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flyer85
04-12-2007, 01:40 PM
The Giants are really going to live to regret this deal., if they don't already

from Stark's column

Granted, it's a little early to pronounce judgment on Barry Zito's mind-warping seven-year, $126 million jackpot. But in Zito's first start, he got just six swings and misses in 86 pitches. In his second start, it was only seven swings and misses in 100 pitches.

On the Giants

Problem No. 1: Age
By the end of this month, there won't be one every-day player in this lineup under 32, and their two best players (Barry Bonds and Omar Vizquel) will be in their 40s. "Just an aging, station-to-station ball club," said one scout.

Problem No. 2: Offense
Not once in the 50 seasons since the Giants moved to San Francisco have they scored fewer runs than the 20 they've managed in their first nine games. How about these numbers, through Wednesday: Team batting average .232. Team on-base percentage .289. Team slugging percentage .307. Versus left-handed pitchers: .130/.259/.174. Runners in scoring position: .214 average, with no extra-base hits. Late and close: .179 average, with one RBI.

Interesting to note the contrast of the Giants and the Snakes. The Snakes have went with almost all young guys and the start they are off to a flying start. The Reds missed what may be their two best young players in Quentin and Young.

RedsManRick
04-12-2007, 01:49 PM
A fastball that doesn't fool anybody and a great curve that he can't locate consistently. He fooled a lot of people the first few years in the league and can still be quite effective when he has his curve working. However, the Giants gave him ace money to be a decent #2/3 starter for the next 7 years.

Barry Zito is Ted Lilly with a better home ball park and easier division the last 3 years. Not a bad pitcher at all, but not the guy I'd build my staff around through 2015.

Caveat Emperor
04-12-2007, 01:51 PM
The Snakes have went with almost all young guys and the start they are off to a flying start. The Reds missed what may be their two best young players in Quentin and Young.

Owings is pretty damn good too -- was their top-rated pitching prospect last season, I believe. He can swing the bat a bit too; he'd be a better pinch-hitting option than both Moeller and Castro if he played for the Reds.

And, I'm not just saying this as a Tulane grad.

HotCorner
04-12-2007, 01:52 PM
No wonder Aurilla went back to SF. He wanted to be young again. ;)

membengal
04-13-2007, 10:42 AM
Gil Meche is missing a LOT more bats than Barry Zito. And at a lesser cost. Perhaps that contract will end up looking less silly for KC as the season and years unfold...

TC81190
04-13-2007, 10:59 AM
And he doesn't break 90 with his "heater."

DTCromer
04-13-2007, 11:28 AM
A fastball that doesn't fool anybody and a great curve that he can't locate consistently. He fooled a lot of people the first few years in the league and can still be quite effective when he has his curve working. However, the Giants gave him ace money to be a decent #2/3 starter for the next 7 years.

Barry Zito is Ted Lilly with a better home ball park and easier division the last 3 years. Not a bad pitcher at all, but not the guy I'd build my staff around through 2015.

Which is exactly why I have no problem with WK and the other owner in this town not overpaying for someone in FA. Everyone knows pitchers are expensive no matter how good or bad they are.


But in Zito's first start, he got just six swings and misses in 86 pitches. In his second start, it was only seven swings and misses in 100 pitches.

I don't see the relevance on this. . .I mean I do, but it's not that big of a deal. I'd like to see Greg Maddux's numbers. I'm sure they're better but the guy pitches to contact. Big deal if there were 6 swings and misses. Zito is good, but not 125 million bones good. But the swing and misses has absolutely no bearing on whether I think the guy is good or not.

membengal
04-13-2007, 11:46 AM
Greg Maddux in the day, in his prime, could get guys to swing and miss whenever he wanted to. Period. Missing bats is a VERY relevant part of the discussion about how good a pitcher someone is...

DTCromer
04-13-2007, 01:37 PM
Greg Maddux in the day, in his prime, could get guys to swing and miss whenever he wanted to. Period. Missing bats is a VERY relevant part of the discussion about how good a pitcher someone is...

Maddux has averaged .687 K's per inning for his career.
Zito has average .764 K's per inning in his career.

Maddux gave up an average of more hits/inning over his career than Zito, although Zito averages more HR's/game than Maddux over his career. . . . so you can look at the #'s any which way you want.

Although those numbers don't seem like a big difference, they really are.

Do I think Zito deserved his contract? Hell no, but he's still a damn good pitcher. He's struggled just about every April in his career and then went on to dominate the rest of the year. Someone even posted these numbers on here. I don't understand why so many people seem to dislike this guy on here.

jimbo
04-13-2007, 01:44 PM
Remembering back to the years I had Zito on my fantasy teams, I remember him always getting off to slow starts. I think that contract was pretty ridiculous and he is nowhere near worth that money, but I'd bet that Zito ends up having a decent year.

Please note I said "decent," not a season worthy of that crazy contract he got.

bucksfan2
04-13-2007, 02:10 PM
Take away Zito's 2002 year and hes nothing more than ordinary. I think he may be a left handed Arroyo. Puts up innings and will have a decent ERA and win anywhere from 12-18 games. It was crazy for anyone to sign him to that amount of money. Dont get me wrong I would love Zito on my team, but not for that insane amount of money.

jojo
04-13-2007, 02:20 PM
I'm on record (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1212718&postcount=16) as being on the side that wouldn't have signed Zito during the off-season (especially for what the Giants had to shell out).


However, here's (http://catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/575894.html) a counter argument by a very smart guy just to balance things out and because, well it's interesting and useful.

DTCromer
04-13-2007, 03:15 PM
I'd give you rep, but unfortunately I can't right now. :)

But that's a great find. I love articles like that.

jojo
04-13-2007, 03:27 PM
I'd give you rep, but unfortunately I can't right now. :)

But that's a great find. I love articles like that.

Apparently you're a Cubs or Cards fan.... :D

DTCromer
04-13-2007, 03:34 PM
Apparently you're a Cubs or Cards fan.... :D

Even worse: I'm a Reds fan. :beerme:

RadfordVA
04-14-2007, 12:09 AM
I for one would have to say zito is underpaid if anything. One of the crazier stats I have ever seen is zito's record with run production. Of course he didn't help things by going to the giants who have problems scoring. If anyone can look at these numbers and say he is overrated they are crazy. Think of the record he would have with decent run support. Here are some stats coming into this year. Taken from ny daily news.

Known as a pitcher who will give his team every chance to win each of his starts, he logged a 15-1 personal record in 23 starts with run support of two or more in 2006. In fact, Zito has fashioned a 29-3 ledger (.906) in 44 starts with support of two or more runs during the 2005-06 seasons. In 108 career starts with at least four runs of support, he has produced an 85-4 mark (.955).

Falls City Beer
04-14-2007, 12:11 AM
Zito will be a big part of the Giants taking the West. Mark it down.

jojo
04-14-2007, 09:19 AM
I for one would have to say zito is underpaid if anything. One of the crazier stats I have ever seen is zito's record with run production. Of course he didn't help things by going to the giants who have problems scoring. If anyone can look at these numbers and say he is overrated they are crazy. Think of the record he would have with decent run support.

I don't think it's really accurate to suggest Zito suffered from a lack of run support in 2005-2006.

Zito run support (ave per 27) 2005: 4.95; AL ave 2005: 4.76

Zito run support (ave per 27) 2006: 4.44; AL ave 2006: 4.97

This is especially true considering that he's pitched a majority of his starts in the AL west which is populated with pitcher's parks in Oakland, Anahiem and Seattle. Oakland is going to score fewer runs just because of the environments they play in. Even so, Zito's runs support is basically league average. I don't think he can complain.


Here are some stats coming into this year. Taken from ny daily news.

Known as a pitcher who will give his team every chance to win each of his starts, he logged a 15-1 personal record in 23 starts with run support of two or more in 2006. In fact, Zito has fashioned a 29-3 ledger (.906) in 44 starts with support of two or more runs during the 2005-06 seasons. In 108 career starts with at least four runs of support, he has produced an 85-4 mark (.955).

Clearly Zito used to be special. But also clearly, the Zito of '00-'03 is a different pitcher than the Zito of '04-'06. Thus, I'm not as interested in his career record as I am in what he's done the last few seasons (after all this thread is more about what he's likely to do in the future rather than what he's done already).

The Daily News splits struck me as being too blunt to be particularly useful. Here's his 2005-2006 seasons broken into a few more run classes (based upon the final scores of Zito's starts):

2005-2006 overall: 69 starts; W-L: 30-23;

'05-'06 w/ 0-1 runs: 17 starts; W-L: 1-16;

'05-'06 w/ 2-4 runs: 19 starts; W-L: 4-7;

'05-'06 w/ 5 or greater runs: 33 starts; W-L: 25-0;

Basically, when looking at his '05 and '06 record a little closer than NY Daily News did, the current version of Zito with his peripherals trending downward, looks more like an innings eater than the ace that the NY Daily News seems to be arguing he is. I just don't see a particularly striking ability to help his team win games other guys wouldn't. I think the Daily News splits were a bit misleading because in reality, Zito's won alot when the As have scored alot of runs. When the As scored under 5 runs, Zito was 5-23 over the last two seasons. When the As scored 5 or more runs, Zito was 25-0. There's really not alot that's special or unique about that....

Falls City Beer
04-21-2007, 07:26 PM
Zito will be a big part of the Giants taking the West. Mark it down.

Zito goes 7 1/3 surrendering 4 hits, no runs, and 5 Ks, for his second straight excellent outing, defeating the 2nd place D-Backs and drawing the Giants to .500 after a terrible start to the season.

The Reds couldn't do anything with production like that. That would mean fewer innings from their vaunted bullpen.