Looking back at Krivsky 2006 draft

[icehole3]

Since the Reds draft in a few weeks I just wanted to post a quick review of last years draft. Just a phenominal first year IMO. O Brien had some pretty good drafts (Bailey, Bruce) Krivsky clearly raised the bar though. Just looking at Dayton stats and just about every draft pick on that team is clearly a legit hitting prospect even down to kids like Phipps and Heisley. Then the top 4 pitching prospects have unreal WHIPs.

Jordan Smith 0.95
Sean Watson 0.98
Rafael Gonzalez 1.11
Travis Webb 0.99

Someone mentioned in another thread that Turner has passed Valaika, Turner IMO was the guy I felt was going to be the leader of this bunch because of his outstanding leadership. I also felt that after watching Stubbs and Turner both clearly the leaders of their college teams and leading their teams into the college world series (Turner taking his team to the final 4) that they would (despite the criticism of a few on why we drafted Stubbs) be solid blue chip prospects. Basically all Im saying is Krivsky deserves a lot of credit for putting a A+ draft together in 2006.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=cin
2006 Draft Picks
Robert A Stubbs
Sean D Watson
Christopher A Valaika
Justin J Reed
Joshua J Ravin
Jordan Smith
Justin M Turner
Travis S Webb
Jeremy Burchett
Joshua J Roenicke
Brandon S Rice
Logan Parker
Kevin Gunter
Carson Kainer
Rafael Sanchez
Jamie L Arneson
Chris J Heisey
Derrik L Lutz
Eddy Rodriguez
Christopher M White
Adam T Pointer
Tony B Brown
Anthony P Esquer
Michael L Mckennon
Anthony Gressick
Keltavious A Jones
Tyler S Hauschild
Jason Louwsma
Ronald L Tabor
Eric B Schaler
Daniel C Dorn
Justin D Curry
Benjamin Ihde
John P Touchton
Nicholas D Wandless

[edabbs44]

Those pitchers look great until you realize that they are college guys playing in low A. They are, at this point, where you would hope they'd be. If they weren't pitching well then you'd be worried.

Btw, Gonzalez was an O'Brien draft pick.

[dougdirt]

Those pitchers look great until you realize that they are college guys playing in low A. They are, at this point, where you would hope they'd be. If they weren't pitching well then you'd be worried.


And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

[Blue]

And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

Am I crazy, or have you made that observation before?

[dougdirt]

Am I crazy, or have you made that observation before?

You my friend are actually NOT crazy. I have made that observation several times.

[edabbs44]

And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

I know I'm making a big generalization here, but...if a college kid is in low A ball for any extended period of time, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they are up against the odds of making an impact during their careers.

Looking at Dayton's opponent today (Clinton Lumberkings), 8 of the 13 position players on their roster are over the age of 21. They are:

David Peterson: .657 OPS
Mauro Gomez: .546 OPS
Jay Heafner: .537 OPS
Grant Gerrard: .586 OPS
Craig Gentry: .703 OPS
Wally Backman III: .577 OPS
KC Herren: 1.012 OPS
Chad Tracy: .795 OPS

Not exactly Murderer's Row. There's a reason why these guys are where they are. I know it's only one team and I know that there are probably some better college guys in Low A than these guys (i.e., Stubbs), but I'm not going to get all giddy about college guys pitching really well in Low A and deeming WK a mastermind because of this.

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

[dougdirt]

I know I'm making a big generalization here, but...if a college kid is in low A ball for any extended period of time, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they are up against the odds of making an impact during their careers.

Looking at Dayton's opponent today (Clinton Lumberkings), 8 of the 13 position players on their roster are over the age of 21. They are:

David Peterson: .657 OPS
Mauro Gomez: .546 OPS
Jay Heafner: .537 OPS
Grant Gerrard: .586 OPS
Craig Gentry: .703 OPS
Wally Backman III: .577 OPS
KC Herren: 1.012 OPS
Chad Tracy: .795 OPS

Not exactly Murderer's Row. There's a reason why these guys are where they are. I know it's only one team and I know that there are probably some better college guys in Low A than these guys (i.e., Stubbs), but I'm not going to get all giddy about college guys pitching really well in Low A and deeming WK a mastermind because of this.

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

I think its just silly to be down on someone because they are succeeding against the competition they are playing against when they simply have no control over who they play against. They are told where they will play, and they have no choice over it. Its not as if they are playing against a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds.

[edabbs44]

I think its just silly to be down on someone because they are succeeding against the competition they are playing against when they simply have no control over who they play against. They are told where they will play, and they have no choice over it. Its not as if they are playing against a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds.

I'm not down on any of those pitchers. But I'm also not saying that the '06 draft was a huge success based on the performances of these pitchers.

The argument about them having no control overwhere they play has limited to no merit. We're not judging the character of these players...we are trying to evaluate the future of these guys. Just because they have no control over where they play doesn't make them any more of a prospect.

[dougdirt]

I'm not down on any of those pitchers. But I'm also not saying that the '06 draft was a huge success based on the performances of these pitchers.

The argument about them having no control overwhere they play has limited to no merit. We're not judging the character of these players...we are trying to evaluate the future of these guys. Just because they have no control over where they play doesn't make them any more of a prospect.

It doesn't make them any less of a prospect either though, which is the point I was trying to make. Take Jay Bruce for example, last year somehow Andrew McCutchen vaulted over him toward the end of the year because he had 2 good weeks in a AA callup. Of course now McCutchen isnt hitting .200 in AA and Jay Bruce is doing things at historic levels in the FSL. No one is going to say that the 2006 draft is a success this early, but it is showing signs of being good.

[icehole3]

Maybe I was over zealous in my comments, but the stats are the stats. If they didnt post those super low way way below average WHIPs then I wouldnt be posting this, but they did and Ive had (thanks to Time Warner) a chance to see these kids and theyre pitching their azzes off and theyre hitting ball around 5th 3rd park like nobodys business. So basically Im just saying kudos to Krivsky. You think they suck I do not.

[osuceltic]

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.
And the odds remain long that Ward will ever be as good as Lohse. I say that was a good trade.

[edabbs44]

And the odds remain long that Ward will ever be as good as Lohse. I say that was a good trade.

I'd rather have Ward's future than Lohse's present any day. The guy is a disaster and, even if Ward doesn't pan out, he wouldn't have cost $6-7 million for 1 1/3 years of mediocrity, at best.

[LoganBuck]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47064

Just wanted to post a link. Makes for some interesting reading, on the thoughts about last years draft real time.

[Eric_Davis]

I'd rather have Ward's future than Lohse's present any day. The guy is a disaster and, even if Ward doesn't pan out, he wouldn't have cost $6-7 million for 1 1/3 years of mediocrity, at best.

You can't have it both ways.

Either you can go with Elizardo Ramirez and keep Ward, or you can have the good second half last year and good April this year that Lohse has given us for a Low-A prospect.

There aren't starting pitchers hanging out on trees out there that you can just plunk off and stick into the starting lineup. You have to give up something. And Ward was clearly replaceable through the 2006 and 2007 draft.

[icehole3]

I agree every starter that has a decent record in our system isnt going to make the big club, thats reality. May as well trade them for usuable pieces along the way. It kills me when fans call GMs on the carpet for making a trade and then root for the guy traded, hoping one day he comes back to haunt us. Its nuts, major league teams trade their own every year we are no different than anyone else.

[edabbs44]

You can't have it both ways.

Either you can go with Elizardo Ramirez and keep Ward, or you can have the good second half last year and good April this year that Lohse has given us for a Low-A prospect.

There aren't starting pitchers hanging out on trees out there that you can just plunk off and stick into the starting lineup. You have to give up something. And Ward was clearly replaceable through the 2006 and 2007 draft.

I don't want Lohse, either last season, this April or next July. He is another veteran stop gap Krivsky special stiff that cost millions. I don't care what the mkt is/was for starters, he had a 7 ERA last season and he cost a decent pitching prospect and millions. Krivsky got NO MONEY in that deal. It is nearly unheard of to take on that much salary while giving up someone who at least had some success in the minors.

[Topcat]

You my friend are actually NOT crazy. I have made that observation several times.

And yet Edabbs somehow doesn't grasp that point lmfao. I have just discovered how to come off as mister wise guy :D it is a simple plan slam all prospects after all only 5 of the 40 make it at best and thus I am more right than wrong ;)

[Triples]

Edabbs:

Simple question...at what level would you expect a 2006 draft pick to be at in 2007, regardless of their age or previous level of competition (HS vs college)? How many players go from draft pick to some high level in way less than one full season? I know there are one off examples of players who jumped to the majors very quickly, but are we looking for that one in a million superstar, or the remaining 24 guys to fill out the squad?:bang:


I know I'm making a big generalization here, but...if a college kid is in low A ball for any extended period of time, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they are up against the odds of making an impact during their careers.

Looking at Dayton's opponent today (Clinton Lumberkings), 8 of the 13 position players on their roster are over the age of 21. They are:

David Peterson: .657 OPS
Mauro Gomez: .546 OPS
Jay Heafner: .537 OPS
Grant Gerrard: .586 OPS
Craig Gentry: .703 OPS
Wally Backman III: .577 OPS
KC Herren: 1.012 OPS
Chad Tracy: .795 OPS

Not exactly Murderer's Row. There's a reason why these guys are where they are. I know it's only one team and I know that there are probably some better college guys in Low A than these guys (i.e., Stubbs), but I'm not going to get all giddy about college guys pitching really well in Low A and deeming WK a mastermind because of this.

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

[HokieRed]

How long are people going to keep giving Krivsky a free pass on the rotation? The rotation could easily have been Arroyo, Harang, Bailey, Lincecum, and Germano by the end of this July. And we'd still have Zach Ward, plus the money wasted on Cormier and the money spent on Lohse. And by the way, we won't know how to evaluate K's 2006 draft for another year anyway. If at the end of this season, Turner, Valaika, and Stubbs are putting up good numbers at Sarasota, then we'll know we've got something. I happen to think they will but it's still too early to know anything realistic about how those guys will develop. Also, it's unfair to O'Brien to link him up just with Bailey and Bruce. Take a look at what he did with an 11th round pick--Carlos Fisher is developing into a big time pitching prospect.

[Aronchis]

How long are people going to keep giving Krivsky a free pass on the rotation? The rotation could easily have been Arroyo, Harang, Bailey, Lincecum, and Germano by the end of this July. And we'd still have Zach Ward, plus the money wasted on Cormier and the money spent on Lohse. And by the way, we won't know how to evaluate K's 2006 draft for another year anyway. If at the end of this season, Turner, Valaika, and Stubbs are putting up good numbers at Sarasota, then we'll know we've got something. I happen to think they will but it's still too early to know anything realistic about how those guys will develop. Also, it's unfair to O'Brien to link him up just with Bailey and Bruce. Take a look at what he did with an 11th round pick--Carlos Fisher is developing into a big time pitching prospect.

Lincecum yeah maybe, after Germano gets shelled a few times, you will not be saying his name. He hasn't been that impressive at all besides the majors don't know him. Look what has happened to Jerry Sowers after the MLB caught up to him. But unlike Sowers, he isn't left handed.

[icehole3]

Nobody is down grading what O Brien did, I was a (one of the few) huge supporters of what he did in his tenure. Basically I was just looking back on last year since the draft was coming up. I like to call it as I see it and you can go back and search my comments on O Brien. The free pass on Krivsky is what he has earned as far as drafting last year goes. Lincecum yeah has jumped out the gate on fire, but Krivsky's draft was pretty damn good, I call them as I see them.

[HokieRed]

I see no reason as yet to call Krivsky's 2006 draft good. His highest picks are having success at Low A ball. That's good, but they were all major college players and are not doing any more than one would expect from them. I actually like his draft, though I'd have liked it a lot more if the first pick had been Lincecum. But it's way too early to evaluate it properly.

[edabbs44]

Edabbs:

Simple question...at what level would you expect a 2006 draft pick to be at in 2007, regardless of their age or previous level of competition (HS vs college)? How many players go from draft pick to some high level in way less than one full season? I know there are one off examples of players who jumped to the majors very quickly, but are we looking for that one in a million superstar, or the remaining 24 guys to fill out the squad?:bang:

I'm pretty sure we are overreacting here. Here is the original post I was talking about:


O Brien had some pretty good drafts (Bailey, Bruce) Krivsky clearly raised the bar though. Just looking at Dayton stats and just about every draft pick on that team is clearly a legit hitting prospect even down to kids like Phipps and Heisley. Then the top 4 pitching prospects have unreal WHIPs.

Jordan Smith 0.95
Sean Watson 0.98
Rafael Gonzalez 1.11
Travis Webb 0.99

I'll just give a few bullet-point thoughts:

1) If Bailey and Bruce equated to "pretty good" drafts, who is even close to these two from the '06 draft?

2) Rafael Gonzalez was drafted in 2004 by Dan O'Brien.

3) I guess my major point from this thread is that judging college players in low A ball cannot "raise the bar" from drafts which have yielded Bruce and Bailey. It makes no logical sense.

Now to answer your question. Where do I expect a 2006 draft pick to be right now, regardless of age or level of competition? That depends on a few things. It HAS to be with regard to their age. It also has to be with regard to their draft position. A first-round college pick should be more advanced than a 7th round high school pick, no? Where they should be is on a case by case basis. Maybe they should be in Low A...that's fine. But we shouldn't be deeming the '06 draft a winner because of their success there.

Listen...I think these guys are having good season so far. But, IMO, they should be having some success for them to currently have some worth. If they were getting shelled in Low A, I'd be worried. Low A isn't exactly cream of the crop.

Here's a real life example of what I am trying to say.

2nd round picks from 2006:

21 year old pitcher in Low A (will be 22 in July '07): 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA. 56-5 K/BB ratio. .237 BAA, 0.98 WHIP.

19 year old pitcher in Low A (won't be 20 until February '08): 5-3 with a 2.06 ERA. 62-7 K/BB ratio. .237 BAA, 1.01 WHIP.

Which season has been more impressive so far? All things being equal (I'm not sure about lineups each have faced and league/ballpark effects), the 19 year old is having a more impressive season because of his age. The 21 year old is obviously Sean Watson and the 19 year old is Brett Anderson for Arizona. Anderson is someone people were predicting to go early on in the draft and he dropped into the 2nd round. I know I was dying for Cincy to pick him. He's 3 years behind Watson and is having virtually the same season. Natural progression would lead anyone to believe that Anderson should improve and, in 3 years, be better than what he is now. But as we know, nothing is a guarantee in this game.

That's my thought process. Take it for what it's worth.

[edabbs44]

And yet Edabbs somehow doesn't grasp that point lmfao. I have just discovered how to come off as mister wise guy :D it is a simple plan slam all prospects after all only 5 of the 40 make it at best and thus I am more right than wrong ;)

Let me know who I slammed. To say that the Krivsky has raised the bar from the drafts that have yielded Bailey and Bruce is very risky. We are talking about college guys who are having success in Low A. They haven't even been in pro baseball for a year. Bailey and Bruce are two of the best prospects in all of baseball. Let's give those guys a little time before we compare them to other top shelf talents. They might end up being better. Or they might flame out.

[Red Heeler]

Are we grading the drafting ability of Krivsky or the outcome of the 2006 draft? These are two very distinct questions. The outcome of the 2004 draft is that Homer Bailey has become one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The strategy of drafting Bailey that high in the first round is still poor because history has shown that high school pitchers are nearly impossible to accurately predict.

If we are grading Krivsky's drafting last year, it is suspect. Drafting a project like Stubbs in the first round when your team needs contributors sooner rather than later is foolish. Watson and Valaika are off to very good starts on their pro careers, however they appeared to have been overdrafted at the time. It is too early in Krivsky's career to make any kind of call on whether he was lucky in drafting them or does he have a knack for identifying talent that others have overlooked.

[HokieRed]

By the way, Lincecum is beating Roy Oswalt tonight. That's what you call "raising the bar" in drafting.

[dougdirt]

If we are grading Krivsky's drafting last year, it is suspect. Drafting a project like Stubbs in the first round when your team needs contributors sooner rather than later is foolish. Watson and Valaika are off to very good starts on their pro careers, however they appeared to have been overdrafted at the time. It is too early in Krivsky's career to make any kind of call on whether he was lucky in drafting them or does he have a knack for identifying talent that others have overlooked.

We will disagree on this point. To draft someone simply because they can contribute faster is poor decision making at its finest. If you think that player A can be a better player 5-6 years down the road, but that player B will reach the majors a year and a half faster, but only be 75% of the player A.... it would be extremely foolish to take player B. Chris Valaika did not appear to be overdrafted at the time, Watson I will give you, but there were rumors that he would have been taken later in the second round by a few other teams.... so he was not completely over drafted.

[jmcclain19]

I think its a huge mistake to call anything "Krivsky's" draft or "O'Brien's" draft.

I have a long time friend & neighbor who is currently an MLB scouting director. He's told me on plenty of occasions the GM's role in the draft is extremely limited - and he has nearly total autonomy - and he's been thru 2 GMs. The current GM is even less into the draft than the prior - last year my friend pretty much told him he wanted player X unless he was picked before, then he wanted player Y. The GM pretty much said sure thing whatever you want to do. And that player is having a monster season so far. I'm sure all over baseball there are different levels of involvement, but even draft connoisseur Billy Beane still lets his guys make the decisions.

So thank or blame Terry Reynolds or Chris Buckley.

[Aronchis]

I think its a huge mistake to call anything "Krivsky's" draft or "O'Brien's" draft.

I have a long time friend & neighbor who is currently an MLB scouting director. He's told me on plenty of occasions the GM's role in the draft is extremely limited - and he has nearly total autonomy - and he's been thru 2 GMs. The current GM is even less into the draft than the prior - last year my friend pretty much told him he wanted player X unless he was picked before, then he wanted player Y. The GM pretty much said sure thing whatever you want to do. And that player is having a monster season so far. I'm sure all over baseball there are different levels of involvement, but even draft connoisseur Billy Beane still lets his guys make the decisions.

So thank or blame Terry Reynolds or Chris Buckley.


Good point. Though Terry Renyolds was against drafting HS pitchers in the first round in his Dodger days. Considering the time it took the Reds to draft in 2004, I wonder who really made that final call. I remember waiting for the pick, it was like getting NFLish in its delay lol.

I think it was pretty clear from Buckley's quotes, he was pushing for Stubbs.

[HBP]

I think it was pretty clear from Buckley's quotes, he was pushing for Stubbs.

Definitely
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491219&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

"[He] as all the tools you look for, plays at a top-flight program," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. "We're thrilled to have him. For me, he was the best athlete in the draft, so we're excited to have him with the eighth pick."

"He's a top-flight center fielder, he's got all the skills," general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're just real pleased to get him. I trusted Chris and his staff to do the right thing, and pick the best player in each round."

[Red Heeler]

We will disagree on this point. To draft someone simply because they can contribute faster is poor decision making at its finest. If you think that player A can be a better player 5-6 years down the road, but that player B will reach the majors a year and a half faster, but only be 75% of the player A.... it would be extremely foolish to take player B. Chris Valaika did not appear to be overdrafted at the time, Watson I will give you, but there were rumors that he would have been taken later in the second round by a few other teams.... so he was not completely over drafted.

Doug,
The problem comes with trying to project guys who are a long ways off from the majors. Toolsy players with questions about their baseball skills miss their projections a lot more often than they hit them (see Pena, Wily Mo).

I'm certainly not advocating picking a player who is most likely a middle reliever over a potential ace just because the relief pitcher is closer to the majors. I'm saying that I would pick a pitcher who is LIKELY to be a #3 starter in two years over a pitcher who COULD be an ace in five years.

[dougdirt]

Doug,
The problem comes with trying to project guys who are a long ways off from the majors. Toolsy players with questions about their baseball skills miss their projections a lot more often than they hit them (see Pena, Wily Mo).

I'm certainly not advocating picking a player who is most likely a middle reliever over a potential ace just because the relief pitcher is closer to the majors. I'm saying that I would pick a pitcher who is LIKELY to be a #3 starter in two years over a pitcher who COULD be an ace in five years.

There is a difference in drafting a toolsy guy who isnt much of a baseball player over a solid player who is close, but to take a guy who you think can be ready in a year rather than take a guy who you think will be better and ready in 2.5 years would be poor drafting in my mind.