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Krusty
05-14-2007, 08:47 AM
You heard it here first. The Reds, with Krivisky on the road trip, will acquire the closer from Houston and take on his contract because ownership wants to win and needs to sell tickets for the summer.

It might cost them Encarncion along with others. I do think Coffey will be going to the minors and we might be seeing the likes of Majewski and Bray very soon.

Anyways, when this goes down (like I said it is a prediction), you heard it here first.

membengal
05-14-2007, 08:58 AM
Lidge and Ensberg (he's out of favor there) for EE and ????....

It's not implausible, frankly.

Highlifeman21
05-14-2007, 09:41 AM
Lidge and Ensberg don't help this team this year, and won't contribute much more next year.

It would take EE + more than we can afford for both Lidge and Ensberg.

Build towards the future, don't try and put a band aid on 2007.

Royals Fan
05-14-2007, 09:43 AM
My thoughts are the Astros will not make any trades with the Reds unless it very minor one. You do not help your division opponet anytime. If Lidge or Ensgerg will be traded it will be with teams first in the American league who the Astros will not face unless meeting in the world series which is unlikely for them or to an NL club that is not an threat to the Astros.

Anyone remember any big trades between two teams in the same division. I for one cant right off hand but some one else could remember?

membengal
05-14-2007, 09:44 AM
Not saying your are wrong, highlife, but I am assuming the Reds may not agree with you. The trades I would like to see would amount to building for the future as well, but I don't think they will be. Assuming the Reds are not on that page, I can see them pursuing Lidge and Ensberg.

membengal
05-14-2007, 09:45 AM
Royals Fan, off the top of my head and with no research:

Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs from the Pirates

hebroncougar
05-14-2007, 09:52 AM
My thoughts are the Astros will not make any trades with the Reds unless it very minor one. You do not help your division opponet anytime. If Lidge or Ensgerg will be traded it will be with teams first in the American league who the Astros will not face unless meeting in the world series which is unlikely for them or to an NL club that is not an threat to the Astros.

Anyone remember any big trades between two teams in the same division. I for one cant right off hand but some one else could remember?

Not saying I would do the deal (though it is intriguing, I'd require a prospect as well), but they might to get Dunn to his hometown.

Royals Fan
05-14-2007, 09:52 AM
Your right there and dont recall if Ramirez was an FA after that year why the Bucs dealt him. Last big trade betwwen the Reds and Astros goes back to Joe Morgan trade.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2007, 09:54 AM
Lidge for Eddie would be a great deal. But it won't happen.

puca
05-14-2007, 10:28 AM
Your right there and dont recall if Ramirez was an FA after that year why the Bucs dealt him. Last big trade betwwen the Reds and Astros goes back to Joe Morgan trade.

Ramirez was in the 2nd year of a 3 year contract. He was traded because the Pirates didn't think he was good enough defensively and was expensive at 5 million a year. He was well on his way to making 33 errors for the second straight year. After being paired with a GG firstbaseman however, his error totals dropped to 10, 16, and 10 in 2004-2006. But the Pirates did get Bobby Hill in return.

Chip R
05-14-2007, 10:49 AM
Not saying I would do the deal (though it is intriguing, I'd require a prospect as well), but they might to get Dunn to his hometown.


Where's he going to play?

membengal
05-14-2007, 10:51 AM
No doubt. The Dunn to Houston stuff should be at an end based on this reality:

OF depth: Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Luke Scott, Jason Lane (with Chris Burke just EEd to AAA) with Lance Berkman at 1b. Houston has no need of Dunn, and no room for him.

paintmered
05-14-2007, 10:51 AM
Why is everyone so enamored with Lidge? He hasn't been effective for two years now.

membengal
05-14-2007, 10:53 AM
It's not that I am enamored with him per se, paintme, it's just that his problems seem to be all head-based, and his stuff remains electric. I guess the hope that a change of scenery might help the lambs stop screaming for him is not that far-fetched. It would be far from a sure thing, picking him up, that's for certain.

But he misses bats at a rate that is VERY unfamiliar to the rest of the Reds' pen...

hebroncougar
05-14-2007, 10:57 AM
Where's he going to play?

LF or RF with Lee playing the other. You'd play him over Scott, I would think.

Chip R
05-14-2007, 10:59 AM
LF or RF with Lee playing the other. You'd play him over Scott, I would think.


Riiight. Lee or Dunn are not right fielders.

corkedbat
05-14-2007, 11:01 AM
The CF being flamked by Lee and Dunn would be dead within two months. :D

jojo
05-14-2007, 11:32 AM
To me, the time to get a high K/9 reliever is when he's not about to be paid like he's a high K/9 closer....

Lidge is on the wrong side of the service time equation to be a long term answer for the Reds IMHO...

The Reds need to look for a Papelbon type...a youngster who's got good stuff but isn't now and won't be good enough to be a starter....

On a bright note, the Reds might have the Nasty boys v2.0 already in their system in McBeth and Cueto....

Falls City Beer
05-14-2007, 11:51 AM
On a bright note, the Reds might have the Nasty boys v2.0 already in their system in McBeth and Cueto....


I wouldn't say that just yet. I wouldn't say that at all. Let them do at the MLB level.

jojo
05-14-2007, 12:26 PM
I wouldn't say that just yet. I wouldn't say that at all. Let them do at the MLB level.

The Reds probably shouldn't even bother having pitchers in their farm system....

:cool:

I personally think building a pen based upon major league experience can lead to a pen that costs more than it should have to, some big mistakes and especially alot of missed opportunities...

Falls City Beer
05-14-2007, 12:42 PM
The Reds probably shouldn't even bother having pitchers in their farm system....

:cool:

I personally think building a pen based upon major league experience can lead to a pen that costs more than it should have to, some big mistakes and especially alot of missed opportunities...


You mean like the Braves' pen? :evil:

There are many ways to skin a cat. Very few teams actually build their bullpens whole-cloth from their farm systems. Most smart teams identify underachieving MLB performers (i.e. Braves with Soriano; Twins with Nathan) and then fill in the grout with stuff from their farms.

redsupport
05-14-2007, 12:43 PM
germano and moseley were let go but stanton is here

Chip R
05-14-2007, 12:50 PM
germano and moseley were let go but stanton is here


Very astute.

Shaggy Sanchez
05-14-2007, 01:02 PM
Why should the Reds trade for a closer when they don't have anyone to get them from the Starters to the closer. This team is more than a closer away from getting to the playoffs in my opinion. I wouldn't want to trade a quality young 3rd baseman when there is nothing to replace him with for a closer. Ryan Freel is not the answer at 3rd and after him there really isn't anyone else so then the question becomes who do you have to trade to get a quality 3rd baseman.

I also think the question of just how many games do we really think a good closer is going to help this team win has to be asked. The closer isn't going to help much in the 6th,7th,and 8th innings and he surely won't help the offensive and defensive dropoff you will get from trading EE. If Freel has to play 3rd everyday it will get ugly on both offense and defense not to mention if an OFer goes down and Freel is moved back to the OF than Castro becomes your everyday 3rd baseman. I don't think trading EE for a closer is a very good idea, but then again I don't really agree with trading for a closer unless you are ready to compete and in my eyes this team isn't ready for that yet.

The other part of this is Lidge and just how messed up he has been the last 2 years. I hope the guy can get his career back on track and all but I don't really see anyone in the Reds organization that can help it happen for him.

jojo
05-14-2007, 01:02 PM
You mean like the Braves' pen? :evil:

There are many ways to skin a cat. Very few teams actually build their bullpens whole-cloth from their farm systems. Most smart teams identify underachieving MLB performers (i.e. Braves with Soriano; Twins with Nathan) and then fill in the grout with stuff from their farms.

I'm not sure how Soriano could be described as underachiever. He was one of the best set up men in baseball last year and a very solid late reliever his whole career. The Braves stole him during the offseason. That's not really a viable long term strategy IMHO....

I never said the reds should build their pen strictly from their farm BTW. I've written quit a bit about building a pen since joining the zone and I've never advocated that approach. If anything, i've suggested that teams shouldn't have to pay alot in talent or money to build a good pen. My specific point in this thread was that I wouldn't discount talent simply because it hasn't proven itself in the majors yet. The Reds have some potential answers in their system-i wouldn't trade a ton and then invest alot of money in a guy like Lidge if there's a reasonable chance that something similar could be had for alot less.

BTW both the Ms and Twins had killer pens last season at the whopping costs of next to nothing using a similar approach as the one I advocate.

redsfanfalcon
05-14-2007, 01:43 PM
I'll say this again...why should we be worried about a closer when we can't get to the 9th inning with the lead?

Falls City Beer
05-14-2007, 01:46 PM
I'm not sure how Soriano could be described as underachiever. He was one of the best set up men in baseball last year and a very solid late reliever his whole career. The Braves stole him during the offseason. That's not really a viable long term strategy IMHO....

I never said the reds should build their pen strictly from their farm BTW. I've written quit a bit about building a pen since joining the zone and I've never advocated that approach. If anything, i've suggested that teams shouldn't have to pay alot in talent or money to build a good pen. My specific point in this thread was that I wouldn't discount talent simply because it hasn't proven itself in the majors yet. The Reds have some potential answers in their system-i wouldn't trade a ton and then invest alot of money in a guy like Lidge if there's a reasonable chance that something similar could be had for alot less.

BTW both the Ms and Twins had killer pens last season at the whopping costs of next to nothing using a similar approach as the one I advocate.


Everyone wants to build bullpens from their minor leaguers for cheap. That's the ideal. But that's not how a winning team operates--no matter how good a minor league system is, no MLB team will be able to count on it coming together at once. Thus it is important to build any bullpen of worth with a combination of farm kids and trades.

The trouble with doing nothing on the trade front for bullpen arms (and relying strictly on the youth movement) is that the vast majority of minor league arms fail. Ultimately, you have to sell other teams on a dream (your minor leaguers) for MLB bullpen arms; and be smart enough to preserve those good arms from your own farm to help when needed. There's not a team in the majors that doesn't take my approach as described above.

That approach is perfectly sustainable because the Braves, the Reds (of the past), the Twins, the Giants, the Padres, the Mets (to name a few) have all utilized that method in the last couple of decades to great success.

It's very smart to go out and grab a guy like Lidge whose value will be artificially depressed by metrics that don't matter much (ERA, for instance); yes, he costs a bit this season, but he's pretty much worth it. And he won't likely cost the Reds Wagner-esque money in the future.

(I was referring to Soriano as an underachiever as a starter).

savafan
05-14-2007, 01:49 PM
I'd focus my attention on Greinke out of KC. Bring him to the NL, and go with him as the long man out of the bullpen, and I start to like the look of the relief corps just a tid bit better.

ickey333
05-14-2007, 01:52 PM
And to piggy-back on FCB's comment, having a legit closer like Lidge (if he can return to form), would allow guys like Weathers to take a role that they are better suited for in the bullpen, which could help in getting us to the 9th inning and to more save situations. We saw a similar effect last year (albeit briefly) when Everyday "For about three weeks" Eddie took over the closer duties.

fearofpopvol1
05-14-2007, 01:56 PM
I think Lidge for EdE is worth examining for sure. My big concern with Lidge is his (future) contract.

Falls City Beer
05-14-2007, 01:58 PM
I think Lidge for EdE is worth examining for sure. My big concern with Lidge is his (future) contract.

It's a fair concern, but I'd guess it'll be manageable if they could sign him for 2-3 years.

Regardless, I doubt Houston trades him, and I wouldn't blame them.

jojo
05-14-2007, 02:41 PM
Everyone wants to build bullpens from their minor leaguers for cheap. That's the ideal. But that's not how a winning team operates--no matter how good a minor league system is, no MLB team will be able to count on it coming together at once. Thus it is important to build any bullpen of worth with a combination of farm kids and trades.

The trouble with doing nothing on the trade front for bullpen arms (and relying strictly on the youth movement) is that the vast majority of minor league arms fail. Ultimately, you have to sell other teams on a dream (your minor leaguers) for MLB bullpen arms; and be smart enough to preserve those good arms from your own farm to help when needed. There's not a team in the majors that doesn't take my approach as described above.

That approach is perfectly sustainable because the Braves, the Reds (of the past), the Twins, the Giants, the Padres, the Mets (to name a few) have all utilized that method in the last couple of decades to great success.

It's very smart to go out and grab a guy like Lidge whose value will be artificially depressed by metrics that don't matter much (ERA, for instance); yes, he costs a bit this season, but he's pretty much worth it. And he won't likely cost the Reds Wagner-esque money in the future.

(I was referring to Soriano as an underachiever as a starter).


I don't think we really disagree all that much really.... BTW, I found this post (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1203617&postcount=30) recently where you make a point that is relevent to the Lidge discussion.

There is no doubting that this bullpen needs an infusion of this: high K/9, great K/BB....

If that means paying for it, then the reds have to do what they have to do within reason....

Krusty
05-15-2007, 10:28 AM
Here we go:

Lidge/Ensberg for Encarncion/Coffey/Coutlangus

BRM
05-15-2007, 10:31 AM
Here we go:

Lidge/Ensberg for Encarncion/Coffey/Coutlangus

The Reds would be taking on ~$9M in salary with that deal. Do you think Bob would approve?

membengal
05-15-2007, 10:35 AM
He approved taking on that much for Stanton/Conine/Cormier. How about going for actual talent this time around?

Krusty
05-15-2007, 11:59 AM
The Reds would be taking on ~$9M in salary with that deal. Do you think Bob would approve?


How bad does Bob want to win? He ate the Cormier contract. He will probably eat the Milton contract.

Isn't Lidge a free agent at the end of the season?

You want to put fannies in the seat from Memorial Day on? You need to do something desperate. And Krivsky infactuation with veteran relievers would fit with a deal like this. Problem with the bullpen is they don't have someone who can throw gas in the closer role unless Salmon is that guy. And I think we all know that Todd Coffey isn't that closer.

Slyder
05-15-2007, 01:42 PM
The Reds would be taking on ~$9M in salary with that deal. Do you think Bob would approve?

Throw in Milton problem solved and an extra roster space opened up for guys who actually might have a future in Cincy.

BRM
05-15-2007, 02:01 PM
Throw in Milton problem solved and an extra roster space opened up for guys who actually might have a future in Cincy.

Throwing in Milton will just make Houston say no to the deal. He's not an added bonus from their perspective.

Jr's Boy
05-15-2007, 03:07 PM
A deal for Pence and Lidge would be great.

FutureRedsGM
05-15-2007, 04:12 PM
A deal for Pence and Lidge would be great.

Where would Pence play in the Reds line-up?

I like the Lidge / EE deal, somewhat. I think the Stros need to add a LITTLE more to off-set the salaries.

Highlifeman21
05-16-2007, 06:28 PM
Here we go:

Lidge/Ensberg for Encarncion/Coffey/Coutlangus

Why would the Astros do that, and how would that help us to build towards the future?

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2007, 06:50 PM
Why would the Astros do that, and how would that help us to build towards the future?

I think it's a pretty decent deal honestly. Ensberg is not young, but Lidge, is relatively speaking. Jerry/Wayne seem to love the scrappy vets, so having a veteran 3rd basemen may not be a bad thing.

Highlifeman21
05-16-2007, 07:01 PM
I think it's a pretty decent deal honestly. Ensberg is not young, but Lidge, is relatively speaking. Jerry/Wayne seem to love the scrappy vets, so having a veteran 3rd basemen may not be a bad thing.

Building towards the future means acquiring guys that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 30?

Hmmmm.

If that's the case, maybe we should continue to follow the SF Giants blueprint and attempt to collect all the guys we can that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 40.

TC81190
05-16-2007, 07:37 PM
Building towards the future means acquiring guys that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 30?

Hmmmm.

If that's the case, maybe we should continue to follow the SF Giants blueprint and attempt to collect all the guys we can that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 40.

Or we can keep playing for a future that may never come.

Falls City Beer
05-16-2007, 07:50 PM
Building towards the future means acquiring guys that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 30?

Hmmmm.

If that's the case, maybe we should continue to follow the SF Giants blueprint and attempt to collect all the guys we can that are approaching and or on the wrong side of 40.

I'm all for getting younger, but I'd much rather get better.

Highlifeman21
05-16-2007, 09:08 PM
I'm all for getting younger, but I'd much rather get better.

Call me crazy, but I'd like to see both.

I wish we were better, but most of our options that are at the levels of ML to AA don't have a lot of upside it seems.

I don't have much faith in prospects developing, nor do I have faith in us acquiring guys that can produce between the ages of 26 and 30.

What I do know is that I hold even less faith in some of our A ball prospects developing to have much impact at the ML level.

jojo
05-16-2007, 09:51 PM
I'm all for getting younger, but I'd much rather get better.

I'm not sure why the two would be considered mutually exclusive...

Falls City Beer
05-16-2007, 09:55 PM
I'm not sure why the two would be considered mutually exclusive...

They're not of course...but getting younger, in and of itself, does not presuppose getting "better."

That's a common fallacy on this site: getting younger equals getting better.

fearofpopvol1
05-17-2007, 02:04 AM
I'm all for getting younger, but I'd much rather get better.

Excellent point and I agree fully.

Chip R
06-20-2007, 02:27 PM
I thought I'd post this arrticle from ESPN the Magazine about Lidge in this thread instead of starting a new one.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2908913