlangus looked great in the spring and today against the Pirates. It better not be him they send down. Cormier needs to be traded.

Burton should also stay. Kid has great stuff - I don't want to lose him. If he proves he isn't ready then work out a trade with the A's that would allow him to be sent to Louisville, but at least give him a couple more chances to prove something.

edabbs44
04-07-2007, 09:27 PM
Coutlangus looked great in the spring and today against the Pirates. It better not be him they send down. Cormier needs to be traded.

Burton should also stay. Kid has great stuff - I don't want to lose him. If he proves he isn't ready then work out a trade with the A's that would allow him to be sent to Louisville, but at least give him a couple more chances to prove something.

Cormier brings nothing back.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2007, 09:35 PM
Cormier brings nothing back.

I don't care. I just want him gone as opposed to Coutlangus or Burton.

captainmorgan07
04-07-2007, 09:54 PM
coutlangus looked good today and i kno burton is a favorite around here but this a very tough choice for wayne k somebodys not gonan be happy either way

Razor Shines
04-07-2007, 09:59 PM
I think it's gonna be Burton or Coutlangus. I don't want to see either of them go, but it comes down to when to you want to be better: Now or in the future? Coutlangus helps us this season, but we lose Burton for the future if we send him out. And I think there's a chance that both Burton and Coutlangus can help us as soon as next season. So if I absolutely have to pick one of them I'd say send Coutlangus down and keep Burton. It's not fair, but hey no body said it was.

JaxRed
04-07-2007, 10:35 PM
It will be Coutlangus.

TC81190
04-07-2007, 11:55 PM
I just don't understand what's so hard to understand about Milton for this team's management. 9 mil is a hard pill to swallow, but the team has been blazing since the opener. I know I feel very good about them. It's clear every starter in the rotation has been an improvement over Eric Milton. In the end, the team's goal should be to win. They should look at it this way: they paid Milton 9 mil. because they thought he would help them win. Now that it's abundantly clear that everytime he pitches, the game could as well be over before it starts, they should see it that they're paying him 9 mil to leave, which would help them win.

TC81190
04-08-2007, 12:14 AM
I also want to add that if we lose Burton because of Milton I will be nothing short of livid.

penantboundreds
04-08-2007, 12:28 AM
I dislike Eric Milton, but wonder why no-one likes Cormier? He is a good relief pitcher.

Patrick Bateman
04-08-2007, 01:43 AM
I dislike Eric Milton, but wonder why no-one likes Cormier? He is a good relief pitcher.

He's below average. He would be more useful if he were a splits guy where he is more effective against lefties. At least then we could spot him. Instead he's more of a 4.50ish ERA guy that can't really be used in any situation where he can be expected to be above average.

RedLegSuperStar
04-08-2007, 02:06 AM
I just don't understand what's so hard to understand about Milton for this team's management. 9 mil is a hard pill to swallow, but the team has been blazing since the opener. I know I feel very good about them. It's clear every starter in the rotation has been an improvement over Eric Milton. In the end, the team's goal should be to win. They should look at it this way: they paid Milton 9 mil. because they thought he would help them win. Now that it's abundantly clear that everytime he pitches, the game could as well be over before it starts, they should see it that they're paying him 9 mil to leave, which would help them win.

This post stands out to me. Are we debating on releasing Eric Milton? That makes me scratch my head. He is owed 9 mil this season. If we release him and no one claims him and Milton becomes a free agent then a team gets to sign him at the minimum and we are on the hook for 9 mil. The team that signs him will likly be one who plays in a pitchers park or lack any starting pitching what so ever. Washington and Yankees (for now) come to mind. With that said.. allow the guy to build somewhat of some value and deal him at the deadline.. because on this club now we don't have a 5th starter.. I think Livingston would be the next in line to take over that role. I know for 2 years that Milton has been here that he has been awful and never met our standards.. but 9 million is a lot to swallow where as half will be paid at the deadline and maybe Eric will be more appealing to a suitor.

As to stay on topic I would like to see a Cormier deal, but I think Coutlangus would get the trip to Louisville.

Patrick Bateman
04-08-2007, 02:17 AM
This post stands out to me. Are we debating on releasing Eric Milton? That makes me scratch my head. He is owed 9 mil this season. If we release him and no one claims him and Milton becomes a free agent then a team gets to sign him at the minimum and we are on the hook for 9 mil. The team that signs him will likly be one who plays in a pitchers park or lack any starting pitching what so ever. Washington and Yankees (for now) come to mind. With that said.. allow the guy to build somewhat of some value and deal him at the deadline.. because on this club now we don't have a 5th starter.. I think Livingston would be the next in line to take over that role. I know for 2 years that Milton has been here that he has been awful and never met our standards.. but 9 million is a lot to swallow where as half will be paid at the deadline and maybe Eric will be more appealing to a suitor.



The 9 Million is a sunk cost. He's clearly not worth 9M, so his current salary really should not be in the debate for what we do with him. As of right now Milton is not one of the team's best 12 pitchers, so IMO, it makes no sense to continue trotting him out there to gain potential value. The Reds need to cut bait and make sure they don't suffer any further pains of seeing Milton on the mound. The 9 Million will be wasted whether he continues pitching for the Reds or if he is released. Sure there is some chance he gets lucky for a month and the Reds can get a team to take a couple million off our hands, but at this point, there is a better chance he does his usual crap and creates losses. Being in the playoff chase makes it really hard to continue wasting time on a lost cause.

Ltlabner
04-08-2007, 06:55 AM
Being in the playoff chase makes it really hard to continue wasting time on a lost cause.

Fantastic point!

Getting off to a hot start, and more importantly, playing so many games in the division right out of the gate, means we are smack dab in the middle of a playoff chase. Until eliminated you are always in a playoff chase, but winning these early games are just as important as winning the last few to clinch the title.

Why not win as many as possible now so when we get to the strech, players are banged up and getting tired, etc we have some lead to work with?

No sense frittering away wins now.

Reds1
04-08-2007, 07:58 AM
He's below average. He would be more useful if he were a splits guy where he is more effective against lefties. At least then we could spot him. Instead he's more of a 4.50ish ERA guy that can't really be used in any situation where he can be expected to be above average.

I believe he had the best ERA in the NL when we picked him up last year. I agree he does get a bad wrap on this board. I thought he looked good yesterday. Reds gave him a couple million to keep him so they must see something there. If he is comfortable in his role I see a good year for him if he stays healthy.

Kc61
04-08-2007, 09:41 AM
Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed -- which is not every five days because of off-days and ability to skip fifth starter some times. Nobody else has really been groomed to start right now -- Saarloos and Santos have pitched short stints only; Livingston was sent down for seasoning.

I'm sure Krivsky has considered eating the Milton fixed cost and has decided to give him one more shot in this fifth starter role. Meanwhile, Bailey, Livingston and even Dumatrait could emerge at AAA. By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.

After Milton's last two season, I will be joining the groans if he gets lit up today or in his first few outings. Still, if he is healthy and has worked with the new pitching coach (they keep saying he is mixing in more changeups) maybe he will contribute.

As for the cut, the best thing would be if the Reds could work a deal to keep Burton and send him down. Coutlangus seems more ready and, when Bray and ultimately Majewski are ready Burton's presence will create a log jam. Still, the Reds can't just lose Burton at this point so probably Cout goes to AAA. Santos, I think, needs to stay since he can throw two or possibly three innings.

redsmetz
04-08-2007, 10:11 AM
Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed -- which is not every five days because of off-days and ability to skip fifth starter some times. Nobody else has really been groomed to start right now -- Saarloos and Santos have pitched short stints only; Livingston was sent down for seasoning.

I'm sure Krivsky has considered eating the Milton fixed cost and has decided to give him one more shot in this fifth starter role. Meanwhile, Bailey, Livingston and even Dumatrait could emerge at AAA. By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.

After Milton's last two season, I will be joining the groans if he gets lit up today or in his first few outings. Still, if he is healthy and has worked with the new pitching coach (they keep saying he is mixing in more changeups) maybe he will contribute.

As for the cut, the best thing would be if the Reds could work a deal to keep Burton and send him down. Coutlangus seems more ready and, when Bray and ultimately Majewski are ready Burton's presence will create a log jam. Still, the Reds can't just lose Burton at this point so probably Cout goes to AAA. Santos, I think, needs to stay since he can throw two or possibly three innings.

I've suspected since the season started that Milton's DL stint was a bit of twofold ploy. First, it helped with the roster squeeze, temporarily allowing the Reds to either work a trade, making additional room plus keeping Santos. But it also allowed the Reds to sidestep a demotion of Milton, thereby allowing a move of him into the fifth spot. IMO, that's a classy thing to do for a veteran guy who's not run away from his problems. I think it's good to treat people that way. It bodes well for the future of letting players know this is a class organization that's not going to run you down, even when you're failing.

Now, of course, Milton must perform. At least for now, he'll only be running out there on occasions when the fifth slot is needed. He might even have a stint where a long guy is needed between starts, but I doubt that.

The roster glut frankly is a good place to be. For the first time in a long time, we're squeezed to find spots for good pitchers (overall) and we've got a glut of good replacements down in Louisville (which has mostly, in recent years, been stocked with a many pretenders, if you will, guys who could be successful at AAA, but who have struggled at the ML level).

coachw513
04-08-2007, 10:13 AM
Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed -- which is not every five days because of off-days and ability to skip fifth starter some times. Nobody else has really been groomed to start right now -- Saarloos and Santos have pitched short stints only; Livingston was sent down for seasoning.

I'm sure Krivsky has considered eating the Milton fixed cost and has decided to give him one more shot in this fifth starter role. Meanwhile, Bailey, Livingston and even Dumatrait could emerge at AAA. By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.

After Milton's last two season, I will be joining the groans if he gets lit up today or in his first few outings. Still, if he is healthy and has worked with the new pitching coach (they keep saying he is mixing in more changeups) maybe he will contribute.

As for the cut, the best thing would be if the Reds could work a deal to keep Burton and send him down. Coutlangus seems more ready and, when Bray and ultimately Majewski are ready Burton's presence will create a log jam.

I agree totally...I wouldn't be surprised with WK trying to negotiate with the A's on the whole PTBNL thing making some type of deal to keep Burton and then send him down...he obviously needs some AAA grooming...

Some real interesting decisions coming down in the pen in the coming weeks with Bray and Majewski coming back...

Good golly, bullpen depth as a potential trade commodity...wow :thumbup:

Marc D
04-08-2007, 10:22 AM
By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.



So we take the damage on the field to go with the salary that was due to be paid no matter what. I just can't understand the logic in this.

He's not one of our 12 best pitchers. His money has to be paid no matter what. You don't get any of the money "back" by running a player out there every 5th day when better options are availible in house. All you get from that are losses and I for one have had my fill of that the past few years.

As for the fear that he can be had cheap if we release him, what do we care if some team desperate enough to pick up Milton gets him cheap? They could have signed Paul Wilson and Dustin Hermanson cheap as well, do we lose sleep over that possibility?

Kc61
04-08-2007, 11:12 AM
So we take the damage on the field to go with the salary that was due to be paid no matter what. I just can't understand the logic in this.


As for the fear that he can be had cheap if we release him, what do we care if some team desperate enough to pick up Milton gets him cheap? They could have signed Paul Wilson and Dustin Hermanson cheap as well, do we lose sleep over that possibility?

I don't disagree. I was simply saying with the Reds are obviously thinking.

However, keep in mind that the Reds this offseason operated as if Milton was a starter. They did not go out and get starting pitching. Saarloos, I thought, was one but then they put him in the pen. Right now they really only have three proven starters (if you count Lohse), although perhaps Belisle will pan out in this role.

This is why I hoped the Reds would add a mid-rotation type starter this off-season. Now, if it's not Milton, I don't see a natural replacement. Again, there are three starters at AAA -- Bailey, Dumatrait, Livingston -- who could fill that role depending on how they do this year.

paintmered
04-08-2007, 11:42 AM
I'm not buying their story, but I like it.

Nobody ever said that honesty wins pennants.

westofyou
04-08-2007, 11:45 AM
Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed

Eric will be given a chance, just like Frankie Pentangeli was given a chance.

Chip R
04-08-2007, 11:49 AM
I think if Milton is his usual self today, he's gone.

Marc D
04-08-2007, 11:58 AM
Milton hasn't been good in 3-4 years and its due to well documented medical issues that aren't ever going to heal. I have an issue with giving him a chance to see if he can do better because I feel they are using "lets see how he does" to buy time instead of making a tough decision now. You see it all the time in everyones place of business.

The only strategic reason I can see for running him out there is that they feel none of the possible in house replacements can give equal or greater production than Milton. Does anyone here believe that to be the case? I didn't get to see HB, Livingston et al in spring training.

RFS62
04-08-2007, 12:02 PM
Eric will be given a chance, just like Frankie Pentangeli was given a chance.


So, they're bringing in Milton's brother to sit in the dugout?

KronoRed
04-08-2007, 12:04 PM
I think if Milton is his usual self today, he's gone.

I think it'll take 3-5 awful starts for the Reds to dump him, if he's "good" meaning an era near but not over 6 then I see the Reds just sucking it up for 30 starts of it and not eating 9 million.

westofyou
04-08-2007, 12:09 PM
So, they're bringing in Milton's brother to sit in the dugout?

Yes.

I saw him at the bus stop awhile ago.

http://www.catalyzerjournal.com/news/images/milton.jpg

Patrick Bateman
04-08-2007, 12:20 PM
I believe he had the best ERA in the NL when we picked him up last year. I agree he does get a bad wrap on this board. I thought he looked good yesterday. Reds gave him a couple million to keep him so they must see something there. If he is comfortable in his role I see a good year for him if he stays healthy.

There's a lot more to it than ERA. That can be very misleading.

with the Phillies, Cormier had extremely fortunate luck. This was shown with his .232 BAPIP (something beyond his control). With normal luck, that number should really be in the .290 range, meaning Cormier deserved to give up a lot more hits.

Overall last season he had a peripheral based ERA of 5.01 which is a much better indication of how good a pitcher he is. In '05 this number was 5.38 and in '04 it was 4.34.

Basically, Cormier has been a well below average relief pitcher over the last 3 seasons, but has benefited from a lot of good luck. That's not something that the Reds should be banking on to continue. Things could get very ugly for Cormier.

When you factor in that he's not very durable, and that he isn't any better against lefties than righties, and you have a pitcher with very little value. The Reds have better options (or at least younger options that have a decent shot at outproducing Cormier), so the Reds are better off with him gone.

You might be able to find some sucker to take his salary in a trade. I would bet many GMs would look at his ERA last season and think he's a top set-up man. In this pitching starved market you see teams take chances on Cormier all the time (even at salaries above 2M).

Cooper
04-08-2007, 12:20 PM
1. Wayne K. is learning you can build a bullpen through looking at starters and converting them to relief pitchers, using the rule 5, and looking at AAA players. You don't have to trade everyday players for relief pitchers. It's good lesson to learn. Bowden was great at building a bullpen every year through this method. There were some years where he had to bring in 3 or 4 new bullpen arms and he did it. Rarely did the team not have good BP's when he was the GM and rarely did they pay an arm and a leg. I'm hoping Wayne K. has learned the lesson.

2. I know Eric Milton is not a good pitcher, but he did go a couple of times last year when he shouldn't have and in a sense he took one for the team. He'll always take the ball- he'll never claim he's tired. Narron and the pitching coach have to watch him like a hawk to know when to pull him or skip him. He (milton) does himself know favors by ALWAYS taking the ball. Monitor him very closely and cut your losses before things go way south. Makes me wonder if he's really ready (for today's start) or if he's taking his turn because he "has to". Also, Narron referred to Milton not being the kind of pitcher you could use the in the bullpen. Wondering if that isn't about Milton's ability to get ready OR if it's more about Milton's lack of ability to tell the truth about his stuff and where he's at. A pitcher in the BP has to be (for lack of better word) truthful about where his body and arm are at. If he has a problem telling the coaches where he's at--there may be a trust factor there that makes it impossible to use him in the BP.

3. Wondering how he compares to other 5th starters in the NL. I'm guessing he's right in the middle of the pack performance wise. If you monitor him really closely--maybe you could get a 4.80-5.00 ERA out of him --my guess is, that's really good for a 5th starter. 9 million for a 5th starter seems harsh- i agree with all the other folks who have mentioned sunk costs.

4. Any of the stat guys know if Dick Pole has been able to build good bullpens etc..has his record showed an improvement in overall team ERA teh first year he's been there as a pitching coach?

westofyou
04-08-2007, 12:30 PM
Any of the stat guys know if Dick Pole has been able to build good bullpens etc..has his record showed an improvement in overall team ERA teh first year he's been there as a pitching coach?

Pole was the Giants coach 93-97, he had some studs, Mike Jackson, Rod Beck, Burba and Brantley. He also had to take the ball away from Dave Righetti. More important about that year was the Giants were a two horse staff (Burkett and Swift) no other starter had over 20 starts and they only had 4 complete games that year (Maddux had 8 himself).

So the man has some experienced shuffling the bottom of the deck.

TC81190
04-08-2007, 01:10 PM
There's a lot more to it than ERA. That can be very misleading.

with the Phillies, Cormier had extremely fortunate luck. This was shown with his .232 BAPIP (something beyond his control). With normal luck, that number should really be in the .290 range, meaning Cormier deserved to give up a lot more hits.

Overall last season he had a peripheral based ERA of 5.01 which is a much better indication of how good a pitcher he is. In '05 this number was 5.38 and in '04 it was 4.34.

Basically, Cormier has been a well below average relief pitcher over the last 3 seasons, but has benefited from a lot of good luck. That's not something that the Reds should be banking on to continue. Things could get very ugly for Cormier.

When you factor in that he's not very durable, and that he isn't any better against lefties than righties, and you have a pitcher with very little value. The Reds have better options (or at least younger options that have a decent shot at outproducing Cormier), so the Reds are better off with him gone.

You might be able to find some sucker to take his salary in a trade. I would bet many GMs would look at his ERA last season and think he's a top set-up man. In this pitching starved market you see teams take chances on Cormier all the time (even at salaries above 2M).

Peripheral ERA sounds sweet. Is that tracked everywhere?

Patrick Bateman
04-08-2007, 01:49 PM
Peripheral ERA sounds sweet. Is that tracked everywhere?


Check out this site:

http://www.fangraphs.com/

In the past peripheral ERA (or better known as FIP or DIPS= Pitcher's ERA independent of the defense) has been proven to be a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA.

So it's based on peripherals (BB, K, and HR mainly) and assumes every pitcher will have the same BAPIP (no pitcher has really shown otherwise).

Fangraphs is really good for this purpose. It will give you FIP's and BAPIP's for any player for every season.

RedsManRick
04-08-2007, 02:13 PM
I know people find it hard to believe, but if Eric Milton gave us 30 starts as the "#5 starter", he'd be one of the best #5 starters in baseball. As you consider the effect of injuries, callups, etc. the average #5 starter is abysmal. Redleg Nation did a study in 2005 which showed the average #5 starter had an ERA over 7.00. Of course, this usually isn't in the form of a single pitcher. Rather it's the compilation of bad starts by a lot of guys. The point is, if you can 30 starts of a 5.50 ERA from your 5th spot, it's not something to write home about, but it's a leg up on most of the competition.

Falls City Beer
04-08-2007, 07:13 PM
I know people find it hard to believe, but if Eric Milton gave us 30 starts as the "#5 starter", he'd be one of the best #5 starters in baseball. As you consider the effect of injuries, callups, etc. the average #5 starter is abysmal. Redleg Nation did a study in 2005 which showed the average #5 starter had an ERA over 7.00. Of course, this usually isn't in the form of a single pitcher. Rather it's the compilation of bad starts by a lot of guys. The point is, if you can 30 starts of a 5.50 ERA from your 5th spot, it's not something to write home about, but it's a leg up on most of the competition.

You seem to be using a 5.50 ERA as some kind of measuring stick for success; but the argument that's most compelling to me is that ERA is a poor measuring stick for pitching. Looking at Milton's ERA of 5.50 might lead you to say that he did okay for a fifth starter, but what if that ERA masks the fact that he surrenders 42 homers and has an OPSA over .850.

Honestly, I'd rather take the rotating door approach that you mention for the fifth spot; that way, you might string together a couple of hot streaks out of the fifth spot instead of serving up the guaranteed crap in Milton. As you point out, it's more instructive to look at winning games than saying, "well, I can live with a 5.50 ERA" if that's what he gives us on average. That seems like a recipe for stagnation.

RedsManRick
04-08-2007, 08:30 PM
You seem to be using a 5.50 ERA as some kind of measuring stick for success; but the argument that's most compelling to me is that ERA is a poor measuring stick for pitching. Looking at Milton's ERA of 5.50 might lead you to say that he did okay for a fifth starter, but what if that ERA masks the fact that he surrenders 42 homers and has an OPSA over .850.

Honestly, I'd rather take the rotating door approach that you mention for the fifth spot; that way, you might string together a couple of hot streaks out of the fifth spot instead of serving up the guaranteed crap in Milton. As you point out, it's more instructive to look at winning games than saying, "well, I can live with a 5.50 ERA" if that's what he gives us on average. That seems like a recipe for stagnation.

Sorry FCB, I guess I forgot that the team who allows the fewest HR and lowest OPSA wins.

Falls City Beer
04-08-2007, 08:42 PM
Sorry FCB, I guess I forgot that the team who allows the fewest HR and lowest OPSA wins.

That's not my point, of course. All I'm saying is that you seem to suggest one thing and then retract your first argument. Yes, you could stick with Milton, but why not try something different? I don't disagree by the way that the #5 five starter in baseball is more phantom than reality, and an ugly phantom at that.

I think there are ways around leaving the Miltons and Marquises out on the mound to get pummeled. I'm all for having a tandem five-starter, if the plan is to carry 12 pitchers on the roster.

But I have little doubt that Santos could give you what Milton gives you, if not more, all by himself.

RedsManRick
04-08-2007, 08:50 PM
That's not my point, of course. All I'm saying is that you seem to suggest one thing and then retract your first argument. Yes, you could stick with Milton, but why not try something different? I don't disagree by the way that the #5 five starter in baseball is more phantom than reality, and an ugly phantom at that.

I think there are ways around leaving the Miltons and Marquises out on the mound to get pummeled. I'm all for having a tandem five-starter, if the plan is to carry 12 pitchers on the roster.

But I have little doubt that Santos could give you what Milton gives you, if not more, all by himself.

My point is directly counter to yours. While it's an attractive thought to think that we can run out the "hot hand" instead of Milton and be better off, history shows that the guys who end up taking those starts do NOT fair well at all. Yes, Milton, Marquis, at not ideal options at all. However, they're better than giving starts to guys like Joe Mays and Chris Michalak. Forgive me if I don't think that Victor Santos and Bobby Livingston represent much better options.

Most of the time, the grass simply isn't greener. Now, we both know that over the course of the next few months, those guys will likely get a shot due to injuries or the ineffectiveness of Belisle, Lohse, or even Milton. However, throwing out a 5.50 for an outside shot at something marginally better isn't a good bet in my book. It'd be one thing to make room for Homer Bailey. But I'll take my 5.50 ERA from Milton and go home happy with a 5 IP, 3 ER performance (that 4th run goes to Narron's ERA)...

If after a half dozen starts, we've got a starter over 6.00 ERA and somebody in AAA throwing lights out, I'm all for the change. But a pre-emptive strike because home runs are embarrasing isn't my strategy.

Falls City Beer
04-08-2007, 09:06 PM
My point is directly counter to yours. While it's an attractive thought to think that we can run out the "hot hand" instead of Milton and be better off, history shows that the guys who end up taking those starts do NOT fair well at all. Yes, Milton, Marquis, at not ideal options at all. However, they're better than giving starts to guys like Joe Mays and Chris Michalak. Forgive me if I don't think that Victor Santos and Bobby Livingston represent much better options.

Most of the time, the grass simply isn't greener. Now, we both know that over the course of the next few months, those guys will likely get a shot due to injuries or the ineffectiveness of Belisle, Lohse, or even Milton. However, throwing out a 5.50 for an outside shot at something marginally better isn't a good bet in my book. It'd be one thing to make room for Homer Bailey. But I'll take my 5.50 ERA from Milton and go home happy with a 5 IP, 3 ER performance (that 4th run goes to Narron's ERA)...

If after a half dozen starts, we've got a starter over 6.00 ERA and somebody in AAA throwing lights out, I'm all for the change. But a pre-emptive strike because home runs are embarrasing isn't my strategy.

By almost any sane measurement, Victor Santos has been a much better pitcher over the last three seasons than Milton.

Now, that's not saying much, but it's irrefutable all the same.

RedsManRick
04-08-2007, 09:44 PM
By almost any sane measurement, Victor Santos has been a much better pitcher over the last three seasons than Milton.

Now, that's not saying much, but it's irrefutable all the same.

Victor Santos: 2004-2006
IP: 410.3
Record: 20-34
ERA: 5.04 (Park Adjusted: 5.00)
WHIP: 1.53
K9: 6.24
BB9: 3.48
H9: 10.34
HR9: 1.18 (Park Adjusted: 1.20)

Eric Milton: 2004-2006
IP: 539.3
Record: 30-29
ERA: 5.47 (Park Adjusted: 5.20)
WHIP: 1.42
K9: 6.24
BB9: 2.82
H9: 9.9
HR9: 1.87 (Park Adjusted: 1.68)

So, basically I see Milton with a slightly worse adjusted ERA, due ENTIRELY to his HR rate -- given that his other peripherals are either the same or better. We could talk about defenses and I'd go out on a limb and say Santos probably was at an advantage there.

Now, clearly I'm not claiming Milton is a great starter. However, those are the 3 worst years of Milton's career and the 3 best (of 4) for Santos. At the end of the day, we're looking at a virtual wash here. And there is my point. Milton is paid. The salary isn't the issue. The other options aren't any better. Unless you want to try and convince me that Santos is ready to make a marked leap in performance. Yet, people want hang Milton publicly and claim Santos, or whomever else, as this vastly superior option.

Certainly they can't be as bad as Milton, right? Ah... but they can. At least we know Milton is capable of better. The same can't be said about Santos, et. al.

Again, don't get me wrong. If Milton sucks it up worse than the numbers above, or one of the other options does something to really indicate he's likely to be a better option, I'm all for it. I'm just not going to advocate change for the sake of it.

Cooper
04-08-2007, 11:20 PM
Good posts RMR. You make a good case for getting production out of Milton at the 5 spot.

remdog
04-08-2007, 11:35 PM
By almost any sane measurement, Victor Santos has been a much better pitcher over the last three seasons than Milton.

Now, that's not saying much, but it's irrefutable all the same.

By RedsManRick:
"Victor Santos: 2004-2006
IP: 410.3
Record: 20-34
ERA: 5.04 (Park Adjusted: 5.00)
WHIP: 1.53
K9: 6.24
BB9: 3.48
H9: 10.34
HR9: 1.18 (Park Adjusted: 1.20)

Eric Milton: 2004-2006
IP: 539.3
Record: 30-29
ERA: 5.47 (Park Adjusted: 5.20)
WHIP: 1.42
K9: 6.24
BB9: 2.82
H9: 9.9
HR9: 1.87 (Park Adjusted: 1.68)

So, basically I see Milton with a slightly worse adjusted ERA, due ENTIRELY to his HR rate -- given that his other peripherals are either the same or better. We could talk about defenses and I'd go out on a limb and say Santos probably was at an advantage there.

Now, clearly I'm not claiming Milton is a great starter. However, those are the 3 worst years of Milton's career and the 3 best (of 4) for Santos. At the end of the day, we're looking at a virtual wash here. And there is my point. Milton is paid. The salary isn't the issue. The other options aren't any better. Unless you want to try and convince me that Santos is ready to make a marked leap in performance. Yet, people want hang Milton publicly and claim Santos, or whomever else, as this vastly superior option.

Certainly they can't be as bad as Milton, right? Ah... but they can. At least we know Milton is capable of better. The same can't be said about Santos, et. al.

Again, don't get me wrong. If Milton sucks it up worse than the numbers above, or one of the other options does something to really indicate he's likely to be a better option, I'm all for it. I'm just not going to advocate change for the sake of it."


Well, now it's 'refutable'. :evil:

Rem

Patrick Bateman
04-08-2007, 11:42 PM
Rick, you make good points, and that is probably as good an argument as there is for Milton. Even if you don't accept Santos as a noticeable upgrade over Milton you got to think that it shouldnt be hard to find some better alternative. Hes been a 5.30+ ERA calibre pitcher since he has come back from injury. In no sense can that be considered a good thing. For a team serious about contending, they cannot afford to keep sending Milton out there. There is not room enough for error.

Fine you dont like Santos. But if you cannot find a pitcher that can be had for a cheap price that isnt worth the spot over Milton, then quite frankly, you arent looking hard enough.

5.30 ERA guys are not difficult to come by, and generally teams lacking a top offense cant afford to have the likes of Milton populating the rotation if they expect to contend. Surely the Reds can at least find a young project that that can post a mid 5s ERA that can at least learn on the job (Livingston maybe). At least that may accomplish something in the future without hindering the current team. Giving Milton the ball every 5th day should be the last line of defense. There is no good reason to do. Even you admit that Santos is slightly better. It may not seem like much, but Santos marginal skill differential is probably worth a win or two this season and the Reds cant afford to throw away any more wins.

mth123
04-09-2007, 07:03 AM
I'm for finding a better alternative (for both Milton and Lohse actually), but I don't see any (insert rant about the offseason here).

Santos is more of the same as a starter and seems to be doing very well in the pen. Why screw that up? Same goes for Saarloos (who IMO has potential to be way worse than Milton with just as many HR allowed with more walks and fewer Ks). Why mess up a couple of pleasant surprises in the pen for no better than a wash in the number 5 spot?

Livingston got hit hard in his 1st AAA start and Bailey isn't ready yet. There are no better options at this point and the only reason to make a change would be if some portion of the contract can be moved to save some money. The Reds should be trying hard to move Milton for any $ relief and if successful, Santos and Saarloos should still not be options at this point. Whoever is pitching the best at AAA should probably get the call when the time comes. There will be a time to DFA Milton if his contract can't be moved. That time will be when some one in AAA gets on a roll for a while. Its unfortunate but that isn't happening now.

It sounds funny, but this team has so many needs that I wouldn't mess with the roles of guys doing well right now. Santos would need to pitch worse to get a rotation shot now IMO. If he is pitching well in the pen, he should stay in the pen. He's proven that he isn't a good starter over the last several seasons. Maybe cutting down his repertoire to his best pitches and going all out for an inning or two will lead to him producing drastically better results in that role. It wouldn't be the first time that a failed starter became a good reliever. If that doesn't work out, then go ahead and throw him out there as part of the sacraficial fodder to run through the 5 spot in hopes that some one will hit a good stretch and be better than Milton.

I'd also want to see these guys when weather isn't such a factor before deciding much based on the first week (that includes that guys at AAA and AA).

Falls City Beer
04-09-2007, 07:41 AM
I'm for finding a better alternative (for both Milton and Lohse actually), but I don't see any (insert rant about the offseason here).

Santos is more of the same as a starter and seems to be doing very well in the pen. Why screw that up? Same goes for Saarloos (who IMO has potential to be way worse than Milton with just as many HR allowed with more walks and fewer Ks). Why mess up a couple of pleasant surprises in the pen for no better than a wash in the number 5 spot?

Livingston got hit hard in his 1st AAA start and Bailey isn't ready yet. There are no better options at this point and the only reason to make a change would be if some portion of the contract can be moved to save some money. The Reds should be trying hard to move Milton for any $ relief and if successful, Santos and Saarloos should still not be options at this point. Whoever is pitching the best at AAA should probably get the call when the time comes. There will be a time to DFA Milton if his contract can't be moved. That time will be when some one in AAA gets on a roll for a while. Its unfortunate but that isn't happening now.

It sounds funny, but this team has so many needs that I wouldn't mess with the roles of guys doing well right now. Santos would need to pitch worse to get a rotation shot now IMO. If he is pitching well in the pen, he should stay in the pen. He's proven that he isn't a good starter over the last several seasons. Maybe cutting down his repertoire to his best pitches and going all out for an inning or two will lead to him producing drastically better results in that role. It wouldn't be the first time that a failed starter became a good reliever. If that doesn't work out, then go ahead and throw him out there as part of the sacraficial fodder to run through the 5 spot in hopes that some one will hit a good stretch and be better than Milton.

I'd also want to see these guys when weather isn't such a factor before deciding much based on the first week (that includes that guys at AAA and AA).

I agree with the point that it's probably best to leave guys in spots where they're succeeding. That's the best argument I've heard so far.

But I think it's instructive to think that a guy (Santos) was plucked off the scrap heap who is better than Milton.

That thought should stick like a burr in Wayne's mind as he roots through options to replace Milton.

RedsManRick
04-09-2007, 09:04 AM
Ah, but there's the rub. If it were really easy to find 5 guys with ERA's under 5.00 in the rotation, then more teams would have that. The fact of the matter is it's NOT easy to find those guys. They just aren't out there for the taking. There's this misconception that Milton is replacement level. He's not. Again, I'm not saying he's good, because he clearly isn't. But there is worse out there. We should know. We've gave some of those guys starts last season.

If you think those guys are so common, start rattling off the names of guys and how we should acquire them.

REDREAD
04-09-2007, 09:54 AM
I bet Majewski is hurt some still. He is just rehabbing without the official rehab tag.


He's just pitching in AAA until he makes the injury bad enough for Doc Hollywood to cut him open.

REDREAD
04-09-2007, 09:58 AM
This post stands out to me. Are we debating on releasing Eric Milton? .... With that said.. allow the guy to build somewhat of some value and deal him at the deadline.. .

The problem is I don't think Milton is ever going to build value. Last year, before I found out about all the assorted injuries Milton has (bad back in spring training, chronic knee problems), I thought maybe Milton would be tradable this June.

I just don't see it happening now. Milton is that bad. Even though yesterdays start was "ok for Milton", since it wasn't a complete disaster :laugh: , the bottom line is that he's almost a guaranteed loss.

I'd rather release him or move him to the pen. Put Sarloos in the rotation and move on.

REDREAD
04-09-2007, 10:05 AM
I know people find it hard to believe, but if Eric Milton gave us 30 starts as the "#5 starter", he'd be one of the best #5 starters in baseball. As you consider the effect of injuries, callups, etc. the average #5 starter is abysmal. Redleg Nation did a study in 2005 which showed the average #5 starter had an ERA over 7.00. Of course, this usually isn't in the form of a single pitcher. Rather it's the compilation of bad starts by a lot of guys. The point is, if you can 30 starts of a 5.50 ERA from your 5th spot, it's not something to write home about, but it's a leg up on most of the competition.

I see your point.

However, this year the Reds have the option of using Sarloos as the 5th starter, and possible Bailey later in the season.

Last year, the Reds really didn't have another body to replace Milton with, so it actually made sense not to release him until they increased their pitching depth in the organization.

This year, we've at least got some pitching depth. Some of it is unknown in quality, but at least we have options, and that is something Wayne deserves credit for, even though I'm not his biggest fan.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2007, 02:18 PM
Ah, but there's the rub. If it were really easy to find 5 guys with ERA's under 5.00 in the rotation, then more teams would have that. The fact of the matter is it's NOT easy to find those guys. They just aren't out there for the taking. There's this misconception that Milton is replacement level. He's not. Again, I'm not saying he's good, because he clearly isn't. But there is worse out there. We should know. We've gave some of those guys starts last season.

If you think those guys are so common, start rattling off the names of guys and how we should acquire them.

As I said, there IS a man (Santos) currently on the 25 man roster who is a better starter than Milton (and almost certainly will be going forward because it appears that Milton has now added frequent DL trips to his illustrious resume). Milton of 2005 was replacemnt level (maybe slightly below). The only reason he racked up all those bad stats was because of his price tag. Anyone else would have been sold down the river long before 30+ starts had been accrued with a .900+ OPSA.

I'm just not sure why people think that that +900 OPSA is gone and in the past when by all accounts he's been posting those numbers so far this season and is showing no signs of reversing course.

Will M
04-09-2007, 03:34 PM
I'm for finding a better alternative (for both Milton and Lohse actually), but I don't see any (insert rant about the offseason here).

Santos is more of the same as a starter and seems to be doing very well in the pen. Why screw that up? Same goes for Saarloos (who IMO has potential to be way worse than Milton with just as many HR allowed with more walks and fewer Ks). Why mess up a couple of pleasant surprises in the pen for no better than a wash in the number 5 spot?

Livingston got hit hard in his 1st AAA start and Bailey isn't ready yet. There are no better options at this point and the only reason to make a change would be if some portion of the contract can be moved to save some money. The Reds should be trying hard to move Milton for any $ relief and if successful, Santos and Saarloos should still not be options at this point. Whoever is pitching the best at AAA should probably get the call when the time comes. There will be a time to DFA Milton if his contract can't be moved. That time will be when some one in AAA gets on a roll for a while. Its unfortunate but that isn't happening now.

It sounds funny, but this team has so many needs that I wouldn't mess with the roles of guys doing well right now. Santos would need to pitch worse to get a rotation shot now IMO. If he is pitching well in the pen, he should stay in the pen. He's proven that he isn't a good starter over the last several seasons. Maybe cutting down his repertoire to his best pitches and going all out for an inning or two will lead to him producing drastically better results in that role. It wouldn't be the first time that a failed starter became a good reliever. If that doesn't work out, then go ahead and throw him out there as part of the sacraficial fodder to run through the 5 spot in hopes that some one will hit a good stretch and be better than Milton.

I'd also want to see these guys when weather isn't such a factor before deciding much based on the first week (that includes that guys at AAA and AA).

I agree with leaving Santos and Saarloos in the pen. These are guys who are not stud prospects ( ala Bailey ) who have had mixed/poor results in the big leagues in the past. If they are doing well in relief then leave them be.

Narron mentioned that for now Weathers is his 9th inning man and Saarloos is his 8th inning man. As long as they keep getting the job done leave them be.

Tell the AAA starters ' if Milton keeps pitching badly then whichever of you is pitching the best in a few weeks gets the call to the bigs'.