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View Full Version : Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?



RedEye
05-07-2007, 07:50 PM
So I'm sitting here watching the Reds, and A-Gon just hit another one out. Obviously, I'd love to see this continue, but a quick scan of his statistical history suggests that he is a streaky hitter who sits at around .300 OBP at the end of the day. He has shown a bit of pop in the past, and my guess is that GABP is a good fit for him and might accentuate his power a little. So here are a few questions for all of you:

Do we have any reason to believe this could be Alex's career year?
If so, what has changed to make him better?
If not, do you expect him to regress back to his career norms?

There's no question his D is already making him a valuable player. I'm just curious whether people think his O could be for real. I'm skeptical, but hope springs eternal.

reds44
05-07-2007, 07:52 PM
GABP will inflate his numbers some.

Ltlabner
05-07-2007, 07:58 PM
So I'm sitting here watching the Reds, and A-Gon just hit another one out. Obviously, I'd love to see this continue, but a quick scan of his statistical history suggests that he is a streaky hitter who sits at around .300 OBP at the end of the day. He has shown a bit of pop in the past, and my guess is that GABP is a good fit for him and might accentuate his power a little. So here are a few questions for all of you:

Do we have any reason to believe this could be Alex's career year?
If so, what has changed to make him better?
If not, do you expect him to regress back to his career norms?

There's no question his D is already making him a valuable player. I'm just curious whether people think his O could be for real. I'm skeptical, but hope springs eternal.

You are right, his history suggests that he will be a streaky player so you can't count on this hot streak lasting an entire season. I think the GABP effect helps out, plus he has some pop so it's not supring that he's been a sink or swim kinda guy.

That said, I hope those who don't care for the Gonzo singing can enjoy this nice suprise instead of quickly dimissing it as "just a hot flash".

Joseph
05-07-2007, 07:59 PM
and he has hit 20-something hrs in the past, not sure he can again, but its possible as is higher OBP.

redsmetz
05-07-2007, 08:26 PM
Since he's signed to a three year deal and if GABP will help with his power numbers, why should only this year be the proverbial "career year"? I wonder, too, about a comment Narron made when talking about batting Gonzo higher in the order. Narron pondered how much Gonzalez batted 8th in his career and how that can affect you numbers, particularly in the NL.

I think someone else noted this, but we don't need a tremendous amount of offensive production from Gonzalez if he's performing at peak defensively. That would be gravy.

The_jbh
05-07-2007, 09:18 PM
i expect him to hit .250 .330 25 HRS in GABP

with gold glove defense thats plenty adequate

TC81190
05-07-2007, 09:25 PM
i expect him to hit .250 .330 25 HRS in GABP

with gold glove defense thats plenty adequate

He'd SLG about .417 by by calculations. Thatd be decent for a SS.

blumj
05-07-2007, 09:36 PM
He'll need to hit for a higher average than .250 to pull off a .330 OBP, though. Somewhere around .260-.270 might get him in the neighborhood, but he just doesn't walk much.

RedEye
05-07-2007, 10:02 PM
I think someone else noted this, but we don't need a tremendous amount of offensive production from Gonzalez if he's performing at peak defensively. That would be gravy.

I noted it, but I'm not sure I agree. As a D-only player, I think he's overpriced. If he could add a modicum of offense to go along with it, I'd feel a lot better about that $14 million / 3 year contract.

RedEye
05-07-2007, 10:03 PM
BTW, he just made it interesting in the 9th against Houston with his 7th HR, 2nd of the game! At this rate, he'll definitely be worth the price tag!

Bobcat J
05-07-2007, 10:06 PM
GABP will inflate his numbers some.

Even if GABP inflates his numbers, he is still eventually going to fall back to earth pretty hard. The guy's career OPS in .691 but he is OPSing at .930 for the season. I am enjoying his hot streak, but he's going to regress at some point.

mth123
05-07-2007, 10:06 PM
I'm amazed. If he can continue to slug he'll be very valuable. I was on the fence to against this move, but it looks pretty good I admit.

jojo
05-07-2007, 10:36 PM
For what it's worth, an average of the 5 big projection systems suggets AGlove will do this in '07: .282/.339/.463.......

edabbs44
05-07-2007, 10:40 PM
If this team keeps playing the way they are playing, then whatever Gonzalez does doesn't really matter. Give me Ws any day.

RedsMan3203
05-07-2007, 10:58 PM
buy low - sell high.

Team Clark
05-07-2007, 11:00 PM
and he has hit 20-something hrs in the past, not sure he can again, but its possible as is higher OBP.

I'd have to say he's got a nice head start in the right ballpark to do it. :evil:

TeamBoone
05-08-2007, 12:28 AM
Actually, most of his stats are better away than they are at home, so I guess we can dismiss the "GAB factor".



Season G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

Home 16 59 5 14 3 0 3 8 26 5 11 0 0 .303 .441 .237
Away 12 49 12 19 3 1 4 8 36 2 5 0 0 .423 .735 .388

HumnHilghtFreel
05-08-2007, 12:57 AM
Actually, most of his stats are better away than they are at home, so I guess we can dismiss the "GAB factor".

Well, he started his current hot streak on the road, IIRC, and it carried over to today in the form of 2 HR's, so I'd give it more than just a few games before dismissing anything.

AtomicDumpling
05-08-2007, 01:05 AM
I have been very pleasantly surprised by his offensive production that is for sure. I have absolutely no reason to expect it to continue since he has been horrible for years. Stranger things have happened though. We can always hope.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense though. At least not compared to his reputation. He is a good defensive player, but I have not seen anything to make me think he is a great defensive player like Narron and others claimed in the offseason. I think he does things in a flashy, dramatic fashion which can often trick people into thinking a player is better than he really is. Think of Jeter or Edmonds to get my meaning.

Some people said he was the best shortstop they had ever seen. Not by a longshot in my opinion.

Good -- but not great.

But as long as he keeps hitting I will be very happy about him being a Cincinnati Red.

jojo
05-08-2007, 06:34 AM
I have been very pleasantly surprised by his offensive production that is for sure. I have absolutely no reason to expect it to continue since he has been horrible for years. Stranger things have happened though. We can always hope.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense though. At least not compared to his reputation. He is a good defensive player, but I have not seen anything to make me think he is a great defensive player like Narron and others claimed in the offseason. I think he does things in a flashy, dramatic fashion which can often trick people into thinking a player is better than he really is. Think of Jeter or Edmonds to get my meaning.

Some people said he was the best shortstop they had ever seen. Not by a longshot in my opinion.

Good -- but not great.

But as long as he keeps hitting I will be very happy about him being a Cincinnati Red.

He won't win a GG as a Red but compared to Lopez, AGlove might be a 2.5 win upgrade... I've enjoyed watching him play shortstop so far...

Ltlabner
05-08-2007, 06:55 AM
I haven't been all that impressed with his defense though. At least not compared to his reputation. I think he does things in a flashy, dramatic fashion which can often trick people into thinking a player is better than he really is. Think of Jeter or Edmonds to get my meaning.

But as long as he keeps hitting I will be very happy about him being a Cincinnati Red.

Of course folks like Narron are going to say he's the best on the planet, but one quick review of some numbers shows you that he's exactly as you describe him, good solid defense, but not outstanding out of this world. I think that's been the typical stance on Gonzo on Redszone. I'm pretty pro-Gonzo, but fully recoginize that he's good but not HOF good.

Flashy? Are you kidding me. This guy is anti-flashy.

Your last sentence is interesting. When in the world did defense become so passe? There's been a number of folks on the board focus soley on offensive output and defense be dammed. I really don't understand that. Don't players spend 1/2 their time in the field and still have to throw and catch the ball?

jojo
05-08-2007, 07:10 AM
Of course folks like Narron are going to say he's the best on the planet, but one quick review of some numbers shows you that he's exactly as you describe him, good solid defense, but not outstanding out of this world. I think that's been the typical stance on Gonzo on Redszone. I'm pretty pro-Gonzo, but fully recoginize that he's good but not HOF good.

Flashy? Are you kidding me. This guy is anti-flashy.

Your last sentence is interesting. When in the world did defense become so passe? There's been a number of folks on the board focus soley on offensive output and defense be dammed. I really don't understand that. Don't players spend 1/2 their time in the field and still have to throw and catch the ball?

I agree 100%... defense is a very important part of valuing a player. It matters.

bucksfan2
05-08-2007, 08:50 AM
Why does Gonzo have to regress? Sure he is a streaky hitter but in the last few games he has hit the ball hard. This ball park will help but as long as he is hitting line drives he is going to be successful. I think if anything his defense is going to improve. He hasn't have a good first month or so on the defensive end. I think we can expect in the ballpark of a .280 average, 25 hrs and 80 rbi.

Redsland
05-08-2007, 10:27 AM
I have been very pleasantly surprised by his offensive production that is for sure.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense though. At least not compared to his reputation. He is a good defensive player, but I have not seen anything to make me think he is a great defensive player like Narron and others claimed in the offseason.

Some people said he was the best shortstop they had ever seen. Not by a longshot in my opinion.

Good -- but not great.
I agree 100%. He's made some great plays and botched some easy plays. He's far from being a defensive force or a future gold glover. But he's certainly better than what we had. And his stick has been nice.

membengal
05-08-2007, 10:35 AM
No complaints from me. His defense, as I suspected, while solid, isn't quite what Marty et al made it out to be. His stick, far from being the dreckful item it was made out to be, has been a plus so far.

All in all, a nice addition to the team.

RedEye
05-08-2007, 10:37 AM
Why does Gonzo have to regress? Sure he is a streaky hitter but in the last few games he has hit the ball hard. This ball park will help but as long as he is hitting line drives he is going to be successful. I think if anything his defense is going to improve. He hasn't have a good first month or so on the defensive end. I think we can expect in the ballpark of a .280 average, 25 hrs and 80 rbi.

He doesn't have to regress on offense, but all of his career numbers suggest that he will. A .280 batting average is possible, I suppose, but he would need to be very BABIP lucky to do that. My guess is his upside is around .260 with a .310 OBP and 25 HR. But I may be wrong. If he does that, IMO Wayne should dangle him for trades, because his value will never get higher.

membengal
05-08-2007, 10:38 AM
If he hits .260, with the .310 OBP and 25 homers, I would dance a jig.

BRM
05-08-2007, 10:44 AM
If he hits .260, with the .310 OBP and 25 homers, I would dance a jig.

Well, he's only topped .260 twice in his career and he's never hit 25 homers. 23 is his career high. He's put up better than a .310 OBP only two times as well. I'd dance a jig as well because if he does all that, it will be the best year of his career.

membengal
05-08-2007, 10:45 AM
Indeed.

Chip R
05-08-2007, 11:14 AM
I'm digging that OBP.

jojo
05-08-2007, 11:33 AM
Well, he's only topped .260 twice in his career and he's never hit 25 homers. 23 is his career high. He's put up better than a .310 OBP only two times as well. I'd dance a jig as well because if he does all that, it will be the best year of his career.

Pecota's weight mean was the downer in the big five projections: .256/.306/.421.

My eyes popped out a little when seeing the average of all five systems because Pecota's projection is much more in line with what I'd expect from AGlove. So far though, he's beating Pecota's 90th percentile.