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AmarilloRed
04-25-2007, 11:49 AM
Does anyone think we already have Dunns replacement on the roster? His name is Josh Hamilton and if he continues to hit better than Dunn and give the reds more production than Dunn, the reds will simply buyout Dunn at the end of the season. Krivsky signed Dunn because he was the only run producer in the lineup. Wily Mo struck out too much, Kearns was always hurt, and there was noone else. If he gets enough plate appearances( a big if) Hamilton will take over Dunns spot in the offseason. This is why Dunn is doing better. He hears foootsteps following him.:rolleyes:

Redsland
04-25-2007, 11:51 AM
The Reds hold Hamilton's rights for six years. He is Griffey's replacement.

hebroncougar
04-25-2007, 11:54 AM
Does anyone think we already have Dunns replacement on the roster? His name is Josh Hamilton and if he continues to hit better than Dunn and give the reds more production than Dunn, the reds will simply buyout Dunn at the end of the season. Krivsky signed Dunn because he was the only run producer in the lineup. Wily Mo struck out too much, Kearns was always hurt, and there was noone else. If he gets enough plate appearances( a big if) Hamilton will take over Dunns spot in the offseason. This is why Dunn is doing better. He hears foootsteps following him.:rolleyes:

Yeah, becase we only need one run producer.

Jaycint
04-25-2007, 11:54 AM
Does anyone think we already have Dunns replacement on the roster? His name is Josh Hamilton and if he continues to hit better than Dunn and give the reds more production than Dunn, the reds will simply buyout Dunn at the end of the season. Krivsky signed Dunn because he was the only run producer in the lineup. Wily Mo struck out too much, Kearns was always hurt, and there was noone else. If he gets enough plate appearances( a big if) Hamilton will take over Dunns spot in the offseason. This is why Dunn is doing better. He hears foootsteps following him.:rolleyes:

I love Hamilton as much as the next guy but it's too soon to expect him to replace 40+ HR, 100+ Walks, ~ 100 RBI, etc year in and year out. I concur with the idea that he is Griffey's replacement.

Degenerate39
04-25-2007, 12:02 PM
I want to keep Dunn so we can see an outfield like this. Hamilton, Bruce, Dunn

AmarilloRed
04-25-2007, 12:02 PM
He already has 5 hrs and 11 rbis in mid-April.He will have 30-40 hrs and 100 rbis by the end of the year if he keeps it up. Griffey will be in the lineup for anothe 2-3 years and his replacement will come from the minors. One of the outfielders will be ready by then. The only question is if Hamilton can get enough playing time and show enough consistancy to take over. Dunn will have to improve to stay in the outfield.

rotnoid
04-25-2007, 12:05 PM
This is a new angle on the Hamilton man-love. Replacing Dunn makes no sense, but if we can keep him and add a piece that is really a bat to build a line up about (which I don't believe Dunn is, but that's been beat into the ground), then you've got something. I'm not saying Hamilton is that guy-- I'm not ready to make that leap, but if he can be, then boy are we heading in the right direction.

bucksfan2
04-25-2007, 12:09 PM
There is no way that the reds buy Dunn out after this year. He will have his option picked up at the end of this season. It makes too much sense. Look at what some of the free agent outfielders are getting contract wise.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 12:14 PM
He already has 5 hrs and 11 rbis in mid-April.He will have 30-40 hrs and 100 rbis by the end of the year if he keeps it up. Griffey will be in the lineup for anothe 2-3 years and his replacement will come from the minors. One of the outfielders will be ready by then. The only question is if Hamilton can get enough playing time and show enough consistancy to take over. Dunn will have to improve to stay in the outfield.

That's if the league doesn't catch up to him. When is Kevin Maas scheduled to break Aaron's HR record? Is it this year or next? ;)

Chip R
04-25-2007, 12:15 PM
The thing we need to remember about Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. That's not a knock on him because I'm sure he would agree. He's recovering and doing well and that's great. But depending on Josh to stay clean and sober for the next several years is like depending on Jr. to stay healthy for a full season. It could happen but the odds are against it.

klw
04-25-2007, 12:17 PM
Hamilton makes it easier for the Reds to keep Dunn. Hamilton will be cheap for a while, has good range and defensive ability which helps hide Dunn's problems in the outfield. Griffey's replacement is likely to be Bruce. It would be Stubb's development which would be more likely to push Dunn out of left by creating a logjam. But these things have a way of working themselves out. I would love to have the problem of Bruce having the sort of year that Dunn had in his last year in the minors and forcing an accelerated timetable.

AmarilloRed
04-25-2007, 12:18 PM
I am prefacing this thread on the assumption Dunn hits.230 , 40 hrs, 210 strikeouts like he did last year. If Hamilton matches his production and hits much better than Dunn, I can see this happening. IfDunn improves as a hitter, his option will be picked up.;)

KronoRed
04-25-2007, 12:27 PM
Yeah, becase we only need one run producer.

:clap:

Jefferson24
04-25-2007, 12:29 PM
The thing we need to remember about Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. That's not a knock on him because I'm sure he would agree. He's recovering and doing well and that's great. But depending on Josh to stay clean and sober for the next several years is like depending on Jr. to stay healthy for a full season. It could happen but the odds are against it.

The thing Josh has going for him now that most recovering addicts don't have is handlers. Don't think for a minute that he is just out there on his own. The Reds have people who are watching very closely. He doesn't even carry his own meal money. He is more closely guarded than the communist athletes during Olympic competition in a free country.

Sure there's a chance he can relapse, but the odds of his kicking this addiction for good are greatly improved over the average addict.

Red Leader
04-25-2007, 12:34 PM
The way I look at it is that Jay Bruce is Griffey's replacement. Josh Hamilton is Austin Kearn's replacement. Adam Dunn does not have a replacement. If the Reds choose to let him go they're going to have to either have someone blow up on historic levels in the minors to replace him, or possibly pay more than what it would cost to keep Dunn to replace him.

Degenerate39
04-25-2007, 12:36 PM
:laugh:

Yeah, becase we only need one run producer.

hebroncougar
04-25-2007, 12:36 PM
I want to keep Dunn so we can see an outfield like this. Hamilton, Bruce, Dunn

While I'd like to see that, they'd better have a pretty much all RH hitting infield, and not just light hitting types either. That's a very predominantly LH power hitting core. That's part of the problem they seem to be having now.

KronoRed
04-25-2007, 12:39 PM
What's the trouble with an overload of lefties? most pitchers are righties ;)

Chip R
04-25-2007, 12:41 PM
The thing Josh has going for him now that most recovering addicts don't have is handlers. Don't think for a minute that he is just out there on his own. The Reds have people who are watching very closely. He doesn't even carry his own meal money. He is more closely guarded than the communist athletes during Olympic competition in a free country.

Sure there's a chance he can relapse, but the odds of his kicking this addiction for good are greatly improved over the average addict.


I hope so but if he wants drugs bad enough, he will be able to get them. I know he has handlers and he's watched closely but, to use the Jr. analogy again, the Reds and their fans were counting on Jr. to stay healthy when he was traded here. Count on Josh to remain clean and sober but make sure you have a backup plan in effect in case he doesn't.

redsfan30
04-25-2007, 12:43 PM
I don't think picking up Dunn's option is the slam-dunk most here want it to be.

Jpup
04-25-2007, 12:47 PM
I am prefacing this thread on the assumption Dunn hits.230 , 40 hrs, 210 strikeouts like he did last year. If Hamilton matches his production and hits much better than Dunn, I can see this happening. IfDunn improves as a hitter, his option will be picked up.;)

Dunn struck out 194 times in 2006 not 210. He also hit .234 as if that matters. There is no replacement for Adam Dunn in the Reds system.

NJReds
04-25-2007, 12:55 PM
I don't think picking up Dunn's option is the slam-dunk most here want it to be.

I think they'll pick up the option. But I don't see any long-term $15+M/yr. contracts in his future unless he shows improvement this year and next. The other red flag are these back spasms; despite his durability, he's a pretty big dude, could that lead him to an earlier physical deterioration? I have no clue...just a question. I remember some chart on here about how short pitchers tend to regress quickly at a certain point of their careers...is there someone smarter than me that can put up a similar chart for 6-6, 275 pound players?

Red Leader
04-25-2007, 12:58 PM
I think they'll pick up the option. But I don't see any long-term $15+M/yr. contracts in his future unless he shows improvement this year and next. The other red flag are these back spasms; despite his durability, he's a pretty big dude, could that lead him to an earlier physical deterioration? I have no clue...just a question. I remember some chart on here about how short pitchers tend to regress quickly at a certain point of their careers...is there someone smarter than me that can put up a similar chart for 6-6, 275 pound players?

I believe at one time, westofyou provided a chart similar for large outfielders and how short their careers were in the OF as a result of them just being big. He's going to have to be moved at some point.

The other thing to consider is that maybe Joey Votto is Dunn's replacement at 1B and the Reds will replace Dunn's actual position with a player of slight offensive upgrade to Hatteberg / Conine, thus providing a neutral effect overall on the offense for the two positions, if possible, and a defensive upgrade at both positions.

Highlifeman21
04-25-2007, 01:24 PM
I am prefacing this thread on the assumption Dunn hits.230 , 40 hrs, 210 strikeouts like he did last year. If Hamilton matches his production and hits much better than Dunn, I can see this happening. IfDunn improves as a hitter, his option will be picked up.;)

Really?

I thought he only struck out 194 times last year.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 01:28 PM
The way I look at it is that Jay Bruce is Griffey's replacement. Josh Hamilton is Austin Kearn's replacement. Adam Dunn does not have a replacement. If the Reds choose to let him go they're going to have to either have someone blow up on historic levels in the minors to replace him, or possibly pay more than what it would cost to keep Dunn to replace him.

Who does Stubbs replace?

Dunn might be able to get Milton and Weathers' replacements, for example...that's what it's all about.

RedsManRick
04-25-2007, 01:32 PM
An OF of Hamilton, Stubbs, and Bruce would easily best the best defensive OF in baseball.

Red Leader
04-25-2007, 01:37 PM
Ok, so maybe you could have:

Hamilton (replace Kearns), Bruce (replace Dunn / Hatteberg), Stubbs (replace Griffey) and Votto (replace Hatteberg / Dunn)

Shaggy Sanchez
04-25-2007, 01:37 PM
The thing Josh has going for him now that most recovering addicts don't have is handlers. Don't think for a minute that he is just out there on his own. The Reds have people who are watching very closely. He doesn't even carry his own meal money. He is more closely guarded than the communist athletes during Olympic competition in a free country.

Sure there's a chance he can relapse, but the odds of his kicking this addiction for good are greatly improved over the average addict.

He might have handlers and be watched very closely but can that last forever? Will his handlers stay with him all offseason, go out on dates with him, refuse to let him be alone if he needs/wants time to himself. People who are addicted to drugs will get drugs if they want them no matter how many safegaurds are put into place. I hope for that everything works out for Josh and he woun't relapse but like Chip said there is no gaurantee that he won't and sadly the odds are greater that he will go back to drugs than not.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 01:39 PM
Ok, so maybe you could have:

Hamilton (replace Kearns), Bruce (replace Dunn / Hatteberg), Stubbs (replace Griffey) and Votto (replace Hatteberg / Dunn)

4 virtual unknowns at this point...risky, but intriguing. Especially when you think trading Dunn for young talent could net you $13 million in savings and some close to the majors prospects.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 01:40 PM
An OF of Hamilton, Stubbs, and Bruce would easily best the best defensive OF in baseball.

But one of the highest risk, as their track records are virtually nonexistant.

paintmered
04-25-2007, 01:40 PM
He might have handlers and be watched very closely but can that last forever? Will his handlers stay with him all offseason, go out on dates with him, refuse to let him be alone if he needs/wants time to himself. People who are addicted to drugs will get drugs if they want them no matter how many safegaurds are put into place. I hope for that everything works out for Josh and he woun't relapse but like Chip said there is no gaurantee that he won't and sadly the odds are greater that he will go back to drugs than not.

Isn't Josh married?

dabvu2498
04-25-2007, 01:42 PM
Isn't Josh married?

I believe so... And they have a child and I believe he wife has a child from a previous relationship. Not 100% sure on that part.

Chip R
04-25-2007, 01:42 PM
Isn't Josh married?


He is but I'm not sure what that has to do with him not relapsing.

Hoosier Red
04-25-2007, 01:46 PM
Chip,

I think that was in relation to Josh going on dates.

I think Josh would agree with you, lets just get to tomorrow. Forget about 3 years from now.

mroby85
04-25-2007, 01:48 PM
i personally would let dunn go, but i would sign another offensive player in the offseason that is a 300 + caliber hitter, and doesn't strike out that much.

paintmered
04-25-2007, 01:48 PM
He is but I'm not sure what that has to do with him not relapsing.

It has everything to do with it. His support network (hopefully) includes his wife, and hopefully she accompanies him on dates, nights on the town, watches over him during the off-season, etc.

paintmered
04-25-2007, 01:51 PM
i personally would let dunn go, but i would sign another offensive player in the offseason that is a 300 + caliber hitter, and doesn't strike out that much.

I'm glad you don't have Krivsky's job. There's quite a bit more to it than that. And if that's your criteria, you'd be out of the job before you know it.

Shaggy Sanchez
04-25-2007, 01:51 PM
OK I forgot that he was married so I guess he won't be going out on dates with random women.

Red Leader
04-25-2007, 01:51 PM
It has everything to do with it. His support network includes his wife, and hopefully she accompanies him on dates, nights on the town, watches over him during the off-season, etc.

I don't think I'd like it if my wife accompanied me on dates... :laugh:

paintmered
04-25-2007, 01:53 PM
I don't think I'd like it if my wife accompanied me on dates... :laugh:

http://www.northernsun.com/images/thumb/2458.jpg

:p:

Chip R
04-25-2007, 01:59 PM
It has everything to do with it. His support network (hopefully) includes his wife, and hopefully she accompanies him on dates, nights on the town, watches over him during the off-season, etc.


I know that she does but who is to say when he's on a road trip he gives Johnny Narron the slip and winds up at some crackhouse?

RedsManRick
04-25-2007, 02:02 PM
But one of the highest risk, as their track records are virtually nonexistant.

Well, I didn't mean tomorrow... thinking more 2009 or later.

Lockdwn11
04-25-2007, 02:03 PM
Dunn struck out 194 times in 2006 not 210. He also hit .234 as if that matters. .


Your right he struck out 194 witch is well lets just say ALOT.He only hit 234 last year and you dismiss it as if BA is of no matter.I don't post much on here but I do read this site daily and I would just like to know why Adam Dunn get a pass on here by most but most hammer JR I mean yea Griffey has been hurt alot as a Red but he is one of the best to play the game I am in no way saying that Griffey doesn't deserve some of it but some of you guys act like Dunn is the greatest thing going and I will just say he has alot of holes in his game he hits HRs true and Walks alot but other then that what does he do for the REDS. I don't see him improving year to year so he can be replaced by someone.

I would also like to say I think Dunn could be the player some of you think he is but he will have to change alot of things.

KronoRed
04-25-2007, 02:13 PM
i personally would let dunn go, but i would sign another offensive player in the offseason that is a 300 + caliber hitter, and doesn't strike out that much.

Sounds like Sean Casey

Benihana
04-25-2007, 02:15 PM
The way I look at it is that Jay Bruce is Griffey's replacement. Josh Hamilton is Austin Kearn's replacement. Adam Dunn does not have a replacement. If the Reds choose to let him go they're going to have to either have someone blow up on historic levels in the minors to replace him, or possibly pay more than what it would cost to keep Dunn to replace him.

couldn't agree more :thumbup:

Razor Shines
04-25-2007, 02:22 PM
That's if the league doesn't catch up to him. When is Kevin Maas scheduled to break Aaron's HR record? Is it this year or next? ;)

You're right Maas and Hamilton are exactly the same. Except Maas was drafted in the 22nd round, not even 22nd overall. Hamilton, as we all know by now, was drafted #1 overall. Hamilton has the talent to do what he's doing right now, Maas didn't. Hamilton's definitely not a lock to even have a good major league career, let alone a great one, but comparing him to Kevin Maas is kind of silly.

Unassisted
04-25-2007, 02:24 PM
I don't think I'd like it if my wife accompanied me on dates... :laugh:

RL, I don't think you want your wife to read into that sentence that you don't want to take her on dates anymore. ;)

Back to the thread topic:

It seems to me that piling high expectations on Hamilton is the surest way to push him toward an addiction relapse. I don't have a problem with him replacing Dunn eventually. But he doesn't to have the cinder block of those kind of massive expectations added to the load in his mental backpack. After all, the guy hasn't even been in the majors for a full month yet.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 03:26 PM
You're right Maas and Hamilton are exactly the same. Except Maas was drafted in the 22nd round, not even 22nd overall. Hamilton, as we all know by now, was drafted #1 overall. Hamilton has the talent to do what he's doing right now, Maas didn't. Hamilton's definitely not a lock to even have a good major league career, let alone a great one, but comparing him to Kevin Maas is kind of silly.

You are right, but my point is that the guy has no track record. Let's wait for the other teams to see him enough and form a scouting report on him before they start trading other players away because they've found the next Babe Ruth.

My comparison to Maas was just based on how a league can catch up to a player in quite a hurry.

Matt700wlw
04-25-2007, 03:31 PM
The thing we need to remember about Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. That's not a knock on him because I'm sure he would agree. He's recovering and doing well and that's great. But depending on Josh to stay clean and sober for the next several years is like depending on Jr. to stay healthy for a full season. It could happen but the odds are against it.

Hamilton is at least a year and a half (i believe it was 14 months during the Rule V draft), possibly more now, clean and sober. That's a good start....and a very good building block.

Griffey hasn't been healthy for that long since he got here :D

Wheelhouse
04-25-2007, 03:34 PM
Dunn is going to be a very good player for a long time--I used to be a critic but I think he's turned the corner in terms of his commitment and work ethic. I'd keep him.

Fullboat
04-25-2007, 04:08 PM
Hamilton isn't addicted to drugs anymore if he was he would
be getting the shakes in the dugout.A relapse is possible
if he was around drugs all the time but with travel,curfews,friends and
knowing the hell he went through I say he stays clean for good.

Chip R
04-25-2007, 04:25 PM
Hamilton is at least a year and a half (i believe it was 14 months during the Rule V draft), possibly more now, clean and sober. That's a good start....and a very good building block.

Griffey hasn't been healthy for that long since he got here :D


That's terrific. Couldn't be happier for him. I hope he stays clean and sober for the rest of his life. But that doesn't mean he's not going to have a relapse tomorrow or next month or next year or the year after that. But we already have people talking about him like he's going to be a fixture here for the next 5 years and all I'm saying is don't get too excited because the higher your hopes, the more disappointed you are when things don't work out. And I'm not exactly sure of his status but if he fails a drug test now, he may be gone from baseball for good. No Steve Howe 6 strikes and you're out. It'd be almost like saying, "Well, we've got Homer Bailey so we don't need any more pitching." No matter how you feel about Adam Dunn you know you can count on him to be in the lineup day in and day out.

Be glad for Josh. Celebrate his accomplishments. Just don't write his name in the lineup in ink for the next several years because there may come a time when he can't be found when you're getting ready for a game. And if that happens, odds are he wasn't kidnapped by Baravelli and Pinky.

edabbs44
04-25-2007, 04:56 PM
Hamilton isn't addicted to drugs anymore if he was he would
be getting the shakes in the dugout.A relapse is possible
if he was around drugs all the time but with travel,curfews,friends and
knowing the hell he went through I say he stays clean for good.

Yeah, all those curfews and friends did a lot for Gooden and Strawberry.

Kc61
04-25-2007, 04:57 PM
Dunn struck out 194 times in 2006 not 210. He also hit .234 as if that matters. There is no replacement for Adam Dunn in the Reds system.

Agree. I don't see any regular outfielder down there who will, in a season, strike out 194 times and hit .234.

Matt700wlw
04-25-2007, 05:00 PM
That's terrific. Couldn't be happier for him. I hope he stays clean and sober for the rest of his life. But that doesn't mean he's not going to have a relapse tomorrow or next month or next year or the year after that. But we already have people talking about him like he's going to be a fixture here for the next 5 years and all I'm saying is don't get too excited because the higher your hopes, the more disappointed you are when things don't work out. And I'm not exactly sure of his status but if he fails a drug test now, he may be gone from baseball for good. No Steve Howe 6 strikes and you're out. It'd be almost like saying, "Well, we've got Homer Bailey so we don't need any more pitching." No matter how you feel about Adam Dunn you know you can count on him to be in the lineup day in and day out.

Be glad for Josh. Celebrate his accomplishments. Just don't write his name in the lineup in ink for the next several years because there may come a time when he can't be found when you're getting ready for a game. And if that happens, odds are he wasn't kidnapped by Baravelli and Pinky.

I was being a bit sarcastic. I see your point. It could happen at anytime....to anybody who was ever addicted to anything...cigarettes, alcohol, hard drugs...doesn't matter.

If he stays clear, and I have faith at this point, with the support group he now has, and the determination, he can be a cog in this lineup for a long, long time.

NJReds
04-25-2007, 05:14 PM
Yeah, all those curfews and friends did a lot for Gooden and Strawberry.

I think the difference is that Hamilton hit rock bottom at a very young age and before he was in the majors. He wasn't a recreational drug user, he was a hardcore addict.

I don't know that Gooden every hit "rock bottom" ... Strawberry had a very low point, but never was at the level Hamilton reached. They both rehabbed in the hope of getting another contract. Hamilton was at death's door.

All that doesn't mean he won't relapse, but there are some differences between his experiences, compared to Strawberry and Gooden.

Shaggy Sanchez
04-25-2007, 05:38 PM
Since we are on the topic of his handlers, isn't it true that Johnny Narron was brought in for that sole purpose. My question is what happens if Jerry Narron is fired this year or whenever, will Johnny stick around for Josh if he feels his brother got a raw deal. If Johnny gets another opportunity or decides he is ready to retire do we have to find another baseball person that Hamilton trusts and knows to be his handler.

Dracodave
04-25-2007, 05:43 PM
The Reds hold Hamilton's rights for six years. He is Griffey's replacement.

Bingo. Hamilton is Griffey lite. Once everything fully kicks in, expect Hamilton to have a really good career.

UGADaddy
04-25-2007, 05:47 PM
I know I'm getting in late (serves me right for studying for finals and not checking the zone), but I love the idea behind this thread. Dunn strikes out too much and is a major liability in the field. I love the thought of a Hamilton-Freel-and Griffey OF this year, and Hamilton-Stubbs-Bruce a few years down the road.

What do you think the trade value of Dunn is right now? What about a package deal of him and Lohse? (I would LOVE to keep Lohse, but I think we all agree that if he keeps pitching this well, he'll be too much $$ for the Redlegs in the offseason.)

AmarilloRed
04-25-2007, 08:55 PM
I think Hamilton is the real deal. I wouldnt have started this thread if i didnt think he was. I think Hamilton has turned the corner and has a remote( but it is possible) chance to have a relapse. If he is completely recovered he could be compared to Griffey at the start of his career. Adam Dunn has always had potential but up to now, he has not lived up to it. That could change at any time. Josh Hamilton shows he is ready to live up to his potential NOW. He is more than ready to take over Dunns outfield spot.

griffeyfreak4
04-25-2007, 09:39 PM
I think Hamilton is the real deal. I wouldnt have started this thread if i didnt think he was. I think Hamilton has turned the corner and has a remote( but it is possible) chance to have a relapse. If he is completely recovered he could be compared to Griffey at the start of his career. Adam Dunn has always had potential but up to now, he has not lived up to it. That could change at any time. Josh Hamilton shows he is ready to live up to his potential NOW. He is more than ready to take over Dunns outfield spot.
Dude, relax. Remember a guy named Chris Shelton? He had a complete kick ass April, and by the end of the year, he was down in the minors, replaced by none other than the loved Sean Casey. Chill dude, its April.

I am by no means saying this is how Hamilton will end up, I am just saying take it one month at a time. Lets not give him $100 million yet....

Redlegs
04-25-2007, 10:41 PM
Dude, relax. Remember a guy named Chris Shelton?
Come on, man. I get your point, but Shelton was a 1st baseman who had a power surge. Josh Hamilton is a #1 overall pick who can run, hit, hit with power, has a great glove, and has a cannon for an arm. I believe the only thing that can slow Josh's progress is Josh's behavior. This guy could end up being the biggest steal in Reds history. Although, Morgan & Foster were both pretty big heists in their own right.

AmarilloRed
04-25-2007, 11:09 PM
1/3 with a hr, walk and strikeout tonight. Seems to me hes pretty consistant. So far hes a pretty big steal.

Jpup
04-26-2007, 07:02 AM
Agree. I don't see any regular outfielder down there who will, in a season, strike out 194 times and hit .234.

also none that will hit 40+ homers 3 years in a row and get on base 38% of the time. at least, not anytime soon.

indy_dave00
04-26-2007, 11:44 AM
As a human interest story Josh Hamilton is someone everyone wants to see do well. Yes, Josh was the #1 pick overall 8 years ago , and in spite of what we see his addiction has robbed him of valuable developmental time. Give him more than 50 or 60 plate appearances before declaring him a super star.

No Reds fan is pulling harder for Josh , to conquer his demons and succeed than I am , but we must temper our enthusiasm with reality that its early in the season. Give Josh time to hit his first slump and see how he reacts before declaring him an All Star.

Adam Dunn is what he is a power hitter who strikes out far too much , is a mediocre outfielder , but gets on base a high percentage by walking and drives in runs. To think Josh can replace his numbers this quickly is wild eyed dreaming.

If Josh gets 400-500 ab's hits .285 ,25 homers 75-85 rbi's , I'll be pleased beyond belief. He'll be 26 soon those kind of numbers to me will be very impressive for someone who had not played in so long.

Let Josh Hamilton , have time to grow and experience major league ball before putting the pressure of replacing Adam Dunn on this team. His past demons are still there let him build experience before exposing him to that.

smith288
04-26-2007, 12:23 PM
Josh may go back to drugs but...

"With God, all things are possible"

I think Josh is living that and I hope (and pray) he continues to.

AmarilloRed
04-27-2007, 02:12 AM
If he gets 400-500 abs, I cant see him getting less than 30-40 hrs, 90 rbis and a .300 ba. I really hope Adam Dunn improves his game and makes this thread unnnecessary. I would like to see them share an outfield the next 10 years. If Josh Hamilton outperforms Adam Dunn on the field. Krivsky will be hard-pressed to keep Adam Dunn on the roster. Dunn did hit .230 last year. I dont think Adam Dunn is irreplacepable with the way Hamilton is playing.

AmarilloRed
06-29-2007, 10:49 PM
I decided to do an update today. It seemed appropriate because of the rumors of Adam Dunn being traded, and the possibility Josh might have to pick up the offensive slack. Dunn right now has the same batting average, 10 more hrs and twice the rbis that Josh Hamilton does. Their OBP and slugging percentage is about the same. Hamilton has shown more plate discipline(42 strikeouts), but has shown some power (13 hrs in half a season). I am now willing to concede I was wildly optimistic about his potential. He may yet be that good a player, but for now he is a starting outfielder with some potential.He is good enough to be our starting right fielder, but he is not able to replace Adam Dunn this year. I could see him being able to do it after a couple of years of development, but for right now we need Adam Dunn's production.

Chi-Town Red
06-29-2007, 11:01 PM
I decided to do an update today. It seemed appropriate because of the rumors of Adam Dunn being traded, and the possibility Josh might have to pick up the offensive slack. Dunn right now has the same batting average, 10 more hrs and twice the rbis that Josh Hamilton does. Their OBP and slugging percentage is about the same. Hamilton has shown more plate discipline(42 strikeouts), but has shown some power (13 hrs in half a season). I am now willing to concede I was wildly optimistic about his potential. He may yet be that good a player, but for now he is a starting outfielder with some potential.He is good enough to be our starting right fielder, but he is not able to replace Adam Dunn this year. I could see him being able to do it after a couple of years of development, but for right now we need Adam Dunn's production. we need alot more than Dunn..but we need to keep him

HokieRed
06-29-2007, 11:06 PM
I'm still hoping to see an opening day 2008 outfield of Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey. 2009, Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce

AtomicDumpling
06-30-2007, 12:37 AM
I'm still hoping to see an opening day 2008 outfield of Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey. 2009, Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce

I agree with you. I think that is the best approach to take. Keep the productive players and pay them fair market value, while shedding the old and/or unproductive players like Hatteberg, Conine, Castro, Stanton, Valentin. Combine that with the expired contracts of Milton, Griffey, LaRue (we are still paying him) and Cormier (still paying him) and we should have plenty of money to spend on free agents while keeping Dunn too.

AmarilloRed
07-01-2007, 03:15 AM
I believe most Reds fans would like to keep Adam Dunn on the team. If he continues to hit.270 with his power, we could have a scenario where we are able to either trade him for a maximized return, or are able to sign him to a long-term deal in the off season in the 13-14 million dollar range. I am not sure if we will have the money to do that, but we need to think about both possibilities.