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View Full Version : Cincinnati Reds - Gloom & Doom and a bright future



Stingray
04-24-2007, 12:25 PM
Despite the title Iíve given this thread there are two reasons I havenít yet given up on the 2007 Reds, First itís hardly possible the hitting and fielding weíve seen in the last 14 games can continue all year. Secondly the starting pitching has been remarkably good so far. So, if the hitting and fielding return to expected norms and the starting pitching doesnít, thereís hope.

Regardless of what happens the rest of this year, I havenít been as optimistic about the near term future of this club since the days of the BRM.

1. Minor leagues - Iíve been a Reds fan since 1939 and Iíve never seen a Reds farm system as deep and talented as the current one. Listed below are players in the farm system, in no particular order(Iím sure Iíve missed a few), who have the potential to be real contributors at the ML level. A dozen of them have all star potential. Sure they wonít all realize their potential but if even one third do so weíll have a great influx of young talent to the Reds w/i 1-3 years. In addition, our extra high draft choices this year could keep the reinforcements coming.


R. Asadoorian
Johnny Cueto
Josh Roenicke
Drew Stubbs
Daryl Thompson
Bobby Livingston
Jared Burton
Juan Francisco
Jay Bruce
Carlos Fisher
Chris Valaika
Joey Votto's
Phil Dumatrait
Rafael Gonzalez
Logan Parker
Brad Salmon
Calvin Medlock
Homer Bailey
Richie Gardner
Milton Loo
Travis Wood
Sean Watson
Chris Dickerson
B.J. Szymanski
Josh Ravin
Danny Dorn
Tyler Pelland
Sam LeCure
James Avery
Camilo Vazquez




2. Young core - although everyone is currently struggling on the ML level, the reds have a young core most of whom I expect to be very good for several years(see below).


Josh Hamilton
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Todd Coffey
Jon Coutlangus
Edwin Encarnacion
Brandon Phillips
Chris Denorfia
Bill Bray
Adam Dunn(? Age, salary)
David Ross(? Who is the real David Ross)



3. Salary relief - Between Griffey, Milton, our senior citizen bullpen, and Dunn(if we donít resign him) the Reds have more than $20M($30 if we let Dunn go) of salary relief in the next two years which can be used to plug any holes our core and minor leagues can't fill(catcher?)



At least for me, the agony of the Reds current streak of poor play is tempered considerably by what looks like a bright future.

zombie-a-go-go
04-24-2007, 12:39 PM
At least for me, the agony of the Reds current streak of poor play is tempered considerably by what looks like a bright future.

So bright one might feel compelled, even, to wear shades.

The hitting isn't this bad and the bullpen has already reverted to form/regressed to their mean. I expect the club to play better than they have thus far, but not much better.

rotnoid
04-24-2007, 12:45 PM
3. Salary relief - Between Griffey, Milton, our senior citizen bullpen, and Dunn(if we donít resign him) the Reds have more than $20M($30 if we let Dunn go) of salary relief in the next two years which can be used to plug any holes our core and minor leagues can't fill(catcher?)



At least for me, the agony of the Reds current streak of poor play is tempered considerably by what looks like a bright future.

Great post. It's nice to see the bright side. In regards to number 3 above, let's hope they don't go Mike Brown and claim the salary relief has already been eaten into by extending Harang and Arroyo. While these contracts will eat into the available dollars some, there should still be some money available to go fill some holes. Not to mention the 4 million that comes off the books when Lohse leaves (either via trade or FA).

Rotater Cuff
04-24-2007, 12:55 PM
3. Salary relief - Between Griffey, Milton, our senior citizen bullpen, and Dunn(if we donít resign him) the Reds have more than $20M($30 if we let Dunn go) of salary relief in the next two years which can be used to plug any holes our core and minor leagues can't fill(catcher?)

Don't think griffey will be much relief. Believe alot of his salary was backloaded -we may be suffering that one for 16 or so years

Stingray
04-24-2007, 01:08 PM
Don't think griffey will be much relief. Believe alot of his salary was backloaded -we may be suffering that one for 16 or so years


I'm pretty sure the Reds have been funding that deferred salary all along.
By funding the deferred $ in an annunity it cost a lot less.

rotnoid
04-24-2007, 01:11 PM
I'm pretty sure the Reds have been funding that deferred salary all along.
By funding the deferred $ in an annunity it cost a lot less.

That's the party line anyway. They always claim the whole thing towards the year's salary numbers, so it's reasonable to assume they've been funding it.

foltza
04-24-2007, 02:21 PM
in regards to our deep farm system; how well were we ranked amongst the 30 MLB teams in this area by the perceived experts in their last rounds of rankings?

ochoa30
04-24-2007, 02:33 PM
in regards to our deep farm system; how well were we ranked amongst the 30 MLB teams in this area by the perceived experts in their last rounds of rankings?

12th out of the 30 teams by baseball america. Up from 30 last year. Obviously a huge jump.

bucksfan2
04-24-2007, 02:33 PM
I agree with you assesment that help is coming. I just wonder how helpful that help will be. The reds entire future is resting on a whole lot of unknowns. For the future of this club the reds need Baily, Bruce, and Votto to live up to their hype. If they do then this club could be scary in the future. What organizational talent does is make it easier to trade off players who are not playing. Look at the indians run in the late 90's and the quality of players they were able to trade becaue of the players they had. For example if Valakia becomes the real deal then the reds would be able to move Phillips in the future. Or maybe Juan Francisco becomes the air apparent to 3b the reds can move EE if his value is high. This can happen vice versa if the reds are set for the next 5 year at a position they can trade one of their prospects for the present.

Stingray
04-24-2007, 02:41 PM
in regards to our deep farm system; how well were we ranked amongst the 30 MLB teams in this area by the perceived experts in their last rounds of rankings?


I think the last rating I saw was around 16 but we're outperforming expectations this year. It will probably rise unless our guys fall on their collective faces.

Three years ago any of the following would qualify as our best prospect by many here at Redszone and this group doesn't even include our top 3 - Bailey, Votto, or Bruce.

Drew Stubbs
Daryl Thompson
Bobby Livingston
Carlos Fisher
Chris Valaika
Phil Dumatrait

Falls City Beer
04-24-2007, 02:51 PM
Any team, no matter how awful, is not further than a couple of seasons from greatness. Teams can be and have been turned around in two seasons; and if a team isn't turned around completely, they should be very, very close.

If a team isn't performing or isn't close, then the GM of that team is underperforming or failing. Two years is an eternity in MLB. Particularly in this age of relative parity.

bucksfan2
04-24-2007, 03:01 PM
Any team, no matter how awful, is not further than a couple of seasons from greatness. Teams can be and have been turned around in two seasons; and if a team isn't turned around completely, they should be very, very close.

If a team isn't performing or isn't close, then the GM of that team is underperforming or failing. Two years is an eternity in MLB. Particularly in this age of relative parity.

Tell that to the reds, pittsburgh, tampa, kc, baltimore, etc.

Stingray
04-24-2007, 03:02 PM
Any team, no matter how awful, is not further than a couple of seasons from greatness. Teams can be and have been turned around in two seasons; and if a team isn't turned around completely, they should be very, very close.

If a team isn't performing or isn't close, then the GM of that team is underperforming or failing. Two years is an eternity in MLB. Particularly in this age of relative parity.


Not all teams will see a $20M+ drop in payroll in 2 years or have the number of quality prospects the Reds currently have.

Also I'm certianly not claiming the future is assured. I'm just pointing out there are reasons to be optimistic which can be easily forgotten when things look bleak.

durl
04-24-2007, 03:05 PM
I really don't see a need for gloom and doom. The season's only 3 weeks old.

They've had a bad week offensively but they'll get it in gear.

Falls City Beer
04-24-2007, 03:08 PM
Tell that to the reds, pittsburgh, tampa, kc, baltimore, etc.

As I said, the good news is that ANY team is not further than two years from greatness.

The bad news is that you have to have a great GM.

Stingray
04-24-2007, 03:14 PM
I really don't see a need for gloom and doom. The season's only 3 weeks old.

They've had a bad week offensively but they'll get it in gear.


I agree, as I tried to point out the "gloom and doom" wasn't my feeling - it was more a reflection of the mood on the board, especially in the game threads.

redsmetz
04-24-2007, 04:04 PM
As I said, the good news is that ANY team is not further than two years from greatness.

The bad news is that you have to have a great GM.

And I think many here would disagree with your inference that we don't have a great GM - I'm not sure I'm ready to crown him "great", but I think he's been good thus far (not without some slipping), but I like the strategy that he seems to be undertaking. Two years will be 2008 and I think it is not out of the realm of possibility that we're in very good shape next year.

REDREAD
04-25-2007, 09:45 AM
3. Salary relief - Between Griffey, Milton, our senior citizen bullpen, and Dunn(if we donít resign him) the Reds have more than $20M($30 if we let Dunn go) of salary relief in the next two years which can be used to plug any holes our core and minor leagues can't fill(catcher?)
.

I'm guessing that 30 million won't go very far in 2 years if you have to replace a starting pitcher, two run producing OF, and 2-3 relief pitchers..
Hopefully Wayne will be gone by then. If he's still here, he'll just sign more aged, over the hill players.

REDREAD
04-25-2007, 09:52 AM
Not all teams will see a $20M+ drop in payroll in 2 years or have the number of quality prospects the Reds currently have.
.

Wayne had over 20 million to spend in making over the team for 2007. Here's how he spent it:

2 million Cormier
2 million Conine
4 million to extend Lohse
4 million Gonzo
5 million for Stanton and Weathers.
1 million Castro
1.2 million Sarloos
3 million to get rid of LaRue
Resigned Ross and Valentine..

Not saying that all these signings were bad, but we've already seen what Wayne can do with 20+ million..

Stingray
04-25-2007, 10:34 AM
Wayne had over 20 million to spend in making over the team for 2007. Here's how he spent it:

2 million Cormier
2 million Conine
4 million to extend Lohse
4 million Gonzo
5 million for Stanton and Weathers.
1 million Castro
1.2 million Sarloos
3 million to get rid of LaRue
Resigned Ross and Valentine..

Not saying that all these signings were bad, but we've already seen what Wayne can do with 20+ million..

That's where point 1 in my original post comes in to play. All the fill in types should be covered by low cost players from w/i our own system and replacing guys like the ones above could add another $20M to be available for 1 or 2 quality FA.

As far as replacing "starting pitcher, two run producing OF, and 2-3 relief pitchers" how about Bailey, Dumatrait, Bruce, Stubbs, etc

REDREAD
04-25-2007, 01:00 PM
That's where point 1 in my original post comes in to play. All the fill in types should be covered by low cost players from w/i our own system and replacing guys like the ones above could add another $20M to be available for 1 or 2 quality FA.

As far as replacing "starting pitcher, two run producing OF, and 2-3 relief pitchers" how about Bailey, Dumatrait, Bruce, Stubbs, etc

I agree, if all the youngsters pan out, we're in great shape..

However, it's a bit overoptimistic to expect all the top prospects to make it.

A realistic goal is that a farm system produces each year :
1 everday player or starting pitcher
and
one bench guy or bullpen arm


.. Even that's pretty optimistic.