savafan
04-20-2007, 08:04 PM
Here are some examples based on stats.
Example A:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
19 2 2 12 5 2 2 4 0 41.7 33 15 14 2 28 30 1 2 183 1 1 3.02 4.08 135 1.464
20 2 4 16 10 0 0 1 0 58.7 66 37 32 10 29 30 0 1 261 0 2 4.91 3.96 81 1.619
21 5 4 34 13 2 0 12 0 104.3 83 49 45 14 51 122 2 5 444 1 0 3.88 4.15 107 1.284
22 11 11 40 26 5 0 7 1 158.7 132 89 79 19 105 131 1 17 714 6 0 4.48 4.11 92 1.494
23 8 6 35 23 6 1 6 2 153.3 136 74 69 23 92 173 0 5 679 4 1 4.05 4.22 104 1.487
24 8 13 37 26 7 2 7 1 175.0 133 83 76 20 100 197 1 9 753 6 0 3.91 3.99 102 1.331
Example B:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
20 2 4 6 5 1 0 1 0 31.0 44 20 19 3 11 20 1 2 144 2 0 5.52 4.06 74 1.774
21 6 14 30 27 1 1 2 0 155.7 181 111 97 17 74 101 4 4 701 13 7 5.61 4.29 77 1.638
Example C:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 2 7 12 12 0 0 0 0 64.0 74 40 39 10 33 37 2 2 297 4 1 5.48 3.70 67 1.672
Example D:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
24 3 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 26.0 23 8 7 3 7 25 0 3 109 0 0 2.42 3.59 148 1.154
25 7 13 29 28 2 0 1 0 160.7 147 100 86 13 96 130 3 7 715 2 7 4.82 3.95 82 1.512
Example E:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 2 4 9 9 0 0 0 0 50.3 55 34 31 5 33 20 3 1 238 4 1 5.54 4.37 79 1.748
22 7 17 34 34 1 0 0 0 195.3 201 111 99 12 63 84 8 2 844 7 2 4.56 3.70 81 1.352
Example F:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 6 7 17 17 0 0 0 0 97.7 106 54 49 11 33 90 3 4 430 4 1 4.52 3.83 85 1.423
22 12 11 32 32 0 0 0 0 194.7 173 94 89 33 82 156 6 2 827 3 0 4.11 3.94 96 1.310
Example G:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
22 11 10 25 25 1 1 0 0 151.3 166 89 80 23 48 94 5 3 653 6 0 4.76 4.41 93 1.414 AS
23 11 16 34 34 1 0 0 0 216.7 237 105 100 21 70 170 10 9 934 10 0 4.15 3.99 96 1.417
24 11 13 34 34 1 0 0 0 220.7 232 122 109 29 43 157 6 7 931 2 0 4.45 4.37 98 1.246
Example H:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
20 6 19 33 28 0 0 0 0 162.0 193 118 100 23 58 108 4 12 727 2 2 5.56 4.30 77 1.549
21 11 13 33 32 2 2 0 0 184.0 168 101 100 24 73 168 10 7 793 5 0 4.89 4.50 92 1.310
22 14 13 29 29 4 0 0 0 189.0 199 101 96 21 57 145 4 5 801 0 1 4.57 4.27 93 1.354
Example I:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
19 4 4 12 12 0 0 0 0 84.3 61 26 25 5 23 77 2 3 328 0 0 2.67 4.32 162 0.996
20 12 14 31 31 2 1 0 0 191.0 195 105 96 23 60 176 6 11 816 2 0 4.52 4.34 96 1.335
With the exception of Player D, all of these guys were allowed to come up to the big show at a very young age and take their knocks from big league hitters, suffer defeat, and in essence, learn on the job. When teams realistically have no shot at competing for the World Series title, it's a good time to get a young guy in there and let him get an opportunity to face big league hitters. Realistically speaking, what can a minor league pitching coach teach a young kid that a major league pitching coach can't? The really great pitchers have that ego and poise that lets them struggle through early failures and come out on the other end of it better pitchers in the long run. That's my question about Homer Bailey, does he have that poise and ego to be a truly great pitcher? If so, he should be up here right now taking his knocks as a member of the 2007 Cincinnati Reds and learn how to pitch at the big league level, because these numbers show that this guy has proven that he shouldn't be pitching at the big league level:
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1998 22 MIN AL 8 14 32 32 1 0 0 0 172.3 195 113 108 25 70 107 2 1 772 0 0 5.64 4.70 83 1.538
1999 23 MIN AL 7 11 34 34 4 2 0 0 206.3 190 111 103 28 63 163 3 2 858 2 0 4.49 5.07 113 1.226
2000 24 MIN AL 13 10 33 33 0 0 0 0 200.0 205 123 108 35 44 160 7 5 849 0 0 4.86 5.27 108 1.245
2001 25 MIN AL 15 7 35 34 2 1 0 0 220.7 222 109 106 35 61 157 5 2 944 0 0 4.32 4.53 105 1.282 AS
2002 26 MIN AL 13 9 29 29 2 1 0 0 171.0 173 96 92 24 30 121 3 4 707 0 0 4.84 4.42 91 1.187
2003 27 MIN AL 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 17.0 15 5 5 2 1 7 0 0 66 0 0 2.65 4.62 175 0.941
2004 28 PHI NL 14 6 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 196 110 106 43 75 161 1 3 862 6 0 4.75 4.36 92 1.348
2005 29 CIN NL 8 15 34 34 0 0 0 0 186.3 237 141 134 40 52 123 7 8 855 2 0 6.47 4.44 69 1.551
2006 30 CIN NL 8 8 26 26 0 0 0 0 152.7 163 94 88 29 42 90 5 2 662 4 0 5.19 4.81 93 1.343
2007 31 CIN NL 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 10.7 13 7 6 2 3 10 0 1 49 0 0 5.06 4.13 82 1.500
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
10 Yr WL% .515 87 82 262 261 9 4 0 0 1538.0 1609 909 856 263 441 1099 33 28 6624 14 0 5.01 4.70 94 1.333
When your starting pitcher for his career has allowed an average of five runs per game, it's time to cut your losses and look for something else. I know it's been said over and over again, but Eric Milton has never been, nor will he ever be, a good major league pitcher.
Now, if the Reds feel that Bailey's psyche is too fragile to deal with struggling at the major league level, then that tells me that he isn't going to be a great major league pitcher, and the Reds should deal him now for whatever they can get for him before he becomes another Rick Ankiel, Byung Hyun-Kim, Steve Blass, Herb Score, or Mark Wohlers.
FYI, the above pitchers are:
A. Sandy Koufax
B. Greg Maddux
C. John Smoltz
D. Randy Johnson
E. Tom Glavine
F. Jake Peavy
G. Ben Sheets
H. Jeremy Bonderman
I. Felix Hernandez
Example A:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
19 2 2 12 5 2 2 4 0 41.7 33 15 14 2 28 30 1 2 183 1 1 3.02 4.08 135 1.464
20 2 4 16 10 0 0 1 0 58.7 66 37 32 10 29 30 0 1 261 0 2 4.91 3.96 81 1.619
21 5 4 34 13 2 0 12 0 104.3 83 49 45 14 51 122 2 5 444 1 0 3.88 4.15 107 1.284
22 11 11 40 26 5 0 7 1 158.7 132 89 79 19 105 131 1 17 714 6 0 4.48 4.11 92 1.494
23 8 6 35 23 6 1 6 2 153.3 136 74 69 23 92 173 0 5 679 4 1 4.05 4.22 104 1.487
24 8 13 37 26 7 2 7 1 175.0 133 83 76 20 100 197 1 9 753 6 0 3.91 3.99 102 1.331
Example B:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
20 2 4 6 5 1 0 1 0 31.0 44 20 19 3 11 20 1 2 144 2 0 5.52 4.06 74 1.774
21 6 14 30 27 1 1 2 0 155.7 181 111 97 17 74 101 4 4 701 13 7 5.61 4.29 77 1.638
Example C:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 2 7 12 12 0 0 0 0 64.0 74 40 39 10 33 37 2 2 297 4 1 5.48 3.70 67 1.672
Example D:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
24 3 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 26.0 23 8 7 3 7 25 0 3 109 0 0 2.42 3.59 148 1.154
25 7 13 29 28 2 0 1 0 160.7 147 100 86 13 96 130 3 7 715 2 7 4.82 3.95 82 1.512
Example E:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 2 4 9 9 0 0 0 0 50.3 55 34 31 5 33 20 3 1 238 4 1 5.54 4.37 79 1.748
22 7 17 34 34 1 0 0 0 195.3 201 111 99 12 63 84 8 2 844 7 2 4.56 3.70 81 1.352
Example F:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
21 6 7 17 17 0 0 0 0 97.7 106 54 49 11 33 90 3 4 430 4 1 4.52 3.83 85 1.423
22 12 11 32 32 0 0 0 0 194.7 173 94 89 33 82 156 6 2 827 3 0 4.11 3.94 96 1.310
Example G:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
22 11 10 25 25 1 1 0 0 151.3 166 89 80 23 48 94 5 3 653 6 0 4.76 4.41 93 1.414 AS
23 11 16 34 34 1 0 0 0 216.7 237 105 100 21 70 170 10 9 934 10 0 4.15 3.99 96 1.417
24 11 13 34 34 1 0 0 0 220.7 232 122 109 29 43 157 6 7 931 2 0 4.45 4.37 98 1.246
Example H:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
20 6 19 33 28 0 0 0 0 162.0 193 118 100 23 58 108 4 12 727 2 2 5.56 4.30 77 1.549
21 11 13 33 32 2 2 0 0 184.0 168 101 100 24 73 168 10 7 793 5 0 4.89 4.50 92 1.310
22 14 13 29 29 4 0 0 0 189.0 199 101 96 21 57 145 4 5 801 0 1 4.57 4.27 93 1.354
Example I:
Ag W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
19 4 4 12 12 0 0 0 0 84.3 61 26 25 5 23 77 2 3 328 0 0 2.67 4.32 162 0.996
20 12 14 31 31 2 1 0 0 191.0 195 105 96 23 60 176 6 11 816 2 0 4.52 4.34 96 1.335
With the exception of Player D, all of these guys were allowed to come up to the big show at a very young age and take their knocks from big league hitters, suffer defeat, and in essence, learn on the job. When teams realistically have no shot at competing for the World Series title, it's a good time to get a young guy in there and let him get an opportunity to face big league hitters. Realistically speaking, what can a minor league pitching coach teach a young kid that a major league pitching coach can't? The really great pitchers have that ego and poise that lets them struggle through early failures and come out on the other end of it better pitchers in the long run. That's my question about Homer Bailey, does he have that poise and ego to be a truly great pitcher? If so, he should be up here right now taking his knocks as a member of the 2007 Cincinnati Reds and learn how to pitch at the big league level, because these numbers show that this guy has proven that he shouldn't be pitching at the big league level:
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1998 22 MIN AL 8 14 32 32 1 0 0 0 172.3 195 113 108 25 70 107 2 1 772 0 0 5.64 4.70 83 1.538
1999 23 MIN AL 7 11 34 34 4 2 0 0 206.3 190 111 103 28 63 163 3 2 858 2 0 4.49 5.07 113 1.226
2000 24 MIN AL 13 10 33 33 0 0 0 0 200.0 205 123 108 35 44 160 7 5 849 0 0 4.86 5.27 108 1.245
2001 25 MIN AL 15 7 35 34 2 1 0 0 220.7 222 109 106 35 61 157 5 2 944 0 0 4.32 4.53 105 1.282 AS
2002 26 MIN AL 13 9 29 29 2 1 0 0 171.0 173 96 92 24 30 121 3 4 707 0 0 4.84 4.42 91 1.187
2003 27 MIN AL 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 17.0 15 5 5 2 1 7 0 0 66 0 0 2.65 4.62 175 0.941
2004 28 PHI NL 14 6 34 34 0 0 0 0 201.0 196 110 106 43 75 161 1 3 862 6 0 4.75 4.36 92 1.348
2005 29 CIN NL 8 15 34 34 0 0 0 0 186.3 237 141 134 40 52 123 7 8 855 2 0 6.47 4.44 69 1.551
2006 30 CIN NL 8 8 26 26 0 0 0 0 152.7 163 94 88 29 42 90 5 2 662 4 0 5.19 4.81 93 1.343
2007 31 CIN NL 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 10.7 13 7 6 2 3 10 0 1 49 0 0 5.06 4.13 82 1.500
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
10 Yr WL% .515 87 82 262 261 9 4 0 0 1538.0 1609 909 856 263 441 1099 33 28 6624 14 0 5.01 4.70 94 1.333
When your starting pitcher for his career has allowed an average of five runs per game, it's time to cut your losses and look for something else. I know it's been said over and over again, but Eric Milton has never been, nor will he ever be, a good major league pitcher.
Now, if the Reds feel that Bailey's psyche is too fragile to deal with struggling at the major league level, then that tells me that he isn't going to be a great major league pitcher, and the Reds should deal him now for whatever they can get for him before he becomes another Rick Ankiel, Byung Hyun-Kim, Steve Blass, Herb Score, or Mark Wohlers.
FYI, the above pitchers are:
A. Sandy Koufax
B. Greg Maddux
C. John Smoltz
D. Randy Johnson
E. Tom Glavine
F. Jake Peavy
G. Ben Sheets
H. Jeremy Bonderman
I. Felix Hernandez