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View Full Version : Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy



Krusty
05-19-2007, 11:01 AM
I doubt very much Krivsky and ownership will fire Narron during the season. The problem lies more in the clubhouse where there is no leadership among the players. And despite beating the trade Dunn topics to death, I think that dealing Dunn is more likely to happen than seeing Narron getting fired?

You look at Dunn and see a DH. Already he has a seven errors in LF. His inability to hit in clutch situations has hurt this club more than Narron's managerial decisions. He continues to pile strikeouts despite having a new hitting coach each year. You don't see improvement in the guy.

One thing the club is hurting at is against lefthanded pitching. Krivsky might not want to admit but trading Kearns and Lopez has hurt this club in this area despite adding Conine. With the emergence of Hamilton, it makes it easier to trade Dunn for a righthanded bat and possibly bullpen help. But in order for a trade to fly, the Reds would have to first guarantee Dunn's option for 2008 because they won't get anything substantial if he is just a rental for a team for the remainder of the 2007 season.

With that said, I honestly believe if there is going to be a shakeup, it will be a major player like Dunn being dealt than Narron getting fired.

It has been awhile since I done a trade proposal but let me dig into Krivsky's past and propose a trade with the Twins:

Dunn and Salmon to the Twins for OF Michael Cuddyer and RHP Juan Rincon.

The Reds get a righthanded hitting outfielder to help them against lefthanded pitching while Rincon gives the Reds a solid arm in the pen. The Twins get a DH in Dunn and adds more power in the Twins lineup with Hunter and Morneau.

pahster
05-19-2007, 11:19 AM
Dunn has 2 errors, not 7.

pahster
05-19-2007, 11:24 AM
Also, Cuddyer hasn't looked particularly good outside of last year. He's got pretty good minor league numbers, but they haven't really translated into major league success (aside from last year). He actually looks a bit like Austin Kearns to me...

westofyou
05-19-2007, 11:25 AM
Dunn has 2 errors, not 7.

Shhh.... he's on a roll.

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2007, 11:41 AM
His inability to hit in clutch situations has hurt this club more than Narron's managerial decisions.

I stopped reading after this line and decided to stop taking Krusty's post seriously from now on.

bucksfan2
05-19-2007, 11:42 AM
Well another trade Dunn thread. IMO Dunn is far undervalued in this city. If Dunn is traded you need to replace 100 RBI's and 60+ runs (taking into consideration he its 40hrs). Many people say he isn't a clutch hitter, which he isnt, but if you win a game 3-2 does it matter what inning the run is scored it. Dunn is also relatively inexpensive considering what some players are making on the open market. Dunn for $12 million may actually be under market value. One problem I have with trading Dunn is you really dont even have an average outfielder on the horizon in the minors. They basically have no one in the minors who can step in and produce at a decent rate right now. Their best outfield prospect is 2 years away at the way Krivsky is developing Bruce. I am of the opinion that if you trade Dunn you need to get atleast a good bat plus a pitcher that can be developed. There is no way I trade Salmon without at least giving him a fair shot at the major league level. This organization right now is starved of a power arm in the pen and to trade away a guy who may fit that mold doesn't make much sense to me.

DTCromer
05-19-2007, 12:19 PM
I stopped reading after this line and decided to stop taking Krusty's post seriously from now on.

You're putting too much emphasis on Dunn's inability to come up with key hits. As much of a Dunn hater I am, Jerry's hurting this team more than Dunn can dream of.

KronoRed
05-19-2007, 01:39 PM
Good work to Welsh for getting this 7 error mistake everywhere, won't be long before the radio guys are talking about "7 error" Dunn

RedsMan3203
05-19-2007, 01:48 PM
Dunn and Salmon to the Twins for OF Michael Cuddyer and RHP Juan Rincon.

1) Rincon is done for the rest of the season...

2) Trowing in Salmon is the deal, why? He hasn't been given the chance at the big leagues to show anything... I personally like him.

3) Dunn for Cuddyer - crazy talk.

4) Twins don't trade... period.

macro
05-19-2007, 02:40 PM
Although there has been plenty of "trade Dunn" discussion, much of it has been on Reds Live. The Dunn threads we have had in ORG are getting long, so I guess it's just as well to run with this new one.

thatcoolguy_22
05-19-2007, 04:16 PM
Although there has been plenty of "trade Dunn" discussion, much of it has been on Reds Live. The Dunn threads we have had in ORG are getting long, so I guess it's just as well to run with this new one.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/3916

Highlifeman21
05-19-2007, 05:44 PM
Dunn and Salmon for Rincon and Cuddyer?

A downgrade at each position?

Show me the dotted line, give me a pen, I'm ready to sign....

TeamBoone
05-19-2007, 05:52 PM
Dunn has 2 errors, not 7.

Thank you for mentioning that.




Good work to Welsh for getting this 7 error mistake everywhere, won't be long before the radio guys are talking about "7 error" Dunn

Thanks for pointing that out, Krono... I knew I had heard it before somewhere and knew it was wrong. Welsh should correct that on the air one of these nights. Does he have an email address?

texasdave
05-19-2007, 05:54 PM
I keep reading where AD is far undervalued in this city. And then I turn around and read that no other team is going to give up equal value in return.
Don't these other clubs realize what a value player AD is? Why wouldn't they give up equal value to get such a cornerstone? Kinda makes me wonder which one is it?

Handofdeath
05-19-2007, 05:59 PM
It's a bit like saying your kid is the best looking, most talented, etc. compared to all the other kids. I think in the case of Dunn and most other Reds, most Reds fans far over value them. Most fans are like that I think.

redsfanmia
05-19-2007, 06:17 PM
I keep reading where AD is far undervalued in this city. And then I turn around and read that no other team is going to give up equal value in return.
Don't these other clubs realize what a value player AD is? Why wouldn't they give up equal value to get such a cornerstone? Kinda makes me wonder which one is it?

I think that Dunn has very litte trade value and I think he wouldnt even sniff the current contract numbers on the open market.

hebroncougar
05-19-2007, 07:49 PM
I think that Dunn has very litte trade value and I think he wouldnt even sniff the current contract numbers on the open market.

I think you're way, way wrong. I'd bet on the open market, he'd be valued pretty highly. His career ops is 28% higher than the league. Soriano's is 15%.

donnelly_31
05-19-2007, 08:22 PM
Trading away Kearns and Lopez did NOT hurt this team look at their stats this year. Just more of what the Reds already have- guys that don't consistently make contact at the plate

redsfanmia
05-19-2007, 08:27 PM
I think you're way, way wrong. I'd bet on the open market, he'd be valued pretty highly. His career ops is 28% higher than the league. Soriano's is 15%.

We will see who is right at the trade deadline and in the offseason when Dunn signs an incentive laden deal with some A.L team.

dsmith421
05-19-2007, 09:01 PM
Trading away Kearns and Lopez did NOT hurt this team look at their stats this year. Just more of what the Reds already have- guys that don't consistently make contact at the plate

Clayton, Bray, Majewski, Harris, Thompson = 0 Innings for the Reds in 2007.

Great trade.

macro
05-19-2007, 09:07 PM
Although there has been plenty of "trade Dunn" discussion, much of it has been on Reds Live. The Dunn threads we have had in ORG are getting long, so I guess it's just as well to run with this new one.

Oops, my mistake. This is Reds Live. Oh, well, continue...

nate
05-19-2007, 09:43 PM
Clayton, Bray, Majewski, Harris, Thompson = 0 Innings for the Reds in 2007.

Great trade.

There is a god!

danwl
05-19-2007, 09:51 PM
Shhh.... he's on a roll.

Can't believe you didn't get appropriate props for this one. You da man.

"And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the going gets tough . . . the tough get going. Who's with me? Let's Go! Come on! AAAAEEEEEGGGHHHH!!"

jojo
05-19-2007, 10:25 PM
I think that Dunn has very litte trade value and I think he wouldnt even sniff the current contract numbers on the open market.

Right now Dunn's bat is ranked third highest by VORP for leftfielders in the majors. His defense probably drags him into the second tier of LFs-think Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell. His trade value is also mitigated by his contract situation. That being said, Dunn's on a pace to be somewhere around a 4.5 to 5 win bat this season which justifies his salary so I'd think the Dunn detractors would be pretty quiet right now unless his performance really doesn't color their opinions.

If Dunn is strictly going to be used as a DH, there really are only two teams that would be considered serious suitors-LAA and Minnesota. Minnesota would love to have Dunn since they've got problems both at DH and leftfield offensively. Dunn is kind of pricey for them and they probably wouldn't do anything for him if something multiyear couldn't be worked out. Then again they might rent him for the rest of the year if the asking price wasn't outrageous. I'm not sure how serious LAA would be about upgrading their offense since they've been horrible and still have a comfortable lead in their division. However, their farm is stocked and money isn't an issue for them. I'd be willing to bet that a few teams might also consider Dunn in left for the upgrade his bat would provide for example, Atlanta and CWS (maybe the recovering Podsednick plus pitching comes back?).

I'd think if the reds pulled that trigger, there would be starting pitching involved (i.e. w/Twins, Baker would be part of the deal in the very least). EE would probably be called up and your outfield would have Hamilton/Freel/Griffey/Hopper.

An arm like Baker is probably a reasonable expectation-youngish and under control for 5 years, great control with decent stuff with a good chance of being a solid innings eater as a poor man's #3 or as a solid 4 spot in the rotation.

the '08 rotation could look like this:
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Baker-like arm
4. Homer
5. ?????

texasdave
05-19-2007, 10:33 PM
Right now Dunn's bat is ranked third highest by VORP for leftfielders in the majors. His defense probably drags him into the second tier of LFs-think Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell. His trade value is also mitigated by his contract situation. That being said, Dunn's on a pace to be somewhere around a 4.5 to 5 win bat this season which justifies his salary so I'd think the Dunn detractors would be pretty quiet right now unless his performance really doesn't color their opinions.



About this time of year AD is usually a 4.5 to 5 win bat. He seems to have trouble after August 1st. Maybe his off-season workouts can help stave off that yearly downturn. Here's hoping anyway.

dsmith421
05-20-2007, 01:31 AM
Rincon is a relief pitcher AND injured? How in the world hasn't Wayne already acquired him?

Eric_Davis
05-20-2007, 04:39 AM
Shhh.... he's on a roll.

The Belushi reference.....a classic.

Eric_Davis
05-20-2007, 05:18 AM
Looking at this from the back-door, the REDS lineup for 2008:

1B Votto should start from Opening Day
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion (he'll be back up before May ends)
SS Gonzalez
C It's a mystery
CF Hamilton (Jay Bruce should be called up by July)
LF Wise/Freel/Hopper until Hamilton takes over in July
RF Griffey as he thinks of wearing a REDS' cap in the Hall

So, my point is that Bruce needs to be playing everyday once he's called up, not sitting on the bench or spending all of next year in AAA.

This makes Dunn, who's having his best year ever as a RED, perfect trade material for quality pitching.

Or, this scenario:

Hamilton moves to RF because of his arm when Bruce is called up, and Junior is asked if he wants to go to a contender this year.

We won't get half as much for Junior as we would for Dunn, but we'd also have the possibility of having Dunn for the next five years, which would be a good thing....and he stays in LF. Votto is our 1B from 2008-whenever.

Right now Dunn's AVG is higher than any season in his career, his SLG is higher than any season since his rookie year, and only 7 points below that. He hasn't been caught stealing a base since 2005. He's on pace for 338 Total Bases, 124 Runs, 100 RBI's, 28 SB's.

On the down side, his Range Factor is lower than any season he's ever had, but he's got help now in CF, SS, and 3B, so he doesn't have to go as far. He's on pace for 224 K's, but, it's early in the season. That might change. He's got to be doing something right in his adjustment as he's on pace for 160 hits, which would easily be his most as a pro.

Dunn's also the kind of guy who could average 40 HR's over the next 8 years.

RedsBaron
05-20-2007, 08:39 AM
According to the Reds official site ( I just checked), Dunn is batting .267. He is second on the team to Griffey in OBP at .368, is second in stolen bases with 7 (and has yet to be caught stealing-where can the Reds replace his speed ;) ), he is tied with Griffey for the team lead with 25 RBI, and he leads the Reds with 11 HRs, 31 runs scored, and a slugging percentage of .560.
It is rather obvious that Dunn is what is wrong with the Reds and if the Reds could only find another team stupid enough to take Dunn off their hands the 2007 Reds will finally start playing like the 1927 Yankees. ;)

Highlifeman21
05-20-2007, 10:29 AM
Looking at this from the back-door, the REDS lineup for 2008:

1B Votto should start from Opening Day
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion (he'll be back up before May ends)
SS Gonzalez
C It's a mystery
CF Hamilton (Jay Bruce should be called up by July)
LF Wise/Freel/Hopper until Hamilton takes over in July
RF Griffey as he thinks of wearing a REDS' cap in the Hall

So, my point is that Bruce needs to be playing everyday once he's called up, not sitting on the bench or spending all of next year in AAA.

This makes Dunn, who's having his best year ever as a RED, perfect trade material for quality pitching.

Or, this scenario:

Hamilton moves to RF because of his arm when Bruce is called up, and Junior is asked if he wants to go to a contender this year.

We won't get half as much for Junior as we would for Dunn, but we'd also have the possibility of having Dunn for the next five years, which would be a good thing....and he stays in LF. Votto is our 1B from 2008-whenever.

Right now Dunn's AVG is higher than any season in his career, his SLG is higher than any season since his rookie year, and only 7 points below that. He hasn't been caught stealing a base since 2005. He's on pace for 338 Total Bases, 124 Runs, 100 RBI's, 28 SB's.

On the down side, his Range Factor is lower than any season he's ever had, but he's got help now in CF, SS, and 3B, so he doesn't have to go as far. He's on pace for 224 K's, but, it's early in the season. That might change. He's got to be doing something right in his adjustment as he's on pace for 160 hits, which would easily be his most as a pro.

Dunn's also the kind of guy who could average 40 HR's over the next 8 years.

Oh my....

We're gonna trade Dunn to see that in LF?

Bruce probably won't be ready by July 2008, so why not keep Dunn in LF, Hamilton in CF and Griffey in Rf until Bruce is ready for Opening Day 2009?

ChatterRed
05-20-2007, 10:38 AM
I keep reading where AD is far undervalued in this city. And then I turn around and read that no other team is going to give up equal value in return.
Don't these other clubs realize what a value player AD is? Why wouldn't they give up equal value to get such a cornerstone? Kinda makes me wonder which one is it?

I think that says it all.

The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.

westofyou
05-20-2007, 10:58 AM
I think that says it all.

The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.
And you too right?

I mean I think that you're pretty clueless too.

hebroncougar
05-20-2007, 12:13 PM
I think that says it all.

The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.

Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2

jojo
05-20-2007, 01:06 PM
Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2

A quick point of opinionated contention.... IMHO, BP has real issues with the defensive side of things.... anything beyond their valuation of bats is pretty suspect (WARP, MORP etc) because they are impacted by the way they rate defense.

I think the truth about Dunn's worth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two polarized camps... He's probably worth more to the Reds than to a lot of other teams because the Reds only have to pay his salary (while other teams would also have to give up talent to the reds for that privilege). But I think there are teams that might do something unexpected if they feel Dunn is the piece that can put them over the top. Basically, IMHO, if he's hitting BP's VORP projections, his trade value peaks as July approaches and then falls again as the off season comes (when the most options for teams are available). Obviously his worth depends upon how contending teams are set for DH and LF. That means the number of teams that might seriously deal for him will be a small minority even at his peak value. At league minimum, nearly every team would consider him. At $13M (ala '08), he's not nearly as attractive. That is not a slam on Dunn in anyway. It's the business side of baseball.

He's a player with an asterisk (unique skillset). His defense and contract situation mitigate his trade value. He's to the point in his career where the money he'll make means he's more of a risk since his value is essentially all derived from his bat and his rate will be at the market value. He's probably best suited to DH but that's a position with the greatest talent pool to select from. The talent pool for left field is smaller but is still very large as well. Basically, teams weigh what they'll have to pay him + what they'd have to give up to acquire him in talent and they can see ways in which they can achieve a reasonably similar affect on their RA/RA equation for cheaper and less risk. The Reds equation is much simpler-they only have to weigh the risk of paying Dunn versus the risk of paying someone new they bring in to replace Dunn. I think the Reds pick up Dunn's '08 option.

redsfanmia
05-20-2007, 07:29 PM
Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2

Thats fine and dandy but we will see what Dunn gets in real life and real dollars. I have a feeling it wont be anything close to what Baseball Prospecuts says.

bucksfan2
05-21-2007, 09:51 AM
I actually think Dunn's defense has been slightly improved. He doesn't look graceful but he does get the job done. Right now I do not see the reds trading Dunn. They really have no one immediatly there to replace him. Also if Dunn goes this offense is going to take a huge hit. You can argue all you want about strikeouts but fact of the matter is you will be trading away probably your most productive player in terms of rbi's and runs scored. Hamilton has shown signes of being a run producer but still needs time. Jr is having a good season but wont be around cincinnati for too much longer. Phillips and EE are too streaky to rely on them solely for run production. People say you win with pitching and defense but you also need to score runs. You wont win many games when you score 1-2 runs even if you have the best pitching staff and best defense in baseball. Trading Dunn with no one waiting in the wings to replace him doesn't make much sense to me.

If I were the reds management I would look at extending him. I would probably buy out his option next year and try and sign him for two more years around $13-$14 million and throw a option for the 3rd year. This would not only lock him up for a couple of years but it also would increase his trade value. But according to some on this board, I think dunn have value so render this statement clueless.

BurgervilleBuck
05-21-2007, 10:28 AM
Good work to Welsh for getting this 7 error mistake everywhere, won't be long before the radio guys are talking about "7 error" Dunn
Not unlike Saturday night when Thom cited one of the Tribe players having 18 doubles this season. Of course, Dad corrected him on-air. It's actually 8 doubles.

hebroncougar
05-21-2007, 10:38 AM
Thats fine and dandy but we will see what Dunn gets in real life and real dollars. I have a feeling it wont be anything close to what Baseball Prospecuts says.

So you don't think Dunn could come close to a 5 year $66 million dollar deal? I think he could.

44Magnum
05-21-2007, 11:08 AM
I have seen all I need to of Dunn. He has to go! I have supported Dunn up until now.

kaldaniels
05-21-2007, 11:26 AM
I see all this stats and Dunn's projected salary...for me its pretty simple...compare him to other players.

I would expect a contract figure between the amount Carlos Lee and A. Soriano got, trending towards Lee's figure if I had to pick one...

redsfanmia
05-21-2007, 05:17 PM
I see all this stats and Dunn's projected salary...for me its pretty simple...compare him to other players.

I would expect a contract figure between the amount Carlos Lee and A. Soriano got, trending towards Lee's figure if I had to pick one...

If Dunn gets that kind of money I hope and pray that its from another team because that contract would doom the Reds to mediocrity for the length of the deal.

44Magnum
05-21-2007, 05:45 PM
While Dunn obviously has some value, I want him gone badly. I have trouble watching someone who keeps making the exact same mistake over and over. :bang:

hebroncougar
05-21-2007, 05:53 PM
While Dunn obviously has some value, I want him gone badly. I have trouble watching someone who keeps making the exact same mistake over and over. :bang:

That's the story of the Reds season thus far. Dunn, and everyone else, making the same mistakes, over, and over, and over. If you are a vet, there's no accountability.

texasdave
05-21-2007, 06:06 PM
I used to hear the same thing about Craig Biggio. If a pitcher started a slider low and away that broke out of the strike zone Biggio would swing at it most of the time. Why didn't he learn to lay off that pitch people would ask? It is true that he would swing and miss that pitch a lot. The flip side was if that slider hung the least little bit he would rope it into the corner for a double or deposit it into the Crawford Boxes. If you think about it maybe there is a method to the madness.

pahster
05-21-2007, 07:26 PM
I have seen all I need to of Dunn. He has to go! I have supported Dunn up until now.

Yeah, his .905 OPS (second only to Griffey) is killing this team...

steveooo33
05-22-2007, 02:50 PM
If the Reds traded Adam Dunn I think I would throw the biggest party ever. I would take all the money I have and rent out the boat on top of the batters eye and get completely smashed. When is management going to understand that this is not the guy to build a franchise around. We need to trade him before every other team figures out that he is an absolute joke and he doesn't even want to be a Red. Send him back to Texas were he belongs and he can strikeout and look like a circus in the outfield there. Watching him play baseball makes me want to puke.

Degenerate39
05-22-2007, 02:52 PM
Original thread

mroby85
05-22-2007, 03:02 PM
Original thread

the repetitive type of play by adam dunn leads to the repetitve posts.

i know i'm in the minority with you, but i agree, dunn being traded would be a great thing.

justincredible
05-22-2007, 03:12 PM
While we are at it lets trade Phillips and Griffey. Offense is overrated. :rolleyes:

Razor Shines
05-22-2007, 03:15 PM
If the Reds traded Adam Dunn I think I would throw the biggest party ever. I would take all the money I have and rent out the boat on top of the batters eye and get completely smashed. When is management going to understand that this is not the guy to build a franchise around. We need to trade him before every other team figures out that he is an absolute joke and he doesn't even want to be a Red. Send him back to Texas were he belongs and he can strikeout and look like a circus in the outfield there. Watching him play baseball makes me want to puke.

Wow, you have an awesome amount of baseball knowledge. Thank you so much for blessing us with your presence here in the Sun Deck, unfortunately it won't be long before you're whisked away to the ORG.

By the way what kind of a return would make you happy with trading Dunn?

mroby85
05-22-2007, 03:15 PM
actually phillips and griffey are productive, so i think i'd keep them.

Razor Shines
05-22-2007, 03:17 PM
actually phillips and griffey are productive, so i think i'd keep them.

I'm concerned about your interpretation of "productive". How in your definition have BP and Jr. been productive, but Dunn hasn't been?

mroby85
05-22-2007, 03:17 PM
Wow, you have an awesome amount of baseball knowledge. Thank you so much for blessing us with your presence here in the Sun Deck, unfortunately it won't be long before you're whisked away to the ORG.

By the way what kind of a return would make you happy with trading Dunn?

i'm sensing sarcasm, lol.

Slyder
05-22-2007, 03:18 PM
If the Reds traded Adam Dunn I think I would throw the biggest party ever. I would take all the money I have and rent out the boat on top of the batters eye and get completely smashed. When is management going to understand that this is not the guy to build a franchise around. We need to trade him before every other team figures out that he is an absolute joke and he doesn't even want to be a Red. Send him back to Texas were he belongs and he can strikeout and look like a circus in the outfield there. Watching him play baseball makes me want to puke.

I just want to dispute Dunn a bit with some numbers.

Dunn is hitting .262 batting 6th which Narron has some unexplainable hard on for doing. Dunn has 8 bbs in 50 poss ABs bumping his OBP upto .392, Dunn has 60 Ks over the course of the season a third of those have come from batting 6th.

That tells me one thing most teams are avoiding him like the plague and he's either swinging at pitches just off the plate b/c he knows he's not likely to see anything over the fat part of the plate or he's just waiting for his walk and subsequent LOB tally in the stat book.

Compare those numbers to him batting 2nd over the past 3 years.

133 At bats, bat ave .308, obp .425, slug .564, ops of .989 where is he better used looking at just that.

Ya his defense is bad, but Boston gets away with Manny Ramirez, and SF gets away with Barry "I got no knees" Bonds.

You bat Dunn WHERE HE SHOULD BE and you would see an increase in production.

mroby85
05-22-2007, 03:19 PM
I'm concerned about your interpretation of "productive". How in your definition have BP and Jr. been productive, but Dunn hasn't been?

all you're wanting are nerdy statistics, and thats not what it's all about. if you watch the games, i would think you'd notice that phillips and griffey are more complete players, and you would definately rather have either one up in a clutch situation, considering dunn is hitting 176 with 2 outs and RISP.

mroby85
05-22-2007, 03:21 PM
I just want to dispute Dunn a bit with some numbers.

Dunn is hitting .262 batting 6th which Narron has some unexplainable hard on for doing. Dunn has 8 bbs in 50 poss ABs bumping his OBP upto .392, Dunn has 60 Ks over the course of the season a third of those have come from batting 6th.


That tells me one thing most teams are avoiding him like the plague and he's either swinging at pitches just off the plate b/c he knows he's not likely to see anything over the fat part of the plate or he's just waiting for his walk and subsequent LOB tally in the stat book.

Compare those numbers to him batting 2nd over the past 3 years.

133 At bats, bat ave .308, obp .425, slug .564, ops of .989 where is he better used looking at just that.

Ya his defense is bad, but Boston gets away with Manny Ramirez, and SF gets away with Barry "I got no knees" Bonds.

You bat Dunn WHERE HE SHOULD BE and you would see an increase in production.

i see your point, but manny and bonds are way way way better hitters than dunn. in my opinion anyway.

Slyder
05-22-2007, 03:23 PM
i see your point, but manny and bonds are way way way better hitters than dunn. in my opinion anyway.

Dunn hits 2nd for a full year like he has the past 3 many would put him right up there with them. He may not hit for .330 but he is good for as much if not more HRs, SBs, Runs scored, RBIs as Manny or Bonds at this point in their careers.

justincredible
05-22-2007, 03:26 PM
Quick question: Who produces the most amount of runs in the Reds lineup?

If Dunn would bat 2nd or 3rd, the only two spots in the order he should ever bat IMO, his numbers would be even better.

Razor Shines
05-22-2007, 03:28 PM
all you're wanting are nerdy statistics, and thats not what it's all about. if you watch the games, i would think you'd notice that phillips and griffey are more complete players, and you would definately rather have either one up in a clutch situation, considering dunn is hitting 176 with 2 outs and RISP.

I've watched every inning of every game so far this season. And no matter what you say Adam Dunn IS a productive player. You talk about clutch situations, but you have to take into account that if Dunn is batting low in the order he's probably not getting any pitches to hit with RISP. So if he tries to hit a pitcher's pitch he's probably going to get himself out. Which is why Dunn should hit second every game.

RichRed
05-22-2007, 03:36 PM
Which is why Dunn should hit second every game.

Bingo. Why Narron can't see this is beyond me. I read somewhere that Narron agonizes over stats, matchups, etc., when he puts his lineup together. Yet somehow he's either missed, or ignored, the numbers showing that Dunn is a hitting machine when he's in the #2 spot.

And you're right too about him seeing pitches to hit. Why would you throw a pitch anywhere near the strike zone to Dunn if he's sandwiched by the likes of Conine and Gonzalez in the lineup?

Razor Shines
05-22-2007, 03:41 PM
Bingo. Why Narron can't see this is beyond me. I read somewhere that Narron agonizes over stats, matchups, etc., when he puts his lineup together. Yet somehow he's either missed, or ignored, the numbers showing that Dunn is a hitting machine when he's in the #2 spot.

And you're right too about him seeing pitches to hit. Why would you throw a pitch anywhere near the strike zone to Dunn if he's sandwiched by the likes of Conine and Gonzalez in the lineup?

I don't understand it either. I like Dunn then Jr. back to back, I don't care that much about the lefty - lefty thing.

rotnoid
05-22-2007, 03:43 PM
I don't understand it either. I like Dunn then Jr. back to back, I don't care that much about the lefty - lefty thing.

And you shouldn't at that point in the lineup. It's playing to the bullpen in the late innings. Let's get a lead first, and worry about 7th and 8th inning match ups in the 7th and 8th innings.

kyred14
05-22-2007, 04:03 PM
And you shouldn't at that point in the lineup. It's playing to the bullpen in the late innings. Let's get a lead first, and worry about 7th and 8th inning match ups in the 7th and 8th innings.

It's like Jerry worries way too much about the one situation that could happen late in the game, while seemingly ignoring the other 3 or 4 ab's in the game. He's done that for almost 2 years, and I guess it isn't going to change.

JLB5
05-22-2007, 04:32 PM
I've been trying to find a way to quantify the whole Dunn enigma for awhile. It's obvious he is a productive player (high OPS), but doesn't hit as well with runners on as many would like. Where to place him in the lineup is an enigma. I haven't found any of the conventional stats satisfying. I decided to look at how many RBIs he produces per at bat based upon situation (none on, runner on 1st, scoring position) compared to others on the team. I used career stats to get a larger sample (I compared Griff's last 3 years to his career numbers and remarkably there was no drop off).

RBI per at bat
Player Empty /On 1st /RISP
Griffey .07 .16 .48
Dunn .07 .16 .39
Edwin .04 .08 .47
Phillips .02 .08 .36
Hatte .02 .08 .39

What this tells me is that Dunn is a better "run producer" without RISP than most, and probably a little above average with RISP. Griffey and Edwin are the guys your monsters with RISP. Just for curiosity, I looked up Aurillia's numbers from last year because he was so highly regarded as "clutch." He was a .40 guy with RISP, not really any better than Dunn and not as good as Griff or Edwin. He had a few "timely hits" that created this perception. What this info tells me is that Moron (I mean Narron) actually was onto something when he had Dunn-Edwin-Griff in that order. The only debate is whether you put Dunn at 2 or 3. I say 3 because that allows you to bat Hatte/Conine in the 2 spot. Also, if neither of the first 2 guys gets on, Dunn gives you the best chance of still making something happen. I have seen some stats that say lineups don't really matter (especially after the 1st two innings), but I wasn't able to determine if they factored for NL vs AL. I think it makes much more of a difference in the NL due to the pitcher spot. Anyways, based on what I see here, I'd go with a lineup of:

Freel (Closest true lead off type)
Hatte/Conine (Good bat control for hit+run/work count)
Dunn (most likely to produce with 1/no one on)
Griff (most likely to produce with RISP)
Edwin (RH most likely to produce with RISP)
Phillips (Low OBP keeps him from 2 spot)
Gonzo (Hot start, will regress to his norm)
Ross (You have to have a catcher)
Pitcher

OR if you like Dunn at #2

Freel (Closest to true lead off type)
Dunn (most likely to produce with 1/no one on)
Griff (most likely to produce with RISP)
Edwin (RH most likely to produce with RISP)
Hatte/Conine (Good bat control for hit+run/work count)
Phillips (Low OBP keeps him from 2 spot)
Gonzo (Hot start, will regress to his norm)
Ross (You have to have a catcher)
Pitcher


(If Hamilton plays for Freel, I bat him leadoff)

I don't know about Dunn being the "fall guy" but I do think that trading should be part of a larger plan of building a lineup that makes sense as a whole. Of course, when Votto and Hamilton are both in the everday lineup for good, things will need to be adjusted yet again.

Ahhhorsepoo
05-23-2007, 01:08 AM
I hate Adam Dunn, I hope we trade him for a cardboard cutout of Bob Huggins, that would be a defensive upgrade..

pahster
05-23-2007, 01:14 AM
I hate Adam Dunn, I hope we trade him for a cardboard cutout of Bob Huggins, that would be a defensive upgrade..

Is this cardboard cutout going to OPS .900+?

WVPacman
05-23-2007, 01:26 AM
I am really starting to question Dunn's work ethic!! I mean he has been in the league for awhile now and he still has a long way to becoming a legit baseball player.He told everybody he was going to work on his defense in the off season.Well guys truth be told he still stinks on defense.

As far as him at the plate,lets be honest he has'nt improved at all at the plate.Its either a homer or a strikeout and 80% of the time its a strikeout.He has told us before that he will practice and take more batting practice so he can become a complte hitter.Well guys he still can't hit a curve,breaking ball,slider so what does that tell you?? His work ethic stinks and I don't see him changing b/c all he can hit is a fastball.

I honestly think he would be a better fit in the AL b/c he could be the DH and he would'nt have to play defense.He would just have to worry about one thing and thats hitting the ball.

Slyder
05-23-2007, 01:27 AM
I've been trying to find a way to quantify the whole Dunn enigma for awhile. It's obvious he is a productive player (high OPS), but doesn't hit as well with runners on as many would like. Where to place him in the lineup is an enigma. I haven't found any of the conventional stats satisfying. I decided to look at how many RBIs he produces per at bat based upon situation (none on, runner on 1st, scoring position) compared to others on the team. I used career stats to get a larger sample (I compared Griff's last 3 years to his career numbers and remarkably there was no drop off).

RBI per at bat
Player Empty /On 1st /RISP
Griffey .07 .16 .48
Dunn .07 .16 .39
Edwin .04 .08 .47
Phillips .02 .08 .36
Hatte .02 .08 .39

What this tells me is that Dunn is a better "run producer" without RISP than most, and probably a little above average with RISP. Griffey and Edwin are the guys your monsters with RISP. Just for curiosity, I looked up Aurillia's numbers from last year because he was so highly regarded as "clutch." He was a .40 guy with RISP, not really any better than Dunn and not as good as Griff or Edwin. He had a few "timely hits" that created this perception. What this info tells me is that Moron (I mean Narron) actually was onto something when he had Dunn-Edwin-Griff in that order. The only debate is whether you put Dunn at 2 or 3. I say 3 because that allows you to bat Hatte/Conine in the 2 spot. Also, if neither of the first 2 guys gets on, Dunn gives you the best chance of still making something happen. I have seen some stats that say lineups don't really matter (especially after the 1st two innings), but I wasn't able to determine if they factored for NL vs AL. I think it makes much more of a difference in the NL due to the pitcher spot. Anyways, based on what I see here, I'd go with a lineup of:

Freel (Closest true lead off type)
Hatte/Conine (Good bat control for hit+run/work count)
Dunn (most likely to produce with 1/no one on)
Griff (most likely to produce with RISP)
Edwin (RH most likely to produce with RISP)
Phillips (Low OBP keeps him from 2 spot)
Gonzo (Hot start, will regress to his norm)
Ross (You have to have a catcher)
Pitcher

OR if you like Dunn at #2

Freel (Closest to true lead off type)
Dunn (most likely to produce with 1/no one on)
Griff (most likely to produce with RISP)
Edwin (RH most likely to produce with RISP)
Hatte/Conine (Good bat control for hit+run/work count)
Phillips (Low OBP keeps him from 2 spot)
Gonzo (Hot start, will regress to his norm)
Ross (You have to have a catcher)
Pitcher


(If Hamilton plays for Freel, I bat him leadoff)

I don't know about Dunn being the "fall guy" but I do think that trading should be part of a larger plan of building a lineup that makes sense as a whole. Of course, when Votto and Hamilton are both in the everday lineup for good, things will need to be adjusted yet again.

Swap Phillips and the 1b platoon and you got my lineup with #2. Phillips has more power/xbh potential than 1b platoon. IMO. Both Conine and Hatteberg maybe better working counts but I feel Phillips has more potential of putting runs on the board with one swing than them. Dunn batting 2nd should see better pitches considering how well Griff is swinging the bat right now. Screw breaking up the Lefties.

jimbo
05-23-2007, 01:31 AM
From all indications, Dunn worked hard in the offseason, takes a lot of extra batting practice, and shows up early everyday. I don't think it's a matter that he isn't trying or working hard, it's just that he is what he is. A power hitter who will hit a lot of home runs, knock in 100+ rbis a year, and score 100+ runs, but also strikeout a lot and will never hit for average. I believe him when he says he wants to improve his defense but most likely he just doesn't have the ability to be a good defender.

He is what he is.

WVPacman
05-23-2007, 01:35 AM
Jimbo,who was that player that played in the 80's for the tigers that was a Homerun or nothing hitter.He went on to have a succesful career. Thats who Dunn reminds me of and I think he would be a better fit in the AL.Thats just my opinion thow!!

Razor Shines
05-23-2007, 01:56 AM
I am really starting to question Dunn's work ethic!! I mean he has been in the league for awhile now and he still has a long way to becoming a legit baseball player.He told everybody he was going to work on his defense in the off season.Well guys truth be told he still stinks on defense.

As far as him at the plate,lets be honest he has'nt improved at all at the plate.Its either a homer or a strikeout and 80% of the time its a strikeout.He has told us before that he will practice and take more batting practice so he can become a complte hitter.Well guys he still can't hit a curve,breaking ball,slider so what does that tell you?? His work ethic stinks and I don't see him changing b/c all he can hit is a fastball.

I honestly think he would be a better fit in the AL b/c he could be the DH and he would'nt have to play defense.He would just have to worry about one thing and thats hitting the ball.
First off what do you consider a "legit baseball player"? And how many legit baseball players are there if Dunn isn't one?

He strikes out 80% of the time? That is a lot, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that's completely inaccurate though.

Right now Dunn is being completely misused in the current Reds lineup. Everybody wanted him to swing at more pitches this year and expand his zone. But when he's hitting low in the order with no protection the other team's are not going to give him anything to hit. So all expanding his zone does is force him to swing at pitcher's pitches and get himself out. I'll keep saying it: Dunn needs to hit 2nd and force teams to throw him pitches in the hitting zone.

A lot of people may think that Dunn should be Bonds or ARod, and he's not those guys, but few are. Dunn is far from a worthless player. I have no problem if the Reds trade Dunn, but I'd only support trading him if it's for equal value.

WVPacman
05-23-2007, 02:26 AM
First off what do you consider a "legit baseball player"? And how many legit baseball players are there if Dunn isn't one?

He strikes out 80% of the time? That is a lot, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that's completely inaccurate though.

Right now Dunn is being completely misused in the current Reds lineup. Everybody wanted him to swing at more pitches this year and expand his zone. But when he's hitting low in the order with no protection the other team's are not going to give him anything to hit. So all expanding his zone does is force him to swing at pitcher's pitches and get himself out. I'll keep saying it: Dunn needs to hit 2nd and force teams to throw him pitches in the hitting zone.

A lot of people may think that Dunn should be Bonds or ARod, and he's not those guys, but few are. Dunn is far from a worthless player. I have no problem if the Reds trade Dunn, but I'd only support trading him if it's for equal value.


Razor,I like dunn,I never said he was worthless and I never said trade him.A legit player is a player that can hit with average,get a basehit when you need it,knock in runs on a constant basis.Sort of like a tony gwen,Albert Pujols,pete rose and so on.Im not saying he has to play like those players but he should be able to do some stuff that they do or did.As far as his batting posistion I honestly think he should bat sixed or seveth b/c this past month his Batting average is terrible,he does'nt knock in runs anymore and he does'nt get on base no more.I think it would be a bitg mistake to put him in the cleanup hole or 5th hole b/c he simply is in a terrible slump.Hey I like the guy and I always will but he is struggling now and we can't over look it.

jimbo
05-23-2007, 02:58 AM
Jimbo,who was that player that played in the 80's for the tigers that was a Homerun or nothing hitter.He went on to have a succesful career. Thats who Dunn reminds me of and I think he would be a better fit in the AL.Thats just my opinion thow!!

Darrell Evans, Lance Parish, and Kirk Gibson comes to mind but I don't think any of them struckout at the rate that Dunn does. I also don't think that any of them hit the home runs that Dunn does or the rbis, but I'm saying that without verifying it so I can't be for sure.

Not sure who else you could be thinking of.

Razor Shines
05-23-2007, 03:52 AM
Razor,I like dunn,I never said he was worthless and I never said trade him.A legit player is a player that can hit with average,get a basehit when you need it,knock in runs on a constant basis.Sort of like a tony gwen,Albert Pujols,pete rose and so on.Im not saying he has to play like those players but he should be able to do some stuff that they do or did.As far as his batting posistion I honestly think he should bat sixed or seveth b/c this past month his Batting average is terrible,he does'nt knock in runs anymore and he does'nt get on base no more.I think it would be a bitg mistake to put him in the cleanup hole or 5th hole b/c he simply is in a terrible slump.Hey I like the guy and I always will but he is struggling now and we can't over look it.

I know you didn't say those things, I was responding to other people in the thread who did say those things at that point. Sorry, I should have specified.

I don't want Dunn to hit 4th or 5th, I want him to hit second. If as you say he doesn't knock in enough runs, then wouldn't he better used in the 2 hole, he does get on base an awful lot and he's going to get better pitches to hit. I think the reason we've seen his BA go down is because he was moved down in the order and therefore not getting good pitches to hit.

sonny
05-23-2007, 05:44 AM
Dunn is what he is. A quality player? Yes. A capable peice to a WS team? Yes. A loose player that seems to lighten up the clubhouse? Yes. A strong presence in any lineup? You bet.

However, I don't think he's the guy to rebuild around. Yes, he's 27, but he also has that certain je ne sais quois about him that really rubs folks the wrong way. Work ethic perhaps. I dont know the man or study his workout routine, so I can't say for sure, but I don't see him getting better. His trade value, however high or low it may be, is the highest it's gonna be.

But Thats just my opinion, I'm probably wrong...

RadfordVA
05-23-2007, 06:51 AM
Jimbo,who was that player that played in the 80's for the tigers that was a Homerun or nothing hitter.He went on to have a succesful career. Thats who Dunn reminds me of and I think he would be a better fit in the AL.Thats just my opinion thow!!

Maybe your thinking of Rob Deer? He played for the tigers in the early 90s. He was more nothing than homeruns. While I am one that is frustrated by dunn a lot of the time i dont think he is as much as a joke as deer was. If that who you were referring to. I am more upset by having dunn in left then his ks at the plate.

Redhook
05-23-2007, 10:23 AM
Dunn is what he is. A quality player? Yes. A capable peice to a WS team? Yes. A loose player that seems to lighten up the clubhouse? Yes. A strong presence in any lineup? You bet.

However, I don't think he's the guy to rebuild around. Yes, he's 27, but he also has that certain je ne sais quois about him that really rubs folks the wrong way. Work ethic perhaps. I dont know the man or study his workout routine, so I can't say for sure, but I don't see him getting better. His trade value, however high or low it may be, is the highest it's gonna be.

But Thats just my opinion, I'm probably wrong...

I agree to a certain extent. I do think he works harder than people think. However, for whatever reason, he's not getting better. If anything, he's getting worse. Bad coaching? I don't know. But whatever it is, in my opinion, he is not a guy you build a team around, especially for the money he will be demanding soon.

I believe Dunn will be traded for a few reasons. 1) He's a damn good player, but for this team, he will be paid to carry the team which, unfortunately, he cannot do. 2) Votto has been practicing outfield. Could he or EE be switched to left field? I think that's a real possibility. 3) Dunn doesn't fit the mold that Krivsky is building this team around.

I just don't see Dunn being here long-term.

pahster
05-23-2007, 01:00 PM
I am really starting to question Dunn's work ethic!! I mean he has been in the league for awhile now and he still has a long way to becoming a legit baseball player.He told everybody he was going to work on his defense in the off season.Well guys truth be told he still stinks on defense.

Pretty much everyone who plays LF is a bad fielder. Jose Cruz Jr and Carl Crawford are the only two I can think off the top of my head who are particularly skilled. That doesn't mean Dunn shouldn't work to improve; he should. He's not very good. But really, no one else is either.


As far as him at the plate,lets be honest he has'nt improved at all at the plate.Its either a homer or a strikeout and 80% of the time its a strikeout.He has told us before that he will practice and take more batting practice so he can become a complte hitter.Well guys he still can't hit a curve,breaking ball,slider so what does that tell you?? His work ethic stinks and I don't see him changing b/c all he can hit is a fastball.

He actually strikes out in 27.1% of his plate appearances and hits a home run about 6% of the time. He also walks 16.4% of the time. His career OBP is .379 compared to the league's (park adjusted) .344 while his career SLG is .514 to the league's .437. In term's of OPS, that's .893 to .781. That gives him a career 128 OPS+. That's pretty good. Not Albert Pujols good, but good nonetheless.

As for his work ethic, I don't really have any way to know about it. I don't really care what it's like so long as he continues to produce.


I honestly think he would be a better fit in the AL b/c he could be the DH and he would'nt have to play defense.He would just have to worry about one thing and thats hitting the ball.

You're probably right, although I would change "hitting the ball" to "not making outs." Due to his body type and lack of defensive prowess, it's likely that Dunn will someday move to 1B or to DH.

eastkyred
05-23-2007, 06:25 PM
I don't think there is any doubt that Dunn is an above average player, but he is not good value for the money he makes. A team in our position has to maximize the dollars spent and I don't think they are doing that with Dunn. He is a #5 or #6 hitter(and a good one) because of his lack of production with RISP. The Reds can't pay a poor defensive #5 or #6 hitter 13 mil next year. The Yankees or Red Sox can, but not the Reds. Because they can't afford, in my opinion, to pay that much for what he brings he needs to be traded.

pahster
05-23-2007, 06:48 PM
I don't think there is any doubt that Dunn is an above average player, but he is not good value for the money he makes. A team in our position has to maximize the dollars spent and I don't think they are doing that with Dunn. He is a #5 or #6 hitter(and a good one) because of his lack of production with RISP. The Reds can't pay a poor defensive #5 or #6 hitter 13 mil next year. The Yankees or Red Sox can, but not the Reds. Because they can't afford, in my opinion, to pay that much for what he brings he needs to be traded.

Dunn's skillset is maximized by batting him second. He gets on base a lot (thus continuing the inning) and hits for power (putting himself in scoring position and driving others in), and at the same time doesn't ground into many double plays. He has functional speed on the bases. I find it quite discouraging to see Dunn as low as 5th (6th is worse) in a lineup like that of the Reds. If he played for the Yankees, he'd rightfully hit that low. I find it quite silly to see him that low for the Reds as often as he is, the exception being when he is struggling mightily, as he is now. It's always irritating to see guys like Gonzalez, Conine, and especially Castro in front of him, though.

RichRed
05-23-2007, 07:07 PM
He is a #5 or #6 hitter(and a good one) because of his lack of production with RISP.

Redsland had an excellent post showing that Dunn actually performs better with RISP.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1321055#post1321055

And as pahster said, Dunn has put up monster numbers in the 2-slot. If you want to maximize Dunn's production, don't bury him in the bottom half of the lineup.

You do raise a valid point about whether he is worth the money. I happen to think he is but I can see how an argument could be made to the contrary.

JLB5
05-23-2007, 07:40 PM
Redsland had an excellent post showing that Dunn actually performs better with RISP.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1321055#post1321055

And as pahster said, Dunn has put up monster numbers in the 2-slot. If you want to maximize Dunn's production, don't bury him in the bottom half of the lineup.

You do raise a valid point about whether he is worth the money. I happen to think he is but I can see how an argument could be made to the contrary.

That analysis is a bit misleading because every player drives in runs at a greater rate with RISP. You have to compare Dunn's rates to others and he drives in runs at a slightly above average rate with RISP. Griffey and Edwin are the best on the team. His OPS is inflated by his high walks as he gets pitched around. This is a particular problem if he is batting #6 because those hitting behind him have a decreased probability of knocking in the runs, wasting the walk.

The problem with Dunn as a #2 hitter is that it elimnates the possibility of "small ball." Dunn is seeminly incapable of "productive outs." Conventional thinking would suggest you want a player in the #2 spot who can at least move the runner if he is going to make an out. Putting him in that spot requires out of the box thinking and changing expectations. You aren't going to ask him to bunt the runner over.

I believe his maximum value is at #3 with Griffey and Edwin hitting behind him. His high OPS is maximized hitting in front of the best RBI producers.

I'm fine with him hitting #2, although I don't think he is worth 13 million as a #2 hitter. He needs to be hitting in the middle of the lineup if he is going to be making middle of the lineup money.

steveooo33
05-23-2007, 08:47 PM
I would take any kind of pitching for Dunn. I think the more the Reds wait the less he is worth. The man is a 1 tool player, he hits for power and that is it. How can you even think that Dunn is a two hitter? Who cares about numbers from a handful of games this season. You want someone who is a contact hitter and can move the runner over in that spot. Dunn does neither and is a guy that you can never Hit and Run with. How many AB's did he go without a Sac Fly? I also like the quote about Griffey and Philips should be traded too. Griffey is are only all-star right now and leads the team in hitting (Not to mention the greatest player of the 90's) and Philips just finished up a 22 game hit streak. Both of these players also bring it everyday with their great defense. As I am writing this your boy just went from 62 to 63. Can you say AL DH!

pahster
05-23-2007, 09:00 PM
The man is a 1 tool player, he hits for power and that is it.

And gets on base a lot, the two most important characteristics of hitters. He also steals bases at a good rate. He doesn't steal a whole lot, but he's successful when he makes an attempt.


How can you even think that Dunn is a two hitter? Who cares about numbers from a handful of games this season.

I'm not citing his numbers from this year. I'm talking about his skill set. If I was going to throw some numbers around, I'd cite his career numbers from the two spot, which are
AVG - .276
OBP- .387
SLG - .552
OPS - .939

You can continue worrying about nearly random events like sacrifice flies if you want, though.

WVPacman
05-24-2007, 12:48 AM
Maybe your thinking of Rob Deer? He played for the tigers in the early 90s. He was more nothing than homeruns. While I am one that is frustrated by dunn a lot of the time i dont think he is as much as a joke as deer was. If that who you were referring to. I am more upset by having dunn in left then his ks at the plate.


Yes thats who it was it was rob deer.Deer was the kind of a player atleast imo that you could say he was at best an average player.Dunn,not as bad as Deer, seems to be taking the same road as did deer.The good thing about Dunn is he still has a chance to improve b/c hes still young.I just hope he realises that he can be a better player and starts practicing that much harder.I think he will do that!!

eastkyred
05-24-2007, 10:18 AM
Dunn is a productive hitter at times because of his plus power, but I agree that he is 1 tool player. He does have decent OBP numbers compared to his batting average, but both of those numbers have declined over the last few years and his OBP is very average if you want to compare him to other middle of the lineup guys on other teams. He makes no productive outs and breaks his own record for strikeouts every year. His batting average is worse with RISP: 2004 - .239
2005 - .248
2006 - .222
2007 - .180
Any team that this guy bats 3rd for will struggle offensively. Because he has plus power, he is a good 5 or 6 hitter. This combined with being probably the worst OF in the NL, the Reds can't pay $13 million next year for this guy. He needs to go NOW!

eastkyred
05-24-2007, 11:18 AM
By the way, I don't hate Adam Dunn. If we had Dunn for 4 or 5 million per year, he would be good value. At $13 mil next year, he is terrible value. With a $70 mil payroll you have to try and maximize the value of your dollar.