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Cyclone792
04-16-2007, 10:57 AM
Note: This will be a continuous thread throughout the season that I hope to be able to update around twice a month to show how the Reds are trending both offensively and pitching/defensively.

Last season I ran a running thread throughout the season to track the Reds' statistical trends from a pitching/defense viewpoint, and I even attempted to highlight some of the differences in games in which Griffey started in center field compared to games in which he did not, and in games in which Harang or Arroyo started on the mound compared to games in which they did not.

This season I'm going to try to take the analysis a bit further and monitor the trends for both the offense and the pitching/defense. When the Reds trend up, we'll have a pretty good idea why, and when the Reds trend down, we'll similarly have a pretty good idea why. First, here's the offensive output through the first two weeks of the season ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2005 NL 4.45 .262 .330 .414 .744 100 11.83 38.50 20.89 12.73 48.38 5.88

2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2006 NL 4.76 .265 .334 .427 .761 100 11.67 35.35 20.77 12.19 49.24 5.76

2007 Reds 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
2007 NL 4.09 .250 .326 .387 .713 100 --- --- --- --- --- --


R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2007 Reds 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33

The Reds' offense can be summed up nicely throughout the first two weeks of the season with just two words: they stunk. However, the National League as a whole has seen a drop in offense as well so the level of stink from Reds batters is only moderate when compared to the rest of the league. Of course, a large chunk of the country was stuck in well below average temperatures through the first two weeks of the season, and hitters typically do not like cold weather. As the weather warms up, so will offenses across the league, and the hope is that the Reds offense heats up hotter than the rest of the league.

As it stands now though, Reds batters have excelled thus far this season in one offensive category, walks, and they're taking walks with an improved PA/BB ratio of 8.84 (i.e. Reds batters have drawn one walk per every 8.84 plate appearances). In each of the previous two seasons, Reds batters averaged one walk per every 10+ plate appearances. If the Reds can maintain their very nice walk rate throughout the season, their on-base percentage and run scoring will ultimately benefit.

However, extra base hits and any type of hits period have disappeared from the Reds lineup almost entirely during the first two weeks of 2007. The team's batting average has dropped to .226, which is 24 points lower than the NL as a whole currently. Both home runs and doubles are way down from the previous two seasons, and the Reds' team slugging percentage has dropped all the way down to .344. Even the NL as a whole, despite being down itself, is still slugging .387 collectively. In 2005, the Reds averaged an extra base hit every 11 plate appearances. In 2006, that number creeped up to one extra base hit every 12 plate appearances. So far in 2007, the Reds are only smacking an extra base hit every 18 plate appearances.

Not surprisingly, the lack of hits and extra base hits has dropped the Reds' runs per game average all the way down to 3.58 runs per game. While the NL's run scoring has also dropped down to 4.09 runs per game, the Reds' offense is still performing at a below average clip altogether. As the weather warms up, so should the offense, but if the Reds continue to pace below the league average offensively then it could become very difficult to keep contending in the NL Central.

Now the pitching/defense, and this has been a very pleasant surprise for all Reds fans ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2005 NL 4.45 4.22 4.27 100 1.02 6.57 3.29 1.99 1.89 .708 .300

2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2006 NL 4.76 4.49 4.39 100 1.12 6.71 3.39 1.98 1.91 .705 .303

2007 Reds 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
2007 NL 4.09 3.66 4.06 100 0.82 6.62 3.61 1.83 ---- --- ---


R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2007 Reds 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300

A couple reference points here ...

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The batting average on all balls hit into play off a pitching staff. This is primarily determined by a combination of luck and the fielding defense behind the pitcher. League average is around the .300 mark, and normally BABIP figures usually find their way back to that .300 mark as the number of games increases. If a pitching staff is below .300, they are considered to be hit-lucky. If they are above .300, they are considered to be hit-unlucky. Regression to the mean, in this case .300, almost always occurs as a season progresses.

DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio): The ratio of balls in play that the defense is able to convert into outs. This is also driven partially by luck, however, teams with better fielding defenses will almost certainly find their way among the league leaders in DER while teams with poorer fielding defenses will likely find their way among the league trailers in DER. A very good DER would be near 0.740, while a very poor DER would be around 0.670. League average is around the 0.700 to 0.710 level.

dERA is DIPS ERA, which is a formula originally created by Voros McCracken. It is a stat that attempts to isolate the factors that are not dependent on the fielding defense behind a pitcher (i.e. strikeouts, walks, and home runs). It is used to deterine how an individual pitcher or pitching staff has performed regardless of the defense behind them.

ERA+ is simply a measure of a pitcher or team's ERA, adjusted for home park, and compared to the league average. An ERA+ over 100 is above average, and below 100 is below average.

Most of the other pitching statistics should be fairly self-explanatory.

Not only have the 2007 Reds improved in every pitching category from last season, they're at least above average in every category compared to the NL this season, and in some instances they're well above average. Have Reds pitchers likely had an advantage pitching to hitters in cold weather so far in 2007? Most likely, but so has the rest of the league as a whole. When offense heats up, pitching numbers will regress a bit league-wide, but hopefully the regression for the Reds' staff won't outpace the league-wide regression.

Personally, I'm excited about the altogether improvement across the board.

Reds pitchers are striking out over a batter more per 9 innings than they did in 2006, and they're also walking fewer batters per 9 innings than they did in 2006. They've also allowed fewer home runs, and their DIPS ERA has dropped a full run. Defensively, the team's defensive efficiency ratio has improved from previous seasons, and the team's BABIP allowed is right on league average compared to being well below average during the previous two seasons. Tally it up, and it's easy to see how the Reds' team ERA and runs allowed figures have dropped by 1.5 runs.

Here's the Reds' pitching staff splits by starters and relievers ...


Starting and Relief Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2005 Starters 5.38 4.93 1.56 6.07 2.95 2.06
2006 Starters 4.58 4.43 1.31 6.61 2.64 2.50
2007 Starters 3.54 3.25 1.06 7.66 2.00 3.82

2005 Relievers 4.75 4.44 1.05 5.87 3.34 1.75
2006 Relievers 4.44 4.74 1.36 6.44 3.40 1.89
2007 Relievers 1.72 3.98 0.86 7.47 3.45 2.17

Once again, there's a significant improvement from previous seasons in just about every category. Reds starters are striking out more batters, walking fewer batters, and allowing fewer home runs (though the latter is helped by Eric Milton only receiving one start so far). Reds relievers have improved everywhere except for their walk ratio.

Now here's the Reds' game splits by games started by Harang/Arroyo or other starting pitchers. All relief performances occurring in games in which Harang or Arroyo started are included in their category, and all relief performances occurring in games started by other starting pitchers are included in that category. The goal is to show how the average total pitching effort looks in each category. Coming into the season, a massive question mark is how the Reds pitching would perform in games not started by Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo. So far, that answer is looking nice ...


Game Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2006 Arroyo/Harang 3.83 4.14 1.17 7.13 2.62 2.72
2007 Arroyo/Harang 3.46 3.41 0.52 7.62 3.29 2.32

2006 Other SP 5.04 4.80 1.42 6.13 3.11 1.97
2007 Other SP 2.59 3.49 0.97 7.60 1.62 4.70

The numbers we're seeing in games started by the back end of the rotation are almost a cinch to worsen, but so far the pitching has been better overall in non Harang/Arroyo starts. Not surprisingly, as the season continues the pitching staff as a whole will rely much more heavily on Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo than it has so far.

Finally, the raw runs scored/allowed and actual record for the first two weeks ...

April 2-15 totals: 43 runs scored and 41 runs allowed in 12 games with an actual record of 7-5.

As the season continues and the Reds' offense and pitching/defense trend in various directions, we'll have a nice idea when the Reds are collectively spiking up and fading down.

Redsland
04-16-2007, 11:15 AM
Nice work! Very informative.

:clap:

Crosley68
04-16-2007, 11:16 AM
Thanks Cyclone. I look forward to the updates throughout the season.

Handofdeath
04-16-2007, 11:25 AM
Note: This will be a continuous thread throughout the season that I hope to be able to update around twice a month to show how the Reds are trending both offensively and pitching/defensively.

Last season I ran a running thread throughout the season to track the Reds' statistical trends from a pitching/defense viewpoint, and I even attempted to highlight some of the differences in games in which Griffey started in center field compared to games in which he did not, and in games in which Harang or Arroyo started on the mound compared to games in which they did not.

This season I'm going to try to take the analysis a bit further and monitor the trends for both the offense and the pitching/defense. When the Reds trend up, we'll have a pretty good idea why, and when the Reds trend down, we'll similarly have a pretty good idea why. First, here's the offensive output through the first two weeks of the season ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2005 NL 4.45 .262 .330 .414 .744 100 11.83 38.50 20.89 12.73 48.38 5.88

2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2006 NL 4.76 .265 .334 .427 .761 100 11.67 35.35 20.77 12.19 49.24 5.76

2007 Reds 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
2007 NL 4.09 .250 .326 .387 .713 100 --- --- --- --- --- --


R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2007 Reds 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33

The Reds' offense can be summed up nicely throughout the first two weeks of the season with just two words: they stunk. However, the National League as a whole has seen a drop in offense as well so the level of stink from Reds batters is only moderate when compared to the rest of the league. Of course, a large chunk of the country was stuck in well below average temperatures through the first two weeks of the season, and hitters typically do not like cold weather. As the weather warms up, so will offenses across the league, and the hope is that the Reds offense heats up hotter than the rest of the league.

As it stands now though, Reds batters have excelled thus far this season in one offensive category, walks, and they're taking walks with an improved PA/BB ratio of 8.84 (i.e. Reds batters have drawn one walk per every 8.84 plate appearances). In each of the previous two seasons, Reds batters averaged one walk per every 10+ plate appearances. If the Reds can maintain their very nice walk rate throughout the season, their on-base percentage and run scoring will ultimately benefit.

However, extra base hits and any type of hits period have disappeared from the Reds lineup almost entirely during the first two weeks of 2007. The team's batting average has dropped to .226, which is 24 points lower than the NL as a whole currently. Both home runs and doubles are way down from the previous two seasons, and the Reds' team slugging percentage has dropped all the way down to .344. Even the NL as a whole, despite being down itself, is still slugging .387 collectively. In 2005, the Reds averaged an extra base hit every 11 plate appearances. In 2006, that number creeped up to one extra base hit every 12 plate appearances. So far in 2007, the Reds are only smacking an extra base hit every 18 plate appearances.

Not surprisingly, the lack of hits and extra base hits has dropped the Reds' runs per game average all the way down to 3.58 runs per game. While the NL's run scoring has also dropped down to 4.09 runs per game, the Reds' offense is still performing at a below average clip altogether. As the weather warms up, so should the offense, but if the Reds continue to pace below the league average offensively then it could become very difficult to keep contending in the NL Central.

Now the pitching/defense, and this has been a very pleasant surprise for all Reds fans ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2005 NL 4.45 4.22 4.27 100 1.02 6.57 3.29 1.99 1.89 .708 .300

2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2006 NL 4.76 4.49 4.39 100 1.12 6.71 3.39 1.98 1.91 .705 .303

2007 Reds 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
2007 NL 4.09 3.66 4.06 100 0.80 6.59 3.52 1.87 ---- --- ---


R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2007 Reds 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300

A couple reference points here ...

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The batting average on all balls hit into play off a pitching staff. This is primarily determined by a combination of luck and the fielding defense behind the pitcher. League average is around the .300 mark, and normally BABIP figures usually find their way back to that .300 mark as the number of games increases. If a pitching staff is below .300, they are considered to be hit-lucky. If they are above .300, they are considered to be hit-unlucky. Regression to the mean, in this case .300, almost always occurs as a season progresses.

DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio): The ratio of balls in play that the defense is able to convert into outs. This is also driven partially by luck, however, teams with better fielding defenses will almost certainly find their way among the league leaders in DER while teams with poorer fielding defenses will likely find their way among the league trailers in DER. A very good DER would be near 0.740, while a very poor DER would be around 0.670. League average is around the 0.700 to 0.710 level.

dERA is DIPS ERA, which is a formula originally created by Voros McCracken. It is a stat that attempts to isolate the factors that are not dependent on the fielding defense behind a pitcher (i.e. strikeouts, walks, and home runs). It is used to deterine how an individual pitcher or pitching staff has performed regardless of the defense behind them.

ERA+ is simply a measure of a pitcher or team's ERA, adjusted for home park, and compared to the league average. An ERA+ over 100 is above average, and below 100 is below average.

Most of the other pitching statistics should be fairly self-explanatory.

Not only have the 2007 Reds improved in every pitching category from last season, they're at least above average in every category compared to the NL this season, and in some instances they're well above average. Have Reds pitchers likely had an advantage pitching to hitters in cold weather so far in 2007? Most likely, but so has the rest of the league as a whole. When offense heats up, pitching numbers will regress a bit league-wide, but hopefully the regression for the Reds' staff won't outpace the league-wide regression.

Personally, I'm excited about the altogether improvement across the board.

Reds pitchers are striking out over a batter more per 9 innings than they did in 2006, and they're also walking fewer batters per 9 innings than they did in 2006. They've also allowed fewer home runs, and their DIPS ERA has dropped a full run. Defensively, the team's defensive efficiency ratio has improved from previous seasons, and the team's BABIP allowed is right on league average compared to being well below average during the previous two seasons. Tally it up, and it's easy to see how the Reds' team ERA and runs allowed figures have dropped by 1.5 runs.

Here's the Reds' pitching staff splits by starters and relievers ...


Starting and Relief Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2005 Starters 5.38 4.93 1.56 6.07 2.95 2.06
2006 Starters 4.58 4.43 1.31 6.61 2.64 2.50
2007 Starters 3.54 3.25 1.06 7.66 2.00 3.82

2005 Relievers 4.75 4.44 1.05 5.87 3.34 1.75
2006 Relievers 4.44 4.74 1.36 6.44 3.40 1.89
2007 Relievers 1.72 3.98 0.86 7.47 3.45 2.17

Once again, there's a significant improvement from previous seasons in just about every category. Reds starters are striking out more batters, walking fewer batters, and allowing fewer home runs (though the latter is helped by Eric Milton only receiving one start so far). Reds relievers have improved everywhere except for their walk ratio.

Now here's the Reds' game splits by games started by Harang/Arroyo or other starting pitchers. All relief performances occurring in games in which Harang or Arroyo started are included in their category, and all relief performances occurring in games started by other starting pitchers are included in that category. The goal is to show how the average total pitching effort looks in each category. Coming into the season, a massive question mark is how the Reds pitching would perform in games not started by Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo. So far, that answer is looking nice ...


Game Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2006 Arroyo/Harang 3.83 4.14 1.17 7.13 2.62 2.72
2007 Arroyo/Harang 3.46 3.41 0.52 7.62 3.29 2.32

2006 Other SP 5.04 4.80 1.42 6.13 3.11 1.97
2007 Other SP 2.59 3.49 0.97 7.60 1.62 4.70

The numbers we're seeing in games started by the back end of the rotation are almost a cinch to worsen, but so far the pitching has been better overall in non Harang/Arroyo starts. Not surprisingly, as the season continues the pitching staff as a whole will rely much more heavily on Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo than it has so far.

Finally, the raw runs scored/allowed and actual record for the first two weeks ...

April 2-15 totals: 43 runs scored and 41 runs allowed in 12 games with an actual record of 7-5.

As the season continues and the Reds' offense and pitching/defense trend in various directions, we'll have a nice idea when the Reds are collectively spiking up and fading down.

I agree with a lot of what you have to say. I will say this though, the Reds can lead the league in walks but unless they can start putting the bat on the ball it won't mean anything. They are still a group of undisciplined hitters whose all or nothing philosophy at the plate can result in 10 runs in a game or 10 games where they score a total of 10 runs. I'm hoping Jacoby can turn this around. Their philsophy at the plate has to change.

VR
04-16-2007, 12:22 PM
great thread Cyclone, it will be fun to follow.

Shaving off that many runs overall (24?) is crazy....and I also like the fact that they've only committed 5 errors, compared to 11 last year.

steig
04-16-2007, 12:26 PM
very good work:clap:

vaticanplum
04-16-2007, 06:38 PM
Two questions, Cyclone:

1. How is DER determined?

2. Would you mind giving up your life for a whie so you can do this for every team in the Central? Thanks.

ochre
04-17-2007, 01:43 AM
Two questions, Cyclone:

1. How is DER determined?


From the fount of all accumulated human knowledge (wikipedia):

Defense-Independent ERA (dERA),[1] (http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips2.html) created by Voros McCracken (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voros_McCracken), projects what a pitcher's earned run average (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average) would have been, if not for the effects of defense and luck on the actual games in which he pitched.
Version 2.0 of dERA uses the following statistics:

Batters Faced (BFP) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_batters_faced)
Home Runs Allowed (HR) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_runs_allowed)
Total Walks Allowed (BB) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_on_balls)
Intentional Walks Allowed (IBB) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentional_base_on_balls)
Strikeouts (K) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikeout)
Hit Batsmen (HB) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hit_by_pitch) 0) Multiply BFP by .0074 to get the number of intentional walks allowed (dIBB).
1) Divide HB by BFP-IBB. Call this $HB. Then multiply $HB by BFP-dIBB. This number gives you the DIPS number of Hit Batsmen (dHB).
2) Divide (BB-IBB) by (BFP-IBB-HB), and call this number $BB. Multiply BFP by 0.0074, and call this dIBB.
2a) Then multiply $BB by (BFP-dIBB-dHB). Take this number and add IBB. This number is now the DIPS number of total walks allowed (dBB).
3) Divide K by (BFP-HB-BB) and call this number $K. Remember this number for later. 3a) Multiply $K by (BFP-dBB-dHB). This will give you the DIPS number of strikeouts (dK).
4) Divide HR by (BFP-HB-BB-K) and call this number $HR. Remember this number for later. 4a) Multiply $HR by (BFP-dBB-dHB-dK). This will give you the DIPS number of Home Runs (dHR).
5) Calculate the number of 'Balls Hit in the Field of Play'. This is BFP-dHR-dBB-dK-dHB.
6) Now we'll estimate hits per balls in the field of play ($H): 6a) Take the number .304396 and subtract .01083 if the pitcher is strictly a Knuckleball pitcher. If not keep the .304396 number. 6b) Take the result from the last step and add .002321 if the pitcher is left handed, if not keep the number from the above step. 6c) Take the $K figure from above and multiply it by .04782. Subtract this number from the number in 5b. 6d) Take the $HR figure from way above and multiply it by .08095. Subtract this number from the number in 5c. 6e) Whatever number you now have is your $H figure.
7) To get the projected number of Hits Allowed (DIPS 'Hits Allowed', or dH), multiply $H by the number of balls hit in the field of play (BHFP). 7a) Add this number to dHR. This number is the DIPS total of Hits Allowed (dH).
8) Take BFP-dBB-dHB-dK-dH and multiply that number by 1.048. Add dK to that number. Take that number and divide by 3. This is the DIPS total of Innings Pitched (dIP).
9) Sum the following products:
(dH-dHR)*.49674dHR*1.294375(dBB-dIBB)*.3325dIBB*.0864336dK*(-.084691)dHB*.3077(BFP-dHB-dBB-dK-dH)*(-.082927) The sum of all of these is the DIPS total of earned runs (dER).
10) Calculate ERA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average) as you normally would. (9*dER)/dIP. This is the DIPS ERA (dERA).

ochre
04-17-2007, 01:49 AM
Of course that was all better memorialized by Freak Nasty in his hit single "Da' Dip".
http://www.vh1.com/shared/media/images/amg_covers/200/drh000/h075/h07508dwslv.jpg

RFS62
04-17-2007, 09:00 AM
Awesome stuff, Cyclone.

Cyclone792
04-17-2007, 05:40 PM
Two questions, Cyclone:

1. How is DER determined?

2. Would you mind giving up your life for a while so you can do this for every team in the Central? Thanks.

It looks like the definition that ochre gave you was DIPS ERA, which is different from DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio). But ochre did provide some very good information regardless so that's always a good thing!

Anyhow, defensive efficiency ratio is a team defensive stat used to measure the effectiveness of an overall team's defense to turn batted balls into outs. The only definition I've been able to find is located on the Hardball Times Glossary (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/) page. That definition reads as follows ...


Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teamsí fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls.

Now in the DER figures I've posted in my charts above, I've made a slight adjustment in the formula itself, and that is I eliminated errors from the formula. The reason is because the errors included in the formula are only errors on batted balls, and unfortunately I'm unable to see every game. What happens is it becomes very difficult to differentiate errors based on only a boxscore description if I didn't see the play myself. To account for that, I just made it simple and cut the errors out of the formula altogether. Since errors comprise of a very small percentage of a team's overall fielding chances, and since most teams have a similar number of errors each season, it hasn't been much of an issue.

Now MLB.com has a page (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=3&timeFrame=1&Submit=Submit&c_id=mlb&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&sortByStat=DER) where you're able to view all 30 MLB teams' DER and sort by best/worst. I have no idea what exact formula they use, but after 13 games their DER figures match mine. It's possible they may have just eliminated errors too. An added benefit is each team's errors and fielding percentage is also included in that same stat set.

Now as to your second question, I'll have to politely decline. ;)

But you're in some luck since it seems that Baseball Reference is finally updating most of their content on a daily basis. For example, now you can go to the 2007 National League (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL_2007.shtml) index page and easily be able to see some basic stats for all NL teams, such as runs scored/allowed per game, team ERA, team BA/OBP/SLG, etc.

RedsManRick
04-17-2007, 06:56 PM
Loved the thread last year, looking forward to it this year. Thanks Jason. (Happy B-Day tomorrow, BTW)

Cyclone792
05-01-2007, 01:26 PM
Two more weeks are in the books. How we lookin'? Let's find out, first with some offensive statistics ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2005 NL 4.45 .262 .330 .414 .744 100 11.83 38.50 20.89 12.73 48.38 5.88

2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2006 NL 4.76 .265 .334 .427 .761 100 11.67 35.35 20.77 12.19 49.24 5.76

2007 Reds 4.36 .246 .319 .393 .712 90 11.00 35.96 28.33 14.61 49.21 5.81
2007 NL 4.42 .258 .332 .400 .732 100 --- --- --- --- --- --


R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2007 Reds 4.36 .246 .319 .393 .712 90 11.00 35.96 28.33 14.61 49.21 5.81


Thru Date R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

04/15/07 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
04/30/07 4.36 .246 .319 .393 .712 90 11.00 35.96 28.33 14.61 49.21 5.81


Splits R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

Apr 1-15 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 --- 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
Apr 16-30 5.08 .264 .322 .435 .756 --- 14.09 30.81 24.65 12.33 61.63 6.32

For the most part, the Reds offense came alive during the last two weeks, though the sample was aided quite a bit by the last two games during this past Pirates series. Still, it's encouraging to see the rise in extra base hits by Reds hitters: they slugged .435 during the second half of April compared to only .344 during the first half. Home runs were up, doubles were up, OPS was up, double plays were down, and runs were up to just over five runs per game.

The only downside? A significant drop in walks for the offense, and the team's on-base percentage is showing that drop. Reds hitters got on-base at a .322 clip during the final two weeks of April, and the team's seasonal on-base percentage of .319 is 13 points lower than the NL's league average of .332. Hopefully the Reds offense will be able to get their walk rate back up a bit while maintaining their recent surge in power. For the Reds to be able to score enough runs to make a run at the NL Central title, they're likely going to have to get on-base at a .330 or higher clip while maintaining a slugging percentage at a .430 or higher clip.

Now for the pitching and defense ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2005 NL 4.45 4.22 4.27 100 1.02 6.57 3.29 1.99 1.89 .708 .300

2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2006 NL 4.76 4.49 4.39 100 1.12 6.71 3.39 1.98 1.91 .705 .303

2007 Reds 4.36 3.84 3.47 111 0.73 7.03 2.22 3.16 2.30 .700 .308
2007 NL 4.42 3.98 4.13 100 0.85 6.60 3.55 1.86 ---- --- ---


R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2007 Reds 4.36 3.84 3.47 111 0.73 7.03 2.22 3.16 2.30 .700 .308


Thru Date R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

04/15/07 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
04/30/07 4.36 3.84 3.47 111 0.73 7.03 2.22 3.16 2.30 .700 .308


Splits R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

Apr 1-15 3.42 3.01 3.45 --- 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
Apr 16-30 5.23 4.62 3.49 --- 0.70 6.50 2.03 3.19 2.74 .693 .315

There's still plenty of good news surrounding the pitching staff, and it continues to outpace the NL league averages in just about every defense independent category (i.e. strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate), though their strikeout rate is dropping and that may be a possible cause for concern. As can be seen by the April 16th-30th splits above, the Reds' pitcher's strikeout rate dipped by a significant margin from 7.61 all the way down to 6.50. Throughout the collective season, Reds pitchers have still struck out seven batters per nine innings, but the future success of the pitching staff may rely heavily upon where that K/9 figure goes from here.

What's remarkable though, is even while playing in GABP, the team's home run rate is still above average. As the weather continues to warm up and the team plays more games in GABP, we'll see if the pitching staff can continue to keep the ball in the yard at their current rate.

Finally, shaky defense and some bad luck stung the Reds quite a bit during the past two weeks. Notice their DIPS ERA remained strong at 3.49 since April 16th, but their actual ERA was considerably higher at 4.62. The team's collective BABIP soared to .315, and the team's DER dropped down to an abysmal .693. The Reds have also been allowing an alarming number of doubles - almost three doubles per game in the last two weeks - and the overall combination of everything has resulted in the pitching/defense allowing over five runs per game since the middle of April.

What we saw throughout the latter two weeks of April is in contrast to what we saw in the first two weeks of April in regards to defense and luck. The pitching staff pitched well during both stretches, but they were aided by great luck and decent defense during the first half of April. In the latter half, the pitching staff still pitched rather well, but bad defense and horrendous luck has allowed a great deal of runs to cross the plate for the opposition.

What's promising, however, is their DIPS ERA remained steady as a team: 3.45 during the first two weeks of April followed up by 3.49 during the final two weeks of April.

Now here's the starting and relief splits ...


Starting and Relief Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2005 Starters 5.38 4.93 1.56 6.07 2.95 2.06
2006 Starters 4.58 4.43 1.31 6.61 2.64 2.50
2007 Starters 3.55 3.25 0.56 6.76 1.80 3.75

2005 Relievers 4.75 4.44 1.05 5.87 3.34 1.75
2006 Relievers 4.44 4.74 1.36 6.44 3.40 1.89
2007 Relievers 4.57 4.19 1.14 7.71 3.29 2.35


Thru Date ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

04/15/07 Starters 3.54 3.25 1.06 7.66 2.00 3.82
04/30/07 Starters 3.55 3.19 0.56 6.76 1.80 3.75

04/15/07 Relievers 1.72 3.98 0.86 7.47 3.45 2.17
04/30/07 Relievers 4.57 4.19 1.14 7.71 3.29 2.35

Based upon what we've seen on the field, I don't think anybody's too surprised about these splits. The starting pitching continued to pitch phenomenal, but the bullpen had more than its share of problems. Reds' starters did strike out far less batters per nine innings - a drop from 7.66 to 6.76 - but they made up for that by rarely allowing a long ball and also walking fewer batters. The end result is they were as effective in the second half of April as they were in the first half.

The bullpen ... well it got rocked, though not necessarily as bad as it appeared while watching the games. Reds relievers did continue to strike batters out while walking fewer guys, but they gave up many more home runs in the second half of April and it seemed like every batted ball allowed by a Reds reliever found a hole and became a hit.

The bullpen won't be as bad as it was during the past two weeks, but it also won't be as good as it was during April's first two weeks. Throughout the season, we're probably looking at a DIPS ERA around the 4.00-4.25 mark for the bullpen under its current construction, though adding guys such as Salmon and tossing out guys such as Cormier should help prevent a few more runs.

Finally, game splits for Harang/Arroyo games and the rest of the rotation ...


Game Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2006 Arroyo/Harang 3.83 4.14 1.17 7.13 2.62 2.72
2007 Arroyo/Harang 4.13 3.44 0.66 7.59 2.81 2.70

2006 Other SP 5.04 4.80 1.42 6.13 3.11 1.97
2007 Other SP 3.62 3.49 0.78 6.61 1.78 3.72

The bullpen did a number on blowing games by various starters, but it's interesting to see games started by the 3-5 starters have almost an identical DIPS ERA as games started by Harang and Arroyo. It will definitely be interesting to see how long this season this trend can continue, though my guess is we'll start to see some separation in the next month or two between the two groups ... just hopefully not too much separation though.

Finally, the raw runs scored/allowed totals thus far ...

April 2-15 totals: 43 runs scored and 41 runs allowed in 12 games with an actual record of 7-5.
April 16-30 totals: 66 runs scored and 68 runs allowed in 13 games with an actual record of 5-8.

coachw513
05-01-2007, 02:35 PM
Great info as always...wow!! :beerme:

By the way, you mind going to a few more games???...small sample size and all, but you know...:thumbup:

Cyclone792
05-03-2007, 11:26 AM
By the way, you mind going to a few more games???...small sample size and all, but you know...:thumbup:

I'll be there on Friday night against the Rockies. I'll try whatever voodoo magic I may have in hopes of pulling out another Redlegs victory! :laugh:

Redsland
05-03-2007, 11:28 AM
If they're behind late, wear your hat inside out. That'll do the trick. :thumbup:

Cyclone792
05-16-2007, 01:25 PM
It's mid May already, and we've got another two weeks of data. Despite losses mounting in early May, the offense actually wasn't bad at all. The pitching, yea well ... we'll get to that in a minute ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2005 NL 4.45 .262 .330 .414 .744 100 11.83 38.50 20.89 12.73 48.38 5.88

2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2006 NL 4.76 .265 .334 .427 .761 100 11.67 35.35 20.77 12.19 49.24 5.76

2007 Reds 4.48 .253 .321 .419 .740 96 11.73 31.12 27.73 13.26 49.19 5.59
2007 NL 4.40 .257 .329 .400 .729 100 11.24 44.42 20.47 13.08 49.85 5.87


R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

2005 Reds 5.03 .261 .339 .446 .785 107 10.35 28.47 18.87 11.05 54.49 4.85
2006 Reds 4.62 .257 .336 .432 .768 95 10.25 29.01 21.64 12.11 51.61 5.28
2007 Reds 4.48 .253 .321 .419 .740 96 11.73 31.12 27.73 13.26 49.19 5.59


Thru Date R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

04/15/07 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 81 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
04/30/07 4.36 .246 .319 .393 .712 90 11.00 35.96 28.33 14.61 49.21 5.81
05/15/07 4.48 .253 .321 .419 .740 96 11.73 31.12 27.73 13.26 49.19 5.59


Splits R/G BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA/BB PA/HR PA/2B PA/EBH PA/GIDP PA/SO

Apr 1-15 3.58 .226 .316 .344 .660 --- 8.84 44.20 34.00 18.42 40.18 5.33
Apr 16-30 5.08 .264 .322 .435 .756 --- 14.09 30.81 24.65 12.33 61.63 6.32
May 1-15 4.67 .263 .324 .459 .783 --- 13.11 25.65 26.82 11.57 49.17 5.27

While the Reds only averaged 4.67 runs per game (which is 756 runs over a full 162 games so that's not bad), they did OPS .783 from May 1st to May 15th.

An influx of power was the primary fuel for the Reds' run scoring over the last two weeks as they hit a home run every 25.65 plate appearances, smacked an extra base hit every 11.57 plate appearances, and put up an overall slugging percentage of .459. If the Reds can maintain that type of power output throughout the season, the offense should hold up fairly well.

The downside is I'd still like to see Reds batters get on base a little bit more than they've done. They put up a .324 on-base percentage during the first two weeks of May, and that was good enough to push their seasonal on-base percentage up to .321. Still, they're getting on base slightly less often than the NL average of .329.

FWIW, the Reds have scored 179 runs in 40 games so far this season. Over a full 162 games, that projects out to 725 runs.

Now for the brutal section, the pitching and defense ...


Overall Team Totals

R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2005 NL 4.45 4.22 4.27 100 1.02 6.57 3.29 1.99 1.89 .708 .300

2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2006 NL 4.76 4.49 4.39 100 1.12 6.71 3.39 1.98 1.91 .705 .303

2007 Reds 4.65 4.21 3.72 102 0.71 6.69 2.90 2.30 2.12 .696 .314
2007 NL 4.40 4.01 4.13 100 0.87 6.58 3.44 1.91 1.89 --- .293


R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

2005 Reds 5.45 5.15 4.75 86 1.38 6.00 3.09 1.94 2.30 .691 .317
2006 Reds 4.94 4.53 4.53 106 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 .699 .310
2007 Reds 4.65 4.21 3.72 102 0.71 6.69 2.90 2.30 2.12 .696 .314


Thru Date R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

04/15/07 3.42 3.01 3.45 132 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
04/30/07 4.36 3.84 3.47 111 0.73 7.03 2.22 3.16 2.30 .700 .308
05/15/07 4.65 4.21 3.72 102 0.71 6.69 2.90 2.30 2.12 .696 .314


Splits R/G ERA dERA ERA+ HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

Apr 1-15 3.42 3.01 3.45 --- 0.75 7.61 2.42 3.14 1.84 .709 .300
Apr 16-30 5.23 4.62 3.49 --- 0.70 6.50 2.03 3.19 2.74 .693 .315
May 1-15 5.13 4.84 4.13 --- 0.67 6.11 4.03 1.52 1.81 .688 .323

I've bolded the very last segment, which split out the games from May 1st to May 15th, and this shows how ugly the pitching altogether became after seemingly very solid pitching throughout the month of April.

The Reds' DIPS ERA (dERA in the above chart) was more than a half run higher during the first two weeks in May than we saw in all of April. The massive culprit is an absolutely booming walk rate mixed in with a fading strikeout rate. Reds pitchers walked 4.03 batters per nine innings during the first two weeks in May; that's roughly twice as many walks than they allowed throughout April. Strikeout rates are also dropping off the cliff as Reds pitchers' K/9 sunk down to 6.11 over this previous two week stretch.

Check out their K/BB in May so far, a paltry 1.52. This was a pitching staff that put up K/BB numbers well over 3 in April, and in May they've just fallen apart.

Fortunately, Reds pitchers have remained stingy with the home run. However, if they start giving up more home runs without correcting their strikeout/walk issues, then it could potentially become even worse. Let's hope that doesn't happen.


Starting and Relief Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2005 Starters 5.38 4.93 1.56 6.07 2.95 2.06
2006 Starters 4.58 4.43 1.31 6.61 2.64 2.50
2007 Starters 4.14 3.42 0.58 6.52 2.34 2.78

2005 Relievers 4.75 4.44 1.05 5.87 3.34 1.75
2006 Relievers 4.44 4.74 1.36 6.44 3.40 1.89
2007 Relievers 4.39 4.45 1.01 7.09 4.22 1.68


Thru Date ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

04/15/07 Starters 3.54 3.25 1.06 7.66 2.00 3.82
04/30/07 Starters 3.55 3.19 0.56 6.76 1.80 3.75
05/15/07 Starters 4.14 3.42 0.58 6.52 2.34 2.78

04/15/07 Relievers 1.72 3.98 0.86 7.47 3.45 2.17
04/30/07 Relievers 4.57 4.19 1.14 7.71 3.29 2.35
05/15/07 Relievers 4.39 4.45 1.01 7.09 4.22 1.68

This is pretty self-explanatory right here. The Reds' bullpen started to collapse in mid April, and the collapse just continued well into May. Once again, the big culprit is walks; Reds relievers are walking 4.22 batters per nine innings. It becomes exceptionally difficult for a bullpen unit to be successful when they're issuing that many free passes.


Game Splits

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

2006 Arroyo/Harang 3.83 4.14 1.17 7.13 2.62 2.72
2007 Arroyo/Harang 3.91 3.55 0.59 7.34 3.26 2.25

2006 Other SP 5.04 4.80 1.42 6.13 3.11 1.97
2007 Other SP 4.44 3.85 0.79 6.20 2.64 2.35

As the season progresses, we're starting to see a bit more separation now in the type of quality pitching overall in games started by Harang/Arroyo compared to the rest of the rotation (Harang's nice start last night helped in this too). The 3-4-5 rotation slots pitched very well in April thanks to Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle, but they've struggled a bit recently. The Reds' DIPS ERA in games started by pitchers in the 3-4-5 slots is still 3.85 though, and if they can keep it under 4 then the rotation should hold up well for the most part.

Finally, the raw runs scored/allowed totals ...

April 2-15 totals: 43 runs scored and 41 runs allowed in 12 games with an actual record of 7-5.
April 16-30 totals: 66 runs scored and 68 runs allowed in 13 games with an actual record of 5-8.
May 1-15 totals: 70 runs scored and 77 runs allowed in 15 games with an actual record of 4-11.