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View Full Version : Pinto's 2006 Probablistic Model of Range



RedsManRick
04-20-2007, 04:09 PM
in a handy dandy excel spreadsheet!

Click here to download! (http://beyondtheboxscore.com/images/admin/Probabilistic_Model_of_Range_2006___Out_Ratio.xls)

Look at Freel. Look at Junior. Yup.

muethibp
04-20-2007, 04:27 PM
Felipe Lopez isn't looking so hot...

muethibp
04-20-2007, 04:28 PM
According to this we had the worst LF and CF in the game last year.

Johnny Footstool
04-20-2007, 05:59 PM
Alex Gonzalez looks only slightly above average in this methodology.

Redsland
04-21-2007, 11:15 AM
That's all well and good, but didn't Terry Francona say Gonzalez was the most slightly above average shortstop he'd ever seen?

:)

RedsManRick
04-21-2007, 12:04 PM
Remember, with Pinto's system, you get extra penalized for botching an easy play, just as you get extra credit for making that really difficult play. A handful of errors on easy plays is a good way to keep you from being truly elite by his metric.

Also, one of the major problems with any defensive metric is sample size. The model for this spreadsheet is based only on 2006 data. Even give 600 chances in the field, you aren't going to get a perfect representation for a given player. Just like Dunn's 2006 OPS isn't reflective of his true ability.