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TOBTTReds
04-28-2007, 06:23 PM
For those of you that didn't dig through the 30 page thread on Deno's trade, we have received:

Marcus McBeth - RP

10 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 5 saves in AAA this year.


Reds acquired RHP Marcus McBeth from the Athletics as one of the players to be named in the Chris Denorfia deal.

That's better than we thought they'd do for an injured outfielder. McBeth, probably Oakland's top relief prospect, had a 1.80 ERA and a 6/3 K/BB ratio in 10 innings for Triple-A Sacramento. He is 26 years old, but he was an outfielder before being turned into a reliever prior to the 2005 season. If he keeps making progress, he could have a future as a setup man. The Reds will likely give him a look later this season.

oneupper
04-28-2007, 06:26 PM
What's the timetable on this guy?
When do we have to add him to the ML Roster to avoid losing him via Rule V?

indy_dave00
04-28-2007, 06:32 PM
As far as I'm concerned acquiring Marcus McBride , a decent prospect pick for cult hero Chris Denorfia is already a pretty decent trade.

Some people in my opinion over value Deno's real ability, he's a hustler and good outfielder but at best a journeyman 4th or 5th outfielder on the big league level.

If the 2nd player from the A's has any real chance of making the majors I'd declare this a pretty good trade for the Reds.

RedsManRick
04-28-2007, 06:33 PM
Timetable is virtually now. His FB/CU combo will play in the majors today, but probably as a 7th inning guy. He also has a passable slider. With Salmon coming up, I could see him becoming the Louisville closer.

marcshoe
04-28-2007, 06:33 PM
Lay on Macduff!

marcshoe
04-28-2007, 06:39 PM
This site (http://athletics.scout.com/2/529203.html), too, says he has a mid-nineties fastball and a good change. Full of sound and fury signifying...something? Sorry. I'll try to stop this, but I just finished teaching Macbeth. ;)

jmac
04-28-2007, 06:41 PM
For those of you that didn't dig through the 30 page thread

Thanks for condensing it down alittle :thumbup:

Natty Redlocks
04-28-2007, 06:43 PM
This site (http://athletics.scout.com/2/529203.html), too, says he has a mid-nineties fastball and a good change. Full of sound and fury signifying...something? Sorry. I'll try to stop this, but I just finished teaching Macbeth. ;)

Can you teach him to throw strikes consistently?;)

oneupper
04-28-2007, 06:43 PM
So McBeth's intro music will be Kenny Rogers' "Lady"?

TOBTTReds
04-28-2007, 06:48 PM
I think this is a great trade already too. Deno was obviously worthless this year, and honestly, how could he have helped this team that will have Freel, Ham, Dunn, Griffey in the OF?

jmac
04-28-2007, 06:56 PM
I think this is a great trade already too. Deno was obviously worthless this year, and honestly, how could he have helped this team that will have Freel, Ham, Dunn, Griffey in the OF?
True and maybe he can be our "joe nathan" before long.

JaxRed
04-28-2007, 07:00 PM
How long can this thread remain "FCB-free"?

HumnHilghtFreel
04-28-2007, 07:02 PM
How long can this thread remain "FCB-free"?

ETA- 12 minutes

oneupper
04-28-2007, 07:04 PM
I think this is a great trade already too. Deno was obviously worthless this year, and honestly, how could he have helped this team that will have Freel, Ham, Dunn, Griffey in the OF?

When Hopper, Crosby and Conine could be your choices for RH OF in 2008, I'd say Deno was a REALLY good option.

Griffey is ultra-frail, Ham is still an uncertain quantity (can he hit LH?...not sure yet), Dunn will be in an option year and frankly IMO Freel is not as good a healthy Deno.

Deno is going to be starting for the A's in CF in 2008. I sure hope McBeth is a lights-out closer for us by then.

Since I doubt it (it goes against Narron's way of thinking)...thumbs down on this trade. :thumbdown

edabbs44
04-28-2007, 07:09 PM
I think this is a great trade already too. Deno was obviously worthless this year, and honestly, how could he have helped this team that will have Freel, Ham, Dunn, Griffey in the OF?

Just because WK got a warm body back doesn't mean this was a great trade. Freel and Griffey are one ball in the gap away from a long DL stint. Dunn hasn't looked too spectacular lately and Hamilton has been a big surprise but could hit the wall at any time. Time will tell if this trade was truly great either way.

marcshoe
04-28-2007, 07:13 PM
Can you teach him to throw strikes consistently?;)

Just get his wife to challenge his manhood, and he'll do whatever she asks. If that doesn't work, hire three witches....:p:

jojo
04-28-2007, 07:23 PM
Here's what Kevin Goldstein wrote about McBeth in January (classified as an average prospect)

Marcus McBeth, rhp
DOB: 8/23/80
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 4th round, 2001, University of South Carolina
What he did in 2006: 0.00 ERA at High A (8.2-1-2-14); 2.48 ERA at AA (54.1-43-20-65); 11.05 ERA at AAA (7.1-7-6-7)
The Good: Converted outfielder showed remarkable feel for his craft in just his second year on the mound, taking to the closer's role like a veteran and reaching Triple-A. Fastball sits at 92-94 mph while slider has become a viable offering with good sink and run. His best pitch is a changeup, which one official calls the best in the system and "like something out of a Bugs Bunny cartoon it just stops."
The Bad: Still new to pitching, McBeth is still learning the mental side of the game when it comes to exploiting hitter's weaknesses. His stuff falls just short of closer-worthy, and he turns 27 during the year, so there's no projection there.
The Irrelevant: McBeth's final hitting line in 1010 pro plate appearances is .233/.311/.359 with 236 strikeouts in 881 at-bats.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A late-innings reliever.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low McBeth will begin the year closing at Triple-A Sacramento, but will likely make his big-league debut at some point in the season.

bthomasiscool
04-28-2007, 07:39 PM
When Hopper, Crosby and Conine could be your choices for RH OF in 2008, I'd say Deno was a REALLY good option.

Griffey is ultra-frail, Ham is still an uncertain quantity (can he hit LH?...not sure yet), Dunn will be in an option year and frankly IMO Freel is not as good a healthy Deno.

Deno is going to be starting for the A's in CF in 2008. I sure hope McBeth is a lights-out closer for us by then.

Since I doubt it (it goes against Narron's way of thinking)...thumbs down on this trade. :thumbdown

What has Deno really proven at the MLB level to be considered that much better than Freel? No way imo Hopper, Crosby or Conine start RF too often in 08'.

marcshoe
04-28-2007, 07:41 PM
I understand that McBeth has a lot of trouble with batters who were born by C-section.

mth123
04-28-2007, 07:42 PM
Posted this about the trade in the big thread. I think its a good deal.




Anyone think the cash involved is what facilitated the Cormier move? I have to wonder. It seems like most of the moves last year involved some cash to pay for them. I think the Reds got some cash with Arroyo and Lohse, no?

I'd say a power arm that becomes a top 10 prospect, cash to cover a previous mistake and another player on the way is a pretty good return for a guy who doesn't seem to fit in the teams plans.

I really like Deno, but Ltlabner is right, he is unproven and looks to be 5th on the depth chart even when healthy. When Griffey goes, Bruce will take his spot leaving Deno still 5th behind Dunn, Hamilton, Freel and Griffey/Bruce. Can't argue with the return and McBeth and the cash help this year IMO.

Tony Cloninger
04-28-2007, 07:43 PM
People do not think that the next Greg Gross (and that's being nice in regards to comparisons) cannot be replaced by anyone in the minors within 1 year?

jojo
04-28-2007, 07:44 PM
Posted this about the trade in the big thread. I think its a good deal.

how much cash was involved?

corkedbat
04-28-2007, 07:48 PM
Not bad. Wonder what the criteria is for PTBNL Part Deux? Probably depends on if Deno makes it back this year and how he performs.

redsmetz
04-28-2007, 08:01 PM
Not bad. Wonder what the criteria is for PTBNL Part Deux? Probably depends on if Deno makes it back this year and how he performs.

As I understand, a list of players is agreed to ahead of time and that the traded players performance does not indicate a better player or not. The delay often times is because a player is not eligible to be traded, hence the June date I thought I saw mentioned in today's paper. That would indicate that it's a first year draft player who can't be traded until June. Someone correct me if that's not right.

oneupper
04-28-2007, 08:14 PM
What has Deno really proven at the MLB level to be considered that much better than Freel? No way imo Hopper, Crosby or Conine start RF too often in 08'.

Freel is a low bar to hurdle. He's not a very good player (exciting yes, good no). I'll bet Deno's 2008 vs. Freel's 2008 right now...no doubt.

Now you're pretty much stuck with Freel in CF for the next two years. He's way too inconsistent and injury-prone. It's a huge risk.

savafan
04-28-2007, 08:20 PM
Why do the A's have so many minor league pitching "prospects" over the age of 25? Doesn't that seem a bit old to anyone else?

Dracodave
04-28-2007, 08:42 PM
Why do the A's have so many minor league pitching "prospects" over the age of 25? Doesn't that seem a bit old to anyone else?

Not when McBeth converted from outfield/shortstop to pitching. The age makes sense for him, he's only been pitching for what appears to be two to three years max. Lots of miles left on a arm that's very good.

savafan
04-28-2007, 08:44 PM
Not when McBeth converted from outfield/shortstop to pitching. The age makes sense for him, he's only been pitching for what appears to be two to three years max. Lots of miles left on a arm that's very good.

Fair enough on McBeth, I'm just looking at the rest of their minor league pitchers. Seems like they're all kinda old.

Anyway...:

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_456121.jpg

Dracodave
04-28-2007, 08:50 PM
I've wondered the same thing about Beane but then again, why start the arb clock till they hit their peak value? They can then be cheaply replaced within a few years. No big contracts needed.

Also look at Oaklands staff, theres not many spots I'd transfer certain players over others either.

Chip R
04-28-2007, 09:24 PM
Now we have a problem here. We can't say Marcus' last name out loud cause it's bad luck. We have to call him, "The Scottish Play(er)". ;)

IslandRed
04-28-2007, 09:29 PM
Why do the A's have so many minor league pitching "prospects" over the age of 25? Doesn't that seem a bit old to anyone else?

It's a side effect of drafting almost exclusively from the college ranks. All their guys are still in their mid-20s before the A's have to start making the fish-or-cut-bait decisions.

savafan
04-28-2007, 10:41 PM
Now we have a problem here. We can't say Marcus' last name out loud cause it's bad luck. We have to call him, "The Scottish Play(er)". ;)

Except he's Irish.

redsupport
04-28-2007, 11:52 PM
Banquo is forlorn

marcshoe
04-28-2007, 11:55 PM
...and on a related note, if McBeth starts acting weird at the after-game spread, people might want to watch out.

Reds1
04-29-2007, 12:02 AM
OF easier to find than power pitchers. This is great risk especially with Deno having major surgery and gone this year. I like it. I was never big on Deno. I always saw him as the 5 OF, but don't get me wrong he would be a good #25 guy, but in the scheme of things not that big of a deal. Hope it works out.

Dracodave
04-29-2007, 12:20 AM
OF easier to find than power pitchers. This is great risk especially with Deno having major surgery and gone this year. I like it. I was never big on Deno. I always saw him as the 5 OF, but don't get me wrong he would be a good #25 guy, but in the scheme of things not that big of a deal. Hope it works out.

Deno had a good glove with a projected number 2 bat. Thats why we got McBeth. Thats why also why I am slightly happy he was sent to Oakland. Beanes gotta love the way he plays defense and how he takes good at bats.

That was a pretty good trade by Krivisky, period.

Reds1
04-29-2007, 01:47 AM
Deno had a good glove with a projected number 2 bat. Thats why we got McBeth. Thats why also why I am slightly happy he was sent to Oakland. Beanes gotta love the way he plays defense and how he takes good at bats.

That was a pretty good trade by Krivisky, period.

I always thought he was overrated. No power and you don't know what you have after a major injury like this. It was a great trade! Hamilton makes it easy to forget him. I wish him all the best. I'd personally take Freel over him as he can play more positions and I just love the spark. NIght

Ron Madden
04-29-2007, 01:59 AM
Deno has a good chance to be the A's starting CFer in 2008.

I hope he has a long healthy and productive career.

WVRedsFan
04-29-2007, 02:25 AM
Fair enough on McBeth, I'm just looking at the rest of their minor league pitchers. Seems like they're all kinda old.

Anyway...:

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_456121.jpg

That brings up another issue. If the Reds were so gosh-darned ready to deal Deno, even before he was injured, why did they parade him in the new unis at the unveiling at RedsFest? Just strikes me as strange.

harangatang
04-29-2007, 02:28 AM
That brings up another issue. If the Reds were so gosh-darned ready to deal Deno, even before he was injured, why did they parade him in the new unis at the unveiling at RedsFest? Just strikes me as strange.Probably because everyone else like Griffey and Dunn tend to stay away from those kind of events. I think Griff has been at Redsfest once but I don;t think it was for very long.

Topcat
04-29-2007, 05:19 AM
Deno had a good glove with a projected number 2 bat. Thats why we got McBeth. Thats why also why I am slightly happy he was sent to Oakland. Beanes gotta love the way he plays defense and how he takes good at bats.

That was a pretty good trade by Krivisky, period.


Don't you find it shocking that the oh so predicted crap we have read to be speculated as a return is not the case?:p: To summarize Redszone is the home of over valuing prospects and slamming the return. God forbid the Red's go out and sign a established talent in the OF next year with Miltys salary gone and other changes, nah that could never happen. The one thing I have learned today after reading NFL draft boards is "fans" over react and as a whole never own up for there mistakes and fast judgments on talent evaluation.

BEETTLEBUG
04-29-2007, 10:15 AM
What is chance We still could get Brad Halsey in this deal or to complete Sarloos deal?

mth123
04-29-2007, 10:20 AM
What is chance We still could get Brad Halsey in this deal or to complete Sarloos deal?

Probably pretty good. Do we really want him? Sounds like he still may have an arm problem. We already have Majewski to fill that role.

Seriously, Halsey would be another guy to add to the glut that could be run out there if the hopefuls ahead of him prove to be poor. There is value in that. I'd like WK to acquire guys better than the glut or move to a different need like minor league catcher with promise.

redsmetz
04-29-2007, 10:24 AM
That brings up another issue. If the Reds were so gosh-darned ready to deal Deno, even before he was injured, why did they parade him in the new unis at the unveiling at RedsFest? Just strikes me as strange.

I don't think that was the case in December. According to Krivsky in the paper, they were looking to make this move in April just prior Denorfia getting hurt. Much changed between those times - particularly the play of Hamilton. Denorfia at that point became the proverbial "fifth wheel".

Newman4
04-29-2007, 10:27 AM
Why do the A's have so many minor league pitching "prospects" over the age of 25? Doesn't that seem a bit old to anyone else?

I think MacBeth's age is one reason why he's not more highly regarded. (Well, the control issues too) I guess he could be a pinch runner or extra OF if needed as well. The Crafty LH was talking about his speed and athleticism tonight.

BurgervilleBuck
04-29-2007, 11:51 AM
Deno has a good chance to be the A's starting CFer in 2008.

I hope he has a long healthy and productive career.
Except when he plays the Reds. ;)

BurgervilleBuck
04-29-2007, 11:56 AM
I think MacBeth's age is one reason why he's not more highly regarded.
MacBeth? Does this mean every time he takes the mound we refer to him as "the Scottish pitcher"? ;)

Doro
04-29-2007, 03:07 PM
As far as I'm concerned acquiring Marcus McBride , a decent prospect pick for cult hero Chris Denorfia is already a pretty decent trade.

Some people in my opinion over value Deno's real ability, he's a hustler and good outfielder but at best a journeyman 4th or 5th outfielder on the big league level.

If the 2nd player from the A's has any real chance of making the majors I'd declare this a pretty good trade for the Reds.

some people over value every prospect in baseball. Acording to some we have about 15 big time guys in our minor league system.

Benihana
04-29-2007, 07:34 PM
Just because WK got a warm body back doesn't mean this was a great trade. Freel and Griffey are one ball in the gap away from a long DL stint. Dunn hasn't looked too spectacular lately and Hamilton has been a big surprise but could hit the wall at any time. Time will tell if this trade was truly great either way.

I couldn't disagree more. Denorfia was a spare part to this franchise if there ever was one. Not to mention he's injured. Once Jr. is gone after next year, Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, and Ryan Freel (the fact that he's signed on for another two plus years says it all) can easily man the outfield until Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and the next generation is ready. Getting young pitching back that's ready to contribute at the major league level is more than a solid return for a spare part outfielder that's never done anything at the big league level (and will be, what, 27 before he plays another major league game?) The overrating of Denorfia on this board is obscene. Solid trade IMO.

Sea Ray
04-29-2007, 07:50 PM
The overrating of Denorfia on this board is obscene. Solid trade IMO.


Agreed. "If" we get a back of the bullpen arm for Deno it's a very good trade 'cause pitching rules. If MacBeth turns out to be either a decent closer or a setup man then it is a good trade. Those types of pitchers are much more rare than RH hitting outfielders with little power

Sea Ray
04-29-2007, 07:54 PM
OF easier to find than power pitchers. This is a great risk ...


Bingo, 'nuff said

edabbs44
04-29-2007, 08:37 PM
I couldn't disagree more. Denorfia was a spare part to this franchise if there ever was one. Not to mention he's injured. Once Jr. is gone after next year, Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, and Ryan Freel (the fact that he's signed on for another two plus years says it all) can easily man the outfield until Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and the next generation is ready. Getting young pitching back that's ready to contribute at the major league level is more than a solid return for a spare part outfielder that's never done anything at the big league level (and will be, what, 27 before he plays another major league game?) The overrating of Denorfia on this board is obscene. Solid trade IMO.

Hamilton: Overrating can also be used here. The guy has one month above AA in the books and he's already locked in as a starter for the foreseeable future?

Freel: .677 OPS so far this month, going into today. And he usually wears down as he is used more, so it could get ugly.

Stubbs: .755 OPS in low A, whre he is probably one of the oldest players in the league. Look a the players drafted ahead of him in 2006: Hochevar (AA), Reynolds (AA), Longoria (AA), Lincoln (TJ surgery), Morrow (Mariners bullpen), Miller (Tigers bullpen last year, currently in High A), Kershaw (low A).

The only reason why Denorfia was a "spare part" is because management never gave him a chance. He was one of the only players who showed up down the stretch last season and was rewarded with Narron talking about how he might be sent to AAA because he has options and Bubba Crosby did not. It was pathetic and I am glad that he was traded. Maybe he will finally get a chance to play.

savafan
04-29-2007, 08:47 PM
Hamilton: Overrating can also be used here. The guy has one month above AA in the books and he's already locked in as a starter for the foreseeable future?



Man, talk about pessimism. Hamilton has so far shown that he can play, and play well in the majors with very little limitations.

edabbs44
04-29-2007, 08:59 PM
Man, talk about pessimism. Hamilton has so far shown that he can play, and play well in the majors with very little limitations.

More like reality. The guy obviously has talent and I am glad that he is in Cincy. But we shouldn't be locking this guy in for 15 years based on one month. He is a great feel good story and he deserves to be out there every day right now. But has anyone noticed that we was hitting .333 on 4/19 and is currently at .266? That's a 67 point drop. His OBP has gone from .429 to .365 and his SLG has gone from .900 to .609 in that same time span. He obviously was going to crash a little because the pace he was on was ludicrous. But what if this isn't normalization and is reality? Only time will tell.

savafan
04-29-2007, 09:35 PM
More like reality. The guy obviously has talent and I am glad that he is in Cincy. But we shouldn't be locking this guy in for 15 years based on one month. He is a great feel good story and he deserves to be out there every day right now. But has anyone noticed that we was hitting .333 on 4/19 and is currently at .266? That's a 67 point drop. His OBP has gone from .429 to .365 and his SLG has gone from .900 to .609 in that same time span. He obviously was going to crash a little because the pace he was on was ludicrous. But what if this isn't normalization and is reality? Only time will tell.

He's still getting timely hits, getting on base, and displaying inhuman defensive prowess in centerfield. C'mon now...

edabbs44
04-29-2007, 09:39 PM
He's still getting timely hits, getting on base, and displaying inhuman defensive prowess in centerfield. C'mon now...

The timeframe noted is his last 41 PAs. He has a .292 OBP and 2 RBI in that time frame. Timely hits? Getting on base? Defensive prowess never really goes into a slump like hitting, so no problems there.

I'm not denying this guys future and I hope he stays with Cincy for a long time. But things change fast when a league gets a read on you and you start facing pitchers a second time.

jojo
04-29-2007, 09:55 PM
Hamilton: Overrating can also be used here. The guy has one month above AA in the books and he's already locked in as a starter for the foreseeable future?

Freel: .677 OPS so far this month, going into today. And he usually wears down as he is used more, so it could get ugly.

Stubbs: .755 OPS in low A, whre he is probably one of the oldest players in the league. Look a the players drafted ahead of him in 2006: Hochevar (AA), Reynolds (AA), Longoria (AA), Lincoln (TJ surgery), Morrow (Mariners bullpen), Miller (Tigers bullpen last year, currently in High A), Kershaw (low A).

The only reason why Denorfia was a "spare part" is because management never gave him a chance. He was one of the only players who showed up down the stretch last season and was rewarded with Narron talking about how he might be sent to AAA because he has options and Bubba Crosby did not. It was pathetic and I am glad that he was traded. Maybe he will finally get a chance to play.


A couple of points:
1. I think Denorfia was marginalized by the Reds because he pretty much projects to be a 4th outfielder. He's a confluence of useful skills (mostly undervalued ones IMHO) but he's not really a prospect in the traditional sense (i.e. a Jay Bruce or Adam Jones for example). I've argued before that he could've been a 3-win player this season. Billy Beane gets it but alot of other teams dont. I think Krivsky probably gets it-he didn't trade Deno earlier though Beane offered a guy Krivsky clearly coveted and without the injury, Deno would've been on the active roster. But Krivski's stuck with Dunn and Griffey. So it came down to Deno, Freel and Hamilton. Deno lost out to Freel's versatility (he can play infield too) coupled with his reasonable approximation of Deno in the outfield. Deno also lost out to the upside in Hamilton's bat and the reality that Hamilton's defense is likely better. Hamilton's April and Freel's extension makes Deno's '08 more expendible and Krivsky has a *make moves for the now mentality* as a GM so it was probably pretty much of a nobrainer. He traded an '07 that was lost and an '08 that was less valuable to the Reds for one that's potentially useful and maybe even a big help in '08. My guess is that given how March and April went, this was one of Krivsky's easier decisions since being a Red.

2. Concerning Germano, I tend to agree with you. He's a useful arm that projects to be a decent backend guy (think league average as his ceiling) if he reaches his potential. Right now he's in AAA because Philly actually has a log jam in the rotation in the majors. There are several teams in the majors where he'd get a significant number of starts this season. Trading Germano for Cormier and then extending Cormier pretty much represents Krivsky getting hosed by Gillick. In some ways Germano a little like Deno.

Sea Ray
04-30-2007, 12:06 AM
The timeframe noted is his last 41 PAs. He has a .292 OBP and 2 RBI in that time frame. Timely hits? Getting on base? Defensive prowess never really goes into a slump like hitting, so no problems there.



Of course Hamilton will have his growing pains but the discussion is between Denorfia and Hamilton. Denorfia never had a tear like Josh had to start the season. I would argue that Josh projects to a higher ceiling than Denorfia. In fact I would project Denorfia to have a ceiling of Brady Clark. Was there this much unrest when Brady Clark was traded?

Patrick Bateman
04-30-2007, 01:09 AM
2. Concerning Germano, I tend to agree with you. He's a useful arm that projects to be a decent backend guy (think league average as his ceiling) if he reaches his potential. Right now he's in AAA because Philly actually has a log jam in the rotation in the majors. There are several teams in the majors where he'd get a significant number of starts this season. Trading Germano for Cormier and then extending Cormier pretty much represents Krivsky getting hosed by Gillick. In some ways Germano a little like Deno.

Germano is now with the Padres via waivers, and then he was sent outright to AAA.

Obviously few teams see the potential in him that you do. Not to say he doesn't have it, but no team thought he was worth a rotation spot as of the beginning of the season.

REDREAD
04-30-2007, 10:40 AM
Good trade by Wayne.

I know Beane was drooling over Deno's high minor league OBP, but I think Deno is a vary marginal guy at best.. No power whatsoever. Sure, he has a nice glove, but to get a decent relief prospect (MacBeth) for a defensive OF with an arm injury is a good move. Plus, we have another guy coming over.

I doubt Deno would get this much in a trade, even next year when healthy.

Even if MacBeth doesn't pan out, I like this move by Wayne. We desparately need younger bullpen arms with upside. These are the kind of relievers that Wayne should be stockpiling.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
04-30-2007, 12:00 PM
Probably pretty good. Do we really want him? Sounds like he still may have an arm problem. We already have Majewski to fill that role.

Seriously, Halsey would be another guy to add to the glut that could be run out there if the hopefuls ahead of him prove to be poor. There is value in that. I'd like WK to acquire guys better than the glut or move to a different need like minor league catcher with promise.
Maybe a Kurt Suzuki or a Jeremy Brown?

Benihana
04-30-2007, 12:05 PM
More like reality. The guy obviously has talent and I am glad that he is in Cincy. But we shouldn't be locking this guy in for 15 years based on one month. He is a great feel good story and he deserves to be out there every day right now. But has anyone noticed that we was hitting .333 on 4/19 and is currently at .266? That's a 67 point drop. His OBP has gone from .429 to .365 and his SLG has gone from .900 to .609 in that same time span. He obviously was going to crash a little because the pace he was on was ludicrous. But what if this isn't normalization and is reality? Only time will tell.

Are you honestly saying you like Chris Denorfia better than Josh Hamilton now and for the future? If so, I'm absolutely speechless...

Doc. Scott
04-30-2007, 12:07 PM
Maybe a Kurt Suzuki or a Jeremy Brown?

Suzuki still has quite a prospect reputation, while Brown is just not the sort of player Krivsky is likely to be interested in (a beer league softball-looking sort who doesn't have great tools but draws a lot of walks).

Landon Powell is a lot more likely than either, but I think the second player will probably be someone from the 2006 draft. It makes sense, given the timetable and the fact that you can't trade a player until a year after their signing.

gonelong
04-30-2007, 01:22 PM
Good trade by Wayne.

I know Beane was drooling over Deno's high minor league OBP ...

Moneyball was based on the 2002 A's season and the A's were already deeply involved into generating their own defensive measures at that point.

The theme of the book wasn't OBP, it was taking advantage of inefficient pricing. I'd offer that the A's feel they have found someone that is undervalued for their defense. I'd bet that Beane wac drooling over Deno's defense while being satisfied that his OBP wouldn't make him a black-hole on the offensive side.

GL

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 01:39 PM
Are you honestly saying you like Chris Denorfia better than Josh Hamilton now and for the future? If so, I'm absolutely speechless...

No...I am saying that WK shouldn't be treating Hamilton like he just acquired Beltran. Hamilton has zero track record and is a recovering crack addict. His performance so far is the exact opposite of stable. Dumping spare parts because of Hamilton's presence is not exactly smart, IMO, just yet. He had 2 great weeks and is in the middle of 2 bad weeks. We all want him to succeed but we also have to be objective. Hamilton is 7 for his last 36. In that span he has 1 HR and 2 RBI. If/when he snaps out of his funk will mean a lot. But the league may be learning how to pitch to him. Now it's up to him to make his own adjustments.

I am one of the biggest Deno fans on here and I thought he should have been moved in the spring since it didn't seem like he was in Cincy's plans yet again. But the part that kills me is the obsession on the bullpen. Maybe Wayne needs to take a step back and look at what he has done to this team in his efforts to remodel the pen. Look at how much money he has pissed away. Look at the players he has gotten rid of. It's ludicrous and it's not close to being over. The bullpen still sucks.

Patrick Bateman
04-30-2007, 01:48 PM
I am one of the biggest Deno fans on here and I thought he should have been moved in the spring since it didn't seem like he was in Cincy's plans yet again. But the part that kills me is the obsession on the bullpen. Maybe Wayne needs to take a step back and look at what he has done to this team in his efforts to remodel the pen. Look at how much money he has pissed away. Look at the players he has gotten rid of. It's ludicrous and it's not close to being over. The bullpen still sucks.

I don't get it.

You are mad because the bullpen still sucks, but at the same time you piss on Krivsky every time he makes a bullpen move and you call it an 'obsession'. You obviously want the bullpen to be better, so why are you making fun of Krivsky when he does pick up a pitcher that might actually improve the situation?

I think Krivsky realises that he has basically failed in his attempts to reconstruct the bullpen and is still trying to find ways to fix it. What's wrong with that? At least he has figured out the team's largest problem. He has failed miserably so far, which is why further moves are neccessary.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2007, 01:55 PM
Moneyball was based on the 2002 A's season and the A's were already deeply involved into generating their own defensive measures at that point.

The theme of the book wasn't OBP, it was taking advantage of inefficient pricing. I'd offer that the A's feel they have found someone that is undervalued for their defense. I'd bet that Beane wac drooling over Deno's defense while being satisfied that his OBP wouldn't make him a black-hole on the offensive side.

GL


I think Deno is every bit the fielder that Mark Kotsay is, and has a decent chance to put up better offensive numbers for the rest of his career.

Deno's not a worldbeater, but he'll start for the A's, a pretty good ballclub.

This trade is a gamble for the Reds (maybe a necessary one), but it's not a gamble for the A's.

REDREAD
04-30-2007, 01:57 PM
Moneyball was based on the 2002 A's season and the A's were already deeply involved into generating their own defensive measures at that point.

The theme of the book wasn't OBP, it was taking advantage of inefficient pricing. I'd offer that the A's feel they have found someone that is undervalued for their defense. I'd bet that Beane wac drooling over Deno's defense while being satisfied that his OBP wouldn't make him a black-hole on the offensive side.

GL

That's a good point. Maybe Deno's defense was more attractive to him.

In any event, I question whether Deno will be able to be hit/OBP above "black hole" level. I wish the kid the best, but he seems to be one of those guys that can hit well in AAA but not the majors.

I like this trade from the Reds' point of view, even if Deno ends up doing well in Oakland. It's possible for both teams to win this trade.

pedro
04-30-2007, 02:00 PM
Denorfia's game will play well in that park. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him as the A's starting CF next year.

REDREAD
04-30-2007, 02:00 PM
But the part that kills me is the obsession on the bullpen. Maybe Wayne needs to take a step back and look at what he has done to this team in his efforts to remodel the pen. Look at how much money he has pissed away. Look at the players he has gotten rid of. It's ludicrous and it's not close to being over. The bullpen still sucks.

I agree Wayne has wasted a lot of resources on trying to fix the pen. The evidence for that is overwhelming.

At the same time, I think a guy like MacBeth is the type he should be targeting (as opposed to Stanton). Get some young guys that will give you multiple productive years if they pan out. MacBeth might end up washing out, but it's a good risk, IMO. There's a possiblity Deno might wash out as well.

I'm definitely not Wayne's biggest fan, but I like this move. I like it even if Deno starts CF for the A's next year and plays decently.

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 02:09 PM
I don't get it.

You are mad because the bullpen still sucks, but at the same time you piss on Krivsky every time he makes a bullpen move and you call it an 'obsession'. You obviously want the bullpen to be better, so why are you making fun of Krivsky when he does pick up a pitcher that might actually improve the situation?

I think Krivsky realises that he has basically failed in his attempts to reconstruct the bullpen and is still trying to find ways to fix it. What's wrong with that? At least he has figured out the team's largest problem. He has failed miserably so far, which is why further moves are neccessary.

It's been a year that he's been reconstructing the bullpen. I'm sick of waiting for him to figure it out. Instead of acquiring a multitude of middle of the road guys, how about signing one or two good relievers. The Braves dealt Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano. How they pulled that off is beyond me. From what I was told, the mkt for relievers ws worse than NYC housing prices. The only problem was that WK was the only one paying those prices. Atlanta got Soriano, Gonzalez and Wickman in the past year for basically LaRoche. The Reds have gotten 15 marginal relievers for more.

You are right..he has figured out the team's biggest problem. But it doesn't take a brain surgeon to do that. Discovering that the Reds biggest need was the bullpen was like Wayne finding the ballpark on his first day of work. The hard part is fixing the problem, and he has almost proven that he lacks the capacity to fix it.

Ltlabner
04-30-2007, 02:12 PM
No...I am saying that WK shouldn't be treating Hamilton like he just acquired Beltran. Hamilton has zero track record and is a recovering crack addict.

Denos ML PA's = 164
Hamiltons AB's = 64 (can't seem to find PA's)

As much as I like Deno let's quit acting like he's got 5 year of ML experience and a solid resume of performance. He's miniscule number of PA's isn't that far ahead of Josh's and with the playing time Hamilton is getting he'll soon have a longer track record by which to judge him. You are right that Hamilton has yet to prove himself, but neither has Deno for that matter.

Deno, while tallented, hasn't proven anything other than he hits well in AAA and has long hair.

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 02:20 PM
Denos ML PA's = 164
Hamiltons AB's = 64 (can't seem to find PA's)

As much as I like Deno let's quit acting like he's got 5 year of ML experience and a solid resume of performance. He's miniscule number of PA's isn't that far ahead of Josh's and with the playing time Hamilton is getting he'll soon have a longer track record by which to judge him. You are right that Hamilton has yet to prove himself, but neither has Deno for that matter.

Deno, while tallented, hasn't proven anything other than he hits well in AAA and has long hair.

Deno has proven himself above AA. Hamilton hasn't proved himself above even A.

I'm not comparing the two and I'm not saying that Hamilton should have been traded because of Deno. All I am saying is that Wayne is dismantling the team in his everlasting efforts to upgrade the bullpen. And trading Deno because of the "emergence" of Hamilton is very short-sighted. Everyone can stop being so defensive when it comes to Hamilton. My God.

oneupper
04-30-2007, 02:23 PM
Sending Deno off puts Freel in CF for the next two years, without a viable replacement. I'm NOT OK with that. WK is banking on Stubbs taking over in 2009/10. That's a big bet.

The bullpen is ALWAYS going to be bad as long as Narron is managing it and WK is picking up Hammonds and Stantons.

WK wouldn't be able to trade a MacBeth-type (Coffey, Salmon?) for a ML-ready CF. So why would he do it himself?

No..you don't build your team around Deno-types...but you need them. Heck, Dave Martinez played in the bigs for 16 years with a similar skill set, with no shortage of teams vying for his services (which I always thought was incredible at the time).

CaiGuy
04-30-2007, 02:25 PM
Denos ML PA's = 164
Hamiltons AB's = 64 (can't seem to find PA's)

As much as I like Deno let's quit acting like he's got 5 year of ML experience and a solid resume of performance. He's miniscule number of PA's isn't that far ahead of Josh's and with the playing time Hamilton is getting he'll soon have a longer track record by which to judge him. You are right that Hamilton has yet to prove himself, but neither has Deno for that matter.

Deno, while tallented, hasn't proven anything other than he hits well in AAA and has long hair.
Deno minor league AB's-2000
Hamilton's-1060 (all but a few below AA)

Deno has nowhere near the ceiling or potential of Hamilton, but he has had a much more extensive (and better) career to this point.

Also, I like edabbs44's arguement. While he has a lot of potental, he is far from a lock to be a good starter for the rest of the season, let alone the decade. There have been a lot of prospects with great skills, and Hamilton is one of the best. But there are so many that don't pan out.

Ltlabner
04-30-2007, 02:26 PM
Deno has proven himself above AA. Hamilton hasn't proved himself above even A.

I'm not comparing the two and I'm not saying that Hamilton should have been traded because of Deno. All I am saying is that Wayne is dismantling the team in his everlasting efforts to upgrade the bullpen. And trading Deno because of the "emergence" of Hamilton is very short-sighted. Everyone can stop being so defensive when it comes to Hamilton. My God.

How in the world does the trading of a 4th outfielder qualify as "dismantling" the team? That's a strech and a half.

Hamilton may implode next month. Guess what? Deno still couldn't help the team out because of his TJ surgery.

I'd say bringing in an interesting, young, upside potential arm, along with another PTBNL and cash in return for a 4th outfielder with zero MLB track record, and who has a bum arm is a step beyond "short-sighted".

PuffyPig
04-30-2007, 02:27 PM
I think Deno is every bit the fielder that Mark Kotsay is, and has a decent chance to put up better offensive numbers for the rest of his career.

Deno's not a worldbeater, but he'll start for the A's, a pretty good ballclub.

This trade is a gamble for the Reds (maybe a necessary one), but it's not a gamble for the A's.

I don't now.

The Reds trade a player that likely won't start for them for a player who may play a more significant role (even closer).

The A's trade a player who likely wouldn't play a significant role for them (they have a closer) for a player who might likley start for them next season.

It's seems to me that both teams are trading from a surplus to fill a bigger need. That's what trades are supposed to do.

PuffyPig
04-30-2007, 02:32 PM
Sending Deno off puts Freel in CF for the next two years, without a viable replacement. I'm NOT OK with that. WK is banking on Stubbs taking over in 2009/10. That's a big bet.

The bullpen is ALWAYS going to be bad as long as Narron is managing it and WK is picking up Hammonds and Stantons.

WK wouldn't be able to trade a MacBeth-type (Coffey, Salmon?) for a ML-ready CF. So why would he do it himself?



I think that Hamilton is a viable replacement for Freel. I know that Hamilton isn't established, but neither was Deno. I do know that Hamilton has way more trade value than Deno.

And yes, you could easily have traded Coffey for a Deno type.

Falls City Beer
04-30-2007, 02:39 PM
I don't now.

The Reds trade a player that likely won't start for them for a player who may play a more significant role (even closer).

The A's trade a player who likely wouldn't play a significant role for them (they have a closer) for a player who might likley start for them next season.

It's seems to me that both teams are trading from a surplus to fill a bigger need. That's what trades are supposed to do.

I'm aware there's a measure of context involved. But talent's talent. And certainty is certainty. I'm not saying it's a bad trade necessarily, just that the risk lies with the Reds.

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 02:51 PM
How in the world does the trading of a 4th outfielder qualify as "dismantling" the team? That's a strech and a half.

Hamilton may implode next month. Guess what? Deno still couldn't help the team out because of his TJ surgery.

I'd say bringing in an interesting, young, upside potential arm, along with another PTBNL and cash in return for a 4th outfielder with zero MLB track record, and who has a bum arm is a step beyond "short-sighted".

Add Deno to Lopez and Kearns and the money dropped on Cormier, Weathers and Stanton and maybe you can see my point. WK's track record on acquiring bullpen arms isn't the best.

westofyou
04-30-2007, 02:52 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6166


The decision to deal Denorfia might seem strange, because he's out for the year after elbow surgery, but they're committed to Josh Hamilton for the time being, and by the time Denorfia would be useful to them, Drew Stubbs might be ready for Double-A. So Krivsky instead decided to ditch someone no longer really in his ballclub's outfield picture for another reliever, and while that might seem like more of the same, McBeth's as interesting as a minor league reliever can get, bordering on meriting a 'prospect' label you don't often tag their kind with. A former centerfielder with mid-90s heat, he might have been able to punch his own ticket at some point with velocity alone. However, a nasty changeup and a promising slider give him an unusually broad assortment for a conversion project, and there's a decent chance he'll be able to stick in The Show before this season's out. Add in the cash and the possibility of some other goody, and it already looks like a pretty solid move.


Getting Denorfia isn't going to do the A's any good this year—his recovery from elbow surgery will keep him on the shelf until it's time to start playing the Arizona Fall League and winter league seasons. However, he is a guy Billy Beane's had some interest in for a while, and if you look at him as someone who won't even be eligible for arbitration until the 2010 season, and who might give you .290/.360/.450 in 2008-09, that's a solid bit of arbitrage. For the very promising maybe of McBeth, that seems like a reasonable risk to take, and while I'd rather have McBeth than someone like Jay Witasick, I could say the same thing about Santiago Casilla. Or Keith Atherton, but then it just seems like Witasick's instant ugliness in cleats—just add tears and stir. While I'm not wild about dealing McBeth, the slim track record and the player type (minor league relief prospect—is there such a thing?) dealt make sense in the abstract. When you come right down to it, the club needed the spot on the 40-man roster—somebody was going to have to come off once they reactivate Mark Kotsay from the 60-day DL, but swapping McBeth for Denorfia gets rid of that potential problem.

Newman4
04-30-2007, 02:56 PM
My .02:

Hamilton > Deno, thus Deno is expendable. Street > MacBeth. MacBeth is expendable.

MacBeth fills a need as previously mentioned, so does Deno. Obvious logic from both sides.

Man love for Deno > Reality :D

Ltlabner
04-30-2007, 02:56 PM
Add Deno to Lopez and Kearns and the money dropped on Cormier, Weathers and Stanton and maybe you can see my point. WK's track record on acquiring bullpen arms isn't the best.

Yep, he's made some blunders before. He better never make another BP move ever again.

Then when people start carping because the bullpens broken he can meekly hold out his hands and tell folks, "I'd love to make a move for BP help, but I made a mistake in 2006 so I better not make any more moves".

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 03:28 PM
Yep, he's made some blunders before. He better never make another BP move ever again.

Then when people start carping because the bullpens broken he can meekly hold out his hands and tell folks, "I'd love to make a move for BP help, but I made a mistake in 2006 so I better not make any more moves".

A mistake? I'd rather say multiple mistakes. And by the time he fixes this bullpen, if ever, the lineup will be averaging 2 runs per game. Let him trade for DFAed guys and Rule 5 guys. Let someone else acquire relievers. He hasn't shown the best eye in that arena.

Patrick Bateman
04-30-2007, 04:30 PM
You are right..he has figured out the team's biggest problem. But it doesn't take a brain surgeon to do that. Discovering that the Reds biggest need was the bullpen was like Wayne finding the ballpark on his first day of work. The hard part is fixing the problem, and he has almost proven that he lacks the capacity to fix it.

So what's not to like about McBeth?

He's a potential power arm that could step in fairly shortly. Is he not the type of guys that a GM should be going after?

I agree, he has failed so far with relievers. This is mainly because he targeted the wrong players. The crux of the problem has been trading assets and spending money on guys like Majewski, Cormier, Weathers, etc.

But in this move, Krivsky targeted the right player which is opposite from the other transactions. I liked Denorfia too, but the bullpen has still not been fixed, and without another overhaul it wont be fixed.

You can continue bashing Krivsky for his past failures, but this move has nothing to do with that. The bullpen still needs work, and Krivsky will continue making moves until the weakness is fixed, and quite frankly I'm not sure why you find that to be a problem. I can see you finding faults in his previous moves, but I see no fault in the continued effort to improve the bullpen.

flyer85
04-30-2007, 04:42 PM
My .02:

Hamilton > Deno, thus Deno is expendable.that all depends on Hamilton not having a slipup(which doesn't have to involve illegal drugs). He is a minor infraction away from a minimum year long suspension. Which makes counting on him long term a high risk proposition. To mitigate that you better have a plan that doesn't include him.

At least WK did get the right kind of player in return(exactly what he didn't get last July), which is a power arm and potential bat misser with a nasty off speed pitch.

Ltlabner
04-30-2007, 04:43 PM
He is a minor infraction away from a minimum year long suspension.

And Deno is definatley out till next season. One is playing, one can't.

flyer85
04-30-2007, 04:47 PM
And Deno is definatley out till next season. One is playing, one can't.One can be counted on to not be suspended a year from now and one can't. It's apples and oranges.

All I am saying is if you include Hamilton in your future plans you better have a plan B.

Sea Ray
04-30-2007, 06:14 PM
All I am saying is if you include Hamilton in your future plans you better have a plan B.

I don't know about that. Maybe I value pitching more than the next guy. Maybe it's because of all the losing I've seen this team do since the turn of the century as I've seen runs scored by the bunches.

I'd rather have a hole in my OF than a hole in the bullpen.

Sea Ray
04-30-2007, 06:18 PM
We saw Bowden trade pitching like a #1 closer (Shaw) and a #1 starter (Burba) for first basemen. Maybe the OF depth isn't what we'd like it to be but WK has to trade something to try to upgrade this bullpen mess. I don't see that he has much else to dangle in a deal.

I do understand the doubting of the guy's talent evaluation skills after the debacle last summer.

edabbs44
04-30-2007, 11:04 PM
So what's not to like about McBeth?

He's a potential power arm that could step in fairly shortly. Is he not the type of guys that a GM should be going after?

I agree, he has failed so far with relievers. This is mainly because he targeted the wrong players. The crux of the problem has been trading assets and spending money on guys like Majewski, Cormier, Weathers, etc.

But in this move, Krivsky targeted the right player which is opposite from the other transactions. I liked Denorfia too, but the bullpen has still not been fixed, and without another overhaul it wont be fixed.

You can continue bashing Krivsky for his past failures, but this move has nothing to do with that. The bullpen still needs work, and Krivsky will continue making moves until the weakness is fixed, and quite frankly I'm not sure why you find that to be a problem. I can see you finding faults in his previous moves, but I see no fault in the continued effort to improve the bullpen.

Wayne targeted the right kind of guy, but he's also a 26 year old AAA pitcher. It's not like he traded for Scot Shields or someone like that. So far in his 1+ year of GMing, I have seen Wayne somewhat upgrade the rotation and decimate the lineup. The bullpen has gotten a little better, but not much.

So here's my issue, I guess. He has already proven that he doesn't have the Midas touch when it comes to relievers. So stop trying. Tell Bob that you need to spend Milton's money next off-season on legitimate relievers. None of the 40 year old, 2 years from retirement garbage. Get real arms. McBeth seems like he has potential. Fine. But if I had to take a risk, I'd rather take a shot on minor league starters over minor league relievers anyday. The payoff is so much greater. Watching WK spend millions and Deno, Kearns and Lopez for zero upgrade in the pen has been painful. Move on from the pen. This team isn't Mariano away from the post-season in 2007. I can just see another summer filled with Esteban Yan and Rheal Cormier like trades and signings.

kxblue
05-01-2007, 12:48 AM
edabbs, I realize Deno was one of your favorite players, but it is impossible to lump Lopez and Kearns with Deno.

Obviously that trade didn't work out too well, but personally Id rather have Gonzo at short than Lopez, and well Kearns isnt exactly burning DC to the ground.

backbencher
05-01-2007, 03:24 PM
Wayne targeted the right kind of guy, but he's also a 26 year old AAA pitcher. It's not like he traded for Scot Shields or someone like that.

Scot Shields was a 26-year-old AAA pitcher. 27-year-old AAA pitcher too, for that matter. Some relievers develop late.

Dracodave
05-01-2007, 03:53 PM
Wayne targeted the right kind of guy, but he's also a 26 year old AAA pitcher. It's not like he traded for Scot Shields or someone like that. So far in his 1+ year of GMing, I have seen Wayne somewhat upgrade the rotation and decimate the lineup. The bullpen has gotten a little better, but not much.

Said pitcher (McBeth) CONVERTED from a outfielder though.

bounty37h
05-01-2007, 03:55 PM
Hamilton: Overrating can also be used here. The guy has one month above AA in the books and he's already locked in as a starter for the foreseeable future?

Freel: .677 OPS so far this month, going into today. And he usually wears down as he is used more, so it could get ugly.

Stubbs: .755 OPS in low A, whre he is probably one of the oldest players in the league. Look a the players drafted ahead of him in 2006: Hochevar (AA), Reynolds (AA), Longoria (AA), Lincoln (TJ surgery), Morrow (Mariners bullpen), Miller (Tigers bullpen last year, currently in High A), Kershaw (low A).

The only reason why Denorfia was a "spare part" is because management never gave him a chance. He was one of the only players who showed up down the stretch last season and was rewarded with Narron talking about how he might be sent to AAA because he has options and Bubba Crosby did not. It was pathetic and I am glad that he was traded. Maybe he will finally get a chance to play.


Well, the only times I got to see Deno play in person was with Louisville, 5 games last year, and the only thing I thought after each time was "I hope we arent counting on this guy for anything big". Not that you can form a long term opinion after only 5 games, but I just didn't see anythign that impressed me to the level he has been held to

westofyou
05-19-2007, 12:07 PM
Interesting twist on the trade (IMO) Houston Street went down (perhaps for awhile) and the A's are all of the sudden strapped for an arm in the BP.

Injuries and longterm plans don't always mix well, the trade for Denorfia wasn't supposed to effect the A's this year, mainly because they didn't have any need for McBeth. At this point they could use him for their pen or as bait for something on the market they could use this season, not next. This lapse though is an example of what happens all over the game when guys crap out or get hurt, sometimes the dividing line between good luck and bad luck is razor thin.

This was on BP in the TA article

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6248#OAK


Which brings me to the last, toughest nut: what to do in Street's absence. There, I'm at a loss. I don't know what brand of Kool-Aid Jay Witasick is, but I haven't wanted any for a couple of years now. In Justin Duchscherer's absence, the rest of the pen looks like a bunch of specialists or aspiring specialists, and while those can be assets when you can mix them and match them, when you're short the closer, the primary set-up man, and anybody who can reliably handle a multi-inning outing, “specialist” becomes a bit of a dirty word. Even getting the Duke back probably leaves them stuck, since if he's sequestered in the closer's role, you've still got to find people who can help you protect the leads he's supposed to close out. As much as the Angels make it seem easy to conjure up a guy with a funky delivery and briefly turn him into a relief star (a la Ben Weber or Brendan Donnelly), I don't see Robertson turning out nearly as well. Despite the flamethrowing you might infer from his 19 Ks and 10 walks in 18.2 Sacramento innings, his stuff's relatively modest, and has nothing like the nasty break that out-of-nowhere guys like Weber and Donnelly had. So, while he can make it hard to pick up the ball, I worry he won't be able to fool enough of the people enough of the time.

sonny
05-19-2007, 12:53 PM
Interesting twist on the trade (IMO) Houston Street went down (perhaps for awhile) and the A's are all of the sudden strapped for an arm in the BP.

Injuries and longterm plans don't always mix well, the trade for Denorfia wasn't supposed to effect the A's this year, mainly because they didn't have any need for McBeth. At this point they could use him for their pen or as bait for something on the market they could use this season, not next. This lapse though is an example of what happens all over the game when guys crap out or get hurt, sometimes the dividing line between good luck and bad luck is razor thin.

This was on BP in the TA article

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6248#OAK

David St Hubbins:
"There's such a fine line between stupid and clever"

although not directly pertaining to this situation, but Bean need to work some of that cleverness he talks about so much.

Falls City Beer
05-19-2007, 12:57 PM
David St Hubbins:
"There's such a fine line between stupid and clever"

although not directly pertaining to this situation, but Bean need to work some of that cleverness he talks about so much.

Taking Beane to task about this is like pointing out that the king forgot to polish one of the gems in his crown.

redsupport
05-19-2007, 01:02 PM
Quite ironic that a fan of the most dysfunctional organization, an abject joke, is taking the A;s gm to task. How about the thousands of pages of satire that could be written about the likes of castro, stanton, coffey, et al.

RBA
05-19-2007, 01:03 PM
Taking Beane to task about this is like pointing out that the king forgot to polish one of the gems in his crown.


But he doesn't have a World Series Crown to polish. He's a king without a kingdom.

RichRed
05-19-2007, 01:11 PM
But he doesn't have a World Series Crown to polish. He's a king without a kingdom.

A 1st or 2nd place division finish with at least 87 wins every year since 1999, including 5 playoff appearances.

The Reds aren't even fit to be the court jester in this comparison.

RBA
05-19-2007, 01:18 PM
A 1st or 2nd place division finish with at least 87 wins every year since 1999, including 5 playoff appearances.

The Reds aren't even fit to be the court jester in this comparison.

That's all good and well, "but it don't mean a thing if you ain't got that ring."

alexad
05-19-2007, 01:30 PM
Hamilton is playing, April Rookie of the Month, Deno hurt not playing....enough said......
Well Hamilton has produced better numbers in two months than what Deno produced while he wore a Reds Uniform.

westofyou
05-19-2007, 01:32 PM
Quite ironic that a fan of the most dysfunctional organization, an abject joke, is taking the A;s gm to task. How about the thousands of pages of satire that could be written about the likes of castro, stanton, coffey, et al.

Task?

Hardly, that's a tune whistled by others, I'm just pointing out the thin line between black and white.

Maybe I should have just started an inane thread to state my opinion, rather then adding to this one.

sonny
05-19-2007, 02:12 PM
Quite ironic that a fan of the most dysfunctional organization, an abject joke, is taking the A;s gm to taskl.

I'm not a Devil Rays fan:)

Handofdeath
05-19-2007, 02:23 PM
So far in his 1+ year of GMing, I have seen Wayne somewhat upgrade the rotation and decimate the lineup.

You know what? If WK decimated the lineup, he was decimating the lineup of a team that had averaged exactly 90 losses over the previous 5 seasons. The Reds were a terrible franchise when WK got there and in their 1st season the Reds lost 82 games( an 8 game improvement) and spent a decent part of last season in 1st place. He improved the team and made them competitive. He then went out and hired the protege of the best hitting coach in the Majors and the man Greg Maddux credits with helping him become a Hall of Fame pitcher. Solid moves in both cases.

People continually harp on WK's acquiring Cormier and Stanton to pitch. Conveniently forgotten is that last season Stanton's ERA was sub 4.00 and Cormier's was 2.44. He got veteran and effective arms with playoff experience for a young and immature team. Nothing wrong with that. So, this season Cormier and Stanton are pitching lousy. WK's fault? No. Coffey is pitching lousy and so is Livingston. The age of the pitcher has nothing to do with the effectiveness. They simply are not as good this season as last season. If the Reds didn't want Cormier or Stanton, several teams were going to be interested in signing them at the same salary. WK didn't do anything that other GM's weren't going to do. So, WK has to try and improve the bullpen again. Older players are cheaper players. You want young good relievers or any type of player? Guess what the price is? That's right, good players and/or money the Reds don't possess. Until this franchise gets built back up with more abundant talent, it's one or the other. Reds fans need to understand that. The farm system already is looking much better and the team is slowly but surely being rebuilt. Defense up the middle is looking good and the starting staff is looking much better. These things take time and fans need to understand the way to rebuild this franchise for the long haul is not to try to do it in one season. The payoff will be worth the wait.

mth123
05-19-2007, 03:21 PM
People continually harp on WK's acquiring Cormier and Stanton to pitch. Conveniently forgotten is that last season Stanton's ERA was sub 4.00 and Cormier's was 2.44. He got veteran and effective arms with playoff experience for a young and immature team. Nothing wrong with that.

Many are fooled by the ERAs of certain pitchers but one can see through this by looking at the peripherals. In Cormier's case it was pretty easy to see his Philly BABIP of .238 coupled with his low (below 4) K/9. This means that when the BABIP goes back to the normal range of .280 to .310, it will have an even bigger effect because of the unusually high numbers of balls in play (because of the lack of K's). Stanton looked a little better, but garnered his stats pitching in Washington and SF - two of the best places to pitch in the NL and the component that showed the best was his extrememly low HR allowed (just maybe the parks had something to do with it). Finally, both of these guys are 40 and no matter how good their careers may have been (Cormier's is very iffy BTW), they simply were a huge risk to fall of a cliff in 2007. Mike Stanton was an impact set-up man in his prime with some championship teams in Atlanta and with the Yankees, but, at 40, he simply isn't that guy anymore. Expecting him to be the impact set-up guy now that he was back then is like expecting Willie Mays to be the answer for RH Power in CF because the back of his baseball card said he had a good career.

These two guys represented about 7% of the payroll, were largely redundant with younger cheaper options already on hand, possessed easy to analyze warning signs concerning their 2006 stats, and represented a huge risk of drop-off due to age. No one expects the average fan or even the fairly knowledgeable fan to be able to see this, but a major league GM should be able to. Add in the fact that what this team needed going into the offseason was an impact reliever and not middling stopgaps, and it was a curious decision to spread the money around when it should have been pooled on an impact guy.

redsupport
05-19-2007, 04:12 PM
and to boot cormier did not have that ERA for the Reds. Once he arrived here he was detritus

Handofdeath
05-19-2007, 04:47 PM
The point is they had good recent track records. If the Reds sign some guy that's just been DFA'd he's going to be even worse. Krivsky's options are limited. Look at Weather's numbers this season and say he was on another team. The Reds want him. What do you think another team is going to ask for? How about EE? Redszone would be in an absolute uproar if that trade happened. The pantry is going to have to be restocked before the Reds can start making the kind of deals Redszoner like.