View Full Version : April Reds ERA vs. ERMA

04-30-2007, 04:12 PM
ERMA is a statistic that David Luciani came up with. It is a statistic similar to Bill James ERC. It is explained, somewhat, in this article. http://baseballnotebook.blogspot.com/2007/04/good-luck-bad-luck.html

Here are how Cincinnati pitchers stack up using this formula.

HARANG 4.23 3.73 0.50
ARROYO 2.86 2.63 0.23
LOHSE 2.88 3.37 -0.49
BELISLE 3.45 2.37 1.08
MILTON 4.71 4.62 0.09

START: 3.55 3.26 0.29

BURTON 0.00 21.35 -21.35
COFFEY 6.57 8.46 -1.89
CORMIER 9.00 9.75 -0.75
COUTLA 4.91 6.41 -1.50
SAARLO 4.76 4.34 0.42
SANTOS 2.38 3.30 -0.92
STANT 4.91 5.18 -0.27
WEATHE 2.70 2.59 0.11

RELIEF 4.57 5.37 -0.80

TEAM 3.84 3.86 -0.02

Pitcher's name in red indicate ERA probably higher than it should be.
Pitcher's name in blue indicate ERA probably lower than it should be.
Pitcher's name in black indicate ERA is about right.

If a pitcher's ERA is greater than his ERMA he is considered to have been unlucky to a certain extent. His Diff will be a positive number. If a pitcher's ERA is less than his ERMA he is considered to have been lucky. His Diff will be negative.

According to ERMA the starters have been somewhat unlucky in April. And the relievers have actually pitched a little worse than their collective ERA might seem to indicate.

The good news is that overall the ERMA and ERA numbers are just about the same. That would indicate that, as a staff, the Reds have not been lucky so far. Their ERA is just about where it should be with respect to their pitching peripherals.

04-30-2007, 04:32 PM
I thought Belisle's ERA would be the lowest.