A Positive Outlook on the 2007 season

[redsandrails]

Yes I know, we're all pretty enraged about the pathetic nature of this team of late. However, on paper this team is NOT that bad. While that's probably more frustrating than having specific players struggling that can be directly blamed, it means that a lot of guys still have trade value.

The way Griffey is playing, pacing for a solid .300, 40, 110 or so campaign, there should be several takers come July. We definately won't have to "give him away" like many people seem to think.

The key to the season though will be the trading chips. Hoepfully we won't have to trade Arroyo or Harang unless there's an incredible return, but we still have a handful of guys who can have some value. Dunn and Griffey will likely have pretty good return, probably an A prospect or pretty solid almost ml-ready talent for each. Also, if Hatteberg, Weathers and Freel can improve things they might be able to command B level-return. Obviously unless Milton returns to form in mid-June in top form he will not command much at all, and Lohse, Conine and Ross/Valentin might bring C level returns if they get things together.

As well as Votto has been hitting lately and Homer's pitching, both of these guys will probably come up and contribute. The only major concern I have is E.E... if he can start hitting for power then it will be fine but at this point he really needs to start hitting. .284 SLG is just pathetic. If Hamilton can at least keep it up then we have at least a solid core for next season.

The fact that Hamilton has shown that he can at least play to a starting caliber major league level, its incredible. None of us had any idea that he could do that until March; if he can keep it up then all of the sudden we fill another hole in the lineup.

Phillips's season so far has been pretty darn good too. Besides his OBP concerns, his overall offensive game is among the best for 2B. Given his slightly above average for a 2B stats last season, that is pretty darn good. He's cheap and he is a keeper in my eyes.

At least we will be able to acquire a few solid pieces from Griffey/Dunn trades to add to an already solid group of young/emerging players. The other trades probably won't bring too much but if WK is smart we can do pretty well. Besides, a firesale will just open up a lot of salary for this offseason. While this season is toast, at least realize that if things are done right for the remainder of this season and the offseason, next season we can be contenders.

[cincrazy]

I like your optimism, but I'm thinking more towards 2009-10. Next year we will have more talent, but that doesn't always add up to more wins.

Like you, I like the future core of this team. But next year we will have a very young team, and they're going to have their growing pains. But that will be a heck of a lot better to watch than what we're watching now.

[RedEye]

I really hope you are right. I do wonder, however, whether both Griffey and Dunn will be traded. Offensive anchors are hard to come by, and we have two of them right now. If we trade both, we might be sorry later. I say trade Griffey and keep Dunn on for his option contract. These are quite possibly the best years of his career, especially given his conditioning and body type. I would wager that his peak value will be either in 2009 or 2010 (although I'd rather not trade him at all, to be honest).

[redsandrails]

Well, I think that contention in 2008 will have question marks (if a 2007 firesale did occur). First, how much will management spend in the offseason. If we rebuild the bullpen (correctly this time) and get a few key FA's, then 2008 will be solid. However, hopefully by 2009 a lot of the growing pains of the young guys will be worked out and Bruce will also likely be in the mix.

[redsupport]

Here is a positive outlook
I am positive that this is the utter absolute value of ineptitude

[RedEye]

Well, I think that contention in 2008 will have question marks (if a 2007 firesale did occur). First, how much will management spend in the offseason. If we rebuild the bullpen (correctly this time) and get a few key FA's, then 2008 will be solid. However, hopefully by 2009 a lot of the growing pains of the young guys will be worked out and Bruce will also likely be in the mix.

Good point. I would be more into the idea of Griff and Dunn being traded if I knew without a doubt that the money saved would be spent wisely. Unfortunately, I can't say I have that faith in Wayne at this point.

[redsandrails]

Well even if it weren't spent all at, that's ok too. As long as it would eventually back towards the team. Say for instance a 50M payroll in 2008, but say 15M profit. Then in say 2010 or 2011 when theres 70M revenue and say a need for an 80 or 85 million payroll (after a lot of guys hit arbitration), operate with a defecit and use these profits from 2008. If management is putting significant $ out there to build a pretty confident contender then the fans will come and Cincy will again be able to support a big or even upper-mid market payroll.

The only thing that will kill this philosophy is salary inflation, and it looks for the time being that this has peaked. In a recent thread on ORG I showed that many of the pending FA's were struggling. If a guy like Michael Young finishes with like a .730 OPS (he's currently at .681), no one is going to give him a 6 yr 100M contract. Young and many other guys like A. Jones, B. Abreu, etc., etc. would rather opt for one year deals if they continue to struggle. Then, after solid 2008 campaigns, go after the big bucks. With the 2008 FA class already loaded, the guys who opt for 1 yr. deals after 2007 will further improve the buyers market in 2008. The main reason the 2006 offseason was so costly was the lack of blue chip players and the overpaying for mediocricy. I think that 2008 will have so many blue chip guys that the contracts handed to players will either stabilize or even go downward.

[RedEye]

Well even if it weren't spent all at, that's ok too. As long as it would eventually back towards the team. Say for instance a 50M payroll in 2008, but say 15M profit. Then in say 2010 or 2011 when theres 70M revenue and say a need for an 80 or 85 million payroll (after a lot of guys hit arbitration), operate with a defecit and use these profits from 2008. If management is putting significant $ out there to build a pretty confident contender then the fans will come and Cincy will again be able to support a big or even upper-mid market payroll.

If I knew their thinking was as sound as yours, I'd be a lot more confident.