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fearofpopvol1
04-15-2007, 04:46 PM
8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 12 K's

I know he's caught quite a bit of heat from many here and no doubt he hasn't shown the consistency he should at times, but had anyone else actually ever watched him pitch? He has really good stuff and the fact that he was being aggressive not only with first pitch strikes, but going right after the top Cubs' hitters really showed me that he's got a lot of poise. He looked outstanding today.

thatcoolguy_22
04-15-2007, 04:49 PM
8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 12 K's

I know he's caught quite a bit of heat from many here and no doubt he hasn't shown the consistency he should at times, but had anyone else actually ever watched him pitch? He has really good stuff and the fact that he was being aggressive not only with first pitch strikes, but going right after the top Cubs' hitters really showed me that he's got a lot of poise. He looked outstanding today.

everyone knew about the quality of his stuff but he plays head games with himself leading to his inconsistency.Today he knuckled down and pitched one hell of a game. 4 hits and 3 of those were to ryan thierot. Its looking good to be a reds fan this year :beerme:

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 04:50 PM
Lohse vs Pitt on 9/8/06: 7 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 6 Ks.

The next 3 games: 11 1/3 innings total, 21 hits, 17 runs.

He's had success and looks excellent at times, but he's insanely inconsistent. That's his problem.

CRedsLarkin11
04-15-2007, 04:51 PM
I've always heard that he had the stuff to do good things he just hasn't really put it together. This is a guy who's won 14 games before and had an ERA in the low 4's. He can be solid, let's just hope it continues.

RedsManRick
04-15-2007, 04:51 PM
That 2-seamer he's got really runs well. It was working for him quite well as a backdoor pitch against righties.

Redlegs
04-15-2007, 05:03 PM
He did a good job of keeping the ball down today and throwing first pitch strikes. Those two accomplishments usually add up to good things. Great job today.

membengal
04-15-2007, 05:05 PM
You know what might help Lohse concentrate this year? The insane prices paid for free agent pitchers last off-season. If he can launch himself on the mother of all contract drives and actually sting together a 175+ K season and an ERA under 4.00, he stands to collect cash by armored car this upcoming off-season from someone. Reds might very well benefit in the short term this season because of that...

jfar23
04-15-2007, 05:07 PM
He had an 8 inning 4 hit shutout vs the Lastros last season too...it was a great outing today but his career stats still show him as a bad pitcher. Hopefully he gets it and can keep it up.

icehole3
04-15-2007, 05:09 PM
I think he's good as gone, he'll get 10 mil a year easy by the Yankees

membengal
04-15-2007, 05:10 PM
That's fine, I want him to come into his reward. If he puts together a monster year on a contract drive, good for him. And the Reds could benefit in the short term. I am NOT advocating locking him up, just hoping if he focuses and turns in a career year, that the Reds can take advantage of it in 2007...

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 05:13 PM
That's fine, I want him to come into his reward. If he puts together a monster year on a contract drive, good for him. And the Reds could benefit in the short term. I am NOT advocating locking him up, just hoping if he focuses and turns in a career year, that the Reds can take advantage of it in 2007...

Meaning dealing him in July?

membengal
04-15-2007, 05:17 PM
Either that, or, if the team is in it, letting the team ride him to the end and let him go in free agency. In that case, if he turns in a career year and they let him walk, they get a nice compensation pick in next year's draft, right? Either way, the team would benefit. So, on with a contract drive, Mr. Lohse. We are all pulling for you...

Dunner44
04-15-2007, 06:45 PM
He definitely benifitted from the big strike zone today, but you have to adapt in this game we call baseball, and Loshe did a good job adapting.

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 07:55 PM
You know what might help Lohse concentrate this year? The insane prices paid for free agent pitchers last off-season. If he can launch himself on the mother of all contract drives and actually sting together a 175+ K season and an ERA under 4.00, he stands to collect cash by armored car this upcoming off-season from someone. Reds might very well benefit in the short term this season because of that...

i doubt we will have loshe next year.

i could be wrong but next year i see our rotation as
1)Aaron Harang
2)Bronson Arroyo
3)Homer Bailey
4)Matt Belisle
5)Elizardo Ramírez

color me with rose glasses but i think this would be a very good 1-5

Homer will be cheap along with Elizardo Ramírez and Matt Belisle :beerme:

this will free up a new contract for adam dun i hope!

membengal
04-15-2007, 08:03 PM
Right. I agree. I am NOT saying the Reds will HAVE Lohse next year. I was musing that IF he is focusing like he never has before because he is in his free agent walk year that the Reds might benefit. That's all.

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 08:09 PM
i doubt we will have loshe next year.

i could be wrong but next year i see our rotation as
1)Aaron Harang
2)Bronson Arroyo
3)Homer Bailey
4)Matt Belisle
5)Elizardo Ramírez

color me with rose glasses but i think this would be a very good 1-5

Homer will be cheap along with Elizardo Ramírez and Matt Belisle :beerme:

this will free up a new contract for adam dun i hope!

That means the money being spent on Milton and Lohse goes where?

a) Bob's pocket
b) The lineup
c) Relief help

kbrake
04-15-2007, 08:14 PM
Not trying to take anything from Loshe but the ump had a huge strike zone today, for both sides. It was obvious he had something important to do tonight. As good as Loshe was he probably got quite a few calls today that he will not be able to count on all season.

Will M
04-15-2007, 08:19 PM
I stated all winter that I thought Lohse would have a good year.
He has the talent of course.
Why now? - if he can keep it together for 1 year he can get some team to pay him big bucks next winter when he is a free agent.

I'll stand by my previous prediction:
W-L 15-10, ERA 4.25 , innings 200+

MaineRed
04-15-2007, 08:19 PM
Not trying to take anything from Loshe but the ump had a huge strike zone today, for both sides. It was obvious he had something important to do tonight. As good as Loshe was he probably got quite a few calls today that he will not be able to count on all season.

I won't disagree but on the most controversial call of the day, the one that that drew the most heat from a Cub, the strike three call on Lee, it was clearly a strike, a good inche above the knee.

The ump was giving the low strike, big time. But I think more umps should be doing that.

Props to Lohse. We need someone to step up with the team struggling to get Arroyo a win. Nicely done Kyle.

Chip R
04-15-2007, 08:30 PM
He's consistantly inconsistant. Next time out he may give up 6 runs in 3 innings. Someone is going to overpay for him next year. Hopefully it won't be us.

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 08:37 PM
That means the money being spent on Milton and Lohse goes where?

a) Bob's pocket
b) The lineup
c) Relief help

A)Bronson Arroyo will have a bigger salary next year.

B)adam dunns option next year will be pretty big.

C)i hope a free agent closer

RedFanAlways1966
04-15-2007, 08:41 PM
He's consistantly inconsistant. Next time out he may give up 6 runs in 3 innings. Someone is going to overpay for him next year. Hopefully it won't be us.

Yep. I am not getting too excited yet. Last year his first 4 starts for the REDS made him seem like the future. Then he showed us why Minnesota was willing to let him go...

1st 4 starts
* 1.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP.

Last 7 starts
* 6.81 ERA, 1.68 WHIP.

I'll hope for the best, but I won't bet my lunch money on it panning out.

mth123
04-15-2007, 08:44 PM
He's consistantly inconsistant. Next time out he may give up 6 runs in 3 innings. Someone is going to overpay for him next year. Hopefully it won't be us.

Ab-so-lutely!

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 09:01 PM
A)Bronson Arroyo will have a bigger salary next year.

B)adam dunns option next year will be pretty big.

C)i hope a free agent closer

That's why Cincy always seems to plateau and doesn't make any huge leaps...any contracts coming off the books are already devoured by upcoming salary increases. It would be nice once in a while to have $10 or 15 million to blow on a free agent.

PuffyPig
04-15-2007, 09:03 PM
Would anyone still prefer to have a guy like Livingston pitch instead of him this season?

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 09:10 PM
That's why Cincy always seems to plateau and doesn't make any huge leaps...any contracts coming off the books are already devoured by upcoming salary increases. It would be nice once in a while to have $10 or 15 million to blow on a free agent.

had we not gave Bronson Arroyo a bigger contract he would of left...

if we dont pick up dunns option then we have next to no offense.

i could see us picking up 1 big name person next year to make a playoff run.

most of our team will be dirty cheap...
such as...
homer bailey
josh hamilton
joey votto... assuming all goes right
elizardo ramirez... assuming all works out
matt belise

the best thing about 08's season is that i think it will be griffeys last!

a outfield of these three will look pretty good...
hamilton CF
dunn LF
Jay Bruce RF


this team is starting to build something special down the road.
i just hope we can blossom a little early and make it in this year.

:beerme:

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 09:11 PM
Would anyone still prefer to have a guy like Livingston pitch instead of him this season?

Livingston > milton

i would start Livingston any day over milton

PuffyPig
04-15-2007, 09:18 PM
Livingston > milton

i would start Livingston any day over milton

Sorry, meant Lohse vs. Livingston.

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 09:23 PM
Sorry, meant Lohse vs. Livingston.

i dont know about starting livingston over lohse but you have 2 pretty good guys in AAA.

one of them homer.
if they don't want to bring up homer, i say they should give Phil Dumatrait a shot over milton.

Reds Freak
04-15-2007, 09:24 PM
I loved the umpire's strike zone today. Obviously MLB hitters didn't like it because they are used to strike zone's the size of a shoe box. No wonder home runs have gone up in recent years because pitcher's have to throw it right down the belt to get a called strike. It's time that umpires start calling the whole plate giving some advantage back to the pitcher. I was watching one of the Reds 1990 playoff games this past winter and was amazed at how big the strike zone was back then. It was at least an inch bigger on all sides then it is now. And hitters still managed to hit the ball.

remdog
04-15-2007, 09:50 PM
had we not gave Bronson Arroyo a bigger contract he would of left...

if we dont pick up dunns option then we have next to no offense.

i could see us picking up 1 big name person next year to make a playoff run.

most of our team will be dirty cheap...
such as...
homer bailey
josh hamilton
joey votto... assuming all goes right
elizardo ramirez... assuming all works out
matt belise

the best thing about 08's season is that i think it will be griffeys last!

a outfield of these three will look pretty good...
hamilton CF
dunn LF
Jay Bruce RF


this team is starting to build something special down the road.
i just hope we can blossom a little early and make it in this year.

:beerme:

You're asking for just about everything to go right.

We could have waited till this off season to resign Arroyo. If he has a great season you're in a bidding war, if not you save a lot of money to spend elsewhere. (shrug)

Dunn is pretty much in the boat same as Arroyo.

Consider that Arroyo/Harang suffer an injury or have had a career year in '06. Bailey, Bruce and Votto don't live up to expectations. Dunn walks. Hamilton had the peak of his career in ST of '07. The Reds don't have a major league catcher on the roster. How do ya' like me now say the Reds?

Do I think the scenario I just posted will happen? No. But it's just about as realistic as the one that was described looking through rose colored glasses. (shrug)

Rem

Willy
04-15-2007, 09:56 PM
That's why Cincy always seems to plateau and doesn't make any huge leaps...any contracts coming off the books are already devoured by upcoming salary increases. It would be nice once in a while to have $10 or 15 million to blow on a free agent.

I heard the Yankee's are looking for fans

kbrake
04-15-2007, 10:05 PM
No one seems to have minded the strike zone today but I have to wonder would you all feel the same had we lost 1-0? Not only that but had Dunn played he probably would have k'd looking 4 times at pitches below his knees. That was a real real tough zone today.

Highlifeman21
04-15-2007, 10:10 PM
i doubt we will have loshe next year.

i could be wrong but next year i see our rotation as
1)Aaron Harang
2)Bronson Arroyo
3)Homer Bailey
4)Matt Belisle
5)Elizardo Ramírez

color me with rose glasses but i think this would be a very good 1-5

Homer will be cheap along with Elizardo Ramírez and Matt Belisle :beerme:

this will free up a new contract for adam dun i hope!

2 things concerned me with this post....

1. Adam Dun(n) has a contract.

2. Elizardo Ramirez has about as much business pitching in the Reds' rotation about as much as I do. The kid is a mop up guy at best. He has zero upside.

Aside from that, great post.... :cool:

George Anderson
04-15-2007, 10:10 PM
I loved the umpire's strike zone today. Obviously MLB hitters didn't like it because they are used to strike zone's the size of a shoe box. No wonder home runs have gone up in recent years because pitcher's have to throw it right down the belt to get a called strike. It's time that umpires start calling the whole plate giving some advantage back to the pitcher. I was watching one of the Reds 1990 playoff games this past winter and was amazed at how big the strike zone was back then. It was at least an inch bigger on all sides then it is now. And hitters still managed to hit the ball.

When it is cold like today, the zone gets big!!!:p:

remdog
04-15-2007, 10:12 PM
When it is cold like today, the zone gets big!!!:p:

:laugh: Yeah, it does seem that way, doesn't it!?!

Rem

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 10:12 PM
I heard the Yankee's are looking for fans

Sorry...didn't know it was too much to ask for a team to look to improve and make a serious run rather than plugging holes with players who are one or two years away from retirement.

thatcoolguy_22
04-15-2007, 10:33 PM
No one seems to have minded the strike zone today but I have to wonder would you all feel the same had we lost 1-0? Not only that but had Dunn played he probably would have k'd looking 4 times at pitches below his knees. That was a real real tough zone today.

the bottom line about the strike zone today was it was consistently large. That is all most major league hitters will say that they ask for in an ump;consistency. Everyone knew by the end of the 3rd inning how it was and Lohse just took advantage of it.

Why should he be throwing a pitch over the outer half when he can still get the call 3 inches outside? You can not hold it against. He pitched exceptionally well TODAY and I hope he can keep it up.

Also Dunn might have been able to adjust... ;)

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 11:17 PM
You're asking for just about everything to go right.

We could have waited till this off season to resign Arroyo. If he has a great season you're in a bidding war, if not you save a lot of money to spend elsewhere. (shrug)

Dunn is pretty much in the boat same as Arroyo.

Consider that Arroyo/Harang suffer an injury or have had a career year in '06. Bailey, Bruce and Votto don't live up to expectations. Dunn walks. Hamilton had the peak of his career in ST of '07. The Reds don't have a major league catcher on the roster. How do ya' like me now say the Reds?

Do I think the scenario I just posted will happen? No. But it's just about as realistic as the one that was described looking through rose colored glasses. (shrug)

Rem

your right about arroyo, we would of been in a bidding war.
and you know the NYY would pay a golden boston boy a good 15+mil a year.

arroyo has already proven himself.

next year we have to pick up the option to have dunn, after that he will be a free agent.
i wouldn't mind getting him in for a longer contract, especially after miltons contract comes off the books.

arroyos 05 boston numbers are as good as his 06 reds numbers minus the SO's. so i wouldn't say he had his year of his lifetime last year and will now drop off the radar.

harang was better in 06 than 05 but i don't think he is a risk to turn into milton.

Bailey and Votto are living up to expectations now!

Bailey, if he keeps up the numbers he has started out, will be up here at some point this year.

votto will be a good replacement for our aging 1st base. (hopefully next year)

the scenario you posted would be if hell came and everybody turned into eric milton. LOL :evil:

REDREAD
04-15-2007, 11:19 PM
That's why Cincy always seems to plateau and doesn't make any huge leaps...any contracts coming off the books are already devoured by upcoming salary increases. It would be nice once in a while to have $10 or 15 million to blow on a free agent.

Wayne had over 30 million to blow this past offseason :) He just spread it out among many players. He could've easily signed a 10-15 million guy if he wanted to.

REDREAD
04-15-2007, 11:23 PM
Also, I don't mind that Wayne extended Arroyo earlier than he had to.

Sure, it was a risk, but it was a smart risk. It's nice to keep Arroyo happy. I'm sure the other players noticed to. It's nice to see the front office/ownership change from its old philosphy of waiting until the 11th hour to negotiate and then when the player bolts, calling him greedy, a bad seed, or whatever.

Sure, extending Arroyo might come back and bite us in the rearend, but it was a risk worth taking, IMO.

edabbs44
04-15-2007, 11:25 PM
Also, I don't mind that Wayne extended Arroyo earlier than he had to.

Sure, it was a risk, but it was a smart risk. It's nice to keep Arroyo happy. I'm sure the other players noticed to. It's nice to see the front office/ownership change from its old philosphy of waiting until the 11th hour to negotiate and then when the player bolts, calling him greedy, a bad seed, or whatever.

Sure, extending Arroyo might come back and bite us in the rearend, but it was a risk worth taking, IMO.

I'm in no way, shape or form comparing the two...but I said the same thing about Milton. I was happy with the signing, not because of Milton, but because they actually went out and spent some cash.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Arroyo re-signing. While it did give the team a better top 2 starters than we've seen for a long time, it's just a lot of money for someone who had a career year last season. I might be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But I thought dealing him at his peak, if possible, would have been a smart move this off-season.

redsgabp
04-15-2007, 11:32 PM
I'm in no way, shape or form comparing the two...but I said the same thing about Milton. I was happy with the signing, not because of Milton, but because they actually went out and spent some cash.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Arroyo re-signing. While it did give the team a better top 2 starters than we've seen for a long time, it's just a lot of money for someone who had a career year last season. I might be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But I thought dealing him at his peak, if possible, would have been a smart move this off-season.

look at arroyos boston numbers...

while last year may have been his best year, his numbers from bean town are great too.

look at him already this year, he has looked great.

kaldaniels
04-15-2007, 11:36 PM
That's why Cincy always seems to plateau and doesn't make any huge leaps...any contracts coming off the books are already devoured by upcoming salary increases. It would be nice once in a while to have $10 or 15 million to blow on a free agent.

Its as if you are upset with the salary increases....take alook around the majors, that is the structure of multi-year deals....please reconsider your statement. I understand you wish the Reds had money to spend, but you also have to lock up core guys with escalating deals. Every team in the major league deals with that, so your first sentence goes for all mid to small market clubs, not just Cincy as it seems you imply.

kaldaniels
04-15-2007, 11:38 PM
Right. I agree. I am NOT saying the Reds will HAVE Lohse next year. I was musing that IF he is focusing like he never has before because he is in his free agent walk year that the Reds might benefit. That's all.

And the same goes for Milton! :laugh:

boognish
04-15-2007, 11:42 PM
Arroyo's price hike, while risky, was good in several respects, but IMO most importantly because the extension showed that if you produce in a Reds uniform, you will be retained. It seems somewhat of a departure from past years.

I like Lohse more than most here, but cringe at the very real possibility of a similar contract doled out to him if he "puts it all together" and has a career year. That said, there is still plenty of time left in the season, and if Good Lohse shows up often enough to produce a career year, that is nothing but good for the Reds' chances this season...even if we see a few manifestations of Bad Lohse. Both sides of Lohse might even show up in the same start (read: the meatballs to Tracy and Snyder in Arizona in an otherwise decent outing). In the end, he will have to conquer the gruesome line he puts up against lefties, especially as we go into summer at GABP.

kaldaniels
04-15-2007, 11:42 PM
You're asking for just about everything to go right.

We could have waited till this off season to resign Arroyo. If he has a great season you're in a bidding war, if not you save a lot of money to spend elsewhere. (shrug)

Dunn is pretty much in the boat same as Arroyo.

Consider that Arroyo/Harang suffer an injury or have had a career year in '06. Bailey, Bruce and Votto don't live up to expectations. Dunn walks. Hamilton had the peak of his career in ST of '07. The Reds don't have a major league catcher on the roster. How do ya' like me now say the Reds?

Do I think the scenario I just posted will happen? No. But it's just about as realistic as the one that was described looking through rose colored glasses. (shrug)

Rem

It'd be a shame if Harang reverted to his 3.83 ERA in 2005. And another shame if Arroyo reverted to his 4.03 ERA in 2004. Point is...while it was a career year for both, they are 2 solid pitchers who eat innings. Injury aside, it is hard to find fault for extending those 2 guys now.

edabbs44
04-16-2007, 12:08 AM
Its as if you are upset with the salary increases....take alook around the majors, that is the structure of multi-year deals....please reconsider your statement. I understand you wish the Reds had money to spend, but you also have to lock up core guys with escalating deals. Every team in the major league deals with that, so your first sentence goes for all mid to small market clubs, not just Cincy as it seems you imply.

I'm not saying they shouldn't lock up the right players...I'm commenting on how whenever it's time for money to come off the books, it's already spent. So when Milton comes off the books, it's already eaten up by guys who are already here. The team doesn't get better in that case. It stays the same.

Just a comment...not bashing anyone.

remdog
04-16-2007, 12:13 AM
It'd be a shame if Harang reverted to his 3.83 ERA in 2005. And another shame if Arroyo reverted to his 4.03 ERA in 2004. Point is...while it was a career year for both, they are 2 solid pitchers who eat innings. Injury aside, it is hard to find fault for extending those 2 guys now.

And I'm not finding fault with those signings. As I said, I don't think the earth will crumble and fall into the sea tomorrow with the people involved. I'm just saying that someone like redsgabp and his 'everything works out perfect' plan is unrealistic. And, personally, redsgabp I don't have a problem with you/someone being optimistic but I think you should also be realistic (if it's possible that the two are compatible :) )

Bailey, Votto and Bruce have proven nothing at the ML level and the odds are that only one of the three will become a solid major league player. The odds that one of them will become a 'superstar' are minscule. If you think all three will be 'stars', go to Vegas and bet all of your money on '00', your odds are better there.

Back in '98 I was touting a football QB that was playing ball in the low minors with the Reds. I had a friend that was a University of Texas alum and I told him, 'this kid is going to be a star'. That kid is in LF for the Reds most days now but he's never lived up to my (and many others) expectations. He's a good/very good (depending on your definition) player but I don't consider him a 'star', plus his numbers are declining. (shrug) I'd be very happy if one of Bailey, Votto or Bruce became a 'star'.

We all know that injuries are the wild card. Any pitcher is one pitch away from the end of his career. Field players not so much but careers have ended for outstanding players with a bad pitch, a bad slide or meetings with OF walls.

Basically, as a Reds fan, I'm wishing everything comes true for all the projections for these kids. But I'm also pragmatic enough to know that it won't.

Rem

TRF
04-16-2007, 10:41 AM
Lohse on his outing against the DBacks:

"It was just a bad choice," Lohse said. "[It was] 3-2. I didn't care if I walked him. I had a base open, and I tried to throw one up and in and set something up for later at-bats. I end up throwing a strike. It wasn't good execution and a poor choice of pitches. Javy [Valentin] called a couple of other pitches and I shook to get to the one I wanted and just didn't execute it."

Another article quoted him saying "lesson learned."

I wonder how much of his game was called from the bench? I wonder if he was under orders not to shake off Ross? The talent is there, but the head has consistently been inconsistent. I think he has a poor baseball IQ.

But if the Reds have him on a tight leash, as I suspect they have with Belisle, this rotation's top 4 could surprise the hell out of the NL. Harang has go to get back on track though. Milton has just got to go.

If the reports of Dumatrait's velo are accurate, then the Reds have two choices before going to the Bailey well. I'd prefer they not go to him at all this year if possible. Dumatrait, Livingston and EZ once his shoulder regains strength (I'm thinking it will be June) should be the first to get the call. Leave Saarloos in the pen as the long reliever. It's about roles, and he fits that one well.

Big outing Tuesday. Tonight (Monday) is a lost cause, but Belisle vs Davis should be a good game.

BRM
04-16-2007, 10:46 AM
Tonight (Monday) is a lost cause, but Belisle vs Davis should be a good game.

Milton going for the Reds and a lefty (Capuano) going for the Brew Crew. Tonight will definitely be a tough one.

TRF
04-16-2007, 10:49 AM
The only saving grace is that the Reds seem to own Capuano.

Sadly the entire NL owns Milton.

RedsManRick
04-16-2007, 11:02 AM
I saw somebody mention this earlier, but thought it should be restated. Lohse has some really good stuff, he just doesn't always know how to use it. Ross did a very good job of not letting Lohse challenge guys inappropriately. He just kept running that 2 seamer over the low outside corner. When he hung that curve to Soriano to lead off the at bat late in the game, you could see he knew he got away with one.

Redsland
04-16-2007, 11:05 AM
I wonder how much of his game was called from the bench? I wonder if he was under orders not to shake off Ross?
According to published reports, Ross called the game himself. He noticed Lohse had a good backdoor slider during warmups, and started calling for it in the fourth inning. He kept calling it, Lohse kept executing it, and the Cubs could never do anything with it. So, despite going 0-3 with three strikeouts, Ross was reportedly very pleased after the game.

kaldaniels
04-16-2007, 11:06 AM
I'm not saying they shouldn't lock up the right players...I'm commenting on how whenever it's time for money to come off the books, it's already spent. So when Milton comes off the books, it's already eaten up by guys who are already here. The team doesn't get better in that case. It stays the same.

Just a comment...not bashing anyone.

Understood completely.

Redsland
04-16-2007, 11:06 AM
Sadly the entire NL owns Milton.
DL him until inter-league.

:)

(And remind him that the Brewers are really an AL franchise.)

BRM
04-18-2007, 01:15 PM
An interesting piece on Kyle Lohse from MLB Trade Rumors.



2008 MLB Free Agents: Kyle Lohse

I'm sure we'll revisit this after the season. But on a slow trade rumor day, let's take a closer look at a free agent pitcher who could cash in after this season: Kyle Lohse. It sounds absurd to say that about a guy who posted a 5.83 ERA last year, but Lohse might be primed for a three year, $24MM contract.

Lohse was never ranked among Baseball America's top 100 prospects. But as a 20 year-old pitching well in High A ball, he was enough to snag the Cubs a closer from the Twins in Rick Aguilera. The need had surfaced for Chicago after Rod Beck came down with bone spurs in his elbow.

So Lohse became a Twin, and initially struggled to master Double A. It didn't matter, as he was very young for his levels and reached the Majors in '01 as a 22 year-old. He didn't fare well in his 16 starts, though he command wasn't bad.

Lohse won the Twins' fifth starter job out of camp in '02, beating out Johan Santana among others. He had a fine year, winning 13 games with a 4.23 ERA. Lohse even tossed five scoreless postseason relief innings.

2003 was more of the same - 33 starts, 14 wins, and a strong 1.27 WHIP. His propensity to allow home runs kept his ERA in the mid 4s, but it was still a good year. A five win season, according to Baseball Prospectus.

He added a sinker in 2004, but it didn't help his home run rate. That worsened; his strikeout rate continued to drop, his control wasn't great, and he allowed tons of hits. Lohse made 34 starts but posted a 5.34 ERA.

That winter he reached arbitration for the first time. No agreement could be reached, so a hearing was conducted. Lohse was the winner and snagged $2.4MM despite coming off his worst season.

His first possible serious injury surfaced in '05, as he felt shoulder stiffness in April. The MRI came up clean and it turned out to be a non-issue. He pitched tolerably in the first half, generating talks of a swap to the Blue Jays for Shea Hillenbrand.

The trade didn't happen. In September of that year, Lohse badmouthed Ron Gardenhire in the media and also punched several clubhouse doors, injuring his finger temporarily. The two sides made amends, but the finger injury lingered a bit.

That winter, Lohse again went to arbitration with the Twins and beat them, winning $3.95MM. It wasn't a bad year - a 4.18 ERA in 30 starts.

In the spring of 2006, Lohse scrapped his curve to go with only his fastball, changeup, and slider. Somehow, he earned a rotation spot over Francisco Liriano out of camp. The new approach didn't work - Lohse was awful in April and earned a trip to Triple A. He was angered by the demotion, but pitched well in four starts. The Mets, Red Sox, and other clubs expressed interest. He returned to the Twins in June and worked as a reliever, posting a 4.44 ERA out of the pen in 26 innings.

Twin-loving Reds GM Wayne Krivsky traded for Lohse at the deadline, giving up prospect Zach Ward. So far in 14 National League starts, Lohse has found the league very much to his liking. His strikeout rate is way up, and his command looks great. Is it a first-time-around-the-league mirage? We'll need more data to be sure, but many pitchers have rejuvenated their careers in the NL.

As far as I can tell, Lohse has a decent repertoire. He is said to throw harder than Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang, and his manager raves about his changeup. Reds pitching coach Dick Pole loves his stuff. He finally avoided arbitration as a Red, as seems to enjoy it there. Lohse considers the American League "Arena Baseball," so he probably won't be going back.

Lohse doesn't turn 29 until October, making him one of the younger free agent pitchers out there. He also has a fine health history. Lohse's next contract should fall somewhere between Jason Marquis's 3/21 and Gil Meche's 5/55. It's not inconceivable that Lohse could get $8-10MM annually and three years. Given his age, a team might even have to add a fourth year to win his services.


LINK (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/)

Will M
04-20-2007, 10:27 PM
after tonight -

IP 28.1
H 26
BB/K 3/23
WHIP 1.02
batting average against .236
ERA 1.91

Great start for 2007.

mth123
04-20-2007, 10:31 PM
Tonight wasn't in cold weather. Good sign.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-20-2007, 11:37 PM
After tonight, Lohse has made 15 starts for the Reds since the trade last summer.

90.1 IP (6.0 IP per start)
73 K (7.3 K/9IP)
22 BB
92 H
1.26 WHIP
3.70 ERA

Pretty damn impressive. I'd say he's a solid #3 in this rotation.

For now.

thatcoolguy_22
04-20-2007, 11:48 PM
Reds record when I am in attendance 2006: 1-13

Reds record when I am in attendance 2007: 1-2



Kind of off topic but WATCH GAMES ONLY ON TV FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR!!!!!

fearofpopvol1
04-21-2007, 02:19 AM
It's hard to say he's been anything but a #3 starter. Heck, so far he's looked better than any starter on the team. Not really expecting him to continue that trend, but he's been great so far. Hopefully he can keep it up.

tripleaaaron
04-21-2007, 02:20 AM
This is a terrific thing to see not just for the obvious reasons, but more for the reason that this possibly could establish some confidence and help to limit some of the personal head games we all know that he is prone to put himself through, we all also know that he has the talent and perhaps more potential than anyone but if he can perhaps establish his head in the manner that he knows he can dominate, than perhaps he will. And even if he comes back to earth a little bit, he can help to keep himself in control and confident, and in the long run that could win us alot of games. I just hope we can score more runs behind him to get him a few more wins under his belt.

mth123
04-21-2007, 05:34 AM
After tonight, Lohse has made 15 starts for the Reds since the trade last summer.

90.1 IP (6.0 IP per start)
73 K (7.3 K/9IP)
22 BB
92 H
1.26 WHIP
3.70 ERA

Pretty damn impressive. I'd say he's a solid #3 in this rotation.

For now.

I admit that I've been a non-believer in Lohse to the point that I lump him with Milton when thinking about the Reds rotation. I want him to emerge as that number 3 very badly but just can't get past his history in Minnesota and the fact that he was dumped from the rotation, sent to the minors and deemed not only expendable but viewed as a guy who had to be moved (addition by subtraction).

Last night, in pretty good hitting conditions, he pitched real well. But when I look at those stats I see a guy who had a decent first time around the league hot streak last year and some cold weather dominance early this year when offense has been down in general. I'm enjoying this run from Lohse, but just can't buy into him yet. There are reasons to think that these stats are a little artificial and that Lohse is pitching above his head due to these other factors. But last night, in warm weather against a team that has faced him, he was pretty darn effective. If he is still on this roll at the end of April, I may just buy in.

OesterPoster
04-21-2007, 08:16 AM
I like what Lohse has done too, but I'm a little skeptical along with some of you. Chicago was missing Ramirez in their lineup, and the Phillies were missing Howard in their lineup last night. Granted, that's only 2 bats, but those are 2 huge bats.

As long as he keeps ahead in the count and throwing a ton of first pitch strikes, he'll be okay. I'm slowly moving towards optimism for each game he pitches, but there's still a little doubt in the back of mind. Call me cautiously optimistic.

membengal
04-21-2007, 08:32 AM
As I said much earlier and many days ago in this thread, never underestimate the contract drive in a free agent walk year. Never.

Sea Ray
04-21-2007, 08:41 AM
As I said much earlier and many days ago in this thread, never underestimate the contract drive in a free agent walk year. Never.

That's kind of where I'm at as well. Let's say Lohse has a great year. He'll be due a Jaret Wright/Carl Pavano contract...big money after one career year. If you're WK do you bite?

I think not. But let's hope he gives us a great 2007, say thank you and move on.

bucksfan2
04-21-2007, 08:47 AM
Right now Lohse is pitching the best of anyone on this current staff. I am kind of curious as to why people are just waiting for him to fall on his face instead of saying maybe he finally "gets it." Yea the Twins wanted to get rid of him but that was more due to a falling out between him and his manager. Lohse has pitched back to back games where he has only allowed one run and last night was a big outing because the reds had come off two straight losses.

Sea Ray
04-21-2007, 08:50 AM
Lohse has pitched back to back games where he has only allowed one run and last night was a big outing because the reds had come off two straight losses.

For that reason, look for his name when they annouce NL pitcher of the week next week

Degenerate39
04-21-2007, 11:03 AM
As I said much earlier and many days ago in this thread, never underestimate the contract drive in a free agent walk year. Never.

Enter A-Rod

KoryMac5
04-21-2007, 11:12 AM
As I said much earlier and many days ago in this thread, never underestimate the contract drive in a free agent walk year. Never.

Isn't Milton in his contract year, he must be in Lohse's bizarro world. ;)

mth123
04-21-2007, 12:33 PM
I am kind of curious as to why people are just waiting for him to fall on his face instead of saying maybe he finally "gets it."




Year K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP ERA WHIP
2001 6.38 2.89 1.59 5.31 5.68 1.45
2002 6.18 3.49 1.3 5.01 4.23 1.39
2003 5.82 2.01 1.35 4.46 4.61 1.27
2004 5.15 3.53 1.3 5.22 5.34 1.63
2005 4.33 2.22 1.11 4.73 4.18 1.43
2006 6.89 3.13 1.07 4.39 5.83 1.53


His Reds tenure has had some extenuating circumstances (first time around the league, cold weather) that could help him be successful. His history suggests he isn't this good. I hope you are right that he has gotten his stuff together.

I get the whole "salary drive" thing, and the whole "maturing as he ages" thing, and the whole "he's in his prime now" thing, but lots of bad pitchers have had good stretches. I need to see a more sustained success to wipe out the 5 years of bad or iffy at best shown above.

Cedric
04-21-2007, 12:49 PM
Year K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP ERA WHIP
2001 6.38 2.89 1.59 5.31 5.68 1.45
2002 6.18 3.49 1.3 5.01 4.23 1.39
2003 5.82 2.01 1.35 4.46 4.61 1.27
2004 5.15 3.53 1.3 5.22 5.34 1.63
2005 4.33 2.22 1.11 4.73 4.18 1.43
2006 6.89 3.13 1.07 4.39 5.83 1.53


His Reds tenure has had some extenuating circumstances (first time around the league, cold weather) that could help him be successful. His history suggests he isn't this good. I hope you are right that he has gotten his stuff together.

I get the whole "salary drive" thing, and the whole "maturing as he ages" thing, and the whole "he's in his prime now" thing, but lots of bad pitchers have had good stretches. I need to see a more sustained success to wipe out the 5 years of bad or iffy at best shown above.

That's not a horrendous track record. 02, 03, and 05 aren't bad numbers considering that was the American League. I'm not sure that Kyle is going to be a steady player on this team, but I believe he's a viable back end rotation pitcher.

RedsManRick
04-21-2007, 01:00 PM
Unless you're Johan Santana, every pitcher is a mix of good and bad nights. You can't discount the streak of 16 scoreless innings unless you similarly discount that 4 IP, 6 ER outing he surely has coming up at some point. However, you can start to judge pitchers by their aggregate performances. At this point, Lohse looks like Milton with a higher top end, thus making his overall numbers a bit more palatable.

mth123
04-21-2007, 01:03 PM
That's not a horrendous track record. 02, 03, and 05 aren't bad numbers considering that was the American League. I'm not sure that Kyle is going to be a steady player on this team, but I believe he's a viable back end rotation pitcher.

I'd take a duplication of any of those years, but even in 02 his FIP shows his results may have been a little lucky (BABIP of .287, the best of his career). Looking at the WHIP and HR numbers suggests a Miltonesque type of pitcher. A full year in Cincy when the weather warms up may prove it. I hope I'm wrong.

TeamEncarnacion
04-21-2007, 01:10 PM
I'd take a duplication of any of those years, but even in 02 his FIP shows his results may have been a little lucky (BABIP of .287, the best of his career). Looking at the WHIP and HR numbers suggests a Miltonesque type of pitcher. A full year in Cincy when the weather warms up may prove it. I hope I'm wrong.

hes had a really good half year combined his whole time here almost as good as harang

Patrick Bateman
04-21-2007, 01:18 PM
I'd take a duplication of any of those years, but even in 02 his FIP shows his results may have been a little lucky (BABIP of .287, the best of his career). Looking at the WHIP and HR numbers suggests a Miltonesque type of pitcher. A full year in Cincy when the weather warms up may prove it. I hope I'm wrong.



Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2004 Phillies 7.21 3.36 2.15 1.93 .257 1.35 .274 76.5 % 5.51
2005 Reds 5.94 2.51 2.37 1.93 .311 1.55 .329 64.6 % 5.62
2006 Reds 5.31 2.48 2.14 1.71 .275 1.34 .282 68.5 % 5.41


Milton's HR rates the last 3 years are in the 1.80/9 range while Lohse is in the 1.20 range.

Lohse has been a far better pitcher the last while and there is no valid comparison at this point. Plus he is actually showing signs of improving which seems to be something Milton is incapable of at this juncture in his career.

TeamEncarnacion
04-21-2007, 01:21 PM
Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2004 Phillies 7.21 3.36 2.15 1.93 .257 1.35 .274 76.5 % 5.51
2005 Reds 5.94 2.51 2.37 1.93 .311 1.55 .329 64.6 % 5.62
2006 Reds 5.31 2.48 2.14 1.71 .275 1.34 .282 68.5 % 5.41


Milton's HR rates the last 3 years are in the 1.80/9 range while Lohse is in the 1.20 range.

Lohse has been a far better pitcher the last while and there is no valid comparison at this point. Plus he is actually showing signs of improving which seems to be something Milton is incapable of at this juncture in his career.

no1 is ever incapable of improving he might be getting just a little older but if his leg feels good he should do good out there

Patrick Bateman
04-21-2007, 01:23 PM
no1 is ever incapable of improving he might be getting just a little older but if his leg feels good he should do good out there

His leg hasn't been good in 3 years since his injury occurred. How long does it take for injuries to heel?

TeamEncarnacion
04-21-2007, 01:30 PM
His leg hasn't been good in 3 years since his injury occurred. How long does it take for injuries to heel?

along time if they dont get fixed properly but he hasnt extremely bad this year he do better sure but he has a lot of strike oust and not too many hits given up.

mth123
04-21-2007, 02:07 PM
Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2004 Phillies 7.21 3.36 2.15 1.93 .257 1.35 .274 76.5 % 5.51
2005 Reds 5.94 2.51 2.37 1.93 .311 1.55 .329 64.6 % 5.62
2006 Reds 5.31 2.48 2.14 1.71 .275 1.34 .282 68.5 % 5.41


Milton's HR rates the last 3 years are in the 1.80/9 range while Lohse is in the 1.20 range.

Lohse has been a far better pitcher the last while and there is no valid comparison at this point. Plus he is actually showing signs of improving which seems to be something Milton is incapable of at this juncture in his career.


But Lohse wasn't pitching in Philly or Cincy. I think his HR numbers would have been higher.

Patrick Bateman
04-21-2007, 02:09 PM
But Lohse wasn't pitching in Philly or Cincy. I think his HR numbers would have been higher.

The Metrodome and being in the AL didn't exactly make his life a hitter's paradise.

His HR numbers would probably have been incrementally higher if he was in Cicny during his career, but there would still be a massive .40 -.50 HR/9 difference.

mth123
04-21-2007, 02:22 PM
The Metrodome and being in the AL didn't exactly make his life a hitter's paradise.

His HR numbers would probably have been incrementally higher if he was iun Cicny during his career, but there would still be a massive .40 -.50 HR/9 difference.

You're probably right. 1.4 or 1.5 HR per nine isn't 1.8 or so, but its still high and the point is that lots of HR coupled with lots of baserunners is a combination that doesn't suggest success in a park that encourages HR. I think Lohse could be a good starter in San Diego or Seattle. But even Milton would be better there. So would just about every pitcher. As I said earlier, if he puts his 2007 types of numbers up for another few weeks after the weather has warmed, I'll buy in.

Willy
04-21-2007, 05:18 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1199090#post1199090


I hope he keeps it up

savafan
04-22-2007, 03:37 AM
As I said much earlier and many days ago in this thread, never underestimate the contract drive in a free agent walk year. Never.

You know, I understand the logic behind guys trying to perform well when they stand a chance to earn money, but the part of it that upsets me is that guys should always be playing at their best no matter what, that's what my job expects of me, and I'm sure most of our employers expect that out of us. Work ethic is a beautiful thing.

AmarilloRed
04-28-2007, 01:22 AM
Kyle Lohse has said he is open to an extension. I think Krivsky should try to get it done if he keeps giving us quality starts.

fearofpopvol1
04-28-2007, 05:15 PM
Kyle Lohse has said he is open to an extension. I think Krivsky should try to get it done if he keeps giving us quality starts.

He has looked sharp this year, but I think if his value continues to climb he becomes a very valuable trading piece come the deadline...

savafan
04-28-2007, 05:34 PM
He has looked sharp this year, but I think if his value continues to climb he becomes a very valuable trading piece come the deadline...

Wouldn't he be even more valuable if he's signed to a reasonably priced contract extension?

fearofpopvol1
04-28-2007, 06:03 PM
Wouldn't he be even more valuable if he's signed to a reasonably priced contract extension?

Perhaps, but it could be risky. I'm also not sure the Reds could get him for a reasonable extension with Borris and the fact that he was already (at least according to most) already been overpaid for this year.

AmarilloRed
04-29-2007, 04:10 PM
Lets see what Lohse considers a reasonable extension. We could always use a good quality starter.

Stingray
04-29-2007, 04:27 PM
Lets see what Lohse considers a reasonable extension. We could always use a good quality starter.


If he's still pitching well at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be against keeping him at a reasonable cost.

There's a significant chance, however, that he'd be having a career year. If some team would overpay in quality AA -AAA prospects it would probably be the soundest approach for a small market team interested in long term success - get one or two guys who could have 5+ low cost, high production, years and preserve your resources for an occassional key FA.

Marc D
04-29-2007, 04:34 PM
If he's still pitching well at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be against keeping him at a reasonable cost.

There's a significant chance, however, that he'd be having a career year. If some team would overpay in quality AA -AAA prospects it would probably be the soundest approach for a small market team interested in long term success - get one or two guys who could have 5+ low cost, high production, years and preserve your resources for an occassional key FA.


I agree but we'll probably be hovering at .500 and within 5 games of the leader(s) so we won't do it.

I'd love to see what the yankees would be willing to part with for him and some of our bullpen parts though.

savafan
04-29-2007, 04:45 PM
I guess you have to really look hard at Lohse at that time. He's always had the stuff, there's no question about that. Scouts have always said that he had the potential. Has Dick Pole brought that out in him, or is this all just a fluke? If it's a fluke, and you can see that, then deal him, but if the Lohse we're seeing right now is the pitcher that he has become, the Reds may have the beginnings of the best starting pitching staff in baseball.

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2007, 04:58 PM
I guess you have to really look hard at Lohse at that time. He's always had the stuff, there's no question about that. Scouts have always said that he had the potential. Has Dick Pole brought that out in him, or is this all just a fluke? If it's a fluke, and you can see that, then deal him, but if the Lohse we're seeing right now is the pitcher that he has become, the Reds may have the beginnings of the best starting pitching staff in baseball.

Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.

His turnaround started last season, and he's continued building on it this season.

In 97 innings as a Red, Lohse has a K:BB ratio of 3.35 and HR/9 is 0.93. Remember, he has also doen this in a homerun park, so he has really been even better than that. 97 innings is still a rather small sample size, but it is worth considering when he has showed such a sharp turnaround.

His accomplishments so far have not been a factor of good fortune, but instead have been due to very impressive pitching. Thus, there is no reason to think that he shouldn't be able to continue contributing as an above average starting pitcher, even if it isn't quite up to par with his current success.

PuffyPig
04-29-2007, 05:18 PM
Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.



So, is that picture below your name a recent picture of you?

Stingray
04-29-2007, 05:25 PM
Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.

His turnaround started last season, and he's continued building on it this season.

In 97 innings as a Red, Lohse has a K:BB ratio of 3.35 and HR/9 is 0.93. Remember, he has also doen this in a homerun park, so he has really been even better than that. 97 innings is still a rather small sample size, but it is worth considering when he has showed such a sharp turnaround.

His accomplishments so far have not been a factor of good fortune, but instead have been due to very impressive pitching. Thus, there is no reason to think that he shouldn't be able to continue contributing as an above average starting pitcher, even if it isn't quite up to par with his current success.


I agree with your assessment but, extending Loshe(or any player), you have to consider cost/risk/benefit vs alternatives.

With Loshe:

1. Cost: If he's still pitching like he has so far he'll be offered $10+/year by some large market team.

2. Risk: - career year , injury

3. Benefit: - A #1 or #2 Starter

Alternative - 2 or 3 high ceiling prospects from A+ to AAA(at the trade deadline)

If you consider the chance that one of those prospects reaching his ceiling is as good as Loshe continuing to pitch at a high level for several years, I'd go with the prospects because you'll have control of that prospect at a low cost and can apply the savings to another FA, improved scouting, trade, or other ways that can improve your club..

Whereas if Loshe slips w/i a year or 2 your small market team is hamstrung throughout the lenght of his contract - see Eric Milton, Ken Griffey Jr.

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2007, 05:25 PM
So, is that picture below your name a recent picture of you?

It's actually a picture of you waking up in the morning after a long night on the town.

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2007, 05:33 PM
I agree with your assessment but, extending Loshe(or any player), you have to consider cost/risk/benefit vs alternatives.

With Loshe:

1. Cost: If he's still pitching like he has so far he'll be offered $10+/year by some large market team.

2. Risk: - career year , injury

3. Benefit: - A #1 or #2 Starter

Alternative - 2 or 3 high ceiling prospects from A+ to AAA(at the trade deadline)

If you consider the chance that one of those prospects reaching his ceiling is as good as Loshe continuing to pitch at a high level for several years, I'd go with the prospects because you'll have control of that prospect at a low cost and can apply the savings to another FA, improved scouting, trade, or other ways that can improve your club..

Whereas if Loshe slips w/i a year or 2 your small market team is hamstrung throughout the lenght of his contract - see Eric Milton, Ken Griffey Jr.

My post was only in regards to this season's outlook.

IMO, Lohse is a poor bet for a long term deal since this would be his first above average season (assuming it does continue). He may have suddenly figured it out, but I think his impending free agency also factors in quite a bit.

If he does have a big season he is going to be due about 10M as you said, and generally guys with Lohse's track record are not good bets in the long run.

I have been one of his biggest supporters mainly because I like the idea of getting a potential above avergage starter for basically nothing even if it was only a 1 year thing.

If the Reds are out of it come the deadline, I would not hesitate to move him for the best deal available and would prefer not to show him the money especially with the Reds' budget constraints. Assuming the Reds are still in contention, I would be more than satisfied to ride him for the duration and let him walk via free agency. Arbitration is also a possibility because if he has a great year, he's pretty likely to decline when 4 year offers in the 35-40M range are going to be offered. That would allow us to net some decent draft picks for him. even if he accpeted he would have trade value on a 1 year deal.

But basically I see this as his last season in a Reds uniform.

AmarilloRed
04-30-2007, 01:21 AM
Arroyo and Harang both have only had 1 above-average year. Why is it different for them? I do hope your wrong and we can sign him to a long-term deal. We should try and give him the money we pay Milton when his deal expires.:help:

Screwball
04-30-2007, 02:10 AM
Bailey, Votto and Bruce have proven nothing at the ML level and he odds are that only one of the three will become a solid major league player. The odds that one of them will become a 'superstar' are minscule. If you think all three will be 'stars', go to Vegas and bet all of your money on '00', your odds are better there.


John Sickels, author of Baseball Prospect Book, disagrees with you. He uses a grading system for prospects, combining statistics with scouting reports. He grades Bailey as an A and says, "one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball." He gives Bruce an A- and states, "strong tools with developing skills." As for Votto, he grades him as a B+ and says, "breakthrough looks real to me."

When commenting on the Reds overall farm system, Sickels writes, "this system has two future stars in Bailey and Bruce, two very good prospects in Votto and Cueto, then a bunch of question marks and spare parts." Seems to me that having all 3 of them turn out to be stars isn't as preposterous as you make it out to be.

As for the actual thread, I'm a big Lohse fan and got into many a nasty debate with friends before this season started. Personally, I really don't see why he can't be this year's Bronson Arroyo. If the Reds are out of it come trade dealine, unload him to the highest bidder and upgrade the farm. But if we're still in it (and I firmly believe we will be), you gotta keep someone with that much talent on the roster. I would welcome a long term contract much the same as Krivsky gave BA.

Stingray
04-30-2007, 04:11 PM
John Sickels, author of Baseball Prospect Book, disagrees with you. He uses a grading system for prospects, combining statistics with scouting reports. He grades Bailey as an A and says, "one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball." He gives Bruce an A- and states, "strong tools with developing skills." As for Votto, he grades him as a B+ and says, "breakthrough looks real to me."

When commenting on the Reds overall farm system, Sickels writes, "this system has two future stars in Bailey and Bruce, two very good prospects in Votto and Cueto, then a bunch of question marks and spare parts." Seems to me that having all 3 of them turn out to be stars isn't as preposterous as you make it out to be.

As for the actual thread, I'm a big Lohse fan and got into many a nasty debate with friends before this season started. Personally, I really don't see why he can't be this year's Bronson Arroyo. If the Reds are out of it come trade dealine, unload him to the highest bidder and upgrade the farm. But if we're still in it (and I firmly believe we will be), you gotta keep someone with that much talent on the roster. I would welcome a long term contract much the same as Krivsky gave BA.

If Loshe is still pitching like a #2+ starter at the deadline, I'd offer him a Harang/Arroyo deal. The trouble is I think he'll want $30M+ over 3 years or more.

TRF
04-30-2007, 05:03 PM
It's odd, but Belisle and Lohse have very similar stats right now. The key difference being Lohse has given up 3 HR's to Matt's 0 HR's. Both have allowed 12 runs, 11 earned for Lohse, 12 for Belisle. Both have similar K rates right now.

I'm ok with letting Lohse walk after offering him arb. I'm ok with dealing him at the deadline if the Reds are hopelessly out of it.

But for the time being, I think I'll enjoy both Lohse and Belisle's efforts. Just because they are so eerily similar right now.

UC_Ken
04-30-2007, 05:28 PM
I wouldn't give Lohse a contract off a career year. He had some good years in Minnesota but his career can be classified as inconsistent. Signing him long term could be the second coming of the Milton contract. Not that I think he's not coming into his own but at times in his career Lohse has been Milton-bad. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets can afford to eat the cost if he busts, we can't.

UK Reds Fan
04-30-2007, 05:29 PM
With Arroyo and Harang at the top...you've got to think Bailey will be considered a viable #3 over the next 3 years. Now with Belisle showing some stuff this year, not to mention what Rameriz showed last season still rehabbing.

I just don't see the Reds showing even a 6-7 mill per year deal over 4 years to Lohse. Assuming health, we're looking to have plugged in 4 of the 5 spots and you can always go an array of directions with a #5 guy. (Sarloos, Livingston, Ramirez...possibly picking up a feeler in off-season for cheap, etc..). I think we'll need those resources to secure our offense hopefully and let Lohse go with a big thank you for the 1.5 seasons he gave us.

harangatang
04-30-2007, 05:32 PM
With Arroyo and Harang at the top...you've got to think Bailey will be considered a viable #3 over the next 3 years. Now with Belisle showing some stuff this year, not to mention what Rameriz showed last season still rehabbing.

I just don't see the Reds showing even a 6-7 mill per year deal over 4 years to Lohse. Assuming health, we're looking to have plugged in 4 of the 5 spots and you can always go an array of directions with a #5 guy. (Sarloos, Livingston, Ramirez...possibly picking up a feeler in off-season for cheap, etc..). I think we'll need those resources to secure our offense hopefully and let Lohse go with a big thank you for the 1.5 seasons he gave us.Lohse is one of Krivsky guys from Minnesota. He's not going anywhere.

AmarilloRed
05-01-2007, 12:10 AM
Lohse has always had great stufff. It was consistancy he always lacked. If he shows signs of being the pitcher Minnesota always expected him to be. Lets wait and see how both Belisle and Lohse do this year. We can always use 5 quality starting pitchers.

AmarilloRed
05-03-2007, 01:29 AM
Another fine start by Lohse tonight-6 innings, 3 earned runs. He is really raising his trade value, and making it hard for us to re-sign him.

bucksfan2
05-03-2007, 08:58 AM
Another fine start by Lohse tonight-6 innings, 3 earned runs. He is really raising his trade value, and making it hard for us to re-sign him.

I didn't know if anyone would mention this but imo Lohse had an impressive start last night. He did not have his best stuff and struggled the entire game. However he only gave up 3 runs over 6 innings which I will take any day of the week. I just think there are a lot of people who are waiting for Lohse to fail and will bring out his whip or other numbers to discount his starts, but they guy continues to pitch solid baseball. I for one would happy to see him as a red for the next few years.

osuceltic
05-03-2007, 09:29 AM
Most encouraging start of the season from Lohse. The knock on him has been he doesn't know how to survive when he doesn't have his best stuff. Last night, he definitely didn't have his best stuff. But he battled and kept the team in the game. Very encouraging.

TRF
05-03-2007, 09:53 AM
While I admire the effort to pitch when you obviously don't have your best stuff, a few thoughts came to my mind.


Why did he tire so early?
Is it just me, or is the Houston offense pretty blech?
11 baserunners in 6 innings is a lot.
Regardless of the lineup, Oswalt is in the Reds collective heads.


But he kept them in the game. That's all you can ask sometimes.

hebroncougar
05-03-2007, 10:01 AM
While I admire the effort to pitch when you obviously don't have your best stuff, a few thoughts came to my mind.


Why did he tire so early?
Is it just me, or is the Houston offense pretty blech?
11 baserunners in 6 innings is a lot.
Regardless of the lineup, Oswalt is in the Reds collective heads.


But he kept them in the game. That's all you can ask sometimes.

You answered most of your questions with the bolded statement. The question on tiring so early can be pointed to the fact that he threw so many pitches with runners on. That's more mentally taxing than anything. Alot of times the mentality tiredness of a pitcher seems to have as much to do with his performance as his physical tiredness.

BRM
05-03-2007, 11:03 AM
From C. Trent:



POSTGAME: I walked out with Kyle after his outing, and when we got out of the clubhouse is where our paths split. Sitting right there was Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey grabs me. "Can I say one thing?"

I go, "yeah."

Griffey looks at me and says, "He pitched his ass off. He didn't have his best stuff and he kept us in it."

That's a guy who earned a lot of respect in a losing outing. I thought that was damn impressive.

Another thing I noticed going through my tape -- we were talking to Griffey about Oswalt and his success against the Reds. he said, "yeah, it's like the same thing with Billy Hall" referring to the Brewers outfielder who has killed the Reds in recent years.

UC_Ken
05-03-2007, 12:57 PM
It's definately a sign of respect that Griffey makes mention of Lohse pitching well without his best stuff but I also think it's a sign that Griffey is more of a leader than most make him out to be. He didn't have to grab Trent to do this.

AmarilloRed
05-03-2007, 01:28 PM
Its still early, but Krivsky should look into what terms Lohse would be willing to re-sign.We may not be able to do it until Milton is off the books, but he should try to do it if it can be done.

VR
05-03-2007, 03:05 PM
You answered most of your questions with the bolded statement. The question on tiring so early can be pointed to the fact that he threw so many pitches with runners on. That's more mentally taxing than anything. Alot of times the mentality tiredness of a pitcher seems to have as much to do with his performance as his physical tiredness.


David Ross?

Redsland
05-03-2007, 03:34 PM
David Ross?
I don't follow.

hebroncougar
05-03-2007, 03:43 PM
David Ross?

If you're asking whether the results would have been different if Ross had caught, I don't know the answer to that. Would have have called for 7 straight fastballs to start the game?? Not sure he would have, but are the Reds pitchers allowed to shake something off?? I hope Lohse learned something about first inning grooved fastballs, I'm sure the next team will be looking for them.

AmarilloRed
05-04-2007, 01:37 AM
Lohse has gone deep a number of times. He has the capability to do it,and I am sure he will do it in the future.

GAC
05-04-2007, 09:15 AM
I like what Thom Brennaman said about Lohse in the 5th inning.... that even though he didn't have his best stuff, he was showing maturity and a mental toughness in fighting through and getting out of a few situations. Before, people never questioned his stuff; but did his mental approach, and that he didn't have the mental fortitude, but would melt down.

Lets hope it's what we'll see more from him. And the same with Belisle. ;)

membengal
05-08-2007, 11:21 AM
Bumping back up after another solid effort from Lohse last night. Given the trend to the season (down, down, down) and Milwaukee's hot start (Reds may be buried by early July), if Lohse continues to be effective (please, please, please) then he really might be a nice trading chip at the deadline as he heads into his free agent off-season.

I still have hope for at least that.

Will M
05-08-2007, 12:26 PM
Bumping back up after another solid effort from Lohse last night. Given the trend to the season (down, down, down) and Milwaukee's hot start (Reds may be buried by early July), if Lohse continues to be effective (please, please, please) then he really might be a nice trading chip at the deadline as he heads into his free agent off-season.

I still have hope for at least that.

This was my thought in the offseason. I thought Lohse would have a career year ( doesn't every potential free agent? ).
In July if the Reds are in contention they keep him.
If they fall out of contention they trade him for a nice return.

flyer85
05-08-2007, 12:29 PM
This was my thought in the offseason. I thought Lohse would have a career year ( doesn't every potential free agent? ).
In July if the Reds are in contention they keep him.
If they fall out of contention they trade him for a nice return.I'd trade him now before he turns back into a pumpkin. He is not in the future plans and this team is finished for 2007.

RedEye
05-08-2007, 12:32 PM
Its still early, but Krivsky should look into what terms Lohse would be willing to re-sign.We may not be able to do it until Milton is off the books, but he should try to do it if it can be done.

I think it's in our interest (and Lohse's interest) to wait a few more months. If he's still logging quality starts with regularity, keeping the team in games, and surviving the hot summer at GABP, then I think Krivsky starts looking seriously at two things--trading and/or signing him.

BRM
05-08-2007, 12:40 PM
I'd trade him now before he turns back into a pumpkin. He is not in the future plans and this team is finished for 2007.

My guess is he probably is in Wayne's future plans.

Will M
05-08-2007, 12:46 PM
If Lohse continues to pitch well it will be a tough decision on whether to resign him. He'll get Suppan/Marquis money. If 2007 was a mirage then we'll have another 'Milton' on our hands. However if he really has gotten it together we'll have a great starting rotation ( Harang-Arroyo-Lohse-Belisle-Bailey )

PuffyPig
05-08-2007, 12:54 PM
If Lohse continues to pitch well it will be a tough decision on whether to resign him. He'll get Suppan/Marquis money. If 2007 was a mirage then we'll have another 'Milton' on our hands. However if he really has gotten it together we'll have a great starting rotation ( Harang-Arroyo-Lohse-Belisle-Bailey )


Marquis is 3 year, $21M.

Suppan is 4 years, $42M.

I might do the first.

flyer85
05-08-2007, 01:04 PM
Marquis is 3 year, $21M.

Suppan is 4 years, $42M.

I might do the first.Lohse has never had a good season in the majors as a starter. For the most part he has been bad. The Reds are likely to get the same level of performance from guys in the minors. Let someone else take the risk, he is not a good gamble on a 3+ year deal.

I was in favor of the Lohse trade last August(one of the few) because I thought he could help in the short term. However, in the long term he is a bad bet and hopefully the Reds will capitalize on his good start and go in a different direction.

paintmered
05-08-2007, 01:07 PM
Kyle Lohse has said he is open to an extension. I think Krivsky should try to get it done if he keeps giving us quality starts.

I thought we already learned our lesson with Jimmy Haynes.

AmarilloRed
05-08-2007, 02:23 PM
Another fine start last night. I am willing to wait a couple of months. I do belive he won over 15 games one year in Minnesota. I would consider that a good season. I think he just had troubles in Minnesota and disliked the move to the bullpen. Kyle Lohse is no Jimmy Haynes. He is one of those pitchers with tremendous stuff who Minnesota was expecting to be a front-line pitcher. He had a couple of good years in the begiinning, but lost his way as a starter,and was sent to the bullpen. I have all the confidence in the world he will win 15 games this year if the bullpen doesnt lose all his games.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 02:29 PM
If 2007 was a mirage then we'll have another 'Milton' on our hands.

It's a mirage.

Don't be fooled.

Cyclone792
05-08-2007, 02:37 PM
Bumping back up after another solid effort from Lohse last night. Given the trend to the season (down, down, down) and Milwaukee's hot start (Reds may be buried by early July), if Lohse continues to be effective (please, please, please) then he really might be a nice trading chip at the deadline as he heads into his free agent off-season.

I still have hope for at least that.

It's funny how things work, but you're right that the Reds abysmal start to 2007 may be a longterm blessing if they make the right decision regarding Kyle Lohse.

At this point, Lohse is not a guy I'm looking forward to the Reds offering a guaranteed contract in upwards of nearly $10 million a year for the necessary length of time to dissuade him from testing the free agent market. The ideal scenario for the Reds and their decision-making process involving Lohse is for him to build his trade value up as high as he possibly can, then sell him for a truckload of premium prospects to a team hoping to contend.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 02:46 PM
I do belive he won over 15 games one year in Minnesota. I would consider that a good season.

Jimmy Haynes won 15 games for the Reds in 2002 while having a season that was virtually identical to his 2001 season with the Brewers where he lost 17.

Wins and losses don't really mean squat when it comes to pitchers.

Kyle's trick this season has been keeping the ball in the park. In spite of the fact that he's giving up more fly balls and getting fewer ground balls than at any point in his career, the ball is (thus far) staying in the yard. His control has also been much better, as he's walking far fewer batters. However, you're talking about a guy whose BB/9 rate right now is down nearly 40% from his *career* average. It's not likely to stay that way for long.

Don't be deceived--he might have improved somewhat, but at this point in his career, he's not reinventing himself. When the evenings start getting hotter as we head into late May and June, if Lohse is not able to maintain the high bar of control that he's established for himself thus far, he's going to start putting a lot more men on base, and a lot of those fly ball outs will turn into home runs.

As a reds fan, what you really hope for is that he keeps this up long enough to entice some team to overpay for him. That's how he can best benefit the Reds.

lollipopcurve
05-08-2007, 02:48 PM
then sell him for a truckload of premium prospects to a team hoping to contend.

These days, no team deals a bunch of premium prospects for a player they can control for a matter of weeks. If the Reds can't extend him (and I hope they try to, at a hometown discount -- though it's very unlikely for any Boras client to agree to that), they may well prefer to keep him all year and take draft pick compensation in 08.

Cyclone792
05-08-2007, 03:12 PM
These days, no team deals a bunch of premium prospects for a player they can control for a matter of weeks. If the Reds can't extend him (and I hope they try to, at a hometown discount -- though it's very unlikely for any Boras client to agree to that), they may well prefer to keep him all year and take draft pick compensation in 08.

If Kyle Lohse can build his trade value high enough the first half of the season, then he could draw interest from several teams. Get enough leverage in a negotiation, especially if a team believes their main division rival is on the other line, then they may be willing to bend and overpay slightly. Obviously Kyle Lohse won't bring in a Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce caliber prospect, but he could bring in one or more prospects who have a legitimate shot at contributing nicely at the major league level.

Now the compensation angle is interesting, but the Reds better beware. Given that the compensation pick standards have recently been toughened and that Lohse's 2006 overall numbers statistically were awful, I'm not sure his free agent classification level could net the Reds a high enough compensation pick that could match the type of return the Reds could acquire in a trade. This past offseason Lohse didn't even qualify as a Type C classification due to his awful 2006 season, and he would have to climb all the way into the top 40 percent to qualify as a Type B player in order to allow the Reds to collect a compensation pick. Unfortunately, Lohse's 2005 season was actually pretty decent, and his 2007 season will effectively replace his 2007 season in terms of his free agent classification.

I hate to say it, but Lohse's 2006 season was so bad that the chances of him climbing up to Type B classification are a bit iffy at this point. If he's not at least a Type B player, then the Reds won't even receive one pick.

AmarilloRed
05-08-2007, 03:21 PM
I would like to believe this is Lohse breakout year He has always had the stuff to be be an ace, but not the mental makeup. I would be very happyif he could be the Reds' Arroyo this year. Arroyo also came from the American League and turned out to be a quality pitcher. We got a hometown discount with Harang, and I expect to have to pay for Lohse if he has an era under 4.00 and 15 wins. Please lets drop all these false analogies to Jimmy Haynes that are total nonsense

lollipopcurve
05-08-2007, 03:27 PM
If Kyle Lohse can build his trade value high enough the first half of the season, then he could draw interest from several teams. Get enough leverage in a negotiation, especially if a team believes their main division rival is on the other line, then they may be willing to bend and overpay slightly. Obviously Kyle Lohse won't bring in a Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce caliber prospect, but he could bring in one or more prospects who have a legitimate shot at contributing nicely at the major league level.

Now the compensation angle is interesting, but the Reds better beware. Given that the compensation pick standards have recently been toughened and that Lohse's 2006 overall numbers statistically were awful, I'm not sure his free agent classification level could net the Reds a high enough compensation pick that could match the type of return the Reds could acquire in a trade. This past offseason Lohse didn't even qualify as a Type C classification due to his awful 2006 season, and he would have to climb all the way into the top 40 percent to qualify as a Type B player in order to allow the Reds to collect a compensation pick. Unfortunately, Lohse's 2005 season was actually pretty decent, and his 2007 season will effectively replace his 2007 season in terms of his free agent classification.

I hate to say it, but Lohse's 2006 season was so bad that the chances of him climbing up to Type B classification are a bit iffy at this point. If he's not at least a Type B player, then the Reds won't even receive one pick.

Excellent points. Certainly argues for a relatively early determination on the Lohse front. If the team continues to flounder and falls double-digits back, they may be able to get some decent leverage in early trade talks. I'd settle for 1 very good prospect in return. Still, I hope they try to engage him in talks about a hometown deal for 3 years. I like Lohse better than most -- good stuff, young, durable. But I'm not optimistic it will happen.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 03:34 PM
Please lets drop all these false analogies to Jimmy Haynes that are total nonsense

They're only nonsense if you refuse to look at the numbers and see the parallels. Lohse may have better "stuff" than Haynes, but neither one was ever a very effective pitcher. haynes had his year in 2002 (which wasn't even that good of a year), and Lohse may or may not be having his now.

Prior to this year, we've had 5 full seasons to assess what Kyle Lohse brings to the table. It's not that great. I'm certainly not going to jump on the bandwagon to offer him a LT deal after one good month.

membengal
05-08-2007, 03:39 PM
Atlanta remains short an arm...

mth123
05-08-2007, 09:33 PM
I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

Cedric
05-08-2007, 09:39 PM
When was the last time the Reds had a GM that sold high? It just doesn't happen. These guys have some pipe dream that they actually built a good team.

The Snow Chief
05-08-2007, 09:40 PM
I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

In my short time on this board, this is the best post I've seen.

AmarilloRed
05-09-2007, 01:02 AM
We have been looking for quality starting pitchers for years. I saw Jimmy Haynes pitch back in the day. I have also seen Lohse pitch and the two are in no way comparable.Also, Lohse ' has had some good years in Minnesota, before they moved him to the bullpen. I think he is as quality a pitcher as Arroyo is, and he could help our team long-term. All I am asking is if he continues to pitch well into the summer months, we try to re-sign him. I would rather he pitch well for the Reds for a number of years, rather than for another team. I dont think it is a mirage,and he has given me no evidence that he is. We can always trade him in the summer if it becomes clear he will not re-sign. Krisky seems to re-sign starting pitchers who have proven themselves on the field.

Patrick Bateman
05-09-2007, 01:20 AM
I'm a Lohse supporter, but I can't see any way that he can be mentioned in the same breath as Arroyo at this point.

AmarilloRed
05-09-2007, 01:30 AM
If he continues to pitch this well all season, he should start being mentioned. I am not saying he is as good as Arroyo now; however, if he does it all year we should think about it.

registerthis
05-09-2007, 10:03 AM
If he continues to pitch this well all season, he should start being mentioned.

Repeat after me:

Sell high, sell high, sell high, sell high...

lollipopcurve
05-09-2007, 10:19 AM
Sell high, sell high, sell high, sell high...

And replace Lohse with?

And then replace Milton with?

membengal
05-09-2007, 10:22 AM
Dumatrait, Saarloos, Livingston, Bailey... whomever, doesn't matter, if you can turn Lohse into a top prospect, you do it without reservation. I guarantee you Billy Beane would be working overtime to do just that with a guy like Lohse, as Lohse approaches his free agent off-season and is focusing on getting to that pot of gold at the end of the free agent rainbow...

registerthis
05-09-2007, 10:58 AM
And replace Lohse with?

I'm not necessarily saying "trade him yesterday".

But I certainly don't advocate for a contract extension. If he manages to keep this up through July, move him then to a pennant contender. Let them (or some other team) shell out $10 million/year for his 4.75 ERA services.

Stingray
05-09-2007, 11:03 AM
Try for a BA top 20 prospect plus a high ceiling A or low A guy(think EE) from a contender willing to overpay. The Reds aren't going to win this year, build for the 2009 window. Whatever you do DON'T go for a middling ML reliever.

HAVE A PLAN - GO FOR 2009.

Marc D
05-09-2007, 11:09 AM
I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

Here here, great post!


And replace Lohse with?

And then replace Milton with?

Who cares, this season is shot whats the difference on how far back you finish? sarloos can start, find another pitcher in house to be a stop gap in the starting rotation. we have plenty of in house filler to replace sarloos in the pen.


Try for a BA top 20 prospect plus a high ceiling A or low A guy(think EE) from a contender willing to overpay. The Reds aren't going to win this year, build for the 2009 window. Whatever you do DON'T go for a middling ML reliever.

HAVE A PLAN - GO FOR 2009.

I wish I could brand that to WK's forehead.

lollipopcurve
05-09-2007, 11:09 AM
Let them (or some other team) shell out $10 million/year for his 4.75 ERA services.

Age 23 -- 4.23 in 180 innings
Age 24 -- 4.61 in 201 innings
Age 26 -- 4.18 in 178 innings
Age 27/28 (with Reds) -- 3.98 in 111 innings

Discount his 5.68 ERA in 90 innings as a 22 year-old, and I'm pretty sure you've got better than a 4.75 pitcher.

Stingray
05-09-2007, 11:30 AM
Age 23 -- 4.23 in 180 innings
Age 24 -- 4.61 in 201 innings
Age 26 -- 4.18 in 178 innings
Age 27/28 (with Reds) -- 3.98 in 111 innings

Discount his 5.68 ERA in 90 innings as a 22 year-old, and I'm pretty sure you've got better than a 4.75 pitcher.


The question, in my mind, isn't can Loshe be a quality starter - he probaly can that's what makes him a valuable trading chip for the Reds.

The question is can the Reds afford to gamble big $ on a guy who won't put them over the top this or probably next year and could implode and be an anchor for the lenght of any contract extention. If he would sign a Harang or Arroyo type extention the answer might be yes but I think he'll be looking for FA big bucks($10/yr for 4 years+).

If he's not willing to sign at a very reasonable cost, he's an asset the Reds need to cash in as soon as they can find a trade partner willing to pay the price.

lollipopcurve
05-09-2007, 11:45 AM
If he's not willing to sign at a very reasonable cost, he's an asset the Reds need to cash in as soon as they can find a trade partner willing to pay the price.

And I've been saying, 3 years, hometown discount. So we pretty much agree. However, I think it's unrealistic to expect the Reds will cut bait soon, even if they know they can't sign him. Castellini is about winning (and selling tickets), not about running up a white flag.

Marc D
05-09-2007, 11:56 AM
And I've been saying, 3 years, hometown discount. So we pretty much agree. However, I think it's unrealistic to expect the Reds will cut bait soon, even if they know they can't sign him. Castellini is about winning (and selling tickets), not about running up a white flag.


If BC shows us through his actions in the coming months that he's more interested in keeping a mediocre product on the field for attendance than doing the right thing to make us better for the future then a lot of the public venom for Narron and WK will start heading in his direction.

If he shows his true colors to be the same as Uncle Carl after he comes in running his mouth about winning he'll be skyrocketing to Mike Brown status in Cincy sports fans world and deservedly so.

Stingray
05-09-2007, 03:36 PM
And I've been saying, 3 years, hometown discount. So we pretty much agree. However, I think it's unrealistic to expect the Reds will cut bait soon, even if they know they can't sign him. Castellini is about winning (and selling tickets), not about running up a white flag.


It's not about a white flag.

It's about having a plan.

AmarilloRed
05-10-2007, 01:44 PM
I just dont see Krivsky trading any good starting pitchers he has unless its impossible to re-sign them. How many of us thought he could or would resign Arroyo? I bet many of us thought Arroyo would be traded for prospects when the time came. Krivsky will do everything he can to resign Lohse if he proves himself on the field.

lollipopcurve
05-10-2007, 02:03 PM
It's not about a white flag.

It's about having a plan.

Sell that plan in your ticket-buying marketplace before summer has even started.

BRM
05-10-2007, 03:37 PM
Age 23 -- 4.23 in 180 innings
Age 24 -- 4.61 in 201 innings
Age 26 -- 4.18 in 178 innings
Age 27/28 (with Reds) -- 3.98 in 111 innings

Discount his 5.68 ERA in 90 innings as a 22 year-old, and I'm pretty sure you've got better than a 4.75 pitcher.

Age 25 -- 5.34 ERA in 194 innings.

lollipopcurve
05-10-2007, 04:57 PM
Age 25 -- 5.34 ERA in 194 innings.

What's your point?

BRM
05-10-2007, 05:00 PM
What's your point?

I just noticed you left out his age 25 season is all.

lollipopcurve
05-10-2007, 05:05 PM
I just noticed you left out his age 25 season is all.

Yeah. I also left out his 2006 innings in Minnesota. The point being that more often than not Lohse has been a sub 4.75 pitcher and at a young age.

BRM
05-10-2007, 05:07 PM
Yeah. I also left out his 2006 innings in Minnesota. The point being that more often than not Lohse has been a sub 4.75 pitcher and at a young age.

The stats do show that. He looks good for awhile and bad for awhile. Hopefully he's matured and turned the corner as a reliable starter.

Aronchis
05-10-2007, 05:08 PM
Loshe has little future with the Reds. They already have given Arroyo and Harang signifigent coin in the future, they are developing Belisle and Bailey(though both are questionable admittably). Loshe could hit the FA market and get some good coin.

What the Reds need is a good lefty to fill out the rotation.

Loshe looks like trade deadline meat or draft pick giver which Krivsky craves.

registerthis
05-10-2007, 05:31 PM
Age 23 -- 4.23 in 180 innings
Age 24 -- 4.61 in 201 innings
Age 26 -- 4.18 in 178 innings
Age 27/28 (with Reds) -- 3.98 in 111 innings

Discount his 5.68 ERA in 90 innings as a 22 year-old, and I'm pretty sure you've got better than a 4.75 pitcher.

He's got a career ERA of 4.79.

But whatever, we're picking nits...ERA isn't even how I would value him. He's a flyball pitcher who doesn't have high strikeout totals and puts a lot of guys on base...and is not a pitcher I would be investing big $$$ in.

BRM
05-10-2007, 05:37 PM
He's got a career ERA of 4.79.

But whatever, we're picking nits...ERA isn't even how I would value him. He's a flyball pitcher who doesn't have high strikeout totals and puts a lot of guys on base...and is not a pitcher I would be investing big $$$ in.

Nor would I. His best value to the Reds may very well be as trade bait at the deadline, assuming he continues pitching well.

mth123
05-19-2007, 04:46 AM
His best value to the Reds may very well be as trade bait at the deadline, assuming he continues pitching well.

It looks like the Reds waited too long. I was an advocate of trading Lohse in the off-season before the arbitration season got into swing. If the Braves could get Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez ...

Now it appears that the cold weather boost of April has turned into the reality of May. Lohse' ERA is up to 4.75 and is over 8 since the weather warmed-up.

Any thoughts of a top prospect are gone IMO. The Reds will be best served to look for an undervalued young major leaguer at an area of need for Lohse at this point. Looking back, teams probably weren't fooled by his hot start anyway just as last night's debacle probably didn't effect his value either. I think the league knows who and what he is and the board was right all along. Lohse is a bottom of the rotation starter who costs too much. He may prove an upgrade for a contender where the difference between completely horrible and pretty bad might mean something and that has some value. Time to cash in is fast approaching.

lollipopcurve
05-19-2007, 05:43 AM
slipping off the front of the Lohse bandwagon, without anyone noticing....

Blitz Dorsey
05-19-2007, 09:42 AM
I just dont see Krivsky trading any good starting pitchers he has unless its impossible to re-sign them. How many of us thought he could or would resign Arroyo? I bet many of us thought Arroyo would be traded for prospects when the time came. Krivsky will do everything he can to resign Lohse if he proves himself on the field.

Arroyo was a completely different situation. The Reds had him locked up for two more years -- making negotiations much easier in the offseason. Lohse can be a free agent after this season and is looking for the biggest payday he can get. The Reds need to trade him as soon as they can find some value in return. There will be one team out there willing to overpay a little bit for a back of rotation starter like Lohse. But the Reds better not wait too long while he continues his slump and/or gets hurt. Trade him as soon as you can.

(Same deal for Milton, but the Reds would have to eat some of his salary obviously.)

Reds Freak
05-19-2007, 10:32 AM
I've never seen a guy look so dominant at some times and then his next start or even his next inning have the complete inability to retire a hitter. It's not like he gives up a lot of cheap hits. When he loses it, opposing hitters hit rocket shots. It doesn't make any sense to me, it's almost like the batters know what is coming. I'm guessing this is the Kyle Lohse that the Twins grew tired of...

Patrick Bateman
05-19-2007, 01:11 PM
Last night was obviously very ugly, but I still like Lohse as a 3-4 guy in the rotation.

He's done more good than bad this season, and if not for the bad defense and some unfortuante luck (2 things he can't control), that 4.75 ERA would be much lower. He has been less effective lately, but overall he has pitched very well, and as long as he continues a similar pace, the ERA will likely come down to a reasonable number. He's not a great bet over a number of seasons, but for the short term, I see him pitching more effectively. If that happens, his trade value should be very high knowing the market for pitchin right now.