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Redsfan08
04-21-2007, 09:18 PM
David Ross a triple play edwin batting terribly Dunn just has bad this year has last year what needs to be done we need an aggresive manager I think.

reds44
04-21-2007, 09:21 PM
Edwin has 2 hits tonight.

DTCromer
04-21-2007, 09:33 PM
As usual, Dunn's best game of the year is opening day then it's downhill from there. (So much for the new batting stance.)

David Ross needs to go. . .I'm serious. . he needs to go. Last year was a career year.

This was Milton's "good" start for the year. I promise the rest will be a lot worse.

keeganbrick
04-21-2007, 09:37 PM
Dunn hasnt looked well since his back spasms. I think he will come back around, but the Ks are always going to be there. I dont think anyone thought he would just stop striking out. This team needs to take pitches, I just get sick and tired of seeing Freel and Phillips hacking at everything when we really need them on base.

CTA513
04-21-2007, 09:39 PM
Reds gave up another unearned run due to an error.

Redsland
04-21-2007, 09:44 PM
What about getting a new hitting coach to shake things up?

;)

Marge'sMullet
04-21-2007, 09:47 PM
The shouldn't and hopefully won't pick up that option on that quarterback who plays leftfield.

Redsland
04-21-2007, 09:52 PM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."

harangatang
04-21-2007, 09:59 PM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."I can't figure out which Brennaman I dislike more.

Joseph
04-21-2007, 10:05 PM
David Ross a triple play edwin batting terribly Dunn just has bad this year has last year what needs to be done we need an aggresive manager I think.

I think, structurally speaking, that sentence is also a wreck.

As for the heart of the statement, this team was projected to be .500 and it is .500.

Fil3232
04-21-2007, 10:06 PM
I can't figure out which Brennaman I dislike more.

Did Adam Dunn do something to the Brennaman family? Why do they hate him? My money is on little-man's comlex towards him. Seriously.

guttle11
04-21-2007, 10:07 PM
If they sit Dunn tomorrow, I'd have no problem with it. He's so lost right now. Maybe he just needs a day to just sit and watch, or maybe his back is still bothering him. Hasn't been nearly the same since he missed that game in Chicago.

I don't know. This team isn't a wreck, though, the Central division is. Hopefully it turns out the Reds are the Hummer and not the Geo Metro.

alloverjr
04-21-2007, 10:08 PM
I think, structurally speaking, that sentence is also a wreck.

As for the heart of the statement, this team was projected to be .500 and it is .500.


Actually, I think this team was projected under .500, so why all the complaining? :)

Marc D
04-21-2007, 10:13 PM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."


Don't forget his boy's running tally of the number of K's vs AB's every single time Dunn K's. The venom drips from his voice whenever he gets going on Dunn.

Count me as one who thinks the Brennaman's hate Dunn on a personal level. If I ventured a guess I'd go in the direction of Napolean complex and scrappy vet man love stemming from a Pete Rose diety complex that is truely profound.

westofyou
04-21-2007, 11:23 PM
Don't forget his boy's running tally of the number of K's vs AB's every single time Dunn K's. The venom drips from his voice whenever he gets going on Dunn.

Count me as one who thinks the Brennaman's hate Dunn on a personal level. If I ventured a guess I'd go in the direction of Napolean complex and scrappy vet man love stemming from a Pete Rose diety complex that is truely profound.

Yeah he's a real "great"announcer, I wonder who's keeping a tally of his gaffes?

I mean besides us?

Hey Thom if you read this take the time and hit the link below, it's the MLB leaders in K's (yes Dunn is #1) familiarize yourself with that part of the list (Dunn #1) then slide you're little beady eyes to the right and check out the OPS of each player, check out the guys below Dunn in K's like LaRoch or Monroe, Cameron Delgado and Gordon.

Ouch.....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2007&seasonType=2&sort=strikeouts&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

jmac
04-22-2007, 12:10 AM
Yeah he's a real "great"announcer, I wonder who's keeping a tally of his gaffes?

I will just throw this out.
Last year towards the end of the year....Marty gave out that question thing where they give the answer in the 8th inning.
Anyway the question was on the last song sung at Elvis Presley's last concert ever.I knew this answer and waited but when they gave the choices, the correct answer was "not" one of the 3.
Marty said paraphrasing "this one I know "and said it was "Bridge over troubled water".(later said to be the right one)
Well..I thought it would be interesting to get Marty's reponse to being "so sure" and finding out he was wrong so i sent a PM to Matt and informed him and also sent a copy of the songs and order of the songs from the last concert.I told him from his Las Vegas years till the end , Elvis always ended his concerts with the same song "I Cant Help Falling In Love".
Well I listened to 8th and Marty again gave the answer as what he had said saying he "knew" that one all along.
I sent another PM to Matt who told me the guys at the station pick the questions so I dont know if Marty was ever told or not.
BTW....his last concert had an intermission and the song before the intermission was "Bridge Over Troubled Water" so...I dont know, maybe Marty went to the concert and left at "halftime" to go watch the reds or something.:dunno:
Anyway...Marty was wrong on that.
Just a little extra nugget.

tbball10
04-22-2007, 12:31 AM
Did Adam Dunn do something to the Brennaman family? Why do they hate him? My money is on little-man's comlex towards him. Seriously.

i dont think dunn did anything to the brennaman family. and they dont like him because he is a professional baseball player that is not a good hitter or fielder. dunn has his moments, but overall he just isnt that good of a hitter, and he kills the reds when the few chances they have to score runs, he strikes out to kill the rally.

reds44
04-22-2007, 12:39 AM
Why are people acting like Thom and Marty single only Dunn out? Thom has ripped on Freel plenty from what I've seen.

They are both fans. I'd rather have them doing the game then "gee whiz" Grande. Did anyone hear Thom's emotion during the Hatte homer and BP walkoff single? Those 2 calls were better then anything I heard from Grande.

harangatang
04-22-2007, 12:58 AM
I wouldn't care if Thom and Marty ripped on Dunn if their arguments were correct. The constant bashing of Dunn reminds me of how New York treats A-rod. I just can't believe the amount of disrespect given to the most productive offensive threat. I saw somewhere earlier where Marty was suggesting the Reds should bench Dunn. Considering the Reds should've lost 86 games last year, take another 100 runs out of this lineup and you lose 100 games.

keeganbrick
04-22-2007, 01:28 AM
Why are people acting like Thom and Marty single only Dunn out? Thom has ripped on Freel plenty from what I've seen.

They are both fans. I'd rather have them doing the game then "gee whiz" Grande. Did anyone hear Thom's emotion during the Hatte homer and BP walkoff single? Those 2 calls were better then anything I heard from Grande.

Agreed.

:beerme:

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 01:44 AM
I saw somewhere earlier where Marty was suggesting the Reds should bench Dunn. Considering the Reds should've lost 86 games last year, take another 100 runs out of this lineup and you lose 100 games.

Oh, I'm laughing!! So his replacement doesn't produce any runs? Does his replacement atleast get to field?

DTCromer
04-22-2007, 01:46 AM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."

Why is he wrong? You would think a guy who hits 40 HR in a year would have more than 92 RBIs. You would think a guy who hit 46 HR in a year would have hit more than 102 RBI's in a year. You would think a guy who's hit 40 HR in a year would have more than 100 RBI's period. Run producers drive in runs when their team needs them to. Does that not bother anyone? I'd like to know the percentage of runs driven in by Dunn other than the HR. My guess. . .not so many.

top6
04-22-2007, 03:01 AM
i have said before and will probably say again that one reason the reds aren't as popular in cincinnati as they once were is that there primary spokesman - marty - is not a positive force and makes fans bitter about the team and its young players.

keeganbrick
04-22-2007, 03:14 AM
It also may have something to do with not making the playoffs in over a decade.

savafan
04-22-2007, 05:24 AM
David Ross needs to go. . .I'm serious. . he needs to go. Last year was a career year.


So, who do you replace him with? :confused:

savafan
04-22-2007, 05:32 AM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."

Dunn is still getting on base at a .373 clip, and slugging .522 for an OPS of .895.

Oh yeah, he's also batting .299 and leads the team with 20 hits. He's struck out in 37% of his at bats. For the sake of argument, Manos de Oro has also struck out in 37% of his at bats. Dunn doesn't lead the team in outs made by the way. Dunn's 9 RBI are third on the team behind Hamilton's 11 and Phillips' 10.

savafan
04-22-2007, 05:45 AM
Why is he wrong? You would think a guy who hits 40 HR in a year would have more than 92 RBIs. You would think a guy who hit 46 HR in a year would have hit more than 102 RBI's in a year. You would think a guy who's hit 40 HR in a year would have more than 100 RBI's period. Run producers drive in runs when their team needs them to. Does that not bother anyone? I'd like to know the percentage of runs driven in by Dunn other than the HR. My guess. . .not so many.

RBI is such a subjective stat. You have to consider that the guys in front of you have to be on base before you can drive them in.

In 2004, Dunn finished fifth in the NL in extra base hits with 80. He came in sixth in 2005 with 77 extra base hits.

For his career, Dunn has hit a homerun every 14.3 at bats. That's sixth among active players, and 10th all time. The top 20?


1. Mark McGwire
2. Babe Ruth
3. Barry Bonds
4. Jim Thome
5. Albert Pujols
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Ralph Kiner
8. Harmon Killebrew
9. Sammy Sosa
10. Adam Dunn
11. Alex Rodriguez
12. Ted Williams
13. Ken Griffey
14. Carlos Delgado
15. Juan Gonzalez
T. Dave Kingman
17. Mickey Mantle
18. Jimmie Foxx
19. Mike Schmidt
20. Jose Canseco


There sure are a lot of "not very good hitters" on that list.

savafan
04-22-2007, 06:00 AM
Dunn doesn't lead the team in outs made by the way.

To quote myself and follow up on this post, here is how the Reds rank in # of outs:


1. Brandon Phillips-56
2. Adam Dunn-47
3. Edwin Encarnacion-44
4. Ryan Freel-44
5. Ken Griffey Jr.-38
6. Alex Gonzalez-37
7. David Ross-34
8. Scott Hatteberg-32
9. Josh Hamilton-22
10. Jeff Conine-20
11. Juan Castro-17
12. Javier Valentin-16
13. Chad Moeller-5
14. Norris Hopper-2
15. Enrique Cruz-1

hebroncougar
04-22-2007, 09:18 AM
Why is he wrong? You would think a guy who hits 40 HR in a year would have more than 92 RBIs. You would think a guy who hit 46 HR in a year would have hit more than 102 RBI's in a year. You would think a guy who's hit 40 HR in a year would have more than 100 RBI's period. Run producers drive in runs when their team needs them to. Does that not bother anyone? I'd like to know the percentage of runs driven in by Dunn other than the HR. My guess. . .not so many.

Yeah, he controls how many guys are on base when he homers. Especially when the guys batting in front of you are 8,9,1.

hebroncougar
04-22-2007, 09:18 AM
Oh, I'm laughing!! So his replacement doesn't produce any runs? Does his replacement atleast get to field?

Well........let's look at the Reds backup outfielders..........no, they don't produce runs real well.

Dracodave
04-22-2007, 09:41 AM
Why is he wrong? You would think a guy who hits 40 HR in a year would have more than 92 RBIs. You would think a guy who hit 46 HR in a year would have hit more than 102 RBI's in a year. You would think a guy who's hit 40 HR in a year would have more than 100 RBI's period. Run producers drive in runs when their team needs them to. Does that not bother anyone? I'd like to know the percentage of runs driven in by Dunn other than the HR. My guess. . .not so many.

RBI's are a team dependent stat. If the batters before Dunn can not get on base, how does he get RBI's? The team wide batting average for RISP is extremely crappy right now, it's not just Dunn doing that. Once again this entire team has put it's wieght on Dunn's shoulders and with no secondary hitter on this team to back him up, I really don't see how this team expects to score runs at a decent pace.

Houston went out and got Berkman some help in that lineup at a awfully crappy price, but it's working. Berkman is struggling but Carlos Lee is actually tearing it up. Where is Dunn's help? Griffey is getting old, no offense. Edwin is an slump, Hamilton's a rookie who I really hope does keep his pace up. Ross is crap and won't get much better than where he's at now. Phillips is struggling with learning plate discipline.

So whom steps up? Do we try to trade for a right handed bat to back up Dunn much like Berkman and Lee? Would that make sense? I don't see the rhyme or reason behind putting all the Reds struggles on Dunn's shoulders when there are other guys in the line up doing worse. And yes, whomever said Dunn is getting treated like A-Rod is exactly correctly.

This is getting old with the hatred for Dunn. If he's traded right now, this team loses the only real threat in the line up. Then we seriously do lose 90-100 games.

And you want to bring up his strike outs? He's trying to actually put the bat on the ball this year. I am not hating that fact that he is striking out swinging when he's trying to drive the ball. Many made that agruement for Ryan Howard last year, who hits in a much better lineup then Dunn does.

tbball10
04-22-2007, 11:25 AM
RBI is such a subjective stat. You have to consider that the guys in front of you have to be on base before you can drive them in.
In 2004, Dunn finished fifth in the NL in extra base hits with 80. He came in sixth in 2005 with 77 extra base hits.

For his career, Dunn has hit a homerun every 14.3 at bats. That's sixth among active players, and 10th all time. The top 20?


1. Mark McGwire
2. Babe Ruth
3. Barry Bonds
4. Jim Thome
5. Albert Pujols
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Ralph Kiner
8. Harmon Killebrew
9. Sammy Sosa
10. Adam Dunn
11. Alex Rodriguez
12. Ted Williams
13. Ken Griffey
14. Carlos Delgado
15. Juan Gonzalez
T. Dave Kingman
17. Mickey Mantle
18. Jimmie Foxx
19. Mike Schmidt
20. Jose Canseco


There sure are a lot of "not very good hitters" on that list.


when runners get on in front of him he simply does not drive them in. you really cant argue that... dunn sucks when you need him!

westofyou
04-22-2007, 11:32 AM
when runners get on in front of him he simply does not drive them in. you really cant argue that... dunn sucks when you need him!

Yet he leads the team in RBI's the last 3 years.

Can't argue with that eh?

Raisor
04-22-2007, 12:47 PM
Dunn's on pace to create 120 runs this sesason. That would have been good enough for 10th in the NL last year.

Anti-Dunn folks, it's not a Dunn problem. It's a YOU problem.

tbball10
04-22-2007, 12:57 PM
Yet he leads the team in RBI's the last 3 years.

Can't argue with that eh?

no i cant and im not... he hits way more home runs than anyone on the team, so if he dosent lead the reds in rbi's, then he has more serious problems than i thought he originally had. he also has more chances than most others on the team to drive in runs, so he should lead the team in rbi's.

Raisor
04-22-2007, 01:19 PM
RBI=The "Dude, Where's My Car" of statistics.

cincrazy
04-22-2007, 01:21 PM
Marty rips on Dunn because Dunn is a fundamentally flawed ballplayer who kills rally after rally. Maybe Dunn has indeed been this team's biggest offensive threat the last 5 years. Then again, that's not saying much, considering this team has been awful more often than not during that time period. As some have said, Marty and Thom call it as they see it. And Adam Dunn swinging right through pitches is something we see more often than not.

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 01:28 PM
Raisor, WOY, and savafan, Iíve been reading this board for quite some time over the years and I though I respect your opinions about Dunn. I donít know if you guys watch every game or not, but I do and this is what I see.

1. Heís not a tough out.
2. Doesnít perform well in clutch situations.
3. Heís way below average left fielder.
4. Make way too many base running blunders.
5. Doesnít seem to have progress in any area during the 6 years heís been in the majors.

You can throw as many stats as you want to try and make me and other believe that Dunn is a valuable asset to this team, but I know what I see.

Bottom line, Dunn isnít progressing heís actually regressing the last 2.5 years. He makes 10.5M and isnít worth that much. He doesnít learn from his mistakes is really what kills me. Pitchers know how to get him out and they do when they buckle down. I really hope the REDS donít pick up his option. I hope they can get something for him, but I doubt that they will get much.

Like I said, I respect your opinions, but there is no stat that Dunn has that will change my mind.

gilpdawg
04-22-2007, 01:31 PM
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."
Marty is a moron. People believe this crap too. Just do your job and call the game. He's the best when he does that. And if he can't, he should take his boy with him. He's just as bad.

Raisor
04-22-2007, 01:33 PM
Like I said, I respect your opinions, but there is no stat that Dunn has that will change my mind.


That's a "you" issue then.

I'm WILLING to change my mind about Dunn. I just haven't seen anyone come close to proving my beliefs wrong.

KronoRed
04-22-2007, 01:33 PM
RBI=The "Dude, Where's My Car" of statistics.

Sweet!

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 01:37 PM
That's a "you" issue then.

I'm WILLING to change my mind about Dunn. I just haven't seen anyone come close to proving my beliefs wrong.

Ok Raisor, answer this question.

Has Dunn progressed over the 6 years he's been in the big leagues?

If you answer yes, then I like to know where?

Raisor
04-22-2007, 01:42 PM
Ok Raisor, answer this question.

Has Dunn progressed over the 6 years he's been in the big leagues?

If you answer yes, then I like to know where?

I'm not hung up on Dunn "progressing". I like his game as it is.

If he has the exact season he had last year the next 10 years in a row, I'd be content.

People get hung up about what he's NOT. I like what he IS.

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 01:47 PM
I'm not hung up on Dunn "progressing". I like his game as it is.

If he has the exact season he had last year the next 10 years in a row, I'd be content.

People get hung up about what he's NOT. I like what he IS.

I see, your man love has made you blind. Hopefully the next 10 years are with another team.

Raisor
04-22-2007, 01:52 PM
I see, your man love has made you blind. Hopefully the next 10 years are with another team.

I'm just not hung up on K's, BA, or RBI. Those are YOUR blindspots.

joshnky
04-22-2007, 01:55 PM
Pitchers know how to get him out and they do when they buckle down.

So his 40 home runs, 112 walks, and 131 hits last year were all accidents? Or maybe the opposing pitcher just felt sorry for him. I might be the only one but when I think of a guy opposing pitchers know how to get out I think of someone with David Ross stats not Adam Dunn stats. But don't let me get in the way of your "facts" seen through lenses that are clearly not biased in any way.

savafan
04-22-2007, 01:59 PM
Dunn's on pace to create 120 runs this sesason. That would have been good enough for 10th in the NL last year.

Anti-Dunn folks, it's not a Dunn problem. It's a YOU problem.

Amen! :clap:

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 02:09 PM
So his 40 home runs, 112 walks, and 131 hits last year were all accidents? Or maybe the opposing pitcher just felt sorry for him. I might be the only one but when I think of a guy opposing pitchers know how to get out I think of someone with David Ross stats not Adam Dunn stats. But don't let me get in the way of your "facts" seen through lenses that are clearly not biased in any way.

I didn't say they felt sorry for him in those situations. The don't want to run their count up when they are winning a game by 2 + runs and no one on base. Everyone knows when no one is on base they will pitch differently then they do when there are runners on.

gilpdawg
04-22-2007, 02:29 PM
Don't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

Oh wait, you ignore the facts anyway.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 02:30 PM
I don’t know if you guys watch every game or not, but I do and this is what I see.

I watch every game yes, and probably another 1 1/2 a day.

So I think your points are valid on his baserunning, fielding etc... but I wasn't talking about any of that now was I?

Marge'sMullet
04-22-2007, 02:37 PM
I watch every game yes, and probably another 1 1/2 a day.

So I think your points are valid on his baserunning, fielding etc... but I wasn't talking about any of that now was I?

WOY, you seem like a reasonable person, can you honestly say that Dunn has progressed over the last 6 years?

tbball10
04-22-2007, 02:40 PM
WOW WOW WOW WOW... dunn SUCKS... for references- see last AB. he gets opportunities to drive in runs, but he just dosent.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 02:45 PM
WOY, you seem like a reasonable person, can you honestly say that Dunn has progressed over the last 6 years?

I think he progressed until 2005 and he's been stagnating with a slight retrograde since.

I don't believe that any player is the same player after they've been around the league more then once, they adjusted to him, he to them and then they to him again... now it's his turn to adjust. But plain and simple his game is walking and power, it's a big part of baseball, especially in today's game... there have always been guys like Dunn who are lightening rods for both adulation and disdain, not everybody is Pete Rose of Josh Hamilton, nor can everyone pile up the HR's and Walks like Dunn. I get that, and I can deal with it myself.

tbball10
04-22-2007, 02:45 PM
i really do wish dunn would drive in a run or do something positive, because i keep losing rep points because i just cant help myself... he's that bad!

westofyou
04-22-2007, 02:45 PM
WOW WOW WOW WOW... dunn SUCKS... for references- see last AB. he gets opportunities to drive in runs, but he just dosent.

Yes that last bat sucked... so does your post eh?

But let's just call it sample size and move on.

joshnky
04-22-2007, 02:48 PM
WOW WOW WOW WOW... dunn SUCKS... for references- see last AB. he gets opportunities to drive in runs, but he just dosent.

Since you present his last at bat as proof will you be convinced that he does not suck the next time he does something good? Its a long season and all players experience peaks and valleys. Based on your line of reasoning, there isn't a player on this roster that doesn't suck right now.:rolleyes:

guttle11
04-22-2007, 02:56 PM
Since you present his last at bat as proof will you be convinced that he does not suck the next time he does something good? Its a long season and all players experience peaks and valleys. Based on your line of reasoning, there isn't a player on this roster that doesn't suck right now.:rolleyes:

Well, in the interest of fairness, they all do. It's what happens when the whole team falls into a slump.

I(heart)Freel
04-22-2007, 02:58 PM
A wise man said baseball was a game of adjustments. We thought we saw AD make adjustments in spring that would result in less frustrating outs during the season.

That has NOT happened folks. So I think it would be smart to stop making this a personal issue on this board and start talking about what happens between the lines.

Here's my take: Marty (and Thom for that matter) clearly do NOT have anything against Dunn personally. Little guy syndrome... give me a break.

Broadcast announcers live - even more than rabid message board posters - for moments of excitement in the ball game. And Dunn has the God given ability to make a whole boatload of those. So when he doesn't and in fact when he creates the opposite (moments of sheer disappointment) of course it's natural to expect that those announcers are going to note that. And it will wear on them.

And for the fella who posted that he wanted to see Dunn progress, I concur. This is exactly when it's supposed to happen. Magical 27th bday. So, yea... I don't think it's irrational to expect to see the big boy cut down on terrible ABs. Case in point: what I just watched. It was three kinds of ugly.

Yachtzee
04-22-2007, 03:57 PM
WOW WOW WOW WOW... dunn SUCKS... for references- see last AB. he gets opportunities to drive in runs, but he just dosent.

Now where is that gosh darn forest? I can't seem to find it with all these trees in the way.

Degenerate39
04-22-2007, 04:43 PM
So much for trading offense for defense Wayne. Wayne has gotten lucky with some of his trades but I think "the trade" is really biting us in the ass now. We only got to bullpen starters who aren't even playing for the Reds right now. I like Gonzo but I miss Lopez's bat. I miss Kearns but I do like Griffey in right field and Josh Hamilton taking up Kearns spot.

Tom Servo
04-22-2007, 04:50 PM
So much for trading offense for defense Wayne. Wayne has gotten lucky with some of his trades but I think "the trade" is really biting us in the ass now. We only got to bullpen starters who aren't even playing for the Reds right now. I like Gonzo but I miss Lopez's bat. I miss Kearns but I do like Griffey in right field and Josh Hamilton taking up Kearns spot.
Just think of how much worse the defense would be right now with FeLo still on the team though.

savafan
04-22-2007, 04:55 PM
Just think of how much worse the defense would be right now with FeLo still on the team though.

It's hard to pinpoint how many defensive chances FeLo would have, and how he would have fared. We pretty much know what we'd be getting with FeLo's bat though, and that is sorely missed.

jmac
04-22-2007, 04:59 PM
I can handle Kearns not being in there with the emergence of JH.
Problem is EE 190 AVG, BP 224avg, Gonzo (a weak) 224 avg,Ross' avg isnt even high enough to type.
I expect EE avg to come up but the other's I dont look for much improvement.

BUTLER REDSFAN
04-22-2007, 05:06 PM
Originally Posted by Redsland
Marty in the first: "Dunn doing what he does best: swinging right through it."

Marty in the eighth (?): "Time to face facts. Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Marty later in that inning: "I would think this team might look at putting Junior in left, Ryan Freel in center, Josh Hamilton in right, and sitting Adam Dunn on the bench."

I can't figure out which Brennaman I dislike more


What did he say exactly that was wrong??

TheBigLebowski
04-22-2007, 05:48 PM
Reality shouldn't be setting already. It's only been 19 games.

We should have been able to believe we're a competitive baseball team for at LEAST a month and a half.

cincrazy
04-22-2007, 06:02 PM
I think anyone that says Adam Dunn "sucks" is far from accurate. He doesn't "suck." But he's not, nor will he ever be IMO, the best player on a playoff caliber team. I just don't see it now, and I don't think that I'll ever be able to see it. Poor defense, poor baserunning, and an unbelievable ability to not only make outs in the clutch, but to have TERRIBLE at bats, kills this team. I think Adam Dunn is a good guy, and I think that he tries hard, but he is what he is. For some of you, that's good enough, and I respect that. But for me, for what we're paying him now and what we could be paying him soon enough, it's not nearly enough for me.

Caveat Emperor
04-22-2007, 06:10 PM
So much for trading offense for defense Wayne. Wayne has gotten lucky with some of his trades but I think "the trade" is really biting us in the ass now. We only got to bullpen starters who aren't even playing for the Reds right now. I like Gonzo but I miss Lopez's bat. I miss Kearns but I do like Griffey in right field and Josh Hamilton taking up Kearns spot.

"The Trade" didn't kill the 2007 Reds. What is killing the 2007 Reds is the fact that Wayne Krivsky's personal wikipedia doesn't include a listing for the phrase "Short Track Record" anywhere.

If it did, he might've realized that counting on David Ross, Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion to proudce all the team's right-handed runs based on 1 good year for each of them might not've been the smartest decision in the world.

This team misses Rich Aurillia and the pre-'06 Jason LaRue more than it misses Lopez or Kearns, IMO.

flyer85
04-22-2007, 06:11 PM
It's hard to pinpoint how many defensive chances FeLo would have, and how he would have fared. We pretty much know what we'd be getting with FeLo's bat though, and that is sorely missed.Wayne sold the cow for a handful of magic beans :evil:

Kc61
04-22-2007, 06:12 PM
Whole Dunn debate will soon focus on the following question: Is this player worth $13.5 million next year, which is the amount of his 2008 team option. If not, then he should be shopped immediately and traded by the deadline for the best deal possible.

I haven't reached any conclusion yet, but with his recent play I am starting to think that a small market team -- which doesn't have many $13.5 million deals to give out -- would be poorly advised to exercise such an option on Dunn. But it is only April and maybe soon the Jacoby influence will manifest itself and Dunn will prove himself to be a $13.5 million player.

Otherwise, this team needs to just stay the course, keep bringing in the kind of talented players recently acquired (Phillips, Hamilton, Arroyo), and not panic. They also need to recognize that it takes awhile for some guys, like EE, to fully develop and you have to stick with them.

This team is in transition and it will be awhile.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 06:42 PM
It's hard to pinpoint how many defensive chances FeLo would have, and how he would have fared. We pretty much know what we'd be getting with FeLo's bat though, and that is sorely missed.


Felo in DC

.281/.362/.365/.727 - 2006
.308/.368/.346/.714 - 2007

Freel 2007

.290/.371/.339/.710

IMO Freel has replaced Lopez's bat.

savafan
04-22-2007, 06:44 PM
Felo in DC

.281/.362/.365/.727 - 2006
.308/.368/.346/.714 - 2007

Freel 2007

.290/.371/.339/.710

IMO Freel has replaced Lopez's bat.

Is it really a replacement though when they were both playing here at the same time?

paintmered
04-22-2007, 06:46 PM
What did he say exactly that was wrong??

Right or wrong, it's not his place to make those comments.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 06:47 PM
Is it really a replacement though when they were both playing here at the same time?

Guess not, but Lopez is and was the worst fielding SS I've seen as a regular and frankly I was done watching it myself.

M2
04-22-2007, 07:45 PM
Amazing how when the team goes in the tank it's Adam Dunn's fault. From where I sit he's one of the few players on this team who's done much of anthing at the plate this season. So what if he's had a bad six games. As long as Jerry Narron doesn't do something idiotic, like keep Dunn in the #5 slot, then Dunn will continue to be one of the team's few threats at the plate.

M2
04-22-2007, 07:45 PM
Guess not, but Lopez is and was the worst fielding SS I've seen as a regular and frankly I was done watching it myself.

Where is it written he has to play SS?

savafan
04-22-2007, 07:52 PM
Where is it written he has to play SS?

No where. I, and many others like me, feel that the Reds would have been better served with Lopez at 2nd and Phillips at SS.

edabbs44
04-22-2007, 07:54 PM
No where. I, and many others like me, feel that the Reds would have been better served with Lopez at 2nd and Phillips at SS.

Would have made a lot of sense to at least tried it out last year.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 08:00 PM
Where is it written he has to play SS?

Nowhere, but it looks like 2nd was already earmarked here.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 08:02 PM
No where. I, and many others like me, feel that the Reds would have been better served with Lopez at 2nd and Phillips at SS.

Isn't the fact that the Reds and the Indians didn't go with Phillips at SS a pretty good sign that the folks who watched Brandon play live didn't think it was that great of an idea?

M2
04-22-2007, 08:04 PM
Nowhere, but it looks like 2nd was already earmarked here.

That leaves six other positions.

Mind you, I advocated trading Felipe, just not giving him away. Good idea, horrid execution on that one, of nearly Walkerian and Williamsonian proportions.

westofyou
04-22-2007, 08:07 PM
That leaves six other positions.


Almost as many as the Kama Sutra eh?

edabbs44
04-22-2007, 08:08 PM
Isn't the fact that the Reds and the Indians didn't go with Phillips at SS a pretty good sign that the folks who watched Brandon play live didn't think it was that great of an idea?

The Indians gave Phillips away for nothing. Griffey played CF all of 2006.

Teams make mistakes. It was a mistake not to try it. No one is saying he was the second coming of Ozzie Smith, but it was worth a try before basically DFAing Lopez.

M2
04-22-2007, 08:10 PM
Almost as many as the Kama Sutra eh?

I'm not sure if he's got the range for the Ostrich's Tail.

Ludwig Reds Fan
04-22-2007, 08:39 PM
Whole Dunn debate will soon focus on the following question: Is this player worth $13.5 million next year, which is the amount of his 2008 team option.


And the answer is, "yes he is"....to an American League team that needs a DH and has deep pockets...on the way to the playoffs of course.




This team is in transition and it will be awhile.

Having a payroll like ours, in a city our size... going against the rest of the MLB is like bringing a knife to a gunfight. Every year I hope the Reds are better with the knife, when the guns start a blazin'... well every year I hope. I'll leave it at that.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 09:46 AM
Whole Dunn debate will soon focus on the following question: Is this player worth $13.5 million next year, which is the amount of his 2008 team option. If not, then he should be shopped immediately and traded by the deadline for the best deal possible.



This team is in transition and it will be awhile.

They should look for a Carlos Lee type deal like we saw last summer in the Texas/Milwaukee trade. If you are of the belief that Dunn is more valuable than Lee then you have to start your expectations there. For my money, Milwaukee got just as good a player (Kevin Mench) as Lee, plus added a closer and two additional players to boot.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 09:53 AM
RBI is such a subjective stat. You have to consider that the guys in front of you have to be on base before you can drive them in.

In 2004, Dunn finished fifth in the NL in extra base hits with 80. He came in sixth in 2005 with 77 extra base hits.

For his career, Dunn has hit a homerun every 14.3 at bats. That's sixth among active players, and 10th all time. The top 20?


1. Mark McGwire
2. Babe Ruth
3. Barry Bonds
4. Jim Thome
5. Albert Pujols
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Ralph Kiner
8. Harmon Killebrew
9. Sammy Sosa
10. Adam Dunn
11. Alex Rodriguez
12. Ted Williams
13. Ken Griffey
14. Carlos Delgado
15. Juan Gonzalez
T. Dave Kingman
17. Mickey Mantle
18. Jimmie Foxx
19. Mike Schmidt
20. Jose Canseco


There sure are a lot of "not very good hitters" on that list.


It's areas like this where stats can get you in trouble. By looking at that list you can make the argument that Dunn is a Hall of Famer but the reality is he's not even a backup NL All Star in his prime. It's been years since he made an All Star team and this year will not be any different unless his production changes. Is a guy who isn't even among the elite in his league worth $13mill?

The most disappointing thing to me about Adam Dunn is the fact that his game peaked in his first full season in the majors. He has not improved as a ballplayer since he was 22 years old. That's troubling on a lot of levels.

RichRed
04-23-2007, 10:17 AM
Yeah he's a real "great"announcer, I wonder who's keeping a tally of his gaffes?

I mean besides us?

Hey Thom if you read this take the time and hit the link below, it's the MLB leaders in K's (yes Dunn is #1) familiarize yourself with that part of the list (Dunn #1) then slide you're little beady eyes to the right and check out the OPS of each player, check out the guys below Dunn in K's like LaRoch or Monroe, Cameron Delgado and Gordon.

Ouch.....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2007&seasonType=2&sort=strikeouts&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

Problem is, you're assuming he'll know what OPS is.

westofyou
04-23-2007, 10:20 AM
Problem is, you're assuming he'll know what OPS is.

You're right, if Thom doesn't get it by now, then he'll never get it.

Seems to be an epidemic in the Tri State area from what I can surmise.

BRM
04-23-2007, 10:42 AM
How exactly does a guy with an .867 OPS suck? That OPS is good for 6th in all of baseball for leftfielders by the way. Is this a BARISP thing again or is it as simple as the K's?

TheBigLebowski
04-23-2007, 10:42 AM
They should look for a Carlos Lee type deal like we saw last summer in the Texas/Milwaukee trade. If you are of the belief that Dunn is more valuable than Lee then you have to start your expectations there. For my money, Milwaukee got just as good a player (Kevin Mench) as Lee, plus added a closer and two additional players to boot.

Kevin Mench is just as good as Carlos Lee? Please support that. Statistically, you cannot. If you're speaking in terms of things not as easily quantifiable, such as scrappiness, veteran presence or, perhaps intellect, you'd have support if you are of the belief that the size of one's head is directly proportional to his or her intelligence. Otherwise, I think you were just trying to sneak one by us there.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 11:18 AM
How exactly does a guy with an .867 OPS suck? That OPS is good for 6th in all of baseball for leftfielders by the way. Is this a BARISP thing again or is it as simple as the K's?

Manny has a .672 OPS...I'll take Manny over Dunn any day of the week.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 11:19 AM
Kevin Mench is just as good as Carlos Lee? Please support that. Statistically, you cannot. If you're speaking in terms of things not as easily quantifiable, such as scrappiness, veteran presence or, perhaps intellect, you'd have support if you are of the belief that the size of one's head is directly proportional to his or her intelligence. Otherwise, I think you were just trying to sneak one by us there.

OK, I'll put it this way. Kevin Mench is an adequate replacement for Carlos Lee. He's a couple years younger and better defensively. Dollar for dollar he's a much better value for a team like Milwaukee than Carlos Lee.

My point is the trade was excellent from Milwaukee's standpoint. Do you disagree?

BRM
04-23-2007, 11:19 AM
Manny has a .672 OPS...I'll take Manny over Dunn any day of the week.

I'd take Manny over just about anybody. Does that mean everyone sucks? Dunn isn't Manny or Pujols so he sucks?

TheBigLebowski
04-23-2007, 11:22 AM
OK, I'll put it this way. Kevin Mench is an adequate replacement for Carlos Lee. He's a couple years younger and better defensively. Dollar for dollar he's a much better value for a team like Milwaukee than Carlos Lee.

My point is the trade was excellent from Milwaukee's standpoint. Do you disagree?


I do agree that they made a great deal, especially considering how well Cordero is pitching. Had you simply said that, I would have been right there with you.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 11:24 AM
Manny has a .672 OPS...I'll take Manny over Dunn any day of the week.

As your post correctly points out, OPS in and of itself does not measure greatness. The problem with Adam Dunn is his lack of run production. He can't seem to drive in runs unless he hits a HR. That will never change unless his strike outs decrease and he learns to situationally hit.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 11:24 AM
I'd take Manny over just about anybody. Does that mean everyone sucks? Dunn isn't Manny or Pujols so he sucks?

No...you were talking about where Dunn is ranked in OPS for a LFer. Manny is behind him. So even though he is ranked as 6th in OPS, that doesn't really show his true worth if Manny isn't one of those 5 ahead of him.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 11:26 AM
I do agree that they made a great deal, especially considering how well Cordero is pitching. Had you simply said that, I would have been right there with you.

Whether Kevin Mench is Carlos Lee's equal or whether he is a notch below doesn't change my point that Milwaukee made an excellent deal and Krivsky should be looking to get at least as much in return for Dunn.

BRM
04-23-2007, 11:28 AM
No...you were talking about where Dunn is ranked in OPS for a LFer. Manny is behind him. So even though he is ranked as 6th in OPS, that doesn't really show his true worth if Manny isn't one of those 5 ahead of him.

My point was that although he is struggling as of late, he's still relatively productive. His overall numbers aren't all that bad.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 11:36 AM
My point was that although he is struggling as of late, he's still relatively productive. His overall numbers aren't all that bad.

I guess that depends on what you believe in. Blind OPS, yeah, he looks pretty good. But after watching the games and looking at the underlying details for his stats, he could be a lot better. He has 3 RBI in 16 ABs with RISP. The stat mongers can come out in droves now, but that is pathetic. 3 singles in 16 ABs. Stat line of .188/.350/.538. Sweet.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 11:42 AM
My point was that although he is struggling as of late, he's still relatively productive. His overall numbers aren't all that bad.

The problem is with the exception of the first two weeks of this year he's struggled for a long time, not just of late. His overall numbers are not that bad, but they're not that good either. What he gains in OPS he takes away in strike outs and lack of RBIs. Can we expect him to ever improve given that he hasn't (improved) in the past 5 years?

savafan
04-23-2007, 11:48 AM
As your post correctly points out, OPS in and of itself does not measure greatness. The problem with Adam Dunn is his lack of run production. He can't seem to drive in runs unless he hits a HR. That will never change unless his strike outs decrease and he learns to situationally hit.

But you can't "produce" any runs if the guys hitting in front of you aren't getting on base. You want your run producers hitting in your number four and five spots in the order. Dunn typically bats second, no? Batting order spots one through three's job is to get on base and have guys four and five knock them in. Dunn gets on base. As I look at it, in the manner in which Jerry Narron constructs his lineup, Adam Dunn does his job.

BRM
04-23-2007, 11:48 AM
I guess that depends on what you believe in. Blind OPS, yeah, he looks pretty good. But after watching the games and looking at the underlying details for his stats, he could be a lot better. He has 3 RBI in 16 ABs with RISP. The stat mongers can come out in droves now, but that is pathetic. 3 singles in 16 ABs. Stat line of .188/.350/.538. Sweet.

Of course he could be better. Who couldn't? Most of the team is struggling offensively. It's not just Adam Dunn.

IslandRed
04-23-2007, 11:58 AM
But you can't "produce" any runs if the guys hitting in front of you aren't getting on base. You want your run producers hitting in your number four and five spots in the order. Dunn typically bats second, no? Batting order spots one through three's job is to get on base and have guys four and five knock them in. Dunn gets on base. As I look at it, in the manner in which Jerry Narron constructs his lineup, Adam Dunn does his job.

Speaking only for myself, I'm not a fan of defining someone's "job" by where he hits in the order. Over the course of a season, there isn't much difference in the situations hitters find themselves in. The #2 hitter is going to come up with runners on base; the #4 is going to come up with bases empty. There will be small cumulative differences, but they're small. If every hitter in the batting order views his job as "don't make an out, knock 'em in if you can," that would be okay with me.

Having said that, eventually someone needs to get the hit to drive in the baserunners. That's an area where the Reds were genuinely subpar last year. But that's not something you can lay at any one guy's feet. It's a team sport.

smith288
04-23-2007, 12:05 PM
Even I have downgraded my support for Dunn. His focus on limiting his K's either shows he lacks that focus or the hole in his game is bigger than the Grand Canyon. Seriously, although Castro appears to be K'ng at the same pace, he has had a few clutch hits. I really root for Dunn but my support is waning as his K's pile up at a seriously embarassing rate. All I have left to defend is "well, his OPS is still pretty good" as he swings through yet another low-inside offspeed pitch.

westofyou
04-23-2007, 12:11 PM
Nine Days ago Dunn was at

.326 /.396/.628/1.024

24 at bats later he's on a boat to Molokai.

Go figure.

BRM
04-23-2007, 12:16 PM
Blind OPS, yeah, he looks pretty good.

I just caught this statement so I thought I'd look at the other numbers. Dunn's rank among all leftfielders:

OBP: 7th
SLG: 6th
Walks: 5th
Steals: 1st (crazy I know :) )
Runs: 4th
Average: 7th
RBI: 9th

This must boil down to K's and BARISP because he ranks pretty good so far in most offensive categories. Of course he could be better but I'm okay with what he's done so far. A couple weeks worth of a slump which comes on the heels of really bad back spasms isn't going to cause me to throw in the towel.

osuceltic
04-23-2007, 12:17 PM
Nine Days ago Dunn was at

.326 /.396/.628/1.024

24 at bats later he's on a boat to Molokai.

Go figure.

While I agree with your basic point (too soon; don't panic ... I think that's your point), you also could go back and post his September numbers and other than that blip the first 10 days or so this season, it would show he really is struggling over his last eight weeks or so of regular-season baseball.

westofyou
04-23-2007, 12:23 PM
While I agree with your basic point (too soon; don't panic ... I think that's your point), you also could go back and post his September numbers and other than that blip the first 10 days or so this season, it would show he really is struggling over his last eight weeks or so of regular-season baseball.

And I could post his line on 8-1-06 (.263/.393/.568/.964) and back and forth and back and forth.

Always Red
04-23-2007, 12:24 PM
Of course he could be better. Who couldn't? Most of the team is struggling offensively. It's not just Adam Dunn.


Nine Days ago Dunn was at

.326 /.396/.628/1.024

24 at bats later he's on a boat to Molokai.

Go figure.

Voices of reason...

Adam Dunn is the not the problem on this team. Get rid of him, and then you really have next to nothing, seeings as how hitting is the problem, and he's the most productive hitter the Reds have.

I just don't get it. No, he's not ManRam, ARod or Pujols, but he is Adam Dunn. Nearly every team out there would love to have his production, for a guy who "just doesn't produce."

Caveat Emperor
04-23-2007, 12:36 PM
Nine Days ago Dunn was at

.326 /.396/.628/1.024

24 at bats later he's on a boat to Molokai.

Go figure.

In the minds of most people, hes been on the boat for 2 years, he just gets an occasional call from the governor when he does something they approve of -- like hit a walkoff Grand Slam.

smith288
04-23-2007, 12:42 PM
Nine Days ago Dunn was at

.326 /.396/.628/1.024

24 at bats later he's on a boat to Molokai.

Go figure.
I know what you are saying but to go from those to what he is doing now in only 24 at bat shows he is horribly inconsistent and showing he is not dependable at all to carry the team which he is getting paid pretty handsomly to do (heck, even Phillips carried this team last year).

Im a fan of Dunns but there is no improvement. He is still an all or nothing guy with below average defense.

If baseball had a shootout (homerun derby) like hockey at the end of the tie, Dunn would be around 3rd or 4th pick to step up based on his history. He just seems to crumble just when we need him to step up. I wish I could paint a prettier picture but I feel like a member of some battered wife's club with him as my favorite player.

Im REALLY ready to see him break out and figure it out like we all thought he would.

pedro
04-23-2007, 12:50 PM
After reading this entire thread I can now say I've identified the problem with the Reds.

A lot of their fans are stupid.

BRM
04-23-2007, 12:52 PM
After reading this entire thread I can now say I've identified the problem with the Reds.

A lot of their fans are stupid.

:laugh:

Wait...that shouldn't be funny.

Johnny Footstool
04-23-2007, 12:58 PM
After reading this entire thread I can now say I've identified the problem with the Reds.

A lot of their fans are stupid.

Not stupid -- Reactionary.

Puffy
04-23-2007, 01:11 PM
Not stupid -- Reactionary.

Reactionarily stupid??

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 01:11 PM
After reading this entire thread I can now say I've identified the problem with the Reds.

A lot of their fans are stupid.

Totally agree. I can't believe that so many of us fans care so much about a team that just flat out refuses to improve. ;)

cincrazy
04-23-2007, 01:13 PM
So Adam Dunn can be the best player on a playoff team? Because lets face it, this team is a small to middle market team, and 13 million per year is BEST PLAYER money for a small to mid market team. I think he's incapable of being the centerpiece of an offense that rises to the occasion and takes this team to the playoffs. Adam Dunn would be perfect in a big market, with other good hitter's around him. Adam Dunn is not perfect in this lineup, where, unfairly or not, he's asked to carry the entire load.

I was hoping that things would change with Jacoby, and maybe they will. But I still see the inconsistent player that is too prone to long cold streaks to ever carry an offense for more than a few weeks at a time. I don't always go by what I see on paper, I go by what I see on the field, and more often than not what I see on the field doesn't translate to a majority of the payroll being tied up into him. The fact of the matter is, a guy like Johan Santana would be licking his chops to face Adam Dunn in a big situation. That doesn't fit the definition of a great hitter to me.

M2
04-23-2007, 01:16 PM
What he gains in OPS he takes away in strike outs and lack of RBIs.

I will mail you a dollar if you can explain how that sentence makes the least bit of sense.

demas863
04-23-2007, 01:17 PM
Raisor, WOY, and savafan, Iíve been reading this board for quite some time over the years and I though I respect your opinions about Dunn. I donít know if you guys watch every game or not, but I do and this is what I see.

1. Heís not a tough out.
2. Doesnít perform well in clutch situations.
3. Heís way below average left fielder.
4. Make way too many base running blunders.
5. Doesnít seem to have progress in any area during the 6 years heís been in the majors.

You can throw as many stats as you want to try and make me and other believe that Dunn is a valuable asset to this team, but I know what I see.

Bottom line, Dunn isnít progressing heís actually regressing the last 2.5 years. He makes 10.5M and isnít worth that much. He doesnít learn from his mistakes is really what kills me. Pitchers know how to get him out and they do when they buckle down. I really hope the REDS donít pick up his option. I hope they can get something for him, but I doubt that they will get much.

Like I said, I respect your opinions, but there is no stat that Dunn has that will change my mind.

#5 pretty much says it all. Given that track record where can he possibly go from here? Who can refute that he continues to be one of the most cavalier and inept outfielders in the majors? And with the count 3-2 he's put away virtually every time in clutch situations with a high, outside (off the plate) fastball. Virtually every single time. I watch all the games too.

I think the Brennamans express their dismay because of his lack of hustle (read perhaps as 'lackadaisical demanor') and his apparent stubborness to accept instruction. Dunn and AK, brothers in arms, seem to have similar mental attitudes about the game and themselves and like AK, Dunn will very likely be gone while he still has some trade value.

The "Dunnies" out there may be frustrated because of the enormous potential this guy had when he came up and which he seemily has squandered (read perhaps as 'not allowed to be developed'). They continue to look for a non-existent ray of hope. Even if Freel and Phillips did their jobs and got on base more often, thus creating more clutch/rbi situations for the big guy, can one logically conclude he would produce significantly more than he does now? A situational hitter he is not.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 01:27 PM
I will mail you a dollar if you can explain how that sentence makes the least bit of sense.

I'll give it a shot.

If you had a choice, which scenario would you choose?

1) Dunn singles with no one on base in AB #1 and then Ks with men on 2nd and 3rd in AB #2.

2) Dunn singles with men on 2nd and 3rd and Ks with no one on base.

Both scenarios have the same effect on OPS.

I'll take scenario #2.

I'll PM my address to you later. ;)

CTA513
04-23-2007, 01:35 PM
Amazing how when the team goes in the tank it's Adam Dunn's fault. From where I sit he's one of the few players on this team who's done much of anthing at the plate this season. So what if he's had a bad six games. As long as Jerry Narron doesn't do something idiotic, like keep Dunn in the #5 slot, then Dunn will continue to be one of the team's few threats at the plate.

Its easier to blame Dunn for the crappy homestand than to see that the Reds as a whole played like crap. The Reds defense commited an error in every game this homestand (13 total), while the Reds pitchers plunked 9 batters. The Reds had a total of 15 hits in the Phillies series and scored a total of 6 runs which matches the 6 errors they had in those 3 games.

M2
04-23-2007, 01:35 PM
I'll give it a shot.

If you had a choice, which scenario would you choose?

1) Dunn singles with no one on base in AB #1 and then Ks with men on 2nd and 3rd in AB #2.

2) Dunn singles with men on 2nd and 3rd and Ks with no one on base.

Both scenarios have the same effect on OPS.

I'll take scenario #2.

I'll PM my address to you later. ;)

And these are logical either-or choices exist in what universe?

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 01:41 PM
And these are logical either-or choices exist in what universe?

In the universe of baseball. He historically performs better when runners aren't in scoring position.

One of the big reasons why people discount BA is because it gives equal value to both a single and a HR. They should also discount OPS to an extent since it gives the same value to a solo HR as it does a grand slam. Or a GS when you are up 8 to a 2 run HR when you are down one in the 9th.

Stats are great and OPS has extreme value. But it has its flaws just like any stat. They have to be looked at as pieces of the puzzle, not as the be-all, end-all measuring tool.

I(heart)Freel
04-23-2007, 01:51 PM
Stats are great and OPS has extreme value. But it has its flaws just like any stat. They have to be looked at as pieces of the puzzle, not as the be-all, end-all measuring tool.


I love you.

Redsland
04-23-2007, 01:52 PM
He historically performs better when runners aren't in scoring position.
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

Always Red
04-23-2007, 01:55 PM
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

I love you.

membengal
04-23-2007, 01:55 PM
I could have sworn I had read this thread somewhere on here before...

pedro
04-23-2007, 01:56 PM
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

Didn't you know that those OPS numbers are artificially inflated by walks and that if he would just swing at more balls he'd have a trazillion RBI but he doesn't because he's too busy thinking about playing nintendo and eating brisket?

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 01:57 PM
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

Dunn's OPS is more OBP heavy with RISP and more BA heavy with the bases empty. I'll take a hit over a walk with RISP anyday.

I know that they correlate to runs created the same, but I'd rather score a run than correlate to a created run.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 01:58 PM
Didn't you know that those OPS numbers are artificially inflated by walks and that if he would just swing at more balls he'd have a trazillion RBI but he doesn't because he's too busy thinking about playing nintendo and eating brisket?

Yeah...swing at more balls. If you could find someone on here who ever said that he should do that, I'll mail you 2 dollars.

M2
04-23-2007, 02:02 PM
In the universe of baseball. He historically performs better when runners aren't in scoring position.

One of the big reasons why people discount BA is because it gives equal value to both a single and a HR. They should also discount OPS to an extent since it gives the same value to a solo HR as it does a grand slam. Or a GS when you are up 8 to a 2 run HR when you are down one in the 9th.

Stats are great and OPS has extreme value. But it has its flaws just like any stat. They have to be looked at as pieces of the puzzle, not as the be-all, end-all measuring tool.

Adam Dunn w/RISP - .417 OB, .473 SLG, .890 OPS
Adam Dunn career - .379 OB, .512 SLG, .891 OPS

Any other B.S. you'd like invent?

BTW, Dunn's also been extremely unlucky in RISP appearances (.253 BABIP), yet he still grades out as even with his career totals.

Of course the numbers the also show us what anybody with a working set of eyeballs should know -- that other teams pitch around Adam Dunn in RISP situations and try to force someone else to beat them. This is why so many have spent years (pretty much since the day Dunn debuted in the majors) pointing out that he'd best serve the team hitting relatively high in the order. That way he's tougher to pitch around (which will drive up his SLG/RBI totals) and the better quality of hitter behind him can make better use of his OB.

Honestly, this stuff is easily for found public consumption for anyone who cares to deal with facts instead of spewing nonsense out their backsides.

westofyou
04-23-2007, 02:04 PM
Honestly, this stuff is easily for found public consumption for anyone who cares to deal with facts instead of spewing nonsense out their backsides.But it's fun sitting in your own stink.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 02:10 PM
Adam Dunn w/RISP - .417 OB, .473 SLG, .890 OPS
Adam Dunn career - .379 OB, .512 SLG, .891 OPS

Any other B.S. you'd like invent?

BTW, Dunn's also been extremely unlucky in RISP appearances (.253 BABIP), yet he still grades out as even with his career totals.

Of course the numbers the also show us what anybody with a working set of eyeballs should know -- that other teams pitch around Adam Dunn in RISP situations and try to force someone else to beat them. This is why so many have spent years (pretty much since the day Dunn debuted in the majors) pointing out that he'd best serve the team hitting relatively high in the order. That way he's tougher to pitch around (which will drive up his SLG/RBI totals) and the better quality of hitter behind him can make better use of his OB.

Honestly, this stuff is easily for found public consumption for anyone who cares to deal with facts instead of spewing nonsense out their backsides.

Nice to have an adult conversation. Read my posts in their entirety.

And it's pretty hard to be "unlucky" for your career. But anything to show Dunn in a greater light, I guess.

Isn't it amazing? BA means nothing. Ks mean nothing. OBP is king. Defense is overrated. It is possible to be unlucky for your career with RISP, yet BA/RISP doesn't matter because it all evens out in the end.

Total it up and Dunn is one of the best players of all time.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 02:19 PM
But you can't "produce" any runs if the guys hitting in front of you aren't getting on base. You want your run producers hitting in your number four and five spots in the order. Dunn typically bats second, no? Batting order spots one through three's job is to get on base and have guys four and five knock them in. Dunn gets on base. As I look at it, in the manner in which Jerry Narron constructs his lineup, Adam Dunn does his job.

Game after game we're seeing Adam Dunn leave guys in scoring position due to his lousy ABs. I think a previous poster here noted that he had 3 RBIs from his last 16 ABs with RISP.

You putting the cart before the horse. Adam Dunn is hitting 2nd because he has shown himself to be very poor at driving in runs.

George Anderson
04-23-2007, 02:24 PM
Game after game we're seeing Adam Dunn leave guys in scoring position due to his lousy ABs.

Maybe I was dreaming but didnt Dunn have a different approach to hitting during Spring Training?? Instead of swinging from the heels wasn't he trying to make more contact, hit to all fields and was having a decent amount of success doing so??

So did Adam just wake up one morning and say the hell with it I'm going back to my old ways??

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 02:25 PM
I will mail you a dollar if you can explain how that sentence makes the least bit of sense.

Simple. OPS doesn't take into consideration Ks and RBIs.

You can keep your dollar...

VR
04-23-2007, 02:26 PM
Didn't you know that those OPS numbers are artificially inflated by walks and that if he would just swing at more balls he'd have a trazillion RBI but he doesn't because he's too busy thinking about playing nintendo and eating brisket?

mmmm, brisket

M2
04-23-2007, 02:32 PM
Nice to have an adult conversation. Read my posts in their entirety.

I did. It was painful. Talk to me about "adult conversation" when you start doing some basic fact checking.


And it's pretty hard to be "unlucky" for your career. But anything to show Dunn in a greater light, I guess.

BABIP is what it is. Either you understand it or you don't. And, again, even with that, he's still managed to perform as well as he has without RISP. All I'm pointing out is that you're completely confused on this subject and that, on top of that, there's some indications that Dunn should produce even better with RISP in the future. That's actually good news for anyone who purports to be rooting for the Reds.


Isn't it amazing? BA means nothing. Ks mean nothing. OBP is king. Defense is overrated. It is possible to be unlucky for your career with RISP, yet BA/RISP doesn't matter because it all evens out in the end.

Enjoy arguing with the wall? Because that's what you're doing. Dunn produces differently in different situations. It's because pitchers pitch him differently. It's not even particularly difficult to recognize that. Anyone who watches the team's games should know it without ever having to look up a stat. It's that obvious.

Now, a smart team ought to recognize that and make it work for them. Dunn historically hits best at the top of the lineup. For those who want him to get more RBIs, in the five lineup slots where he's got more than 100 career PAs, he's got his best RBI/AB ratio in the #2 slot, along with his best BA (.276), OB (.387) and SLG (.522). Whether you or the Reds ever recognize the obvious is out of my hands.

Dunn has his strengths and his flaws. Good management would maximize the former and minimize the latter.

M2
04-23-2007, 02:39 PM
Simple. OPS doesn't take into consideration Ks and RBIs.

You can keep your dollar...

Simple is right. Now care to explain how the Ks offset the OPS? For instance, lets say those Ks were distributed into a fascinating array of groundballs, flyballs and popouts, would that make any positive or negative difference? And I'm waiting with baited breath to hear about how his OPS totals cost him RBIs (seeing that a high OPS depends mostly on SLG and SLG is the stat that tracks most closely to RBIs).

Why, if I didn't know better I'd get the impression that you were taking a bunch of disjointed concepts and throwing them together to form a completely nonsensical conclusion.

Yachtzee
04-23-2007, 02:39 PM
Dunn has his strengths and his flaws. Good management would maximize the former and minimize the latter.

In the words of the great Arthur Fonzarelli, "Exactamundo."

Heath
04-23-2007, 02:40 PM
I did. It was painful. Talk to me about "adult conversation" when you start doing some basic fact checking.



BABIP is what it is. Either you understand it or you don't. And, again, even with that, he's still managed to perform as well as he has without RISP. All I'm pointing out is that you're completely confused on this subject and that, on top of that, there's some indications that Dunn should produce even better with RISP in the future. That's actually good news for anyone who purports to be rooting for the Reds.



Enjoy arguing with the wall? Because that's what you're doing. Dunn produces differently in different situations. It's because pitchers pitch him differently. It's not even particularly difficult to recognize that. Anyone who watches the team's games should know it without ever having to look up a stat. It's that obvious.

Now, a smart team ought to recognize that and make it work for them. Dunn historically hits best at the top of the lineup. For those who want him to get more RBIs, in the five lineup slots where he's got more than 100 career PAs, he's got his best RBI/AB ratio in the #2 slot, along with his best BA (.276), OB (.387) and SLG (.522). Whether you or the Reds ever recognize the obvious is out of my hands.

Dunn has his strengths and his flaws. Good management would maximize the former and minimize the latter.

Please read the key word of the entire thread that has been bolded for your protection. Players don't make up lineup cards, managers do.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 02:45 PM
Now we're getting somewhere...thanks for that.

I agree that Dunn gets pitched to differently in different situations. Everyone does, not just Adam. Do you think Pujols gets pitched to the same all the time? Manny? Papi?

If Dunn is to be relied upon as the centerpiece of this offense, then he has to adapt with the situation. He can't accept his .220 BA in run scoring situations just because a pitcher is pitching him differently. No one is saying Dunn is awful. He's not. It's the thought that this lineup should and can be built around him for years. It can't.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 02:47 PM
Honestly, this stuff is easily for found public consumption for anyone who cares to deal with facts instead of spewing nonsense out their backsides.

There are those who judge from what they see and those that judge from stats. No one sees more of Adam Dunn than Marty Brennaman and he sees Adam Dunn leaving a lot of folks on base and I tend to agree with him.

That said, let's get down to brass tacks.

1) IMO, Dunn is the biggest offensive threat in this meager lineup

2) He's not worth an 8 figure salary to a $$ challenged franchise

3) He's not even All Star caliber, let alone MVP material

4) I do not want to see the Reds dump him or let him leave via free agency. I want to see them get a load of talent like the Brewers did with Carlos Lee, rather than see him take in $13 mill next year and walk.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 02:49 PM
So did Adam just wake up one morning and say the hell with it I'm going back to my old ways??

Falling back into old habits is nothing new. In fact it is the rule rather than the exception.

BurgervilleBuck
04-23-2007, 02:50 PM
This team misses Rich Aurillia and the pre-'06 Jason LaRue more than it misses Lopez or Kearns, IMO.
I have to agree with you there.



And not just because you're a Whovian.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 02:57 PM
Simple is right. Now care to explain how the Ks offset the OPS? For instance, lets say those Ks were distributed into a fascinating array of groundballs, flyballs and popouts, would that make any positive or negative difference? And I'm waiting with baited breath to hear about how his OPS totals cost him RBIs (seeing that a high OPS depends mostly on SLG and SLG is the stat that tracks most closely to RBIs).

Why, if I didn't know better I'd get the impression that you were taking a bunch of disjointed concepts and throwing them together to form a completely nonsensical conclusion.

My original comment was:


What he gains in OPS he takes away in strike outs and lack of RBIs.

I never said his OPS totals cost him RBIs. So you'll have to continue to hold that baited breath, I guess.

If his Ks were distributed into ground balls, fly balls etc he'd have a chance to drive in some runs. He has no chance when he doesn't make contact

Patrick Bateman
04-23-2007, 03:02 PM
I want to see them get a load of talent like the Brewers did with Carlos Lee, rather than see him take in $13 mill next year and walk.

To be honest, I'm not really sure how getting a platoon left fielder and a good closer is getting a load of talent.

Guys like Mench are very easy to come by. I'm not sure how much of an improvement he is over Cruz is the first place. The only guy they got that really interested me was Cordero. I sure wouldn't be happy if Dunn was traded for a closer and some scraps.

M2
04-23-2007, 03:10 PM
Now we're getting somewhere...thanks for that.

I agree that Dunn gets pitched to differently in different situations. Everyone does, not just Adam. Do you think Pujols gets pitched to the same all the time? Manny? Papi?

If Dunn is to be relied upon as the centerpiece of this offense, then he has to adapt with the situation. He can't accept his .220 BA in run scoring situations just because a pitcher is pitching him differently. No one is saying Dunn is awful. He's not. It's the thought that this lineup should and can be built around him for years. It can't.

Completely backwards thinking. You build your offense around productive players. Dunn's abilities in the #2 hole will make your 3-4-5 hitters more productive because of the extra RBI chances he hands them. And once again, if you want more RBIs out of the guy then stick him where he gets more RBIs and stop being a slave to convention.

I care about maximizing talent so that the lineup can maximize its runs scored. If Adam Dunn has got a .900+ OPS, I don't care where he hits. Once again, his BA in RISP situations will come up even if he does nothing differently because he's been on the short end of the BABIP stick. His BA in all situations could stand improvement and it keeps getting shown to you where his BA is highest. Hit Adam in the #2 slot and you're probably looking at a .260+ BA for the guy no matter what the situation.

Put him where he thrives, stop freaking out about down weeks (he's still out-hitting Albert Pujols for the season) and worry more about the players in the lineup who aren't producing than one of the few who is. He's not Albert Pujols, but without him the Reds possibly would have the worst offense in MLB. With him utilized properly they've got an outside chance of scoring a little more than they allow.

M2
04-23-2007, 03:15 PM
There are those who judge from what they see and those that judge from stats. No one sees more of Adam Dunn than Marty Brennaman and he sees Adam Dunn leaving a lot of folks on base and I tend to agree with him.

Marty Brennaman should be fitted for a drool cup. Most of the posters here have more intelligent things to say about baseball when they're taking a nap than that guy.

So the reality is there's those who judge from what they see, those that judge from stats, those that use all manner of input (e.g. most of us) and those that fall in line behind whoever shouts loudest into a microphone (which basically means they've neither seen nor learned anything).

paintmered
04-23-2007, 03:18 PM
Completely backwards thinking. You build your offense around productive players. Dunn's abilities in the #2 hole will make your 3-4-5 hitters more productive because of the extra RBI chances he hands them. And once again, if you want more RBIs out of the guy then stick him where he gets more RBIs and stop being a slave to convention.

I care about maximizing talent so that the lineup can maximize its runs scored. If Adam Dunn has got a .900+ OPS, I don't care where he hits. Once again, his BA in RISP situations will come up even if he does nothing differently because he's been on the short end of the BABIP stick. His BA in all situations could stand improvement and it keeps getting shown to you where his BA is highest. Hit Adam in the #2 slot and you're probably looking at a .260+ BA for the guy no matter what the situation.

Put him where he thrives, stop freaking out about down weeks (he's still out-hitting Albert Pujols for the season) and worry more about the players in the lineup who aren't producing than one of the few who is. He's not Albert Pujols, but without him the Reds possibly would have the worst offense in MLB. With utilized properly they've got an outside chance of scoring a little more than they allow.


:clap:

M2
04-23-2007, 03:19 PM
If his Ks were distributed into ground balls, fly balls etc he'd have a chance to drive in some runs. He has no chance when he doesn't make contact

He'd also have the chance to ground into more DPs. That's on top of the the real possibility that seeking to make contact for contact's sake (rather than effective contact) would cost him BA, OB and SLG.

Every decent hitting coach in the world espouses that you've got to build on what the hitter does well and yet on this board every year we're treated to an bottomless well of suggestions that the Reds ignore that dictum when it comes to Adam Dunn.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 03:34 PM
To be honest, I'm not really sure how getting a platoon left fielder and a good closer is getting a load of talent.

Guys like Mench are very easy to come by. I'm not sure how much of an improvement he is over Cruz is the first place. The only guy they got that really interested me was Cordero. I sure wouldn't be happy if Dunn was traded for a closer and some scraps.


Baseball Prospectus stated in 2006 that Carlos Lee's most comparable player was Kevin Mench. He did set a major league record last year for consecutive games with a HR (8) for a RH hitter. They also got a couple minor leaguers who may or may not develop into something.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 03:36 PM
He'd also have the chance to ground into more DPs. That's on top of the the real possibility that seeking to make contact for contact's sake (rather than effective contact) would cost him BA, OB and SLG.

Every decent hitting coach in the world espouses that you've got to build on what the hitter does well and yet on this board every year we're treated to an bottomless well of suggestions that the Reds ignore that dictum when it comes to Adam Dunn.

This organization has tried everything, including all sorts of hitting coaches, with all sorts of differing approaches, yet the result is the same.

Patrick Bateman
04-23-2007, 03:39 PM
Every decent hitting coach in the world espouses that you've got to build on what the hitter does well and yet on this board every year we're treated to an bottomless well of suggestions that the Reds ignore that dictum when it comes to Adam Dunn.

This is a very good point.

Anyone who watched Adam Dunn on a regular basis knows that Dunn is a much more effective hitter when he is being patient and waiting for a particlaur pitch (much like just about every hitter).

Since Dunn is not very good at making contact, his best approach is to take pitches that he isn't likely to hit. If he made a concious change where he tries to make more contact, he would probably hit the ball more often, but his ability to walk would severely decrease while his SLG would take a nosedive since he will be swinging at pitches that he isn't likely to handle as well.

As you said, Dunn needs to continue using his same approach where his best assets (patience and power) are maximized. Changing your approach to maximize a worse trait would make Dunn a far less effective hitter. I don't get why people want to change an approach that has been so effective for Dunn for his entire career.

And this approach isn't just for Dunn. For a guy like Vlad Guerrero, I sure wouldn't advise him to start taking more pitches when he has proven over a very long time that he is a MVP calibre hitter by hitting at just about everything. That's an example of a player that would probably decrease his offensive production by looking to take more walks since he has been so effective by putting the ball in play. The key is maximize your strengths and limit your weaknesses.

Patrick Bateman
04-23-2007, 03:47 PM
Baseball Prospectus stated in 2006 that Carlos Lee's most comparable player was Kevin Mench. He did set a major league record last year for consecutive games with a HR (8) for a RH hitter. They also got a couple minor leaguers who may or may not develop into something.

Mench was a pretty awful hitter last season even with the HR binge. The last 2 seasons his OPS has been in the .760ish range (and that was mostly played in hitters parks). For a guy with limited skills in other areas, that simply isn't cutting it, especially for a LF.

The minor league players they got (Nix and Julian Cordero) have less worth than Cruz at this point, albeit Nix is currently injured. Julian Cordero shouldn't be considered very seriously as a prospect, and Nix has already struggled in the majors for lengthy periods because his plate approach has been chewed up by major league pitching.

Cruz hasn't exactly lit up either, but he hasn't had nearly the opportunity that Nix has had.

remdog
04-23-2007, 03:51 PM
Since Dunn is not very good at making contact, his best approach is to take pitches that he isn't likely to hit.

Except that Dunn's problem, and it's been brought up many times before, is that he he takes too many pitches that he can hit and finds himself having to swing at something he can't.

I'm in Dunn's corner and I wouldn't have any easy answer as to where the Reds could replace his power. But, I do understand the frustration in the fact that he's basicaly regressed over the last couple of years. In addition, his growing salary increases the dynamic there.

Sometime soon the Reds are going to have to make a decision on which way they are going to go with Adam. I'm certainly not going to give any odds at this point.

Rem

westofyou
04-23-2007, 03:53 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6136


Traded LF-R Carlos Lee and RF-R Nelson Cruz to the Rangers for RHP Francisco Cordero, OF-R Kevin Mench, CF-L Laynce Nix and LHP Julian Cordero; placed RHP Jose Capellan on the 15-day DL (strained shoulder), retroactive to 7/25; acquired 3B-R David Bell from the Phillies for RHP Wilfrido Laureano. [7/28]

The Brewers are on the fence about what kind of team they are, and now... they're on the fence about what kind of team they want to be. Rather than make a move that helps them now or in the future, Doug Melvin managed to make a deal that does neither. Mench is already 28, only a year and a half younger than Lee, so this isn't even a good exchange in terms of getting some up-and-comer. Disastrously bad deal that this is, the guy with upside in this trade--Cruz--went to Rangers. Maybe this works out if you really believe that Mench can hit outside of Texas, but there isn't a lot of supporting evidence for that, not when he's slugged .503 on his career at home, and .454 on the road.

Where this does work is financially, making this a throwback to... what, the hoary (ahem) days of Sal Bando? After all, even in arbitration, Mench will cost a lot less than signing Lee would have, and Lee rejected what the Brewers felt had to be their final offer ($48 million over four years). There's just about no way that Melvin can get away from paying an aging Geoff Jenkins his $7 million next year, so you can pretty much guarantee that the Brewers will have a weak pair of starting outfielders, Jenkins because age happens, and Mench because Melvin didn't capitalize on the decision to deal Lee. I suppose getting rid of Cruz makes some strange sort of sense, because after all, he'd simply be blocked, again, what with Mench and Jenkins in the way. Yes, that also means that Corey Hart has to wait another year, despite his having more offensive upside than any of these other guys.

Patrick Bateman
04-23-2007, 04:00 PM
Except that Dunn's problem, and it's been brought up many times before, is that he he takes too many pitches that he can hit and finds himself having to swing at something he can't.


I don't really see that as Dunn's main problem. The last couple of years Dunn has seemed more inclined to swing at more pitches in just about every zone (including his 'hot spots')

IMO, it's the pitches on the outside of the plate and in the dirt that he has flailed wildly at with limited success that has attributed to his struggles. I'm not sure if he's trying to quiet his critics by swinging more often, or if it's an approach led by the hitting coaches of the last few seasons.

I underatnd that people can see him as being overlly patient, but that approach has led to his best success. Even though he does let some hittable pitches by, he still seems to get more benefit from taking pitches he is unsure about. What I'm saying is that I think the increased amount of walks by being ultra-patient outweighs the hits lost by letting good pitches go by without a swing.

Strikes Out Looking
04-23-2007, 04:05 PM
Are Andi McDowell and Bill Murray in this thread? I think I've read it before. And I think I've posted the following before:

The problem with Adam Dunn is that when he's on a tear, he is great. And then he goes completely cold--and we all become very frustrated, because we've seen what potential he has when he's hot.

Unfortunately, he's picked a time to go cold when most of the rest of the team is also cold, just like last September. I don't know what the answer is. In my perfect world, he's a Red for his career and ends with over 500 homers. But my perfect world doesn't have salary implications or the fact that the Reds have a left fielder that really is better suited to DH.

Oh well, carry on. I'm quite sure we'll see a similar thread in another couple of months and then one in the spring of '08. If Adam is traded, I'm sure we'll see the thread on Dodger.zone or Angel.zone or something like that.

remdog
04-23-2007, 04:14 PM
What I'm saying is that I think the increased amount of walks by being ultra-patient outweighs the hits lost by letting good pitches go by without a swing.

I appreciate your opinion but mine would be the opposite, especially with runners on base. A pitch in the strikezone that a hitter can handle (which is the premis I made above) should be driven, not taken.

Either way, at this point in AD's career I am doubtful that he will/can change so I think it's a case of "whatcha' see is whatcha' got". (famous shrug) :)

Rem

hebroncougar
04-23-2007, 04:16 PM
The thing the worries me........is take a look at some of the Reds best prospects in the minor leagues, Bruce and Stubbs. Both of them strike out at alarming rates as well. I know they are young, and could improve, but I would think that if I'm the reds GM, see some of this mess at the major league level, I'm doubly telling my minor league instructors to curb this problem as the players make their way through the organization.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 05:00 PM
The thing the worries me........is take a look at some of the Reds best prospects in the minor leagues, Bruce and Stubbs. Both of them strike out at alarming rates as well. I know they are young, and could improve, but I would think that if I'm the reds GM, see some of this mess at the major league level, I'm doubly telling my minor league instructors to curb this problem as the players make their way through the organization.

The scary part is Dunn was not a .220 hitter with tons of strike outs in the minors.

Kc61
04-23-2007, 05:12 PM
Jay Bruce doesn't strike out that much. He struck out fewer than one in four at bats last year. Stubbs is just starting out.

As for Dunn, his strikeout numbers this year are off the chart high. Over his career he strikes out (based on official at bats) between 30 and 34.6 percent of the time. This year, 38.6. His walk rate is way down. And he is hitting a lot more ground balls than fly balls, which is unusual and probably not good in his case.

He may be hurt, but my guess is that these numbers will correct. Because of his hot start the first week, his overall season stats (BA, OBP, OPS) aren't terrible and I think he will pick things up on this next trip, if healthy.

I think the Reds offense will pick up generally, but ultimately they need to get a couple of true third and fourth place hitters. Steady, top of the line guys. Right now, in this organization, the two guys I can see in that role are Bruce and Hamilton. Dunn is not consistent enough; Griffey is just not that type hitter now.

The Reds' hitting will get better this year, but still they are missing some important offensive pieces.

Fullboat
04-23-2007, 05:24 PM
The Reds are 9-10 in April people its not the end of the world.
We have May,June,July,August,September and a week of
October 19-162=143 games left.Our players don't even have
80 AB yet.Can it get worse? sure :D but I believe the Reds will
improve from last year.:thumbup:

Quit sucking up all the fun out of baseball.:D

hebroncougar
04-23-2007, 05:32 PM
Jay Bruce doesn't strike out that much. He struck out fewer than one in four at bats last year. Stubbs is just starting out.

As for Dunn, his strikeout numbers this year are off the chart high. Over his career he strikes out (based on official at bats) between 30 and 34.6 percent of the time. This year, 38.6. His walk rate is way down. And he is hitting a lot more ground balls than fly balls, which is unusual and probably not good in his case.

He may be hurt, but my guess is that these numbers will correct. Because of his hot start the first week, his overall season stats (BA, OBP, OPS) aren't terrible and I think he will pick things up on this next trip, if healthy.

I think the Reds offense will pick up generally, but ultimately they need to get a couple of true third and fourth place hitters. Steady, top of the line guys. Right now, in this organization, the two guys I can see in that role are Bruce and Hamilton. Dunn is not consistent enough; Griffey is just not that type hitter now.

The Reds' hitting will get better this year, but still they are missing some important offensive pieces.

106 k's last year in about 480 PA's, you are right, it's less than 1/4 of the time, but couple that with the fact that he only drew 44 walks, and that is not good plate discipline. Now granted, he was young for A ball, even low A ball, but it's something that the Reds need to address, as an organization as a whole, and it needs to change. You can't strike out 1200 times a year as a team and win consistently unless you are getting on base at an enormous rate and/or hit a large, large amount of home runs.

hebroncougar
04-23-2007, 05:34 PM
The Reds are 9-10 in April people its not the end of the world.
We have May,June,July,August,September and a week of
October 19-162=143 games left.Our players don't even have
80 AB yet.Can it get worse? sure :D but I believe the Reds will
improve from last year.:thumbup:

Quit sucking up all the fun out of baseball.:D

I don't think there is any question about that. It's way, way early to draw conclusions on this year's team yet. Encarnacion will hit, Ross will hit some (not as good as last year IMO). The questions are Phillips, how much Griffey will play, whether or not Hamilton can be good on a consistent basis, is Lohse a mirage, or is he for real, and is the bullpen good/bad/or average?

Falls City Beer
04-23-2007, 06:02 PM
What's a bit distressing to me is how bad this team is despite the fact that Narron hasn't been glaringly bad in his deployment of players thus far.

I actually think it could be worse.

Always Red
04-23-2007, 06:16 PM
I don't think there is any question about that. It's way, way early to draw conclusions on this year's team yet. Encarnacion will hit, Ross will hit some (not as good as last year IMO). The questions are Phillips, how much Griffey will play, whether or not Hamilton can be good on a consistent basis, is Lohse a mirage, or is he for real, and is the bullpen good/bad/or average?

I certainly hope that you're right, and I don't mean to be a downer or suck enjoyment out of the game :D but there are three guys who are serious question marks to me, at this point. I'm not sure why Edwin gets a pass from many here, although I do like him very much, and hope that he rights the ship.

Here are some career #'s: BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

Edwin Encarnacion 675 AB .255/.336/.439/.775
Brandon Phillips 1040AB .243/.291/.379/.670
Dave Ross 709 AB .224/.305/.450/.755

If these three guys hit up to their usual career standards, the Reds are still going to be hurting. If the three of them duplicate their career years of last year, then they will have held up their end of the deal.

The first thing I noticed is that none of these three fellows have had much experience, really. That in itself is something to keep in mind.

I enjoyed the Dunn back and forth, but he surely is not the cause of the lack of Reds offense. I really do love Marty, but he is just plain wrong when it comes to Dunn, over the long haul. Sure, he could do some things better, and the one point that I absolutely agree with is that he has shown no improvement since his third year in the league. We all wish he could do this or that better, but taking him out of the lineup makes this lineup much worse than leaving him in there.

remdog
04-23-2007, 06:30 PM
By AlwaysRed:

Edwin Encarnacion 675 AB .255/.336/.439/.775
Brandon Phillips 1040AB .243/.291/.379/.670
Dave Ross 709 AB .224/.305/.450/.755

The first thing I noticed is that none of these three fellows have had much experience, really.

AR:

I would say that Ross has had a lot of experience---on the bench and then being jettisoned away as soon as possible. He is the one player of the three that I have been dubious aout.

As for Phillips and EE, I think that their career progression has shown that they will hit and I'm not too worried about them.

Those were also my thoughts on all three players during the off season.

Rem

savafan
04-23-2007, 08:27 PM
I've come to the conclusion that Reds fans don't deserve to watch Adam Dunn play baseball on a daily basis, and that's sad.

Caveat Emperor
04-23-2007, 09:37 PM
The thing the worries me........is take a look at some of the Reds best prospects in the minor leagues, Bruce and Stubbs. Both of them strike out at alarming rates as well.

If Bruce & Stubbs continue to hit, does it really matter?

I tend to look at it this way -- you give me a .380+ OBP (like Bruce has done thus far in Single-A), those other PAs are yours and I could care less how you make your outs.

BUTLER REDSFAN
04-23-2007, 09:51 PM
Right or wrong, it's not his place to make those comments.

????So is he just supposed to be a homer?? Since when cant someone make an opinion?? Are Narron,Krivsky and Castellini the only people allowed to say anything about Dunn? Sorry people, with or without the vaunted Adam Dunn this team has been near last place the last several years. I'm sure his home runs probably kept us completely out of the cellar but his incessant strikeouts with runners on has kept us from ever going any higher.

AtomicDumpling
04-23-2007, 09:55 PM
Excellent data mining M2. I love your post. That should be the ultimate victory for the pro-Dunn side of the discussion, but it won't be I am sure. LOL

I bet Adam Dunn is hoping the Reds don't pick up his option for 2008. He will make more than $13.5 million on the open market as a free agent.

I wouldn't blame Dunn for wanting out of Cincinatti. He is by far the Reds most productive hitter and yet he is probably the second most unpopular player on the team. You get to guess the most unpopular one. ;)

Adam Dunn produced the most runs of any Red last year (again) by an extremely wide margin. Dunn produced 191 runs + RBI last year. The next best total was Brandon Phillips with only 140. Ryan Freel only produced 94 runs but everybody loves him.

The goal of the game is to put runs on the scoreboard. Adam Dunn does that far better than any other Red, so who cares how much he strikes out?

If you want to criticize a player you should find someone more deserving than Adam Dunn, you have plenty to choose from.

cincrazy
04-23-2007, 10:51 PM
Here'a a question to the Dunn folks, kind of separate from the current argument, but interesting nonetheless to discuss: is Adam Dunn, if he continues his current career path, a Hall of Famer? I say no, for the simple fact that when I think of the best player's in today's game, I don't think of Adam Dunn. He may very well end up with well over 500 homers, but I think in today's day and age, that shouldnt' count for as much as it used to.

AtomicDumpling
04-23-2007, 10:57 PM
No he isn't a future Hall of Famer. He is not even one of the best players in the league. But he is the best hitter the Reds have on their team. Therefore people shouldn't hate him like they do.

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 10:58 PM
Here'a a question to the Dunn folks, kind of separate from the current argument, but interesting nonetheless to discuss: is Adam Dunn, if he continues his current career path, a Hall of Famer? I say no, for the simple fact that when I think of the best player's in today's game, I don't think of Adam Dunn. He may very well end up with well over 500 homers, but I think in today's day and age, that shouldnt' count for as much as it used to.

http://www.eas.muohio.edu/organizations/tappi/JohnandFire.jpg

edabbs44
04-23-2007, 10:59 PM
No he isn't a future Hall of Famer. He is not even one of the best players in the league. But he is the best hitter the Reds have on their team. Therefore people shouldn't hate him like they do.

A few years ago, Jimmy Haynes was this team's best pitcher. I hated him.

Sea Ray
04-23-2007, 11:11 PM
Here'a a question to the Dunn folks, kind of separate from the current argument, but interesting nonetheless to discuss: is Adam Dunn, if he continues his current career path, a Hall of Famer? I say no, for the simple fact that when I think of the best player's in today's game, I don't think of Adam Dunn. He may very well end up with well over 500 homers, but I think in today's day and age, that shouldnt' count for as much as it used to.

If he's lucky he'll make the Reds Hall of Fame. He's not even an All Star. He's not bound for Cooperstown. But few are. It wouldn't be fair to hold anyone to that standard.

savafan
04-24-2007, 12:00 AM
Wow, he's only 27 years old. We can't even say right now that Albert Pujols is a definate lock for the HOF.

BurgervilleBuck
04-24-2007, 09:55 AM
We might as well ask if the bat boy will someday be in Cooperstown (provided he makes it into the majors).

I'm not Dunn's biggest fan either but I'm not ready to bail on him quite yet. Maybe it's the perception that he has no trade value but I think any trade made would be disastrous and probably bite the Reds in the keister. Probably in more ways than one.

Dunn's back spasms could be a reason why he's under producing. Or maybe it's just an excuse. I do know that he made a hell of a catch during Sunday's game that I don't think the 2006 Dunn would've made so I'm still on the fence to whether he's really committed to be a good player (contract year conspiracy theories notwithstanding).

Wait & see.

Chip R
04-24-2007, 10:17 AM
????So is he just supposed to be a homer?? Since when cant someone make an opinion?? Are Narron,Krivsky and Castellini the only people allowed to say anything about Dunn? Sorry people, with or without the vaunted Adam Dunn this team has been near last place the last several years. I'm sure his home runs probably kept us completely out of the cellar but his incessant strikeouts with runners on has kept us from ever going any higher.


Riiiiiight.

http://www.masterpiecepumpkins.com/Graphics/DrEvil%20_orig.JPG

Raisor
04-24-2007, 05:56 PM
M2 is my hero.

Just sayin.

M2
04-24-2007, 06:21 PM
M2 is my hero.

Just sayin.

http://www.stevestiles.com/cerebus.gif

CWRed
04-24-2007, 08:55 PM
David Ross a triple play edwin batting terribly Dunn just has bad this year has last year what needs to be done we need an aggresive manager I think.


I'm still trying to figure out where all the puntuation went? Did Adam Dunn steal it and if he did, why? You would think he would try to figure the sentence out instead of just letting it go. Loafer! I think the Reds might want to look at replacing Adam Dunn with Juan Castro. At least when he swings and misses, he looks like he means it. :D