My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

[indy_dave00]

Personally the Reds keep saying Bailey isn't ready- say he needs to work more with his 3rd pitch. Just curious put yourself in Homer's place 21 year old 4-1 1.99 era wouldn't you in some way wonder if I need a 3rd pitch so bad-how am I succeeding here allowing barely 5 hits per every 9 innings ? While Livingston is 0-3 3.88 era and league is hitting .300 against is recalled twice-sorry thinking back a million years ago to when I was 21 and thought I knew it all.

If he pitches well again tonight maybe they should recall him and let him learn in the majors. As I remember Mario Soto and Jose Rijo were pretty successful with 2 pitches.

If Homer gets hammered up here perhaps it would cement in his head the need for that 3rd pitch. But if I'm 21 and rated in top 5 pitching prospects in all of baseball and very unhittable in AAA - I might be reluctant to use a 3rd pitch very often.

Just thinking back a million years to when I was 21 - tended to have to learn the hard way a little.

[dougdirt]

Homer knows that when he comes up, its going to be for good. Livingston has been back and forth now because of what he is.

[PuffyPig]

When Homers strikes out more guys and walks less, he will be ready.

Pitchers who let the ball be hit into play fail in Cincy.

Bailey needs to improve to be successful in Cincy.

[M2]

The problem with headstrong kids learning in the majors is that they have a bad habit of blowing out their arms.

Plus, Homer's problem isn't that he's only got two pitches. He's really only got one. His curve breaks, but he can't locate it. His changeup is still a long way off. Right now the organization can yank Homer when his mechanics get fiercely out of whack or when he tires and starts missing locations. It can protect him from beatings and excessive wear and tear. It can give him 10 days off when the situation calls for it.

Those things won't happen in the majors. There won't be any kid gloves for him. IMO, if the franchise is this cautious with him in AAA (and I'm all for it being this cautious) then the kid shouldn't be put on the spot for some horrific rippings in the majors.

Until he can go seven solid in AAA on a regular basis (and by that I mean for a three month stretch), he wouldn't get a taste of the majors if it were up to me. I know the franchise will pull the trigger long before that, but they aren't ready because you want/need them to be ready. Development takes a ridiculously long time. The Reds literally have nothing to lose at the moment so they can afford to show some patience.

[reds44]

Unless you have 2 amazing pitches, it's going to be very hard to suceed as a major league starting pitcher without a 3rd pitch. Ideally, you probably want a starter to have 4 pitches as it is.

Homer's not just having trouble throwing his secondary pitch for strikes, he is having issues with his fastball too.

"Let him learn at the majors" screams rushing him IMO. Everything I hear says he is making nice progress in Louisville, let him continue to learn down there.

I would not be surprised to see Wayne make a deal for a SP between now and Friday.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Bringing him up now isn't going to save the Reds' season. There's no point, IMO to risk having him get beaten around in the majors when he doesn't need to. Let him continue to work on his pitches/location to get better in AAA.

Just my take, but I think a lot of people just want to have something to look forward to when watching the rest of this season.

[RedEye]

Bringing him up now isn't going to save the Reds' season. There's no point, IMO to risk having him get beaten around in the majors when he doesn't need to. Let him continue to work on his pitches/location to get better in AAA.

Just my take, but I think a lot of people just want to have something to look forward to when watching the rest of this season.

Isn't there some merit to the argument that he should 'take his lumps' against the best competition? It seems to me that some teams have had success with this approach lately, bringing up very young prospects and letting them learn on the ML stage (Marlins, Tigers, to name a few). Is Homer significantly different than Bonderman when he was promoted? Much like parenting, doesn't it ultimately come to the character of the kid?

[AdamDunn]

Most importantly, Homer Bailey has never gone the distance. He doesn't throw his secondary pitches well enough to go long in his games. His outings consist of 5 innings and 8 strikeouts and no runs. But he racks up his pitching count because he can't throw strikes with his secondary stuff. If he can go deep into games in the minors, he won't go deep into games in the majors.

[membengal]

How do you know he doesn't throw his secondary pitches well enough to go deep? What do you know about what he's getting done at AAA? What is the red flag for you? His ridiculously low WHIP? The ridiculously low ERA? The last two starts of pure dominance?

You are knocking five innings of no runs? Seriously? That's something to be sad about now? I laugh. To keep from crying.

He is on a strict pitch count. Which he should be. That strict pitch count should continue even if he gets the call to the majors. Frankly, 100 pitches of the best Homer Bailey has is so far ahead of most of what this team throws out there in the majors on a regular basis that I find such panty-bunching laughable. If he "only" gets six innings per start in the majors? No big deal. Not if those six innings include only a few runs. I would take that in an instant.

[jojo]

How do you know he doesn't he throw is secondary pitches well enough to go deep? What do you know about what he's getting done at AAA? What is the red flag for you?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=58578&page=2


:fineprint

[membengal]

I don't read "icon" jojo. If you are asking why I didn't read that post in that thread before posting above, well, when I posted above that other post hadn't been written yet. And having now read it, I fully disagree with the take therein.

He's been asked to work on his changeup and curve. From what I understand, he has been. Predominantly. So, I would imagine, when he begins to mix the heater back in, his effectiveness will accelerate. All I am seeing is a guy with a dominant hits per nine at the age of 21 in AAA, accumulating such while not even throwing his best stuff.

Stop me when I get to something that isn't true.

[jojo]

I don't read "icon" jojo. If you are asking why I didn't read that post in that thread before posting above, well, when I posted above that other post hadn't been written yet. And having now read it, I fully disagree with the take therein.

He's been asked to work on his changeup and curve. From what I understand, he has been. Predominantly. So, I would imagine, when he begins to mix the heater back in, his effectiveness will accelerate. All I am seeing is a guy with a dominant hits per nine at the age of 21 in AAA, accumulating such while not even throwing his best stuff.

Stop me when I get to something that isn't true.

You can imagine whatever you want to imagine. Please, just chart a few of his starts and poke around for opinions of people who are/have been close to him recently. We have different ideas about evaluating pitchers-thats obvious. A plus fastball will only get a major league starter so far....

[membengal]

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

[Red Leader]

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

Having the talent to throw a good curve ball and the ability to throw a good curve ball to a major league hitter in a major league game are two totally different things. Think of it this way, if you're a pitcher and you're behind on a batter 3-0, 3-1, or 2-0, what pitch are you going to throw if you have command of one pitch, on/off command of a second pitch, and a third pitch that is not even major league average yet. Ummm, I'm guessing you're going to say the pitch you have command over. I would, too. And you know what? The hitter knows that as well. Homer's got to get to the point where he has major league command over more than just one pitch before they bring him up or he's going to get pounded on days where he doesn't have command of his curveball.

[dougdirt]

I agree with both Jojo and membengal on this one. How is that possible? I will tell you.

Jojo is right that for most of this season, Homer Bailey has struggled locating his offspeed stuff for strikes with any consistancy and that can both be seen in his numbers and just by watching him or talking to people who have.

Membengal is right that Homer has been fairly dominating as far as guys not being able to make much solid contact against him, which can also be seen by looking at his numbers.

Homer has been really good his last two starts, and this is where I think the two of you are wanting to disagree on. Jojo, I think wants to see it last a little longer and for Homer to have some sustainted success with his stuff before he is going to say that Homer is close to ready. Mem see's what Homer has done and is thinking that its all he needs to see because even before then his numbers were pretty good and now its looking so much better.

Guys feel free to tell me how wrong I am if I took what you said incorrectly.

[jojo]

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

I don't undertand the reason for your tone????

He does have a plus curve-that describes it's action, not his ability to locate it.

I'm not sure I agree with the assessment that his change-up is "rapidly improving".

Is he getting better? I think he is. Does he have more work to do? By all accounts, he does. Try to find a loud voice in the organisation (or from scouts outside it) that are wondering why Homer hasn't been called up yet.

[M2]

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

The plus plus curve doesn't hit the strikezone often enough though (or at least that's what everything I've read about Bailey keeps saying). Major league hitters aren't going to offer at it if it's consistently a ball, choosing instead to sit dead red. I'm not sure how rapid the changeup improvement is either. Supposedly he's throwing it more often, but I haven't seen any glowing statements about its quality. My guess is it would be a show me pitch in the majors, something you toss out of the strikezone in a pitcher's count just to plant a seed.

Anyway, my concern is that until Bailey can paint with the curve (and it's not easy to do) that major league hitters will work him something fierce and that he'll be burning up pre-arbitration time learning things he could have been learning in the minors.

The other possibility is the team could put him into a relief role, have him throw two innings every third day or something like that. It's easier to be an effectively wild reliever and it limits his exposure. Of course there might be a temptation to make him the closer, which I would avoid if the long-term plan is to have him in the rotation.

[membengal]

Doug, that pretty much sums it up. Like I said in the other thread, probably at an agree to disagree point on his readiness.

And, regarding his command, since he was apparently sent forth from spring training with a "work on off speed stuff edict", I am not the least bit worried about his command of those pitches off of his April work as the Bats played in the same relative ice box most teams did in April. "Command" of curve balls and change ups, I am led to understand, is harder to come by when your fingers are frozen.

Not surprisingly, as the weather has heated up, Bailey's "command" of those pitches is reportedly improving. Perhaps a combination of throwing a bunch of those pitches per his marching orders in April and the better weather? Who knows? All I know is he had done everything he's been asked to, and only Kevin Slowey, in a quick look at AAA stats, was putting up consistently better numbers. And even the vet-fetish Twins finally just called Slowey up.

I don't mean for "tone" jojo, with you or anyone. Just noting that his numbers reveal a guy owning his competition. Which appears to frustrate, at least in some respect, the arguments that he is not ready. Certainly big league batters will lay off a curve ball that is not locating easier than AAA hitters will. But the gap isn't as much top to bottom as some of you make out. And, from what I have heard, that curve ball is starting to locate with authority.

All of which tells me he is close. Damn close. I don't want him up on this current road trip, but when they come off it? Yeah, I would definititely like to see him up then, on the next home stand.

[jojo]

I agree with both Jojo and membengal on this one. How is that possible? I will tell you.

Jojo is right that for most of this season, Homer Bailey has struggled locating his offspeed stuff for strikes with any consistancy and that can both be seen in his numbers and just by watching him or talking to people who have.

Membengal is right that Homer has been fairly dominating as far as guys not being able to make much solid contact against him, which can also be seen by looking at his numbers.

Homer has been really good his last two starts, and this is where I think the two of you are wanting to disagree on. Jojo, I think wants to see it last a little longer and for Homer to have some sustainted success with his stuff before he is going to say that Homer is close to ready. Mem see's what Homer has done and is thinking that its all he needs to see because even before then his numbers were pretty good and now its looking so much better.

Guys feel free to tell me how wrong I am if I took what you said incorrectly.

All I'm loooking for out of Homer is major league command of his fastball and curve.... while it would be nice to have three major league pitches, with command of two PLUS pitches, he can learn the changeup in the big leagues IMHO.

Like RMR summed it up in the other Homer thread....Homer needs to be more efficient with his pitches. That's really all I'm saying.

[membengal]

I presume we can agree that 96 pitches, seven innings, eight Ks, no walks, is pretty efficient? Particularly against a line-up last night that was replete with guys that own plenty of major league experience?

[dougdirt]

I'm not sure how rapid the changeup improvement is either. Supposedly he's throwing it more often, but I haven't seen any glowing statements about its quality. My guess is it would be a show me pitch in the majors, something you toss out of the strikezone in a pitcher's count just to plant a seed.

I cant say that I have seen the change up in action since his second start of the year, but I have listened to most of his starts and Homer is showing the change up and at least at times is throwing it for strikes. I recall one time he actually threw back to back change ups to a batter who swung through both of them.

Now, whether or not that is happening with consistancy, I cant say. I do think that at least for now he is using it a little more than a 'show me' pitch.

[Red Leader]

Sometimes I think people (and I'm not saying you at all, membengal, because I understand your points, just "people" in general) want the Reds to call up Bailey so they can see him in a Reds uniform. So they can watch him pitch in the big leagues and have a feeling like "ahhh, the Reds drafted and groomed this kid, this is the beginning of a new era of Reds baseball!" I admit, it's been awhile since the Reds have had an honest to God decent starting pitcher, but I'll bet half of those people will be the first in line to call him a sham when/if he struggles when he's brought up and not show patience with him.

[membengal]

Well I certainly don't want to be lumped in with a "satisfy me now" crowd. IF he were brought up, I would want it for the duration, and would expect lumps.

[Red Leader]

Well I certainly don't want to be lumped in with a "satisfy me now" crowd. IF he were brought up, I would want it for the duration, and would expect lumps.

As I said, I wasn't putting you in that group. I understand your points and realize that you know he's not going to be Nolan Ryan in his prime out of the shoot, I was making a general statement.

Some of the things I've heard on local sports radio are just mind boggling. One person I heard said that if the Reds brought Homer up now, "he'd be the starting pitcher in the All-Star game this year", but, "they don't want to bring him up because everyone in their starting rotation is already overpaid and they don't want to eat those contracts to make room for him."

Unbelievable.

[membengal]

Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.

[M2]

I cant say that I have seen the change up in action since his second start of the year, but I have listened to most of his starts and Homer is showing the change up and at least at times is throwing it for strikes. I recall one time he actually threw back to back change ups to a batter who swung through both of them.

Now, whether or not that is happening with consistancy, I cant say. I do think that at least for now he is using it a little more than a 'show me' pitch.

I'm guessing it would be a show me pitch in the majors. In AAA he can dare a little more with it, experiment. You experiment too much in the majors and you risk pulling a neck muscle craning your head around to see all those balls getting blasted past you.

That's really the tough part about the situation he's in. Will he have the space to learn the things he still needs to learn in the majors or will he have to scrap certain things in the interest of survival?

[membengal]

Fair point M2, and the biggest thing, perhaps, in the favor or you, red leader, jojo and others on his staying put, is that the coaching staff in Cincy right now is not, frankly, a collection of guys I particularly trust to help him learn those things without scrapping that which is not working.

A better coaching situation would make me feel better about his development in Cincy, candidly.

[Falls City Beer]

Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.

Could it be that Bonderman is the better of the two pitchers and that "ceiling" is more myth vis. pitchers than reality?

I'm not saying that that's necessarily the case, but I don't think that one should simply discard the suggestion because x-amount of scouts say it's not so.

[M2]

Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs

He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.

[Falls City Beer]

He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.

He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.

[Matt700wlw]

He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.

If new ownership is really serious about winning, then we shouldn't have to worry about him walking away a free agent before he's 27

[Red Leader]

Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.


Agreed on that, especially the first part.

I've seen you compare Bonderman a couple times with Bailey. It may be a fair comp age-wise, but IIRC, Bonderman had major league command of 2 pitches (fastball, slider) when he was brought up to the majors. He also had a changeup and a curve that was an average - above average pitch, but he had trouble commanding them. Still, if he was having problems locating his fastball, he had his slider to go to. Also, he would have lost 20 games that first year had they not skipped his starts at the end of the year. He finished with 19 L's, a 5.56 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, allowed 23 HR's.

[dougdirt]

He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.

Define 'nowhere near'.... because I take that as within a full run of ERA and I think Homer Bailey could easily post a 5.89 ERA or lower right now in the NL.... if he just threw fastballs.

[Falls City Beer]

Define 'nowhere near'.... because I take that as within a full run of ERA and I think Homer Bailey could easily post a 5.89 ERA or lower right now in the NL.... if he just threw fastballs.

I seriously, seriously doubt he'd have a 5.89 ERA as a starter just throwing fastballs.

And, of course, performance is more than ERA: K/9, OPSA, HRs surrendered, BB totals--all far more important.

[membengal]

Red Leader, I was dead serious that I would not flinch if Bailey had a rough go of it in Cincy, and am fully aware of what Bonderman's first year was. I am also aware of the success it has laid the groundwork for.

Again, it's simply a philosophical difference at this point, and neither side, frankly, is wrong. Or right. There are no guarantees that whatever they do is the right thing to do. Or not do.

But if it were me, I would bring him up in June about 24 hours after the window closes to start his Super 2 stuff early. That's me.

[dougdirt]

I seriously, seriously doubt he'd have a 5.89 ERA as a starter just throwing fastballs.

And, of course, performance is more than ERA: K/9, OPSA, HRs surrendered, BB totals--all far more important.

Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.

[jojo]

Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.

I don't doubt that Bailey could post and ERA under 6 right now... I just don't see who that would help anyone....

[Falls City Beer]

Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.

That's the trouble with walking a lot of people and having command of only one MLB pitch--you won't stick around long enough to put up the kind of K totals that Bonderman put up in 2004. It's a delicate balance; in a lot of ways, it's crucial for a young pitcher to start well because if he doesn't then he's buried beneath a bunch of grotesque numbers (high ERA, low Ks, high BBs) that he may not bounce back from.

[dougdirt]

That's the trouble with walking a lot of people and having command of only one MLB pitch--you won't stick around long enough to put up the kind of K totals that Bonderman put up in 2004. It's a delicate balance; in a lot of ways, it's crucial for a young pitcher to start well because if he doesn't then he's buried beneath a bunch of grotesque numbers (high ERA, low Ks, high BBs) that he may not bounce back from.

He wont stick around to match those totals anyways.... Bonderman threw 180 innings that year, Bailey wont get close to that, even if they called him up today.

[Falls City Beer]

He wont stick around to match those totals anyways.... Bonderman threw 180 innings that year, Bailey wont get close to that, even if they called him up today.

I understand that. You're missing my point--I was speaking hypothetically about Bailey starting the season in MLB and replicating Bonderman's 2004 numbers.

[dougdirt]

I understand that. You're missing my point--I was speaking hypothetically about Bailey starting the season in MLB and replicating Bonderman's 2004 numbers.

Hypothetically he could be having the exact same season he is having in AAA.

[Matt700wlw]

Hypothetically he could be having the exact same season he is having in AAA.

Which would make him the Reds, and a legitimate, ace.

[M2]

He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.

I'd put up with one year like Bonderman's 2004. The Tigers paid for two, plus that dog JB put on in 2003. Had he been a rookie in 2005, he'd right now be a plus pitcher staring at arbitration starting next season instead of on a four-year, $38M contract at age 24. Basically what I'm saying here is don't pay for a 21-and-under pitcher unless he's Dwight Gooden (a full grown man with a a full grown man's stuff). I'd trade Homer at 21 for Homer at 27.

[membengal]

But would Bonderman have still gone through an adjustment upon getting up in 2005? I say yes. Perhaps it would not have been like 2003, but he also would not have gone straight to his 2005 numbers I don't imagine. The work he did in Detroit in 2003 and 2004 paved the way for his 2005...

[Falls City Beer]

But would Bonderman have still gone through an adjustment upon getting up in 2005? I say yes. Perhaps it would not have been like 2003, but he also would not have gone straight to his 2005 numbers I don't imagine. The work he did in Detroit in 2003 and 2004 paved the way for his 2005...

Exactly my question--that presupposes adjustments made at AAA would transfer to MLB success.

I'd pay 5-7 million for Bonderman's 2004--it was a better season than what Harang's putting up currently, in a much tougher offensive division.

Bonderman's career arc has been about all you can ask for. Plus he looks like Powder combined with Michael Chiklis--which is rad.

[Betterread]

Exactly my question--that presupposes adjustments made at AAA would transfer to MLB success.

I'd pay 5-7 million for Bonderman's 2004--it was a better season than what Harang's putting up currently, in a much tougher offensive division.

Bonderman's career arc has been about all you can ask for. Plus he looks like Powder combined with Michael Chiklis--which is rad.

Bailey's career arc has been one of emphatic developmental dominance. And it has been fun to watch. Too bad you are analyzing it from your computer, instead of watching him pitch. If you saw him pitch and Jay Bruce hit, you would see young talent the Reds have not had since Adam Dunn. I'm really sorry for you, you're missing something unique and special in not appreciating these two special talents.

[Falls City Beer]

Bailey's career arc has been one of emphatic developmental dominance. And it has been fun to watch. Too bad you are analyzing it from your computer, instead of watching him pitch. If you saw him pitch and Jay Bruce hit, you would see young talent the Reds have not had since Adam Dunn. I'm really sorry for you, you're missing something unique and special in not appreciating these two special talents.

See, this is what's wrong with this board--one questioning take on a minor league arm and it's all out the window.

I don't know how many times I've stated my admiration for Bruce as a player and a prospect. To me, he's far more valuable to the future of the franchise than Bailey. He's bar none the Reds' best prospect.

[Matt700wlw]

See, this is what's wrong with this board--one questioning take on a minor league arm and it's all out the window.

I don't know how many times I've stated my admiration for Bruce as a player and a prospect. To me, he's far more valuable to the future of the franchise than Bailey. He's bar none the Reds' best prospect.


Bruce is very important....but without pitching, it won't matter how good he is...they won't win

[Betterread]

double post

[Betterread]

See, this is what's wrong with this board--one questioning take on a minor league arm and it's all out the window.

I don't know how many times I've stated my admiration for Bruce as a player and a prospect. To me, he's far more valuable to the future of the franchise than Bailey. He's bar none the Reds' best prospect.

I was too quick to criticise you about Bruce; I was mistaken.
Just as you were very critical of Bonderman. Last year when he pitched against the Reds, I remember debating his merits with you - you though he was a mediocrity. It looks like you changed your mind since then. Perhaps that will happen with Bailey, as well.

[TC81190]

See, this is what's wrong with this board--one questioning take on a minor league arm and it's all out the window.

I don't know how many times I've stated my admiration for Bruce as a player and a prospect. To me, he's far more valuable to the future of the franchise than Bailey. He's bar none the Reds' best prospect.

It never ends here, does it? :rolleyes:

[Aronchis]

Bailey is much more valuable than Bruce for the Reds future. Bruce, while a good prospect, is overvalued on these boards. He isn't a sure thing "superstar" like so many believe. Matter of fact, he more than likely becomes a 'good player' but not a superstar.

If Bailey turns into a "ace" pitcher, great, but if he "just" turns into typical number 2, that is much better than Bruce turning into a good player.

Starting pitching is the lifeblood of a franchise.

[TC81190]

Bailey is much more valuable than Bruce for the Reds future. Bruce, while a good prospect, is overvalued on these boards. He isn't a sure thing "superstar" like so many believe. Matter of fact, he more than likely becomes a 'good player' but not a superstar.

If Bailey turns into a "ace" pitcher, great, but if he "just" turns into typical number 2, that is much better than Bruce turning into a good player.

Starting pitching is the lifeblood of a franchise.


I agree here. Bruce seems to be looked upon as a sure thing to go .320/.400./.600 here. Which I think he can, but he's not a lock.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bailey is much more valuable than Bruce for the Reds future. Bruce, while a good prospect, is overvalued on these boards. He isn't a sure thing "superstar" like so many believe. Matter of fact, he more than likely becomes a 'good player' but not a superstar.

If Bailey turns into a "ace" pitcher, great, but if he "just" turns into typical number 2, that is much better than Bruce turning into a good player.

Starting pitching is the lifeblood of a franchise.

As much as you hate it, yes, Jay Bruce is a future superstar.

Jay Bruce is the best hitting prospect in baseball.

[Aronchis]

As much as you hate it, yes, Jay Bruce is a future superstar.

Jay Bruce is the best hitting prospect in baseball.

Uh, I guess you have not seen what Justin Upton has done in the UPPER minors eh?

Bruce MAY be a superstar, but everybody thought Kearns and Dunn would be superstars by this time as well. Lets keep a little perspective.

[TC81190]

As much as you hate it, yes, Jay Bruce is a future superstar.

Jay Bruce is the best hitting prospect in baseball.

I hope he is as good as I think he will be.

And I think right now I'd take Upton as the best, but thats like saying Beltran is better than Wells.

[dougdirt]

Uh, I guess you have not seen what Justin Upton has done in the UPPER minors eh?

Bruce MAY be a superstar, but everybody thought Kearns and Dunn would be superstars by this time as well. Lets keep a little perspective.

And relative to age and level, Jay Bruce is so far ahead of both of them its not even funny.

[Aronchis]

And relative to age and level, Jay Bruce is so far ahead of both of them its not even funny.

Yeah, but Dunn's development was delayed abit with football. Kearns simply(at least IMO) didn't have the ceiling we thought he had. Once the major league pitchers figured him out, he declined(Ray King or no Ray King).

Maybe Bruce destroys the upper minors next year like Upton is this year, but that still doesn't make a sure superstar. It isn't "how far along" are you, but "how good are you going to be". His major league time will make that call.

[dougdirt]

Yeah, but Dunn's development was delayed abit with football. Kearns simply(at least IMO) didn't have the ceiling we thought he had. Once the major league pitchers figured him out, he declined(Ray King or no Ray King).

Maybe Bruce destroys the upper minors next year like Upton is this year, but that still doesn't make a sure superstar. It isn't "how far along" are you, but "how good are you going to be". His major league time will make that call.

Jay will hit just fine in AA this year, count on that one.

[Matt700wlw]

combined minor league numbers
23- 12
2.90
69 games
307 IP.... 235 hits and 136 walks with 333 K's
14 home runs (1 per 22 innings)

(lance's blog)