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WVRedsFan
04-19-2007, 12:38 AM
Over the last five games, the bully has done the following:

IP H R ER BB SO
13 14 14 13 6 11

That makes the ERA a perfect 9.00. To be fair, if you take Coffey and Cormier out of the mix, the figures look like this:

IP H R ER BB SO
11 10 6 6 5 8

That's an ERA of 4.91. Ugh. Probably about what we've experienced over the last few years.

What happened? Misused by the manager? Poor choices by Pole and Narron on who to bring in?

BTW, Coffee's ERA since Monday is a sweet 21.33. Time to sit him until we have a huge lead.

Johnny Footstool
04-19-2007, 01:02 AM
In two weeks, the ERA will be down again. Then there will be another big blowup.

Ebb and flow.

BCubb2003
04-19-2007, 03:01 AM
A brief sad history of meltdowns:

Even in the recent past, when the bullpen was at its best with Graves, White, Williamson and Sullivan, it never had that 30-straight saves guy. It could go for a week without giving up a run, and everybody would start talking about what a great bullpen it was, but by the end of the week there'd be a meltdown. Then another scoreless streak would start.

Then it got to the point that in every game, one of the relievers would melt down, another would come in and bail out, and the offense would sometimes come back.

Then it got to the point last season (about the time of the trade) that every reliever would come in and melt down. It was amazing. Nobody could get through an inning without giving up a run. It's been a long struggle to climb up from that point.

UK Reds Fan
04-19-2007, 03:02 AM
If it was consistent among all of our BP options like it was last year around all star break, I'd be inclined to agree. But the vast majority of those numbers are Coffey's. Then you throw in Cormier's line tonight and that is about it as you pointed out.

We still have strong options at this point that aren't faltering very much compared to the average BP pitcher. Stanton is still perfect on season. Weathers very solid each outing. Cout gave us great performance this week. Santos outside of 1 outing very solid. Sarloos has maybe been most impressive out of pen of anyone.

So outside of just staying away from Coffey and Cormier is a waste as would be expected, we have options from both lefties and righties. Plus, we have Maj and Bray waiting in the wings at AAA that provide reasonable hope of improving over Coffey and Cormier's performance. Coffey may have options left to go to AAA to get it back together and Cormier can be DFA'd at any time. I am not too concerned over the pen like I was last year at All Star break. Everybody we thru out there for nearly 3 weeks was pounded terribly.

Ltlabner
04-19-2007, 07:16 AM
That's an ERA of 4.91. Ugh. Probably about what we've experienced over the last few years.

What happened? Misused by the manager? Poor choices by Pole and Narron on who to bring in?

BTW, Coffee's ERA since Monday is a sweet 21.33. Time to sit him until we have a huge lead.


I think, as Johnny Footstool mentioned, this is the normal ebb and flow of what we'll see from the bullpen. It went from absoutly horrable to mostly adequate which is a huge improvement, but still leaves us stuck at mostly adequate. It only follows that you'll have some good nights, bad nights (either overall or from an individual pitcher). I don't think it's anything more mysterious than that.

I would like to see Dick Pole making trips to the mound before an inning unravels completley. I've not seen many games since the 1st week, but I don't recall Dick making much effort to go out and talk to a pitcher who obviously is struggling before disaster ensues.

At this point, I don't think it's a good idea to bring Coffey in 3 days in a row. Narron does have a habit of riding the same horses too much. I had hoped Pole would be able to put a stop to that.

jojo
04-19-2007, 07:35 AM
What happened? Misused by the manager? Poor choices by Pole and Narron on who to bring in?

Narron isn't to blame for everything that goes wrong in the world... :cool:

The reality....you've got a decidely vanilla bullpen the largely pitches to contact and has it's best K arm disabled. When the balls are hit at people, they'll look great. when the balls aren't hit at people, fans will blame Narron. Bottom line, there's a little too much left to chance for this pen to be a strength for the Reds.


Basically, pardon the pun, but given his GB% and the fact that he has good control and the highest K/9 of the uninjured pen arms, Coffey is the cream of the Reds bullpen crop right now.

bucksfan2
04-19-2007, 08:29 AM
Narron isn't to blame for everything that goes wrong in the world... :cool:

The reality....you've got a decidely vanilla bullpen the largely pitches to contact and has it's best K arm disabled. When the balls are hit at people, they'll look great. when the balls aren't hit at people, fans will blame Narron. Bottom line, there's a little too much left to chance for this pen to be a strength for the Reds.


Basically, pardon the pun, but given his GB% and the fact that he has good control and the highest K/9 of the uninjured pen arms, Coffey is the cream of the Reds bullpen crop right now.

Coffey has been ineffective in his most recent close games. WHY do you run him out again in that situation again? Look at the astro's lineup. You have 2 good hitters (Lee and Berkman) an average one in Lamb and the rest are garbage. Last nigth Coffey hits the lead off guy which basically enables Houston to get the meat of their lineup up to face him in the 8th. On paper Coffey may look like your best optoin but in reality I hope he has options to get his game figured out in Louisville.

edabbs44
04-19-2007, 08:42 AM
Bottom line...overall, the bullpen isn't good. It's not just Coffey and Cormier. In a week or 2, those guys will be throwing well and Stanton and Santos (the relievers du jour) will be the new whipping boys.

The bullpen is not much better than the mess that was thrown together for 2006. The only major difference is that this one costs more.

WVRedsFan
04-19-2007, 08:43 AM
Coffey has been ineffective in his most recent close games. WHY do you run him out again in that situation again? Look at the astro's lineup. You have 2 good hitters (Lee and Berkman) an average one in Lamb and the rest are garbage. Last nigth Coffey hits the lead off guy which basically enables Houston to get the meat of their lineup up to face him in the 8th. On paper Coffey may look like your best optoin but in reality I hope he has options to get his game figured out in Louisville.

Of course, jojo is correct. The players failed to do their jobs, but it is the manager's job to make these decisions, and as it turn out, it was a bad one.. Unfortunately, this team cannot afford to continue to score 4 runs or less in a game. We just do not have the lights out bullpen to do this an win. Of course, if you take Coffey and Cormier out of the equation, and things look a lot brighter on that end, but to score two runs on the nemesis of the las few years, only scoringon the HR is ot going to get that part of the game done.

Ltlabner said it best. Pitching Coffey three days in a row mystifies me, and points out the main question which is why would you put guys into that situation when their history shows that failure is a distinct possibility? Especially with the better or at least possible better options that come with as many pitchers as we have. Johnny says it will be ebb and flow and he's probably correct, which doesn't make me feel much better about the bulpen.

BRM
04-19-2007, 09:31 AM
I don't know that I'd call the bullpen "mostly adequate". Unless "mostly adequate" essentially means a little below average to possibly average.

I agree with jojo. The bullpen is pretty vanilla. Full of mostly soft-tossing pitch to contact guys. There aren't many different looks coming out of the pen right now.

HokieRed
04-19-2007, 09:45 AM
No point in having Coffey on the club if you're not going to work him regularly. Same with Cormier. Coffey needs work; he should get it in AAA as either Majewski or Salmon comes to Cincinnati. It's very close to the point where somebody is going to have to decide to give Cormier his release. Anybody have any information on Bray's progress or possible date of return?

UK Reds Fan
04-19-2007, 10:34 AM
The point worth pondering isn't why Coffey got shelled/sucked...

It is why send Coffey out there 3 days in a row, when Sarloos is waiting to go and not to mention Stanton/Cout from left side. Also, most managers don't do this, but Weathers can pitch an inning besides just the 9th.

I could live with it a bit more if it was last year and you had Hammonds/White/Burns as your options, but we have more options to this point that appear to be decent.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2007, 11:15 AM
In two weeks, the ERA will be down again. Then there will be another big blowup.

Ebb and flow.

Well, yes, that's the course of everything. But don't kid yourself, this is a crummy bullpen; it will likely stay down more than up, unless substantive changes are made.

BRM
04-19-2007, 11:16 AM
Well, yes, that's the course of everything. But don't kid yourself, this is a crummy bullpen; it will likely stay down more than up, unless substantive changes are made.

A lot of time and effort was spent building this bullpen too. Maybe it needs a little more.

flyer85
04-19-2007, 11:17 AM
What happened? Misused by the manager? Poor choices by Pole and Narron on who to bring in?the simple answer is that the talent level is lacking and they just aren't very good as a group.

membengal
04-19-2007, 11:25 AM
This really isn't that hard. From a soup of spare parts, some have emerged that I thought were being used in a way that made sense. Then, last night happens, and I go back to confused.

What I think SHOULD be the general state of operations in the bullpen:

Weathers as closer
Saarloos/Stanton set-up men

Everyone else to bridge the gap to those three. The match-ups in the 6th and 7th innings should dictate who gets used and when.

I simply do not understand why Coffey was in his third game in a row last night in a high leverage situation when Saarloos was rested and ready to go. Really mind-boggling. Plus, if Narron hadn't blown two innings out on Stanton Tuesday night, he would have had him for the 8th inning when he went with Cormier.

If Narron will commit to those three in the set-up/closer roles, everything else will fall together and make much more sense. That's where Narron frustrated me last night...

flyer85
04-19-2007, 11:32 AM
Want to be an effective endgame pitcher?

You need to have an above average fastball combined(unless the offspeed pitch is exceedingly nasty) with a nasty off speed pitch. There is no current Reds reliever who qualifies on that level. The have a couple who do. Namely Bray(when he stays on top of slider, which he only did about half the time last year) and Burton. If the Reds can transform the pen, those two will be the key.

The above is why I have always liked Wuertz so much. His slider is nasty.

REDREAD
04-19-2007, 11:38 AM
Bottom line...overall, the bullpen isn't good. It's not just Coffey and Cormier. In a week or 2, those guys will be throwing well and Stanton and Santos (the relievers du jour) will be the new whipping boys.

The bullpen is not much better than the mess that was thrown together for 2006. The only major difference is that this one costs more.

I was really worried about the pen this year as well. I still am.

Coffey will rebound. But as a young guy, he's going to have his ups and downs. Most young players do.

Sarloos and Santos have been a boost this year, but they can't carry the entire load by themselves. It's also questionable whether Santos can maintain this performance.

Weathers as a closer is a testament to how shaky the pen is. I remember when we cut Weathers midseason about 9 or 10 years ago. Now he's our closer. He's likely to go through a bad spell as well.

That's why I said in another thread a couple days ago that once again, the bullpen will be a big factor in whether we can compete in this mediocre division or not.

It's frustrating to see Wayne sign Stanton and Weathers for close to the same money that good relievers like Chad Bradford got.

flyer85
04-19-2007, 11:43 AM
Weathers as a closer is a testament to how shaky the pen is. I remember when we cut Weathers midseason about 9 or 10 years ago. Now he's our closer. He's likely to go through a bad spell as well.It's only a matter of time, his fastball is below average and his slider is nothing special. The fact he has decent command is the only thing keeping his head above water.

Want to be consistently effective late game? You had better miss bats.

redsfan4445
04-19-2007, 09:23 PM
unbeliveable!!.. the bullpen is going to cost this team the playoffs if this keeps up.. time to make some changes...

captainmorgan07
04-19-2007, 09:23 PM
amen get me some young fresh arms burton can't come off the DL fast enough

justincredible
04-19-2007, 09:23 PM
They certainly must hate Arroyo.

OldRed1966
04-19-2007, 09:26 PM
This team needs a change at manager. Why pull Arroyo after only 96 pitches, he can go 115-120 with no problems at all.

butlerbulldogs
04-19-2007, 09:28 PM
i agree w/ oldred, after the implosion of the bullpen last night, at least let arroyo go the eighth

jamess697
04-19-2007, 09:41 PM
My thing is that Harang and Arroyo led the league in innings pitched last year and now they can only throw a 100 pitches, this is riduculos! This is the first time that I have said this on this site, but here it goes, FIRE NARRON!

UC_Ken
04-19-2007, 09:46 PM
My thing is that Harang and Arroyo led the league in innings pitched last year and now they can only throw a 100 pitches, this is riduculos! This is the first time that I have said this on this site, but here it goes, FIRE NARRON!
AMEN

fearofpopvol1
04-19-2007, 09:55 PM
I question Narron and his moves as much as the next guy, but I don't really fault him for this. We don't know for sure whether or not Bronson said he was tired. He may have told Narron he was done.

What I do blame is this putrid bullpen. That's 3 losses in 4 nights all by the bullpen. For those keeping score, that's 10 runs the bullpen has given up in 2 innings (the 8th inning at that) over the last 2 nights.

jesusfan
04-19-2007, 09:58 PM
Cormier sucks, Coutlangus who?, Weathers is lucky, Coffee has a million dollar arm and a 2 cent head, Stanton, Saarloos and Santos are the only ones I even feel good about right now, but that will change too in a couple weeks...

flyer85
04-19-2007, 09:59 PM
Rinse and Repeat

flyer85
04-19-2007, 10:02 PM
Hope they have an extra pair of underwear

RedFanAlways1966
04-19-2007, 10:03 PM
The bullpen of late requires the avid follower to use Excel to figure their stats. However, one big time error (by one who many experts think is the best fielding SS in MLB) cost the team too. If they get an out on that grounder, the REDS might have gone into the 9th with the lead. Never know how it pans out from there, but let the truth be stated.

Still doesn't change the fact that the bullpen has been horrid. :thumbdown

BuckeyeRedleg
04-19-2007, 10:06 PM
Run it into the ground, Wayne. Don't worry, you can do it. Why?

15,825
14,001
12,521
14,492
13,772
14,222

Nobody (but this board) cares anymore.

KYRed
04-19-2007, 10:06 PM
Monday, last night, and tonight are part of the reason there are only 14,000 fans there on weeknights.

Is it the whole reason? Certainly not. But continually choking away game after game leaves fans disgusted and doesn't encourage lukewarm fans to come see the team for the first time or two this season.

flyer85
04-19-2007, 10:07 PM
However, one big time error (by one who many experts think is the best fielding SS in MLB) cost the team too. There is a reason that each of the last two years teams have simply let him walk.

WVRedsFan
04-19-2007, 10:12 PM
There is a reason that each of the last two years teams have simply let him walk.

And we give him beaucoups money to come here. Figures.

Of course, being able to miss bats is an important things these relievers havn't mastered either. Stanton got a bad shake out of the whole thing tonight, but Weathers and the rest are shaky. The first few games, they were shaky but lucky. Lately they've been shaky bad. Shaky is shaky. We need some solid relievers but instead we trade position players for shaky relievers (and yes I mean the missing Magic and Bray).

jfar23
04-19-2007, 10:12 PM
Although Coffey has been bad lately he's probably got the best arm in the pen. I'd keep him up and see if he can work it out. Cormier on the other hand wishes he was Eric Milton.

RedFanAlways1966
04-19-2007, 10:12 PM
Run it into the ground, Wayne. Don't worry, you can do it. Why?

15,825
14,001
12,521
14,492
13,772
14,222

Nobody (but this board) cares anymore.

You know what is ironic? The REDS were in 1st place when those first four games listed above were played. Is the above indicative of the team/GM and it's W-L record or the fanbase?

guttle11
04-19-2007, 10:13 PM
Ga-ry Ma-jew-ski *clap clap clap-clap-clap*

:runawaycr

paintmered
04-19-2007, 10:13 PM
You know what is ironic? The REDS were in 1st place when those first four games listed above were played. Is the above indicative of the team/GM and it's W-L record or the fanbase?

I'd say it was indicative of multiple consecutive losing seasons.

KoryMac5
04-19-2007, 10:13 PM
There is a reason that each of the last two years teams have simply let him walk.

We have deeper problems than 1 error made by the shortstop, who up to this point has played really well in the field and at the plate.

flyer85
04-19-2007, 10:15 PM
We have deeper problems than 1 error made by the shortstop, who up to this point has played really well in the field and at the plate.He is a poor hitter, always has been and likely always will be. He's Castro with some pop.

RedFanAlways1966
04-19-2007, 10:15 PM
We have deeper problems than 1 error made by the shortstop, who up to this point has played really well in the field and at the plate.

Some guy named Josh? ;)

Degenerate39
04-19-2007, 10:15 PM
I don't care what everyone says Majewski is not the answer to our problems.

flyer85
04-19-2007, 10:17 PM
I don't care what everyone says Majewski is not the answer to our problems.If healthy he is better than the likes of Cormier/Weathers/Stanton, but he is not the answer to the problems. The answer is pitching in AAA for the Giants, too bad they didn't draft him.

jojo
04-19-2007, 10:17 PM
I don't care what everyone says Majewski is not the answer to our problems.

Majewski is like dolloping another scoop of vanilla onto the cone and hoping it will add flavor... this bullpen needs dipped in chocolate dang it.... :cool:

paintmered
04-19-2007, 10:18 PM
I don't care what everyone says Majewski is not the answer to our problems.

He's going to have to be. All we have are square pegs to fit in round holes.

jojo
04-19-2007, 10:22 PM
If the reds are in the thick of things in July, i'd consider bullpen stints for arms like Bailey and Cueto etc.... a few months in the pen would in no way hurt their development as starters....

mth123
04-19-2007, 10:24 PM
If the reds are in the thick of things in July, i'd consider bullpen stints for arms like Bailey and Cueto etc.... a few months in the pen would in no way hurt their development as starters....

I think at this point it would. They haven't built up to a major league starters load. They need to this year.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2007, 10:25 PM
No one listened to FCB in the offseason. Ignore FCB at your own risk.

:beerme:

mth123
04-19-2007, 10:28 PM
No one listened to FCB in the offseason. Ignore FCB at your own risk.

:beerme:

If I recall, most of the board was complaining about the pen. A few were defending the Geezers, but most agreed with you.

guttle11
04-19-2007, 10:29 PM
No one listened to FCB in the offseason. Ignore FCB at your own risk.

:beerme:


What do Reyes and Wainwright have to do with it? :mooner:

I know they lived on the edge for a while, but it's been 2 games. I'm not hitting the button just yet.

Mutaman
04-19-2007, 10:29 PM
i listened to you. I just hoped you were wrong.

1. Every year this team comes north with weathers listed as the closer. every year I figure they know something i don't know. Every year I'm wrong, they don't.

2. Nothings worse than blowing a game yo've got won. Thats why the kearns trade didn't bother me.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2007, 10:35 PM
No one listened to FCB in the offseason. Ignore FCB at your own risk.

:beerme:

That's not true, I did and to the stats guys that said the Reds did not have the offense to stay up with the crowd.

Though I think that we ought to tar and feather the optimist. Where's GAC? :laugh:

Cyclone792
04-19-2007, 10:37 PM
When a mediocre bullpen is lucky for any period of time (read: the first two weeks), then it oftentimes appears to be unhittable. When a mediocre bullpen is unlucky for any period of time (read: the last few days), then it oftentimes appears to be a total collection of useless clutter.

In reality, the bullpen isn't unhittable, but it's not a total collection of useless clutter (some pieces are, such as Rheal Cormier, but not all, such as Todd Coffey). But the bullpen is squarely mediocre - probably currently in the realm of below average with Bray out - and mediocre bullpens often blow games during bouts of zero luck. The bullpen is what it is, and when luck isn't a factor, it's probably average at best ... and that's being kind about it.

None of this is really any surprise, and it's shocking to me to see others shocked about any of this.

jojo
04-19-2007, 10:37 PM
I think at this point it would. They haven't built up to a major league starters load. They need to this year.

By mid July both could have over 100 innings... They dont need to log 160 innings to be ready for the majors...

jojo
04-19-2007, 10:39 PM
When a mediocre bullpen is lucky for any period of time (read: the first two weeks), then it oftentimes appears to be unhittable. When a mediocre bullpen is unlucky for any period of time (read: the last few days), then it oftentimes appears to be a total collection of useless clutter.

In reality, the bullpen isn't unhittable, but it's not a total collection of useless clutter (some pieces are, such as Rheal Cormier, but not all, such as Todd Coffey). But the bullpen is squarely mediocre - probably currently in the realm of below average with Bray out - and mediocre bullpens often blow games during bouts of zero luck. The bullpen is what it is, and when luck isn't a factor, it's probably average at best ... and that's being kind about it.

None of this is really any surprise, and it's shocking to me to see others shocked about any of this.


You're kinda preaching to the choir for alot of us....

mth123
04-19-2007, 10:40 PM
MOst Bailey has ever pitched is 140 Innings. I don't put him in the rotation until he's worked his way up. If he moves to the bullpen, he'll need to use next year to stretch out further.

I've said many times its about 2009. I don't mess that up.

mth123
04-19-2007, 10:43 PM
None of this is really any surprise, and it's shocking to me to see others shocked about any of this.

This is actually the biggest surprise for me as well.

I think a little success in cold weather made everyone lose perspective as to what the team really has assembled.

Patrick Bateman
04-19-2007, 10:45 PM
When a mediocre bullpen is lucky for any period of time (read: the first two weeks), then it oftentimes appears to be unhittable. When a mediocre bullpen is unlucky for any period of time (read: the last few days), then it oftentimes appears to be a total collection of useless clutter.

In reality, the bullpen isn't unhittable, but it's not a total collection of useless clutter (some pieces are, such as Rheal Cormier, but not all, such as Todd Coffey). But the bullpen is squarely mediocre - probably currently in the realm of below average with Bray out - and mediocre bullpens often blow games during bouts of zero luck. The bullpen is what it is, and when luck isn't a factor, it's probably average at best ... and that's being kind about it.

None of this is really any surprise, and it's shocking to me to see others shocked about any of this.


Excellent post.

There is nobody in the pen that can consistently blow the ball by people which makes the bullpen extremely luck dependent. They will have their good days and bad, and right now, this is the bad.

Even today they didn't 'deserve' their outcome. A lot of balls found holes, the error, and timely hitting sunk us in the 8th. They didn't pitch very good, but hardly bad enough to give up 5 runs. And the same can be said at the beginning of the year when they didn't pitch great enough to 'deserve' tons of shutout innings, but when luck is constantly thrown into play rather than actual skills, the results will fluctuate a lot.

paintmered
04-19-2007, 10:47 PM
Burton is due to come off the 15 day DL soon. He has a power arm.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-19-2007, 10:47 PM
You know what is ironic? The REDS were in 1st place when those first four games listed above were played. Is the above indicative of the team/GM and it's W-L record or the fanbase?

The fans (and most on this board) know what they got with this team.

More of the same.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2007, 10:54 PM
If I recall, most of the board was complaining about the pen. A few were defending the Geezers, but most agreed with you.

Most folks saw the bullpen as average, passable. Decent even. But it's not; it's bad.

It'll be well into the bottom third of MLB bullpens and stay there unless there's a total paradigm shift.

And I don't put any faith in Maj or Bray or Burton. I'm sorry, they just don't bring the kind of help this team needs.

jojo
04-19-2007, 10:56 PM
MOst Bailey has ever pitched is 140 Innings. I don't put him in the rotation until he's worked his way up. If he moves to the bullpen, he'll need to use next year to stretch out further.

I've said many times its about 2009. I don't mess that up.

8 weeks in the pen really isn't going to mess with his development as a starter at this point unless he's simply not ready for major league hitters period...

Verlander had never logged 120 innings in single season before his callup... Felix Hernandez didn't even log 150 innngs a single season (averaged barely 100 a season in the minors). Cole Hamels never logged 100 innings in a single season in the minors. These were just the first three I looked up....

It's more important to learn in-game stamina (i.e. how to pace yourself over 9 innings) and how to adjust to seeing hitters a second and third time through the lineup etc than it is to mimick 200 innings... The former things wont be compromised by a late summer callup to the pen...

edabbs44
04-19-2007, 10:57 PM
The scariest part is yet to come...when the rotation shows its true colors.

LincolnparkRed
04-19-2007, 10:58 PM
And I don't put any faith in Maj or Bray or Burton. I'm sorry, they just don't bring the kind of help this team needs.

The problem is the 2/3rds of MLB is looking for bullpen help at any given moment. Even the Yankees and Red Sox, the two teams that will spend the most still search for guys to get the ball to the closer.

edabbs44
04-19-2007, 11:07 PM
The problem is the 2/3rds of MLB is looking for bullpen help at any given moment. Even the Yankees and Red Sox, the two teams that will spend the most still search for guys to get the ball to the closer.

Not sure that has anything to do with the Reds situation...when your GM spends most of the past year "rebuilding" the bullpen at the expense of your rotation and lineup, you expect something more than the disaster he has thrown together. The supposed strength of the team is now one of many achilles heels.

Sure the Sox and Yanks could use some BP help. But they at least have the starters and lineups to help hide the BP deficiencies a little. What does Cincy have?

I'm telling you...if they throw this draft away on relievers, "signable" players and defensive wizards I might go catatonic. It might be worse than when the Falcons traded up for Vick. I still have nightmares.

mth123
04-19-2007, 11:12 PM
8 weeks in the pen really isn't going to mess with his development as a starter at this point unless he's simply not ready for major league hitters period...

Verlander had never logged 120 innings in single season before his callup... Felix Hernandez didn't even log 150 innngs a single season (averaged barely 100 a season in the minors). Cole Hamels never logged 100 innings in a single season in the minors. These were just the first three I looked up....

It's more important to learn in-game stamina (i.e. how to pace yourself over 9 innings) and how to adjust to seeing hitters a second and third time through the lineup etc than it is to mimick 200 innings... The former things wont be compromised by a late summer callup to the pen...

I'm concerned that jumping to a major league load from 140 innings to say 190 is too much at age 21. Its not about effectiveness, its about health.

Felix might be exhibit A. He made a huge inning jump from 2003 to 2004. Mark Prior (big jump from 2002 to 2003) and Kerry Wood (a big jump from 2001 to 2002) say hello as well.

There really isn't evidence (that I'm aware of) that directly links too big a jump in innings from one season to the next during formative years as the genesis of arm problems in the future, but I don't think you should take the chance. The current school of thought says don't jump more than 30 innings from one season to the next. I want Bailey to be able to pitch 220 innings in 2009. That means a side trip to the pen now leaves him short in 2009 (or leaves him making too big of a jump). 2009 is when the team can be good, I don't mess with that for the illusion of 2007.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2007, 11:14 PM
The scariest part is yet to come...when the rotation shows its true colors.

You caught your first whiff of Belisle the other night....

edabbs44
04-19-2007, 11:16 PM
You caught your first whiff of Belisle the other night....

I am actually talking about my boy Lohse and whoever else gets thrown out there. He got everyone's hearts with the gem the other day. That's his modus operandi...make 'em all think he's turned the corner, then WHAM! 3 innings, 8 hits, 6 runs smacks you in the face.

Cyclone792
04-19-2007, 11:17 PM
The scariest part is yet to come...when the rotation shows its true colors.

That could very well happen in the next three days too. There's obviously no guarantees that it will, but the Reds are sending out #'s 3-5 against the Phillies. I like Matt Belisle, and I think he can be an average MLB starting pitcher. But even average MLB starting pitchers can have some rough spots, especially against solid lineups. Kyle Lohse is still a huge question mark, and we all know how much of a disaster Eric Milton will always be.

The Phillies have some guys that can create a truckload of runs too. Rollins is off to a hot start, and he's always been a danger on the bases. Then the Phils' 3/4/5 combination of Utley, Howard, and Burrell is a terror to deal with each time through the lineup.

The Phillies have been awful this season, but it's strictly due to their pitching. They're still hitting the ball this season same as they were last season. I'm hoping the Reds can salvage the homestand a bit by taking two of three, but on the flip side these next three games have the potential to be a complete disaster.


The problem is the 2/3rds of MLB is looking for bullpen help at any given moment. Even the Yankees and Red Sox, the two teams that will spend the most still search for guys to get the ball to the closer.

The reason 2/3 of MLB is always looking for bullpen help is because 2/3 of MLB (or more) are not fielding "playoff caliber" bullpens. The type of playoff caliber bullpen I'd prefer to see is one with a relief ace - I refuse to use the term "closer" anymore - a relief ace's right hand man, and three to four pretty good middle relievers that each should throw up a 4ish ERA each season.

The Reds have the final piece to that puzzle with a couple guys that should throw up a 4ish ERA, but they're clearly lacking a relief ace, and really Todd Coffey is the only guy I see with the potential to jump up to be a relief ace's right hand man. He could very well turn into one, but he's not quite there yet.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2007, 11:17 PM
I am actually talking about my boy Lohse and whoever else gets thrown out there. He got everyone's hearts with the gem the other day. That's his modus operandi...make 'em all think he's turned the corner, then WHAM! 3 innings, 8 hits, 6 runs smacks you in the face.

Oh sure, you'll be able to throw Lohse on the fire before long, but I'm just tallying the putrefaction so far.

Kc61
04-20-2007, 12:03 AM
Excellent post.

There is nobody in the pen that can consistently blow the ball by people which makes the bullpen extremely luck dependent. They will have their good days and bad, and right now, this is the bad.

Even today they didn't 'deserve' their outcome. A lot of balls found holes, the error, and timely hitting sunk us in the 8th. They didn't pitch very good, but hardly bad enough to give up 5 runs. And the same can be said at the beginning of the year when they didn't pitch great enough to 'deserve' tons of shutout innings, but when luck is constantly thrown into play rather than actual skills, the results will fluctuate a lot.

Very good analysis. Need some strikeout guys in the pen. Having said that, tonight, in the 8th, the only hard hit ball was off Weathers. The error hurt a lot. A lot of seeing eye hits, particularly the grounder by Berkman.

The pen certainly hasn't been good, but is not the only culprit. The team didn't hit for the whole last road trip. They've made a lot of errors in the last several games. The fifth starter situation (possibly the third and fourth starters as well) is, well, questionable.

The bottom line is that the Reds are not excellent in any phase of the game and they don't play winning baseball. It's the overall talent level. And the management hasn't been able to coax winning baseball out of this group.

Johnny Footstool
04-20-2007, 12:24 AM
Well, yes, that's the course of everything. But don't kid yourself, this is a crummy bullpen; it will likely stay down more than up, unless substantive changes are made.

Sure. Any bullpen that lacks strikeout power is doomed for mediocrity or worse. But I don't think the bullpen is either as good as it was the first couple of weeks or as bad as it has been recently.

jojo
04-20-2007, 05:22 AM
Felix might be exhibit A. He made a huge inning jump from 2003 to 2004. Mark Prior (big jump from 2002 to 2003) and Kerry Wood (a big jump from 2001 to 2002) say hello as well.

You can't make this implication with conviction....at least Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson don't think so.....

RedFanAlways1966
04-20-2007, 07:40 AM
The fans (and most on this board) know what they got with this team.

More of the same.

And what is really scary is this board as a whole predicted 81.74 wins for this team. Not me (74 wins), but just sayin'. :devil:

mth123
04-20-2007, 08:00 AM
You can't make this implication with conviction....at least Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson don't think so.....

Don't need conviction, just caution. If there is any theory at all that stepping up innings too quickly or sporadically could cause damage that shows later after a little mileage, then I stay on the methodical approach and take no chances. At least not with Bailey.

I know lots of guys have started out in the pen to get their feet wet, but I want the innings built to a starter level first. Bailey is 21 not 24 and that makes a big difference in physical maturity of the structure in some cases. It may not in his case, but I wouldn't take the risk.

He could also get hurt with everything being done right, but I don't think fate should be tempted.

mth123
04-20-2007, 08:02 AM
And what is really scary is this board as a whole predicted 81.74 wins for this team. Not me (74 wins), but just sayin'. :devil:

I was the low man at 69 Wins. The pen was a big reason, but I expect better from Coffey down the road.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-20-2007, 09:01 AM
And what is really scary is this board as a whole predicted 81.74 wins for this team. Not me (74 wins), but just sayin'. :devil:

I guessed 74 wins as well.

You and I are two of the culprits that dragged the Reds predicted wins down. :)

Eric_Davis
04-20-2007, 07:00 PM
Let's get through April or May. Then see what things look like.