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OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 07:05 PM
Homer Bailey is pitching for Louisville at 7:00 PM in what could possibly be the last minor league start of his career judging from Narron's comments.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:08 PM
I'll be watching and I'll do my best to describe what I see.

Hopefully he has another good start tonight, and basically forces WK's hand. If Homer does start next Sunday, I think he'd be in line to pitch at the game I go to vs. Texas 2 weeks from today.

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 07:10 PM
I wouldn't put to much stock in what Narron says.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:15 PM
Lineup behind Homer:
Keppinger LF
Lopez SS
Hamilton CF
Herr DH
Votto 1B
Bellhorn 2B
Snyder 3B
Dickerson RF
Jorgesen C

GoReds
06-02-2007, 07:27 PM
What were Narron's comments?

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 07:29 PM
What were Narron's comments?

With Bobby Livingston being optioned to Louisville Saturday, he won't be eligible to come back in time to pitch next Saturday. That's when the Reds need a fifth starter.

If not Livingston, who? There's a very good chance it will be Homer Bailey. The other choices are Phil Dumatrait or Victor Santos.

"It's going to come down to Dumatrait, Santos or Homer," Jerry Narron said.

Bailey went into tonight's start 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Dumatrait is 5-4 with 3.79 ERA and struggled in his last start.

Santos will be in the bullpen leading up to Saturday, so an outing or two could eliminate him from consideration.

"(Bailey's) got a chance," Narron said. "He's pitched well. I'd like to see him come here and pitch well and contribute. I think it's going to be hard for him to pitch as well as the fans expect."

The Reds play Cleveland at home Saturday, by the way.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:29 PM
Homer Bailey is pitching for Louisville at 7:00 PM in what could possibly be the last minor league start of his career judging from Narron's comments.

That puts Homer's next start on Thursday (or Friday if they're off)....the Reds need a starter Saturday vs Cleveland....

Not sure if they would mess with his schedule - it gives them anothe excuse not to bring him up... :cool:

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:33 PM
With Bobby Livingston being optioned to Louisville Saturday, he won't be eligible to come back in time to pitch next Saturday. That's when the Reds need a fifth starter.

If not Livingston, who? There's a very good chance it will be Homer Bailey. The other choices are Phil Dumatrait or Victor Santos.

"It's going to come down to Dumatrait, Santos or Homer," Jerry Narron said.

Bailey went into tonight's start 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Dumatrait is 5-4 with 3.79 ERA and struggled in his last start.

Santos will be in the bullpen leading up to Saturday, so an outing or two could eliminate him from consideration.

"(Bailey's) got a chance," Narron said. "He's pitched well. I'd like to see him come here and pitch well and contribute. I think it's going to be hard for him to pitch as well as the fans expect."

The Reds play Cleveland at home Saturday, by the way.

That would be the first time I've heard Homer's name as a candidate from either Jerry or Wayne. Usually they shoot than down instantly (Wayne more than Jerry...Jerry wanted him up here last year)

GoReds
06-02-2007, 07:34 PM
Thanks, OBM. I think I just threw up a little.

I'd really rather see Homer stay at Louisville until the ASG, at least. Sounds like Narron is looking for a savior.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:35 PM
What the heck? The Bats game is underway.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:37 PM
Pedro Lopez walks, and Josh gets a big cheer as he steps in.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:37 PM
Oh my God!

Hamilton just complete KILLED that ball. WAY GONE.

2 run homer.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 07:38 PM
Hamilton is unbelievable.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:40 PM
That had to have gone 500+ feet. I'm in awe.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:41 PM
Votto Ks on a pitch that nearly hits him.

Lopez: BB
Hamilton: 1-1, HR, R, 2 RBI
Votto: 0-1 K

He comes Homer.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:42 PM
http://www.consultwebs.com/ncphotos/images/aerials/Durham-98-0630836_large_dro.jpg


Hamilton's ball hit off that warehouse in RF. Amazing power.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:44 PM
Zobrist bloops a single on a 0-2 pitch to left.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:45 PM
Homer gives up an absolute bomb to LF, over the bull.

It's 2-2.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 07:46 PM
So much for Homer pitching Saturday. He gives up a 0-2 hit followed by a homer to two guys who aren't exactly world-beaters.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:46 PM
Homer gets his first out on a grounder to Lopez at SS.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:46 PM
I want video!!!

:cool:

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:48 PM
Gomes smacks a single to CF.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:49 PM
So much for Homer pitching Saturday. He gives up a 0-2 hit followed by a homer to two guys who aren't exactly world-beaters.

Oops...

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 07:49 PM
I saw Homer jump ahead 0-2 on Zobrist, and I started thinking, "here we go again, he's kicked it into another gear." I was wrong. And now he jumps ahead 0-2 to Gomes and then goes 3-2 before allowing a single.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:49 PM
Homer isn't fooling a soul.

A double.

2nd and 3rd 1 out.

Homer has no idea where his offspeed stuff is going.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:51 PM
Homer isn't fooling a soul.

A double.

2nd and 3rd 1 out.

Homer has no idea where his offspeed stuff is going.


Somewhere, Wayne is breathing a sigh of relief knowing his "he's not ready" argument may have a little backbone left....

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:51 PM
Durham announcer says Homer is tipping his pitches.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:51 PM
4 pitch walk.

Bases loaded 1 out.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:52 PM
Guzman swings at a ball in the dirt, but the ball gets passed Jorgesen.

3-2 Bulls

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:53 PM
Durham announcer says Homer is tipping his pitches.

Is Danny Graves the pitching coach?

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:55 PM
Bailey blows a 96 MPH heater by Guzman.

He Gone. Homer's first K.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 07:55 PM
One bad night won't change my mind about him...

EVERYBODY has a bad night...and several guys up here have them often.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:57 PM
Nice changeup on Mohr to even the count at 1-1.

Changeup at 83.

Homer comes back with the heater and Ks him with a 95 MPH heater.

reds44
06-02-2007, 07:58 PM
Homer:
1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 1 HR

35 pitch inning/

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 08:00 PM
I'd love to see Homer bounce back and salvage this start with about five shutout innings

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:07 PM
Bellhorn walks.
Snyder Ks
Dickerson Ks
Jorgesen bounces out.

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:11 PM
Casanova bounces out on a 3-2 pitch.

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:12 PM
Homer walks Zobrist on 5 pitches.

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:15 PM
Homer Ks Velandia on a 93 MPH heater in the dirt.

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:16 PM
Ruggiano singles, Zobrist to 3rd.

2 outs

reds44
06-02-2007, 08:17 PM
1st and 3rd on a single.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 08:19 PM
Bailey K's Jonny Gomes for his 4th K in two innings.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 08:21 PM
triple post.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 08:21 PM
Homer K's Jonny Gomes for his 4th strikeout in 2 innings.

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 08:21 PM
Homer's battling hard, if you get 3 more good inning, they will have to be happy.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 08:32 PM
Votto walks for the 37th time this year.

Patrick Bateman
06-02-2007, 08:42 PM
One bad night won't change my mind about him...

EVERYBODY has a bad night...and several guys up here have them often.

Nobody is suggesting that he should be writed off fom that 1 inning. It's just further evidence that he isn't qiute ready to pitch in the major.s

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 08:44 PM
Nice 3rd for bailey

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 08:46 PM
Hopefully he's rebounding

BearcatShane
06-02-2007, 08:48 PM
Nobody is suggesting that he should be writed off fom that 1 inning. It's just further evidence that he isn't qiute ready to pitch in the major.s

I'm not ready to say after one bad inning in AAA that he is not ready for the majors. I still think he's ready.

jesusfan
06-02-2007, 08:58 PM
Another K for Bailey..

jesusfan
06-02-2007, 09:00 PM
1-2-3 inning for Bailey... Through 4, 5 Hits, 3 Runs, and 6 K's..

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:01 PM
Homer has retired 7 in a row.

4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

It looked like he was really battling with his mechanics in the first couple innings, but he has settled down.

Good to se ehim fight through.

Patrick Bateman
06-02-2007, 09:01 PM
I'm not ready to say after one bad inning in AAA that he is not ready for the majors. I still think he's ready.

His ERA may suggest that, but his lack of K's and control issues is worriesome. It indicates that right now, minor leaguers are doing just fine against him. If those patterns continue, major leaguers would feast on him.

Of course, he has pitched much better lately, but 2 starts is not enough.

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 09:01 PM
2 very good innings in a row. At 78 pitches. he may be able to pitch 6.

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:04 PM
I have a feeling, tonight was one of those nights Bailey came out feeling he had great stuff, but when he started to throw, the command just wasn't there.

It is all about adjustment and progression. We must be patient and allow him to grow.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:04 PM
Stubbs and Valaika are both 2-for-2 with two singles. Dayton trails 3-2 in the 4th.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:04 PM
Guys don't forget they moved the starting time up a half hour just a few hours before gametime. That could be the reason he had a bad first inning. Little things like that screw pitches up.

Josh singles.

jesusfan
06-02-2007, 09:04 PM
Hamilton singles...

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:05 PM
Hamilton singles for his second hit. 2-for-3 with a 2-run HR and single.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:06 PM
Jay Bruce is 1-for-3 with his 16th double. Szymanski has belted his fifth HR.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:06 PM
Hamilton singles for his second hit. 2-for-3 with a 2-run HR and single.

Can we please bring him up to Colorado...Hamilton at Coors field, even if just for a day, could mean big things.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:06 PM
Hamilton steals 2nd.

And the easiest trivia question ever c/o the Bulls broadcast.

What #1 overall pick does Hamilton play with on the Reds?

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:07 PM
Can we please bring him up to Colorado...Hamilton at Coors field, even if just for a day, could mean big things.
Bulls broadcast said it sounded like he would be in Colorado tomorrow.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:08 PM
And now Votto rips a line drive single to left. He's 1-for-2 with a single and walk.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:10 PM
And now Votto rips a line drive single to left. He's 1-for-2 with a single and walk.

I'd be all for him coming up, too....but not to sit on the bench.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:10 PM
Bulls broadcast said it sounded like he would be in Colorado tomorrow.

Good. He should be.

We'll see. :)

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:11 PM
Hamilton steals 2nd.

And the easiest trivia question ever c/o the Bulls broadcast.

What #1 overall pick does Hamilton play with on the Reds?

Castro?








:p:

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:12 PM
Castro?








:p:
Winner!!!

:evil:

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:19 PM
Homer taken the mound in the 6th yet?

And, am I reading this right, that after his first he's settled down to shut them out the rest of the way? Nothing there makes me think he should not get a call up. The standard he is held to by some of the folks on this board is damn near unreachable...

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:21 PM
Homer taken the mound in the 6th yet?

And, am I reading this right, that after his first he's settled down to shut them out the rest of the way? Nothing there makes me think he should not get a call up. The standard he is held to by some of the folks on this board is damn near unreachable...

No, he struggled in the 5th. It isn't standard, he just isn't ready yet. Patience.

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:21 PM
Guess Arroyo isn't ready yet then either...

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:22 PM
Homer taken the mound in the 6th yet?

And, am I reading this right, that after his first he's settled down to shut them out the rest of the way? Nothing there makes me think he should not get a call up. The standard he is held to by some of the folks on this board is damn near unreachable...

He just gave up a run n the 5th.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:22 PM
I have tickets to Saturday's game. Looks like I'll be watching Dumatrait instead of Homer Bailey.

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:22 PM
Time to bust him back to Sarasota then...

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:23 PM
Guess Arroyo isn't ready yet then either...

Again, why bother wasting Bailey's service time when we would have to just send him back down?

He hasn't taken much of a step foward this year.

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:23 PM
Because Dumatrait's 4.00 era is so impressive?

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:24 PM
Aronchis, if you don't think a debut at AAA at 21 like he has had isn't a step forward, we are firmly at an agree to disagree point. Laughable. As always.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:24 PM
Because Dumatrait's 4.00 era is so impressive?

No because the three options are Dumatrait, Santos, and Bailey. I'm just relaying the information, I never said I did or didn't want Bailey to start next Saturday.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:25 PM
I have tickets to Saturday's game. Looks like I'll be watching Dumatrait instead of Homer Bailey.
Calling up Dumatrait would be a HUGE mistake. He has been getting rocked in AAA lately.

WK needs to be on the phone looking for a starter.

On his 96th pitch of the night, Homer ends the inning.

5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 09:25 PM
considering the 3 run first, i would say bailey did a pretty good job. If he isnt ready now he is very close.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:25 PM
He hasn't taken much of a step foward this year.


Wow...what do you expect of him? I'd like to know what a step forward would be...0 ERA, no hitters across the board?

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:26 PM
Btw, Josh didn't help Homer out much by throwing a dud to home plate. He looked like Jacque with that throw.

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:27 PM
Wow...what do you expect of him? I'd like to know what a step forward would be...0 ERA, no hitters across the board?

Look at Yo Gallardo's stats, then look at Homer Bailey's. You will see what being 'ready' is all about at this young of age. Bailey simply isn't ready.

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:28 PM
Or...and here's a crazed thought, more than one guy can be "ready" at any one time. Perhaps Gallardo AND Bailey are both ready.

Patrick Bateman
06-02-2007, 09:28 PM
Aronchis, if you don't think a debut at AAA at 21 like he has had isn't a step forward, we are firmly at an agree to disagree point. Laughable. As always.

His ERA is very misleading. I tend to agree with Aronchis this time (as much as I hate to say it).

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:29 PM
Wow...what do you expect of him? I'd like to know what a step forward would be...0 ERA, no hitters across the board?
His K rate and K/BB ratio could be better.

membengal
06-02-2007, 09:29 PM
Right. B/c that ERA is covering up an awful WHIP.

Oh, wait. It's not. Hmmmm. Damn that WHIP all to hell...

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 09:29 PM
Look at Yo Gallardo's stats, then look at Homer Bailey's. You will see what being 'ready' is all about at this young of age. Bailey simply isn't ready.

Up until today, SO's were the only stat gallardo was better in. And now they are probably even in era. K's don't mean everything and bailey has been picking up the pace in those as power pitchers are sometimes slow starters.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:30 PM
His K rate and K/BB ratio could be better.

I won't argue that...

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:33 PM
Nobody is saying Homer is sucking here. There is a difference between not good, and not ready.

As good as his ERA and WHIP look, his K/BB ratio and K rate are less then impressive.

He could use more time in AAA.

Patrick Bateman
06-02-2007, 09:34 PM
Right. B/c that ERA is covering up an awful WHIP.

Oh, wait. It's not. Hmmmm. Damn that WHIP all to hell...

Both ERA and WHIP are luck dependent. Usually WHIP and ERA are cut from the same cloth. Other peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) are more indicative of his true success.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:37 PM
Who is pitching for Louisville tomorrow? It's not Cueto is it? I'm pretty sure he's starting for Sarasota tomorrow.

dougdirt
06-02-2007, 09:43 PM
Bailey over 105 pitches..... Not sure how I feel about that one.

dougdirt
06-02-2007, 09:43 PM
If Bailey isn't done now, I am going to be very upset. 109 pitches, 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 8K. He better be done for the night.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:43 PM
Bailey over 105 pitches..... Not sure how I feel about that one.

Trying to stretch him out for his major league debut next week :D

dougdirt
06-02-2007, 09:44 PM
Trying to stretch him out for his major league debut next week :D

Thats what I am worried about..... I trust Narron sticking Homer to a reasonable pitch count about as much as I trust him to manage a winner....

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:45 PM
His pitch count has been 100 all year. I'm shocked they let him go 109.

Stretching him out for the majors? That's the only thing I can think.

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 09:47 PM
It was a great last inning. I think it was a pretty good day considering the first inning. I wont be upset if he gets the call. He could probably use 5 or so more starts but he can get those at the big league level. He will be fine. It isnt rushing if someone is this close to being ready.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:47 PM
Thats what I am worried about..... I trust Narron sticking Homer to a reasonable pitch count about as much as I trust him to manage a winner....

I won't argue that either, he better be smart with him, and Krivsky better give him a strict pitch count to stick with, at least to start....if he messes him up by overdoing it with him, I will be angry.


You wouldn't like me when I'm angry.

ochoa30
06-02-2007, 09:48 PM
His pitch count has been 100 all year. I'm shocked they let him go 109.

Stretching him out for the majors? That's the only thing I can think.

I dont mind it so much, he hit 97 twice in the inning so i think he felt pretty good.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:48 PM
Jay Bruce is 2-for-4 with his 16th double and a single tonight. Hopefully he's coming out of that one week slump. Dorn is 2-for-4 with two doubles, giving him 15 doubles this year.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:50 PM
If Bailey isn't done now, I am going to be very upset. 109 pitches, 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 8K. He better be done for the night.
I'm going to excuse the 1st inning because they moved the game up a half hour just an hour or so before gametime. That can throw a pitcher off.

After the 1st:
5 IP, 3 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:50 PM
Bailey is beginning to feel it, but his command wasn't there tonight. First time all year he hit 97. Patience Wayne, patience.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:50 PM
Looks like Votto flied out to the wall in left field. It's truly amazing how much he hits the ball to left field. He's just missed hitting three or fours homers this week only to see them caught at the wall.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:51 PM
Looks like Votto flied out to the wall in left field. It's truly amazing how much he hits the ball to left field. He's just missed hitting three or fours homers this week only to see them caught at the wall.
He didn't get all of it. The Durham Green Monster made it look deeper then it was.

Aronchis
06-02-2007, 09:51 PM
Looks like Votto flied out to the wall in left field. It's truly amazing how much he hits the ball to left field. He's just missed hitting three or fours homers this week only to see them caught at the wall.

Nothing a little time in the Gym won't fix. Those warning track shots will be Johnson's.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 09:52 PM
Chris Valaika is 3-for-3 with three singles.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:52 PM
Bailey is beginning to feel it, but his command wasn't there tonight. First time all year he hit 97. Patience Wayne, patience.
He didn't have his command in the first, he was solid besides that.

Does he throw 2 different fastballs? He hit 97 and 91 tonight with the heater.

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:53 PM
Hal McCoy said all signs point to Homer Saturday.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:55 PM
He didn't have his command in the first, he was solid besides that.

Does he throw 2 different fastballs? He hit 97 and 91 tonight with the heater.

2 seamer, 4 seamer? Maybe?

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:56 PM
Guardado pitched the 8th in Dayton tonight

11 pitches (8 for strikes)
2 Ks
1 fly out

Topped out at 84 mph

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:57 PM
Guardado pitched the 8th in Dayton tonight

11 pitches (8 for strikes)
2 Ks
1 fly out

Topped out at 84 mph
I don't want him on the Reds pitching at 84.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 09:58 PM
I don't want him on the Reds pitching at 84.

That's not much zip...ESPECIALLY for a closer

reds44
06-02-2007, 09:59 PM
That's not much zip...ESPECIALLY for a closer
Dave Williamsish
Chris Hammondish

OesterPoster
06-02-2007, 10:14 PM
I wouldn't trust the Dayton scoreboard radar gun. I'll reserve judgement until I see a number from the Reds or hear it from Eddie's mouth.

tbball10
06-02-2007, 10:16 PM
Bailey is beginning to feel it, but his command wasn't there tonight. First time all year he hit 97. Patience Wayne, patience.

how do u know that is the first time he has hit 97?

dougdirt
06-02-2007, 10:26 PM
2 seamer, 4 seamer? Maybe?

Right you are Matt.

reds44
06-02-2007, 10:27 PM
Right you are Matt.
I didn't know he had 2 fastballs. I always thought he was a 3 pitch pitcher.

Thanks for that info.

So he has a
2 seam fastball
4 seam fastball
curveball
changeup

Correct?

Matt700wlw
06-02-2007, 10:33 PM
I didn't know he had 2 fastballs. I always thought he was a 3 pitch pitcher.

Thanks for that info.

So he has a
2 seam fastball
4 seam fastball
curveball
changeup

Correct?

Not a bad arsenal...

dougdirt
06-02-2007, 10:45 PM
I didn't know he had 2 fastballs. I always thought he was a 3 pitch pitcher.

Thanks for that info.

So he has a
2 seam fastball
4 seam fastball
curveball
changeup

Correct?

Most pitchers throw both a 2 and 4 seam fastball.

CTA513
06-02-2007, 11:11 PM
Chattanooga down 6-5 in the 8th

Pelland: 2 Innings, 2 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 BB, 2 K

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 11:37 PM
Jay Bruce finished 3-for-5 with a double and two singles. Good to see him hitting well again after a bad week.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2007, 11:44 PM
Carlos Guevara threw a scoreless ninth for the save.

Guevara: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

membengal
06-03-2007, 09:15 AM
Minor irony? If indeed Homer is called up for next Saturday, after all of the arguments I have made for his call-up, I won't be able to see it or hear it, as I will be on a vacation with the family next weekend with no access to the game...

Betterread
06-03-2007, 09:46 AM
Nothing a little time in the Gym won't fix. Those warning track shots will be Johnson's.

Votto's current power (high total of 22 HRs in one year) is Major league average. There are differing opinions on his projected power (he is still only 23). I hope his power continues to develop. There is a qualitative difference between a major league first baseman that hits 15 -25 HRs a year (Casey) and one that hits 25-35 HRs a year (Konerko)

HBP
06-03-2007, 12:21 PM
Votto's current power (high total of 22 HRs in one year) is Major league average. There are differing opinions on his projected power (he is still only 23). I hope his power continues to develop. There is a qualitative difference between a major league first baseman that hits 15 -25 HRs a year (Casey) and one that hits 25-35 HRs a year (Konerko)

Playing in GABP might improve those numbers

dougdirt
06-03-2007, 12:32 PM
Minor irony? If indeed Homer is called up for next Saturday, after all of the arguments I have made for his call-up, I won't be able to see it or hear it, as I will be on a vacation with the family next weekend with no access to the game...

Well if it does happen you can bet a lot of money that I will have that game on DVD and I am sure I could get you a copy.

dougdirt
06-03-2007, 12:33 PM
Votto's current power (high total of 22 HRs in one year) is Major league average. There are differing opinions on his projected power (he is still only 23). I hope his power continues to develop. There is a qualitative difference between a major league first baseman that hits 15 -25 HRs a year (Casey) and one that hits 25-35 HRs a year (Konerko)

Yeah, but he will play about 20 more games in the Majors and the guy is also a doubles machine. 25 HR and 40 doubles is pretty impressive and that is what Votto will do.

membengal
06-03-2007, 12:42 PM
Just out of curiosity, is it really the least bit easy to project power potential at the major league level? I don't think it is, myself. It's not like current sluggers were knocking out 40 HR seasons in the minors prior to call-ups. Isn't a 20+ HR type season with .900+OPS and lots of doubles in the minors the kind of thing you want to see from someone if you harbor hopes they can someday hit 30+ homers a season in the bigs?

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2007, 01:01 PM
Just out of curiosity, is it really the least bit easy to project power potential at the major league level? I don't think it is, myself. It's not like current sluggers were knocking out 40 HR seasons in the minors prior to call-ups. Isn't a 20+ HR type season with .900+OPS and lots of doubles in the minors the kind of thing you want to see from someone if you harbor hopes they can someday hit 30+ homers a season in the bigs?

Yes. You beat me to it.

Just for example:

Highest minor league HR total on left/ highest MLB HR total on right

Chipper Jones: 15/45
Barry Larkin: 10/33
Jim Thome: 25/52
Miguel Cabrera: 10/33
Vladimir Guerrero: 24/44
Jason Bay: 20/35
David Wright: 15/27
Travis Hafner: 28/42
Jason Giambi: 12/43
Vernon Wells: 12/33

Power is usualy the last tool to develop. Joey Votto is showing the necessary signs that indicate he is going to hit for pretty good power down the road. 46 doubles + 22 homers last year at age 22 in AA is very good. I would not be surprised to see Votto hit 30 homers and 40 doubles in the major leagues.

membengal
06-03-2007, 01:08 PM
Thanks OBM, great post. That's EXACTLY what I thought. I just don't see how anyone can look at what Votto's doing and assume he cannot someday mash homeruns at high rate in the majors. I would say, as with all players, it's an open question until he actually does it. But I think he profiles like the kind of player who COULD...

Matt700wlw
06-03-2007, 01:23 PM
Minor irony? If indeed Homer is called up for next Saturday, after all of the arguments I have made for his call-up, I won't be able to see it or hear it, as I will be on a vacation with the family next weekend with no access to the game...

Well, you better cancel your plans then



:)

Betterread
06-03-2007, 04:37 PM
Power is usualy the last tool to develop. Joey Votto is showing the necessary signs that indicate he is going to hit for pretty good power down the road. 46 doubles + 22 homers last year at age 22 in AA is very good. I would not be surprised to see Votto hit 30 homers and 40 doubles in the major leagues.

I hope your optimism is well-placed. I want Votto to be able to contribute extra base hits as frequently in the majors as he did last year. If he did, it would be remarkable (for both him and the Reds). In the last 5 years, only Sean Casey has hit 40 or more doubles for the season (2004)for the Reds. I think Votto has adapted to AAA pitching in 2007 very well and very quickly. Clearly, if he stays healthy, and continues to work on his defense (which I'm not sure is major league ready) he is expected to take over the Reds' first base position soon. I am eager to see him do well, but I am trying to assess what to expect from him. Maybe I should just be pleased at his developmental progress to this point, and not start mapping his major league career before it has even begun. He has made great adjustments to shorten his swing in the last few years - cutting down his strikeouts and increasing his ability to make contact. This shows his ability to make adjustments to his swing as necessary, which speaks well of both his athleticism and his character.