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Will M
04-11-2007, 04:02 PM
So far:

The pitching outside of Milton has been excellent.

Defense is overall improved. Still shaky in some areas but Gonzalez is way better than anyone we had at SS in 2006 and Freel/Hamilton do cover a lot more ground in CF than Jr.

As others have pointed out the offense has struggled. The catchers haven't hit. EE and Phillips haven't looked good so far. Carrying Gonzo's good glove/weak bat means we can't afford too many other 'weak sticks'.

Now the fix:

1. DFA Milton and bring up Homer Bailey. I have to think that he will put up respectable numbers as the #5 starter. Why wait for Homer to have 10 good starts at AAA and Milton to have 10 bad starts here? Do it now.

The Reds offense is weak enough that we won't win every time the #1-4 starters pitch well. We can't afford to lose nearly every game Milton starts.

2. Bring up Votto. Make Hat a pinch hitter. Play Conine occasionally at 1B or LF. Votto should have more power than Hat/Conine and the bench gets better. ( Moeller sent packing )

Redsland
04-11-2007, 04:13 PM
The pitching outside of Milton has been excellent.

1. DFA Milton and bring up Homer Bailey.

2. Bring up Votto. Make Hat a pinch hitter. Play Conine occasionally at 1B or LF.
I'm not sure I'd classify Lohse's starts as "excellent," but otherwise I'm pleased.

As for your other two comments, bringing up the kids is something you do to get ready for '08. Personally, I haven't thrown in the towel on '07.

Ditch Milton? Sure, but Ted Power says Homer isn't ready, and that jibes with what we've been hearing all along. So I say you stick Saarloos or Santos into the #5 slot and see what happens.

At 1B, Hatte/Conine aren't hurting us at the moment, IMHO, so there's no reason to rush Votto.

REDREAD
04-11-2007, 04:26 PM
I'd prefer to give Sarloos a shot in the rotation if Milton is given the boot.

No sense in rushing Homer. We want his rookie year to be very productive, as opposed to learning on the job.

fisch11
04-11-2007, 04:41 PM
Phllips and EE are simply going to have to step up as the big right handed bats in the lineup. Until then, we'll be all or nothing with the lefties. That's the easiest offensive solution.

I'll save Milton for another day...

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 04:52 PM
Count me underwhelmed with this team's pitching. When Santos is your bullpen ace, you're in huge trouble.

This FO will be scurrying around like roaches after the lights have been switched on after they start facing some real offenses. It's going to get ugly, insanely quickly.

Me? I'd drop Homer in the bullpen yesterday. This team needs some thunder; some thrill.

Matt700wlw
04-11-2007, 04:57 PM
1. DFA Milton and bring up Homer Bailey.


I'm fine with that. However, after Homer's first start, Ted Power asked Bailey how he would rate himself....Homer rated himself a B. Ted Power agreed. Too many walks, still to dependant on his fastball....but he's getting there.

He's not ready for the bigs yet....Ted Power knows it, and Homer, himself knows it.

He will be.....and I think it will be sooner than later.

TRF
04-11-2007, 05:01 PM
Livingston is a better option than Milton.

EZ will be a better option once he's built the strength back in his shoulder.

Saarloos would be a better option than Milton.

My cat is fat.

and is a better option than Milton.

Offensively, the rest of the sticks will likely heat up as the season progresses. EE and Phillips will hit. If Votto continues to tear up AAA pitching into June, I look for suitors for either Conine or Mr. Hatte.

Ross? ugh.

BRM
04-11-2007, 05:02 PM
Me? I'd drop Homer in the bullpen yesterday. This team needs some thunder; some thrill.

A strikeout pitcher in the bullpen? Does that type of "out of the box" thinking really work? ;)

TRF
04-11-2007, 05:09 PM
It ain't the worst idea in the world (Homer to the pen). Worked for some guy named Johan Santana. Now that is an extreme example, but the Twins suffered through his bumps because of the raw talent he possessed.

I'd dropkick Milton and Cormier, and promote Livingston and Bailey, with Bailey going to the pen.

Upgrades all around.

REDREAD
04-11-2007, 05:11 PM
Me? I'd drop Homer in the bullpen yesterday. This team needs some thunder; some thrill.


Yes, that would help this year. However, I think this team is far from being a contender this year. Why waste a year of service time with Homer when he's not really 100% ready?

It was more justifiable to bring him up last summer when we were close and desparately needed bullpen help.

I just don't see this club (as constructed) being close in July, even with Homer.

I agree with you that when a nonroster invitee like Santos is the bullpen ace, that doesn't bode well for the future. Even if Santos is for real, Narron is going to wear him out by the allstar break. That's what Narron always does.
When Bray first arrived, he was effective, until Narron pitched him for what seemed like 21 days in a row.

BRM
04-11-2007, 05:12 PM
I'd dropkick Milton and Cormier,

You had me right there. Instant improvement without even seeing the rest of the post.

Marc D
04-11-2007, 05:13 PM
-One positive I think I've seen so far is increased plate discipline from Phillips. He looks like he'll actually take a BB if its given.

-I fugured Phillips, Ross and Arroyo for big regression, so far it looks like I am a happy 1 for 3.

-Keep getting Hamilton AB's Jerry.

-Internal solutions? Fire Narron, DFA Milton. Your a better ballclub as soon as the ink dries on the pink slips. No need to rush the kids.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 05:14 PM
Yes, that would help this year. However, I think this team is far from being a contender this year. Why waste a year of service time with Homer when he's not really 100% ready?


Honestly, I couldn't possibly care less about wasting service years or how close we are to being a contender. All I want is for all the "good eggs" to be on the Reds' 25-man roster.

Just to see. Just once.

PuffyPig
04-11-2007, 05:14 PM
When Santos is your bullpen ace, you're in huge trouble.



Santos is not our bullpen ace. Why do you think he is?

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 05:15 PM
-

-Internal solutions? Fire Narron, DFA Milton. Your a better ballclub as soon as the ink dries on the pink slips. No need to rush the kids.

The difference would be neglible without an influx of real talent.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 05:16 PM
Santos is not our bullpen ace. Why do you think he is?

Santos/Coffey. While Coffey is likely better over the long haul, he's not a guy I want to lean on too heavily.

Will M
04-11-2007, 05:42 PM
I'd prefer to give Sarloos a shot in the rotation if Milton is given the boot.

No sense in rushing Homer. We want his rookie year to be very productive, as opposed to learning on the job.

why? if Homer is the best #5 starter we have then get him out there.
LOTS of great pitchers learned on the job - look at the first year stats of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine.

Will M
04-11-2007, 05:45 PM
I'm fine with that. However, after Homer's first start, Ted Power asked Bailey how he would rate himself....Homer rated himself a B. Ted Power agreed. Too many walks, still to dependant on his fastball....but he's getting there.

He's not ready for the bigs yet....Ted Power knows it, and Homer, himself knows it.

He will be.....and I think it will be sooner than later.

ok then give Livingston a shot. we have several guys in the organization likely to outpitch Milton.

Again - The Reds offense is weak enough that we won't win every time the #1-4 starters pitch well. We can't afford to lose nearly every game Milton starts.

M2
04-11-2007, 05:48 PM
I'd DFA Milton and leave Homer where he's at, no point in bringing up the kid to get his head kicked in.

Saarloos or Santos could step into the #5 slot.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 06:08 PM
I'd DFA Milton and leave Homer where he's at, no point in bringing up the kid to get his head kicked in.

Saarloos or Santos could step into the #5 slot.

That way, though, the rotation becomes only marginally better while the pen gets much worse.

M2
04-11-2007, 06:14 PM
That way, though, the rotation becomes only marginally better while the pen gets much worse.

I don't know. Does putting Saarloos in the rotation materially wound the pen?

I tend to think it doesn't. Majewski's pretty much the same blah pitcher as Saarloos. Call him up him up and you're net even in the pen.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 06:16 PM
I don't know. Does putting Saarloos in the rotation materially wound the pen?

I tend to think it doesn't. Majewski's pretty much the same blah pitcher as Saarloos. Call him up him up and you're net even in the pen.

Wow. I think Majewski's useless, and likely never to contribute to this ballclub (I'm no doctor, but that arm sounds shot). I think Saarloos can pitch a couple of innings out of the pen with some frequency.

Though in the end all this situation points up is the fact that this FO did nothing to address the pitching problems of this club in the offseason.

REDREAD
04-11-2007, 06:18 PM
Honestly, I couldn't possibly care less about wasting service years or how close we are to being a contender. All I want is for all the "good eggs" to be on the Reds' 25-man roster.

Just to see. Just once.

That's a good point as well, which is hard to argue. (Having the best 25 on the roster, regardless of whether they are 100% ready or not).

Dracodave
04-11-2007, 06:30 PM
Wow. I think Majewski's useless, and likely never to contribute to this ballclub (I'm no doctor, but that arm sounds shot). I think Saarloos can pitch a couple of innings out of the pen with some frequency.

Though in the end all this situation points up is the fact that this FO did nothing to address the pitching problems of this club in the offseason.

They didn't sign a big time number 3 pitcher, which was out there. That alone is not the sole reason this team has skids. The offensive is not the greatest but it's not horrible. I really do think even trading for Conine, you can make the pick of Wilson, instead of Stanton. That gives you Conines bat off the bench, Wilson on firstbase or rightfield for lefties. Thus improving your team in more ways than one.

Lets not forget that without a legit closer, everyone is pitching pretty much out of place. Santos and Saarloos are now set up men just to get to Weathers, who should be in mop up himself....the bullpen is just a mess. Ranking that is pretty much easy
1)Coffey
2)Saarloos
3)Santos
4)Weathers.
After Weathers everything is pretty much run'em out and see what they do.

Three pricey (but hey wasn't Stanton and Conine?) pick ups and this team would be winning one run games.

So my two reasons for the skid lately
-Lack of a bench, beside Hamilton..wait..who is on our bench?
-The lack of a decent pitcher brought in to replace Everyday Eddie, and a number 3/4 starter.

Will M
04-11-2007, 06:50 PM
They didn't sign a big time number 3 pitcher, which was out there. That alone is not the sole reason this team has skids. The offensive is not the greatest but it's not horrible. I really do think even trading for Conine, you can make the pick of Wilson, instead of Stanton. That gives you Conines bat off the bench, Wilson on firstbase or rightfield for lefties. Thus improving your team in more ways than one.

Lets not forget that without a legit closer, everyone is pitching pretty much out of place. Santos and Saarloos are now set up men just to get to Weathers, who should be in mop up himself....the bullpen is just a mess. Ranking that is pretty much easy
1)Coffey
2)Saarloos
3)Santos
4)Weathers.
After Weathers everything is pretty much run'em out and see what they do.

Three pricey (but hey wasn't Stanton and Conine?) pick ups and this team would be winning one run games.

So my two reasons for the skid lately
-Lack of a bench, beside Hamilton..wait..who is on our bench?
-The lack of a decent pitcher brought in to replace Everyday Eddie, and a number 3/4 starter.

Losing denorfia hurt the bench. i was expecting him to get a lot of playing time. remember Griffey and Freel are healthy now and our bench is weak.
just wait until griffey and Freel get the inevitable injury.

I would not be against trying to get a RH bat who can play some RF/CF and replace Moeller with this player.

M2
04-11-2007, 08:42 PM
Wow. I think Majewski's useless, and likely never to contribute to this ballclub (I'm no doctor, but that arm sounds shot). I think Saarloos can pitch a couple of innings out of the pen with some frequency.

Though in the end all this situation points up is the fact that this FO did nothing to address the pitching problems of this club in the offseason.

You're talking to the guy who invented the Anti-majewski bandwagon. I don't think he's any good (note the words "blah pitcher"), but Saarloos is pretty much the same animal - groundball pitcher who lacks a K pitch and attempts to keep the ball in the park.

Now, if Majewski's arm is indeed shot that changes things. I'd prefer a heat miser like Salmon anyway, but the point I'm trying to make is Majewski can approximate what you get from Saarloos in the pen if his arm stays attached.

And I totally agree Krivsky didn't accomplish any of the hard work this offseason in regards to improving the pitching. This club is pretty much depending on Matt Belisle being good and Kyle Lohse being at least average.

TC81190
04-11-2007, 08:45 PM
Wow. I think Majewski's useless, and likely never to contribute to this ballclub (I'm no doctor, but that arm sounds shot). I think Saarloos can pitch a couple of innings out of the pen with some frequency.

Though in the end all this situation points up is the fact that this FO did nothing to address the pitching problems of this club in the offseason.

I think the BP is awesome as it is. Bring up Livingston to take the role of a departed Eric Milton.

Highlifeman21
04-11-2007, 09:00 PM
Honestly, I couldn't possibly care less about wasting service years or how close we are to being a contender. All I want is for all the "good eggs" to be on the Reds' 25-man roster.

Just to see. Just once.

Loch Ness Monster

Bigfoot

Unicorns

The Reds having their best 25 players on the 25 man roster at the same time.

Notice a pattern?

Handofdeath
04-11-2007, 09:04 PM
You're talking to the guy who invented the Anti-majewski bandwagon. I don't think he's any good (note the words "blah pitcher"), but Saarloos is pretty much the same animal - groundball pitcher who lacks a K pitch and attempts to keep the ball in the park.

Now, if Majewski's arm is indeed shot that changes things. I'd prefer a heat miser like Salmon anyway, but the point I'm trying to make is Majewski can approximate what you get from Saarloos in the pen if his arm stays attached.

And I totally agree Krivsky didn't accomplish any of the hard work this offseason in regards to improving the pitching. This club is pretty much depending on Matt Belisle being good and Kyle Lohse being at least average.

I disagree. That "blah pitcher" when healthy in 2005 was 9th in the Majors in holds with 24. Also had a 2.93 ERA to go with that. Don't forget he was a rookie too. His arm may be shot but if it's not and he's healthy he's a young and very capable reliever. His only crime is not being Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez. Krivsky traded two undisciplined players for two young and capable(and assumedly healthy) relievers. The Reds were absolutely dying for relief help. Anyone who thinks that, when healthy, Bray and Majewski are not good relievers hasn't bothered doing their homework.

TC81190
04-11-2007, 09:06 PM
I disagree. That "blah pitcher" when healthy in 2005 was 9th in the Majors in holds with 24. Also had a 2.93 ERA to go with that. Don't forget he was a rookie too. His arm may be shot but if it's not and he's healthy he's a young and very capable reliever. His only crime is not being Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez. Krivsky traded two undisciplined players for two young and capable(and assumedly healthy) relievers. The Reds were absolutely dying for relief help. Anyone who thinks that, when healthy, Bray and Majewski are not good relievers hasn't bothered doing their homework.

Bray has done nothing in the majors and Majewski has had one year.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2007, 09:07 PM
You're talking to the guy who invented the Anti-majewski bandwagon. I don't think he's any good (note the words "blah pitcher"), but Saarloos is pretty much the same animal - groundball pitcher who lacks a K pitch and attempts to keep the ball in the park.

Now, if Majewski's arm is indeed shot that changes things. I'd prefer a heat miser like Salmon anyway, but the point I'm trying to make is Majewski can approximate what you get from Saarloos in the pen if his arm stays attached.

And I totally agree Krivsky didn't accomplish any of the hard work this offseason in regards to improving the pitching. This club is pretty much depending on Matt Belisle being good and Kyle Lohse being at least average.

Majewski's good for one inning basically, and can't be trusted to do anything if there are runners already on base. I think Saarloos offers considerably more than that. He can start in a pinch, go multiple innings, get a DP ball with men on. Majewski's got to start an inning to even salvage anything like effectiveness; he's just a hair above mop-up.

We just value Saarloos differently I guess.

Handofdeath
04-11-2007, 09:32 PM
Bray has done nothing in the majors and Majewski has had one year.

Bray was a 23 year old rookie last year. He had 50 IP and an ERA just barely over 4.00. Not to mention a couple of saves and holds. Majewski was pretty good with Washington last season until his arm finally gave out. 55 IP and an ERA of 3.58 with a sore arm. It's not his fault the Reds got him when his arm finally gave out. That's two seasons for Majewski and you can even count the 16 games and 21 IP for the Expos in 2004. 3.86 ERA that season as well.

KySteveH
04-12-2007, 09:25 AM
Now the fix:

1. DFA Milton and bring up Homer Bailey

I keep seeing this posted by people...What would you gain by designating Milton for assignment? What assignment would you propse? If you try send him to the minors, he can refuse, and even if he does go, you are still paying him $9M to take a spot away from an actual prospect.

If you are going to bite the $9M bullet anyway, why not just release him?

TRF
04-12-2007, 09:35 AM
I see Saarloos as Scott Sullivan lite. Can go multiple innings, induces a ton of groundballs. I'd keep him right where he is.

Majewski IMO doesn't wear Red until he shows he's healthy for two months at AAA. Oh, and he needs to outpitch Salmon at AAA too. if not, he stays there. Likewise Bray.

If Livingston has another good outing, there is your #5 starter. When EZ finally regains strength in his shoulder (for some reason, I am thinking of Denny Neagle right now) There is another candidate for the #5 spot. Dumatrait is pitching well. If he has his mechanics going ok, there is another candidate for the #5 spot.

There is nor reason, whatsoever, for Homer Bailey to start a single game in a Reds uniform this year. If you want him in the pen, to get him that big league experience, then that would be fine.

M2
04-12-2007, 10:00 AM
I disagree. That "blah pitcher" when healthy in 2005 was 9th in the Majors in holds with 24. Also had a 2.93 ERA to go with that. Don't forget he was a rookie too. His arm may be shot but if it's not and he's healthy he's a young and very capable reliever. His only crime is not being Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez. Krivsky traded two undisciplined players for two young and capable(and assumedly healthy) relievers. The Reds were absolutely dying for relief help. Anyone who thinks that, when healthy, Bray and Majewski are not good relievers hasn't bothered doing their homework.

Anybody who doesn't know that Majewski was riding a wave of good luck before he came to the Reds (both BABIP and runners stranded) or note that he lacks an out pitch hasn't bothered doing their homework.

The Reds traded for him in the hope that he'd stay lucky. Dumb idea. Majewski will spend his career polluting the basepaths. Relievers like him never succeed in the long term. Bray's the one who might actually good (though I sincerely doubt he'll ever be good enough to be a plus closer).

coachw513
04-12-2007, 10:19 AM
I like Votto as much as anyone, but what the heck is wrong with the job Hatte and "young bod" are doing???...they have been wonderful so far, Hatte's DP notwithstanding...:thumbup:

Santos may have found something as a reliever...come in, throw your stuff and get out...I don't want him being shuffled around..same with Saarloos...let's see if we struck gold with this...

Unless something happens in AAA to justify that Livingston and Ramirez are doing things that clearly are an upgrade over Milton (a typical 5th starter), I don't see it (and I'm not sold that Lizard or Livingston are necessarily above AAAA right now)...

Why the Lohse-loathing???...don't tell me about what he's done or what his projections are...he's done a very good job in 2 starts...judge him on performance not expectations or his past IMHO...

Bailey will be here, but I'm more than agreeable to allow a guy like Ted Power to make the assessment when he's ready...

And as for Narron...he ain't exactly managin' the '27 Yankees or the '75 Reds...I just don't get the venom over every decision that goes wrong when viewed in hindsight :rolleyes: as the local papers have clearly said:

He's moved Griffey, he's put Milton in the spot most appropriate, he's stayed with a consistent approach to his lineups, he's established (IMHO) the roles for the bullpen and bench, he's clearly coaching guys up (publicly chiding Lohse over the bad pitch choices, benching EE) but he cannot turn chopped steak into filet mignon...I'm not saying he's Casey Stengel (or name the manager of choice) but I just can't see how he's this bum that needs to be removed at all costs...

Maybe cause I coach do I find it humorous the way we 2nd guess everything on the board and almost always find a way to take it back to Narron...:confused:

coachw513
04-12-2007, 10:22 AM
I see Saarloos as Scott Sullivan lite. Can go multiple innings, induces a ton of groundballs. I'd keep him right where he is.

Great comparison :beerme:

IslandRed
04-12-2007, 11:00 AM
I keep seeing this posted by people...What would you gain by designating Milton for assignment? What assignment would you propse? If you try send him to the minors, he can refuse, and even if he does go, you are still paying him $9M to take a spot away from an actual prospect.

If you are going to bite the $9M bullet anyway, why not just release him?

"Designated for assignment" is how most players get released these days. It's a procedural thing. Sometimes the result of a DFA is the player goes to the minors, sometimes it's an outright release, but a DFA gets him off the roster while holding open a ten-day window for one last try at trading him. Or, if it's a veteran, hoping someone else puts in a waiver claim and takes the contract off your hands. Neither is likely in Milton's case but it doesn't hurt to try.

Kc61
04-12-2007, 11:01 AM
With a good draft this year, the Reds will be in pretty good shape.

Jay Bruce looks like a future mainstay in, probably, right field. I can see an outfield of Dunn (if re-signed), Hamilton and Bruce. All lefty but a lot of ability. I think you can project that outfield as an improvement over the current outfield.

I'm less sure that Votto will be a Red long-term. Reds need some right handed bats. I can see Votto and, perhaps, Freel being used as trade bait eventually to help bring a good righty hitting first baseman in. Still, if the Reds choose to go with Votto, he is a good almost ready prospect who should add power.

At AAA and on the DL there are a number of pitchers who are in the picture. Bray, Majewski, Bailey, Dumatrait, Livingston, Salmon -- from a depth point of view, a very good list.

Bellhorn, Hopper and Crosby are also good AAA depth guys. Wouldn't be surprised if one of them replaces a catcher soon with the Reds.

Reds minor league catching seems weak in that there is no clear future guy who can both hit and field. This is one area that needs to be addressed. I do think that, perhaps, a Tatum or possibly Perez can be Reds if their bats pick up.

Longer term, there are a lot of potential Reds in the lower minor leagues who look promising as well. With a good draft this year -- the Reds have a lot of picks -- they could be in excellent shape.

Things are looking up. Now let's just win a few games.

TRF
04-12-2007, 11:59 AM
Why the Lohse-loathing???...don't tell me about what he's done or what his projections are...he's done a very good job in 2 starts...judge him on performance not expectations or his past IMHO...

Because he's been around long enough to see a clear pattern. He doesn't know HOW to pitch. He can throw. He has as much talent in his arm as any #2 starter. But he doesn't know HOW to pitch. He seems to have no concept of how to approach individual players in the micro, or teams in the macro. He makes dumb decisions on the mound. He has not pitched better than the Reds #4 starter (Belisle). to date, three guys at AAA have pitched better. Livingston, Dumatrait and even Mike Gosling. Homer has been better, but needs the development time.

It's easy to bash bad pitchers.

coachw513
04-12-2007, 12:17 PM
Because he's been around long enough to see a clear pattern. He doesn't know HOW to pitch. He can throw. He has as much talent in his arm as any #2 starter. But he doesn't know HOW to pitch. He seems to have no concept of how to approach individual players in the micro, or teams in the macro. He makes dumb decisions on the mound. He has not pitched better than the Reds #4 starter (Belisle). to date, three guys at AAA have pitched better. Livingston, Dumatrait and even Mike Gosling. Homer has been better, but needs the development time.

It's easy to bash bad pitchers.

Well, I guess we'll debate "bad"...

And it's hard for me to agree with an assessment of AAA starts equating to major league starts when Lohse has had 2 solid starts...

I have no problem is you think Belisle is our #3...I think you lump in Belisle and Lohse together and there is the key to our season...if they are solid we contend, if not we count down the days to Homer for we have nothing else to root for...

Just differing thoughts I guess...

registerthis
04-12-2007, 12:26 PM
If you are going to bite the $9M bullet anyway, why not just release him?

That's pretty much what most of us are suggesting, and what islandRed's post expounded on.

registerthis
04-12-2007, 12:35 PM
Well, I guess we'll debate "bad"...

Kyle Lohse career stats:

4.85 ERA
1.44 WHIP
5.65 K/9
2.82 BB/9

He may not be the dictionary definition of "bad", but he's mind-numbingly pedestrian, and more likely than not to sport an above-average ERA, walk a goodly number of batters, and not strike many people out. Which may be fine for your #5 starter, but sounds the alarm if he is your #3.

TRF
04-12-2007, 02:55 PM
Kyle Lohse career stats:

4.85 ERA
1.44 WHIP
5.65 K/9
2.82 BB/9

He may not be the dictionary definition of "bad", but he's mind-numbingly pedestrian, and more likely than not to sport an above-average ERA, walk a goodly number of batters, and not strike many people out. Which may be fine for your #5 starter, but sounds the alarm if he is your #3.

Add to that he has a pretty good track record in which to forecast his future. And it ain't too good. He's on pace to give up a Miltonesque number of HR's this year. He leads the team in hits allowed, and he's tied for fourth in all of baseball. His only saving grace has been that he hasn't walked but one guy. Probably because everyone is smacking the crap out of everything he throws.

BRM
04-12-2007, 03:01 PM
His only saving grace has been that he hasn't walked but one guy. Probably because everyone is smacking the crap out of everything he throws.

His SLG against of .527 says you are probably right.

TRF
04-12-2007, 03:18 PM
The low BB totals are reall what is keeping him in the rotation. The thing is, guys aren't blooping hits. 7 extra base hits in two starts. 3 HR's, 4 doubles. LH batters hit for more power, the RH's have a better BA and OBP. both sides of the plate OPS higher than .819.

Yes, it's just two starts. But he got damned lucky against the Cubs, (10 Hits!) and AZ just crushed him.

His next start is Sunday in Chicago. I hope the wind is blowing in.

GoReds
04-12-2007, 03:25 PM
First thought was to move Saarloos to the rotation, but the fact is, that leaves the Reds with no lefty starter. Given that the delta between Livingston and Saarloos is probably not that great, I'd rather toss out a lefty every few days than go with an all-righty staff.

I was then toying with the idea of making Milton the mop-up guy, but that would then require sending someone else out and I just can't see Milton deserving a spot over anyone at this point.

With Bray and Majewski due back soon, I would hope that Krivsky is looking to make a deal somewhere to strengthen the bench. Sure would be nice to have been able to keep Cody Ross.

TRF
04-12-2007, 03:29 PM
I have no problem is you think Belisle is our #3...I think you lump in Belisle and Lohse together and there is the key to our season...if they are solid we contend, if not we count down the days to Homer for we have nothing else to root for...

Just differing thoughts I guess...

If this were the any of the last three years, I'd agree. But despite the fact that there has been 4 regimes (counting the interim GM's) in the past four years, some how the one thing all these GM's have managed to do is increase the overall level of talent in the minor league system. Krivsky has done a pretty good job with this, plucking Hamilton, Burton and Livingston. Two of these guys have already played at the Major League level for the Reds. Livingston could be next. Or it could be Dumatrait who is reportedly hitting 92-93 now.

There is also quite a bit of talent in the lower levels. There are teams (cough)Kansas City(cough) that would drool over some of the reds prospects. I'd trade Stubbs or Valaika or Cueto for Grienke tomorrow.

The future may not be blindingly bright, but it ain't the abyss either.

Will M
04-12-2007, 03:45 PM
The low BB totals are reall what is keeping him in the rotation. The thing is, guys aren't blooping hits. 7 extra base hits in two starts. 3 HR's, 4 doubles. LH batters hit for more power, the RH's have a better BA and OBP. both sides of the plate OPS higher than .819.

Yes, it's just two starts. But he got damned lucky against the Cubs, (10 Hits!) and AZ just crushed him.

His next start is Sunday in Chicago. I hope the wind is blowing in.

Lohse is quite servicable as a back of the rotation starter.
He is vastly better than Milton.

What we need is to find someone who can post a sub 5.00 ERA to take Milton's place in the rotation.

BRM
04-12-2007, 03:48 PM
Lohse is quite servicable as a back of the rotation starter.
He is vastly better than Milton.

What we need is to find someone who can post a sub 5.00 ERA to take Milton's place in the rotation.

Then the Reds should move him to the back of the rotation. Right now, he's the #3. I'd have no problem moving him to the 5 and dumping Milton.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-12-2007, 04:21 PM
Honestly, what's the difference between labeling them #3, #4, and #5, especially when you are talking about the Reds back of the rotation? In a perfect world, if they all stay healthy and not combust they are all going to get 33 or so starts anyway, right?

We all know it's Harang and Arroyo and everyone else. Why does it matter what label you give Belisle, Lohse, and Milton. If one is hot and the schedule gets kind of wacky, you go with your hottest guy with the most rest. If one is horrible, whether he's your #3 or #5, he gets moved to the BP, DFA'd or sent down. The pattern they start seems insignificant to me. What am I missing?

registerthis
04-12-2007, 04:40 PM
Honestly, what's the difference between labeling them #3, #4, and #5, especially when you are talking about the Reds back of the rotation? In a perfect world, if they all stay healthy and not combust they are all going to get 33 or so starts anyway, right?

The #5 guy typically will get 3-5 starts less per season than the top of the rotation guy. For #'s 1-4 it's not as big of a deal, but but for guys who are solidly ensconced at #5 it is.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-12-2007, 05:42 PM
Our two aces, Harang and Arroyo started 70 games (35 each) last year, which seems about right, considering neither was ever injured.

So, if all goes well with those two again, we can figure the bottom three in the rotation split up 92 starts between them. So, if they all stay healthy, each one would get 30 to 31 starts. I guess I don't understand the difference (again especially with the Reds bottom three) in worrying about the label (#3, 4, or 5). We already know the aces our going to get the majority of the starts and whomever is deemed the worst of those bottom three (at the time) will be the one that gets bumped when the schedule permits.

Right now, it's probably Milton. If he starts pitching good and Belisle or Lohse starts struggling, one of those two will probably get bumped the next time.

If they have to be labeled, I guess that's fine. It's just that it has to be recognized that's is a constantly changing label.

To me, once the season starts, it really doesn't matter. You play the hot hand.

jmac
04-12-2007, 08:27 PM
He's moved Griffey, he's put Milton in the spot most appropriate, he's stayed with a consistent approach to his lineups, he's established (IMHO) the roles for the bullpen and bench, he's clearly coaching guys up (publicly chiding Lohse over the bad pitch choices, benching EE) but he cannot turn chopped steak into filet mignon...I'm not saying he's Casey Stengel (or name the manager of choice) but I just can't see how he's this bum that needs to be removed at all costs...

Maybe cause I coach do I find it humorous the way we 2nd guess everything on the board and almost always find a way to take it back to Narron...:confused:

Very well said !

TRF
04-13-2007, 09:46 AM
I'm not putting anything about this rotation on Narron.

To me, the rotation's members was decided by Krivsky with input from Narron. But I have to believe that Narron at some point stated he preferred a better option than Milton, and that he'd prefer a better option than Lohse IF Lohse doesn't start using his head and grow as a pitcher. The talent is there. The IQ, not so much.

registerthis
04-13-2007, 09:56 AM
Right now, it's probably Milton. If he starts pitching good and Belisle or Lohse starts struggling, one of those two will probably get bumped the next time.

If they have to be labeled, I guess that's fine. It's just that it has to be recognized that's is a constantly changing label.

To me, once the season starts, it really doesn't matter. You play the hot hand.

True, and I mostly agree...but the point in mentioning that Lohse is the team's #3 starter isn't merely to label him, it's to present an indication of the faith the Reds' management has in his capabilities. On 80% of MLB teams, Lohse is a #5 starter--meaning the guy most likely to get skipped, or the guy walking the plank towards the dreaded "long relief" role. Not on the Reds, though. And if Lohse gets run out there for more than 30 starts--as a #3 starter is likely to do--that's very bad news for this team's fortunes. The fact that he is viewed as the team's third-best starting option is a scary thought.

Marc D
04-14-2007, 06:25 PM
And as for Narron...he ain't exactly managin' the '27 Yankees or the '75 Reds...I just don't get the venom over every decision that goes wrong when viewed in hindsight :rolleyes: as the local papers have clearly said:

He's moved Griffey, he's put Milton in the spot most appropriate, he's stayed with a consistent approach to his lineups, he's established (IMHO) the roles for the bullpen and bench, he's clearly coaching guys up (publicly chiding Lohse over the bad pitch choices, benching EE) but he cannot turn chopped steak into filet mignon...I'm not saying he's Casey Stengel (or name the manager of choice) but I just can't see how he's this bum that needs to be removed at all costs...

Maybe cause I coach do I find it humorous the way we 2nd guess everything on the board and almost always find a way to take it back to Narron...:confused:


Its not Narron's fault the pitchers are bad but its sure as heck his fault when he can't figure out when to pull them. Narrons a good clubhouse guy but a lousy tactician. Dumb lineups all based on the R/L/R/L principle, slow hook, bad decisions all over the place. 11 games into it and how many has he butchered already?

I do agree with you about not blaming Narron. I blame the guy who employs him.

doug flynn
04-15-2007, 04:24 AM
I'm not putting anything about this rotation on Narron.

To me, the rotation's members was decided by Krivsky with input from Narron. But I have to believe that Narron at some point stated he preferred a better option than Milton, and that he'd prefer a better option than Lohse IF Lohse doesn't start using his head and grow as a pitcher. The talent is there. The IQ, not so much.

Seems like a perfect scenario to call the pitches from the bench. It's not a groundbreaking concept. If Narron doesn't like his pitch selection, remove it from his control.

GAC
04-15-2007, 05:59 AM
Kyle Lohse career stats:

4.85 ERA
1.44 WHIP
5.65 K/9
2.82 BB/9

He may not be the dictionary definition of "bad", but he's mind-numbingly pedestrian, and more likely than not to sport an above-average ERA, walk a goodly number of batters, and not strike many people out. Which may be fine for your #5 starter, but sounds the alarm if he is your #3.

There were pitchers with numbers equal to those above, who just signed huge multi-year contracts - Lilly, Marquis, Suppan. And a few others could be noted. This is not a problem peculiar to the Reds; but a majority of teams are struggling to fill out their rotations with decent, let alone, quality arms.

Lohse was signed to a 1 yr deal wasn't he, for 4.2 Mil? At least they aren't making a huge commitment to him, which tells me this FO knows/understands Lohse more then some want to give them credit for. ;)

On a different note:

Homer Bailey is not ready, and I don't understand why some refuse to listen to that advice from the coaches who observe and work with him daily. We obviously know better?

Bailey's numbers this spring weren't too pretty. In three games, including one start, he was 0-1 with a 19.64 ERA (eight earned runs over 3 2/3 innings). He sometimes lacked command of his mid-to-high-90s fastball, and his walk rate is high.

And some suggest putting him in the bullpen? Please justify that other than "he'd probably do better then Maj, Bray, or Cormier".

Not from what I've seen.

WebScorpion
04-16-2007, 03:33 PM
I agree with GAC that Krivsky and Co. seem to know what they're doing with Lohse. I'm pretty happy with his performance and Belisle up to this point and I have faith that Harang and Arroyo will come around. The 5th starter isn't as pressing a concern, but with Milton, Dumatrait, Livingston, Saarloos, and eventually EZ to choose from, I think one will emerge.



Homer Bailey is not ready, and I don't understand why some refuse to listen to that advice from the coaches who observe and work with him daily. We obviously know better?

And some suggest putting him in the bullpen? Please justify that other than "he'd probably do better then Maj, Bray, or Cormier".

Not from what I've seen.

Again, I agree. Homer's development is served best by continuing to start every 5th day and learning to get AAA hitters out under the guidance of Powers and our Louisville staff. When those guys say he's ready is when he should be moved up and not before. :thumbup:

What we really need at this point is a few more right handed hitters and for EE to get hot.

registerthis
04-16-2007, 03:38 PM
There were pitchers with numbers equal to those above, who just signed huge multi-year contracts - Lilly, Marquis, Suppan. And a few others could be noted. This is not a problem peculiar to the Reds; but a majority of teams are struggling to fill out their rotations with decent, let alone, quality arms.

Yep, there are a lot of turds out there.

But the Reds lack the offense to succeed with too many turds in their rotation. And if Arroyo or Harang head south, God help them.