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View Full Version : Current pitchers that will have a shot at 200 wins.



HumnHilghtFreel
06-01-2007, 01:17 AM
I was browsing the Indians' boxscore and saw that CC Sabathia had racked up his 8th win, so I looked at his career numbers and noticed it was the 89th of his career. Most likely he'll hit 100 sometime this year with that team. And he's only 26. It seems like he's been around forever.

But I got to wondering what other pitchers will have a good chance to make a run at 200 wins, since John Smoltz recently did it.

I would think Roy Oswalt should have a pretty good shot. He has 104 now and is only 29.

Roy Halladay got his 100th win tonight and is the same age as Oswalt.

After them though, it gets hazy in predicting who should have a good shot at reaching the 200 win milestone.

So, my question is, what up and coming pitchers do you guys think will be able to make a run at it(barring any major injuries)?

nate
06-01-2007, 07:52 AM
Andy Pettitte is at 189. He's a shoo-in.

Zito and Mulder are in a similar position to Oswalt. Mulder's not looking too good this year though.

Mark Buehrle is 28 with 99 wins.

Santana for sure...84 wins, 28 years old.

bucksfan2
06-01-2007, 08:37 AM
I would throw in Peavy(64 Wins 26 years old), Beckett (65 wins 27 years old), Willis (65 Wins 25 years old), Holladay (100 Wins 30 years old). If all these pitchers stay healthy they should all reach 200 wins.

texasdave
06-01-2007, 09:50 AM
ESPN has a 'favorite toy' calculator. The favorite toy was a creation by Bill James to see what the chances are of a particular player reaching a milestone. It is based on three things:1)how old a player is, 2)how far the player has to go to reach the goal and 3)at what rate the player is doing whatever it is he does. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/toy?age=24&careerTotal=45&y3=14&y2=14&y1=11&goalTotal=300 You just plug in a couple of numbers and it spits out the odds.

Here is a listing of the odds that current pitchers will reach their specific goal. Obviously, injuries etc. can change the percentages.



Pitcher AGE WINS XCW PCT200 PCT250 PCT300 PCT350 PCT375
Clemens 44 348 364 97% 10%
Maddux 41 333 355 78% 2%
Glavine 41 290 310 100% 100% 97%
BigUnit 43 280 305 76%
AndyPet 35 186 231 97% 14%
Colon 34 140 177 13%
Livan H 32 123 187 33%
Hudson 31 119 190 38% 4%
Millwo 32 123 183 28%
Garcia 32 116 190 38% 5%
Morris 32 111 169 16%
Suppan 32 106 173 22%
Zito 29 102 198 48% 15%
Oswalt 29 98 214 63% 26% 7%
Mulder 29 103 177 26%
Vazquez 30 100 169 19%
Hallday 30 95 175 26% 2%
Crpntr 32 100 182 32% 4%
Buehrle 28 97 198 48% 16%
CCSaba 26 81 189 41% 14%
Garland 27 82 215 62% 29% 11%
Santana 28 78 209 57% 26% 9%
Penny 29 72 150 11%
CZambra 26 64 193 45% 19% 5%
Lackey 28 60 157 19% 1%
Beckett 27 57 170 29% 9%
Willis 25 58 193 45% 20% 6%
Peavy 26 57 161 22% 4%
Marquis 28 56 156 19% 1%
Myers 26 54 156 20% 2%
Lee 28 49 159 23% 5%
Bonderm 24 45 175 34% 13% 1%

UC_Ken
06-01-2007, 10:02 AM
Glavine at 97% for 300 seems extremely low considering he's only 5 away. I was thinking 99. something.

HumnHilghtFreel
06-01-2007, 10:02 AM
ESPN has a 'favorite toy' calculator. The favorite toy was a creation by Bill James to see what the chances are of a particular player reaching a milestone. It is based on three things:1)how old a player is, 2)how far the player has to go to reach the goal and 3)at what rate the player is doing whatever it is he does. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/toy?age=24&careerTotal=45&y3=14&y2=14&y1=11&goalTotal=300 You just plug in a couple of numbers and it spits out the odds.


That's a cool little thing that I'm sure I'll waste lots of my time playing around with, thanks for posting it:)

texasdave
06-01-2007, 10:25 AM
Glavine at 97% for 300 seems extremely low considering he's only 5 away. I was thinking 99. something.

I believe the highest it gives out is 97%.