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membengal
04-24-2007, 02:00 PM
...they should go after (see below for three important disclaimers):

_______________ (fill in the blank)

For my part, IF they were to entertain such a move, I would be hoping a thumping right-handed stick and solid young starting pitching prospect would be in the return. If they could talk KC into it, Alex Gordon/Zack Grienke, for instance (or Luke Hochevar if you prefer). Or if they could talk LAA into it, Brandon Wood and one of their pitching prospects. Something along those lines. I would want a couple of players with massive upside who are major league ready now. I think, if WK deals Dunn (or entertains dealing Dunn), that should be the bottom line for any such discussions.

What I am curious about is what some of the more level-headed types on this part of the board think the proper return would be for someone like Dunn. It's a question worth musing over, especially in light of how most of this board (including me) feels about the return that AK and Felipe brought a year ago.


* Disclaimer 1: This is NOT a bash Adam Dunn thread. I think he is spectacularly undervalued amongst Reds fans. Without question.

** Disclaimer 2: I am NOT advocating they deal him, just wondering what a realistic return for him might be. This is prompted in part by that insane Dunn for Tori Hunter thread idea on Reds Live. My soul still weeps over that suggestion.

*** Disclaimer 3: If I missed a similar thread on this of recent vintage, I deeply apologize, and please merge these ramblings therein if so, mods.

Jpup
04-24-2007, 02:09 PM
I would be too highly upset for, at least, a month to even consider what they got in return. Other than that, I would really half to think about it. There probably aren't 15 players I would rather have than Adam Dunn, seriously.

edabbs44
04-24-2007, 02:10 PM
Let the freaking out begin.

I would go after a package of young players. Like a ML ready starter, a minor league reliever with some upside and a minor league bat. I wouldn't want a trade with one key guy, since injuries do happen and I would need pitching in any deal involving Dunn. I wouldn't want to see my one pitcher blow out his elbow and we end up with nada.

membengal
04-24-2007, 02:13 PM
I would be too highly upset for, at least, a month to even consider what they got in return. Other than that, I would really half to think about it. There probably aren't 15 players I would rather have than Adam Dunn, seriously.

Again, I hear you. But, putting that aside, seriously, I am curious about what you think a return should be. There are no untouchables on this roster right now, in theory. Looking for a grown-up discussion about what he might (or should) fetch.

Edabbs...I designate this as a NON-freaking out thread.

One other thought from me, Craig Monroe/Andrew Miller (detroit's #1 last year---unless Miller can't be dealt yet, don't know that part of baseball's rules well enough)...

Jpup
04-24-2007, 02:33 PM
Again, I hear you. But, putting that aside, seriously, I am curious about what you think a return should be. There are no untouchables on this roster right now, in theory. Looking for a grown-up discussion about what he might (or should) fetch.

Edabbs...I designate this as a NON-freaking out thread.

One other thought from me, Craig Monroe/Andrew Miller (detroit's #1 last year---unless Miller can't be dealt yet, don't know that part of baseball's rules well enough)...

that's strange, I was thinking Andrew Miller as well. How about Dunn for Miller, Brandon Inge, and a low level prospect? You could put EdE at 1st or left and Inge at 3rd. That seriously hampers the offense though.

rdiersin
04-24-2007, 02:36 PM
Honestly, if the Reds were to trade Dunn for prospects, then I don't think it would matter whether or not they got position or pitching prospects, because it would almost have to signal other moves since he is such a large part of this offense. Without Dunn, this team has a much smaller, if any at all, chance to compete, and more moves should be made.

However, here is my thought to the return, and the Reds would have to add to this, Dunn and PTBL to Arizona for Hairston and Carlos Gonzalez. I am higher than some on Gonzalez. Would prefer Chris Young, but I do like Gonzalez. Helps the Diamondbacks with Dunn in their lineup, but they also have Carlos Quentin, so possibilities of this deal happening are slim.

Benihana
04-24-2007, 02:43 PM
To LAA, I would trade him for Brandon Wood and John Lackey.
To COL, I would consider trading him for Troy Tulowitzki and Jeff Francis/Jason Hirsh. (Can you imagine how many HRs AD would hit in COL?!)
To DET, I would trade him for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (but you'd have to wait until June)
To TB, I would trade him for BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir (now maybe I'm getting a little greedy...)

Jpup
04-24-2007, 02:44 PM
To LAA, I would trade him for Brandon Wood and John Lackey.
To COL, I would consider trading him for Troy Tulowitzki and Jeff Francis/Jason Hirsh. (Can you imagine how many HRs AD would hit in COL?!)
To DET, I would trade him for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (but you'd have to wait until June)
To TB, I would trade him for BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir (now maybe I'm getting a little greedy...)

I don't believe any of those teams would make those moves.

flyer85
04-24-2007, 02:45 PM
... they should go after quality, not quantity. Exactly the opposite approach of "the trade".

CTA513
04-24-2007, 02:47 PM
Didn't the Tigers want a left handed power bat last year?

jojo
04-24-2007, 02:52 PM
that's strange, I was thinking Andrew Miller as well. How about Dunn for Miller, Brandon Inge, and a low level prospect? You could put EdE at 1st or left and Inge at 3rd. That seriously hampers the offense though.

I'm pretty sure the Tigers would laugh off the offer to trade Dunn for Miller straightup....

jojo
04-24-2007, 02:55 PM
To LAA, I would trade him for Brandon Wood and John Lackey.

OMG that's so NOT going to happen.


To COL, I would consider trading him for Troy Tulowitzki and Jeff Francis/Jason Hirsh. (Can you imagine how many HRs AD would hit in COL?!)

OMG that's so NOT going to happen.


To DET, I would trade him for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (but you'd have to wait until June)

OMG that's so NOT going to happen.


To TB, I would trade him for BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir (now maybe I'm getting a little greedy...)

OMG that's so NOT going to happen.

flyer85
04-24-2007, 02:56 PM
at this point Dunn doesn't have a lot of trade value. WK would do well to get one good prospect. If he is dealt, this is his walk year, lessening his value. Obviously from a talent perspective it would cause a downgrade in the short-term so I doubt Wayne would entertain it until he determines the Reds are out of the race.

texasdave
04-24-2007, 02:57 PM
AD back home to the Astros for Hunter Pence and Troy Patten. The hometown team might go for that. And with the money saved in salary the Reds could get them a free-agent stick.

zombie-a-go-go
04-24-2007, 03:00 PM
OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.


I think someone spilled some soda in your keyboard; your "OMG that's so NOT going to happen" macro is stuck.

New board'll only set you back about 10 bones, 'case you're concerned it'll cost too much to replace.

Falls City Beer
04-24-2007, 03:00 PM
at this point Dunn doesn't have a lot of trade value. WK would do well to get one good prospect. If he is dealt, this is his walk year, lessening his value. Obviously from a talent perspective it would cause a downgrade in the short-term so I doubt Wayne would entertain it until he determines the Reds are out of the race.


The Reds ARE out of the race. Wayne should proceed accordingly.

Benihana
04-24-2007, 03:02 PM
OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.



OMG that's so NOT going to happen.


I kind of feel sorry for you that you had to take the time to do that individually. Obviously my post was made tongue-in-cheek, in that I wouldn't trade Dunn for the return that he would realistically yield at the present time. No need to nitpick the way you do.

Edd Roush
04-24-2007, 03:12 PM
My standards for a return are a bit lower than others on the board, although mine are very particular, even though I still think Dunn is a very important part of this team.

I want a relief pitcher who is younger than 28 years old, with a certified heater (94+) and a great out pitch. This is something the Reds really lack right now. This RP would have to have a track record of success in the majors and would be a consensus pick on the board to step into the closer role.

I would also want a right-handed bat that can hit for power and average. An above-average hitter who could step in and hit successfully between Hamilton and Griffey on an everyday basis.

At this point, I would get whatever else is undervalued in the other team's minor league system.

I don't know who exactly (name-wise) I would target, but these specifications could be a good guideline.

KoryMac5
04-24-2007, 03:20 PM
The Reds ARE out of the race. Wayne should proceed accordingly.

Unfortunately you are never out of the race in the NL central where 85 wins will probably net you the playoffs. The Reds I believe will know before the AS break if they have a team that can get close to 85 wins or not. Than I think you will see some trades go down, JR to a contender and Dunn out to the left coast to either of the LA teams.

TeamSelig
04-24-2007, 03:20 PM
I'd trade him for Lincecum or Broxton/Billingsley + Ethier

jojo
04-24-2007, 03:27 PM
I think someone spilled some soda in your keyboard; your "OMG that's so NOT going to happen" macro is stuck.

New board'll only set you back about 10 bones, 'case you're concerned it'll cost too much to replace.

I'm on a laptop.... :cool:

jojo
04-24-2007, 03:28 PM
Obviously my post was made tongue-in-cheek

Just as obviously, so was mine.

jojo
04-24-2007, 03:32 PM
Unfortunately you are never out of the race in the NL central where 85 wins will probably net you the playoffs. The Reds I believe will know before the AS break if they have a team that can get close to 85 wins or not. Than I think you will see some trades go down, JR to a contender and Dunn out to the left coast to either of the LA teams.

As bad as the homestand was a good roadtrip will get people believing again...

I wonder if the Reds truly will be able to tell by the allstar break. I still think this team will hover somewhere around .500. If no one runs away with the division, the Reds could be 5 under and still legitimately feel they should hang in there.

flyer85
04-24-2007, 03:40 PM
The Reds ARE out of the race. Wayne should proceed accordingly.That may be true based on talent but I don't think the GM will concede just yet. It would raise a huge red flag saying "what the hell did I do in the off-season"

M2
04-24-2007, 03:42 PM
If you trade Dunn right now, it's a white flag move. No one's going to give you a quality major leaguer in return for him at this time, reason being that any team acquiring Dunn right now would be loading up for 2007.

So we're almost by definition talking about restocking deals here. And if you're going to restock, then the middle of the diamond is where the team should be looking - pitcher, catcher, shortstop, centerfielder.

Teams that might want a big LF bat this year (with something to offer) include:

Braves - Yunel Escobar (SS), Kyle Davies (P), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Dan Smith (P)
Cardinals - Colby Rasmus (OF), Jaime Garcia (P), Bryan Anderson (C)
Indians - Adam Miller (P), Chuck Lofgren (P), Trevor Crowe (OF), Bryan Barton (OF)
Angels - Erick Aybar (SS), Brandon Wood (SS/3B), Jeff Mathis (C), Sean Rodriguez (SS), Nick Adenhart (P)

That's just a few teams that might have what the Reds want, don't read the above as trade proposals. The Phillies, Tigers and A's would probably also be interested, but I'm not sure they fit in terms of making a deal. For instance, what would the A's be able to kick in beyond Kurt Suzuki?

Chip R
04-24-2007, 03:46 PM
AD back home to the Astros for Hunter Pence and Troy Patten. The hometown team might go for that. And with the money saved in salary the Reds could get them a free-agent stick.


Where would he play in HOU? Berkman is at 1st and they just signed Lee to play LF.

redsmetz
04-24-2007, 03:46 PM
at this point Dunn doesn't have a lot of trade value. WK would do well to get one good prospect. If he is dealt, this is his walk year, lessening his value. Obviously from a talent perspective it would cause a downgrade in the short-term so I doubt Wayne would entertain it until he determines the Reds are out of the race.

This is not Dunn's walk year. The club holds an option for 2008 and it would transfer. Lately some option years become automatic with a trade, but Cot's doesn't mention that for Dunn. AD at $13 Million next year will look like a deal.

rdiersin
04-24-2007, 03:49 PM
This is not Dunn's walk year. The club holds an option for 2008 and it would transfer. Lately some option years become automatic with a trade, but Cot's doesn't mention that for Dunn. AD at $13 Million next year will look like a deal.

IIRC, Dunn's option was voided if he were traded.

Chip R
04-24-2007, 03:49 PM
This is not Dunn's walk year. The club holds an option for 2008 and it would transfer.


Actually, if Dunn were traded, the option for next year would become null and void.

flyer85
04-24-2007, 03:50 PM
This is not Dunn's walk year. The club holds an option for 2008 and it would transfer. If Dunn is traded the option year voids.

REDREAD
04-24-2007, 03:53 PM
If you trade Dunn right now, it's a white flag move. No one's going to give you a quality major leaguer in return for him at this time, reason being that any team acquiring Dunn right now would be loading up for 2007.

So we're almost by definition talking about restocking deals here. And if you're going to restock, then the middle of the diamond is where the team should be looking - pitcher, catcher, shortstop, centerfielder.


That's a great point. We aren't likely to get a player at his peak now.

In fact, the ideal trade for Dunn would likely be simliar to the Colon deal to the Expos, which netted the Indians Cliff Lee, Phillips, and Sizemore.. Obviously, Dunn probably wouldn't command as much as Colon, but he could probably net a future star, solid major leaguer, and 2 washouts in 2-3 years IF the Reds scout correctly.


I was originally going to say the Reds should target a RH bat.. but if Dunn leaves, they are going to need a LH bat as well..

Shaggy Sanchez
04-24-2007, 03:58 PM
I would be too highly upset for, at least, a month to even consider what they got in return. Other than that, I would really half to think about it. There probably aren't 15 players I would rather have than Adam Dunn, seriously.

I like Dunn and would rather him stay with the Reds but to say that there probably aren't 15 players you would rather have over Dunn. Here is a list off the top of my head of guys I would take over Dunn, would you decline some of them if offered for Dunn?

A.Pujols
R.Howard
B.Webb
J.Reyes
M.Cabrera
R.Oswalt
D.Wright
C.Beltran
J.Santana
J.Verlander
J.Mauer
J.Morneau
ARod
Vlad
R.Halladay
J.Paplbon
G.Sizemore

F.Liriano -if healthy
F.Hernandez -if healthy
D.Haren -if healthy
B.Sheets - if healthy
I would also listen to offers for
C.Utley
J.Peavy
D.Willis

There is 23 players off the top of my head and I tried not to include guys that were a lot older such as D.Ortiz, M.Ramirez, D.Jeter, or Ichiro.

15fan
04-24-2007, 03:58 PM
The time to trade Adam Dunn is after this off-season. Kind of like the time to trade Austin Kearns was after the '06 season...not during it.

At that point, we have an entire season of Josh Hamilton and hopefully some Joey Votto ABs to chew on as well. Jay Bruce is a year closer to the show, too.

Denorfia and / or Freel give the Reds options (albeit less than ideal) in CF for the next couple of years so I'm not so worried about that. Pitching is always nice to have. Phillips and Gonzalez should have the middle IF covered for the next couple of years, but it would be nice to have some depth not named Juan Castro behind them.

The organization is screaming for a catcher. But as long as Narron is going to carry 3 catchers, I don't know that it makes sense to deal Dunn for someone who's going to split time with 2 others.

Unless acquiring a front line catcher forces Narron to drop the 3rd catcher from the roster and add either another legitimate bat for the IF or arm for the bullpen.

M2
04-24-2007, 04:14 PM
The time to trade Adam Dunn is after this off-season. Kind of like the time to trade Austin Kearns was after the '06 season...not during it.

I agree.

Falls City Beer
04-24-2007, 04:14 PM
That may be true based on talent but I don't think the GM will concede just yet. It would raise a huge red flag saying "what the hell did I do in the off-season"

I understand that. Though I suppose there's never really a good time to throw up the white flag, only a less painful time.

lollipopcurve
04-24-2007, 04:32 PM
As I understand it, the Reds are fast losing leverage on any Dunn deal since he can't be controlled for 08 and be traded at the same time. Because of the way his 08 option works, in the coming offseason the Reds can either exercise the option, or watch him hit free agency. They can't exercise the option and then trade him.

I say hunker down, assume he's here through 08, and hope that he gets back on an upward trajectory so that the team can contend this year and/or next. The team is too weak offensively right now to think you can trade Dunn and not sink the team's competitive hopes for a couple years, in my opinion.

If somehow the big guy locks in and really produces, maybe he and the team will want him around longer. But, with Hamilton here and Bruce on the horizon, I'm pretty convinced Dunn will be elsewhere by 09.

dougdirt
04-24-2007, 04:48 PM
The time to trade Adam Dunn is after this off-season. Kind of like the time to trade Austin Kearns was after the '06 season...not during it.


Does that even work? Honest question, but since his 2008 option is void if he is traded, would it be void if he was traded prior to the start of the 2008 season?

M2
04-24-2007, 05:08 PM
As I understand it, the Reds are fast losing leverage on any Dunn deal since he can't be controlled for 08 and be traded at the same time. Because of the way his 08 option works, in the coming offseason the Reds can either exercise the option, or watch him hit free agency. They can't exercise the option and then trade him.

I say hunker down, assume he's here through 08, and hope that he gets back on an upward trajectory so that the team can contend this year and/or next. The team is too weak offensively right now to think you can trade Dunn and not sink the team's competitive hopes for a couple years, in my opinion.

If somehow the big guy locks in and really produces, maybe he and the team will want him around longer. But, with Hamilton here and Bruce on the horizon, I'm pretty convinced Dunn will be elsewhere by 09.

Even if the Reds have nothing in the OF, my guess is Dunn's testing the free agent waters after 2008. If he puts up big numbers the next two years, he'll be staring at a nine-digit deal.

I'm in agreement on the other stuff. Right now the Reds have to play this hand. If Encarnacion and Phillips have themselves sorted out by Memorial Day, if Hobbs stays fictional, if Lohse and Belisle can pitch well, if the bullpen can fall into a working pattern then maybe this team can get into the hunt. Krivsky's got to give the team that chance before he even thinks about dismantling it.

The Brewers look like they'll be the early pacesetter in the division and other clubs should be wary because they've got the talent to win 90+ games. It's the kind of club you don't want to see popping too far off the front. That said, neither the Cardinals nor the Astros has got themselves in gear. The Pirates are already making it clear they won't be finishing above .500 this season and the Cubs are looking like a club that can always find a way to undermine itself.

Some strong teams in the NL East (Mets and Braves) likely will make it impossible to poach a Wild Card with less than 90 wins.

What it means for us fans is an interminable next five or six weeks where this team continues to feel itself out. The club, if it comes together, will do so slowly. It puts on the pressure to pile up the wins between Memorial Day and the All-Star break. The main thing is, it's not go time yet and it won't be for at least another month. Even if you're convinced this team will be a clunker, it will still spend weeks going through ups and downs before it hits June and proves it's a clunker.

Whether this team ultimately flourishes, collapses or languishes, maddening days are ahead in the coming weeks.

M2
04-24-2007, 05:10 PM
Does that even work? Honest question, but since his 2008 option is void if he is traded, would it be void if he was traded prior to the start of the 2008 season?

It would have to involve a LTC negotiation in addition to the trade.

membengal
04-24-2007, 05:25 PM
Thanks for the discussion, folks. Go away to a deposition and come back to some thought provoking stuff. Cool.

I definitely wouldn't want to deal him if I were WK while his value was at its lowest, but if he gets fiery hot, and teams come sniffing in June/July, at the least, the types of sticks and arms I mentioned earlier would be my hope. It could be, given his contract situation that it wouldn't be until the off-season when a deal would be struck, but, IF he were to be dealt, WK has to maximize the return. Absolutely has to.

RedsManRick
04-24-2007, 06:07 PM
I actually think that the time to trade Dunn has come and likely gone. The only real opportunity is come June if he's OPS'ing .950 with 25 HR and a few teams hot to trot for a bat. His long term value to another organization is shot given the option limitation.

That said, I think the Bartolo Colon trade comp is the most appropriate. He's a very productive young player who has some warts but could alter the face of a playoff race if he lands in the right place. The Indians got Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore. That's a washout 1B, a talented young 2B, a solid pitching prospect who has turned in to a #3 starter, and a top flight OF prospect well advanced beyond his age.

I'd ask the Angels for Ervin Santana and Brandon Wood, throwing them a solid pitching prospect from our side (Wood maybe) and maybe even a bullpen arm (Eric Milton, salary paid?). That was the supposed offer for Soriano, though I will admit Dunn isn't nearly the trading chit Soriano was, particularly given that market (hispanic leanings). It's a more a sign that they're willing to part with Santana for a power bat.

Anyways, I still think Dunn has through 08 at the very most as a Red. They just can't decide what his role is and if they're comfortable with his weaknesses. Time will tell I suppose, but I think he leaves as a FA after 2008 or during that summer to an AL team making a run.

Kc61
04-24-2007, 06:28 PM
Press reports are often wrong, but when last I looked the reports said the following:

1. Adam Dunn is a free agent after this year unless the Reds agree to pay him $13.5 million for '08.

2. If he were to be traded at the '07 deadline, the acquiring club gets Dunn for two months (and any playoffs). He is then a free agent. As I understand it, the option for '08 disappears.

3. If the Reds exercise the $13.5 million option, as I recall, he has a full no-trade clause and cannot be dealt under that deal, unless he consents.

4. If the Reds exercise, Dunn is a free agent after '08.

So there are three alternatives only. First, pay Dunn the $13.5 and keep him through '08. Second, trade him this year. Third, let him go after this year. Trading him in '08 is not realistic.

If he is traded at the deadline, he is strictly a two-month rental and will command a limited return. Probably one (hopefully) very good prospect. Maybe a mid-level vet thrown in.

If he is let go after this year, the Reds get nothing. The only way this happens is if the Reds are in the race this year until the end and they don't want to trade him and risk falling out of the race.

If he is kept in '08 at $13.5 million it is because he had a very good year and the Reds think he is a keeper.

I see no scenario where Dunn gets traded for a major return.

redsmetz
04-24-2007, 07:19 PM
As I understand it, the Reds are fast losing leverage on any Dunn deal since he can't be controlled for 08 and be traded at the same time. Because of the way his 08 option works, in the coming offseason the Reds can either exercise the option, or watch him hit free agency. They can't exercise the option and then trade him.

I say hunker down, assume he's here through 08, and hope that he gets back on an upward trajectory so that the team can contend this year and/or next. The team is too weak offensively right now to think you can trade Dunn and not sink the team's competitive hopes for a couple years, in my opinion.

If somehow the big guy locks in and really produces, maybe he and the team will want him around longer. But, with Hamilton here and Bruce on the horizon, I'm pretty convinced Dunn will be elsewhere by 09.

If the option is voided (and I'm not saying it wouldn't be, but I can't find anything to verify that), then you can still trade him with value by making it contingent on the receiving team being allowed to negotiate a contract extension. Likewise, as someone noted, an offseason trade after the Reds have exercised the option is also a possibility.

Edit: I saw this in the post previous to mine


3. If the Reds exercise the $13.5 million option, as I recall, he has a full no-trade clause and cannot be dealt under that deal, unless he consents.

Where is that written? I don't recall hearing that there is a no-trade clause in his contract if the option is exercised. He certainly doesn't have 10/5 rights yet. Is there something in the archives regarding his contract? I couldn't find it.

redsmetz
04-24-2007, 07:27 PM
Okay, here's the skinny from the Reds website viz Dunn's contract extension


After making $4.6 million in 2005, Dunn will make $7.5 million in 2006 and $10.5 million in 2007. His club option for 2008 can be bought out for $500,000. The option year will be voided if Dunn is traded at some point during the next two seasons, but he still will receive the $500,000 buyout payment. The first two seasons of the contract avoid a third year of arbitration eligibility and defer his first exploration into the free agent market for an extra season.

So the option does void, but there's no mention of a no trade clause and he certainly does not have 10/5 rights. My guess is we could exercise the option after this season and then trade him.

Caveat Emperor
04-24-2007, 08:56 PM
So we're almost by definition talking about restocking deals here. And if you're going to restock, then the middle of the diamond is where the team should be looking - pitcher, catcher, shortstop, centerfielder.

And, if you're going to re-stock, it makes sense to try and find players that are on the same timetable as what little cavalry the Reds have coming from the minor leagues.

Selling off Dunn now makes a bit of sense if you can get a couple quality prospects that are a year to year-and-a-half out so that you can continue to open that window of opportunity in the 2008/2009 range, when guys like Bailey and Votto should be established members of the club and other players like Bruce and Stubbs are getting close to breaking-in as well.

jojo
04-24-2007, 09:15 PM
I actually think that the time to trade Dunn has come and likely gone. The only real opportunity is come June if he's OPS'ing .950 with 25 HR and a few teams hot to trot for a bat. His long term value to another organization is shot given the option limitation.

The time to trade Dunn and get a big return has definately come and gone. He's a minus glove meaning not only is his value solely derived from his bat but his bat has to be exceptional now to justify his salary. The sum of his bat and glove have to equal three wins just to break even this season meaning he probably has to have a VORP of 45. His option year gets even worse as his bat would have to be somewhere over a VORP of 50.

That means two things. First, he's no longer a safe risk relative his salary. Second, teams can now see ways to reasonably approximate his contribution to wins for less money. These things HAVE to factor his into trade value.

Then consider the discussion concerning the structure of his contract in this thread. Trading for him this season is very complicated because he's either a rent a player (forget big trade package in return) or something long term has to be worked out before a trade can happen (making it less likely a trade can happen since free agency probably looks really good to Dunn). That also probably decreases return. I think it's pretty clear how much tougher trading him has gotten since '04. His '06 didn't do anything but increase the risk associated with him. The kicker is that it's possible he could be a 5 win bat. It's virtually a certainty IMHO that Dunn's return would not equal his potential. That being said, I doubt he'll be a 5 win bat. It's a tough spot to be in for the Reds. I think they excerise his option and cross their fingers.


I'd ask the Angels for Ervin Santana and Brandon Wood, throwing them a solid pitching prospect from our side (Wood maybe) and maybe even a bullpen arm (Eric Milton, salary paid?). That was the supposed offer for Soriano, though I will admit Dunn isn't nearly the trading chit Soriano was, particularly given that market (hispanic leanings). It's a more a sign that they're willing to part with Santana for a power bat.

IMHO (and this IS NOT meant as a dig/insult), I think it's crazy talk to think the Angels will package Santana and Wood for Dunn and whatever. Wood is a Tejada-like uber offensive shortstop in the making that is pretty close to the dance (making him harder to pry from a GM's fingers). That is a huge thing at league minimum. Same thing with Santana. He's a cheap innings eater, albeit overrated, but still very valuable.

I could absolutely be wrong but I think Dunn's trade value is often overstated. The Reds won't be cherry picking prized commodities from toher organisations. IMHO, they'll have to assume a good deal of risk with their return or in the very least assume an equal amount of salary coming back their way.

Kc61
04-24-2007, 09:38 PM
I do recall reports on the web that Dunn gets a no trade clause in 2008 if the Reds exercise. I don't know if they are accurate. But even if they are untrue, the concept of some huge return for Dunn with free agency imminent (either in 2008 or possibly 09) is, in my view, not realistic.

dougdirt
04-24-2007, 09:41 PM
I agree with you Jojo. I think the expectations for Adam Dunn are pretty far fetched considering all of his contributions to a team come from the offensive side of the plate. He is making 10 million this year and 13 million next year. That is a ton of money for a guy who walks and hits HRs and does nothing else well. He cant run, he cant hit for average, he cant field. I like Adam Dunn, and I would enjoy seeing him as a Red for a long time, but not at the salary he will be getting after 2008. Teams have to look at it that if they trade for Dunn at any point, its only until the end of the season and to give up a top prospect and a current starter for that, you better be extremely desperate, and fairly stupid as a GM.

Jpup
04-25-2007, 08:47 AM
I like Dunn and would rather him stay with the Reds but to say that there probably aren't 15 players you would rather have over Dunn. Here is a list off the top of my head of guys I would take over Dunn, would you decline some of them if offered for Dunn?

A.Pujols
R.Howard
B.Webb
J.Reyes
M.Cabrera
R.Oswalt
D.Wright
C.Beltran
J.Santana
J.Verlander
J.Mauer
J.Morneau
ARod
Vlad
R.Halladay
J.Paplbon
G.Sizemore

F.Liriano -if healthy
F.Hernandez -if healthy
D.Haren -if healthy
B.Sheets - if healthy
I would also listen to offers for
C.Utley
J.Peavy
D.Willis

There is 23 players off the top of my head and I tried not to include guys that were a lot older such as D.Ortiz, M.Ramirez, D.Jeter, or Ichiro.

I would not trade Dunn for Sizemore, Morneau, Sheets, or Utley. I wouldn't trade him for Ichiro in a million years. I'm a big Dunn fan, what can I say. He's an amazing player IMO. To hear the Cardinals announcers compare Chris Duncan to him and both qualify Duncan with the advantage made me sick.

jojo
04-25-2007, 09:03 AM
I would not trade Dunn for Sizemore, Morneau, Sheets, or Utley. I wouldn't trade him for Ichiro in a million years. I'm a big Dunn fan, what can I say.

Thats why GMs shouldn't be fans first......

For instance, consider Ichiro. Between '04-'06 he's had 60 more RC than Dunn-while playing gold-glove calibre defense (and no one disputes the legitimacy of his GG). Ichiro was more valuable than Dunn as a rightfielder. Now that Ichiro is a centerfielder, the difference in their values has probably doubled.

If a GM turned down a straight up Ichiro for Dunn offer, strong consideration would have to be given to firing him.

Jpup
04-25-2007, 09:13 AM
Thats why GMs shouldn't be fans first......

For instance, consider Ichiro. Between '04-'06 he's had 60 more RC than Dunn-while playing gold-glove calibre defense (and no one disputes the legitimacy of his GG). Ichiro was more valuable than Dunn as a rightfielder. Now that Ichiro is a centerfielder, the difference in their values has probably doubled.

If a GM turned down a straight up Ichiro for Dunn offer, strong consideration would have to be given to firing him.


Adam Dunn makes less outs. That is the guy that I want.

redsfanmia
04-25-2007, 09:40 AM
Adam Dunn makes less outs. That is the guy that I want.

Ichiro does more things. Ichiro is a far superior player than Dunn no doubt about it. I dont know if I would place Dunn in the top 150 players in the game right now.

Jpup
04-25-2007, 09:56 AM
Ichiro does more things. Ichiro is a far superior player than Dunn no doubt about it. I dont know if I would place Dunn in the top 150 players in the game right now.

ok, that doesn't make it correct though. Ichiro is 33 and declining, Dunn is still getting better.

jojo
04-25-2007, 10:48 AM
ok, that doesn't make it correct though. Ichiro is 33 and declining, Dunn is still getting better.

Dunn's bat has declined each of his last three seasons offensively. His slump in '06 raises the question of whether we're seeing a real trend-'07 should tell us alot. That said, there is no sign of improvement during '04 thru '06. Also, defensively he hasn't improved. Peak for defense is 24 so I don't think it's reasonable to expect his to improve dramatically with the leather at this point.

Concerning your comment about Ichiro I think you really meant to say: "Ichiro is 33 and expected to begin declining". Given he really doesn't have a good set of comparibles, I don't think it's very compelling to blindly fit the normal development curve to him. But this really is a different issue anyway. Ichiro, right now, is worth more than Dunn and it isn't even close.

jojo
04-25-2007, 11:07 AM
Adam Dunn makes less outs. That is the guy that I want.

This is a puzzling statement. Ichiro's career OBP= .376. Dunn's career OBP= .379.

Ichiro has created more runs over a similar period, the two "make a similar percentage of outs", and Ichiro plays stellar defense (add more runs onto the RC total while subtracting runs from Dunn's). Now Ichiro is playing stellar defense at a premium defensive position further widening the gap in value between the two.

From 2004 thru 2006, when considering their bats and gloves, Ichiro could've been as much as 10 wins better than Dunn using RC as a measure for offense and the gold standard metrics to estimate defense (UZR, PMR, Dewan's).

PuffyPig
04-25-2007, 11:24 AM
I would not trade Dunn for Sizemore, Morneau, Sheets, or Utley.


I like Dunn, but I would trade him for Sizemore in a second. Same for Mourneau, considering their salaries and control of player. I do the Sheets trade, and then trade Sheets for a bunch of great propspects. Probaly same for Utley, because of his salary.

Jpup
04-25-2007, 11:41 AM
This is a puzzling statement. Ichiro's career OBP= .376. Dunn's career OBP= .379.

2005
Ichiro .350/.436
Dunn .387/.540

2006
Ichiro .370/.416
Dunn ..365/.490

Dunn is 27, Ichiro is 33 and declining. IMO, the job of a hitter is to not make an out. Dunn makes less outs. Sure, Dunn fell apart at the end of 2006 and he didn't get on base like normal, but he is again ahead of Ichiro in 2007 thus far in OBP and he's not even been going well especially his last 20+ times to the plate. Ichiro is much better defensively, no one can argue that, but to say that Dunn hasn't improved is hogwash. He is much better thus far in 2007 in left field than he was last year. You are also not going to get Ichiro for 13 million next year either. He's going to get a Soriano like contract after this season. At 33, I want no part of that.

I'm sure New York or LA would not blink over giving Dunn 13 million after this year. It's that same small thinking that keep the Reds in the middle or below the pack, year after year. I'm not opposed to trading him, but I would rather do it at a position of need rather than for a 33 year old outfielder with an expiring contract. That .786 OPS in 2005 and 2006 doesn't look to great. The point is moot anyway since Seattle isn't going to trade him. The Reds have people to fill the role that he would obtain if they would choose to go that route.

I don't really know how to go about looking up all the stats, but I know that Adam Dunn makes less outs than a large majority of baseball. I want more guys like that. Why would you trade a guy when is stock is lower than ever anyway? The idea is to sell high and buy low. Dunn's stock will go up as the season goes on.

jojo
04-25-2007, 12:06 PM
2005
Ichiro .350/.436
Dunn .387/.540

2006
Ichiro .370/.416
Dunn ..365/.490

2004-2006:
Ichiro: RC: 370; VORP: 150;
Dunn: RC: 310; VORP: 122;


Dunn is 27, Ichiro is 33 and declining.

If you track the two over their careers (i've just focused on '04-'06 above to be fair to Dunn), there is only one who looks like he's declining and its Dunn.


IMO, the job of a hitter is to not make an out. Dunn makes less outs. Sure, Dunn fell apart at the end of 2006 and he didn't get on base like normal, but he is again ahead of Ichiro in 2007 thus far in OBP and he's not even been going well especially his last 20+ times to the plate.

Their career OBP are identical.


Ichiro is much better defensively, no one can argue that, but to say that Dunn hasn't improved is hogwash. He is much better thus far in 2007 in left field than he was last year.

I'm not sure what the opinion that Dunn is dramatically improved defensively this season is based upon...


You are also not going to get Ichiro for 13 million next year either. He's going to get a Soriano like contract after this season. At 33, I want no part of that.

But that's the point. Ichiro is worth the raise based upon his contribution to wins. It's very likely that Dunn will be overpaid based upon his. Paying alot of money isn't a bad thing as long as your getting a fair return. You also have to remember that Ichiro's offensive numbers have been put up largely in extreme pitcher's parks (Seattle, Oakland and Anahiem within the division and the Ms schedule takes him routinely to several such parks outside his division). in contrast the reds schedule is significantly more hitter friendly both at home and on the road. Concerning the aging, lets see a sig of it before we start assuming he's going to start falling off of a cliff.

The rest of your argument basically hinged upon speculation which I'm not going to argue with. Basically you're anticipating a big year from Dunn and I hope you're right.

redsfanmia
04-25-2007, 12:37 PM
ok, that doesn't make it correct though. Ichiro is 33 and declining, Dunn is still getting better.

What part of Dunn's game is improving?

dabvu2498
04-25-2007, 12:38 PM
But that's the point. Ichiro is worth the raise based upon his contribution to wins. It's very likely that Dunn will be overpaid based upon his. Paying alot of money isn't a bad thing as long as your getting a fair return.

Not to belabor this point, but according to THT's "Fair Market Value Calculator" (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/ws_val_form/) and his 2006 Win Shares Above Bench, Dunn was overpaid roughly $916,000 in 2006.

GoReds
04-25-2007, 12:45 PM
What about the Mets after this season ends?

Send them Dunn and Encarnacion for Wright and Pelfrey.

redsfanmia
04-25-2007, 12:48 PM
What about the Mets after this season ends?

Send them Dunn and Encarnacion for Wright and Pelfrey.

Why would the Mets make this trade?

GoReds
04-25-2007, 01:05 PM
Why would the Mets make this trade?

Who do the Mets have in the OF? Alou, who will be 41 soon and Green hasn't had a SLG% near 500 since 2002. Their best prospect OF in the minors is 19. Adam would give them LH power to spare (Delgado will turn 35 this year) and anchor the LF spot.

Encarnacion helps them get younger and replaces Wright at 3B.

Shaggy Sanchez
04-25-2007, 01:07 PM
The problem is that Wright is better than Dunn or Encarnacion and the Mets have the money to reload without giving up their quality young players.

REDREAD
04-25-2007, 01:12 PM
What about the Mets after this season ends?

Send them Dunn and Encarnacion for Wright and Pelfrey.

I'd do that in a second, but I doubt the Mets would do it, even if they only had to give up Wright.

Benihana
04-25-2007, 01:13 PM
The problem is that Wright is better than Dunn or Encarnacion and the Mets have the money to reload without giving up their quality young players.

not to mention that he's their marketing darling

KronoRed
04-25-2007, 01:14 PM
Offer EE Dunn, Votto, Bruce and Bailey and the Mets MIGHT think about it.

RedsManRick
04-25-2007, 01:27 PM
IMHO (and this IS NOT meant as a dig/insult), I think it's crazy talk to think the Angels will package Santana and Wood for Dunn and whatever. Wood is a Tejada-like uber offensive shortstop in the making that is pretty close to the dance (making him harder to pry from a GM's fingers). That is a huge thing at league minimum. Same thing with Santana. He's a cheap innings eater, albeit overrated, but still very valuable.

I could absolutely be wrong but I think Dunn's trade value is often overstated. The Reds won't be cherry picking prized commodities from toher organisations. IMHO, they'll have to assume a good deal of risk with their return or in the very least assume an equal amount of salary coming back their way.

Fair enough. I realize Santana and Wood for Dunn and anything less than Bailey would be a steal for us. That said, the Angels have shopped Santana around (God knows why) so I'd at least poke around. Wood is probably too much -- I didn't realize just how amazing he's been in the minors.

membengal
04-25-2007, 01:35 PM
Yup, given that Santana's name has been floated, IF wk were to be inclined to deal Dunn at some point, I would want him to at least kick those tires. I don't think asking about Wood too is insane either, perhaps a top Reds prospect in return (maybe even Homer type) would get that done. It's the kind of return that I hope WK will make a condition of any such inquiries. It is possible to do deals where both teams benefit...