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44Magnum
04-27-2007, 12:22 PM
Adam Dunn is the Reds career leader in HR's per at bat ratio with 14.4.

I'm as frustrated as anyone with Dunn, but I thought I would try and be positive.

mroby85
04-27-2007, 12:58 PM
dunn has power, there is no doubting that, but there definately is doubt when it comes to his abillity as a pure hitter.

Always Red
04-27-2007, 01:22 PM
dunn has power, there is no doubting that, but there definately is doubt when it comes to his abillity as a pure hitter.

what is a "pure hitter"?

mroby85
04-27-2007, 01:51 PM
a guy that can get runners over, or hit a sac fly when you need it. basically a guy that handles the bat well and hits for a good average. I believe that term was used by Ted Williams.

rotnoid
04-27-2007, 01:59 PM
what is a "pure hitter"?


You got me thinking, so I did a google search for "pure hitter." After I got past the ads for a training device called the Pure Hitter, I found a debate on the difference between a pure hitter and a professional hitter. The argument seems to be whether there is a difference or not. The best explanation I could find was basically that pure hitters have natural talent and professional hitters are made by practice. I'm not sure how you can tell the difference at the majors among the top hitters in the game, but one site said that pure hitters could roll out of bed Christmas morning and hit line drives up the middle. There's no statistical evidence here, it's mostly speculation and opinion. So, I'm guessing we should call up Dunn after opening up the stocking next December 25 and see if he wants to take some BP. ;)

Perhaps the only way to see the difference between pure hitters and professional hitters is to go to a little league field. The kid swatting dingers in tee ball could be a pure hitter. The kid missing the tee and hurting dad in the groin, (while he earns $10,000 for America's funniest home video), probably is not. Of course, this all presupposes a natural ability to hit. It's nature versus nurture on a sports stage. Which is right? Don't ask me, I'm just trying to spark conversation...

Always Red
04-27-2007, 02:05 PM
a guy that can get runners over, or hit a sac fly when you need it. basically a guy that handles the bat well and hits for a good average. I believe that term was used by Ted Williams.

Well, I agree that Dunn doesn't do things very well. He does create a lot of runs for the Reds, though.

AmarilloRed
04-27-2007, 02:25 PM
He has always been able to hit home runs. He is country-strong. If he could hit .270 and drive people in he would be a much better player.

TeamBoone
04-27-2007, 03:54 PM
a guy that can get runners over, or hit a sac fly when you need it. basically a guy that handles the bat well and hits for a good average. I believe that term was used by Ted Williams.

Sounds like Sean Casey to me.... and we all know how 'loved' he was on this board. Most thought he was worthless.

TeamBoone
04-27-2007, 03:56 PM
Well, I agree that Dunn doesn't do things very well. He does create a lot of runs for the Reds, though.

Not according to Marty... yesterday he stressed (and repeated) that he's a non-run producer. I argued the point on the game thread the same as you... I believe he's led the team in RBI for the past three years.

No one responded.

Always Red
04-27-2007, 04:04 PM
Not according to Marty... yesterday he stressed (and repeated) that he's a non-run producer. I argued the point on the game thread the same as you... I believe he's led the team in RBI for the past three years.

No one responded.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/RC_active.shtml

TB, I love Marty, and I agree with about 80% of what he says. The above link is a list of all active MLB players ranked by Runs Created (RC).

The only player who is Dunn's age who has created more runs than him is Sir Albert, who is truly an incredible hitter. No one younger than Dunn has created more runs than Adam has, and only Pujols has "out RC'd" him.

Marty is wrong about this. I understand his frustration with Dunn. The thing that frustrates me the most about Adam is when he takes a called 3rd strike with RISP. I don't have numbers on it, but it happens enough that I notice it, and a poster mentioned it yesterday also, IIRC.

Yachtzee
04-27-2007, 04:28 PM
a guy that can get runners over, or hit a sac fly when you need it. basically a guy that handles the bat well and hits for a good average. I believe that term was used by Ted Williams.

Actually, I think Ted Williams would probably look more favorably on a patient Adam Dunn-type hitter than a guy who slaps at the ball and hits a lot of sac flies. He himself wasn't exactly known for things like sac flies and he preferred to move the runners over by waiting for his pitch and driving it. IIRC, he was also subject to a shift similar to what Adam Dunn faces. I think I heard he used to smash his hits right through it rather than deprive himself of power by trying to slap the ball to the other field. I could be mistaken though. There are folks here who have had the opportunity to read is "Science of Hitting" who would be able to shed more light on his hitting philosophy.

Yachtzee
04-27-2007, 04:40 PM
Not according to Marty... yesterday he stressed (and repeated) that he's a non-run producer. I argued the point on the game thread the same as you... I believe he's led the team in RBI for the past three years.

No one responded.

It always seems to be the way when talking about Dunn. Some folks will look at Ks and BARISP, but conveniently ignore the fact that he leads the team in important categories like not making outs and scoring runs. Raise that fact and people go quiet or redirect. He's not the perfect hitter, but to say he's not a run producer is willful ignorance.

The more I think about it, the more I think guys like Marty don't like Ks because it looks embarrassing rather than any kind of time spend determining whether Ks are worse than any other kind of out.

Joseph
04-27-2007, 05:04 PM
Would people complain less about Dunn if he hit .270, with 20 hrs, 90 RBI and only struck out about 110 times a year with say 80 walks?

BRM
04-27-2007, 05:07 PM
Would people complain less about Dunn if he hit .270, with 20 hrs, 90 RBI and only struck out about 110 times a year with say 80 walks?

Absolutely. It's all about K's and Batting Average for lots of fans.

dougdirt
04-27-2007, 05:08 PM
A pure hitter is a guy who moves runners over and hits sac flies? Sac flies are pure luck. No one goes to the plate thinking 'Im going to hit this ball 280 feet in the air' then goes and does it. If guys could control that wouldnt they go out there and go 'Im going to his this thing 280 feet into the gap'? A sac fly is a failed hit that in turn produced something for the team when it wasn't what you were trying to do.

I had a guy tell me yesterday he would take a guy who hits .280 with a .400 OBP with 20 HRs, 100 RBI and 50 K's over Adam Dunn every day of the week. I agree with him completely. Since 2004 that season has happened twice. Barry Bonds in 2004 and Albert Pujols in 2006.

Matt700wlw
04-27-2007, 05:09 PM
Adam Dunn is the Reds career leader in HR's per at bat ratio with 14.4.


Not really surprising, but it still doesn't make him a good hitter :p:


Also, how many of those came with nobody on, and in a blowout :p:

RichRed
04-27-2007, 05:11 PM
The more I think about it, the more I think guys like Marty don't like Ks because it looks embarrassing rather than any kind of time spend determining whether Ks are worse than any other kind of out.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings."

--Rob Neyer

Joseph
04-27-2007, 05:12 PM
Absolutely. It's all about K's and Batting Average for lots of fans.

I suspect you are right, but I just find it flabbergasting to think people would prefer better paint on the walls to a more solidly produced structure.

I mean accounting for over 200 runs a year is special.

Ron Madden
04-27-2007, 05:15 PM
Not really surprising, but it still doesn't make him a good hitter :p:


Also, how many of those came with nobody on, and in a blowout :p:


Marty really has you brainwashed doesn't he? :p:

Matt700wlw
04-27-2007, 05:17 PM
Marty really has you brainwashed doesn't he? :p:

:)

Yachtzee
04-27-2007, 05:22 PM
Marty really has you brainwashed doesn't he? :p:

He's the guy you see with the shaved head, wearing a set of furry gray headphones to simulate the look of the poofy-haired one. :p:

Redsland
04-27-2007, 05:31 PM
The thing that frustrates me the most about Adam is when he takes a called 3rd strike with RISP. I don't have numbers on it, but it happens enough that I notice it, and a poster mentioned it yesterday also, IIRC.
I don't have numbers on it, either, but here are some three-year splits for Dunn with RISP and overall.


With RISP: Overall:
AB: 407 1,672
RBI: 177 295
BB: 139 334
K: 134 557
AVG: .236 .249
OBP: .434 .380
SLG: .538 .533
OPS: .972 .913

Okay, what do we see?

First of all, when there are RISP, Adam gets an RBI every 2.3 AB (177/407). Overall, it takes him 5.7 AB to get an RBI (295/1,672). That means that the people who say he only drives in himself are dead wrong.

Secondly, we see that with RISP, Dunn gets a walk every 2.9 AB (139/407). Overall it takes him 5.0 AB to work a walk (334/1,672). That means Adam is getting pitched around whenever there are RISP, which should surprise no one. It also shows that Adam has the discipline to take a base when one is offered.

Thirdly, and this is very interesting, when there are RISP, Adam strikes out once every 3.0 AB (134/407). Overall, Adam strikes out once every (wait for it) 3.0 AB (557/1,672). Look at that again. There’s no change at all in the rate. He’s not choking. He’s not flailing. And the results speak for themselves in the final four lines above. Or at least they should. With RISP, he adds 54 points to his OBP and 59 points to his OPS.

Matt700wlw
04-27-2007, 05:36 PM
He's the guy you see with the shaved head, wearing a set of furry gray headphones to simulate the look of the poofy-haired one. :p:

That's my evil twin.

Always Red
04-27-2007, 05:39 PM
Thirdly, and this is very interesting, when there are RISP, Adam strikes out once every 3.0 AB (134/407). Overall, Adam strikes out once every (wait for it) 3.0 AB (557/1,672). Look at that again. There’s no change at all in the rate. He’s not choking. He’s not flailing. And the results speak for themselves in the final four lines above. Or at least they should. With RISP, he adds 54 points to his OBP and 59 points to his OPS.

good work, Redsland. :thumbup:

I knew from another post I had read the other day that Dunn actually does better with RISP (it might've been woy, he's always proving Dunn bashers wrong) than not. Just as you have shown, again.

Adam Dunn is a better hitter with RISP than he is when they're not in scoring position. It's true. :beerme:

I was referring specifically to called third strikes, as opposed to a swinging third strike. I don't know if there is any way to show that? None that I know of.

And it's just as likely that I'm wrong about that, as is the case with most of the other Adam Dunn myths that float around here.

RichRed
04-27-2007, 05:39 PM
I don't have numbers on it, either, but here are some three-year splits for Dunn with RISP and overall.


With RISP: Overall:
AB: 407 1,672
RBI: 177 295
BB: 139 334
K: 134 557
AVG: .236 .249
OBP: .434 .380
SLG: .538 .533
OPS: .972 .913

Okay, what do we see?

First of all, when there are RISP, Adam gets an RBI every 2.3 AB (177/407). Overall, it takes him 5.7 AB to get an RBI (295/1,672). That means that the people who say he only drives in himself are dead wrong.

Secondly, we see that with RISP, Dunn gets a walk every 2.9 AB (139/407). Overall it takes him 5.0 AB to work a walk (334/1,672). That means Adam is getting pitched around whenever there are RISP, which should surprise no one. It also shows that Adam has the discipline to take a base when one is offered.

Thirdly, and this is very interesting, when there are RISP, Adam strikes out once every 3.0 AB (134/407). Overall, Adam strikes out once every (wait for it) 3.0 AB (557/1,672). Look at that again. There’s no change at all in the rate. He’s not choking. He’s not flailing. And the results speak for themselves in the final four lines above. Or at least they should. With RISP, he adds 54 points to his OBP and 59 points to his OPS.

Somebody sticky this post and get a copy to Marty, stat. Nice one, Redsland.

Matt700wlw
04-27-2007, 05:40 PM
Somebody sticky this post and get a copy to Marty, stat. Nice one, Redsland.

Email it to him....he won't get it until next weekend, but still...

mtj@redsonradio.com

Redsland
04-27-2007, 05:44 PM
I was referring specifically to called third strikes, as opposed to a swinging third strike. I don't know if there is any way to show that? None that I know of.
Yeah, I know you were; but like you, I couldn't find anything that specific. It would be interesting to know, though. :beerme:

RichRed
04-27-2007, 05:53 PM
Email it to him....he won't get it until next weekend, but still...

mtj@redsonradio.com

Hey, if Redsland gives me permission, I'll do it. I promise to be civil; after all, I grew up listening to the guy. I'd be very interested in his response.

Matt700wlw
04-27-2007, 05:57 PM
Hey, if Redsland gives me permission, I'll do it. I promise to be civil; after all, I grew up listening to the guy. I'd be very interested in his response.

Give him your opinion, respectfully, and keep it clean

RichRed
04-27-2007, 05:58 PM
Give him your opinion, respectfully, and keep it clean

Will do.

Fil3232
04-27-2007, 05:58 PM
Redsland, thanks for the info. Very informative stuff.

And I agree that Marty needs to see this stuff. I just can't imagine what his response would/will be.

dougdirt
04-27-2007, 06:04 PM
Redsland, thanks for the info. Very informative stuff.

And I agree that Marty needs to see this stuff. I just can't imagine what his response would/will be.

'He could be better'
'Its not good enough'
'He still doesnt hit well'

I bet it would be something along those lines.

Ron Madden
04-27-2007, 06:04 PM
Redsland, thanks for the info. Very informative stuff.

And I agree that Marty needs to see this stuff. I just can't imagine what his response would/will be.

He'll just blow it off. Marty has his mind made up and he aint changin' it.


I remember Pedro and Steel sent him infoe like this and he blew it off.

RichRed
04-27-2007, 06:06 PM
He'll just blow it off. Marty has his mind made up and he aint changin' it.


I remember Pedro and Steel sent him infoe like this and he blew it off.

Well, maybe if a few hundred more of us do it...:)

Ron Madden
04-27-2007, 06:11 PM
Well, maybe if a few hundred more of us do it...:)

Go for it. :thumbup:

Dom Heffner
04-27-2007, 06:16 PM
One of Marty's favorite sayings is, "I was here before you and I'll be here after you've gone," or something similar.

Funny thing is, the game could say the same thing to Marty, and the game is no longer played how it was when Marty started following baseball.

I don't think he'll ever be convinced that walks and homeruns produce more runs than sacrifice flies, ground outs, and stolen bases.

TeamBoone
04-27-2007, 09:51 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/RC_active.shtml

The only player who is Dunn's age who has created more runs than him is Sir Albert, who is truly an incredible hitter. No one younger than Dunn has created more runs than Adam has, and only Pujols has "out RC'd" him.

Marty is wrong about this. I understand his frustration with Dunn. The thing that frustrates me the most about Adam is when he takes a called 3rd strike with RISP. I don't have numbers on it, but it happens enough that I notice it, and a poster mentioned it yesterday also, IIRC.

I wish SOMEONE would inform him of this with enough authority or stats backup that he'd believe it. I would have loved to have seen him put on the spot about it during the rain delay.

Redsland
04-28-2007, 03:26 PM
Hey, if Redsland gives me permission, I'll do it. I promise to be civil; after all, I grew up listening to the guy.
Go nuts. But please stick to the numbers, plus any of your own commentary that you care to add, rather than mine. (I don't need the publicity.) :beerme:

Yachtzee
04-28-2007, 04:46 PM
Go nuts. But please stick to the numbers, plus any of your own commentary that you care to add, rather than mine. (I don't need the publicity.) :beerme:

The Witness Protection Program?

SunDeck
04-28-2007, 05:39 PM
what is a "pure hitter"?

Clemente
Pujols
Williams

Those are the kinds of guys I think of- tough, tough outs, who hit the ball no matter where it is and who are always a threat to go deep. I think of guys against whom there is no out pitch.

I'll have to rely on my pop's memory of Clemente, but he said he saw him do all of those things; take an outside pitch and punch it over the opposite field wall with his back foot of the ground kinds of things.

George Foster
04-29-2007, 01:15 AM
I want Dunn to be successful, I really do. My team needs for him to be successful. We can debate stats all day long, but when the game is on the line, in the 9th, with the winning run on third, 2 out, I don't want him batting. Do you?

Marge'sMullet
04-29-2007, 06:25 AM
I want Dunn to be successful, I really do. My team needs for him to be successful. We can debate stats all day long, but when the game is on the line, in the 9th, with the winning run on third, 2 out, I don't want him batting. Do you?

LOL, I would rather have Javier batting.


MY argument about Dunn is this. HAS HE IMPROVED OVER HIS 6 YEARS IN THE MARJORS? THE ANSWER IS........NO, HE HAS NOT. NOT IN ONE AREA OF THE GAME.
Guys I'm not just talking JUST about batting. He hasn't improved in fielding or base running. The guy is 27 years old. We should be seeing his best. His best was in 2004. Adam Dunn's "career year".

He hasn't learned anything anything anything. He continues to make all the same mistakes year after year. Swing at bad pitches out of the zone and watching the ones rights down broadway for strike three. Maybe he has a learning disability or two.

GAC
04-29-2007, 07:32 AM
Actually, I think Ted Williams would probably look more favorably on a patient Adam Dunn-type hitter than a guy who slaps at the ball and hits a lot of sac flies. He himself wasn't exactly known for things like sac flies and he preferred to move the runners over by waiting for his pitch and driving it. IIRC, he was also subject to a shift similar to what Adam Dunn faces. I think I heard he used to smash his hits right through it rather than deprive himself of power by trying to slap the ball to the other field. I could be mistaken though. There are folks here who have had the opportunity to read is "Science of Hitting" who would be able to shed more light on his hitting philosophy.

Ted Williams would be all over Dunn right now, the way he is presenting himself at the plate. IMHO, Dunn's problem AGAIN is being too selective and then finding himself in the hole 0-2 where he then is at a pitcher's mercy.

He had 4 RBIs the first 2 games of the season and 6 since. In the last 2 1/2 weeks, Dunn has had 1 Hr and 3 RBIs. His B/A, as well as his OB% and SLG% are dropping like a rock. That's not bashing Adam Dunn - that's simply saying what he is doing is unacceptable, and he needs to be kicked in the arse and get it together.

Yachtzee
04-29-2007, 12:14 PM
Ted Williams would be all over Dunn right now, the way he is presenting himself at the plate. IMHO, Dunn's problem AGAIN is being too selective and then finding himself in the hole 0-2 where he then is at a pitcher's mercy.

He had 4 RBIs the first 2 games of the season and 6 since. In the last 2 1/2 weeks, Dunn has had 1 Hr and 3 RBIs. His B/A, as well as his OB% and SLG% are dropping like a rock. That's not bashing Adam Dunn - that's simply saying what he is doing is unacceptable, and he needs to be kicked in the arse and get it together.

I think Ted Williams would have been lambasting the Reds in their choice of managers and hitting coaches telling him to be more aggressive and expand his strike zone. I feel like the Reds have done more to screw up his approach than help him. All that talk about being more aggressive, not taking walks, trying to drive in runs, no wonder he takes good pitches and chases stuff in the dirt. Dunn was a great hitter when he came up and the Reds have done nothing but complain about his approach and try to "fix" it.

Spring~Fields
04-29-2007, 12:34 PM
Ted Williams would be all over Dunn right now, the way he is presenting himself at the plate. IMHO, Dunn's problem AGAIN is being too selective and then finding himself in the hole 0-2 where he then is at a pitcher's mercy.

He had 4 RBIs the first 2 games of the season and 6 since. In the last 2 1/2 weeks, Dunn has had 1 Hr and 3 RBIs. His B/A, as well as his OB% and SLG% are dropping like a rock. That's not bashing Adam Dunn - that's simply saying what he is doing is unacceptable, and he needs to be kicked in the arse and get it together.

I would just like to know why a carpenter that never played above A ball has much better stats than him? Is it the lefty vs righty thing or just talent?

259 .357 .482 .840
288 .391 .661 1.052

Highlifeman21
04-29-2007, 06:02 PM
Actually, I think Ted Williams would probably look more favorably on a patient Adam Dunn-type hitter than a guy who slaps at the ball and hits a lot of sac flies. He himself wasn't exactly known for things like sac flies and he preferred to move the runners over by waiting for his pitch and driving it. IIRC, he was also subject to a shift similar to what Adam Dunn faces. I think I heard he used to smash his hits right through it rather than deprive himself of power by trying to slap the ball to the other field. I could be mistaken though. There are folks here who have had the opportunity to read is "Science of Hitting" who would be able to shed more light on his hitting philosophy.


Great read.

I can't find the image, and maybe Cyclone can (he's posted it on here before) about Williams' zone and his AVG for balls in certain zones.

The zone basically showed that Williams had probably the best ability to turn on a baseball of anyone ever to play the game.

coachw513
04-29-2007, 07:01 PM
I don't have numbers on it, either, but here are some three-year splits for Dunn with RISP and overall.


With RISP: Overall:
AB: 407 1,672
RBI: 177 295
BB: 139 334
K: 134 557
AVG: .236 .249
OBP: .434 .380
SLG: .538 .533
OPS: .972 .913

Okay, what do we see?

First of all, when there are RISP, Adam gets an RBI every 2.3 AB (177/407). Overall, it takes him 5.7 AB to get an RBI (295/1,672). That means that the people who say he only drives in himself are dead wrong.

Secondly, we see that with RISP, Dunn gets a walk every 2.9 AB (139/407). Overall it takes him 5.0 AB to work a walk (334/1,672). That means Adam is getting pitched around whenever there are RISP, which should surprise no one. It also shows that Adam has the discipline to take a base when one is offered.

Thirdly, and this is very interesting, when there are RISP, Adam strikes out once every 3.0 AB (134/407). Overall, Adam strikes out once every (wait for it) 3.0 AB (557/1,672). Look at that again. There’s no change at all in the rate. He’s not choking. He’s not flailing. And the results speak for themselves in the final four lines above. Or at least they should. With RISP, he adds 54 points to his OBP and 59 points to his OPS.

what a great post...thanks for the information!! :beerme:

TeamBoone
04-29-2007, 07:11 PM
Hmmm, I wonder how many times he's scored a runner who was NOT in scoring position... like today for instance.