PDA

View Full Version : Should we trade or re-sign Adam Dunn?



AmarilloRed
05-05-2007, 04:21 PM
Adam Dunn is in the last year of his contract. After this year, he will become a free agent at the end of the year. We all know Adam Dunns history. He will walk a lot,strike out a lot, hit a lot of homers, and give you 90-100 rbis. This year he seems to have improved as a player, at least short-term. He is hitting the other way, hitting for average , and even stealing bases:eek: . My very long point is-should we try and re-sign him-to a short deal or a long one; or should we see what we can get for him at the trading deadline. His salary is around 12 million and will only go up from there. I would sign him to a short -term deal until we see if he has truly improved as a hitter. If we cant re-sign him, lets see what we can get for him at the trading deadline.:dunn:

dougdirt
05-05-2007, 04:26 PM
Personally, I wouldd trade him. Not because I dont like him, but because we cant afford to pay him what he will be asking. Adam Dunn is going to get a 4 or 5 year deal in the 14 million a year range on the open market. The Reds simply cant afford to pay him that with the defense he plays. I like Dunn and what he does, strikeouts or not.... but he will no longer be worth the money. It sucks that we have no one to replace him in the line up really, but I wouldnt overpay for multiple years because of that.

reds44
05-05-2007, 04:27 PM
There are alot of variables like A. what he is asking and B. what we can get for him in the trade market.

With all things being equal, I would lean toward what Doug said, and trade him.

Aronchis
05-05-2007, 04:29 PM
I think it depends if you believe the Killer B's(Bailey/Bruce) prophecy or not. If you do, you better get Dunn resigned because the Reds may be ready to compete as early as next year, though maybe more like 2009. That isn't that long. Dunn should be at his top.

peterose00
05-05-2007, 04:34 PM
I think if you move Dunn, similar to what made Kearns available in trade, you have the chance to drastically leap toward the improvement of the club that is consistent with Krivsky's clear vision. I think it is safe to say he would prefer better defense and speed. While he doesn't have another Adam Dunn in the system (power and OBP) -- he has people who are cheaper who bring many more aspects to the table that Dunn will never have (and that Krivsky cherishes).

Highlifeman21
05-05-2007, 04:34 PM
:bang: :bang: :bang:
:bash: :bash: :bash:

Make threads like these stop.

Fil3232
05-05-2007, 04:34 PM
I think it depends if you believe the Killer B's(Bailey/Bruce) prophecy or not. If you do, you better get Dunn resigned because the Reds may be ready to compete as early as next year, though maybe more like 2009. That isn't that long. Dunn should be at his top.

Good points Aronchis. Adam Dunn is a very valuable piece for a team wanting to contend. Obviously the salary would have to work, but there is quite a bit of money coming off the table in the next few years.

KronoRed
05-05-2007, 04:34 PM
Dunn is only a FA after this year if the Reds choose to not pick up his option.

dougdirt
05-05-2007, 04:37 PM
Dunn is only a FA after this year if the Reds choose to not pick up his option.

Very true.... but is Adam Dunn worth 13 million dollars? I am not so sure he is. I think where we are in June is going to really be a big factor in whether or not he stays a Red. If Krivsky sees us as not competing in 2007, but as being able to compete in 2008 with a few minor upgrades, I bet we see Adam Dunn wearing another uniform in August 2007 and some major league ready guys back in Cincinnati.

savafan
05-05-2007, 04:40 PM
Very true.... but is Adam Dunn worth 13 million dollars?

At least that...especially in the current MLB market.

HBP
05-05-2007, 04:40 PM
Dunn makes $10.5 million this year with an option $13 million for 2008. Trading him will only be an option if the Reds are way out of it close to the trade deadline.

redsfanmia
05-05-2007, 04:47 PM
At least that...especially in the current MLB market.

I just cant see it, If the Reds dont pick up his option I dont think he sniffs 10 million a year.

Wheelhouse
05-05-2007, 04:49 PM
I'd try to trade Griffey first who only has one year left on his contract after this, and if he's healthy, will have value at the trading deadline. Will he accept a trade? If the Reds are not contenders, I can't see why he wouldn't. He has a limited number of shots left to get a ring, and he is at the point where his next injury could be career-ending. I'd pick up Dunn's option--he's a player on the upcurve.

Highlifeman21
05-05-2007, 04:49 PM
If the Reds don't pick up his option, that'll be the move to make everyone forget about the Kearns/Lopez trade.

Instead, we'll be talking about how stupid the Reds are/were for not picking up his option.

AmarilloRed
05-05-2007, 04:54 PM
I was unaware he still had an option;I thought this was his last year.:fineprint

AdamDunn
05-05-2007, 04:54 PM
At least that...especially in the current MLB market.

Exactly. Griffey is gone after this year. Hamilton will replace him at center. Freel will be in right. I say we pick up the option because $13 million isn't that much in this market. If we make some smart moves this offseason, we COULD contend next year. Bailey will be up. Keeping Dunn will allow us to trade him at the deadline NEXT YEAR if we aren't in contention, and keep him if we are. Worst case scenerio is he holds the place for Jay Bruce. Best case, he helps us contend for the playoffs. All at market price.

Degenerate39
05-05-2007, 05:08 PM
Resign

peterose00
05-05-2007, 05:19 PM
Mock this all you want -- but I keep hearing Krivsky and Narron playing the game the right way. I think they have a vision of what they want to see on the field that includes better defense and better hustle and more athleticism and better at bats than what Dunn brings to the tabel.

You might not even agree with that personally, but I believe it is true in Krivsky and NArron's minds. And their minds are what counts.

Dunn has amazing power and is at maybe even below market price right now -- but he cannot and will not ever do what I think the top management of this club wants to see.

I think they'll shop him if they aren't already.

HBP
05-05-2007, 05:20 PM
I just cant see it, If the Reds dont pick up his option I dont think he sniffs 10 million a year.

I think he could easily...especially for an AL team that would probably make him a LF, DH, 1B combo position player.

jmac
05-05-2007, 05:40 PM
:bang: :bang: :bang:
:bash: :bash: :bash:

Make threads like these stop.
I think with the option coming up...this is question the Reds need to be thinking of.
Everyone thought Harang and BA would get x amount on the open market but they got signed to longer deal at better rate.
Myself I would see if Dunner would be interested in this as well.

mth123
05-05-2007, 07:40 PM
There is no way you will get a player to play in Cincinnati that can provide Dunn's offense for anything less than $15 to $16 Million per year. If he can really be signed at $14 Million, you lock him up until he's 32 or so. That money equates to basically what He, Jason Larue and Paul Wilson combine to make this year. I really don't see how Dunn at $14 Million impacts the budget at all given how that money is being spent this year and how it would need to be spent to replace him.

I'd go straight to the LTC and not even fool with the option.

oneupper
05-05-2007, 08:03 PM
The REDS might pick up Dunn's 2008 option, but my guess it that they'll try to extend him first. They might be working on that even this year.

If they can't extend him, they'll trade him in the offseason. It just doesn't make sense to pick up his option if you know you're going to have to trade him at the deadline to get something back, particularly if you have any hope of contending. (But...hey..the Red Sox dealt Nomar...).

tbball10
05-05-2007, 08:05 PM
trade him

fearofpopvol1
05-05-2007, 09:00 PM
If I were the Reds, I would for sure be listening to offers. I think Dunn could land a #1 prospect from an organization (pitching or position) at the AAA level. Obviously, prospects are unproven but it's still intriguing.

I think I would wait at this juncture though ultimately unless you get a can't refuse sort of deal. You can wait as the deadline approaches or pickup the option for next year and see what happens. As I said though, I'd for sure listen to offers as I think 14 million a year for 4+ more years given our salary restrictions is dangerous territory (in my opinion).

wheels
05-05-2007, 09:51 PM
There is no way you will get a player to play in Cincinnati that can provide Dunn's offense for anything less than $15 to $16 Million per year. If he can really be signed at $14 Million, you lock him up until he's 32 or so. That money equates to basically what He, Jason Larue and Paul Wilson combine to make this year. I really don't see how Dunn at $14 Million impacts the budget at all given how that money is being spent this year and how it would need to be spent to replace him.

I'd go straight to the LTC and not even fool with the option.

That's an excellent way of looking at it.

George Anderson
05-05-2007, 10:27 PM
Dangle him out in the open market to see what he is worth. I dont think anyone on the team is untradeable and its simply good business to at least shop him and see what you can get.

Mitri
05-05-2007, 10:41 PM
I want a huge return for Adam Dunn. Huge. An MLB ready power bat and MLB ready relief, maybe some prospects too.
If nobody bites that hard, sign him to an LTC and give Marty a heart-attack.

dougdirt
05-05-2007, 10:59 PM
What is Adam Dunn truly worth? Is a guy who hits HRs and walks and does very little else worth 14 million a year for 5 years? That is a lot of money to throw at a guy in a small market who does few things well and lots of things not so well..... especially when you consider what this management preaches about pitching and defense and making contact.... and Adam Dunn cant play defense or make contact. I just can't see how this team will sign him past this current contract, and if they are going to not resign him, then they need to trade him.
Am I missing something here?

realistic
05-05-2007, 11:33 PM
Trade - and then sit back and watch the billions of post here about how we should have been able to get the Cuban national team for him since he walks on water.

Dracodave
05-05-2007, 11:59 PM
What is Adam Dunn truly worth? Is a guy who hits HRs and walks and does very little else worth 14 million a year for 5 years? That is a lot of money to throw at a guy in a small market who does few things well and lots of things not so well..... especially when you consider what this management preaches about pitching and defense and making contact.... and Adam Dunn cant play defense or make contact. I just can't see how this team will sign him past this current contract, and if they are going to not resign him, then they need to trade him.
Am I missing something here?

Just use this method of what he's worth.

Needs-
Young starter
Power bullpen arm
MLB Ready Bat in Left Field/Right field.

You ask teams for that. You say "We need that starter to be atleast 3rd starter quality, the bullpen arm to be atleast decent and the bat to be ready.." then you go from there. Who puts up the best package, gets your player.
You work with what you need, then settle for what you can get.

With Dunn, his bat helps out the Angels ALOT..Santana might not be a far strech..add in a few other..

RedsMan3203
05-06-2007, 01:21 AM
You trade Dunn - You BETTER get a return like the Brewers got for Sexson. No ifs, ands or buts about it. If I remember correctly, it was something like 6 Major League Ready Players.

If not... You have Milton (this year) and JR (2009?) coming off the books. They'll have enough resouces to sign this guy LT, without hurting the payroll.

BUT - Once again, when are Bruce and Stubbs goign to be ready for ML?

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 02:15 AM
It is a no-brainer... You spend however much money it takes to keep Adam Dunn on the Reds. I am sick of the excuses. If you want to own and operate a major league baseball team you simply have to pay out the money to keep your best player. Period. End of story.

What kind of message would it send to Reds fans if they are too cheap to sign Dunn? If you need to keep the payroll down, you still have to keep your best player and cut corners elsewhere. This isn't the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Reds draw 2,000,000+ fans every year so there is plenty of money coming in to have at least an 80 million dollar payroll.

I think we as Reds fans have gotten so accustomed to the idea of the Reds as hopelessly screwed financially that we don't even contemplate the idea of the Reds actually spending any money. While the Reds can't hope to spend like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, Cincinnati is not a teeny-weeny miniscule city incapable of supporting a professional franchise. I think if the timing is right then the Reds will spend some money. By timing I mean if we have most of the pieces in place via smart trades and good home-grown talent then I think Castellini will allow Krivsky to make one or two big free agent signings to put us over the top. Have some faith!

Griffey's and Milton's salaries will disappear soon so that will clear up plenty of money to sign Dunn. Hopefully Castellini will put up more money to actually make the Reds into suitors for premium free agent talent this offseason. There is no reason he can't do it. We shouldn't necessarily pin the Schott/Lindner cheapskate label on Castellini unless he actually earns it. I still have hope he will be a more proactive owner that wants to win the World Series instead of merely owning the team as an investment.

And before anybody tries to say Adam Dunn is not the Reds best player you'd better try to show us who is better. Nobody else on the Reds puts runs on the board better than Dunn -- not even close.

Last year Adam Dunn was responsible for putting 191 runs + RBI on the board, the next best player was Brandon Phillips with only 140. That is a huge difference -- and everyone else was even lower. Dunn in the last 3 years has produced 207, 208 and 191 runs + RBI. Without Adam Dunn this team would be truly pathetic offensively.

Where else can you get 190+ runs worth of production on the market? How much would that type of free agent cost us? At least $15 million per year. If you want to have good players on this team then you have to pay them a market wage. I agree that player salaries are absurd, but we can't just bury our heads in the sand and pretend otherwise. $13 million for a guy that produces 200 runs + RBI is less than the going rate on the market.

Even though Dunn strikes out often and has a low batting average it doesn't matter one tiny bit. He puts runs on the scoreboard and that is all that matters. Making contact and getting basehits is not the goal of the game. The goal of the game is to produce runs. Dunn produces runs far better than any other Red. It doesn't matter how you produce the runs. You can hit .350 or hit 50 homers or steal 100 bases -- just as long as you put runs on the scoreboard. Adam Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard by walking often (high OB%) and hitting for power. We must either keep him or trade him for another proven big-time run producer.

There are plenty of players on other teams that produce 200 runs or more, but they are either unavailable or making very high salaries. There are players that aren't as good as Dunn that make more money than he does. Dunn is a very nice bargain at $10 million, a good deal at $13 million and a fair deal at $15 million.

Dunn is young, he doesn't get hurt, he doesn't whine or complain, and he puts runs on the scoreboard. He is a keeper.

Doro
05-06-2007, 02:20 AM
It is a no-brainer... You spend however much money it takes to keep Adam Dunn on the Reds. I am sick of the excuses. If you want to own and operate a major league baseball team you simply have to pay out the money to keep your best player. Period. End of story.

What kind of message would it send to Reds fans if they are too cheap to sign Dunn? If you need to keep the payroll down, you still have to keep your best player and cut corners elsewhere. This isn't the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Reds draw 2,000,000+ fans every year so there is plenty of money coming in to have at least an 80 million dollar payroll.

I think we as Reds fans have gotten so accustomed to the idea of the Reds as hopelessly screwed financially that we don't even contemplate the idea of the Reds actually spending any money. While the Reds can't hope to spend like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, Cincinnati is not a teeny-weeny miniscule city incapable of supporting a professional franchise. I think if the timing is right then the Reds will spend some money. By timing I mean if we have most of the pieces in place via smart trades and good home-grown talent then I think Castellini will allow Krivsky to make one or two big free agent signings to put us over the top. Have some faith!

Griffey's and Milton's salaries will disappear soon so that will clear up plenty of money to sign Dunn. Hopefully Castellini will put up more money to actually make the Reds into suitors for premium free agent talent this offseason. There is no reason he can't do it. We shouldn't necessarily pin the Schott/Lindner cheapskate label on Castellini unless he actually earns it. I still have hope he will be a more proactive owner that wants to win the World Series instead of merely owning the team as an investment.

And before anybody tries to say Adam Dunn is not the Reds best player you'd better try to show us who is better. Nobody else on the Reds puts runs on the board better than Dunn -- not even close.

Last year Adam Dunn was responsible for putting 191 runs + RBI on the board, the next best player was Brandon Phillips with only 140. That is a huge difference -- and everyone else was even lower. Dunn in the last 3 years has produced 207, 208 and 191 runs + RBI. Without Adam Dunn this team would be truly pathetic offensively.

Where else can you get 190+ runs worth of production on the market? How much would that type of free agent cost us? At least $15 million per year. If you want to have good players on this team then you have to pay them a market wage. I agree that player salaries are absurd, but we can't just bury our heads in the sand and pretend otherwise. $13 million for a guy that produces 200 runs + RBI is less than the going rate on the market.

Even though Dunn strikes out often and has a low batting average it doesn't matter one tiny bit. He puts runs on the scoreboard and that is all that matters. Making contact and getting basehits is not the goal of the game. The goal of the game is to produce runs. Dunn produces runs far better than any other Red. It doesn't matter how you produce the runs. You can hit .350 or hit 50 homers or steal 100 bases -- just as long as you put runs on the scoreboard. Adam Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard by walking often (high OB%) and hitting for power. We must either keep him or trade him for another proven big-time run producer.

There are plenty of players on other teams that produce 200 runs or more, but they are either unavailable or making very high salaries. There are players that aren't as good as Dunn that make more money than he does. Dunn is a very nice bargain at $10 million, a good deal at $13 million and a fair deal at $15 million.

Dunn is young, he doesn't get hurt, he doesn't whine or complain, and he puts runs on the scoreboard. He is a keeper.

I cant agree anymore! People often overlook the most important offensive stats Runs and RBIs.

AmarilloRed
05-06-2007, 02:28 AM
It looks like I stirred up a hornets nest. I would like to see us pick up his option; I was unaware we still had one. See how he does playing this year,and then try to extend his contract a couple of years if we can. I cant see the reds not picking up his option. The point of no return will come next year when we have to choose between resigning him in his option year,and/or work on a trade that will be good for us. I would like to see us resign Dunn if it doesnt break the bank.:dunn:

Marge'sMullet
05-06-2007, 02:44 AM
Even though I've bashed Dunn on here, I would still pick up his option. 13 million for 1 year for a guy that will hit 40+ HR, 100+ RBI. I only keep him for one year and then trade him at the deadline in 08, and hopfully move Bruce into the OF in 2nd half of 08.

I would love for the REDS to trade Griffey this year though. His bat is hot right now which is great and rising his value, but when's the "injury" coming? So you try and trade him in June or July 07.

REDS needs:
bull pen
sp
right handed run producer.
catcher

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 02:45 AM
Don't get me wrong, I don't have some sort of man-crush on Adam Dunn. No player is untouchable if the right trade offer comes along. But in my opinion we should not even consider trading our best player for a #3 starting pitcher nor a shutdown closer, nor some team's best super-prospect. If you trade Adam Dunn you should receive the other team's best player in return. It is as simple as that. Dunn is the kind of guy you want your super-prospect to become. Don't trade a proven stud for a maybe-might-be-someday-proven guy.

And don't let your best player walk just because you are too cheap to pay him. That is the worst possible course of action. The Reds won't do that I am sure.

I also think we need to change our mindset regarding the team's payroll. We don't have to willingly accept the status quo of being a "small-market team". That is just rationalizing an unacceptable state of affairs. Castellini needs to be a fierce competitor just like the players. He represents this city now. He need to want to win, not just be the owner. If he wants to be a simple caretaker like Lindner was then I would prefer he sell the team to someone else. Fortunately I think Castellini is a competitor and he will do what it takes when the time is right. I will continue to believe that until he proves otherwise.

Marge'sMullet
05-06-2007, 02:50 AM
Don't get me wrong, I don't have some sort of man-crush on Adam Dunn. No player is untouchable if the right trade offer comes along. But in my opinion we should not even consider trading our best player for a #3 starting pitcher nor a shutdown closer, nor some team's best super-prospect. If you trade Adam Dunn you should receive the other team's best player in return. It is as simple as that. Dunn is the kind of guy you want your super-prospect to become. Don't trade a proven stud for a maybe-might-be-someday-proven guy.

And don't let your best player walk just because you are too cheap to pay him. That is the worst possible course of action. The Reds won't do that I am sure.

I also think we need to change our mindset regarding the team's payroll. We don't have to willingly accept the status quo of being a "small-market team". That is just rationalizing an unacceptable state of affairs. Castellini needs to be a fierce competitor just like the players. He represents this city now. He need to want to win, not just be the owner. If he wants to be a simple caretaker like Lindner was then I would prefer he sell the team to someone else. Fortunately I think Castellini is a competitor and he will do what it takes when the time is right. I will continue to believe that until he proves otherwise.

Josh Hamilton is the REDS best player.

Think all around player not just HR loving.

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 02:53 AM
Josh Hamilton is not the Reds best player.

Marge'sMullet
05-06-2007, 02:56 AM
Josh Hamilton is not the Reds best player.

IMO, I think he is. He can do more all around than anyone on this team. Not saying he's the best in every catagory but all he's the best.

Doug, who is in your opinion?

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 03:04 AM
I am as excited as anybody over Josh Hamilton. I think he can definitely be a perennial All-Star player but let's not get carried away here. Dunn is still the best hitter the Reds have by a comfortable margin.

Adam Dunn has produced 200+ runs + RBI each year for three years and counting and is on pace to exceed that number this year as well. Hamilton has never done it -- not even in the minors. So I think it is a bit early to anoint Hamilton our best player. Maybe someday I hope.

Until somebody can produce more runs on the scoreboard than he does, Adam Dunn will still be our best player. Last season Dunn led the team in runs scored (nope it wasn't Freel), RBI, home runs and walks. His OBP was second on the team. That means everyone except Hatteberg made outs more often than Adam Dunn. Dunn got on base without making an out more often than Freel, Phillips, Aurilia, Griffey, Encarnacion, Ross and everyone else except Hatteberg. That is why produces so many runs -- he doesn't make outs very often.

This year is more of the same so far. Dunn leads the team as always with 39 runs + RBI. Phillips is second with 33. Hamilton and Griffey have 27, which is good too.

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 03:06 AM
Well if we are going to say best hitter, its Ken Griffey Jr hands down.

I like Hamilton and all, but I can't annoint a guy the best player on the team because he has had a successful 70 at bats in the major leagues. Cant and wont do it.

Number_Fourteen
05-06-2007, 03:11 AM
I'm an avid reader of Redszone, and while I rarely post topics or replies, the repetitiousness of this "trade Dunn now, he strikes out too much" garbage is ridiculous. While I may add little to the Redszone community, I must state as a reader, this topic needs a sticky entitled "Trade Dunn Now!" so that the delusional few who believe Dunn is not a solid run producer and asset to the Reds can remain there to bash and rant over what Dunn could or should be.

Sorry for my own rant, but seeing one negative thread topic after another day after day on Dunnís play and perceived bad attitude and it gets old quick. Moreover, the "Dunn sucks" thread hijackers rarely seem capable of restraining themselves either. Move on with it, accept Dunn for the really good ballplayer that he is, and start a fresh topic about something new and interesting. Thank you.

RedsMan3203
05-06-2007, 03:20 AM
Hey - we all love what Hambone is doing....

And we've all heard about what he was projected to do.... Yes, we've seen some of it... But none of us know if it will continue or not. Don't jump the gun on the kid... Just let him play the game.

So calling him the best player on the team is just jumping the gun a bit....

Marge'sMullet
05-06-2007, 03:23 AM
I am as excited as anybody over Josh Hamilton. I think he can definitely be a perennial All-Star player but let's not get carried away here. Dunn is still the best hitter the Reds have by a comfortable margin.

This isn't Dunn bashing.

Hitting is only one part of it. What about defense and baserunning and arm? This is why I pick Hamilton because of his all around ability.

He's only going to get better too.

RedsMan3203
05-06-2007, 03:24 AM
This isn't Dunn bashing.

Hitting is only one part of it. What about defense and baserunning and arm? This is why I pick Hamilton because of his all around ability.

He's only going to get better too.

We all know Dunn can be an adventure in LF - but he has made some plays in recent memory thats made me go "Holy S" Its improving... He is improving... He isn't KILLIN us by any means.

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 03:42 AM
This isn't Dunn bashing.

Hitting is only one part of it. What about defense and baserunning and arm? This is why I pick Hamilton because of his all around ability.

He's only going to get better too.

I agree that Hamilton is a better fielder, but it takes an awful lot of superb defensive plays to offset 200+ runs produced at the plate.

Anyway, we are nitpicking over a minor point of the thread. The point is whether we should re-sign Dunn, trade him, or let him walk. Dunn is too good to just let him go. His value to the Reds is definitely worth at least $15 million per year for the next 4-5 years. The Reds would be totally punchless at the plate without Dunn. Can we agree on that?

RedsMan3203
05-06-2007, 03:48 AM
7yrs/90 million anyone? ;)

mth123
05-06-2007, 05:19 AM
What is Adam Dunn truly worth? Is a guy who hits HRs and walks and does very little else worth 14 million a year for 5 years? That is a lot of money to throw at a guy in a small market who does few things well and lots of things not so well..... especially when you consider what this management preaches about pitching and defense and making contact.... and Adam Dunn cant play defense or make contact. I just can't see how this team will sign him past this current contract, and if they are going to not resign him, then they need to trade him.
Am I missing something here?

Dunn is the main source of run production day in and day out in spite of his problems. While I agree that Griffey is still a dangerous hitter, he's 38 and likely to be gone after his current contract. Jay Bruce looks like a stud in the making, but he's still only in A+ right now and looks to be Griffey's replacement. Joey Votto should slide in at 1B and Valaika and Francicso should be a year or two away by 2009.

The team will still be in need of an offensive centerpiece and defense in LF is probably less important than anywhere on the field. A good CF (Hamilton) who can cheat toward left center a little with a good rangey RF (Bruce) really makes Dunn's (or that of any other offensive power source who'd stand in LF) defense more of a nuisance than a problem. There really aren't many defensive studs who play LF and provide offense anyway. When Griffey is gone, I just don't see how this team can compete without a huge offensive threat in LF. Any threat acquired is likely to be a similar defensive problem and cost just as much (and that assumes one can be found who is available and can be convinced to play in Cincinnati). The team will languish at the bottom of the league in offensive production without a major power source in LF.

As far as pitching and defense go, having major offensive threats at 1B and LF (where defense is less important) is exactly what allows a team to go with defense first players at the more important spots like SS, 2B and CF.

I KNOW A LOT
05-06-2007, 05:59 AM
If Hammer did not go off the deep end he would have 200 homeruns, 800-1000 RBI's and 500 runs scored along with 100 SB's in his career. Do you realize the difference between A ball pitching and big league pitching-(less Reds bullpen) LOL ? Its like real estate investments....location, location, location....oh, and command of all weapons that can be thrown at any count....For him to be doing what he is doing at this level is stupid. If he can keep a 1:1 ratio of BB/K's, drive in 80 and hit 25 dingers with an obp of .380-.400 and hose people from the track...I say GREAT.....Now, about the double switch when we need to get a couple lefties out Josh...Freel to Center and Harang to third.....lefty lefty, K , K...ok...now josh get back to center...
He could honestly be the Reds closer...no really...

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 02:55 PM
Dunn is the main source of run production day in and day out in spite of his problems. While I agree that Griffey is still a dangerous hitter, he's 38 and likely to be gone after his current contract. Jay Bruce looks like a stud in the making, but he's still only in A+ right now and looks to be Griffey's replacement. Joey Votto should slide in at 1B and Valaika and Francicso should be a year or two away by 2009.
Dunn is the main source on this team because it is a completely flawed team. I don't have a problem with what Dunn does at the plate really, but I think the guys running this team do. Griffey is 37 and will be gone after his current contract. Of course, I think Dunn is gone after his current contract as well. Jay will finish the season in AA and it would not surprise me at all if he starts 2008 in AAA.


The team will still be in need of an offensive centerpiece and defense in LF is probably less important than anywhere on the field. A good CF (Hamilton) who can cheat toward left center a little with a good rangey RF (Bruce) really makes Dunn's (or that of any other offensive power source who'd stand in LF) defense more of a nuisance than a problem. There really aren't many defensive studs who play LF and provide offense anyway. When Griffey is gone, I just don't see how this team can compete without a huge offensive threat in LF. Any threat acquired is likely to be a similar defensive problem and cost just as much (and that assumes one can be found who is available and can be convinced to play in Cincinnati). The team will languish at the bottom of the league in offensive production without a major power source in LF.

This team can compete if they replace Dunn with a solid hitter, a guy who will hit 25-30 HR and play solid defense for half the money they will pay Dunn to do what he does, then spend the other 7-8 million on other parts of the team.



As far as pitching and defense go, having major offensive threats at 1B and LF (where defense is less important) is exactly what allows a team to go with defense first players at the more important spots like SS, 2B and CF.

Maybe so, but the Reds dont have that guy at first base right now and the question is do the Reds sign Dunn to an extension? If they dont, and in my mind it doesn't make sense to do so unless he is going to sign for 12 million a year, which he won't then they must look at trading him.

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 02:59 PM
I just don't understand why people hate a guy like Dunn that puts up 200 or more runs+RBI every season, and they love a guy like Freel that puts up less than 100 runs+RBI every year.

Is it better to hustle your way to worse than mediocre production? Or is it better to endure lots of strikeouts while putting tons of runs on the scoreboard? The goal of the game is to produce runs right?

Dunn scores more runs than Freel. Dunn gets more RBIs in one season than Freel has in his entire five-year career. Dunn doesn't get thrown out 18 times in one year trying to steal (including pick-offs). Dunn makes fewer outs than Freel.

Yet people love Freel and hate Dunn.

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 03:03 PM
This team can compete if they replace Dunn with a solid hitter, a guy who will hit 25-30 HR and play solid defense for half the money they will pay Dunn to do what he does, then spend the other 7-8 million on other parts of the team.

That isn't possible. Name some players that meet those criteria that will be available this offseason. Nobody that can do those things is available as a free agent for $6 million per year.

mth123
05-06-2007, 03:11 PM
This team can compete if they replace Dunn with a solid hitter, a guy who will hit 25-30 HR and play solid defense for half the money they will pay Dunn to do what he does, then spend the other 7-8 million on other parts of the team.

This is the crux of our disagreement. I think Dunn is a DH who really campares with guys like Ortiz, Manny, Hafner, Giambi and the like defensively. I've posted many times that I don't trust him to be the guy at 1B completing the outs. The fact that he is a lousey defender isn't lost on me.

I'm just not convinced that the "solid hitter, a guy who will hit 25-30 HR and play solid defense" will come to Cincy for less than $10 Million per year (Juan Pierre and Gary Mathews Jr make nearly that much). Dunn at $14 Million isn't bad in this market for what he does on offense (creates runs) and LF just isn't an important enough defensive position to pay a premium for it.

Obviously if he can't be signed he must be shopped and max return extracted.

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 03:19 PM
This is the crux of our disagreement. I think Dunn is a DH who really campares with guys like Ortiz, Manny, Hafner, Giambi and the like defensively. I've posted many times that I don't trust him to be the guy at 1B completing the outs. The fact that he is a lousey defender isn't lost on me.

I'm just not convinced that the "solid hitter, a guy who will hit 25-30 HR and play solid defense" will come to Cincy for less than $10 Million per year (Juan Pierre and Gary Mathews Jr make nearly that much). Dunn at $14 Million isn't bad in this market for what he does on offense (creates runs) and LF just isn't an important enough defensive position to pay a premium for it.

Obviously if he can't be signed he must be shopped and max return extracted.

All of those guys you listed though are much better hitters than Dunn. Not that its a slight so much on Dunn as it is praise for those other guys. Maybe I am underestimating the Market, but I am thinking a Mike Cameron type... who makes 7-8 million a year, plays above average defense and has an OPs in the 800-850 range. Obviously Cameron isnt playing so hot this year, but I am saying get Cameron, just a player like him.

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 03:22 PM
I just don't understand why people hate a guy like Dunn that puts up 200 or more runs+RBI every season, and they love a guy like Freel that puts up less than 100 runs+RBI every year.

Is it better to hustle your way to worse than mediocre production? Or is it better to endure lots of strikeouts while putting tons of runs on the scoreboard? The goal of the game is to produce runs right?

Dunn scores more runs than Freel. Dunn gets more RBIs in one season than Freel has in his entire five-year career. Dunn doesn't get thrown out 18 times in one year trying to steal (including pick-offs). Dunn makes fewer outs than Freel.

Yet people love Freel and hate Dunn.

I agree with you on that one. The love the Freel gets in this city boggles my mind simply because he hustles. Great. He isn't that good of a player though. Dunn is much better, but people hate him for whatever reason they can grasp.


That isn't possible. Name some players that meet those criteria that will be available this offseason. Nobody that can do those things is available as a free agent for $6 million per year.
I am aiming for the 7-8-9 million dollar range for a Dunn replacement who will hit you 25-30 HR and play good defense.... think Mike Cameron, who makes 7.3 million this year. A player like that will replace Dunns production, not completely at the plate, but will make up runs in the field to offset it some, and also save you 5-7 million a year over what Dunn will be getting in his next contract.

mth123
05-06-2007, 03:26 PM
All of those guys you listed though are much better hitters than Dunn. Not that its a slight so much on Dunn as it is praise for those other guys. Maybe I am underestimating the Market, but I am thinking a Mike Cameron type... who makes 7-8 million a year, plays above average defense and has an OPs in the 800-850 range. Obviously Cameron isnt playing so hot this year, but I am saying get Cameron, just a player like him.

Yeah, I'm only camparing them on defense.

I'm not sure Cameron would produce enough Runs and his $7 to $8 Million contract was signed in December of 2003. The market has gone way up since then. He'll get $10+ per year.

dougdirt
05-06-2007, 03:32 PM
Yeah, I'm only camparing them on defense.

I'm not sure Cameron would produce enough Runs and his $7 to $8 Million contract was signed in December of 2003. The market has gone way up since then. He'll get $10+ per year.

Yeah, maybe you are right.... if we sign someone as a free agent. But if we trade Dunn for an established guy of that ilk already who is still arb eligible and say has 3-4 years of service time, then he wont be so expensive.

AdamDunn
05-06-2007, 05:55 PM
Yeah, maybe you are right.... if we sign someone as a free agent. But if we trade Dunn for an established guy of that ilk already who is still arb eligible and say has 3-4 years of service time, then he wont be so expensive.

Like who? I can't think of anyone we could trade for that fit's te description of 25-30 HR and good defense that any team would trade for Adam Dunn.

I(heart)Freel
05-06-2007, 07:00 PM
It is a no-brainer... You spend however much money it takes to keep Adam Dunn on the Reds. I am sick of the excuses. If you want to own and operate a major league baseball team you simply have to pay out the money to keep your best player. Period. End of story.

What kind of message would it send to Reds fans if they are too cheap to sign Dunn? If you need to keep the payroll down, you still have to keep your best player and cut corners elsewhere. This isn't the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Reds draw 2,000,000+ fans every year so there is plenty of money coming in to have at least an 80 million dollar payroll.

I think we as Reds fans have gotten so accustomed to the idea of the Reds as hopelessly screwed financially that we don't even contemplate the idea of the Reds actually spending any money. While the Reds can't hope to spend like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, Cincinnati is not a teeny-weeny miniscule city incapable of supporting a professional franchise. I think if the timing is right then the Reds will spend some money. By timing I mean if we have most of the pieces in place via smart trades and good home-grown talent then I think Castellini will allow Krivsky to make one or two big free agent signings to put us over the top. Have some faith!

Griffey's and Milton's salaries will disappear soon so that will clear up plenty of money to sign Dunn. Hopefully Castellini will put up more money to actually make the Reds into suitors for premium free agent talent this offseason. There is no reason he can't do it. We shouldn't necessarily pin the Schott/Lindner cheapskate label on Castellini unless he actually earns it. I still have hope he will be a more proactive owner that wants to win the World Series instead of merely owning the team as an investment.

And before anybody tries to say Adam Dunn is not the Reds best player you'd better try to show us who is better. Nobody else on the Reds puts runs on the board better than Dunn -- not even close.

Last year Adam Dunn was responsible for putting 191 runs + RBI on the board, the next best player was Brandon Phillips with only 140. That is a huge difference -- and everyone else was even lower. Dunn in the last 3 years has produced 207, 208 and 191 runs + RBI. Without Adam Dunn this team would be truly pathetic offensively.

Where else can you get 190+ runs worth of production on the market? How much would that type of free agent cost us? At least $15 million per year. If you want to have good players on this team then you have to pay them a market wage. I agree that player salaries are absurd, but we can't just bury our heads in the sand and pretend otherwise. $13 million for a guy that produces 200 runs + RBI is less than the going rate on the market.

Even though Dunn strikes out often and has a low batting average it doesn't matter one tiny bit. He puts runs on the scoreboard and that is all that matters. Making contact and getting basehits is not the goal of the game. The goal of the game is to produce runs. Dunn produces runs far better than any other Red. It doesn't matter how you produce the runs. You can hit .350 or hit 50 homers or steal 100 bases -- just as long as you put runs on the scoreboard. Adam Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard by walking often (high OB%) and hitting for power. We must either keep him or trade him for another proven big-time run producer.

There are plenty of players on other teams that produce 200 runs or more, but they are either unavailable or making very high salaries. There are players that aren't as good as Dunn that make more money than he does. Dunn is a very nice bargain at $10 million, a good deal at $13 million and a fair deal at $15 million.

Dunn is young, he doesn't get hurt, he doesn't whine or complain, and he puts runs on the scoreboard. He is a keeper.



Wake up and smell the state of baseball economics.

I mean, really.

GABP has been open 4 full seasons now. I think the Reds as an organization know pretty well what it's going to bring in, revenue-wise. That's a reality. And yes, a constraint. BCast and his crew knew that number and what the rest of the expenses are and set the payroll at what it is.

He didn't arbitrarily set it. It's derived. It's a business.

So let's PLEASE be realistic and pencil in future payroll levels at $65 to $75 million. Do you really think a business-person is going to spend more than he'll make? That's naive. And give me a break about Castellini needing to spend more money because of civic pride blahblahblah.

The revenue to be had in this market in what it is. I know for a fact that he and the ownership team are doing everything they can to maximize that number. That riverboat thingie above the batting eye ain't just for show. It's another way to make more money.

I also know for a fact that Castellini himself hates to lose. A friend of mine in the organization says that people actually avoid him walking through the hall after a loss because he's so angry about it. So let's not question his heart either.

I'm saying all this in this thread because it's painfully clear to me at least that this ownership group wants to win and will spend everything it can to do so while running a business. So... knowing the payroll will be, let's say $75 mill, how much do you spend on your big-time run producer?

15 percent? 20 percent? For one player?

Every team has its star and spends for it. But know that because a disproprotionate amount it being spent on one guy that you will sacrifice resources elsewhere (i.e. bullpen, fifth starter, bench). Again, the revenue (and therefore the payroll) is somewhat fixed.

So rather than arguing the merits of Dunn's run production (especially with the runs produced stat and oddly comparing Dunn to Ryan Freel), let's determine what percentage of your payroll you spend on one guy?

BucksandReds
05-06-2007, 08:08 PM
This team has to keep Dunn so the fans know that we're committed to winning. HRs sell tickets. I have to think that him being on the team resuls in multple millions of dollars per year that wouldn't be there otherwise

Marc D
05-06-2007, 08:20 PM
This team has to keep Dunn so the fans know that we're committed to winning. HRs sell tickets. I have to think that him being on the team resuls in multple millions of dollars per year that wouldn't be there otherwise


Same was said of Casey.

I am a big Dunn fan but I root for the name on the front of the jersey, not on the back. Do whats best for the team but don't freakin give him away for a couple of scrub middle relievers.

If you can get the old compareable production for less money thing going then do it. Just spend the saved money wisely, not in extending has beens or never were's.

redsfanmia
05-06-2007, 08:30 PM
This team has to keep Dunn so the fans know that we're committed to winning. HRs sell tickets. I have to think that him being on the team resuls in multple millions of dollars per year that wouldn't be there otherwise

Dunn hasn't really proved that he is a winner so how does keeping him mean they are committed to winning? Getting rid of Dunn and not hamstringing the team financially would be more a committment to winning than signing Dunn to a LTR.

Bobcat J
05-06-2007, 10:49 PM
This team has to keep Dunn so the fans know that we're committed to winning. HRs sell tickets. I have to think that him being on the team resuls in multple millions of dollars per year that wouldn't be there otherwise

Winning sells tickets.

DTCromer
05-06-2007, 11:07 PM
Personally, I would pick up Dunn's option for 1 more year @13 million. Why? Well, my reasoning behind it is what the Bengals did with Justin Smith. I don't think Dunn is worth 13 million a year nor do I think Bustin is worth 8 mill a year, but we have enough cap room for 1 year to afford their contracts especially after Griffey/Milton's contracts. Plus, I'm not sure what we could get for Dunn. Some GM in the American League will be desperate enough to pick up Dunn and give us some pretty good major leaguers just so Adam can play DH in a trade. I'd like to trade him if we could, but I'm not sure what we'd get back in return.


Dunn is still the best hitter the Reds have by a comfortable margin.

I disagree with you on that. I'd rather take Hatteberg/Conine's plate presence than Dunn's. Congrats to Dunn for putting up 40 hr's and 92 RBI's and where 66% of his career RBI's come off HR's. That there speaks volumes about the guy. I'm still in the view that Dunn is the most overrated player in the league by a comfortable margin. People fall in love with the home run too much.

AtomicDumpling
05-06-2007, 11:23 PM
Hatteberg only put 113 runs+RBI on the board last year as a full-time player. That is pathetic for a 1B. Dunn produced 191 runs+RBI and is usually over 200.

Compare our first base platoon to the other teams in the National League and you will see that we are second worst in the league at 1B. Only the Washington Nationals are worse at the position -- and that is only because their regular 1B is injured (Nick Johnson, who is a much better hitter than our first basemen). Pittsburgh's first baseman LaRoche is off to a horrible start but was excellent last year.

If you want to claim someone other than Dunn is the Reds' best hitter I think you can make a case for Griffey or even Hamilton's small sample -- but Hatteberg isn't even close.

As I have said before the name of the game is to put runs on the board no matter how you do it. Adam Dunn is by far the Reds' best run producer and has been for years even though he is still only 27.

Guys that put 200+ runs&RBI on the board are expensive to keep around. Dunn is definitely worth $15 million dollars per year.

TeamBoone
05-06-2007, 11:34 PM
I'd rather take Hatteberg/Conine's plate presence than Dunn's. Congrats to Dunn for putting up 40 hr's and 92 RBI's and where 66% of his career RBI's come off HR's. That there speaks volumes about the guy. I'm still in the view that Dunn is the most overrated player in the league by a comfortable margin. People fall in love with the home run too much.

Obviously you haven't read many of the "Dunn" threads on this board. It's been proven over and over again by the stat guys that Adam Dunn brings a whole lot more to the Reds than HRs.

I was pleasantly surprised to hear Thom B. talking about some of those things this weekend.

You really really should read some of those threads because what you said is just plain dead wrong; in addition, you underestimate the fans because many of them know what he brings!

Marge'sMullet
05-06-2007, 11:40 PM
Guys like Griffey and Hamilton were born to play this game. Without a major injury I think they both will surpass 190 runs produced.

DTCromer
05-06-2007, 11:56 PM
[QUOTE]If you want to claim someone other than Dunn is the Reds' best hitter I think you can make a case for Griffey or even Hamilton's small sample -- but Hatteberg isn't even close.
QUOTE]

When I think hitter, I think of a guy who can do more than HR's. I'm sorry, I just don't get how you see Dunn any other way. Like I said, 66% of his career RBI's come off the HR. That's a very high number for a power guy like Dunn. He should average 120 RBI's a year with his power but he doesn't even come close. He barely made it over a 100 with a 46 HR year.

You'll never convince me Adam is a so called "great" hitter and I'm in the corner with Marty that Dunn isn't a run producer. I guess our definitions of a run producer are different. . . and that's fine with me. This is such a polarized topic that it really gets on the nerves of a lot of people including mine. I just have the opinion Dunn is lazy and should be monumentally better especially at this point in his career.

dougdirt
05-07-2007, 01:12 AM
Hatteberg only put 113 runs+RBI on the board last year as a full-time player. That is pathetic for a 1B. Dunn produced 191 runs+RBI and is usually over 200.

Compare our first base platoon to the other teams in the National League and you will see that we are second worst in the league at 1B. Only the Washington Nationals are worse at the position -- and that is only because their regular 1B is injured (Nick Johnson, who is a much better hitter than our first basemen). Pittsburgh's first baseman LaRoche is off to a horrible start but was excellent last year.

If you want to claim someone other than Dunn is the Reds' best hitter I think you can make a case for Griffey or even Hamilton's small sample -- but Hatteberg isn't even close.

As I have said before the name of the game is to put runs on the board no matter how you do it. Adam Dunn is by far the Reds' best run producer and has been for years even though he is still only 27.

Guys that put 200+ runs&RBI on the board are expensive to keep around. Dunn is definitely worth $15 million dollars per year.

Your RBI+Run stat is severely flawed on so many levels.

1. RBI+Runs counts any run that was scored off of a HR twice. So when Dunn hit 40 HR, you need to subtract 40 runs off that number becuase while it goes in both the run and RBI category, it only counts once in baseball.

2. Not every player gets equal chances to produce RBI's. From 2004-2006 Adam Dunn had 733 at bats with runners on base, while Hatteberg had just 652. Now Dunn had a better OPS, .932-.875 but not all RBI numbers are created equally.

AmarilloRed
05-07-2007, 01:47 AM
It all seems to hinge on how Dunn plays this year on whether or not we pick up his option.

peterose00
05-07-2007, 01:48 AM
I think Dunn is incredible at a couple of aspects of the game -- OBP and home run power. He performs in those two areas on a par with nearly anyone who has ever worn a reds uniform -- so he certainly deserves credit for those things.

I am not convinced that he should be coveted as a player the way he is among so many folks here. Many argue that if Dunn is the best offensive weapon that the Reds have, then how can it be possible to justify trading away the best guy we have. I would argue that the fact that Dunn is (one of) our best offensive players does not by itself mean that he could not be moved under any circumstance.

For all the guy does well, he also does some things extremely poorly -- and it is my opinion (which I want to stress) that many of those bad things cancel out much of what he brings to the table.

Dunn's strikeouts happen at historically high rates -- not for a Reds player, but for any player that has ever played Major League baseball -- ever. I do not subscribe to the theory that a strikeout is just another out. That is only true under certain circumstances. At other times, a strikeout is the absolutely worst thing that could happen.

Dunn's defense is still below average. He isn't making the errors he once did -- but his routes to many balls is still poor. He doesn't cover the ground that I believe Krivsky would like to have in his LFer.

Intangibles often are dismssed as not important as well -- but I believe they are very important. I don't believe that Dunn hstles o the field like he should. I don't believe that he provides te leadership in the clubhouse that he should. And I do not believe he provides the inspiration or winning attitude that another player could. Call those things veteran presence and dismiss them if you want.

But this club is in the middle of a streak of losing seasons that goes longer than any streak anyone of most of us have experienced in any of our lifetimes. As it relates to having Adam Dunn on this club and achieving the same result we have seen for the past severa years, I say -- no thanks.

Dunn could bring value back in a trade and I am ready to try something different in an attempt to get a different (more positive) team result.

peterose00
05-07-2007, 01:54 AM
Your RBI+Run stat is severely flawed on so many levels.

That is very true - Hatteberg was platooned much of last year while Dunn essentially played everyday. Rich Aurilia started 37 games at 1B last year for the Reds.

BucksandReds
05-07-2007, 02:03 AM
That is very true - Hatteberg was platooned much of last year while Dunn essentially played everyday. Rich Aurilia started 37 games at 1B last year for the Reds.

Yeah I don't know if it was this thread but I remember when the guy attacked the Hatteberg comment I was thinking that Hatte didn't start even 2/3 of the games so his at bats had to be about 60-70% of Dunn's. We must get a star in return for Dunn IMHO. Either by making a 3 or more team trade and combing players or staright up (the former is definitely th more likely.) I can't respect his loofiness in the O field and inability to make a sacrifice fly. I guess that he is effective but it's hard to cheer for him. Give me Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Bruce and Hamilton and do whatever you want with the rest of the team. We're a couple of years away at this point. Not that we'll win in a couple of years but we have little chance before then.

peterose00
05-07-2007, 02:39 AM
Yeah I don't know if it was this thread but I remember when the guy attacked the Hatteberg comment I was thinking that Hatte didn't start even 2/3 of the games so his at bats had to be about 60-70% of Dunn's. We must get a star in return for Dunn IMHO. Either by making a 3 or more team trade and combing players or staright up (the former is definitely th more likely.) I can't respect his loofiness in the O field and inability to make a sacrifice fly. I guess that he is effective but it's hard to cheer for him. Give me Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Bruce and Hamilton and do whatever you want with the rest of the team. We're a couple of years away at this point. Not that we'll win in a couple of years but we have little chance before then.

I'm with you on that.

Actually it is exciting to see that Krivsky's plan is starting to take shape.

Add Phillips and Joey Votto to the list you had above. Plus I believe that Dunn could bring some value back in a deal. Getting Junior's and Milton's contracts off the books will help too.

AtomicDumpling
05-07-2007, 03:27 AM
The run+RBI stat is not flawed. If you perform both halves of the deal by hitting a home run (both scoring the run and driving it in) then you should get credit for doing both halves.

Is it harder to drive in a run on third base or to drive in a run from home plate? Obviously advancing a runner 4 bases is tougher than advancing a runner 1 or 2 bases. You should get credit for that.

Hatteberg had nearly as many plate appearances as Dunn last year so that is no excuse. He barely produced half as many runs as Dunn did even though he had nearly as many opportunities.

The reason Hatteberg is a platoon player is because he is not good enough to be a full-time player. If you aren't even good enough to be a full-time player then you can't claim to be the best hitter on the team.

Dunn is the Reds' stud, Griffey is a part-time stud, and Hamilton is a stud recently. Take a look around the league and focus on the winning teams. They all have multiple stud hitters. The Reds do not. That is why the Reds are not a winning team. It is not Adam Dunn's fault the rest of his teammates are below average. Dunn is carrying more than his fair share of the load. Don't blame the Reds' losses on Adam Dunn. It just isn't fair, nor accurate.

It is also ridiculous to blame Dunn for the fact most of his RBIs come on homers. That is the expected reality with all home run hitters. Look at any player that hits 40+ homers and you will see that is the primary source of their RBIs. Duh.

It is not Dunn's fault there usually isn't anyone on base when he homers. Blame that on Freel and Phillips. There have been plenty of factual posts on these threads that have proven that Dunn's stats with runners in scoring position are just as good as without runners in scoring position if not better. M2, mth123 and JoJo have proven it beyond all doubt multiple times on these boards already. Marty Brenneman needs to check the stats before opening his mouth on the subject.

dougdirt
05-07-2007, 03:46 AM
The run+RBI stat is not flawed. If you perform both halves of the deal by hitting a home run (both scoring the run and driving it in) then you should get credit for doing both halves.

Defend it all you want, but its flawed. Dunn hits a solo HR. The Reds score 1 run. You credit Dunn for producing 2. Its flawed.



Hatteberg had nearly as many plate appearances as Dunn last year so that is no excuse. He barely produced half as many runs as Dunn did even though he had nearly as many opportunities.

Dunn had 235 at bats with runners on base. Hatteberg had 187 with runners on base. Is Dunn a better run producer? Yes. I never argued the fact. I did say that not all RBI numbers are created equally due to more chances for certain guys. With that said, Adam Dunn led the Reds with 98 RC last year. Hatteberg was second with 77 RC last year.



Dunn is the Reds' stud, Griffey is a part-time stud, and Hamilton is a stud recently. Take a look around the league and focus on the winning teams. They all have multiple stud hitters. The Reds do not. That is why the Reds are not a winning team. It is not Adam Dunn's fault the rest of his teammates are below average. Dunn is carrying more than his fair share of the load. Don't blame the Reds' losses on Adam Dunn. It just isn't fair, nor accurate.

If we are talking just this season, it goes Hamilton, Griffey, Dunn in that order. The Reds bats are not why they are losing. The Reds are 6th in runs scored in the NL and 7th in OPS. I don't recall seeing anyone blaming any losses on Adam Dunn.... although I could have missed where someone did.

peterose00
05-07-2007, 06:09 PM
Hatteberg had nearly as many plate appearances as Dunn last year so that is no excuse. He barely produced half as many runs as Dunn did even though he had nearly as many opportunities.

The reason Hatteberg is a platoon player is because he is not good enough to be a full-time player. If you aren't even good enough to be a full-time player then you can't claim to be the best hitter on the team.

That is silly.

Hatteberg's OPS last year against righthanded hitting was .856. At GABP his was .935.

Dunn's was .836 against righthanded hitting. At GABP is was .864.

Looks to me like Adam might be the one who should be platooning in left -- especially when at home.

BRM
05-07-2007, 06:13 PM
That is silly.

Hatteberg's OPS last year against righthanded hitting was .856. At GABP his was .935.

Dunn's was .836 against righthanded hitting. At GABP is was .864.

Looks to me like Adam might be the one who should be platooning in left -- especially when at home.

Hat only had a .679 OPS against LHP last year. Dunn had an OPS of .896 against LHP in 2006. Looks to me like Dunn can hold his own as an everyday player. Hat is truly a platoon player and his numbers show it.

registerthis
05-07-2007, 06:19 PM
That is silly.

The post you quoted, or your own conclusion?

peterose00
05-07-2007, 07:35 PM
Hat only had a .679 OPS against LHP last year. Dunn had an OPS of .896 against LHP in 2006. Looks to me like Dunn can hold his own as an everyday player. Hat is truly a platoon player and his numbers show it.

Duh -- that is why he platoons Mr. Obvious.

peterose00
05-07-2007, 07:37 PM
Dunn had an OPS of .896 against LHP in 2006.

Looks like maybe Dunn would have been platooned.

registerthis
05-07-2007, 08:06 PM
When I think hitter, I think of a guy who can do more than HR's.

For his career, Dunn has 206 HRs, 156 doubles, and 591 walks.

In other words, he's an extra-base and on-base % machine. But it's easier to simply throw around incorrect generalities.


Like I said, 66% of his career RBI's come off the HR.

...which is worse than 66% of his RBIs coming from doubles and singles?

Besides, RBIs are a rather useless stat to use when judging the worth of hitters. But if you want to fault Dunn for batters in front of him not getting on base, feel free.

registerthis
05-07-2007, 08:09 PM
Duh -- that is why he platoons Mr. Obvious.

What is obvious is that someone who is not a full-time player shouldn't be considered the best hitter on the team.

What isn't as obvious is why you think a guy who has an .896 OPS vs. right handers and .836 vs. lefthanders should be platooning. Please elaborate.

TC81190
05-07-2007, 08:26 PM
For his career, Dunn has 206 HRs, 156 doubles, and 591 walks.

In other words, he's an extra-base and on-base % machine. But it's easier to simply throw around incorrect generalities.



...which is worse than 66% of his RBIs coming from doubles and singles?

Besides, RBIs are a rather useless stat to use when judging the worth of hitters. But if you want to fault Dunn for batters in front of him not getting on base, feel free.


Nothing personal at all here, but I just can't stand it when people here play the "people don't get on base in front of Dunn" card. Wasnt it said earlier in this thread that he led the team in PA's with RISP? And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.

DTCromer
05-07-2007, 10:14 PM
Nothing personal at all here, but I just can't stand it when people here play the "people don't get on base in front of Dunn" card. Wasnt it said earlier in this thread that he led the team in PA's with RISP? And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.

Just for facts. . . here are Dunn's amazing stats. And by amazing, I mean absolutely mind boggling stats for a guy who's considered the best hitter on this team by a lot of people.

W/RISP: 4 for 25, 12 K's, .160 BA
W/RISP and 2 Outs: 2 for 14, 8 K's .153 BA
Count is 1-2: 1 for 24, 15 K's, .042 BA
After 1-2: 3 for 41, 29 K's, .073
Count is 3-2: 1 for 13, 8 K's, .153

To balance this out, Adam's best situations:
Count 0-0: 11 for 20, 4 HR's
None on, None Out: 9 for 28, 3 doubles, 2 HR's, but 10 K's

If Dunn is the best "hitter" on our team, then this lineup needs to be changed around or Dunn needs to be traded. The numbers above are the reasons why I don't think Dunn is worth as much as people say in the FA market and trade value as well. I'm not just astonished at the bad numbers in clutch situations, but HORRENDOUS numbers.

I(heart)Freel
05-07-2007, 10:19 PM
For his career, Dunn has 206 HRs, 156 doubles, and 591 walks.

In other words, he's an extra-base and on-base % machine. But it's easier to simply throw around incorrect generalities.



...which is worse than 66% of his RBIs coming from doubles and singles?

Besides, RBIs are a rather useless stat to use when judging the worth of hitters. But if you want to fault Dunn for batters in front of him not getting on base, feel free.


One of the arguments to "prove" Dunn's worth on this thread was runs produced (R + RBI). If half of that stat is useless, does that make the whole argument, um, pointless?

snowstorm
05-07-2007, 10:35 PM
While I don't disagree that Dunn has his weaknesses, I think the Reds really ought to bring him back. The number of good things he does outweighs the bad. Griffey won't be around for much longer, and we need a legitimate left handed power threat. Having said that, the Reds really need to go out and get a right handed power hitter to compliment Dunn. With more protection in the lineup, I think you would see Dunn's numbers skyrocket.

AtomicDumpling
05-08-2007, 01:21 AM
Just for facts. . . here are Dunn's amazing stats. And by amazing, I mean absolutely mind boggling stats for a guy who's considered the best hitter on this team by a lot of people.

W/RISP: 4 for 25, 12 K's, .160 BA
W/RISP and 2 Outs: 2 for 14, 8 K's .153 BA
Count is 1-2: 1 for 24, 15 K's, .042 BA
After 1-2: 3 for 41, 29 K's, .073
Count is 3-2: 1 for 13, 8 K's, .153

To balance this out, Adam's best situations:
Count 0-0: 11 for 20, 4 HR's
None on, None Out: 9 for 28, 3 doubles, 2 HR's, but 10 K's

If Dunn is the best "hitter" on our team, then this lineup needs to be changed around or Dunn needs to be traded. The numbers above are the reasons why I don't think Dunn is worth as much as people say in the FA market and trade value as well. I'm not just astonished at the bad numbers in clutch situations, but HORRENDOUS numbers.

Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees. LOL

Adam Dunn leads the Reds in producing runs. You can't change that fact by pointing out ratios from certain small sample size situations just because they point to your desired conclusion.

If Dunn is so HORRENDOUS like you claim then why does he lead the Reds in run production every year including this one?

The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.

Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.

Therefore Adam Dunn is the Reds best player.

Because Adam Dunn is the Reds best player he must be re-signed or traded for another player that could take over Dunn's role as the Reds' best player.

It really is that simple.

peterose00
05-08-2007, 02:05 AM
What is obvious is that someone who is not a full-time player shouldn't be considered the best hitter on the team.

What isn't as obvious is why you think a guy who has an .896 OPS vs. right handers and .836 vs. lefthanders should be platooning. Please elaborate.

It is a team game. I could care less if we platoon the whole damn lineup if the team performs better because of it.

Dunn hit .215 last year against righthanders. That sucks. His OBP against righthanders was .359 . That sucks. His defense sucks. The routes he takes to get to balls sucks. He doesn't hustle.

peterose00
05-08-2007, 02:06 AM
Nothing personal at all here, but I just can't stand it when people here play the "people don't get on base in front of Dunn" card. Wasnt it said earlier in this thread that he led the team in PA's with RISP? And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.

Amen

AtomicDumpling
05-08-2007, 02:14 AM
Nothing personal at all here, but I just can't stand it when people here play the "people don't get on base in front of Dunn" card. Wasnt it said earlier in this thread that he led the team in PA's with RISP? And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.

Nope. Quite the contrary in fact. It has been shown on these boards many times that Dunn's stats with RISP are extremely close to his stats without RISP over the last few years.

If he is such a terrible hitter with RISP as you claim then why does he lead the team by a wide margin every season in run production? He is just one guy on the same team with very similar opportunities as the other guys around him in the lineup.

Adam Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard at a higher rate than any other Cincinnati Red. Every year.

You can't take that away from him no matter what you say or think. It is just a fact.

You can dislike the way he plays if you wish, but the guy produces runs better than any other Red. So maybe more guys should utilize his style of play. Maybe then the rest of them could produce runs as well as he does.

Eric_Davis
05-08-2007, 04:52 AM
Resign him. He's probably got 200 homeruns in him over the next 5 years.....and 450 runs and 450 RBI's. Try to get him to sign for $50M for 5 years.

Eric_Davis
05-08-2007, 04:58 AM
But if you want to fault Dunn for batters in front of him not getting on base, feel free.

Not a good line to use when you're talking about a guy with a career .219 average with RISP. He clearly has major problems here...not minor ones. When you're sniffing the Mendoza line for your entire career whenever anyone gets in scoring position, you have some major issues. But, I'd still offer him $50M for 5 years...but, if he wants more, then I'd trade him by the trade deadline.

storrs19
05-08-2007, 08:42 AM
If we can get EE to get back to his normal self I would say I would trade him. That gives you Hamilton, Freel and Griffey in the OF with Hopper in the reserve tank. I like Dunn and think he is a great part of this team but his salary will not be affordable to the Reds as I figure what most have said, he will get about $15 million a year with a 4 or 5 year contract.

He is taylor made for the DH spot (then he could only play occasional left field in a pinch). Now we need to find an AL team who needs a bopper and has some good relief pitching they want to trade.

This is kind of a prelude to what we will do with Griffey in a few years. He is also taylor made for DH. Trading Griffey is not really possible as he is a 10-6er and can block trades he doesn't like and he likes to stay in Cincinnati. He sure could have gotten more in 2000 by going elsewhere.

Who knows what he could have done had he stayed in the AL and become a DH. He could have easily finished his career with 650+ HR and maybe even 700 as he would have saved his legs and been healthier overall.

But Back to Dunn. My biggest complaint is he is not an RBI man. He had 40 HR last year but only 90 RBI (or close to it). Give me someone with 30 HR and 120 RBI any day.

Krusty
05-08-2007, 09:19 AM
Pay a guy to be a RBI guy when he isn't one? Let him go and use the money to bring in a free agent slugger this offseason.

UC_Ken
05-08-2007, 09:34 AM
This is kind of a prelude to what we will do with Griffey in a few years. He is also taylor made for DH. Trading Griffey is not really possible as he is a 10-6er and can block trades he doesn't like and he likes to stay in Cincinnati. He sure could have gotten more in 2000 by going elsewhere.

Griffey has said in the past when there were trade rumors he doesn't want to be anywhere he's not wanted. He would definately accept a trade to a contender with the possible exceptions being for west coast teams and his hatred of the Yankees.

nate
05-08-2007, 10:04 AM
Resign.

Can you imagine Dunn facing _our_ pitching?

registerthis
05-08-2007, 10:25 AM
One of the arguments to "prove" Dunn's worth on this thread was runs produced (R + RBI). If half of that stat is useless, does that make the whole argument, um, pointless?

"Runs produced" is a lousy way to judge the offensive worth of a player.

RBIs have some marginal value, but are pretty far down the list of things that I look at when judging the offensive prowess of a player.

BRM
05-08-2007, 10:34 AM
Duh -- that is why he platoons Mr. Obvious.

Thanks Capt Snarky. You were the one tooting Hatteberg's horn and claiming Dunn should be platooned. I was just showing you how wrong you were. Sorry if that upset you.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 10:38 AM
Wasnt it said earlier in this thread that he led the team in PA's with RISP? And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.

It has? I must have missed that, because what I see is Adam Dunn with a .924 OPS with RISP during 2006, a whopping .018 behind Ryan Howard and ahead of such stalwarts (and RZ favorites) as Alfonso Soriano, Andruw Jones and Chase Utley. Oh, and not only did he lead the team in PA with RISP, he also led the team in OPS with RISP as well. All this despite the fact that 2006 was an admittedly down year for Dunn, as in 2005 he had a monstrous 1.041 OPS with RISP.

Adam Dunn "fails miserably" with RISP? Hardly.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 10:39 AM
Not a good line to use when you're talking about a guy with a career .219 average with RISP.

Not a good argument to use if you're trying to show that Dunn isn't productive with RISP. See my above post.

registerthis
05-08-2007, 10:40 AM
If we can get EE to get back to his normal self I would say I would trade him.

I didn't realize E_E HAD a "normal self". The way I see it, E_E remains an offensive and defensive question mark, as much as the 2005-06 versions of Felipe Lopez were.

Highlifeman21
05-08-2007, 11:12 AM
Pay a guy to be a RBI guy when he isn't one? Let him go and use the money to bring in a free agent slugger this offseason.

Does this mystery slugger have a name and a price?

Redsland
05-08-2007, 11:42 AM
And its been shown that he fails, and miserably, in these situations.
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

membengal
05-08-2007, 11:44 AM
Silly redsland. Wasting time with facts.

BRM
05-08-2007, 11:46 AM
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

Yeah but OPS is meaningless because it gives a batter credit for taking a walk. Walks suck with RISP...or so I've been told. ;)

membengal
05-08-2007, 11:47 AM
No doubt. Much more macho to make a manly out.

dougdirt
05-08-2007, 01:17 PM
Adam Dunn leads the Reds in producing runs. You can't change that fact by pointing out ratios from certain small sample size situations just because they point to your desired conclusion.

The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.

Therefore Adam Dunn is the Reds best player.

Because Adam Dunn is the Reds best player he must be re-signed or traded for another player that could take over Dunn's role as the Reds' best player.

It really is that simple.

Where to start.....
Yes you can change the fact by stating ratio, becuase if a guy is doing something more often when given the chance, he is indeed better at doing it. Just because he doesn't get enough chances to match the guy getting more, does not change the fact that he is doing so more frequently.
The only stat that matters is runs on the scoreboard.... correct. However, Adam Dunn has influence on runs of both sides of the scoreboard. His defense helps put runs on the other side of the scoreboard.
Because Dunn puts more runs on the board does not mean he is the Reds best player. You are looking at it as a completely offensive side of the spectrum. Adam Dunn conversly is the Reds worst defensive player by far. His good and his bad are what they are, but in turn is does not make him the teams best player. The Reds don't need to trade Adam Dunn for a guy who will be the Reds best player.... they need to make a trade that will help offset what Dunn does, be it with a player they get in trade, or a combo of a player(s) they get and money they will save in not resigning him (depending on the player[s] they get and what they will be making compared to what Dunn will be making).
Adam Dunn is 4th in batting average on the team. Middle of the pack.
Adam Dunn is 4th in on base percentage on the team. Middle of the pack.
Adam Dunn is 3rd in slugging percentage on the team. Top 3rd.
Dunn is a solid hitter, but not the best one on the team. Dunn is a horrible defender, the worst one on the team. That does not make you the best player on the team. Sorry, it doesn't. I like Dunn...I do. This isn't a 'hate on Dunn' post by me, its a straighten out the facts post by me.

dougdirt
05-08-2007, 01:18 PM
Resign him. He's probably got 200 homeruns in him over the next 5 years.....and 450 runs and 450 RBI's. Try to get him to sign for $50M for 5 years.

Why would he sign for 10 million a year when his option is for 13 million?

flyer85
05-08-2007, 01:20 PM
An in-season trade isn't likely to bring much, they generally end up being quality for quantity trades.

dougdirt
05-08-2007, 01:35 PM
If he is such a terrible hitter with RISP as you claim then why does he lead the team by a wide margin every season in run production? He is just one guy on the same team with very similar opportunities as the other guys around him in the lineup.
Dunn plays more than everyone else on the team. Dunn gets more chances with runners on base than anyone else on the team. Its not similar chances for other guys.
last season Dunn had 295 plate appearances with runners on base. Next closest guy on the Reds was Phillips with 273. That is 22 more chances than anyone else. The next closest after that was Edwin with 230, or 65 more chances for Dunn...... so no, there were not really 'similar opportunities'.


Adam Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard at a higher rate than any other Cincinnati Red. Every year.
incorrect. He might put more up, but not at a higher rate.
Adam Dunn 2004-2006 0.235 RBI per at bat with runners on.
Ken Griffey Jr 2004-2006 0.287 RBI per at bat with runners on.
Edwin Encarnacion 2004-2006 0.265 RBI per at bat with runners on.


You can't take that away from him no matter what you say or think. It is just a fact.
See above, because its not a fact.


You can dislike the way he plays if you wish, but the guy produces runs better than any other Red. So maybe more guys should utilize his style of play. Maybe then the rest of them could produce runs as well as he does.
Dont dislike him. Just think he will be overpaid after this season.

RichRed
05-08-2007, 01:44 PM
An in-season trade isn't likely to bring much, they generally end up being quality for quantity trades.

Do you have any examples, say in the past year, to back that up? ;)

zombielady
05-08-2007, 01:47 PM
Do you have any examples, say in the past year, to back that up? ;)

we've only had one decent trade in the past three years, as far as I'm concerned....

dougdirt
05-08-2007, 01:52 PM
we've only had one decent trade in the past three years, as far as I'm concerned....

Arroyo?

How was Phillips a bad trade?

How was Kyle Lohse a bad trade?

flyer85
05-08-2007, 01:55 PM
Do you have any examples, say in the past year, to back that up? ;)look at most of the big in-season deals.

RJ, McGwire, Beltran, etc. Now the RJ deal eventually paid off for the Mariners but it took awhile.

My point is that whoever comes back is highly unlikley to be an immediate replacement for Dunn. Even when those type deals pay off it generally takes a few years to see the payoff(similar to when Guillen went to the A's).

klw
05-08-2007, 01:58 PM
Three-year splits:

Adam Dunn OPS, bases empty: .895

Adam Dunn OPS, runners on: .932

Adam Dunn OPS, RISP: .972

I haven't been able to find this stat but what is his slugging percentage with RISP? Just curious because of that whole discussion of the correlation between RBI and SLG.

dougdirt
05-08-2007, 02:01 PM
I haven't been able to find this stat but what is his slugging percentage with RISP? Just curious because of that whole discussion of the correlation between RBI and SLG.

.538 with RISP.
.520 with runners on.
.543 with no one on.

RichRed
05-08-2007, 02:02 PM
look at most of the big in-season deals.

RJ, McGwire, Beltran, etc. Now the RJ deal eventually paid off for the Mariners but it took awhile.

My point is that whoever comes back is highly unlikley to be an immediate replacement for Dunn. Even when those type deals pay off it generally takes a few years to see the payoff(similar to when Guillen went to the A's).

Oh, I totally agree with you. I was being sarcastic because when you said...


An in-season trade isn't likely to bring much, they generally end up being quality for quantity trades.

...The (Dreaded) Trade leapt immediately to mind. That was the example I was hinting at.

klw
05-08-2007, 02:18 PM
.538 with RISP.
.520 with runners on.
.543 with no one on.

Thank you and I must say those numbers don't look bad to me. Does the figure of runners on include when they are ISP or is just if they are on 1st. If it is with all runners his % with a runner on 1st must not be very good in comparison.

flyer85
05-08-2007, 02:21 PM
...The (Dreaded) Trade leapt immediately to mind. That was the example I was hinting at.I left it out because it really doesn't fit the profile of a dealing a single player and that one has just stirs up the passion around here.

zombielady
05-08-2007, 02:23 PM
Arroyo?

How was Phillips a bad trade?

How was Kyle Lohse a bad trade?

I was referring to Arroyo, but... Ok, so one "good" trade and two "okay" trades... :p: And truthfully, I was bitter in the beginning of all three of them...

RichRed
05-08-2007, 02:23 PM
I left it out because it really doesn't fit the profile of a dealing a single player and that one has just stirs up the passion around here.

That's why I tried not to mention it by name but you dragged it out of me. :)

Redsland
05-08-2007, 02:28 PM
Does the figure of runners on include when they are ISP or is just if they are on 1st.
On at any base.

klw
05-08-2007, 02:40 PM
On at any base.

In that case his statistical weakness would appear to be slugging with a runner on 1st.

.543 with no one on.
.538 with RISP.
.520 with runners on inc the .538 for RISP means that with runner on 1st must be quite a bit lower than .520. guessing .490 to .500.

Kind of odd. Is the shift against Dunn used with Runners on and if so is it not used with RISP?

Redsland
05-08-2007, 04:11 PM
Is the shift against Dunn used with Runners on and if so is it not used with RISP?
Generally the shift is not employed when there is a runner at second, because that would leave third base uncovered in the event of a steal attempt. Unless there is also a runner at first and less than two outs, in which case the defense could utilize the shift in hopes of getting a double play, while conceding third base to the runner on second if he wanted to take it. (Barry Larkin used to take third practically at will when hitting in front of Griffey.)

Generally the shift is not employed when the desired play is at the plate, because the third baseman is out of position and the middle infielders are deep.

AtomicDumpling
05-09-2007, 12:09 AM
Dunn plays more than everyone else on the team. Dunn gets more chances with runners on base than anyone else on the team. Its not similar chances for other guys.
last season Dunn had 295 plate appearances with runners on base. Next closest guy on the Reds was Phillips with 273. That is 22 more chances than anyone else. The next closest after that was Edwin with 230, or 65 more chances for Dunn...... so no, there were not really 'similar opportunities'.

incorrect. He might put more up, but not at a higher rate.
Adam Dunn 2004-2006 0.235 RBI per at bat with runners on.
Ken Griffey Jr 2004-2006 0.287 RBI per at bat with runners on.
Edwin Encarnacion 2004-2006 0.265 RBI per at bat with runners on.

See above, because its not a fact.

Dont dislike him. Just think he will be overpaid after this season.

Trying to confuse the facts here?

Adam Dunn has 8% more "RBI opportunities" than Phillips. Dunn has 23% more RBI than Phillips. So that means Phillips' RBI rate is better than Dunn's? Not hardly.

You are also being misleading when you only include RBI with RISP. As we all know a runner doesn't have to be in scoring position to be driven in. In fact this makes Dunn's RBI stats even more impressive because he doesn't rely on other people to get in scoring position before driving them in. He can drive in runners from 1st base and he often drives himself in from home plate by hitting a home run.

Why do so many people want to discount the RBI a guy gets for driving himself in on a home run? That is the most valuable RBI of all. Dunn doesn't rely on other people to drive him in to score. He drives himself in. That is why Dunn also leads the Reds in runs scored every year in addition to leading the team in RBIs.

The reason guys like Encarnacion and Hatteberg etc. don't get as many RBI opportunities as Dunn is because they aren't nearly as talented as Dunn. If you aren't good enough to be a full-time player then you won't get as many chances obviously.

Another factor you neglect to mention is how often Dunn gets pitched around with RISP. Pitchers don't give him good pitches to hit when the game is on the line. They would rather take their chances against the chumps hitting behind him.

It is a proven fact that Dunn is the best run producer on the Reds every year. Trying to argue against that fact will not succeed.

DTCromer
05-09-2007, 12:43 AM
You are also being misleading when you only include RBI with RISP. As we all know a runner doesn't have to be in scoring position to be driven in. In fact this makes Dunn's RBI stats even more impressive because he doesn't rely on other people to get in scoring position before driving them in. He can drive in runners from 1st base and he often drives himself in from home plate by hitting a home run.


That further proves the point that Adam is an all or nothing type of guy. Usually, with RISP, all you need is a hit to score the guy. Adam has proven time and time and time and time and time and time again that he can't do it. So with less pressure on him and a guy on 1st, he'll do better.


Why do so many people want to discount the RBI a guy gets for driving himself in on a home run? That is the most valuable RBI of all. Dunn doesn't rely on other people to drive him in to score. He drives himself in. That is why Dunn also leads the Reds in runs scored every year in addition to leading the team in RBIs.

Of course it's the most important run, but how often does he hit with other guys on? Big freaking deal if he leads the team in RBI's! Just because he leads the team in RBI's doesn't mean he's not overrated or overpaid. As you said, he gets more opportunities with guys than everyone else on the team so getting those 100 RBI's on 46 homers shouldn't be too much of a problem for him. . . but it is.


Another factor you neglect to mention is how often Dunn gets pitched around with RISP. Pitchers don't give him good pitches to hit when the game is on the line. They would rather take their chances against the chumps hitting behind him.

It is a proven fact that Dunn is the best run producer on the Reds every year. Trying to argue against that fact will not succeed.

OK, so they pitch around him. What's the difference if Dunn is 1 - 13 on 3-2 counts or if he's 5 - 65? NOTHING! It's the same damn average. . .it's not about the number of opportunties, it's about what you do with those opportunities.

If it's true Dunn isn't getting anything to hit, then he's swining at terrible balls further proving the point that Dunn isn't a very good "hitter." Adam is a career .246 hitter so why would they often take their chances with the guys behind them when they know they can just strike him out on bad pitches?

DTCromer
05-09-2007, 12:48 AM
Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees. LOL

Adam Dunn leads the Reds in producing runs. You can't change that fact by pointing out ratios from certain small sample size situations just because they point to your desired conclusion.

If Dunn is so HORRENDOUS like you claim then why does he lead the Reds in run production every year including this one?

The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.
The only stat that matters is the runs on the scoreboard.

Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.
Adam Dunn puts the most runs on the scoreboard every year.

Therefore Adam Dunn is the Reds best player.

Because Adam Dunn is the Reds best player he must be re-signed or traded for another player that could take over Dunn's role as the Reds' best player.

It really is that simple.


Congrats to Adam for putting the most runs on the scoreboard. It's true. . I can't deny that. . .those are the facts.

My whole point is when will Adam hit when there's pressure on him? In all of those splits I gave you. . .(which are the most pressurized situations in baseball) Adam couldn't hit the broad side of Rosie O'Donnell's butt.

paintmered
05-09-2007, 12:51 AM
We all know Dunn can be an adventure in LF - but he has made some plays in recent memory thats made me go "Holy S" Its improving... He is improving... He isn't KILLIN us by any means.

Additionally, defensive liabilities hurt a team the least in left field.

DTCromer
05-09-2007, 12:54 AM
Additionally, defensive liabilities hurt a team the least in left field.

That reminds me. He cost us a run tonight after letting pence go from 2nd to third by spening his time counting the pebbles in the left field corner and subsequently made it possible for Pence to score on a lot of possibilities of balls from third.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 01:04 AM
Trying to confuse the facts here?

Adam Dunn has 8% more "RBI opportunities" than Phillips. Dunn has 23% more RBI than Phillips. So that means Phillips' RBI rate is better than Dunn's? Not hardly.

Nowhere did I state that Phillips produces RBI better than Dunn. Not a single place. I said that Phillips had the second most RBI chances.


You are also being misleading when you only include RBI with RISP. As we all know a runner doesn't have to be in scoring position to be driven in. In fact this makes Dunn's RBI stats even more impressive because he doesn't rely on other people to get in scoring position before driving them in. He can drive in runners from 1st base and he often drives himself in from home plate by hitting a home run.

Nope, my numbers were based on at bats with at least 1 runner on base, regardless of where he was standing. Edwin and Griffey both over the last 3 seasons drove in a higher percentage of runners when given at least 1 runner on base.


Why do so many people want to discount the RBI a guy gets for driving himself in on a home run? That is the most valuable RBI of all. Dunn doesn't rely on other people to drive him in to score. He drives himself in. That is why Dunn also leads the Reds in runs scored every year in addition to leading the team in RBIs.
No RBI is more valuable than any other. They all count the same. Dunn leads the team in runs scored every year because he is a high on base guy and plays more than everyone on the team.


The reason guys like Encarnacion and Hatteberg etc. don't get as many RBI opportunities as Dunn is because they aren't nearly as talented as Dunn. If you aren't good enough to be a full-time player then you won't get as many chances obviously.
You honestly cant be serious. Hatteberg I will give you, is not a full time player. Edwin though, doesn't get as many RBI chances because of where he hits in the line up.... all over the place depending on where the moron of a manager we have decides to bat him that day. Regardless of that fact, Edwin still drives in a higher percentage runs with runners on base than does Adam Dunn.


Another factor you neglect to mention is how often Dunn gets pitched around with RISP. Pitchers don't give him good pitches to hit when the game is on the line. They would rather take their chances against the chumps hitting behind him.
Yeah, those 245 strikeouts really tell me he gets pitched around. Edwin, Griffey, Dunn.... they all have improved walk rates when someone is on base compared to when no one is on base.



It is a proven fact that Dunn is the best run producer on the Reds every year. Trying to argue against that fact will not succeed.

Except I have shown you that he isn't. He gets more chances than everyone, but he doesn't drive in runs at as high of rates as Griffey or Edwin have. You are trying to argue against that fact and its not working.

AtomicDumpling
05-09-2007, 01:38 AM
Wow. Talk about a load of misleading garbage.

It is obviously much harder to drive in a runner from 1st than from third, so if you have a guy that can accomplish the more difficult feat it is obviously more desirable to have him on the team than a slap-hitter like Hatteberg. So why do you disregard the RBIs Dunn gets in those situations? Dishonest.

I suppose your excuse for why Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored every year is because he has benefited from an inordinate number of run-scoring opportunities? LOL

Dunn scores a lot of runs because he gets on base often and he hits for power. He gets a lot of RBIs because he gets a lot of extra-base hits. It is pretty simple really.

The fact of the matter is that Dunn puts more runs on the scoreboard than any other Red every year. You still have not come close to proving this wrong. You just keep spewing meaningless drivel to obfuscate and distract the reader from the fact that Dunn has been the Reds' best player for years.

1. Dunn has led the team in runs scored every year since 2003.
2. Dunn has led the team in RBIs every year since 2004.
3. Most years he has led both categories by wide margins.
4. He leads both categories again this year as well.

No matter what garbage stats or excuses you come up with you absolutely cannot change the fact that Dunn did those things.

To say that Dunn is not the Reds best player is just downright ridiculous given those facts.

CTA513
05-09-2007, 01:41 AM
Trade him for Chris Denorfia.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 02:07 AM
Wow. Talk about a load of misleading garbage.

It is obviously much harder to drive in a runner from 1st than from third, so if you have a guy that can accomplish the more difficult feat it is obviously more desirable to have him on the team than a slap-hitter like Hatteberg. So why do you disregard the RBIs Dunn gets in those situations? Dishonest.

I hope you aren't directing that at me, because I never once brought up Hatteberg as a better run producer.



I suppose your excuse for why Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored every year is because he has benefited from an inordinate number of run-scoring opportunities? LOL
Again, not directed at me I hope because I already explained why Dunn leads the team in runs scored every year, but I will say it again. He is a good on base guy and he plays more games than everyone else that puts on a Reds uniform.



Dunn scores a lot of runs because he gets on base often and he hits for power. He gets a lot of RBIs because he gets a lot of extra-base hits. It is pretty simple really.
He gets a lot of RBI, if you want to count what he gets as a lot, which I dont compared to other hitters with 40 HR, becuase he has a ton of chances and he has a very good slugging percentage. Slugging percentage = better chance to drive in runs.



The fact of the matter is that Dunn puts more runs on the scoreboard than any other Red every year. You still have not come close to proving this wrong. You just keep spewing meaningless drivel to obfuscate and distract the reader from the fact that Dunn has been the Reds' best player for years.
Just because you cant comprehend what I say does not make it meaningless drivel. I have shown you time and time again that both Griffey and Edwin Encarnacion drive in a higher percentage of runners that are on base when they step to the plate than Adam Dunn. Not sure how hard that concept is to grasp. Dunn may have been the Reds best HITTER for years.... but I will not say he has been the best player. His defense is horrible and it certainly takes away from his overall ability.



1. Dunn has led the team in runs scored every year since 2003.
2. Dunn has led the team in RBIs every year since 2004.
3. Most years he has led both categories by wide margins.
4. He leads both categories again this year as well.

1. Never said he didnt.
2. Never said he didnt.
3. Yep.
4. Sure does.



No matter what garbage stats or excuses you come up with you absolutely cannot change the fact that Dunn did those things.

To say that Dunn is not the Reds best player is just downright ridiculous given those facts.

RBI's per at bat with runners on base is a garbage stat? If thats the case we may as well toss RBI out completely then. Runs too. They are both VERY dependant on what other hitters do around you. I have shown you time and time again that two hitters on the Reds drive in runs at a higher rate than Adam Dunn, just that Adam Dunn gets more chances and therefore gets more overall RBI's. You cant argue that fact. Yes, Adam Dunn has more RBI than both Edwin or Griffey over the last 3 years. But Yes again Adam Dunn produces them at a lower ratio per at bat with a runner on base than both of them.

Baseball is much more than offense. Last season according the PMR system estimates that Adam Dunn cost the Reds 21 outs that an average left fielder would have made. That is a ton of outs, and probably quite a few runs he cost the Reds in the field last season. So no, not in my opinion is Adam Dunn the Reds best player, especially this season. Both Griffey and Hamilton are having much better seasons than is Adam Dunn.

AmarilloRed
05-09-2007, 02:10 AM
I started this thread, so I'll say something. Dunn seems to have improved himself in the offseason. He is hitting above .270 and now trys to go the other way if he cant hit home runs. He has become a better player and I would pick up his option if he continues to have a good season. If he reverts to his old ways, Dunns option can always be declined and he knows this. We have no need to sign him to a long contract until the mid-point of next season. Lets see how he does this year and then we can decide what to do about his option.

AtomicDumpling
05-09-2007, 02:32 AM
I started this thread, so I'll say something. Dunn seems to have improved himself in the offseason. He is hitting above .270 and now trys to go the other way if he cant hit home runs. He has become a better player and I would pick up his option if he continues to have a good season. If he reverts to his old ways, Dunns option can always be declined and he knows this. We have no need to sign him to a long contract until the mid-point of next season. Lets see how he does this year and then we can decide what to do about his option.

I agree with you Amarillo. We just can't afford to let him go, despite what the haters say.

As we have seen on this thread there are many people that refuse to acknowledge his accomplishments. They will dig deep to find some absurd reason to denigrate his contributions. It is impossible to talk any sense into them.

I would imagine Dunn would love to see the Reds not pick up his option. He would make lots more than $13 million next season as a free agent on the open market.

If he goes somewhere else he would also gain the advantage of getting to hit against our pitchers! I am sure that would be enticing for him too.

It is really a competency test for the Reds' front office. Krivsky has made some very smart decisions and some very stupid decisions. This decision will make or break him.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 02:51 AM
He would make lots more than $13 million next season as a free agent on the open market.

I agree with that statement and that is why I don't think the Reds should resign him. That is too much money to pay Adam Dunn for as flawed as his game is. He is a good player, heck a very good player, but he isnt worth the 14 or 15 million a year he will be asking/getting to a team like the Reds who have a limited budget.

sonny
05-09-2007, 02:53 AM
I agree with that statement and that is why I don't think the Reds should resign him. That is too much money to pay Adam Dunn for as flawed as his game is. He is a good player, heck a very good player, but he isnt worth the 14 or 15 million a year he will be asking/getting to a team like the Reds who have a limited budget.

I'm with you on this. Is it worth spending the 13 mil just so other teams can't give him more? His bat may come back to haunt us, but his strikeouts will come to bless us.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 02:58 AM
I'm with you on this. Is it worth spending the 13 mil just so other teams can't give him more? His bat may come back to haunt us, but his strikeouts will come to bless us.

I could really care less about his strikeouts. Its his defense that makes him an incomplete player.

AtomicDumpling
05-09-2007, 03:00 AM
I agree with that statement and that is why I don't think the Reds should resign him. That is too much money to pay Adam Dunn for as flawed as his game is. He is a good player, heck a very good player, but he isnt worth the 14 or 15 million a year he will be asking/getting to a team like the Reds who have a limited budget.

Well, there is where we disagree my friend. :)

I think the Reds can afford it. I think they must afford it.

If the Reds are forced to unload their best player simply because they don't want to pay him then it would be very disappointing. If they are serious about winning the World Series they will find a way to increase the payroll.

Have the Reds ever let their best player walk away because they didn't want to pay him? I know they have traded some players to slash payroll, but I can't think of an instance where they ditched their best player purely to shed the salary. I think Castellini's competitiveness and pride will force him to put up the money.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 03:11 AM
Well, there is where we disagree my friend. :)

I think the Reds can afford it. I think they must afford it.

If the Reds are forced to unload their best player simply because they don't want to pay him then it would be very disappointing. If they are serious about winning the World Series they will find a way to increase the payroll.

Have the Reds ever let their best player walk away because they didn't want to pay him? I know they have traded some players to slash payroll, but I can't think of an instance where they ditched their best player purely to shed the salary. I think Castellini's competitiveness and pride will force him to put up the money.

The fact that we disagree that Dunn is or isnt the best player is completely irrelevent to what I am saying. Its not that they don't want to pay him, its that it probably isn't smart to pay him 14 or 15 million a year to do what he does. The guys that make 14 million or more this season are Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Todd Helton, Barry Bonds, Richie Sexson, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Carlos Delgado, Vlad Guerrero, JD Drew and Andruw Jones..... Dunn is not really in that class of hitter, much less in that class of overall player. Sure Sexson and Abreu really dont fit in there either but all of those players are in much larger markets than we are except maybe Helton, who is a much better hitter than Dunn is. I don't think the Reds would not resign him to 'shed' salary as much as they would not resign Dunn because he is going to get too much money for too long of a time to do what he does and in our market place, it does not make sense to overpay someone.

AtomicDumpling
05-09-2007, 03:43 AM
Mark my words that Adam Dunn will make at least $14 million in 2009. The market determines the amount a player is worth, not you. Factoring in the way salaries escalate every year it would not be surprising if Dunn makes $20 million per year if his level of production continues through next year. So giving Dunn 14-15 million per year will definitely not be overpaying him. It will be a bargain really.

Incidentally, Dunn is better than several players on that list. His offensive production exceeds that of Giambi, Sexson, Abreu and Drew. Several of those players are also worse than Dunn defensively.

The Reds can either decide to pay the salaries that are required to have a competitive team or they can decide to be perpetual losers like the Devil Rays. Castellini is not a clueless cheapskate like Lindner and Schott were. He will put up the cash when the time is right to make a run at the World Series.

dougdirt
05-09-2007, 11:31 AM
Mark my words that Adam Dunn will make at least $14 million in 2009. The market determines the amount a player is worth, not you. Factoring in the way salaries escalate every year it would not be surprising if Dunn makes $20 million per year if his level of production continues through next year. So giving Dunn 14-15 million per year will definitely not be overpaying him. It will be a bargain really.

Incidentally, Dunn is better than several players on that list. His offensive production exceeds that of Giambi, Sexson, Abreu and Drew. Several of those players are also worse than Dunn defensively.

The Reds can either decide to pay the salaries that are required to have a competitive team or they can decide to be perpetual losers like the Devil Rays. Castellini is not a clueless cheapskate like Lindner and Schott were. He will put up the cash when the time is right to make a run at the World Series.

The market does not determine what a player is worth, stupid teams overpay guys all the time. See Chan Ho Park, Mike Hampton, Eric Milton......

Dunn is not better than Giambi. Giambi has a better OBP and SLG than Dunn every year but 2004 when he had the thyroid problem. JD Drew.... personal preference here, but he is a complete hitter. .285/.392/.508 for a perfectly even .900 Career OPS. This season Dunn is better, but up to that point in their careers, when healthy I would take JD Drew. Nearly as good of a hitter and a much better defensive player.

Adam Dunn makes this team competitive, but my thing about not resigning him is that I think we could take 14-15 million a year and get better production out of it than by giving it to Adam Dunn. Probably not by signing 1 player, but maybe getting a solid defensive guy in LF who hits 265-280 with 25-30 HR for 8-9 million a year, then spending the rest elsewhere and improving the team in that area.