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View Full Version : Reds won't draft for big-league needs --MLB.com Mark Sheldon 5/30/07



Jpup
05-30-2007, 12:04 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070529&content_id=1992430&vkey=draft2007&fext=.jsp


Reds won't draft for big-league needs
Cincinnati gets 15th pick in first round of First-Year Player Draft
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- Endless crisscrossing of the country to take last looks at players. A cellphone is constantly ringing with scouts on the other end. When the traveling is done, hours and hours of meetings loom ahead.

Reds scouting director Chris Buckley loves every bit of it. It just means the First-Year Player Draft is getting closer.

"The draft is sort of like Christmas," Buckley said. "You want to make sure you see all of your presents."

The 2007 First-Year Player Draft is June 7-8 at Disney's Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando. The first round will be aired on ESPN2 beginning at 2 p.m. ET. MLB.com will have every pick of the 50-round draft from start to finish.

Based on last season's 80-82 finish, Cincinnati will draft 15th in the first round this year. Last year, the Reds used the eighth overall pick to select outfielder Drew Stubbs from the University of Texas.

"Because we're dead set in the middle, a lot of guys we're looking at could be gone ahead of us," Buckley said. "There could be guys falling with signability issues. Last year at No. 8, you have a little better handle on it. When you're down this deep, it's kind of hard to ask the first 14 teams what they're doing."

If they're still on the board at No. 15, the Reds could be interested in high school third baseman/first baseman Mike Moustakas out of Chatsworth, Calif., or Missouri State left-handed pitcher Ross Dettweiler. However, both players are projected as top 10 prospects by Baseball America.

Other potential names could be high school lefty Josh Smoker from Georgia, or third baseman Kevin Ahrens out of Memorial High School in Houston, Texas.

Unlike the counterpart drafts of the NFL or NBA, teams at the MLB draft rarely aim to select players based on immediate needs at the big-league level. Players selected even in the first couple of rounds could take up to four or five years to reach the Majors.

All teams have organizational needs at every level, but Buckley even avoids basing the Reds' draft board exclusively on need.

"When you're drafting out of need, you end up elevating players and pushing them," Buckley said. "I'm against drafting for need."

The stakes are high when selecting unproven young talent, especially in the top round. Stubbs received a $2 million bonus when he signed last summer. The 2005 first-round pick, outfielder Jay Bruce, received a $1.8 million bonus.

Last year, 15 of the Reds' first 18 picks -- and 34 of 50 overall -- were players taken out of college. Buckley felt the draft had a stronger high school crop than it did last year. Cincinnati also selected 23 pitchers.

"I always strive for balance, not too far one way or another," Buckley said. "There is such an attrition rate with pitching. You like to sign a lot of them in order to get a few of them."

The Reds signed each of the first 17 picks last year, and 31 players overall.

"It's a business of assets," Buckley said. "We certainly try to put as many assets into our farm system as we can. Eventually, we might have to trade some of our assets to get things we don't have."

Here are the Reds' past three first-round draft picks:

OF Drew Stubbs, 2006 (eighth overall): A three-year starter at the University of Texas, Stubbs signed quickly and batted .252 with six homers and 24 RBIs in 56 games with rookie-level Billings. Although he's an exceptional athlete with speed, the organization is working with Stubbs to cut down on his strikeouts.

OF Jay Bruce, 2005 (12th overall): At advanced Class A Sarasota, the 20-year-old is among the Florida State League's batting leaders and remains one of the organization's top prospects with five-tool talent. In 2006, Bruce batted .291 with 16 homers and 81 RBIs for Class A Dayton and was Baseball America's low Class A player of the year.

RHP Homer Bailey, 2004 (seventh overall): The 21-year-old hard-throwing right-hander is on the cusp of reaching the Majors at Triple-A Louisville. Although many in the organization feel its top prospect has a few edges left to smooth -- namely his off-speed stuff -- Bailey's arrival to Cincinnati is a matter of when, not if.

Rising fast: SS Chris Valaika (third round, 2006)
In his first pro season, Valaika was the Pioneer League's MVP and set a league record with a 32-game hitting streak. Valaika is among the top Midwest League hitters this season with Class A Dayton.

Cinderella story: OF Carson Kainer (14th round, 2006)
A higher-round pick because of a kidney ailment, the University of Texas standout and teammate of Stubbs underwent a September kidney transplant. Able to begin limited workouts during Spring Training, Kainer began playing his first games in May for Class A Sarasota and hit his first home run. Although he'll have to take anti-rejection medication, he is expected to live a normal life and could become the first professional baseball player to reach the Majors after a kidney transplant.

Jonathon Mayo's Top 20 Draft Projection

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070523&content_id=1981250&vkey=draft2007&fext=.jsp


15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
This one falls under the category of hearing a player's name so much with one team that it's both hard to ignore and hard to not wonder if it's true. There was some talk the Reds would also be interested in Aumont should he slide here, but all of the buzz is that they've been on Houston-area infielder Ahrens all along. He plays shortstop in high school and isn't bad there, but the consensus is that he should move to third where he should profile better both offensively and defensively.

edabbs44
05-30-2007, 12:25 PM
I think I'll be happy as long as they don't select an OFer in the 1st. The draft is a crapshoot and all, but unless they have the next Griffey Jr sitting at their feet they should look elsewhere.

AdamDunn
05-30-2007, 01:48 PM
Why get Kevin at 15 when he could be there at 34? GOSH! I just don't think Kevin will be the best choice at 15...

Chip R
05-30-2007, 01:51 PM
Why get Kevin at 15 when he could be there at 34? GOSH! I just don't think Kevin will be the best choice at 15...


So they don't have to pay him as much money as a real #15 pick would command? :dunno:

BuckeyeRedleg
05-30-2007, 01:57 PM
And then at 34, they'll take a guy they could have had at 64 and so on.....

Chip R
05-30-2007, 01:58 PM
And then at 34, they'll take a guy they could have had at 64 and so on.....


You sure you don't work for the Reds? ;)

Highlifeman21
05-30-2007, 02:01 PM
My only hope is that if at 15 they take an arm, it's not a HS arm.

AdamDunn
05-30-2007, 02:06 PM
My only hope is that if at 15 they take an arm, it's not a HS arm.

What's wrong with a HS arm? Bailey's worked out pretty well so far...

Joseph
05-30-2007, 02:06 PM
So they don't have to pay him as much money as a real #15 pick would command? :dunno:

Are the still supposedly doing that? I thought that ended with Bowden a couple years back. Maybe I'm naive.

IslandRed
05-30-2007, 02:15 PM
Are the still supposedly doing that? I thought that ended with Bowden a couple years back. Maybe I'm naive.

They played it straight last year. They didn't jump at the chance to overpay Boras-client drop-downs, but they didn't bargain-fish for less than slot money, either.

Interesting that Buckley brought up guys dropping with signability issues. I wonder if they're ready to bite the bullet if that happens.

jmcclain19
05-30-2007, 04:07 PM
I've seen him rated at 15-35, meaning there are no guarantees he'll be there when the Reds pick again.

All the scouting reports compare Aherns to Chipper Jones. If that truly is the case taking him at 15 is fine by me.

Plus he'll make five Texas guys in a row. Whoever scouts Texas has some serious 1st round pull in the Reds front office.

OesterPoster
05-30-2007, 05:35 PM
Whoever scouts Texas has some serious 1st round pull in the Reds front office.

I think the late Brian Wilson was responsible for signing Bruce and Stubbs coming out of Texas.

AdamDunn
05-30-2007, 05:39 PM
I've seen him rated at 15-35, meaning there are no guarantees he'll be there when the Reds pick again.

All the scouting reports compare Aherns to Chipper Jones. If that truly is the case taking him at 15 is fine by me.

Plus he'll make five Texas guys in a row. Whoever scouts Texas has some serious 1st round pull in the Reds front office.

But that's the upper half of what he could be worth... I don't want someone that COULD be worth a 15 pick. I want a Mike M. or his teammate Matt D. or a Tim Alderson.

IslandRed
05-30-2007, 07:03 PM
But that's the upper half of what he could be worth... I don't want someone that COULD be worth a 15 pick. I want a Mike M. or his teammate Matt D. or a Tim Alderson.

No, it's not "the upper half of what he could be worth." It's only the upper half of where a handful of prognosticators think he'll go. And they're wrong a lot. I like rankings as much as the next guy, but if I'm running a ballclub, I'll trust my guys' judgment over Baseball America's. If I can't trust them to beat Baseball America, I'd better find some other guys.

Doc. Scott
05-30-2007, 07:12 PM
No one should ever draft "for big-league need" except in rare cases where a player might reach the big leagues within one year or something.

You take the best player available 99% of the time. That's what trading is for. The higher your overall talent level, the easier it will be to get what you need later.

edabbs44
05-30-2007, 09:50 PM
No one should ever draft "for big-league need" except in rare cases where a player might reach the big leagues within one year or something.

You take the best player available 99% of the time. That's what trading is for. The higher your overall talent level, the easier it will be to get what you need later.

Agreed, but I think the need of an organization on the whole and not a major league need is what should be looked at. For example, the Reds do not need an OFer, unless they are clearly the player to take. With Hamilton, Stubbs, Dunn and Bruce in the organization, I'd rather see them go for another position if that player is a viable pick.

oneupper
05-30-2007, 10:53 PM
No one should ever draft "for big-league need" except in rare cases where a player might reach the big leagues within one year or something.

You take the best player available 99% of the time. That's what trading is for. The higher your overall talent level, the easier it will be to get what you need later.

True. But we need to get some catchers SOMEWHERE.

Steve4192
05-30-2007, 10:53 PM
Agreed, but I think the need of an organization on the whole and not a major league need is what should be looked at. For example, the Reds do not need an OFer, unless they are clearly the player to take. With Hamilton, Stubbs, Dunn and Bruce in the organization, I'd rather see them go for another position if that player is a viable pick.

Problem is, Dunn might have priced himself out of town by the time a 2007 draft pick is ready to play, Hamilton will always be a relapse risk, and there is no guarantee that Bruce/Stubbs will pan out. It is highly unlikely that all four of those guys will be productive and in Cincinnati when 2010/2011 rolls around.

Mind you, I'm not advocating taking an OF, but the development path of MLB draftees is so damn long and filled with potholes that you can't take anything for granted.

LoganBuck
05-30-2007, 10:57 PM
Agreed, but I think the need of an organization on the whole and not a major league need is what should be looked at. For example, the Reds do not need an OFer, unless they are clearly the player to take. With Hamilton, Stubbs, Dunn and Bruce in the organization, I'd rather see them go for another position if that player is a viable pick.

Agreed. I would like to see an impact bat like LaPorta number 1. I like Detwiller too. Ahrens is supposedly on the rise, and if he truely is a Chipper Jones type, then why not? Max Sherzer would be a nice sandwich pick. I don't want any part of Andrew Brackman. He looks too much like those other trees that start falling apart at his age.

edabbs44
05-30-2007, 10:58 PM
Problem is, Dunn might have priced himself out of town by the time a 2007 draft pick is ready to play, Hamilton will always be a relapse risk, and there is no guarantee that Bruce/Stubbs will pan out. It is highly unlikely that all four of those guys will be productive and in Cincinnati when 2010/2011 rolls around.

Mind you, I'm not advocating taking an OF, but the development path of MLB draftees is so damn long and filled with potholes that you can't take anything for granted.

Oh, I'm with you 100%. But if this team is going to refuse to spend money to get veteran talent, then it has to come from the draft. And I'd rather see this team start to plan for the future by getting some guys who will fill out the 2010 roster behind Votto, Bruce, Harang, Bailey, Hamilton, Stubbs, etc etc than guys who might just create another Dunn/Griffey/Pena/AK fiasco.

Personally, I want pitching. But if they go best player available, that guy better be a STUD if he's an outfielder.

dougdirt
05-30-2007, 10:59 PM
Problem is, Dunn might have priced himself out of town by the time a 2007 draft pick is ready to play, Hamilton will always be a relapse risk, and there is no guarantee that Bruce/Stubbs will pan out. It is highly unlikely that all four of those guys will be productive and in Cincinnati when 2010/2011 rolls around.

Mind you, I'm not advocating taking an OF, but the development path of MLB draftees is so damn long and filled with potholes that you can't take anything for granted.

If I had to lay down money today as for who would be the most productive Reds outfielder in 2011 of thoose 4 players it would be Jay Bruce without thinking twice.

I dont think Dunn will be around after this season anyways, and the other two I just don't think will be the type of player Bruce is.

edabbs44
05-30-2007, 11:00 PM
The main thing I want is for Cincy to take top talent in all of their picks. They have a lot of early selections and it could get expensive. If they go cheap I will be pissed.

Steve4192
05-30-2007, 11:03 PM
If I had to lay down money today as for who would be the most productive Reds outfielder in 2011 of thoose 4 players it would be Jay Bruce without thinking twice.

I agree ... but there is always a degree of uncertainty when dealing with prospects.

* Some guys get injured (Ryan Anderson).
* Some guys are on their fourth team by the time they make the adjustement to the majors (Phil Nevin).
* Some guys never make the adjustment to the majors (Drew Henson, Sean Burroughs).
* Some guys get caught up in the party lifestyle and piss their talent away (very nearly Josh Hamilton).
* Some guys just go wonky in the head (Steve Blass, Mackey Sasser, Steve Sax, Rick Ankiel).

There is no such thing as a sure thing.

Betterread
05-30-2007, 11:24 PM
There is no such thing as a sure thing.

From drafts as recent as 2004 and 2005- Justin Verlander, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon were sure things. It is of note that one of the three was chosen at the #15 slot.

Steve4192
05-31-2007, 07:57 AM
From drafts as recent as 2004 and 2005- Justin Verlander, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon were sure things. It is of note that one of the three was chosen at the #15 slot.

Last time I checked Alex Gordon was hitting 185 with a sub-600 OPS. Are you sure he is a sure thing?

Matt Bush was picked before Verlander (#1 overall) in 2004 and he is looking like a complete bust at this point. Jeff Clement was picked immediately after Gordon (#3 overall) in 2005 and he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag since leaving single-A.

I repeat, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

edabbs44
05-31-2007, 09:09 AM
Last time I checked Alex Gordon was hitting 185 with a sub-600 OPS. Are you sure he is a sure thing?

Matt Bush was picked before Verlander (#1 overall) in 2004 and he is looking like a complete bust at this point. Jeff Clement was picked immediately after Gordon (#3 overall) in 2005 and he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag since leaving single-A.

I repeat, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Bush was in no way, shape or form a sure thing. His #1 selection has a lot to do with money.

Doc. Scott
05-31-2007, 12:40 PM
True. But we need to get some catchers SOMEWHERE.

Hey, there are a hundred scrappylicious Corky Millers out there just waiting to play for $100 and a pair of spikes.

Highlifeman21
05-31-2007, 01:07 PM
What's wrong with a HS arm? Bailey's worked out pretty well so far...

HS arms have a track record of breaking down in the minors, and not lasting in the majors if they see that level.

Bailey's in AAA. IMO, he hasn't shown us anything until he makes an impact at the MLB level.

Aronchis
05-31-2007, 01:38 PM
HS arms have a track record of breaking down in the minors, and not lasting in the majors if they see that level.

Bailey's in AAA. IMO, he hasn't shown us anything until he makes an impact at the MLB level.

So do college pitchers.

Steve4192
05-31-2007, 01:50 PM
So do college pitchers.

Not to the same degree.

Aronchis
05-31-2007, 01:57 PM
Not to the same degree.

At least they used to. 2000's have begun to challenge that as the better handling of highschool pitchers has helped give some success stories recently.

That doesn't mean that the majority of high school pitchers will outperform the college pitchers, but this draft is strong in the highschool ranks. I wouldn't touch guys like Main,Beaven or Porcello. Matt Harvey has a very similiar build and motion to Homer Bailey which may make him a better risk, because that is what all picks are.

The_jbh
05-31-2007, 02:25 PM
From drafts as recent as 2004 and 2005- Justin Verlander, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon were sure things. It is of note that one of the three was chosen at the #15 slot.

Verlander wasn't a sure thing coming out of the draft. Teams were concerned with a violent pitching motion and control. He CLEARLY had the best stuff in that draft but teams didn't know if he'd be able to put it together... the doubters were obviously wrong

Gordon is in a little over his head. I have faith that with a year of acclimation he will be a star in this league...

edabbs44
05-31-2007, 05:11 PM
Last time I checked Alex Gordon was hitting 185 with a sub-600 OPS. Are you sure he is a sure thing?

Matt Bush was picked before Verlander (#1 overall) in 2004 and he is looking like a complete bust at this point. Jeff Clement was picked immediately after Gordon (#3 overall) in 2005 and he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag since leaving single-A.

I repeat, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Funny timing. Not sure as to why this doesn't happen more often. From rotoworld today:


The Padres announced that they're converting Matt Bush, the first overall pick in the 2004 draft, into a pitcher.

It's something that started to be seriously considered last year, and when Bush hit just .204 in 98 at-bats in high-A ball to begin 2007, the Padres chose to have him make the switch. Bush, who had a 0.42 ERA in 66 innings as a pitcher in high school, is said to "ecstatic" about the move. He would seem to have a better chance of reaching the majors as a reliever than he did as an infielder.