PDA

View Full Version : Harden being shopped??



klw
05-01-2007, 04:06 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/mlb_experts/post/Five-and-Fly-A-s-shop-Harden;_ylt=Akvzkf9gc9vUpQLGmO5lPn4RvLYF?urn=mlb,3 0852

It will be interesting if this goes anywhere.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:12 PM
The Reds starting pitching has been better then expected - I think they could use a RP or someone who can hit for average (see Sean Casey).

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
05-01-2007, 04:15 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/mlb_experts/post/Five-and-Fly-A-s-shop-Harden;_ylt=Akvzkf9gc9vUpQLGmO5lPn4RvLYF?urn=mlb,3 0852

It will be interesting if this goes anywhere.
I love the fact that we have made a couple of deals with them already. If they do decide to tear it down it will make it much eaier for us to get in on the action. My question to all of you is, if available would you grab Piazza to play first and platoon at catcher? This would open up a trade of Conine which if he keeps up his pace could land a prospect or two from a team in need of a bat. Just a thought.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
05-01-2007, 04:19 PM
The Reds starting pitching has been better then expected - I think they could use a RP or someone who can hit for average (see Sean Casey).
(See Sean Casey's numbers) 1.92 AVG

nmculbreth
05-01-2007, 04:20 PM
Pass. Harden's health is way too unreliable to merit serious consideration.

AdamDunn
05-01-2007, 04:21 PM
umm... Rich Harden shouldn't start anymore. He should be a closer or something because of his arm problems. Travis Wood anyone?

Benihana
05-01-2007, 04:23 PM
Ummm, anyone who would be so shortsighted as to think the Reds pitching could hold up all year is foolish. Harden, if healthy is a top 5 starter in baseball. Obviously the key is his health.

My question is this: Would you trade Adam Dunn straight up for him?

I would have to consider it, but right now I'm leaning no. Travis Wood? I would send him and anyone not named Bailey, Bruce, Hamilton, or Dunn right now. (Obviously I wouldn't trade Harang or Arroyo either.) Anyone else would be fair game.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:24 PM
Point being -- it'd be nice to have a guy like Casey who typically hits over
.300 and drives in runs....

rotnoid
05-01-2007, 04:26 PM
I love the fact that we have made a couple of deals with them already. If they do decide to tear it down it will make it much eaier for us to get in on the action. My question to all of you is, if available would you grab Piazza to play first and platoon at catcher? This would open up a trade of Conine which if he keeps up his pace could land a prospect or two from a team in need of a bat. Just a thought.

At this point, it seems like a wash. Trade prospects for Piazza and then trade Conine for prospects. No offense to what Piazza's done, but he's not exactly lighting it up this year, slugging .368. I'll stick with Conine for now thanks.

CaiGuy
05-01-2007, 04:28 PM
Point being -- it'd be nice to have a guy like Casey who typically hits over
.300 and drives in runs....

Dunn doesn't bat .300 but drives in more runs than Casey.

But I agree, they need offense.

paintmered
05-01-2007, 04:32 PM
Point being -- it'd be nice to have a guy like Casey who typically hits over
.300 and drives in runs.

Sean Casey 2007 Stats:


SPLIT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Season 23 78 3 15 4 0 0 1 0 .192 .259 .244

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:33 PM
Dunn's career numbers show he hits a lot of solo HRs - this year has been different and I hope it continues. When a guy hits 45 HRs and only has 90 RBIs -- you'd think he'd drive in more runs.

I sure wish he could cut down on the K's.

RedsManRick
05-01-2007, 04:34 PM
I could see the A's going after Tabata from the Yanks for him.

paintmered
05-01-2007, 04:35 PM
Dunn's career numbers show he hits a lot of solo HRs - this year has been different and I hope it continues. When a guy hits 45 HRs and only has 90 RBIs -- you'd think he'd drive in more runs.

I sure wish he could cut down on the K's.

Is that a reflection on his hitting ability? Or is that a reflection of the ability of batters high in the order to get on base?

The answer is the latter.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:36 PM
The season is still young.

NorrisHopper30
05-01-2007, 04:38 PM
The Yankees will buy him then he'll get injured.

paintmered
05-01-2007, 04:39 PM
The season is still young.

In nearly 1500 at bats between 2004 and 2006, he averaged only 72 RBI per season. Are those seasons still young too?

Over 1300 of these at bats came from the #3, 4, and 5 spot in the order.

CaiGuy
05-01-2007, 04:39 PM
back to the point, though, Harden would be a huge pickup, but I doubt that he would be cheap, injured or not. It would be a risk, but if a fair deal could be made, you do it. He is a great pitcher.

rotnoid
05-01-2007, 04:40 PM
In nearly 1500 at bats between 2004 and 2006, he averaged only 72 RBI per season. Are those seasons still young too?

You're letting facts get in the way of a purely emotional argument. ;)

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:41 PM
He is batting .236 with runners in scoring position over the past three years....

pedro
05-01-2007, 04:42 PM
He is batting .236 with runners in scoring position over the past three years....

Isn't this thread about pitcher Rich Harden?

CaiGuy
05-01-2007, 04:42 PM
nm

BRM
05-01-2007, 04:45 PM
Isn't this thread about pitcher Rich Harden?

Every thread is a good "Adam Dunn isn't a run producer" thread.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:48 PM
I don't mean to trash Dunn...just kind of ballooned.

M2
05-01-2007, 04:49 PM
Dunn's career numbers show he hits a lot of solo HRs - this year has been different and I hope it continues. When a guy hits 45 HRs and only has 90 RBIs -- you'd think he'd drive in more runs.

I sure wish he could cut down on the K's.

His career numbers show he hits homers with runners on base about as often as Lance Berkman (43% to 45%) and a lot more often than David Ortiz (37%).

bucksfan2
05-01-2007, 04:50 PM
I would do Dunn for Harden in a heartbeat. That guy is an ace pitcher when healthy. It sure would be nice to have a rotation of Harden, Harang, Arroyo, Baily, Lohse.

As for needing Casey I just dont get it. They dont need another left handed hitter in the lineup period. Not to mention that there is better value in both Conine and Hatty. Casey is gone please just deal with it.

M2
05-01-2007, 04:51 PM
If I'm Beane, I'd offer Harden and Mark Kotsay to the Reds for Dunn and Belisle.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 04:52 PM
Casey also hit .300 with runners in scoring position and struck out 34 times -- Dunn 134 times (with his .236 avg).

I am not trashing Dunn but guys with similar HR totals have more RBIs - not to mention a much better RBI to K ratio.

BRM
05-01-2007, 04:53 PM
Casey also hit .300 with runners in scoring position and struck out 34 times -- Dunn 134 times (with his .236 avg).


And Dunn still outproduced him.

rotnoid
05-01-2007, 04:54 PM
If I'm Beane, I'd offer Harden and Mark Kotsay to the Reds for Dunn and Belisle.


I'm not sure the salary works for Beane, but if I'm the Reds, I'd think about it.

For 2007 Only

Dunn 10.5 Million
Belisle 390 K

Harden 2 Million
Kotsay 7 Million

The kicker comes with Dunn's option and impending free agency and Belisle's arbitration. Plus Harden's a fixed cost until after 2009. He'l make 4.5 million next year and has a 7 million dollar club option for 2009. I'd think Beane will trade him next year, not now.

Johnny Footstool
05-01-2007, 04:55 PM
Harden isn't going anywhere.

Beane probably called Epstein to chat, and Harden's name came up. Some reporter took that and ran with it.

Chip R
05-01-2007, 04:55 PM
Isn't this thread about pitcher Rich Harden?


Yes. Let's try to stay on topic, people. Plenty of other Dunn bashing threads out there to pile...I mean post on.

Sea Ray
05-01-2007, 04:55 PM
If I'm Beane, I'd offer Harden and Mark Kotsay to the Reds for Dunn and Belisle.

When has Oakland ever shown the desire to stomach a $13mill/yr ballplayer?

This would be totally out of character for Billy Beane. Look for him to try to get AAA talent, not 6 or 7 yr veterans. Those are the most expensive players in the game.

pedro
05-01-2007, 04:56 PM
Casey also hit .300 with runners in scoring position and struck out 34 times -- Dunn 134 times (with his .236 avg).

I am not trashing Dunn but guys with similar HR totals have more RBIs - not to mention a much better RBI to K ratio.

None of which is very meaningful at all.

As for whether I'd trade Dunn for Harden it really depends on Harden's health and when he is going to be a FA (after 2008 I believe). I'm sure the Reds are at the point where they are considering what their options are with Dunn b/c I'm not convinced that they'll want to be paying him 13 million in 2008

TC81190
05-01-2007, 04:57 PM
Ummm, anyone who would be so shortsighted as to think the Reds pitching could hold up all year is foolish. Harden, if healthy is a top 5 starter in baseball. Obviously the key is his health.

My question is this: Would you trade Adam Dunn straight up for him?

I would have to consider it, but right now I'm leaning no. Travis Wood? I would send him and anyone not named Bailey, Bruce, Hamilton, or Dunn right now. (Obviously I wouldn't trade Harang or Arroyo either.) Anyone else would be fair game.

I can't believe after Dunn's noted decline and not so hot start this year people are still making statements like this. I'd trade 5 Dunns for Rich Harden.

dougdirt
05-01-2007, 04:58 PM
Casey also hit .300 with runners in scoring position and struck out 34 times -- Dunn 134 times (with his .236 avg).

I am not trashing Dunn but guys with similar HR totals have more RBIs - not to mention a much better RBI to K ratio.

And he also led the world in double plays, which ended many innings or potential rallies as he erased base runners. Batting average is a bad stat to look at. Adam Dunn out OPS'd Casey with runners on base.

dougdirt
05-01-2007, 04:59 PM
I don't think the A's would want Adam Dunn....at his current salary. He makes a lot of money now, will make even more in the future and the A's tend to stay away from players like that.

Yachtzee
05-01-2007, 04:59 PM
I am not trashing Dunn but guys with similar HR totals have more RBIs - not to mention a much better RBI to K ratio.

But isn't that a function of guys not getting on base consistently ahead of Dunn? Statistics have been shown that Dunn performs roughly the same with runners on v. bases empty. If that's true, then maybe Dunn's "low" RBI totals you're looking at are a result of out-making players batting ahead of him.

Doro
05-01-2007, 04:59 PM
Dunn is the type of player Beane loves. High OBP and high Slugging%.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 05:00 PM
Over the past 3 seasons Berkman also hits .315 with RISP (compared to Dunn's .236) with 65 K's.

Ortiz hits .331 with RISP with 88 K's (including 24 HRs).

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:01 PM
Dunn is the type of player Beane loves. High OBP and high Slugging%.

And he's also the kind Beane does not love. High $$$.

TC81190
05-01-2007, 05:02 PM
But isn't that a function of guys not getting on base consistently ahead of Dunn? Statistics have been shown that Dunn performs roughly the same with runners on v. bases empty. If that's true, then maybe Dunn's "low" RBI totals you're looking at are a result of out-making players batting ahead of him.

That's not a good argument though, and I think this every time somebody says that, it's been shown that when runners DO get on, he does bad, so it's not a result of people not getting on.

And as far as Dunn OPSing over Casey with runners on, so? When there are ducks on the ponds, I want a guy up who gets the job done most frequently.

Yachtzee
05-01-2007, 05:02 PM
I don't think the A's would want Adam Dunn....at his current salary. He makes a lot of money now, will make even more in the future and the A's tend to stay away from players like that.

You're most likely right. The A's like to exploit market inefficiencies and right now the market is aware of Dunn's value. Now if Dunn were to make less money on his next contact because everyone gets down on him for the Ks, look for the A's to make a play.

dougdirt
05-01-2007, 05:03 PM
Over the past 3 seasons Berkman also hits .315 with RISP (compared to Dunn's .236) with 65 K's.

Ortiz hits .331 with RISP with 88 K's (including 24 HRs).

Please dont bring up strikeouts. I will take a strikeout with a runner on base. At least its not a ground ball.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:03 PM
Casey also hit .300 with runners in scoring position and struck out 34 times -- Dunn 134 times (with his .236 avg).

I am not trashing Dunn but guys with similar HR totals have more RBIs - not to mention a much better RBI to K ratio.

Why in the world should anyone care about something as bogus as RBI/K ratio? It's worthless. It would tell you Ken Oberkfell was a better RBI man than Mike Schmidt.

As for Casey, Dunn averages more RBIs per 162 games. Also, Dunn's got a higher SLG w/ RISP (though it's close). Casey's fine in that department, but Dunn's slightly better and SLG, not BA, is what gets you RBIs.

lollipopcurve
05-01-2007, 05:03 PM
Harden's injury history is long. I'd be very wary.

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 05:04 PM
You are correct but there are also many other variables. How long did it take him last year to hit a scarifice? I remember it was quite some time and something Jones/Brenneman harped on.

I think the stats speak for themselves in regards to Dunn's low RBI total concerning his high HR totals and I would not trade Dunn for Rich Hardin LOL.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:04 PM
And he's also the kind Beane does not love. High $$$.

That's why I figure the Reds would have to be taking Kotsay back. He makes $8M. Plus, Kotsay would fit in with the pitching and defense mantra.

pedro
05-01-2007, 05:04 PM
That's not a good argument though, and I think this every time somebody says that, it's been shown that when runners DO get on, he does bad, so it's not a result of people not getting on.

And as far as Dunn OPSing over Casey with runners on, so? When there are ducks on the ponds, I want a guy up who gets the job done most frequently.

come on guys, do we have to rehash the Dunn crap over and over again?

there are a zillion other threads that discuss this issue (most of which refute your argument I might add)

PuffyPig
05-01-2007, 05:06 PM
If Harden was healthy, there's no way that oakland would trade him until he gets much closer to FA.

If he's available now, Beane wouldn't want a done for him, he'd want a Bailey and a Bruce. And you'll find you get an injured harden.

Harden is just too risky (and player expensive) for the Reds to get.

Yachtzee
05-01-2007, 05:07 PM
That's not a good argument though, and I think this every time somebody says that, it's been shown that when runners DO get on, he does bad, so it's not a result of people not getting on.

And as far as Dunn OPSing over Casey with runners on, so? When there are ducks on the ponds, I want a guy up who gets the job done most frequently.

So you want Dunn batting that situation? With or without runners on, Dunn is good at hitting for power and not making outs, both good traits. Casey, OTOH, has shown a high propensity to ground into double plays. So you would take the guy who avoids outs in that situation to a guy who gives you two outs for the price of one? Good luck with that.

PuffyPig
05-01-2007, 05:08 PM
Over the past 3 seasons Berkman also hits .315 with RISP (compared to Dunn's .236) with 65 K's.

Ortiz hits .331 with RISP with 88 K's (including 24 HRs).

Which is about what all 3 hit usually.

So, Dunn, like Berkman and Ortiz, perform about the same with RISP as in other situations.

Dunn hits for a lower average, that's a fact. But it's not like he even does worse once runners are on base.

klw
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
Here's a story on Harden's contract extention. 4.5 mil for 08, Club option at 7 mil for 09
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2028447

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
I don't want Casey back - I was just using him as an example of someone being able to drive in runs with RISP.

TC81190
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
Why in the world should anyone care about something as bogus as RBI/K ratio? It's worthless. It would tell you Ken Oberkfell was a better RBI man than Mike Schmidt.

As for Casey, Dunn averages more RBIs per 162 games. Also, Dunn's got a higher SLG w/ RISP (though it's close). Casey's fine in that department, but Dunn's slightly better and SLG, not BA, is what gets you RBIs.

I don't know...I'd think getting hits more often would get you more RBI.

paintmered
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
come on guys, do we have to rehash the Dunn crap over and over again?

there are a zillion other threads that discuss this issue (most of which refute your argument I might add)

Yes, let's get this thread back on topic.

blumj
05-01-2007, 05:09 PM
Harden isn't going anywhere.

Beane probably called Epstein to chat, and Harden's name came up. Some reporter took that and ran with it.
Ha, this is just how Beane informs the Yankees that he's open for business, he makes sure a reporter finds out he talked to the Red Sox.

TC81190
05-01-2007, 05:11 PM
So you want Dunn batting that situation? With or without runners on, Dunn is good at hitting for power and not making outs, both good traits. Casey, OTOH, has shown a high propensity to ground into double plays. So you would take the guy who avoids outs in that situation to a guy who gives you two outs for the price of one? Good luck with that.

I'd take Casey, because while he does ground into a few DPs, he gets hits much more frequently, which is what drives runs in.

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:11 PM
That's why I figure the Reds would have to be taking Kotsay back. He makes $8M. Plus, Kotsay would fit in with the pitching and defense mantra.

The 2007 salaries would essentially wash in that deal. Dunn's 2008 option is voided if traded IIRC. Kotsay also has a limited no trade clause this year and next so he'd have to approve the deal.

TC81190
05-01-2007, 05:12 PM
And for Harden I'd offer:

Dunn, Medlock (Wayne won't ever use him)

for

Harden, Kotsay

klw
05-01-2007, 05:13 PM
Let's say it was Harden for Dunn, would the A's look to throw on Jason Kendall and the $13 million he is being paid this year. The A's other big contracts are Loiza, Kotsay, Chavez, and Piazza.

dougdirt
05-01-2007, 05:13 PM
I'd take Casey, because while he does ground into a few DPs, he gets hits much more frequently, which is what drives runs in.
Yeah, and that really showed as he produced tons of RBI....

M2
05-01-2007, 05:13 PM
When has Oakland ever shown the desire to stomach a $13mill/yr ballplayer?

This would be totally out of character for Billy Beane. Look for him to try to get AAA talent, not 6 or 7 yr veterans. Those are the most expensive players in the game.

Over the past decade, if there's one thing I've learned it's that NO ONE is more willing to break type and run against his supposed grain than Billy Beane. Far as I can tell, the only question he ever asks himself is "will this help my team?" If the answer is yes, then I'd expect he'd figure out a way to make the money work. Plus, the deal I mentioned is close to even money and Dunn's 2008 team option disappears if he's traded. Meanwhile, Kotsay costs roughly $10M in 2008.

Yachtzee
05-01-2007, 05:13 PM
Ha, this is just how Beane informs the Yankees that he's open for business, he makes sure a reporter finds out he talked to the Red Sox.

I wonder if it would work for the Reds.

Wayne: "I was just talking to Theo and he said the Red Sox would really like to have Eric Milton. Said they'd need veteran starters and don't think Papelbon will succeed in making the switch to starter."

jdoncbus
05-01-2007, 05:16 PM
Reds are pretty loaded at C (see David Ross' contract).....unless Kendall is playing somewhere else these days.

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:16 PM
Meanwhile, Kotsay costs roughly $10M in 2008.

MLB4U shows $7M in 2008, plus a 325K relocation bonus if traded in 2007 or 2008.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:19 PM
Over the past 3 seasons Berkman also hits .315 with RISP (compared to Dunn's .236) with 65 K's.

Ortiz hits .331 with RISP with 88 K's (including 24 HRs).

Thanks for the bait and switch. You said Dunn hit a particularly low percentage of homers w/ RISP. You were wrong. BTW, he hit 33 HR w/ RISP over the past three seasons, which would be more than Papi did (or Berkman, 25). Those other two guys are better offensive players than Dunn. I doubt anyone would tell you otherwise, but that doesn't mean you need to invent fictional reasons to bash him.

klw
05-01-2007, 05:21 PM
[QUOTE=Sea Ray;1325945]When has Oakland ever shown the desire to stomach a $13mill/yr ballplayer?
QUOTE]

Jason Kendall is at 13mil plus this year and that money is coming off their books at the end of the season. It looks like the Pirates are paying $5 mil of that this year.
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20041129125715999

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:23 PM
[quote=Sea Ray;1325945]When has Oakland ever shown the desire to stomach a $13mill/yr ballplayer?
QUOTE]

Jason Kendall is at 13mil plus this year and that money is coming off their books at the end of the season. It looks like the Pirates are paying $5 mil of that this year.
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20041129125715999

Chavez is their highest paid player when you look at what the A's are paying. He's making 9M in 2007 and is due 11M in 2008, 11M in 2009 and 12M in 2010.

klw
05-01-2007, 05:23 PM
Just to explode everyone's head.

Would you do?

Adam Dunn
EE

for
Eric Chavez http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/7189564
R Harden

pedro
05-01-2007, 05:26 PM
Just to explode everyone's head.

Would you do?

Adam Dunn
EE

for
Eric Chavez http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/athletics/2004-03-18-chavez-contract_x.htm
R Harden


One of the big problems I see with this it would make the Reds even more LH.

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:29 PM
One of the big problems I see with this it would make the Reds even more LH.

It should end up the same. Right now there are four lefties in the lineup against RHP - Hat, Dunn, Hamilton, Junior. There would still be four with this trade - Hat, Chavez, Hamilton, Junior. Freel would be an everyday player again.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:29 PM
I don't know...I'd think getting hits more often would get you more RBI.

Only problem is, it doesn't. It's not a matter for debate. This is as solid as four balls equals a walk. Guys who get a lot of hits, but don't have much power attached to it are lousy at driving in runs. It's why Ichiro doesn't hit cleanup. Guys who have low BAs, but lots of power are pretty good at driving runs.

Obviously you'd like both (e.g. Albert Pujols), but RBIs correlate to SLG. They don't track to BA at all. In fact, I'm relatively sure you'd find that players with high K totals (120+) do better in the RBI department than guys with hig BAs (.300+). That's how weak the relationship between BA and RBIs is.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:33 PM
One of the big problems I see with this it would make the Reds even more LH.

Yankees Dynasty Rule #1 - You can never be too left-handed.

Though the deal wouldn't work because the Reds couldn't afford it, because Beane highly values Chavez's glove and because the A's would surely want an arm back who could pitch in their rotation.

pedro
05-01-2007, 05:34 PM
It should end up the same. Right now there are four lefties in the lineup against RHP - Hat, Dunn, Hamilton, Junior. There would still be four with this trade - Hat, Chavez, Hamilton, Junior. Freel would be an everyday player again.


yeah, but they'd be losing power from the RH side which they sorely need.

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:34 PM
but RBIs correlate to SLG.

Maybe I'm crazy but it sure seems like you've posted that line many, many times before. ;)

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:34 PM
yeah, but they'd be losing power from the RH side which they sorely need.

Very good point. It would make the team even more prone to LHP.

TC81190
05-01-2007, 05:37 PM
I just don't believe that...

pedro
05-01-2007, 05:39 PM
Yankees Dynasty Rule #1 - You can never be too left-handed.




In Yankee Stadium that's probably more true than at the GAPB. Left Center in that park eats RH power hitters alive.

paintmered
05-01-2007, 05:41 PM
I just don't believe that...

Well Virginia, this is 120 years of baseball history speaking, whether you want to believe it or not.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:43 PM
Maybe I'm crazy but it sure seems like you've posted that line many, many times before. ;)

You are correct, sir. You'd think folks would have noticed that Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro and Rod Carew weren't big with the RBIs. Those are the premier BA men of my lifetime.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:45 PM
Well Virginia, this is 120 years of baseball history speaking, whether you want to believe it or not.

Exactly. Plus, it's kind of obvious.

M2
05-01-2007, 05:50 PM
In Yankee Stadium that's probably more true than at the GAPB. Left Center in that park eats RH power hitters alive.

You don't build dynasties by just winning at home. Plus, my take on the current Reds team is that it's in danger of falling into the severe RH tilt that dogged the club for much of the late '90s. Hatteberg and Valentin are bit players. Jr.'s near the end of his rope. Hobbs could go poof. If Dunn's gone then the team had better be getting some LH hitting from somewhere.

klw
05-01-2007, 05:53 PM
You are correct, sir. You'd think folks would have noticed that Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro and Rod Carew weren't big with the RBIs. Those are the premier BA men of my lifetime.


Isn't this thrown off by their hitting leadoff?

Redsland
05-01-2007, 05:55 PM
Isn't this thrown off by their hitting leadoff?
Why? The pitcher just bunted someone into scoring position.

westofyou
05-01-2007, 05:55 PM
Sean Casey eh?

:bowrofl:

BRM
05-01-2007, 05:55 PM
Isn't this thrown off by their hitting leadoff?

Gwynn actually had most of his plate appearances in the 3 hole by the way. Most of Carew's were hitting 2nd.

klw
05-01-2007, 05:58 PM
Gwynn actually had most of his plate appearances in the 3 hole by the way. Most of Carew's were hitting 2nd.

Yeah I thought I could be wrong there. Though in Carew's best BA year he drove in 100 with only 14 hrs, preceeding two years he drove in 80 and 90 and had over 1000 for his career. Gwynn also drove in as many as 117 in one of his later years.

BRM
05-01-2007, 06:01 PM
Yeah I thought I could be wrong there. Though in Carew's best BA year he drove in 100 with only 14 hrs, preceeding two years he drove in 80 and 90.

Those were his best slugging years. Carew slugged .570 in 1977, the year he drove in 100 runs. He never topped .500 in a full season any other year although he came close in 1975 when he slugged .497. He drove in 80 that year.

dabvu2498
05-01-2007, 06:02 PM
Career:
Sean Casey 665 RBI 5015 Plate Appearances = 1 RBI every 7.54 PA
Adam Dunn 478 RBI 3568 Plate Appearance = 1 RBI every 7.46 PA

That's closer than I would have guessed (and yes, I remember that RBI don't matter much).

klw
05-01-2007, 06:04 PM
Gwynn also drove in as many as 117 in one of his later years.
Which was also one of his best slugging years. I thought I would admit this and that I see your point while saving you the typing. :)

westofyou
05-01-2007, 06:07 PM
In most cases Slugging drives the bus in the game of getting RBI's

Here are 2 lists from 1970-1990 each is a list of guys with the most hits, the slugging vs the league is what divides them and eventually the number of runs they drive in. Those with a slg% greater the league drove in more runs and those without the slugging drove in less.


SEASON
1970-1990
RBI vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG >= .000 vs. the league average

HITS YEAR H RBI SLG
1 Wade Boggs 1985 240 8 .072
2 Rod Carew 1977 239 37 .165
3 Don Mattingly 1986 238 38 .165
4 Kirby Puckett 1988 234 52 .154
T5 Joe Torre 1971 230 76 .175
T5 Willie Wilson 1980 230 -28 .022
T5 Pete Rose 1973 230 -7 .046
8 Kirby Puckett 1986 223 18 .129
T9 Ralph Garr 1971 219 -21 .061
T9 Cecil Cooper 1980 219 53 .139
T11 Rod Carew 1974 218 -6 .074
T11 Tony Gwynn 1987 218 -13 .092
13 Willie McGee 1985 216 20 .116
T14 Pete Rose 1976 215 -5 .075
T14 Kirby Puckett 1989 215 18 .081
T14 Dave Parker 1977 215 16 .120
T14 George Brett 1976 215 4 .101
T18 Ralph Garr 1974 214 -8 .124
T18 Wade Boggs 1988 214 -3 .099
T20 Dave Cash 1975 213 -18 .004
T20 Jim Rice 1978 213 67 .215
T20 Tony Gwynn 1984 213 7 .061
T20 Tony Fernandez 1986 213 -16 .020

SLG <= .000 vs. the league average

HITS YEAR H RBI SLG
1 Dave Cash 1974 206 -16 -.001
2 Cesar Tovar 1971 204 -23 -.010
3 Matty Alou 1970 201 -35 -.052
4 Kirby Puckett 1985 199 -9 -.021
T5 Rennie Stennett 1974 196 -20 -.005
T5 Omar Moreno 1979 196 -13 -.018
7 Rick Burleson 1977 194 -28 -.024
8 Gene Richards 1980 193 -29 -.003
T9 Larry Bowa 1978 192 -27 -.015
T9 Brett Butler 1990 192 -28 -.013
11 Felix Millan 1975 191 -22 -.036
12 Tito Fuentes 1977 190 -21 -.008
13 Dave Cash 1976 189 -17 -.029
T14 Dave Cash 1977 188 -35 -.035
T14 Julio Franco 1984 188 0 -.050
16 Tony Fernandez 1988 186 -3 -.005
T17 Felix Millan 1973 185 -37 -.038
T17 Rafael Ramirez 1983 185 -11 -.022
T17 Pete Rose 1980 185 -9 -.033
T17 Greg Gross 1974 185 -30 -.002
T17 Damaso Garcia 1982 185 -28 -.004
T17 Barry Larkin 1990 185 -4 -.001

PuffyPig
05-01-2007, 06:07 PM
Career:
Sean Casey 665 RBI 5015 Plate Appearances = 1 RBI every 7.54 PA
Adam Dunn 478 RBI 3568 Plate Appearance = 1 RBI every 7.46 PA

That's closer than I would have guessed (and yes, I remember that RBI don't matter much).

Yes, but you probably need to do it a per AB basis. Otherwise, you are penalizing Dunn when he's walked.

klw
05-01-2007, 06:08 PM
[QUOTE=dabvu2498;1326040]Career:
Sean Casey 665 RBI 5015 Plate Appearances = 1 RBI every 7.54 PA
Adam Dunn 478 RBI 3568 Plate Appearance = 1 RBI every 7.46 PA
QUOTE]

Garret Anderson 1138 RBI 7535 Plate appearances = 1 RBI every 6.62

Career .296 .326 .469

Not sure why I chose him other than he always seems to have a low obp and high rbi total. His stat lines have always struck me for some reason.

M2
05-01-2007, 06:10 PM
Isn't this thrown off by their hitting leadoff?

Little bit, though why did they hit higher in the lineup in the first place? I mean, if BA = RBIs, and once again it doesn't, then these guys should have been hitting cleanup, right?

Gwynn actually hit 3rd more than anywhere else and averaged 79 RBIs per 600 PAs there. He hit .342. Rod Carew averaged 68 RBIs per 600 PAs in the #3 slot. He hit .336 there. Boggs averaged 63 RBIs per 600 PA in the #3 slot. He hit .329.

Joe Carter hit .262 as a #3 hitter and averaged 93 RBIs per 600 PAs there. Rob Deer hit .220 for his career and averaged 80 RBIs per 600 PAs.

westofyou
05-01-2007, 06:11 PM
Career:
Sean Casey 665 RBI 5015 Plate Appearances = 1 RBI every 7.54 PA
Adam Dunn 478 RBI 3568 Plate Appearance = 1 RBI every 7.46 PA

That's closer than I would have guessed (and yes, I remember that RBI don't matter much). 33% of Casey's RBI's came during the big hitting era 1999-2001, 1999 (#1) and 2000 (#4) are both two the highest scoring team Reds history.

BRM
05-01-2007, 06:11 PM
Yes, but you probably need to do it a per AB basis. Otherwise, you are penalizing Dunn when he's walked.

1 every 6.1 ABs for Dunn
1 every 6.7 ABs for Casey

BRM
05-01-2007, 06:12 PM
I love it when I see a Rob Deer reference. :)

dabvu2498
05-01-2007, 06:12 PM
Yes, but you probably need to do it a per AB basis. Otherwise, you are penalizing Dunn when he's walked.

Or perhaps rewarding Casey for when he didn't. ;)

Either way, it's still closer than I would have guessed.

AD: 2920 AB's, 478 RBI = 1 RBI every 6.10 AB's
SC: 4492 AB's, 665 RBI = 1 RBI every 6.75 AB's

(And yes, I still remember RBIs don't matter much.)

Jr's Boy
05-01-2007, 06:14 PM
It would take an arm and a leg to get Harden.When he's healthy he's a stud pitcher.

klw
05-01-2007, 06:16 PM
It would take an arm and a leg to get Harden.When he's healthy he's a stud pitcher.

Well this was a pretty blatant attempt to steer this back to the original topic. :beerme:
I agree and would be surprised if he is going anyway absent a real slobberknockker.

dabvu2498
05-01-2007, 06:17 PM
33&#37; of Casey's RBI's came during the big hitting era 1999-2001, 1999 (#1) and 2000 (#4) are both two the highest scoring team Reds history.

And 21% of Dunn's career RBI total came in 1 year (2005), in which the Reds scored 820 runs. Not sure where that ranks in team history, but I'd guess it was pretty high.

Razor Shines
05-01-2007, 06:19 PM
Well hat's off guys. I don't know who did it, but somebody managed to turn a Rich Harden thread into another SLG = RBI debate. Even though there's not really much to debate.

westofyou
05-01-2007, 06:20 PM
And 21% of Dunn's career RBI total came in 1 year (2005), in which the Reds scored 820 runs. Not sure where that ranks in team history, but I'd guess it was pretty high.

It is #6 and yes all that stuff matters... there is no coincidence that Tommy Harpers best Runs scored year (125) is the same year that Deron Johnson had his best RBI year (130)

BRM
05-01-2007, 06:20 PM
Well hat's off guys. I don't know who did it, but somebody managed to turn a Rich Harden thread into another SLG = RBI debate. Even though there's not really much to debate.

I was planning on blaming you. ;)

Razor Shines
05-01-2007, 06:23 PM
I was planning on blaming you. ;)

That's cool. I figured since we were both IU guys we'd blame WilyMo, but if you want to sell out your fellow Hoosier than that's fine too.

BRM
05-01-2007, 06:24 PM
That's cool. I figured since we were both IU guys we'd blame WilyMo, but if you want to sell out your fellow Hoosier than that's fine too.

Hence the smiley. I've already secretly blamed WilyMo. ;)

Strikes Out Looking
05-01-2007, 06:27 PM
To summarize:

Rich Harden isn't going to Cincy (or Boston for that matter--see Lester, Jon)
Adam Dunn isn't going to Oakland
Sean Casey isn't coming back to Cincy
Adam Dunn K's alot
Sean Casey grounds out alot
Rich Harden is hurt much of the time
They all make way too much money

RichRed
05-01-2007, 06:34 PM
To summarize:

Rich Harden isn't going to Cincy (or Boston for that matter--see Lester, Jon)
Adam Dunn isn't going to Oakland
Sean Casey isn't coming back to Cincy
Adam Dunn K's alot
Sean Casey grounds out alot
Rich Harden is hurt much of the time
They all make way too much money

Why couldn't you have done that on the first page and saved me some time? ;)

Sea Ray
05-01-2007, 06:51 PM
If Harden was healthy, there's no way that oakland would trade him until he gets much closer to FA.

If he's available now, Beane wouldn't want a done for him, he'd want a Bailey and a Bruce. And you'll find you get an injured harden.

Harden is just too risky (and player expensive) for the Reds to get.

Wow. This one post says more than the previous 49 put together...bravo

Tom Servo
05-01-2007, 07:55 PM
Am I the first to make this joke?

Harden = PTBNL in the Deno trade. :cool:

KronoRed
05-01-2007, 07:58 PM
Am I the first to make this joke?

Harden = PTBNL in the Deno trade. :cool:

Brilliant.

cacollinsmba
05-01-2007, 08:02 PM
Yankees Dynasty Rule #1 - You can never be too left-handed.


Totally agree. GABP was designed and built with a certain power-hitting left-handed hitter in mind, if memory serves me correctly.

AtomicDumpling
05-02-2007, 03:58 AM
I would be very hesitant to make a go after Harden. I think it is dangerous for our inexperienced General Manager (with a history of getting ripped off in trades) to negotiate with the master -- Billy Beane. Beane has a history of building very good teams in spite of small payrolls. He didn't accomplish that by trading away good players. If Beane wants to trade Harden then I would be very suspicious. Something must be wrong with the guy. We already know he is hurting now and has a long history of injuries.

A healthy Harden would be a great pitcher to have in our rotation, which is exactly why we would have to sell the farm to get him. Beane won't ask for Dunn. He will want Homer Bailey. If I were 100&#37; positive that Harden were healthy I would trade Bailey for him. Harden is a proven stud, Bailey is a hopeful maybe.

Ravenlord
05-02-2007, 04:32 AM
Dunn's career numbers show he hits a lot of solo HRs -

Dunn's career vs. MLB
Player Solo 2/3-run GS
Dunn 59.3 38..2 2.5
All 56.2 41.9 1.9

Topcat
05-02-2007, 04:55 AM
I would be very hesitant to make a go after Harden. I think it is dangerous for our inexperienced General Manager (with a history of getting ripped off in trades) to negotiate with the master -- Billy Beane. Beane has a history of building very good teams in spite of small payrolls. He didn't accomplish that by trading away good players. If Beane wants to trade Harden then I would be very suspicious. Something must be wrong with the guy. We already know he is hurting now and has a long history of injuries.

A healthy Harden would be a great pitcher to have in our rotation, which is exactly why we would have to sell the farm to get him. Beane won't ask for Dunn. He will want Homer Bailey. If I were 100% positive that Harden were healthy I would trade Bailey for him. Harden is a proven stud, Bailey is a hopeful maybe.


If harden was a healthy ask yourself this to. How close is he to the arbitration clock and are the reds not the same kind of team as the A's salary wise? Sorry but the Reds trading Bailey time has passed it is a gamble they must take just for the mere fact he will at worst be a top 3 serviceable starter on the cheap side.

Highlifeman21
05-02-2007, 08:15 AM
umm... Rich Harden shouldn't start anymore. He should be a closer or something because of his arm problems. Travis Wood anyone?

Wood, Cueto and make up the difference for Harden.

If Beane's blowing it up in the Bay Area, then Wayne needs to get back on the phone.

klw
05-02-2007, 10:11 AM
To summarize:

Rich Harden isn't going to Cincy (or Boston for that matter--see Lester, Jon)
Adam Dunn isn't going to Oakland
Sean Casey isn't coming back to Cincy
Adam Dunn K's alot
Sean Casey grounds out alot
Rich Harden is hurt much of the time
They all make way too much money

And Billy Beane would be dumb to trade Harden for Rod Carew

REDREAD
05-02-2007, 11:01 AM
If I'm Beane, I'd offer Harden and Mark Kotsay to the Reds for Dunn and Belisle.

The only problem with that from the A's perspective is Dunn's contract.. I guess they could negotiate a new deal though to extend them.

If I'm the Reds, I'm not sure I accept that deal though. I don't know enough to know if Belisle is finally healthy or a ticking timebomb (like many Reds pitchers, just temporarily healthy). Sure, I don't expect Belisle to maintain his current production, but he still looks to be a darn useful piece on this team.

If we had more offense, Dunn for Harden makes a lot of sense. But this team can not trade Dunn without getting more bats (unless they decide to do a complete rebuild, which I doubt).

REDREAD
05-02-2007, 11:07 AM
Over the past decade, if there's one thing I've learned it's that NO ONE is more willing to break type and run against his supposed grain than Billy Beane. Far as I can tell, the only question he ever asks himself is "will this help my team?" If the answer is yes, then I'd expect he'd figure out a way to make the money work. Plus, the deal I mentioned is close to even money and Dunn's 2008 team option disappears if he's traded. Meanwhile, Kotsay costs roughly $10M in 2008.


Just look at the Kendall contract. I think that trade was ill advised, but it proves the A's are willing to take on a big salary if they think it will help them win. Heck, Piazza was a pretty big FA signing, at around 8.5 million (I thin).
Kotsay is another big one.

I don't think Dunn's salary would be the problem. Negotating an extension with Dunn might be a stumbling block.

I still probably don't do Dunn-Harden, because of Harden's injury risk and the fact that we'd have zero offense without Dunn. I know starting pitching is important, but you can't have zero offense

Strikes Out Looking
05-02-2007, 11:35 AM
And Billy Beane would be dumb to trade Harden for Rod Carew

Especially in 2007. I'm guessing Carew's bat speed is down.

Sea Ray
05-02-2007, 11:58 AM
Over the past decade, if there's one thing I've learned it's that NO ONE is more willing to break type and run against his supposed grain than Billy Beane. Far as I can tell, the only question he ever asks himself is "will this help my team?" If the answer is yes, then I'd expect he'd figure out a way to make the money work. Plus, the deal I mentioned is close to even money and Dunn's 2008 team option disappears if he's traded. Meanwhile, Kotsay costs roughly $10M in 2008.


If his option disappears then there is really no way Beane makes that deal. In that case he's trading a young ace for a rent a player. Again Beane shows nothing in his past that he'd do this sort of deal. If he decides to trade Harden it'll be for Homer Bailey plus others. He's not going to trade him just so he can jettison Kotsay's salary.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
05-02-2007, 12:05 PM
Is that a reflection on his hitting ability? Or is that a reflection of the ability of batters high in the order to get on base?

The answer is the latter.
You have to add in the fact that a pitcher is going to approach Dunn much differently without runners on base. With the bases clear I would guess that stats would show him getting alot of offspeed pitches and fastballs off of the plate. With nobody on pitchers would rather challenge him than put him on by nibbling the strike zone to cut down on the big inning factor walking hitters can lead to.

M2
05-02-2007, 12:37 PM
If his option disappears then there is really no way Beane makes that deal. In that case he's trading a young ace for a rent a player. Again Beane shows nothing in his past that he'd do this sort of deal. If he decides to trade Harden it'll be for Homer Bailey plus others. He's not going to trade him just so he can jettison Kotsay's salary.

You're not thinking it through. Beane could A) try to lock up Dunn far below what his bat would cost if he hit the open market or B) he'd have a pile of cash freed up as he heads into the offseason. He either gains a player he wants or he frees up the space occupied by Kotsay (whom he'd probably love to lose) to go shopping for new players. He'd also get to keep Belisle.

If he'd trade Harden, as many have wisely pointed out, it's only because he's lost confidence in the kid's ability to stay healthy. So would you trade a fragile pitcher and an expensive player you don't want for an expensive player you do want, a sturdier pitcher, a better chance at winning this season and greater flexibility in the offseason? I would.

I was proposing that deal from Beane's perspective. It's the Reds that, IMO, get the short end of the stick in that one. The reason why I pitched it that way was to gauge the limits of what Reds fans would do.

WMR
05-02-2007, 01:09 PM
That's cool. I figured since we were both IU guys we'd blame WilyMo, but if you want to sell out your fellow Hoosier than that's fine too.


Hence the smiley. I've already secretly blamed WilyMo. ;)


Sorry.

westofyou
05-02-2007, 01:11 PM
Umm.. tasteless photo much?

pedro
05-02-2007, 01:11 PM
wilymorocks,

i know your intentions aren't bad on this one but that picture is highly offensive.

westofyou
05-02-2007, 01:11 PM
Raised in the same home... same reaction crazy eh?

BRM
05-02-2007, 01:14 PM
It's all good WilyMo. I know you mean well.

It's just the Kentucky education coming back on you. :p:

Sea Ray
05-02-2007, 05:06 PM
You're not thinking it through...

Yes, I've considered all that and I still disagree. I think he's looking for young, cheap talent and by that I mean more than Belisle.

M2
05-02-2007, 05:25 PM
Yes, I've considered all that and I still disagree. I think he's looking for young, cheap talent and by that I mean more than Belisle.

Beane's openly stated that what he does in the early season is assess his team's weaknesses and load up for the second half of the year. I think you've got a poor understanding of his M.O. Beane's club leads the A.L. in ERA and in OPS against. Meanwhile it's 12th in scoring and last OPS. That man's going to be shopping for big bats.

Sea Ray
05-02-2007, 06:30 PM
Beane's openly stated that what he does in the early season is assess his team's weaknesses and load up for the second half of the year. I think you've got a poor understanding of his M.O. Beane's club leads the A.L. in ERA and in OPS against. Meanwhile it's 12th in scoring and last OPS. That man's going to be shopping for big bats.


The article suggests just the opposite.


Word out of Oakland is Beane is considering a roster rebuild if the A's don't look like contenders approaching the trading deadline

A roster rebuild does not include potential free agents like Adam Dunn. A roster rebuild would consist of acquiring young, cheap talent. If he were gearing up for a 2007 pennant run, I'd agree with you but that doesn't seem like the case in here.

M2
05-02-2007, 07:38 PM
The article suggests just the opposite.

Didn't realize Beane wrote the article in the first person. I was working under the assumption Beane would be assessing what parts of team were and weren't working. Silly me.


A roster rebuild does not include potential free agents like Adam Dunn. A roster rebuild would consist of acquiring young, cheap talent. If he were gearing up for a 2007 pennant run, I'd agree with you but that doesn't seem like the case in here.

The A's do look like contenders. The team is currently at .500 in a division that's there for the taking. Add a big bat to the pitching and defense (and Shannon Stewart so needs to ride some pine) and you've got yourself a club that can take the AL West.

Sea Ray
05-02-2007, 08:02 PM
The A's do look like contenders. The team is currently at .500 in a division that's there for the taking. Add a big bat to the pitching and defense (and Shannon Stewart so needs to ride some pine) and you've got yourself a club that can take the AL West.

We're working from different assumptions. If the A's are in it then I'd say he'll hang onto Harden and let him pitch them into the post season.


Didn't realize Beane wrote the article in the first person.

Who cares if Beane wrote the article? This whole thread is based on that article. It is what it is and that's why I based my comments on it.

If you want to change the premise to the A's contending this year then that changes everything; possibly even whether Harden will be made available.

M2
05-02-2007, 08:08 PM
Who cares if Beane wrote the article? This whole thread is based on that article. It is what it is and that's why I based my comments on it.

If you want to change the premise to the A's contending this year then that changes everything; possibly even whether Harden will be made available.

The premise as I took it was that Beane might be willing to shop Harden not that some hack thought Beane might be trying to rebuild for next year. That first part is based on some supposed information that Beane had brought up Harden's name to another team. The second part is flimsy hypothesis. I latched on the supposed information and ignored the flimsy hypothesis choosing instead to look at what the A's might do based on their actual situation.

Razor Shines
05-02-2007, 08:43 PM
Sorry.

I wish I'd have seen it.