This team is pathetic with runners in scoring postion

[captainmorgan07]

i have never seen a team be this inept with men in scoring position. Sunday we left more men on base than custer lost at his last stand. Most of the time it's with 2 outs or less two it's either a lack of contact or swinging at bad pitches. If they are gonna climb out of this hole they better start hitting with runners in scoring position.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

I made note of this during the last Rockies game.

They really do squander a lot of opportunities with bad situational hitting. Edwin and Griff seem like they do better with RISP by far.

[redsupport]

castro can do it. He is the man, what an incredible scoop to reacquire Castro, he is a solid veteran who knows how to lay the game. The Dodgers have suffered miserably since Castro's unfortunate departure. Castro is on a carrer year pace, if hekeeps it up, he may surpass the performance of Rafael Santo Domingo

[TheWalls]

Why is Batto del Pucko (.161, 2K, 5 LOB) still on this team?

[redsupport]

Castro has numerous strong points, he is able to exchange oxygen for carbon dioxide regularly, he is a member of the correct phylum to play baseball, and the supreme compliment of course , is his scrappiness factor

[I(heart)Freel]

Wow... I wonder who the leading candidate for RedsZone whipping boy is?

And yet, at the risk of saying something unpopular that is nonetheless true, we don't pay Castro to hit or even play regularly. Every team has a glove guy on the bench who can cover SS. Castro's ours.

I'm much more concerned with the other guys in the lineup, who ARE paid to do that.

[captainmorgan07]

castro is the leader in the clubhouse right now for that award

[boognish]

BA does not correlate as stongly to scoring runs as SLG, but you have to do better than .229 (mid-game update)

[reds44]

Wow... I wonder who the leading candidate for RedsZone whipping boy is?

And yet, at the risk of saying something unpopular that is nonetheless true, we don't pay Castro to hit or even play regularly. Every team has a glove guy on the bench who can cover SS. Castro's ours.

I'm much more concerned with the other guys in the lineup, who ARE paid to do that.
The problem is, Castro is not that good with the glove.

[redsupport]

castro is great, he should be enshrined in the OPS Hallof Fame. His puissance should be discussed for eons, along with the likes of Jay Ward and Mike Grace and even, although it probably a stretch, Len Boehmer

[mound_patrol]

I blame Adam Dunn. It all falls squarely on his shoulders.

[TheWalls]

After the 7th, any questions?

[TheWalls]

After the 7th, any questions?

Or the 8th?!!!

[Degenerate39]

I blame Adam Dunn. It all falls squarely on his shoulders.

Please tell me you aren't serious.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

15 LOB, 9 in scoring position with 2 out.

Got em on, got em over, didn't get em in.

[redsupport]

thats OK they'll get the first pick and select a Brandon Larsen equivalent over Lance Berkman

[reds44]

15 LOB, 9 in scoring position with 2 out.

Got em on, got em over, didn't get em in.
When you have players hitting like

Norris Hopper
David Ross
Chad Moeller
Juan Castro
Javier Valentin
Aaron Harang

you are going to leave ALOT of guys on base.

Hopper left 1 OB.
Ross 2
Moller 1
Castro 5
Valentin 3
Harang 5

Not a single one of them is a good hitter. They aren't even decent hitters.

[mound_patrol]

When you have players hitting like

Norris Hopper
David Ross
Chad Moeller
Juan Castro
Javier Valentin
Aaron Harang

you are going to leave ALOT of guys on base.

Hopper left 1 OB.
Ross 2
Moller 1
Castro 5
Valentin 3
Harang 5

Not a single one of them is a good hitter. They aren't even decent hitters.

But yet Dunn is are problems. I don't get Marty and his followers. It's amazing how much K's have blinded people oh his talents.

[eastkyred]

When you have players hitting like

Norris Hopper
David Ross
Chad Moeller
Juan Castro
Javier Valentin
Aaron Harang

you are going to leave ALOT of guys on base.

Hopper left 1 OB.
Ross 2
Moller 1
Castro 5
Valentin 3
Harang 5

Not a single one of them is a good hitter. They aren't even decent hitters.

Yea blame Hopper and Moller with 1 LOB each and Ross with 2, but don't even mention Dunn with 4. There were two people on the team that left more on base than Dunn last night, the backup short stop and the pitcher. Dunn would have matched their 5 if he doesn't get a little luck with the shattered bat bloop that falls in for his lone rbi.

[mound_patrol]

Yea blame Hopper and Moller with 1 LOB each and Ross with 2, but don't even mention Dunn with 4. There were two people on the team that left more on base than Dunn last night, the backup short stop and the pitcher. Dunn would have matched their 5 if he doesn't get a little luck with the shattered bat bloop that falls in for his lone rbi.

Actually Dunn left 3, but he got robbed on a miss call in the first inning as the ball did hit the fence, and Dunn also drove in one of the 3 Reds runs. But i'm guessing Dunn's defense also cost the Reds atleast 2 of those 4 runs so you're probably right. Dunn sucks.

[bounty37h]

But yet Dunn is are problems. I don't get Marty and his followers. It's amazing how much K's have blinded people oh his talents.

I think Dunn left 4 on, sooo......amazed at how HR's have blinded people on baseball palyers :) j/k with ya

[mound_patrol]

I think Dunn left 4 on, sooo......amazed at how HR's have blinded people on baseball palyers :) j/k with ya

I went back through the play by play and could only find 4. He got hit by a pitch with a man on if thats where you are thinking the 4th came from.

And I haven't talked about his homerun power. I continue to mention that his abilities to avoid outs are superior to most professional hitters.

[bounty37h]

Hehe, I was just playing with you, and sort of toying off how another bad season get a fanbase to playing against each other, everyone becomes the next manager or GM, and the "who's fault is it", "what player is worse" discussions come about. Winning sure does a lot to cure all these problems, here's hoping we find that medicine!!!

[Degenerate39]

But yet Dunn is are problems.

By God you're right the other 24 guys on the roster can't drive in runs because of Dunn.

Dunn is the reason our bullpen sucks.

Dunn is the reason for Narron's funky lineups.

Dunn is the reason Arroyo is having a bad year.

Dunn is the reason Narron keeps throwing Coffey and Stanton out to pitch instead of guys like McBeth.

Dunn is the reason Eric Milton sucks.

Man you are right Dunn is all our problems.

[eastkyred]

By God you're right the other 24 guys on the roster can't drive in runs because of Dunn.

Dunn is the reason our bullpen sucks.

Dunn is the reason for Narron's funky lineups.

Dunn is the reason Arroyo is having a bad year.

Dunn is the reason Narron keeps throwing Coffey and Stanton out to pitch instead of guys like McBeth.

Dunn is the reason Eric Milton sucks.

Man you are right Dunn is all our problems.

I think there is a small difference between saying that Dunn is not worth $12-$14 mil to the Reds and saying that all of these other problems are Dunn's fault. Nobody is trying to blame Dunn for the Reds being terrible. You are right, all of the things mentioned are big contributors to our lack of success. What I, and I think others, are saying is that not signing Dunn long term could help fix some of these other problems. Not all of them, but some. I think trading Dunn and spending the saved money wisely could add 3-4 very productive players to the roster next year. Or we could keep him and just send the same tired bunch out and hope for better "luck" next year.

[mound_patrol]

By God you're right the other 24 guys on the roster can't drive in runs because of Dunn.

Dunn is the reason our bullpen sucks.

Dunn is the reason for Narron's funky lineups.

Dunn is the reason Arroyo is having a bad year.

Dunn is the reason Narron keeps throwing Coffey and Stanton out to pitch instead of guys like McBeth.

Dunn is the reason Eric Milton sucks.

Man you are right Dunn is all our problems.

Atleast someone gets it.;)
Dunn is also the reason that Gonzalez has like 8 errors.
Dunn is also the reason that Edwin got sent down

[eastkyred]

Wait
I think its the bullpen, Narron's lineup, Eric Milton, Gonzo's 8 errors, and Edwin getting sent down that are the reason Dunn is hitting .200 with RISP and has the second worst fielding range of any national league of with at least 350 innings played.

[Degenerate39]

Dunn is also the reason that Edwin got sent down

That was a good thing

[Degenerate39]

I think there is a small difference between saying that Dunn is not worth $12-$14 mil to the Reds and saying that all of these other problems are Dunn's fault. Nobody is trying to blame Dunn for the Reds being terrible. You are right, all of the things mentioned are big contributors to our lack of success. What I, and I think others, are saying is that not signing Dunn long term could help fix some of these other problems. Not all of them, but some. I think trading Dunn and spending the saved money wisely could add 3-4 very productive players to the roster next year. Or we could keep him and just send the same tired bunch out and hope for better "luck" next year.

I think the exact opposite we should sign him long term because he's been the only consistant power hitter the have had in a long time.

[eastkyred]

I think the exact opposite we should sign him long term because he's been the only consistant power hitter the have had in a long time.

Maybe next year we can sign Craig Wilson instead of Conine and try a different catcher for about 1.5 mil. Maybe that will put us in the playoffs.

[mound_patrol]

Wait
I think its the bullpen, Narron's lineup, Eric Milton, Gonzo's 8 errors, and Edwin getting sent down that are the reason Dunn is hitting .200 with RISP and has the second worst fielding range of any national league of with at least 350 innings played.

he might be hitting .200 but his career OPS is .886 with RISP.

[bounty37h]

Atleast someone gets it.;)
Dunn is also the reason that Gonzalez has like 8 errors.
Dunn is also the reason that Edwin got sent down

^well, if he is responsible for EdE being sent down, then that is one good thing in his corner. I hope by now, those that were against that move have now realized it was the right move, without a doubt, as it seemed to have had the effect they were looking for.

[mound_patrol]

^well, if he is responsible for EdE being sent down, then that is one good thing in his corner. I hope by now, those that were against that move have now realized it was the right move, without a doubt, as it seemed to have had the effect they were looking for.

Yeah he definitly has done well since returning. And I was one that was definitly against sending him down, but its hard to argue with the results that came from him being down there.

[eastkyred]

he might be hitting .200 but his career OPS is .886 with RISP.

I thought we were talking about this year's problems. By the way, compare that career OPS with RISP to Bay, Pujols, Berkman, Griffey, D. Lee (the last few years), or Fielder(this year).

[Degenerate39]

Maybe next year we can sign Craig Wilson instead of Conine and try a different catcher for about 1.5 mil. Maybe that will put us in the playoffs.

Why? We'll have Joey Votto at first base next year. And I'm not sure why you quoted me unless it was a mistake.

[Screwball]

I thought we were talking about this year's problems. By the way, compare that career OPS with RISP to Bay, Pujols, Berkman, Griffey, D. Lee (the last few years), or Fielder(this year).

Agreed. How the Reds fail to bring in Bay, Pujols, Berkman, D. Lee, or Prince Fielder year after year leaves me baffled. :rolleyes:

[redsupport]

they did not have to "bring in" Berkman, just someone in the inane front office had to figure out that Brandon Larsen was not better than Berkman

[eastkyred]

Agreed. How the Reds fail to bring in Bay, Pujols, Berkman, D. Lee, or Prince Fielder year after year leaves me baffled. :rolleyes:

Those teams didn't bring in those players, except D. Lee. The point is, if you don't have one of those guys, don't pay anybody that kind of money. Wait until you get a guy like that and then pay them the money. 2 or 3 years from now, we may see that Josh Hamilton and/or Jay Bruce is one of these guys. If they are, then pay them the big contract. You act like it is some once in a lifetime event to have a player like those. Its funny how every other team in our division has one except us and we are the worst division in baseball.

[eastkyred]

Why? We'll have Joey Votto at first base next year. And I'm not sure why you quoted me unless it was a mistake.

I was kidding about Craig Wilson. My point and the reason I quoted you was, if we resign Dunn, we aren't making the major move that needs to be made to change this team. We're just back to swapping out spare parts. We are going to have Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Griffey, Phillips, Gonzo, EE all back next year. I think Dunn is the only one in question. If we bring him back too, we are just bringing back the same nucleus with a few tweeks. Is that going to push us in to the playoffs? We need change, signing Dunn long term will seal another 5 years of losing baseball in Cincinnati. Not because Dunn is terrible, but because he is too expensive for what he brings to the table, at least for the Reds.

[Degenerate39]

I was kidding about Craig Wilson. My point and the reason I quoted you was, if we resign Dunn, we aren't making the major move that needs to be made to change this team. We're just back to swapping out spare parts. We are going to have Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Griffey, Phillips, Gonzo, EE all back next year. I think Dunn is the only one in question. If we bring him back too, we are just bringing back the same nucleus with a few tweeks. Is that going to push us in to the playoffs? We need change, signing Dunn long term will seal another 5 years of losing baseball in Cincinnati. Not because Dunn is terrible, but because he is too expensive for what he brings to the table, at least for the Reds.

You forget were losing Milton so that's 9 million we can use.

[eastkyred]

You forget were losing Milton so that's 9 million we can use.

If we resign Dunn, that money is gone. Arroyo and Harang get about 2.5 mil each in raises next year with their new contracts, Stanton gets 1.5 and Dunn would get 3 if we pick up his option. That's 9.5 million right there.

[redsupport]

stanton is the man

[Degenerate39]

If we resign Dunn, that money is gone. Arroyo and Harang get about 2.5 mil each in raises next year with their new contracts, Stanton gets 1.5 and Dunn would get 3 if we pick up his option. That's 9.5 million right there.

That's just with Miltons money. I'm sure Bob C. has plenty more to spend for a closer and more bullpen help.

[eastkyred]

That's just with Miltons money. I'm sure Bob C. has plenty more to spend for a closer and more bullpen help.

that's a whole different story. If I thought we were going to up our payroll, that may change my thinking on the whole thing. But do you really believe that our payroll is going to go from $70 mil this year to $85 or $90 mil next year? That would be great, but I don't see it happening.

[klw]

Well trying to throw some stats at the original observation/ point of the thread.

In close and late games the Reds are 13th in the NL in Runs scored, are last in Batting average ( a very robust .206) and are 15th in OPS

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=OPS&split=60&season=2007

With the bases loaded for the year the Reds are 15th in Batting Average and OPS. They are only 10 for 46. Most teams do better in this situation as the pitcher is already struggling and will be more likely to come after the batter. The hitter can sit on his pitch. The Reds do worse.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=94&season=2007

With Runners in Scoring Position with 2 outs the Reds are hitting .202 for 15th in the NL. (They are 13th in OPS) Only Milwaukee is worse.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=185&season=2007

With Runners in Scoring Position the Reds are last in Batting Average and only are ahead of Pittsburgh in OPS.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=OPS&split=39&season=2007

In the Good News department, the Reds lead the NL in HR with runners on base (not just in scoring position) and they are 7th in OPS despite being 15th in batting average, on base percentage, and in doubles.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=homeRuns&split=38&season=2007

With no one on base, the Reds are 3rd in slugging, 3rd in OBP, 4th in Batting average, OPS and 2nd in runs scored (HR's).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=OPS&split=37&season=2007

With no one one the Reds HR/AB is 28.9 2nd
With runners on the Reds HR/AB is 24.2 1st
With runners in Scoring position 30.3 2nd
With RISP, 2outs 31.9 7th
Close and Late 38.2 7th
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=exp2&sort=atBatsPerHomeRun&split=38&season=2007

the Reds 7th hitter his HR at a rate of 1 every 22 at bats, the clean up hitter 1 every 28


Conclusion, the Reds are awful with Runners on and in late close games. Was that news to anyone?

[Reds Freak]

To get this thread back on track...

Someone with more statistical knowledge please explain this to me. I've read Moneyball, I've done a little bit of research but by no means am I a sabermatician. Everything I've read about the subject is that hitting with RISP is 100 percent all luck. However, the past five years every Reds team seems to be incredibly woeful in this category. I don't have the time to look up the numbers the past 5 years but it seems like we talk about it every year. Has this franchise just been cursed with terrible luck the past 5 years or is hitting with RISP have a little more to do than pure luck?

[klw]

Its ugly. 2000 was the last year the Reds were in the top half in the NL in BA with runners in scoring position but to be fair most years they were not very good with no runners.


RISP ba obp slg ops No Runners ba obp slg ops
2007 .229 .333 .379 .712 16th in BA 4th in ba .263 .325 .426 .751
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2007

2006 .243 .347 .404 .751 16th in BA 14th in ba .256 .327 .438 .765
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2006

2005 .256 .362 .446 .808 11th BA but 3rd OPS 10th in ba .255 .318 .433 .751
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2005

2004 .248 .364 .418 .781 13th in BA 16th in BA .244 .311 .405 .716
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2004

2003 .250 .340 .387 .727 12th in BA 16th in BA .239 .303 .390 .693
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2003

2002 .231 .341 .371 .713 16th in BA 10th in BA .257 .322 .418 .740
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2002

2001 .247 .340 .385 .385 14th in BA 3rd in BA .265 .320 .428 .747
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2001

2000 .264 .347 .416 .763 6th in BA 6th in BA .268 .334 .433 .767
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=8&seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=avg&split=39&season=2000

[klw]

And what it really is all about

Year Runs Scored NL Rank OPS NL Rank
2007 268 5 6
2006 749 7 7
2005 820 1 1
2004 750 10 10
2003 694 13 14
2002 709 9 10
2001 735 12 10
2000 825 5 5

[FlightRick]

Has this franchise just been cursed with terrible luck the past 5 years or is hitting with RISP have a little more to do than pure luck?

It's got to be more than luck.

Look, I'll be the first to grant that attempts to quantify a player's "clutch-ness" are kind of silly, and that "clutch" is pretty much a subjective measure in which a player's performance in certain situations is modified by some Unquantifiable Mutliplier that includes things like the closeness of the game, the impact on a pennant race, or whether SportsCenter decides to make a big fat hairy deal out of the particular at-bat in question.

But hitting with runners on? There's no question in my mind that you can measure that and have it hold up as a valuable metric regarding a player's overall worth. Why? Because, assuming there is not a total failure of coaching, a player should be trying to do something different with a runner at third with one out than he would with a runner at first and two outs.

And I'm not talking about asking Adam Dunn to lay down a bunt. That would be retarded. But I also don't accept "he is what he is, so you don't ask him to change his approach." If you're physically unable (or mentally unwilling) to make these sorts of minor adjustments, maybe your skill set is still wanting at some level? [Note: please do not take this as an attempt to derail this thread into Dunn-hating, for that is not my intent. I actually lean gently towards the pro-Dunn crowd around here; it's just that he is a guy who makes it so damned easy.]

We may not be able to quantify "clutch," but we can measure the ability of a hitter to make these necessary adjustments. Whether it's BA or SLG or whatever, if you look at how a batter does with RISP, I think you're looking at how adept a batter is at producing in a manner that might be 15 degrees off center from his usual approach. And sue me for thinking that somebody who can excel when making these adjustments might, at the end of the day, be a bit more valuable than a one-dimensional hitter.

And for thinking that there's a lot more involved in it than luck....

[Jr's Boy]

This is just a rollover from last season.

[klw]

YEAR OPS overall (rank) OPS RISP (rank) OPS None on (Rank) Dif RISP VS NONE Runs scored rank
2007 .751 6 .715 15 .752 4 -.037 5

2006 .768 7 .751 12 .765 2 -.014 7

2005 .785 1 .808 3 .751 4 +.057 1

2004 .749 10 .781 7 .716 12 +.065 10

2003 .713 14 .727 13 .693 13 +.034 13

2002 .738 10 .713 13 .740 6 -.027 9

2001 .744 12 .725 15 .747 6 -.022 10

2000 .790 5 .765 11 .767 7 -.002 5


What strikes me is that, for the Reds anyway, during this period the team's overall OPS corresponds to runs scored better in terms of league rankings than does either OPS with RISP or OPS none on.

[klw]

NL Averages

YEAR Overall OPS OPS RISP OPS None On DIF REDS DIF
2007 .730 .756 .712 +.044 -.037
2006 .761 .772 .747 +.025 -.014
2005 .744 .762 .728 +.034 +.057
2004 .756 .762 .746 +.016 +.065
2003 .748 .769 .732 +.037 +.034
2002 .741 .758 .733 +.025 -.027
2001 .756 .778 .740 +.038 -.022
2000 .773 .781 .759 +.022 -.002

[klw]

Player OPS OPS RISP 2 out OPS RISP OPS runners on OPS none on OBP NONE OPS Late+close

KG Jr .897 1.100 .877 1.036 .789 .331 .544

Dunn .877 .620 .761 .819 .923 .371 .544

Hamilton .870 .853 .768 .985 .809 .333 .718

Hatteberg .846 .762 .665 .812 .872 .378 1.114

Gonzalez .830 .299 .564 .679 .968 .379 .463

Phillips .818 .842 .875 .808 .824 .331 .752

Hopper .748 .629 .717 .688 .785 .340 .846

Conine .745 .972 .858 .733 .751 .328 .459

EE .736 .790 .912 .815 .674 .337 .414

Valentin .708 .685 .943 .651 .751 .368 .900

Freel .676 .733 .842 .855 .588 .265 .510

Ross .593 1.078 .602 .658 .515 .269 .243


Reds .751 .690 .711 .751 .752 .325 .594

Opponents .765 .865 .844 .843 .705 .305 .843

Gonzalez, Dunn and Hamilton have all thrived in the 2 spot
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&seasonYear=2007&split=110&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=batting

Gonzalez and EE have both done will at 7th as has Hamilton in more limited sample
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&seasonYear=2007&split=115&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=batting

Production from the 5th spot has been poor though Phillips and Hamilton have done well in small samples. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&seasonYear=2007&split=115&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=batting

Freel has been ugly in the leadoff spot.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&seasonYear=2007&split=109&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=batting

The clean up spot has been outperformed with Jr doing far better in the 3 spot though Dunn has been okay in small sample.


Based on this my suggested lineup would be
Gonzalez
Hamilton
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
Hatteberg/Conine
Encarnacion
Ross
Pitcher

I could see moving EE up but he has struggled in the 4, 5 and 6 spots so far this year. I would stick to this lineup for more than a day. The complaint people may have about Gonzalez in the leadoff should be quashed by his OBP with no one on. After the 6th inning substitute the team with ushers from the stands.