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View Full Version : Good thing we finished April 12-13, eh?



RedEye
05-02-2007, 12:26 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2855072&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

I know one month is a small sample size, but Jayson Stark raises some interesting points here...


We looked at every full season since 1982. Here's what we found:

• Of the 144 teams that made it to the postseason in that span, only eight (or 5.6 percent) came out of April more than three games under .500. Clubs that need to worry most about that history lesson: the Yankees (9-14), Astros (10-14), Cardinals (10-14), Cubs (10-14) and Rangers (10-15).

• Just six of those 144 playoff teams (or 4.2 percent) found themselves more than 4½ games out of a playoff spot after April. Clubs that ought to get nervous about that trend: the Cubs, Cardinals and Astros (all five games out).

• And you wouldn't think the standings would mean much this time of year. But more than half of the 120 teams that found themselves in first place after April (66 of 120) wound up finishing first. And 98 of the 120 (81.7 percent) of the teams that finished the season in first place either led their division or were within 2½ games of the lead at the end of April.

coachw513
05-02-2007, 12:29 PM
I found the numbers striking...it's an interesting "line in the sand" so to speak...bet Steinbrenner was thrilled to see the news :D

Johnny Footstool
05-02-2007, 01:38 PM
This kind of blows away the theory that "April doesn't matter". It does matter, to a degree.

Redsland
05-02-2007, 01:40 PM
They all matter the same, says 1999.

KronoRed
05-02-2007, 01:42 PM
the Cubs, Cardinals and Astros already done?

Woohoo! :D

LincolnparkRed
05-02-2007, 02:47 PM
And 98 of the 120 (81.7 percent) of the teams that finished the season in first place either led their division or were within 2½ games of the lead at the end of April.

We unfortunately were part of the 18.3 percent last year, 3.5 games out after leading the division in April.

Heath
05-02-2007, 02:58 PM
The Milwaukee Brewers. 2007 National League Central Division Champions.

Heath
05-02-2007, 02:59 PM
They all matter the same, says 1999.

..and 1975...

Chip R
05-02-2007, 03:08 PM
I think looking at it since 1982 is flawed. Shouldn't he be looking at it from when they initiated the wild card and/or went to 3 divisions? I don't know if it would make much of a difference but you have more of a shot at the playoffs with 2 wild cards and 2 more divisions.

macro
05-02-2007, 03:28 PM
I think looking at it since 1982 is flawed. Shouldn't he be looking at it from when they initiated the wild card and/or went to 3 divisions? I don't know if it would make much of a difference but you have more of a shot at the playoffs with 2 wild cards and 2 more divisions.

Excellent point! Mixing the two eras kinda skews the results.

macro
05-02-2007, 03:30 PM
We unfortunately were part of the 18.3 percent last year, 3.5 games out after leading the division in April.

No, notice that it says "of the 120 teams that finished the season in first place". The Reds didn't finish the season in first place.

LincolnparkRed
05-02-2007, 03:59 PM
No, notice that it says "of the 120 teams that finished the season in first place". The Reds didn't finish the season in first place.

Well if reading is fundamental cosider me the Dusty Baker of redzoners

Marc D
05-02-2007, 05:48 PM
Well if reading is fundamental cosider me the Dusty Baker of redzoners


You wear wristbands when you read?

Ltlabner
05-02-2007, 06:00 PM
Wow. That was a short season. Guess we can all go home now.

Johnny Footstool
05-02-2007, 07:26 PM
Wow. That was a short season. Guess we can all go home now.

The point is that you can't toss away wins in April and expect to make them up later. Teams that end up in the playoffs tend to play decent ball in April as well as over the course of the season.