PDA

View Full Version : Adam Dunn's yo-yo season.



texasdave
05-21-2007, 01:20 PM
So far AD'S season has seen several ups and downs. He has four distinct streaks - two hot and two cold.



DUNN UP DOWN UP DOWN
PIT/PA 3.6 4.5 4.1 5.0
OBP 0.436 0.300 0.421 0.250
SLG 0.735 0.273 0.896 0.143
OPS 1.171 0.573 1.317 0.393
K% 20.5% 40.0% 29.8% 46.9%
BB% 12.8% 12.0% 15.8% 9.4%
R/PG 4.0 4.6 5.9 3.1


From these numbers it is obvious that AD's streaks tend to run towards the extremes. When he is hot he can carry a team and when he his cold you might as well send up Juan Castro to pinch-hit for him.

1)He sees many more pitches when he is cold. This seems to go against the suggested wisdom that he should be patient and wait for a pitch that he can drive.
2)Even though he is much more patient during his cold streaks he draws less walks. In his latest streak he is seeing roughly 5 pitches per at-bat but has drawn only 3 walks in 32 PA. Being more selective is not helping him draw walks.
3)This team goes as AD goes. In his two hot streaks the Reds have averaged almost 5 runs a game. In his two cold streaks that average drops to roughly
3.8 run per game.
4)Where AD hits in the lineup seems to make little difference to how he performs. In his first hot streak he hit 2nd a majority of the time. In his second hot streak his at-bats came exclusively in the 5th and 6th spots in the batting order.

So it would seem that the team will have to ride out the ups and downs with Dunn. Take the good with the bad it seems. Collectively he is still putting up some pretty good numbers.

During the Sunday Game Thread someone bemoaned the fact that AD had no protection in the 6th hole and offered that up as a reason why he wasn't hitting. Here is a cursory study that seems to contradict that assertion.

I looked at AD's best and worst seasons OPS-wise (2004 and 2006). I logged the players who hit behind Adam during those two seasons and then weighted their OPS-es to come up with a weighted-average OPS for the hitters for those two seasons.



2004 2006
OPS 0.957 0.855
PROTECT 0.757 0.835
GRIFFEY 3 28
PA-2ND 0 144


In 2004 AD recorded his high in OPS at .957. However during 2004 the weighted OPS of the hitters who batted behind him was only .757. In 2006 he had worst season OPS-wise at .855. But you can that the hitters who hit behind him were much stronger. They compiled a weighted OPS of .835 - nearly 80 points higher than in 2004.
The three players who hit behind AD in 2004 were Jimenez, Pena and Larue. In 2006 they were Encarnacion, Kearns and Griffey. Which threesome seems likely to offer more protection? I would contend the 2006 group.
Another item I would like to point out is that Junior rarely protected AD in 2004 (3 games), but batted him much more often in 2006 (28 games).
Some say that the 2nd spot in the lineup is a the magic spot for Adam. Interestingly he did not have a single PA in his best season (2004), but had roughly 1/5 of his PAs in the second spot in his worst season (2006).

This was a quick study but it seems to indicate that the amount of 'protection' AD receives has little bearing on how he performs.

hebroncougar
05-21-2007, 01:21 PM
Could have something to do with the pitching he's seeing during the hot/cold streaks as well. It goes against both common and statistical sense that when he has more patience, he draws less walks.

Screwball
05-21-2007, 01:29 PM
Very interesting stuff texasdave. I knew AD was running hot and cold this year, but I didn't realize how stark a contrast his streaks are.

As for your points #1 and 2, I've noticed that when he's in one of his cold streaks he almost invariably fouls off any mistake pitch that he would otherwise drive. It drives the pitch per plate attempt up, and gets one strike close to a K. It's no secret that when you get 2 strikes on Adam Dunn, throw a decent breaking ball and he'll almost always swing and miss, especially in a cold streak.

However, I did find it interesting that even in his nasty slumps, his walk rate remains relatively constant.

44Magnum
05-21-2007, 01:29 PM
I've never seen a player that can be so hot and then so cold for such extended periods of time. Well, maybe except for Aaron Boone.

TeamSelig
05-21-2007, 02:31 PM
Seems like when he is struggling he takes alot of pitches for strikes. Some of these pitches are right down the middle. Most are borderline though.

I don't exactly want him free swinging all crazy-like, but maybe he is less focused at times which causes him to misjudge balls/strikes.