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coachw513
04-30-2007, 12:46 PM
The good:

1. Starting pitching...wow, simply amazing...even Milton has been okay,keeping us in games...and it's got a chance to continue when you consider Harang hasn't been outstanding yet and even if Milton implodes it looks like Dumatrait is certainly capable of Milty-esque numbers...

2. Hamilton...are you kidding me???...

3. Alex Gonzalez...the defense is outstanding, the bat is ridiculous at present...to continue??...probably not, but he's had a super month...

4. 1B platoon...despite our collective protestations, Hatty and YB have really been outstanding...I don't know how they match up (collectively) to ML 1st base numbers (I'm sure someone does) but they have been very, very good so far...

5. overall plate discipline...yes, we know some guys are in slumps or not having great AB's in certain situations, but by and large we are better at getting on base/getting pitches to hit than in the past...this will lead to good things down the road (those "stat guys" out there can substantiate, I'm sure)

Bad (but getting better):
1. attacking LHP...EE, Phillips and Ross are all coming around...unfortunately they were all in a major slump at the same time, causing us major problems with any LH starter...the last 2 days are a GREAT sign for improvement

2. bullpen...better simply with the addition of Salmon and removal of Cormier...will get better if (yes, an if) Bray and/or Easy Eddie G can truly contribute...the 1st 10 days of season were an aberration, but so was the week of hell from the pen...we really need an effective Todd Coffey..

The Ugly:
1. Lack of consistent play...solid defense followed by an inning of ugly...good AB's followed by swinging at a 2-0 when we shouldn't have...losing concentration and giving up too much of the plate, either as a pitcher or a hitter...blame who we want, this must improve for we don't have the margin of error to compensate for poor execution night in-night out...

2. Griffey's health...I'm simply sad for the man, and amazed at how he is crucified locally while lauded nationally (anyone see the Sports Reporters yesterday??)...yet folks in SF love Bonds despite everything...with every bone in my body do I wish fortune would reverse and Griffey would have the 8 HR and Bonds would be breaking down...but life is simply not fair...don't ever underestimate our lineup misses and needs Griffey during the season (400 AB's worth at least) to make a surprising run at the NL central...

3. The Brewers are getting it done...they ARE the most talented team and the only team with a deeper, more solid rotation than the Reds...can they sustain it???


We frittered away a great month of starting pitching, but we salvaged a month of wretched hitting and situational play and bullpen production...

Arroyo, Lohse, Belisle, Santos, Conine, Gonzalez, Hamilton :thumbup: :thumbup:

BRM
04-30-2007, 01:07 PM
Reds starting pitching has been pretty good the first month. Ranks in the NL so far:

WHIP - 1st, 1.21
K/BB - 1st, 3.75
ERA - 3rd, 3.44
OPSA - 3rd, .676
K/9 - 6th, 6.76

The Reds First Basemen are currently 6th in the NL in OPS at .839 after one month of play.

15fan
04-30-2007, 01:42 PM
The good:

1. ...even Milton has been okay,keeping us in games...

YTD Pitching Stats for Cincinnati (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&pagetype=pitching&seasonYear=2007)

In 21 starts, Harang, Arroyo, Belisle and Lohse have combined for 13 quality starts. Bronson has 4, and each of the other 3 guys has 3 apiece.

In 4 starts, Eric Milton has 1 quality start. He's tied with Victor Santos with the fewest Ks / 9 IP on the staff (5.57 for EM, 5.56 for Santos), and the only pitchers with a worse WHIP than Milton's 1.43 are Rheal DFA Cormier's 1.67, Todd Coffey's 1.62, and Jared Burton's 9.00 (in 1/3 IP). He's tied with Harang & Lohse for having given up the most HRs (3), despite the fact that Harang has pitched 38.1 innings and Lohse has pitched 34.1, compared to Milton's 21.0 IP.

The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.

6 quality starts for Belisle and Lohse. That's the key.

StillFunkyB
04-30-2007, 02:04 PM
The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.

I think that is what most people are/were screaming about this spring is that why not throw someone out there that at least has a shot to be better. You know what Eric Milton is going to give you, and they have several lefty starters that can do the same with the possibility of doing much better.

I watched Eric's first start of the year, and honestly the Brewers should have murdered him. He was throwing fat ones and they just weren't really hitting them.

TOBTTReds
04-30-2007, 02:21 PM
The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!

Hubba
04-30-2007, 02:30 PM
Where is FBC:eek:

Hubba
04-30-2007, 02:32 PM
The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!
Who would you replace replace him with that is better?

membengal
04-30-2007, 02:45 PM
Dumatrait.

But no one wants Milton, so there we are.

coachw513
04-30-2007, 02:55 PM
In 4 starts, Eric Milton has 1 quality start. He's tied with Victor Santos with the fewest Ks / 9 IP on the staff (5.57 for EM, 5.56 for Santos), and the only pitchers with a worse WHIP than Milton's 1.43 are Rheal DFA Cormier's 1.67, Todd Coffey's 1.62, and Jared Burton's 9.00 (in 1/3 IP). He's tied with Harang & Lohse for having given up the most HRs (3), despite the fact that Harang has pitched 38.1 innings and Lohse has pitched 34.1, compared to Milton's 21.0 IP.

The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.

Anyone's 5th starter that has averaged giving up only 3 runs per outing would be more than acceptable...

1st start: left trailing 4-0
2nd start: left trailing 2-0
3rd start: left trailing 3-1
last start: left trailing 3-0

2 of the runs he's given up are unearned...

You mention his WHIP...but of the other 21 starters in the NL Central thus far Milton's WHIP is better than 7 starters in the division...so he's more than exceeding the role of the 5th starter in this rotation...(and I'm simply evaluating him on what he is-a 5th starter-not what he might/should be)...in addition, his K/BB ratio would be better than 9 other NL Central starters...

His number one failing is getting off to slow starts, giving up 6 of his 12 runs in the 1st inning...it is NOT an acceptable excuse but he is the 1 member of the rotation not to stay on a regular schedule...

Finally, he's gotten horrible run support...we lament the lack of support for Arroyo (and deservedly so) but the run support for Milton has been just as bad...

IF you believe Livington, Dumatrait, Bailey or someone else is better I can't disagree...but to say that Milton's April performance would necessarily be worse than 1 of these others, I'm not so certain...big difference from missing AAA bats and missing ML bats...

15fan
04-30-2007, 03:00 PM
The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!

Or get Theo on the line for a 3 way. I bet he'd offer to pony up some cash to get Milton into the Yankee rotation. ;)

princeton
04-30-2007, 03:22 PM
he was DanO's foundation. It's why he stays at the bottom.

tell him that you'd rather that he be the roof. See what happens.

15fan
04-30-2007, 03:34 PM
...big difference from missing AAA bats and missing ML bats...

And Milton isn't missing many ML bats. Though not shocking, that continues to be the problem.

Here are some more Milton splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3783) for 2007:

In 5 ABs when he's been ahead in the count 0-1, opponents have a 1.000 OPS against him.

That's a small sample size, so let's look at a couple more pitchers counts.

In 14 ABs with a 1-1 count, opponents are OPS-ing the same 1.000

In 19 ABs with a 1-2 count, opponents are OPS-ing 1.158.

In the 7 ABs he's jumped ahead 0-2, opponents are only OPS-ing .857

As reference points, Adam Dunn's OPS so far this season is .874. Chase Utley and Miguel Reyes are right around 1.000, Miguel Cabrera is #2 in the NL at 1.109, while Barry Bonds is at 1.353.

He's most hittable when the count has him in the driver's seat. At 1-2 in the count, the guy in the batters box turns into Miguel Cabrera. That'd be one thing if Milton had been facing big time lineups.

But 2 of his 4 starts have been against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 14th in the NL in runs scored (83), leading only the Cards (81) and the Nats (78).

TeamSelig
04-30-2007, 03:40 PM
Wow, thats really strange splits.

Sounds like his breaking pitches are hanging over the plate.

Thats if when he has the batter down early in the count he then goes to his breaking balls, i'm not sure as I haven't really watched him this year.

There is also the small sample size thing too, I guess.

coachw513
04-30-2007, 03:52 PM
And Milton isn't missing many ML bats. Though not shocking, that continues to be the problem.

Here are some more Milton splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3783) for 2007:

In 5 ABs when he's been ahead in the count 0-1, opponents have a 1.000 OPS against him.

That's a small sample size, so let's look at a couple more pitchers counts.

In 14 ABs with a 1-1 count, opponents are OPS-ing the same 1.000

In 19 ABs with a 1-2 count, opponents are OPS-ing 1.158.

In the 7 ABs he's jumped ahead 0-2, opponents are only OPS-ing .857

As reference points, Adam Dunn's OPS so far this season is .874. Chase Utley and Miguel Reyes are right around 1.000, Miguel Cabrera is #2 in the NL at 1.109, while Barry Bonds is at 1.353.

He's most hittable when the count has him in the driver's seat. At 1-2 in the count, the guy in the batters box turns into Miguel Cabrera. That'd be one thing if Milton had been facing big time lineups.

But 2 of his 4 starts have been against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 14th in the NL in runs scored (83), leading only the Cards (81) and the Nats (78).

First of all, that's a great post...very good stuff...

I wasn't saying Milton is lighting it up right now...I'm just justifiying my position that regardless of how he's doing it, his bottom line performance for the month of April was acceptable...

I totally accept the premise the wheels may fall off at any time and that we might end up needing to DFA him...but IF he were to pitch like this all year, I'd happily take it...

RedsManRick
04-30-2007, 04:12 PM
A sub 5.00 ERA and 160 IP would make him one of the most effective #5 starters in baseball. Measure him against his salary or prior expectations and sure, he's crap. Anybody who thinks Livingston, et. al. are necessarily better hasn't been paying attention to Joe Mays, Justin Germano, Randy Keisler, etc. over the last few years. Yes, one of the AAA guys not named Bailey MIGHT be better than Milton, but it's certainly no guarantee.

As other's have said, I'm not married to the guy. If he starts getting truly lit up, I'm happy to see somebody else get a shot. But if he can keep doing what he's done to date in terms of ERA, that's more than acceptable.

Kc61
04-30-2007, 04:56 PM
Other candidates now are primarily Dumatrait and Livingston.

Both are doing well at AAA. Livingston has a higher ERA and has given up 36 hits in 30 innings. But he is still below 3.00 and doesn't walk anybody.

Dumatrait has a microscopic ERA, has given up very few hits, but has a lot of walks and a 19/13 strikeout/walk ratio.

My take: if Milton were to go, I would bring up Livingston for the short term and give Dumatrait some more AAA time.

Eric_Davis
05-01-2007, 02:29 AM
After a month......


All Six teams with the best intra-division records lead their respective divisions.

It's so important that you lift the level of your game and step it up when playing intra-division rivals. It's not just one game. You're bringing yourself up and knocking them down.

It's especially important now that we play an unbalanced division-laden schedule (which I happen to prefer above all other choices).

We have three more at Houston before we break away from the division. Let's win this series....the non-Oswalt pitched games.

red-in-la
05-01-2007, 05:58 AM
There is only one Milton stat that concerns me.....and maybe should concern the Reds and their sponsors.

When I know Milton is starting, I don't even turn the game on.

But another stat you might want to look at.....I think the Reds were something like 4-1 at Milton's first start....and something like 7-4 at his next.

He has started them on several losing trends already this season.

What was the reasoning behind releasing Jimmy Haynes and his 2 million dollar salary? As I recall, Narron said something like, "not going to have many winning streaks with him in your rotation."

I think the same is true for Milton and he should be released.....forget the money, it is already spent.

Eric_Davis
05-01-2007, 03:26 PM
There is only one Milton stat that concerns me.....and maybe should concern the Reds and their sponsors.

When I know Milton is starting, I don't even turn the game on.

But another stat you might want to look at.....I think the Reds were something like 4-1 at Milton's first start....and something like 7-4 at his next.

He has started them on several losing trends already this season.

What was the reasoning behind releasing Jimmy Haynes and his 2 million dollar salary? As I recall, Narron said something like, "not going to have many winning streaks with him in your rotation."

I think the same is true for Milton and he should be released.....forget the money, it is already spent.

Maybe if they'd score a run when he pitches they might win a game.

In 4 starts, they've scored a total of 1 run for him.

It doesn't look to get any better as he goes against Oswalt (17-1 lifetime vs the REDS) on Thursday.

Right now, the REDS are the worst hitting team in the National League. They need to hit better. Milton's pitched fine for a #5 starter.

BRM
05-01-2007, 04:06 PM
Right now, the REDS are the worst hitting team in the National League. They need to hit better. Milton's pitched fine for a #5 starter.

10th in runs
13th in batting average
11th in OBP
9th in SLG
10th in OPS

They have been bad but they aren't the worst.

BRM
05-01-2007, 04:19 PM
Per John Fay:



On the Milton debate

Good points by all. Eric Milton hasn't pitched terribly. But he and Rheal Cormier are examples of how contracts affect decisions. I doubt that either one would have made the club out of spring training if they had not been under contract for big bucks.

In the NFL, they would have been released. Baseball's guaranteed contracts take away flexibility from GMs. Wayne Krivsky inherited Milton's. Cormier's was his fault.

I don't think the Reds can afford -- from a publicity standpoint -- to keep running Milton out there if the club remains 0-f0r in his starts.

15fan
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
Per John Fay: In the NFL, they would have been released. Baseball's guaranteed contracts take away flexibility from GMs.

So in baseball, a guaranteed contract is actually guaranteed.

In the NFL, however, a guaranteed contract isn't guaranteed at all.

Seems to me that one of the leagues has a disconnect between the concept of "guaranteed" and the way they are applying it.

Eric_Davis
05-01-2007, 08:39 PM
10th in runs
13th in batting average
11th in OBP
9th in SLG
10th in OPS

They have been bad but they aren't the worst.


I was in a hurry (at work and something came up), and I saw they were generally ranked about 10th in most categories. Maybe I did post this somewhere else. But as far as Milton is concerned, they may as well be Little Leaguers when he's pitching. One run scored in 21 innings pitched through 4 starts doesn't help.

And he has pitched well enough for what he is. No one expects him to all of a sudden be a #2 starter. 4.11 ERA in his last 3 starts. And he gave up 4 runs in his first start. I would love it if our #5 starters only give up an ERA of 4.71 for the year.