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Homer Bailey
06-09-2007, 12:45 PM
Posted this in another thread but got no response...

In listening to the radio after the game, Tracy was saying that Homer's arbitration clock started early by bringing him up tonight, but I thought if he was brought up after June 1st it didnt start early? I finally go thru to tracy and my phone died..... was he wrong in thinking that July 1st is the key date?

jnwohio
06-09-2007, 02:41 PM
Posted this in another thread but got no response...

In listening to the radio after the game, Tracy was saying that Homer's arbitration clock started early by bringing him up tonight, but I thought if he was brought up after June 1st it didnt start early? I finally go thru to tracy and my phone died..... was he wrong in thinking that July 1st is the key date?

Bailey's service time started when he went on the 25 active roster. The issue about an "early start on arbitration" is this;

Players with 3 full years or more of major league service time are automatically arbitration eligible (I heard Krivsky say the other nite that a year is defined as 172 days on either the 25 man active roster or the Major League disabled list). However, as part of the collective bargaining agreement, there is a category called Super Two who are also arbitration eligible even though they do not have 3 full years of service. A super two is a player who falls into the top 17% (in service time) of all players with more than 2 but less than 3 years of service time at the end of any given season (the most recent Reds super two I am aware of is Jason LaRue).

The deal with Homer Bailey and "early arbitration" is will he become arbitration eligible after the 2009 season by virtue of being a super two at that time.

Research shows that players who are up for the first time prior to June 1 and subsequently stay up all that season and all the next two seasons almost always become super two players. Players brought up for the first time after June 15th rarely become super two. So Bailey is up right in the middle of the range of the cutoff time for becoming a super two. There is really no way to even start to get a solid feel for where the cut off will be after the 2009 season until at least the end of this season; and more realistically after the end of the 2008 season.

Homer Bailey
06-09-2007, 03:42 PM
Bailey's service time started when he went on the 25 active roster. The issue about an "early start on arbitration" is this;

Players with 3 full years or more of major league service time are automatically arbitration eligible (I heard Krivsky say the other nite that a year is defined as 172 days on either the 25 man active roster or the Major League disabled list). However, as part of the collective bargaining agreement, there is a category called Super Two who are also arbitration eligible even though they do not have 3 full years of service. A super two is a player who falls into the top 17% (in service time) of all players with more than 2 but less than 3 years of service time at the end of any given season (the most recent Reds super two I am aware of is Jason LaRue).

The deal with Homer Bailey and "early arbitration" is will he become arbitration eligible after the 2009 season by virtue of being a super two at that time.

Research shows that players who are up for the first time prior to June 1 and subsequently stay up all that season and all the next two seasons almost always become super two players. Players brought up for the first time after June 15th rarely become super two. So Bailey is up right in the middle of the range of the cutoff time for becoming a super two. There is really no way to even start to get a solid feel for where the cut off will be after the 2009 season until at least the end of this season; and more realistically after the end of the 2008 season.


Wow great insight and great post. Thank you very much.

jnwohio
06-09-2007, 04:39 PM
Wow great insight and great post. Thank you very much.


Any insight I had to share on this is thanks to hearing Krivsky explain the issue for Doc on Sports Talk this week.

BucksandReds
06-09-2007, 04:54 PM
I think that they should try to sign him long term before arbitration at a very fair rate. If we are going to make a strong playof push in the next 5 years he WILL be a very integral part of it. We have no choice but to bank on him long term. Keep him happy and let him know that he is the Red's furture Ace.

kaldaniels
06-09-2007, 05:15 PM
I think that they should try to sign him long term before arbitration at a very fair rate. If we are going to make a strong playof push in the next 5 years he WILL be a very integral part of it. We have no choice but to bank on him long term. Keep him happy and let him know that he is the Red's furture Ace.

I don't know about that...how many years are you talking??? Signing him for his arb years takes care of the three years before he would hit FA...plus any others you want to tack on, (lets say 2). In that case we'd be looking at a mega 5+ yr deal for a pitcher less than 3 years into his career. Business wise....not a smart gamble. Homer Bailey will be the one who decides whether to stay a Red....the Reds will never be able to compete for his services if it is all about money (which in 90 percent of the cases, it is). Until FA, play it by ear regarding his contract. Treat him fairly and respectfully come contract/arb time each year and that is the Reds' best chance.

TC81190
06-09-2007, 08:35 PM
Homer gets his FA year early now doesn't he?

Homer Bailey
06-10-2007, 12:05 AM
Homer gets his FA year early now doesn't he?

Did you not read the thread?

TC81190
06-10-2007, 12:58 AM
Did you not read the thread?

Well, yes I did, and I found no mention of when he becomes a FA. Only arbitration details.

kaldaniels
06-10-2007, 01:03 AM
Well, yes I did, and I found no mention of when he becomes a FA. Only arbitration details.

Ok then...it is my understanding that a player gets 3 arbitration years then FA...no budging on that one. What is debatable now (and was mentioned earlier) is when Homer will reach arbitration. Hence...no one is for sure at this point.

TC81190
06-10-2007, 01:21 AM
Ok then...it is my understanding that a player gets 3 arbitration years then FA...no budging on that one. What is debatable now (and was mentioned earlier) is when Homer will reach arbitration. Hence...no one is for sure at this point.

OK, so he wouldn't get just get 4 years of arb., he'd actually get his F year early too.

Why didn't we wait 3 weeks... :(

jnwohio
06-10-2007, 11:09 PM
OK, so he wouldn't get just get 4 years of arb., he'd actually get his F year early too.

Why didn't we wait 3 weeks... :(


I think he still has to have 6 years of service time to become a FA. What he gets if he becomes a super 2 is an "extra" year of arbitration.

JLB5
06-11-2007, 09:28 AM
If Bailey is the real deal, this discussion is essentially irrelevant. Top players don't go to arb because the teams know they are valuable and typically ink them to decent contracts and avoid the situation all together. As for Homer becoming a "Super 2" he's in the range, but it depends how many players who have been called up stick after this year. In most years, anybody called up after June 1 is safe. Here's an earlier post that details it:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1340783&postcount=42

If Bailey stays up all year, he will tally 115 days of service. That's usually not enough for Super 2 (typically takes more than 130).

rotnoid
06-11-2007, 10:20 AM
I don't know about that...how many years are you talking??? Signing him for his arb years takes care of the three years before he would hit FA...plus any others you want to tack on, (lets say 2). In that case we'd be looking at a mega 5+ yr deal for a pitcher less than 3 years into his career. Business wise....not a smart gamble. Homer Bailey will be the one who decides whether to stay a Red....the Reds will never be able to compete for his services if it is all about money (which in 90 percent of the cases, it is). Until FA, play it by ear regarding his contract. Treat him fairly and respectfully come contract/arb time each year and that is the Reds' best chance.

I'm not sure I agree that the Reds won't be able to compete financially. Granted, a lot has to go right for them to do so, but IF they are competitive in 2008, 2009, and 2010, by the time it's time to start thinking LTC for Bailey, attendance should be up. Higher attendance and marketability leads necessarily to higher revenues. You have to take Cast at his word that higher revenues are the key to higher payroll at this point. If all these things come to pass, then the Reds should very much be able to compete financially to secure Bailey as a FA. Of course, these IFs are almost as big as IF he becomes the stud Cincinnati thinks he will. This is all moot if he doesn't.

SMcGavin
06-11-2007, 03:22 PM
I think he still has to have 6 years of service time to become a FA. What he gets if he becomes a super 2 is an "extra" year of arbitration.

I'm pretty sure this is correct.

klw
06-11-2007, 04:20 PM
Here's the Bailey Arbitration Clock
http://www.7is7.com/otto/countdown.html

Homer Bailey
06-11-2007, 04:42 PM
Well, yes I did, and I found no mention of when he becomes a FA. Only arbitration details.

Sorry I misread your question. Didn't mean to be a smart rear-end.