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Stingray
05-07-2007, 12:27 AM
The Reds are & will continue to be a farm team for the big market teams(baseball economics guarantee it) but I think it’s possible for the “farm team” to compete with and even beat the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. It can’t be done, however, in my opinion, by playing by the large market rules. For example, there are posters who’d trade a Bruce or a Bailey for a quick fix(a proven closer or #3 starter or a a RH bat). That approach is great for a large market team for several reasons - the acquisition might mean a World Series, the prospect can easily be replaced by an expensive FA in the offseason, and if the acquisition flames his salary will in no way hamstring the large market team. None of these facts apply to the Reds – A quick fix is very unlikely to be enough for the Reds to get to the Series.

The key for the Reds is to build and nurture a first class farm system(put our resources into scouting instead of FAs) – there is no other way unless they capture lightning in a bottle(Hamilton could be one) repeatedly. Fortunately the Reds, again in my opinion, have a great start to such a farm system. They have at least six pitching prospects as good, or better, than any we’ve had since Gullet and at least two or three position prospects in the class of Dunn and Kearns when they were in the minors. In addition there are several others who could still develop into quality prospects.

The Reds also have to be willing to let their star players go when they’ve reached a salary level a small market team can’t afford. The key here is to trade them, near their peak, to the big teams for star prospects. That means that Dunn probably cannot be retained past his option year unless he’s willing to sign well below market(which seems unlikely). I like griffey and admire his willingness to sign here below market value but if the Reds are out of the race at the trade deadline and a contender is willing to give up a top AA or AAA prospect for him, I think you have to do it.

With great scouting(majors, minors, and worldwide) leading to great drafting and acquisitions I believe the Reds can be a farm team for the big guys and still be a winner. Furthermore, if they follow this approach, I think the Reds(with their current core and minor leaque system) can be a serious contender no later than 2009

Dracodave
05-07-2007, 12:31 AM
I am gonna quote myself because your post just reflected what I had to say about spinning players guys like Lidge, Cabrera etc.


And Im suggeting that Dunn doesn't net you the prospects even with Edwin added to get into a conversation about Cabrera. Everyone here has problems with Dunn. Obvious his level of play (walking and homerun hitting) and his level of (or lack there of) defense hampers his value. Oddly, he's only worth it to a American League team using that train of though (as a very good DH)

Now what American league team trade for Dunn? Well, good question.

And foremost better question..

Why not trade Dunn for said prospects and just keep them and Edwin making us the better team?

Think of our problems more than just "Edwin sucks, so lets trade him and Dunn for Miggy! Lets ignore the lack of depth in our minors!"

hebroncougar
05-07-2007, 12:31 AM
The Reds are & will continue to be a farm team for the big market teams(baseball economics guarantee it) but I think it’s possible for the “farm team” to compete with and even beat the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. It can’t be done, however, in my opinion, by playing by the large market rules. For example, there are posters who’d trade a Bruce or a Bailey for a quick fix(a proven closer or #3 starter or a a RH bat). That approach is great for a large market team for several reasons - the acquisition might mean a World Series, the prospect can easily be replaced by an expensive FA in the offseason, and if the acquisition flames his salary will in no way hamstring the large market team. None of these facts apply to the Reds – A quick fix is very unlikely to be enough for the Reds to get to the Series.

The key for the Reds is to build and nurture a first class farm system(put our resources into scouting instead of FAs) – there is no other way unless they capture lightning in a bottle(Hamilton could be one) repeatedly. Fortunately the Reds, again in my opinion, have a great start to such a farm system. They have at least six pitching prospects as good, or better, than any we’ve had since Gullet and at least two or three position prospects in the class of Dunn and Kearns when they were in the minors. In addition there are several others who could still develop into quality prospects.

The Reds also have to be willing to let their star players go when they’ve reached a salary level a small market team can’t afford. The key here is to trade them, near their peak, to the big teams for star prospects. That means that Dunn probably cannot be retained past his option year unless he’s willing to sign well below market(which seems unlikely). I like griffey and admire his willingness to sign here below market value but if the Reds are out of the race at the trade deadline and a contender is willing to give up a top AA or AAA prospect for him, I think you have to do it.

With great scouting(majors, minors, and worldwide) leading to great drafting and acquisitions I believe the Reds can be a farm team for the big guys and still be a winner. Furthermore, if they follow this approach, I think the Reds can be a serious contender no later than 2009

Agree to a point..........but if Castellini is willing to bump the payroll up to lets say $80 million (not too far fetched imo), then you can afford some high priced players (Harang, Arroyo, and a couple of bats), especially with Milton and Griffey coming off the books in the next couple of years. You are going to have a window with Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey where you could have 3 very, very good SP's if Bailey can develop and be ready to get his feet wet next year, and be real good the following. That gives you at least 2 years with those 3 pitchers.

Dracodave
05-07-2007, 12:33 AM
Agree to a point..........but if Castellini is willing to bump the payroll up to lets say $80 million (not too far fetched imo), then you can afford some high priced players (Harang, Arroyo, and a couple of bats), especially with Milton and Griffey coming off the books in the next couple of years.

Or you can do this like Beane and avoid those contracts by trading them in for younger players who project to be just as good and sign them long term. Repeat process.

Spinning Mulder for Haren..get my drift?

Or we can bump pay roll and sign a bunch of free-agent carreer year wonders..and be right where we are at. They come here and suck. We are stuck eating a contract.

rotnoid
05-07-2007, 12:36 AM
Agree to a point..........but if Castellini is willing to bump the payroll up to lets say $80 million (not too far fetched imo), then you can afford some high priced players (Harang, Arroyo, and a couple of bats), especially with Milton and Griffey coming off the books in the next couple of years. You are going to have a window with Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey where you could have 3 very, very good SP's if Bailey can develop and be ready to get his feet wet next year, and be real good the following. That gives you at least 2 years with those 3 pitchers.

Right, so it's a mix of both strategies, while you have to spin certain players at the right time, you still hang on to guys that make up your core. The Twins have been able to do this extremely well, so far. We'll see what happens with Hunter and Santana. Even if they let Hunter walk, it's still not a sign they've become a AAAA team for the big dogs (he's an aging CF with declining skills). While I agree that a strong farm system will get you close, it's not going to produce all the pieces. At some point, you have to spend the extra 8-10 million to add that last bit, whatever it may be.

Stingray
05-07-2007, 12:37 AM
Or you can do this like Beane and avoid those contracts by trading them in for younger players who project to be just as good and sign them long term. Repeat process.

Spinning Mulder for Haren..get my drift?

Or we can bump pay roll and sign a bunch of free-agent carreer year wonders..and be right where we are at. They come here and suck. We are stuck eating a contract.


Agreed, you made my point in a couple hundred fewer words.

Stingray
05-07-2007, 12:47 AM
Right, so it's a mix of both strategies, while you have to spin certain players at the right time, you still hang on to guys that make up your core. The Twins have been able to do this extremely well, so far. We'll see what happens with Hunter and Santana. Even if they let Hunter walk, it's still not a sign they've become a AAAA team for the big dogs (he's an aging CF with declining skills). While I agree that a strong farm system will get you close, it's not going to produce all the pieces. At some point, you have to spend the extra 8-10 million to add that last bit, whatever it may be.


I also agree with your point but it should be done with exterme care(maybe a catcher if he's the one missing link your farm system can't fill). The Reds can't afford $10-15M/year mistakes - see Eric Milton. I can even see retaining Dunn for 2 or 3 years at a reasonable cost if the teams feels he's the one piece needed to go over the top., but, I would never trade prize prospects(Bruce, Bailey) for less tha a "kings ransom." I also wouldn't mortage the next five years for an outside chance in the present.

REDREAD
05-07-2007, 12:55 AM
You need to use all avenues to increase your talent base. Even the A's spend big bucks on the free agent market. It doesn't always work, but for example, they gave big bucks to Lozia and Piazzia as free agents.

Chad Bradford would've been an awesome free agent signing for us this past winter, for example.

Another example.. The Yanks signed Sheffield as a free agent, got 2 or 3 years use out of him and then flipped him for prospects.

The key is to sign good free agents that will be desirable and tradable.
ie. Stanton, Weathers, Gonzo are bad examples of this. None of them would bring more than a yawn from other GMs next year.

Wayne had a ton of money available to reshape this team and just flat out blew it. Worse still, he locked himself into a lot of guys for 2008 as well. Let's hope he learns from his mistakes.

Oh, and another great way to add talent to a team is to trade for a guy that is arbitration eligible from another small market that is too cheap to pay for him. They are often given away for pennies on a dollar. The Reds under Linder were the ones giving away players. Maybe under Cast, we can pick up some of these type of guys. They are often more cost effective than free agents.

Dracodave
05-07-2007, 01:07 AM
Oh, and another great way to add talent to a team is to trade for a guy that is arbitration eligible from another small market that is too cheap to pay for him. They are often given away for pennies on a dollar. The Reds under Linder were the ones giving away players. Maybe under Cast, we can pick up some of these type of guys. They are often more cost effective than free agents.

For a great example to that statement about Oakland though.
Cust/Doyle/Deno. Three PTBNL and cash, just netted a ton of OBP from a DH and two outfielder.

Stingray
05-07-2007, 01:18 AM
For a great example to that statement about Oakland though.
Cust/Doyle/Deno. Three PTBNL and cash, just netted a ton of OBP from a DH and two outfielder.


I think the Deno trade was a good one for the Reds and is consistent with the approach I'm suggesting. They acquired a young high ceiling prospect for a guy who can't play this year and probably couldn't break into the Reds starting OF in the future(Griffey, Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce, Stubbs, Freel) even if he recovers completely.

Redsland
05-07-2007, 12:01 PM
The Reds are & will continue to be a farm team for the big market teams…
Since when?

LaRue was farmed to Kansas City. Casey was farmed to the Pirates. Cody Ross went to Florida. Deno went to Oakland.

I can't think of a single prospect the Reds developed only to have Krivsky ship him off to a big-market team, with the single exception of Wily Mo, and I've been thrilled with that trade.

storrs19
05-07-2007, 12:07 PM
The key to trades is getting young people. Now I am just playing devil's advocate here but if you were to trade say a Homer Bailey for a Jon Papelbon that would not be as bad as what the Reds usually do which is trade for players who are well past their prime (Royce Clayton and Mike Stanton come to mind).

Mind you I am not saying to trade Bailey as he is our future but we can not hope to compete by continuing to get older players who have been everywhere it seems. In the end the payroll will need to be raised some, although like I said it amazes me what teams like the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins and Brewers do with the same amount of money or less. Case in point, The Diamondbacks have almost the exact same payroll as we do ($60 million) yet they won a World Series in 2001.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
05-07-2007, 12:27 PM
You need to use all avenues to increase your talent base. Even the A's spend big bucks on the free agent market. It doesn't always work, but for example, they gave big bucks to Lozia and Piazzia as free agents.

Chad Bradford would've been an awesome free agent signing for us this past winter, for example.

Another example.. The Yanks signed Sheffield as a free agent, got 2 or 3 years use out of him and then flipped him for prospects.

The key is to sign good free agents that will be desirable and tradable.
ie. Stanton, Weathers, Gonzo are bad examples of this. None of them would bring more than a yawn from other GMs next year.

Wayne had a ton of money available to reshape this team and just flat out blew it. Worse still, he locked himself into a lot of guys for 2008 as well. Let's hope he learns from his mistakes.

Oh, and another great way to add talent to a team is to trade for a guy that is arbitration eligible from another small market that is too cheap to pay for him. They are often given away for pennies on a dollar. The Reds under Linder were the ones giving away players. Maybe under Cast, we can pick up some of these type of guys. They are often more cost effective than free agents.
If Gonzo keeps hitting like he has been, or even somewhat close to what he has been I think you'd get alot more than a yawn. He is among the top 6 ss stat wise in the national league in most categories.

bucksfan2
05-07-2007, 12:31 PM
In order for the reds to compete they need to make smart baseball decisions. The major thing I think the reds didn't do over the past 5-10 years is realize who they were. You have to honestly assess your club, where it is, where it can be, and in what direction you are heading. For the past 6 years the reds brass though they have a team who could in the division when in reality they were a less than average baseball team. The biggest keys to the reds future success are good talent evaulation, development, and knowing when to trade a player. The reds need to know when a season is lost and get the most value out of the players currently on the roster.

The reds are doing a better job at scouting and development. They are building a strong farm system and they may finally have some impact players making their way up to the bigs. They have done an excellent job of scouting players and nabbing them while they were cheap. The likes of Phillips, Hamilton, Ross, and Arroyo are all now worth more than what they were picked up for. Right now I think the franchise is picking up spare parts until they are ready for a minor league infusion of talent that will help jump start this organizatoin. It is not an immediate process, which is what the previous managment wanted, rather a slower process that does take time to develop.

coachw513
05-07-2007, 02:44 PM
The key is to sign good free agents that will be desirable and tradable.
ie. Stanton, Weathers, Gonzo are bad examples of this. None of them would bring more than a yawn from other GMs next year.

Gonzo???...a great financial value for a guy who is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball and adds some power (yes, I recognize the start this year is above his mean)???...sounds like precisely the type piece a near-contender would pick up if we were dangled the right prospects, IMHO...

Stingray
05-07-2007, 06:20 PM
Since when?

LaRue was farmed to Kansas City. Casey was farmed to the Pirates. Cody Ross went to Florida. Deno went to Oakland.

I can't think of a single prospect the Reds developed only to have Krivsky ship him off to a big-market team, with the single exception of Wily Mo, and I've been thrilled with that trade.

The Reds haven't had any elite players(Dunn?) become FAs in quite a while. When they do the big market teams will be waiting. In other words we've been a poor farm team for quite a while. I see that changing.

Redsland
05-07-2007, 06:39 PM
In other words we've been a poor farm team for quite a while.
I'm trying to think of some former Reds who I wish we'd never gotten rid of, and I'm not coming up with much.

The notion that we've been the Royals or the Brewers and developing young players that thrive for other, bigger market teams is absurd.

Casey, LaRue, and Denorfia went to small and mid-market clubs. And of that group, only Deno can really be called a prospect.

Randa? Aurilia? Were they prospects? Ramon Ortiz sure wasn't. Ditto Dave Williams.

Instead, it seems to me that the Reds have tended to hold on to players much too long, like Casey and Graves and Haynes and Wilson and Boone, or that they cut and run at just the right time, like with Vaughn and Taubensee and Williamson and Sullivan and Reese. I think that'll happen again, as the Reds decline to exercise Junior's option after next year, while at the same time getting LTC value out of Harang and Arroyo. Between now and then, there isn't a single Reds player I'm worried about losing because of dollars.

redsfanmia
05-07-2007, 07:23 PM
I'm trying to think of some former Reds who I wish we'd never gotten rid of, and I'm not coming up with much.



Instead, it seems to me that the Reds have tended to hold on to players much too long, like Casey and Graves and Haynes and Wilson and Boone, or that they cut and run at just the right time, like with Vaughn and Taubensee and Williamson and Sullivan and Reese. I think that'll happen again, as the Reds decline to exercise Junior's option after next year, while at the same time getting LTC value out of Harang and Arroyo. Between now and then, there isn't a single Reds player I'm worried about losing because of dollars.

I think you should add Dunn to the list of players the Reds have held on to too long. Dunn's peak value was 2 to 3 years ago before the big money came along. Dunn at 5 million is great, Dunn at 10+ million I'm not so sure about.

Stingray
05-07-2007, 08:37 PM
I'm trying to think of some former Reds who I wish we'd never gotten rid of, and I'm not coming up with much.

The notion that we've been the Royals or the Brewers and developing young players that thrive for other, bigger market teams is absurd.

Casey, LaRue, and Denorfia went to small and mid-market clubs. And of that group, only Deno can really be called a prospect.

Randa? Aurilia? Were they prospects? Ramon Ortiz sure wasn't. Ditto Dave Williams.
Instead, it seems to me that the Reds have tended to hold on to players much too long, like Casey and Graves and Haynes and Wilson and Boone, or that they cut and run at just the right time, like with Vaughn and Taubensee and Williamson and Sullivan and Reese. I think that'll happen again, as the Reds decline to exercise Junior's option after next year, while at the same time getting LTC value out of Harang and Arroyo. Between now and then, there isn't a single Reds player I'm worried about losing because of dollars.


We did hold on to those players too long but none of them were elite players the big market teams wanted. That could be changing Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, EE, Phillips, Hamilton, Bailey, Bruce, and maybe even Loshe and Belise could fall in that class, starting as early as next year and all w/i the next 7-8 years.

My use of the term "farm team" is intended to illustrate the fact that if and when we develop elite players they'll go to the large market teams once they become FAs(and worth $20/yr to the big teams).

\

Redsland
05-08-2007, 11:08 AM
…none of them were elite players the big market teams wanted. That could be changing…starting as early as next year…

…if and when we develop elite players they'll go to the large market teams once they become FAs…

In other words we've been a poor farm team for quite a while.
So if we develop talent and we choose to let them become free agents, then we'll become a big-market farm club, just like we've been for quite a while?

Got it.

westofyou
05-08-2007, 11:13 AM
My use of the term "farm team" is intended to illustrate the fact that if and when we develop elite players they'll go to the large market teams once they become FAs(and worth $20/yr to the big teams).

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.