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View Full Version : Ken Rosenthal says Adam Dunn is available for a trade



Jpup
06-09-2007, 04:43 PM
Padres and Dodgers are interested. He says the Angles have had past interest.

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mth123
06-09-2007, 04:53 PM
Most want top young pitching for Dunn, but I'd go the bat route with a lower rated arm for the mix as a kicker.

From Padres I'd want Kevin Kouzmanoff (and I'd play him in LF) and Clay Hensley.

From the Dodgers I'd want Matt Kemp and idealy Broxton or Billingsley. Realistically Chin Hui Tsao or Hong Chih Kuo would come instead.

If the Reds could get a young cheap power bat to take Dunn's spot, they could put the money toward a proven pitcher to go with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey for 2008. Trading for a young pitcher as the main return is just too risky IMO. The Reds would need to spend some money to replace Dunn in the line-up and would be relying too much on unproven pitching for my taste.

jesusfan
06-09-2007, 05:02 PM
Dunn and Lohse for Kemp Broxton and Billingsley.... Sign me up!

Kemp inserted into our starting line-up and Broxton as our closer, Add Billingsley to Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Belisle...

cincy09
06-09-2007, 05:08 PM
Dunn and Lohse for Kemp Broxton and Billingsley.... Sign me up!

Kemp inserted into our starting line-up and Broxton as our closer, Add Billingsley to Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Belisle...

Sounds good, but awful unrealistic to me!

jesusfan
06-09-2007, 05:12 PM
Sounds good, but awful unrealistic to me!

Dunn is a Legit power source in the middle of your line-up who will hit 40+ Home-runs, 100 RBI, with a high OBP and Lohse is a good #4/5 pitcher... I know the dodgers would do this with the exception of Broxton, I don't think they want to deal him, he is a legit closer right now...

TOBTTReds
06-09-2007, 05:20 PM
Dunn is a Legit power source in the middle of your line-up who will hit 40+ Home-runs, 100 RBI, with a high OBP and Lohse is a good #4/5 pitcher... I know the dodgers would do this with the exception of Broxton, I don't think they want to deal him, he is a legit closer right now...

We might have to add a good MiL pitcher.

cincyinco
06-09-2007, 05:26 PM
Looks okay on paper, but when you figure in salaries, how does that work out? Seems to me someone has to take on a lot of cash. If we swallow Dunn's salary, then I don't think its too far fetched for the third player. But if the Dodgers are taking Lohse's and Dunn's Salary off our hands, we'd be lucky to get a guy like Billingsley IMO.

jesusfan
06-09-2007, 05:27 PM
I wouldn't trade Arroyo yet.... but I know Dunn, and Arroyo for Billingsley, Broxton and Kemp gets done... Billingsley is a stud starting pitcher by the way..

jesusfan
06-09-2007, 05:29 PM
Looks okay on paper, but when you figure in salaries, how does that work out? Seems to me someone has to take on a lot of cash. If we swallow Dunn's salary, then I don't think its too far fetched for the third player. But if the Dodgers are taking Lohse's and Dunn's Salary off our hands, we'd be lucky to get a guy like Billingsley IMO.

Yes... very lucky... Depends on the Dodgers interest in Dunn and how much money they are willing to spend... The one thing that scares off teams is the fact that the option goes away if he is traded and therefore Dunn becomes a 1/2 year rent-a-player unless that team resigns him...

KronoRed
06-09-2007, 05:31 PM
I wouldn't deal Dunn and make a closer the key part of it, a closer is the last thing when you have few trading chips and a bunch of holes like this team has.

TOBTTReds
06-09-2007, 05:40 PM
If Dunn and Lohse got traded around the break, there would be about 5.25 mil left on Dunns, and 2.1 on Lohse's. I would be fine halving the salaries to work a deal. Everything is off the books at the end of the year.

jojo
06-09-2007, 06:05 PM
You have to keep in mind that even if Dunn was Babe Ruth, teams would only be trading for 3 months of him....

Kemp, Broxton and Billingsley are all young, cheap and under several years of control. There simply isn't any way the Dodgers or any other team does any deal with similar parameters as those to rent a player.

At this point, salary probably isn't an issue because guys like Dunn and Lohse are rent a players now. It's the years of control and balance of talent that are the keys (4-5 years of useful several major leaguers for 3 months of a guy). Also the fact that the Reds would be on the hook for Dunn's '08 option if they don't trade him could actually be used as leverage against Krivsky.

I think the Freddie Garcia trade in '04 is probably a decent comparable. Basically Seattle traded 3 months of Freddie Garcia (considered a TOR guy at the time) for Reed, Oliva and Morse. In other words, the Reds might get three young guys they could rush but there is going to be significant risk attached. However, Dunn is basically a bat with no leather so he probably has less trade value than a TOR guy. Otherwise I think you're looking at a major league ready guy (probably an arm for the pen) and maybe a couple of younger prospects assuming several teams form a bidding war. I'm having a hard time seeing how trading Dunn could end up with a return that instantly makes the Reds better for this season or next (and that's not because I worship at the alter of Dunn because my post history on the subject clearly indicates I don't).

I'd like to see the Reds raid the farm from either team in LA.

Anyway, that's my humble two cents.

Caveat Emperor
06-09-2007, 06:22 PM
Adam Dunn is available for a trade. Padres and Dodgers are interested. He says the Angles have had past interest.

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When Adam Dunn is traded (because I'd say it is almost inevitable at this point), this place is going to melt down when everyone realizes what little value comes back in return for him.

At this point, I think the Reds would be beyond lucky to get one fairly good, projectable A+/AA arm and a few other minor league throw ins. They won't get anyone who is any good that is close to ML ready -- they certainly won't get a power bat above AA in return (if a team had that, they'd probably be playing that person instead of trading for Dunn) and they aren't going to get any starting pitching above the AA level.

Sounds to me like another bolster-the-bullpen trade in the works.

RBA
06-09-2007, 06:22 PM
Any return for Dunn must start with Flash Bailey and Buck Mitchell from the Isotopes.

Kc61
06-09-2007, 06:44 PM
How about a true centerfielder and a pitching prospect for Dunn. When all is said and done, Reds still don't have a centerfielder.

edabbs44
06-09-2007, 06:57 PM
If LA is getting Dunn, I would like to see Meloan be a part of the deal.

They're not going to deal a key part of their major league roster like Broxton to get Dunn. Gotta look at some minor leaguers. It defeats the purpose of getting Dunn. Meloan is Broxton, but in AA.

Benihana
06-09-2007, 06:59 PM
Most want top young pitching for Dunn, but I'd go the bat route with a lower rated arm for the mix as a kicker.

From Padres I'd want Kevin Kouzmanoff (and I'd play him in LF) and Clay Hensley.

From the Dodgers I'd want Matt Kemp and idealy Broxton or Billingsley. Realistically Chin Hui Tsao or Hong Chih Kuo would come instead.

If the Reds could get a young cheap power bat to take Dunn's spot, they could put the money toward a proven pitcher to go with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey for 2008. Trading for a young pitcher as the main return is just too risky IMO. The Reds would need to spend some money to replace Dunn in the line-up and would be relying too much on unproven pitching for my taste.

here is the problem with this logic. What "proven pitcher" are the Reds going to get with the saved money? In a market where Gil Meche gets a 5-year $55 million deal and Jeff Suppan and AJ Burnett are both >$10 million/year guys, how are the Reds realistically going to sign anything better than Kyle Lohse without getting their faces ripped off? Who are they going to sign- Carlos Zambrano? I mean, we have to be realistic about things, and that is why they need to get back some young pitching for Dunn and/or Griffey.

While John Danks or Jon Lester may be too much to ask for, I would at least go after a Chad Billingsley, and I'm not sure we could even get that back. I'd much rather have a couple stopgaps playing LF and C until Frazier/Mesoraco/whoever become ready than trying to sign a veteran pitcher with the freed up cash, because this current pitcher's market just doesn't make sense. You would be looking at an Eric Milton-type signing part II.

Benihana
06-09-2007, 07:01 PM
If LA is getting Dunn, I would like to see Meloan be a part of the deal.

They're not going to deal a key part of their major league roster like Broxton to get Dunn. Gotta look at some minor leaguers. It defeats the purpose of getting Dunn. Meloan is Broxton, but in AA.

I would trade Dunn for Billingsley and Meloan, if they balked at Billingsley and Broxton.

Then, I would try to trade Hatteberg and Lohse for a young serviceable LF to pair with Ryan Freel.

RedEye
06-09-2007, 07:09 PM
What about Ethier? Doesn't he project as a CF? I hope Caveat is wrong about Dunn's value, but I have a sinking feeling that he is right. And, if we can't get anything back for Dunn, I'm not sure it's worth trading him right now.

schroomytunes
06-09-2007, 07:21 PM
Well if we are talking to SD/LAD, then these are the players I want back for Adam Dunn.

From SD:
Cla Meridith(RP)-good young arm for the bullpen
Clay Hensley(SP)-he becomes our 5th starter in 08

From LAD:
Andre Etheir-young corner OF who plays solid D, and is capable of 15-20 hrs, 100rbi's and batting average @280-300.

Chad Billingsley-young arm that can step into the 5th starter spot in 08.

I like either deal as it shores up next years rotation, and gives us pieces where we need them, ie bullpen, corner of.

corkedbat
06-09-2007, 07:22 PM
I would like to widen the trade and throw in a couple of others and try to get at least two or three pieces for AD.

I'm firmly in the move Dunn IF you can get a decent return for him - we probably should have made the move last year. I just can't justify the money it will take to pick up his option or extend him. I would gladly encourage other teams to take advantage of 72-hour windows if it meant a bigger return.

If we could work a deal for Billingsley, Broxton and a young bat I would be ecstatic, I wouldn't mind dipping into some of the Angels' you Major League-ready talent too.

I'd even be willing to combine Arroyo with Dunn and a young reliever if it brought the right mix in return (I'm afraid even that package won't bring nearly as much as we would have once hoped though).

corkedbat
06-09-2007, 07:31 PM
Well if we are talking to SD/LAD, then these are the players I want back for Adam Dunn.

From SD:
Cla Meridith(RP)-good young arm for the bullpen
Clay Hensley(SP)-he becomes our 5th starter in 08

From LAD:
Andre Etheir-young corner OF who plays solid D, and is capable of 15-20 hrs, 100rbi's and batting average @280-300.

Chad Billingsley-young arm that can step into the 5th starter spot in 08.

I like either deal as it shores up next years rotation, and gives us pieces where we need them, ie bullpen, corner of.

If Dunn would bring Billingsley and Either from LA, I'd think you could get Linebrink (or Heath Bell) and another from the Friars. Would you rather have Meridith than either of them?

Highlifeman21
06-09-2007, 07:39 PM
What about Ethier? Doesn't he project as a CF? I hope Caveat is wrong about Dunn's value, but I have a sinking feeling that he is right. And, if we can't get anything back for Dunn, I'm not sure it's worth trading him right now.

Adam Dunn's greatest value is to remain a Cincinnati Red.

We won't get what he's worth, nor what we want if we were to move him, so the logic dictates, why move him?

Trading Adam Dunn will only hurt this ballclub.

KronoRed
06-09-2007, 08:25 PM
When Adam Dunn is traded (because I'd say it is almost inevitable at this point), this place is going to melt down when everyone realizes what little value comes back in return for him.

I dunno about that, a ton of people just want him gone because of his strikeouts, they will party even if the return is Steve Finaley lite.

TeamBoone
06-09-2007, 08:35 PM
I hope this doesn't happen. Adam Dunn is my favorite player and I would just hate seeing him in another team's uniform.

If they want pitching for him, what will they do about the hole that will be left in the offense?

People can say all they want because of his less than stellar BA, but he's been the top producer on this team for the past three years in RBI, runs scored, HR, and walks. SOs too, but obviously it hasn't done him much harm considering the other categories in which he leads.

They'll be hard pressed to find a replacement bat that, well, gets it Dunn.

And I shall cry for a long long time. :cry:

Kc61
06-09-2007, 08:39 PM
Adam Dunn's greatest value is to remain a Cincinnati Red.

We won't get what he's worth, nor what we want if we were to move him, so the logic dictates, why move him?

Trading Adam Dunn will only hurt this ballclub.

Why move him? Well, there are some arguments to do so:

His negatives make it improvident to pay him $13.5 million per year.

After this year he has no trade protection which makes it harder to deal him.

He is only Reds property for one more year -- don't quite see a championship in that time frame.

The Reds pitching staff needs outfielders who can cover some ground.

Dunn has been prone to long slumps.

To get pitching you need to trade somebody who is pretty good.

The offense if overly left handed and will be in the future with Votto, Bruce and Hamilton. Dunn only compounds this.

What the owner once told another highly paid hitter, Ralph Kiner -- I can finish last without you.

So there are some possible reasons. And I never even mentioned the word strikeout.

TeamBoone
06-09-2007, 08:43 PM
His negatives make it improvident to pay him $13.5 million per year.

Dunn has been prone to long slumps.



I can remember most of RZ clamoring for the Reds to extend Dunn; now that it's been accomplished, most don't want him anymore.

Regarding the slumps and SO, see my post above. I still feel its a HUGE concern.

mth123
06-09-2007, 08:59 PM
here is the problem with this logic. What "proven pitcher" are the Reds going to get with the saved money? In a market where Gil Meche gets a 5-year $55 million deal and Jeff Suppan and AJ Burnett are both >$10 million/year guys, how are the Reds realistically going to sign anything better than Kyle Lohse without getting their faces ripped off? Who are they going to sign- Carlos Zambrano? I mean, we have to be realistic about things, and that is why they need to get back some young pitching for Dunn and/or Griffey.

While John Danks or Jon Lester may be too much to ask for, I would at least go after a Chad Billingsley, and I'm not sure we could even get that back. I'd much rather have a couple stopgaps playing LF and C until Frazier/Mesoraco/whoever become ready than trying to sign a veteran pitcher with the freed up cash, because this current pitcher's market just doesn't make sense. You would be looking at an Eric Milton-type signing part II.


Not really. Milton/Lohse/Dunn/Larue Lefotover/Cormier/Paul Wilson Leftover/Hatte/Conine would all be off the books (that is $33 Million from this years payroll). I think the Reds could afford a $15 Million per year starter w/o trading Dunn, but exchanging Dunn for a lower priced power bat makes it easier later on when the Harang and Arroyo contracts ratchet up and EdE and Phillips start to need more money. Of Course Griffey, Freel, Stanton and Weathers will also be going off the books by then and replaced by a cheap Jay Bruce, some young bullpen pitchers and young bats like Valaika and Rosales for he bench.

I think this team is pretty well positioned for 08 and 09 (provided Harang, Arroyo and Bailey don't blow-up from Narron's stupidity) and a proven starter will forgive a lot of sins if some of these others don't pan out.

People who say the Reds can't afford pitching in the upcoming years haven't looked at the numbers IMO.

jojo
06-09-2007, 09:38 PM
Well if we are talking to SD/LAD, then these are the players I want back for Adam Dunn.

From SD:
Cla Meridith(RP)-good young arm for the bullpen
Clay Hensley(SP)-he becomes our 5th starter in 08

From LAD:
Andre Etheir-young corner OF who plays solid D, and is capable of 15-20 hrs, 100rbi's and batting average @280-300.

Chad Billingsley-young arm that can step into the 5th starter spot in 08.

I like either deal as it shores up next years rotation, and gives us pieces where we need them, ie bullpen, corner of.


Absolute crazy talk for 3 months of Dunn....

mth123
06-09-2007, 09:57 PM
Absolute crazy talk for 3 months of Dunn....

You're right about 3 months of Dunn. I guess I'm assuming that any team that thinks Dunn's power is what they're missing to get to the next level is going to want to work out a deal with him as a part of the trade. Short of that, the return wouldn't be enough for me and I'd just keep him.

If some team thinks that Dunn's power is a foundation piece, they may not mind giving up something decent to get him and lock him up now as opposed to waiting until the competitiion can bid too.

Another thing that should help the return is the fact that two teams in the same division are rumored to be after him. I'm sure there will be an element of trying to keep him away from the competition to help drive up the price.

Marc D
06-09-2007, 10:13 PM
If the return is indeed no better than some B level prospect(s) then wouldn't we be better off keeping him, letting him walk and taking a pretty good comp pick?

I'm not 100% clear on the comp pick rules so I could be way off.

For the record I like Dunn a lot, I just don't think a small market team can have 15M a year tied up in anything less than a premier frontline pitcher. The Reds have missed their window to make Dunn the cornerstone of a championship team imo.

jojo
06-09-2007, 10:18 PM
You're right about 3 months of Dunn. I guess I'm assuming that any team that thinks Dunn's power is what they're missing to get to the next level is going to want to work out a deal with him as a part of the trade. Short of that, the return wouldn't be enough for me and I'd just keep him.

If some team thinks that Dunn's power is a foundation piece, they may not mind giving up something decent to get him and lock him up now as opposed to waiting until the competitiion can bid too.

Another thing that should help the return is the fact that two teams in the same division are rumored to be after him. I'm sure there will be an element of trying to keep him away from the competition to help drive up the price.

I actually think the fact that a team would only have to make a three month commitment to Dunn probably helps his trade value a bit because ultimately the Reds will have to get realistic about their asking price or face picking up his option or face letting him go for nothing.

Here's the thing about Dunn. While he's having an alright season with his bat (after last fall we're all breathing a sigh of relief), he's only ranked as the 11th best left field bat in the majors by VORP. Unfortunately, the left fielders for the Dodgers (Luis Gonzalez), Angels (Reggie Willits) and Atlanta (Willie Harris) are either ranked ahead of him or have VORPs that are almost identical to Dunn's. San Diego's left fielder (Cruz Jr.) is purring up these numbers: .268/.354/.444. Given Dunn's defense would be an abomination in any of those parks, its doubtful that those teams are viewing Dunn as such significant upgrade that trading for him would guarantee the playoffs. Maybe the Angels would be interested in Dunn as a DH.

The reality is that the Reds wouldn't necesarily be trying to deal Dunn from a position of strength.

mth123
06-09-2007, 10:46 PM
I actually think the fact that a team would only have to make a three month commitment to Dunn probably helps his trade value a bit because ultimately the Reds will have to get realistic about their asking price or face picking up his option or face letting him go for nothing.

Here's the thing about Dunn. While he's having an alright season with his bat (after last fall we're all breathing a sigh of relief), he's only ranked as the 11th best left field bat in the majors by VORP. Unfortunately, the left fielders for the Dodgers (Luis Gonzalez), Angels (Reggie Willits) and Atlanta (Willie Harris) are either ranked ahead of him or have VORPs that are almost identical to Dunn's. San Diego's left fielder (Cruz Jr.) is purring up these numbers: .268/.354/.444. Given Dunn's defense would be an abomination in any of those parks, its doubtful that those teams are viewing Dunn as such significant upgrade that trading for him would guarantee the playoffs. Maybe the Angels would be interested in Dunn as a DH.

The reality is that the Reds wouldn't necesarily be trying to deal Dunn from a position of strength.

I see that line of thinking and don't totally disagree. The Angels would really make the most sense, but I just don't think many teams value defense that much in LF. Most teams have a bat that they are trying to hide out there. Dunn is about as good as a number of LF defensively including the current version of Bonds, Manny, Podsednik, Carlos Lee, Burrell, Duncan, Lind, ...

I wouldn't want him playing LF in San Diego if I ran the padres though.

4256 Hits
06-09-2007, 10:52 PM
There is always the possibilty that the Reds could trade him and end up and give him big money and resign him as a FA. I don't see this happening but it could. :cool:

Red Heeler
06-09-2007, 11:24 PM
Ug, the thought of this offense without Dunn. If Dunn and Griffey were both traded without getting some ready to debut bats back, this team would make the make the '82 Reds look like Murderer's Row. Really, none of the teams that are mentioned have the kind of bats that I would want in return for Dunn. Chase Headley from the Pads is the only bat any of these teams have in the upper minors that begins to stir my interest.

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 12:38 AM
Ug, the thought of this offense without Dunn. If Dunn and Griffey were both traded without getting some ready to debut bats back, this team would make the make the '82 Reds look like Murderer's Row. Really, none of the teams that are mentioned have the kind of bats that I would want in return for Dunn. Chase Headley from the Pads is the only bat any of these teams have in the upper minors that begins to stir my interest.

Yeah, without Dunn this team might be worse than 3rd worst in baseball. Maybe they'd sink to 2nd worst...

This team is putrid right now with Dunn still here and Griffey playing quite well. They are already resembling the early '80s Reds teams.

flyer85
06-10-2007, 12:38 AM
the Reds would have to acquire a good RH bat in a trade for Dunn otherwise they are better off with getting draft picks. There is no replacement in the system anywhere near ready, especially RH.

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 12:40 AM
the Reds would have to acquire a good RH bat in a trade for Dunn otherwise they are better off with getting draft picks. There is no replacement in the system anywhere near ready, especially RH.

That's up to Wayne. This is why he's paid the big bucks...

flyer85
06-10-2007, 12:42 AM
That's up to Wayne. This is why he's paid the big bucks...maybe why he gets paid them but he certainly hasn't earned them to this point

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 12:45 AM
maybe why he gets paid them but he certainly hasn't earned them to this point

Oh, you'll get no argument here. But he needs to come up with a vision for this franchise's future. If Dunn is in that vision, then keep him. If Krivsky is a true Minnesota Twins disciple, Dunn will be dealt for pitching.

Krusty
06-10-2007, 12:57 AM
Isn't ironic that the Dodgers just called up OF Matt Kemp, one of their righthanded hitting outfield prospects? And what is the other area the Reds are lousy at besides blowing games in the eighth inning? Their record against lefthanded pitchers.

Now you put Kemp along with Broxton in a deal for Dunn, and I can see that happening. Dodgers really aren't getting home run production from the lst base and third base positions and if they are depending on 40-year old Luis Gonzalez in LF......well, that is asking alot.

Reds swing this deal and Kemp replaces Dunn in RF and hopefully changes their fortunes against lefthanded starters. Broxton sets up in the eighth inning for Weathers and later down the road for Guardado. Maybe next year Broxton becomes the closer of this club with Weathers the setup man.

Of course, Dunn's contract would have to be reworked first because there is no way the Dodgers part with Kemp and Broxton for half season rental.

flyer85
06-10-2007, 12:58 AM
I'd much rather have Kemp and Billingsley ... and the 2007 Dodgers are unlikely to miss either one

I really don't think they can afford to trade Broxton, they have no replacement

red-in-la
06-10-2007, 01:00 AM
You guys don't seem to remember that there is a line of kids coming up who look like they can hit.

You have the gift of Josh Hamilyon whom the Reds control for 6 years. Then you have Votto to play 1B and Jay Bruce to play OF with Hamilton.....and you might even want to count Drew Stubbs.

Add that to Phillips and Encarncion and they look pretty set to me.

Pitching is what the Reds need to go for.....and with Dunn especially, they should go for the blue colored chips......JR, I would let go for a couple of question marks with upside.

Wheelhouse
06-10-2007, 01:03 AM
Here's the scenario as I see it:
Conservatively 22 of 30 teams are in the playoff chase. The Reds could get more return for Adam Dunn as a rent-a-player than they could if they pick up his option and trade him at the winter meetings--especially if there is a flurry of deals with competitors trying to keep up with the Joneses. Dunn being traded now depends on the general level of trading activity at the deadline--if players like Todd Helton, Texiera, and Griffey land on contenders, I think there will be teams that will part with talent for Dunn. If it's a quiet season, Krivsky might pocket Dunn and see what he gets at the Winter Meetings.

flyer85
06-10-2007, 01:04 AM
You have the gift of Josh Hamilyon whom the Reds control for 6 years. Then you have Votto to play 1B and Jay Bruce to play OF with Hamilton.....and you might even want to count Drew Stubbs.
.Votto and Bruce are LH, and no way I am willing to count on a 22 year hacking away with a .250BA and 720 OPS in LowA

flyer85
06-10-2007, 01:06 AM
they pick up his option and trade him at the winter meetings-if they pick up his option he gets a limited no-trade clause.

The Reds should trade Jr and should also look to trade Dunn if they are not going to sign him.

Wheelhouse
06-10-2007, 01:11 AM
if they pick up his option he gets a limited no-trade clause.

The Reds should trade Jr and should also look to trade Dunn if they are not going to sign him.

Since that's the case, Dunn is a goner. We can only hope for a competitive trade market at the deadline.

flyer85
06-10-2007, 01:14 AM
as a comparison for Stubbs lets look at how a couple of other RH hitters did in low A who have not had success in the majors. Kearns as a 20 year old had a 973 OPS.

If Stubbs want to project to any kind of success in the majors who needs to be raking in Low A

mth123
06-10-2007, 01:40 AM
You guys don't seem to remember that there is a line of kids coming up who look like they can hit.

You have the gift of Josh Hamilyon whom the Reds control for 6 years. Then you have Votto to play 1B and Jay Bruce to play OF with Hamilton.....and you might even want to count Drew Stubbs.

Add that to Phillips and Encarncion and they look pretty set to me.

Pitching is what the Reds need to go for.....and with Dunn especially, they should go for the blue colored chips......JR, I would let go for a couple of question marks with upside.

The offense is very marginal now with Dunn. I agree that Votto and Bruce look like good young players but Bruce is going to replace Griffey and while he'll give the Reds better defense, younger and speedier legs and free-up a lot of money to plow into pitching, from an offensive standpoint expecting Bruce to improve the offense as compared to the current situation is a tall order. We'll be fortunate if he can simply produce at the same level as the Hall of Famer.

Votto should be an upgrade over the 1B platoon, but Hatte and Conine have combined to be effective in 2007. Votto should provide a little more power but Hatte is one of the better OBP guys on the team so I don't see him providing a huge boost from the current offense.

That still leaves the offense w/o anyone to replace Dunn's production unless one is received back in trade. I'm happy if the Reds simply keep Dunn, but if he's traded, then a replacement needs to be included as the return. A bat in return would probably be a better bet as far as the player fulfilling expectations than an arm would, and there should be plenty of money to buy an established arm with enough talent to push Arroyo and Bailey to their more logical spots as number 3 & 4 starters. If an arm is the return, that would place too much on Bailey and another prospect in two of the rotation spots and the money freed up from dealing Dunn would need to be spent on some one to replace him in the line-up. I don't want another prospect pitcher. I want an established starter that offers more certainty for the rotation. Get a high production bat prospect along the lines of Bruce and Votto for Dunn. Of all the players mentioned in this thread, I like Matt Kemp the best as the primary return.

Kc61
06-10-2007, 01:43 AM
Here's the scenario as I see it:
Conservatively 22 of 30 teams are in the playoff chase. The Reds could get more return for Adam Dunn as a rent-a-player than they could if they pick up his option and trade him at the winter meetings--especially if there is a flurry of deals with competitors trying to keep up with the Joneses. Dunn being traded now depends on the general level of trading activity at the deadline--if players like Todd Helton, Texiera, and Griffey land on contenders, I think there will be teams that will part with talent for Dunn. If it's a quiet season, Krivsky might pocket Dunn and see what he gets at the Winter Meetings.

Again, if the Reds exercise their option on Dunn for next year they cannot trade him at the Winter Meetings. He will have a full no-trade clause until June 2008, then a partial no-trade clause allowing trades only to select teams.

Folks cannot discuss Dunn like any signed player. His contract status is the key. This year, he's a few month rental for a new team trading for Dunn. Next year, if still a Red, he has no-trade protection. And if Reds keep Dunn, they get one more year -2008-at $13.5 million.

Jpup
06-10-2007, 04:04 AM
I still can't find a good reason to trade him, but I guess I'm alone.

mth123
06-10-2007, 04:24 AM
I still can't find a good reason to trade him, but I guess I'm alone.

Not really. I'd be happy if they keep Dunn and sign him long term. Just throwing out ideas if they feel they have to trade him.

jmcclain19
06-10-2007, 04:26 AM
Just FYI - I talked to my friend in the Dodgers organization, and he told me that it's not Coletti who's big on this trade, but rather one of his Asst GM - Dunn is not a Coletti type of guy.

The Dodgers would not be a bad trading partner IMO given their youth and propensity to give it away for very littl. That would be if Krivsky could be trusted to make a balanced major deal and he's shown he's certainly not capable yet of making such a fair deal.

Caveat Emperor
06-10-2007, 04:49 AM
I still can't find a good reason to trade him, but I guess I'm alone.

I'm with you.

No player should be untouchable if the return is right, but I think its long odds on the Reds getting the right return for Adam Dunn.

Highlifeman21
06-10-2007, 07:35 AM
Why move him? Well, there are some arguments to do so:

His negatives make it improvident to pay him $13.5 million per year.

After this year he has no trade protection which makes it harder to deal him.

He is only Reds property for one more year -- don't quite see a championship in that time frame.

The Reds pitching staff needs outfielders who can cover some ground.

Dunn has been prone to long slumps.

To get pitching you need to trade somebody who is pretty good.

The offense if overly left handed and will be in the future with Votto, Bruce and Hamilton. Dunn only compounds this.

What the owner once told another highly paid hitter, Ralph Kiner -- I can finish last without you.

So there are some possible reasons. And I never even mentioned the word strikeout.

You indirectly said strikeout when you said
His negatives make it improvident to pay him $13.5 million per year..

This team needs more than pitching to win. We also need offense. Trading Dunn only compounds the problem of lack of offense. Do you honestly believe that if we upgrade our LF D while sacrificing our LF O we are a contending team?

Why trade somebody who is pretty good to get pitching when you're just creating the void of lacking somebody who is pretty good?

Trading Dunn clearly is not a case of addition by subtraction.

JaxRed
06-10-2007, 11:50 AM
nm.

Matt700wlw
06-10-2007, 12:54 PM
I don't think he's worth as much as some people think he is on the trade market, but he's probably worth more to an American League team than a National League team.

KronoRed
06-10-2007, 01:47 PM
I still can't find a good reason to trade him, but I guess I'm alone.
Outside of saving cash to spend elsewhere there is no good reason, not like we have a ton of OF's beating the door down, Bruce is 2 years away, which is shockingly enough the time JR will be leaving down.

.

jojo
06-10-2007, 02:14 PM
I don't think he's worth as much as some people think he is on the trade market, but he's probably worth more to an American League team than a National League team.

There are a few teams in contention in the AL that could use an upgrade at DH (it's bee a bit of a down year there so far) but most of them have big investments there already. Dunn would be a huge upgrade at DH for Seattle for example. His handedness would be absolutely ideal for Safeco. However,they've foolishly invested in Vidro and have already shipped out some of their names that would make sense for the Reds (Soriano, Snelling) and others that would be attractive like their catching prospect J. Clement are beginning to flame out...

Finding a trade partner to fleece will be difficult. Anaheim might be the best target.

My biggest fear: Dunn for E. Santana.

LoganBuck
06-10-2007, 02:43 PM
the Reds would have to acquire a good RH bat in a trade for Dunn otherwise they are better off with getting draft picks. There is no replacement in the system anywhere near ready, especially RH.

I am not sure I like the idea of the Reds banking on extra draft picks for someone like Dunn. While in general I think this draft was ok, what would you think if you got the same players the Reds got for Aurillia for Dunn instead?

Strikes Out Looking
06-10-2007, 03:05 PM
I'm not pro-Dunn or Anti-Dunn--I love what his potential is, and am frustrated by some of his play. But I think you have to look at it from the view of the GM--even if some don't necessarily like the current GM--and what he envisions the team to look at to be in contention at some point. Doing that makes me think that Adam Dunn will probably be dealt.

And if he is dealt to the AL, I hope it is somewhere he will prosper as a DH and only play agaisnt the Reds a few times during his career. I would envision from WK's past moves that the Reds will get nearly major league ready pitching.

red-in-la
06-10-2007, 03:51 PM
As was just well put, I agree that Dunn will go because he is not a Krivsky type player.

Consider that however you want to put it, Dunn is either a 1B or a DH. He continues to be a liability in LF. If he cannot learn 1B, then he is going to be a question mark for any NL team.

And consider, can the Reds really leave JR in RF for two more years. He is a statue right now, as he continues to age, he will be a statue mounted in 2 tons of concrete.

vaticanplum
06-10-2007, 04:00 PM
As was just well put, I agree that Dunn will go because he is not a Krivsky type player.

People always say that around here...and yet Krivsky has kept Dunn at the expense of a lot. Signed him first thing, brought in a new hitting coach to work with him, has mentioned the overblown talk of his strikeouts, and basically saddled Dunn with a huge bit of the offensive burden by trading other offense-heavy players.

I've made a lot more peace with the idea of Adam Dunn being traded than I used to have, largely because at this point I honestly don't think that Cincinnati -- the city or the team -- deserves him. That said, I don't think Krivsky is that eager to trade him. His previous moves have, if anything, spoken to the contrary, and I've said it before, but I would think the result of his previous big trades will make him slightly gunshy of trading any big name players without a truly spectacular return.

Red Heeler
06-10-2007, 04:09 PM
There are a few teams in contention in the AL that could use an upgrade at DH (it's bee a bit of a down year there so far) but most of them have big investments there already. Dunn would be a huge upgrade at DH for Seattle for example. His handedness would be absolutely ideal for Safeco. However,they've foolishly invested in Vidro and have already shipped out some of their names that would make sense for the Reds (Soriano, Snelling) and others that would be attractive like their catching prospect J. Clement are beginning to flame out...

Finding a trade partner to fleece will be difficult. Anaheim might be the best target.

My biggest fear: Dunn for E. Santana.

Wladimir Balentien from the Mariners would be a good place to start. Add in Justin Thomas (LHP, AA), and you would have a good start on an interesting deal.

Strikes Out Looking
06-10-2007, 09:48 PM
Wladimir Balentien from the Mariners would be a good place to start. Add in Justin Thomas (LHP, AA), and you would have a good start on an interesting deal.

Imagine Richie Sexson and Adam Dunn in the same lineup. Talk about feast or famine!

Eric_Davis
06-11-2007, 05:25 AM
The intensity of the Padres/Dodgers/D-Backs division race could make one of them pay a good price, though the Padres should still win it "again". The Padres never get any respect from National media.

Jpup
06-11-2007, 07:50 AM
The intensity of the Padres/Dodgers/D-Backs division race could make one of them pay a good price, though the Padres should still win it "again". The Padres never get any respect from National media.

They have the best rotation in the NL. They should win everything this year in the NL. Adam Dunn would only help their chances. I just don't see much they could send back in a trade that the Reds should want.

RANDY IN INDY
06-11-2007, 09:28 AM
People always say that around here...and yet Krivsky has kept Dunn at the expense of a lot. Signed him first thing, brought in a new hitting coach to work with him, has mentioned the overblown talk of his strikeouts, and basically saddled Dunn with a huge bit of the offensive burden by trading other offense-heavy players.

I've made a lot more peace with the idea of Adam Dunn being traded than I used to have, largely because at this point I honestly don't think that Cincinnati -- the city or the team -- deserves him. That said, I don't think Krivsky is that eager to trade him. His previous moves have, if anything, spoken to the contrary, and I've said it before, but I would think the result of his previous big trades will make him slightly gunshy of trading any big name players without a truly spectacular return.

I honestly don't understand that statement, vaticanplum. What exactly does that mean? The Reds have drafted Adam Dunn, developed him in the minor league system, given him the opportunity to play major league baseball, and have paid him quite handsomely to do so. There are a lot of fans in the city of Cincinnati that really like Adam Dunn as a baseball player. I don't get it.

lollipopcurve
06-11-2007, 10:55 AM
I honestly don't understand that statement, vaticanplum. What exactly does that mean? The Reds have drafted Adam Dunn, developed him in the minor league system, given him the opportunity to play major league baseball, and have paid him quite handsomely to do so. There are a lot of fans in the city of Cincinnati that really like Adam Dunn as a baseball player. I don't get it.

Oh, you know -- the function of teams like the Reds is to provide teams like the Yankees and Red Sox with their best players. Cincinnati fans must accept the lowliness of their franchise, their unworthiness to have great --nay, legendary -- players, and come to celebrate these donations to the worthy franchises and the truly deserving fans who support them.

Just kidding, vp....

BRM
06-11-2007, 03:21 PM
More fuel to the fire from SI.



Dunn done in Cincy?

The Reds are ready to take offers on Adam Dunn, whose terrific power should draw decent interest despite the significant flaws in his game.

Lots of big names could be bandied about this trading season -- Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Mark Teixeira and perhaps even Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera are among the stars who are candidates to be moved -- but Dunn's is one name that's already out there as available, league sources told SI.com.

Dunn is what you might call the leadoff man in what could be a thrilling time for trades.

Power is about the most sought after skill right now, and Dunn has it an abundance. However, Dunn comes with a couple drawbacks, including the major question of where to play him. He's a poor and indifferent outfielder, and a few teams are now considering whether to try to acquire Dunn as a first baseman, though one scout warned, "He's terrible there. I wouldn't use him at first base."

Added one general manager, "I see him as more of an American League player and a DH."

All three Southern California teams could have interest in Dunn, as could anyone else seeking power. Dunn, who's making $10.5 million this season and has an option for $13 million next year (or a $500,000 buyout), is batting .250 with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs. While his power is elite, Dunn hasn't hit in the clutch. He's batting only .212 with runners in scoring position and .208 with runners on base.

Trading Dunn makes sense for the Reds, especially if they can get solid pitching in return -- they have allowed the most runs in the National League this season. They are one of baseball's most underachieving teams, and a bit of a shakeup could do them good, anyway. No way it could hurt.

BRM
06-11-2007, 03:37 PM
Rotoworld doesn't think Wayne can get good value for Dunn. Surprised?



According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, the Reds have already made Adam Dunn available in trade talks.

Dunn and Brandon Phillips to the Nationals for Jon Rauch and Saul Rivera? Excuse us if we don't trust GM Wayne Krivsky to get a great return for Dunn, who is on pace for a fourth straight 40-homer season. He's a tougher sell because he'd likely void his $13 million option for 2008 if traded. The Padres are believed to be interested, and the Dodgers could really use a power hitter. AL contenders with potential fits for an outfielder or DH include, the Yankees, White Sox, Mariners and Twins. However, we could see the Yankees going after Ken Griffey Jr. first and he's not a Twins kind of player even if the team did have room in its budget fot him.

deltachi8
06-11-2007, 03:48 PM
I honestly don't think that Cincinnati -- the city or the team -- deserves him.

The way I read this is that the Reds and many of the fans don't appreciate the positives Dunn actually brings to the table. I came to the conclusion sometime last year that it would be in Dunn's best interest to be traded to an organization where his skills and value would be better appreciated.

M2
06-11-2007, 03:51 PM
No way it could hurt.

Oh, I don't know about that. It could hurt a lot.

That said, I resigned myself to this when Kearns and Lopez fetched as little as they did last summer. If you put your line into the water and don't catch the fish you need then you've got to re-bait the hook.

One thing to keep in mind about a Dunn trade is that it won't be linear. It won't be Dunn for an established major leaguer. He'll be going to a contender and that team will need to keep its established major leaguers around for a playoff push. The Reds will be prospecting with him and they might even be looking at Harang types (guys who have struggled in the majors, but perhaps have some upside). the payoff won't be immediate. This really will be a deal where the success hinges on scouting and hopefully the franchise understands that this needs to be part of a larger coordinated rebuilding plan.

Ltlabner
06-11-2007, 03:59 PM
One thing to keep in mind about a Dunn trade is that it won't be linear. This really will be a deal where the success hinges on scouting and hopefully the franchise understands that this needs to be part of a larger coordinated rebuilding plan.

I'm not keen on trading Dunn, but everybody is available for the right deal.

I'd much rather the FO commit full to the "rebuild" mindset and trade Dunner for a basketfull of interesting prospects. If they somehow feal like a move or two might put them in the hunt (not sure why they would think this) then I hope the get some "impact now" sorts of guys in return for #44. But don't try to structure a deal that does both.

Aa continuation of the "part rebuild, part compete now" paradigm just isn't going to work. It diultes the return IMO and we've seen how an offseason of "split personality" moves can explode in your face.

NC Reds
06-11-2007, 04:34 PM
Trading Adam Dunn would be a huge mistake. Krivsky won't get value. Dunn is not the problem. Krivsky and Narron are the problem.

Imagine how strong the offense will be in a few years if Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce are kept together. Use the money from Milton's contract to buy some pitching this offseason. This season is lost; don't louse up the future too.

Highlifeman21
06-11-2007, 04:45 PM
Trading Adam Dunn would be a huge mistake. Krivsky won't get value. Dunn is not the problem. Krivsky and Narron are the problem.

Imagine how strong the offense will be in a few years if Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce are kept together. Use the money from Milton's contract to buy some pitching this offseason. This season is lost; don't louse up the future too.

Thank you.

Milton's off the books after this season, and Griffey's off the books after 2009. We're going to have money to spend.

Trading Adam Dunn is quite possibly the worst thing this team could do, aside from having Narron return as manager in 2008.

registerthis
06-11-2007, 05:20 PM
I have to align myself with the Krivsky-won't-get-adequate-value-for-Dunn crowd. Goodness, look at the flak Dunn gets on this board, which is comprised predominantly of educated, informed fans. The idea of krivsky scouting the market and considering offers for him is frightening. I half-expect a Dunn for Wily Mo Pena announcement any day now...

TeamBoone
06-11-2007, 05:38 PM
I will be absolutely livid if they trade him, but then, as an avid fan of the Reds AND Adam Dunn, I'm nobody.... it makes me angry just thinking about it.

I think VP, is right... the Reds franchise doesn't deserve him. They obviously haven't looked at anything other than his batting average. How remiss of them.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 05:54 PM
I've made a lot more peace with the idea of Adam Dunn being traded than I used to have, largely because at this point I honestly don't think that Cincinnati -- the city or the team -- deserves him.


I agree. I'd rather he not be traded but I'm curious to see what happens when he does. Who becomes the new whipping boy? Jr.? EE? Arroyo? Phillips? Ross? How are they going to replace his offense? What will they use their salary for, if they actually will?

Unassisted
06-11-2007, 06:13 PM
I've made a lot more peace with the idea of Adam Dunn being traded than I used to have, largely because at this point I honestly don't think that Cincinnati -- the city or the team -- deserves him.

For better or worse, the average fan's perception of Dunn is shaped mightily by the haranguing that comes from the white-haired gentleman who sits behind the microphone above the "700 WLW" sign. It would be hard for casual fans not to share that opinion after hearing it expressed over and over again on the radio for 3/4 of the year.

I give the average fan the benefit of the doubt for thinking that way. But I do wonder if the white-haired gentleman has a hidden agenda where Dunn is concerned or whether he's simply carrying water for the FO.

BRM
06-11-2007, 06:17 PM
Wayne is tight-lipped regarding this rumor.

From Fay...


Wayne Krivsky had not heard about the SI.com report saying the Reds are listening to offers on Adam Dunn. But he had the usual to say about it.

"I'm not going to comment on that," he said.

So I tried a different approach. Given the Reds' place in the standings and the inconsistency this year, isn't it reasonable to assume that everything is on the table?

"I'm not going to comment on that," he said.

Dunn is obviously pretty attractive to a teams looking for a power bat. But how much he would bring in a trade will be affected by his contract. He has an option for $13 million with a $500,000 buyout for '08. But the option is voided by a trade, and he becomes a free agent. So for Dunn to get maximum value, the Reds would probably have to allow him to negotiate with the club he's being traded to, so the club will know its getting more than a two- or three-month player.

"There's a 48-hour window that allows you do that," Krivsky said.

westofyou
06-11-2007, 06:19 PM
But I do wonder if the white-haired gentleman has a hidden agenda where Dunn is concerned or whether he's simply carrying water for the FO.

He's a product of his environment, came of age in the scrap for a run 60's cut his teeth on the best offensive machine of the last 50 years, a team that was seeped in the current style of fast baseball on plastic and yet could smash with anyone or pull a late game out of a sure loss, on the mound an at the dish.

His agenda is he refuses to evolve with the game, he is a rock who lets the game go around him and beyond when it comes to certain aspects, he'd be better off if he let it wash over him so that he'd at least recognize that there's a taste about todays MLB that was not there 30 years ago.

pedro
06-11-2007, 06:20 PM
For better or worse, the average fan's perception of Dunn is shaped mightily by the haranguing that comes from the white-haired gentleman who sits behind the microphone above the "700 WLW" sign. It would be hard for casual fans not to share that opinion after hearing it expressed over and over again on the radio for 3/4 of the year.

I give the average fan the benefit of the doubt for thinking that way. But I do wonder if the white-haired gentleman has a hidden agenda where Dunn is concerned or whether he's simply carrying water for the FO.

I thought it interesting when Joe was talking about Waite Hoyt and how much influence he had, as an announcer, getting the fans of Cincinnati to accept Joe back as a player in 1962. Although I'd suppose that the way Joe pitched in 1962 and 1963 had a lot to do with fan's "acceptance" as Nuxhall was excellent in both of those years especially 1963 which was arguably Nuxhall's best season as a Red. (BTW- How sad is it that the one year the Reds went to the World series during the years Nuxhall played was 1961, the only full year that Nuxhall was not a Red?)

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 06:28 PM
In fairness, I don't think all of the Dunn-hatredness can be laid at the feet of Marty. Sure, some of it has been picked up by the casual fan, but not all of it. I was watching a Reds game with my 8 year old son and without any questions asked he said "I don't know why so many fans wear Dunn jersey's. I don't think he's that good." Interested, I asked him why he thought that. "Well, because he strikes out a lot (1), I've seen him misplay some balls in the OF, he doesn't have a really strong arm, and he doesn't hustle a lot."

Now, I don't know if this stuff is inbred into kids born in the Cincinnati viewing area, but surely this is not something I've ever said to him, and he's only listened to Marty on the radio maybe once or twice. Everyone that watches baseball is under the impression that strike outs are the worst thing possible. They are the ultimate defeat for the hitter. They are pure evil. But I just found it interesting that's the first thing he said when I asked him why he didn't think Dunn was good. I then talked to him about strikeouts, walks, hits, etc, etc. Gave him the whole "what's the most important thing you can do on offense" speech, to which he replied "hit a HR." "Well, that's good, but the most important thing you can do as a hitter is not make an out. Any out, not just a strikeout. If you have a runner on 1st and you strike out, is that worse than hitting into a double play?" "No," he said. "Ok, so striking out isn't the worst thing at all times is it?" To which he replied "No, but he does it almost 200 times a year (he's persistant)." To which I rolled my eyes...

Anyway, I think kids playing the game just are born to believe that's the worst thing you can do. Most kids in little league are more upset about striking out than hitting a liner right to the 1st baseman and getting the guy on first doubled up. It's just nature, I think, and I think that's why some people in Cincinnati, and elsewhere, without having even listened to Marty, think that Adam Dunn is a worthless player. Because he strikes out a lot and they are all led to believe that strike outs are the worst thing you can do as a hitter.

gm
06-11-2007, 06:36 PM
nm, missed the other thread re: Twin's article

westofyou
06-11-2007, 06:39 PM
I thought it interesting when Joe was talking about Waite Hoyt and how much influence he had, as an announcer, getting the fans of Cincinnati to accept Joe back as a player in 1962. Although I'd suppose that the way Joe pitched in 1962 and 1963 had a lot to do with fan's "acceptance" as Nuxhall was excellent in both of those years especially 1963 which was arguably Nuxhall's best season as a Red. (BTW- How sad is it that the one year the Reds went to the World series during the years Nuxhall played was 1961, the only full year that Nuxhall was not a Red?)

Joe said he couldn't stick his head out of the dugout in 1960 without getting booed, they really razzed him and eventually he thought it best he get out of town. In the AL he did poorly and Hutch was wiling to give him another chance, they were short at the bottom of the rotation and Joe could start and relive.

Ltlabner
06-11-2007, 06:46 PM
Did anyone else notice that during the game yesterday that Loshe was being warmed up in the later innings?

Wonder if that was just because they were running out of bullpen guys, or if there's a deeper significance? Perhaps a move to the bullpen is in his near future because another pitcher is coming to town?

Probably just wishfull thinking on my part.

jojo
06-11-2007, 06:54 PM
Trading Adam Dunn is quite possibly the worst thing this team could do,

No offense (buh, boom, boomp) but doesn't that really depend upon who he's traded for? I can envision about 25 differrent scenarios where the Reds could be at least as good or better without Dunn.

Dunn has averaged 106 RC over the last three seasons and it's looking like he'll be somewhere around 100 again this season barring a slump. Then consider conservatively he's roughly a -10 defender (IMHO, that's a low estimate). The Reds basically need to replace roughly 90 RC to not miss Dunn at all. Add an average defender with a savvy bat worth 80 RC and the difference isn't that great. Add a great defender in center with a league average bat and well you get the idea. It's not nearly the tall order that some make it out to be provided Dunn simply isn't given away. Dunn's value is entirely derived from his bat and even then he's only the 11th ranked leftfielder in the majors by VORP.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 07:01 PM
Did anyone else notice that during the game yesterday that Loshe was being warmed up in the later innings?



I thought I was just seeing things but I noticed it too. Could have just been his day to throw between starts.

Eric_Davis
06-11-2007, 09:48 PM
Trading Adam Dunn would be a huge mistake. Krivsky won't get value. Dunn is not the problem. Krivsky and Narron are the problem.

Imagine how strong the offense will be in a few years if Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce are kept together. Use the money from Milton's contract to buy some pitching this offseason. This season is lost; don't louse up the future too.

From this point forward the REDS will get less and less for Dunn if they ever want to trade him and he will cost them more and more.

Now's the time if they want to trade him. Otherwise take a chance that he doesn't go for arbitration with us and he signs a Free-Agent contract. I would think someone would take him.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 10:07 PM
Trading Adam Dunn would be a huge mistake. Krivsky won't get value. Dunn is not the problem. Krivsky and Narron are the problem.

Imagine how strong the offense will be in a few years if Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce are kept together. Use the money from Milton's contract to buy some pitching this offseason. This season is lost; don't louse up the future too.

I agree, Dunn's not the problem. I guess the question is whether or not he can be part of the solution. I still harbor a secret hope that BCast et al. are just saving their $ for the right time to invest in quality players in our own system and in free agency. Last year's crop of FAs left a lot to be desired, and I'm glad we didn't break the bank for Soriano, Lee, Zito, Schmidt, Meche or really any of the others.

I'm relatively hopeful that Wayne and Bob's long-term plans include Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Bruce and Votto. Beyond that, I'm not really sure. If Phillips and EdE live up to the hype, they can both be cornerstones for the future. If not, Buckley has made sure that we're well stocked in the IF in the minor leagues (Valaika, Janish, etc.) and even more so after last week's draft.

My guess is that if we are going to dump Dunn, it will be in the interest of pitching... perhaps a FA as soon as this off-season. If we are indeed saving up, perhaps we're just waiting for the right time to pounce on a promising FA pitcher - after Milty's $ is off the books, and just in time to solidify the Harang-Arroyo-Bailey trio with another frontline starter.

Any ideas about who we might target?

IslandRed
06-11-2007, 10:16 PM
Anyway, I think kids playing the game just are born to believe that's the worst thing you can do. Most kids in little league are more upset about striking out than hitting a liner right to the 1st baseman and getting the guy on first doubled up. It's just nature, I think, and I think that's why some people in Cincinnati, and elsewhere, without having even listened to Marty, think that Adam Dunn is a worthless player. Because he strikes out a lot and they are all led to believe that strike outs are the worst thing you can do as a hitter.

That's true, and where kids are concerned, it's a perfectly natural thing. They're just learning to play the game and simply being able to put bat on ball is a tangible measure of success; maybe they make an out anyway but at least they're not The Kid That Always Strikes Out.

It's one more thing in the catalog of things people are wrong about when they think everything they learned in Little League applies to big-leaguers, but that's just how it is.

vaticanplum
06-11-2007, 10:56 PM
I honestly don't understand that statement, vaticanplum. What exactly does that mean? The Reds have drafted Adam Dunn, developed him in the minor league system, given him the opportunity to play major league baseball, and have paid him quite handsomely to do so. There are a lot of fans in the city of Cincinnati that really like Adam Dunn as a baseball player. I don't get it.

What deltachi, Team Boone and Chip et al. said. He's one of the best players in baseball by any measurable statistic, he's an easygoing, likable guy, and he's still very young with a lot of potential (albeit not without legitimate frustrations surrounding him). In most other cities he'd be the face of the franchise and adored, I believe. And yet in Cincinnati I can't think of a player more reviled. 9.5 out of 10 Reds fans I talk baseball with off this board can't stand him and want him off the team, and that's not an exaggeration. Those numbers are pretty much directly reversed with people I know who are hardcore baseball fans of other teams.

I think a lot of other teams would kill to have him, and I'm at the point where I think, let 'em. I adore Adam Dunn and I want him to have the best career he possibly can. He has the potential to break records or at least play an important part of a contending team. The latter is unlikely to happen here anytime soon, and his path to the former is slowing -- in part, I believe, because he's playing in an environment that wants him to be something he's not. The fans vilify him; the media picks on him. Fine. Get rid of him. Let all the press you've built up surrounding his strikeouts bite you in the butt when you get a bag of baseballs and a massage chair in return for him and then sit back and cry as he heads off to a long career in Oakland or LA -- or better yet, Houston.

Ironically, I do still believe that the powers that be on this team do appreciate him. As I noted above, Krivsky's gone to subtle but strong lengths to keep him, and I see quiet efforts on the team's behalf to play up his image (nods in interviews, his face on the banner across the reds.com homepage -- although I'm not sure they decide whose faces belong there). I wonder if Narron isn't his only strong detractor and I'm not even entirely convinced of that. My remark that the team doesn't deserve him refers more to the fact that his age and his strengths, in that ballpark, make him more or less the franchise player, and yet they've so far failed to build a good team around him. If they're going to continue to try to field a team of over-the-hill veterans or mildly talented young castoffs, then they owe it to let Dunn go somewhere else as he fits as well as a jagged edge on either of those teams. I won't have such equanimity if they actually take me up on that, though.

edabbs44
06-11-2007, 11:17 PM
Thank you.

Milton's off the books after this season, and Griffey's off the books after 2009. We're going to have money to spend.

Trading Adam Dunn is quite possibly the worst thing this team could do, aside from having Narron return as manager in 2008.

Arroyo and his 5 era will be absorbing a nice chunk of those savings.

Eric_Davis
06-11-2007, 11:18 PM
Dunn has to be among the Top 20% of all Major Leaguers from this group, 1B/DH/OF, over the 2006-2007 seasons to be a Type-A player.

It will be close.

edabbs44
06-11-2007, 11:39 PM
I feel like I just read an obituary after going through the last few pages of this thread.

What's the deal? Why is everyone so scared for him to be traded? Do they think that he is irreplaceable? Do you think that the league will not properly assess his value, therefore leaving Wayne to accept an inferior offer? Or do you think that Wayne undervalues Dunn, and will not get full value for him?

The fact of the matter is that he hasn't been traded yet, so no one should be sulking at this point. Wayne could pull a heist. Something that would help down the line a lot more than Dunn will. Does anyone expect Cincy to contend in the next 5 years without dealing anyone? That means by signing FAs and having the current farm system produce players. I cannot see the Reds making a big enough splash in the FA market to do that, and the current farm system is not ready to spit out starter after starter.

So what to do? That's the big question. If Wayne can get value for Dunn, bye bye. I completely understand that he is a big fan favorite, but sometimes you have to do what's best for the team. If Wayne can get two top quality youngsters for Dunn, then he has to go. Don't forget...he's not only getting 2 youngsters, but he's also freeing up millions in cash.

Now spending that the right way is another thread altogether.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 11:49 PM
I feel like I just read an obituary after going through the last few pages of this thread.

What's the deal? Why is everyone so scared for him to be traded? Do they think that he is irreplaceable?

I think we have inflated Dunn's value somewhat over the years. He's been a player we've invested a lot of hope in, and there's a feeling that there's still a lot left for him to show us. I still remember those "Pinstriped Paul Bunyan" and "Best Prospect Since Eric Davis" headlines when he was a 21 year-old mashing in AAA. We have a hard time letting go of those memories, even if he is, as you say, ultimately replaceable.

edabbs44
06-11-2007, 11:56 PM
I think we have inflated Dunn's value somewhat over the years. He's been a player we've invested a lot of hope in, and there's a feeling that there's still a lot left for him to show us. I still remember those "Pinstriped Paul Bunyan" and "Best Prospect Since Eric Davis" headlines when he was a 21 year-old mashing in AAA. We have a hard time letting go of those memories, even if he is, as you say, ultimately replaceable.

Ultimately, I believe he is replaceable. I believe that because I think the Reds are pretty far from building a team who can compete for years. If Wayne can turn him into a few guys who will be here for the next 6-7 years, then I'm all for it. But if he botches this one, he's done.

KoryMac5
06-11-2007, 11:56 PM
Arroyo and his 5 era will be absorbing a nice chunk of those savings.

With Milton down for the count Arroyo has turned into the new whipping boy.

Unassisted
06-12-2007, 12:04 AM
What's the deal? Why is everyone so scared for him to be traded? Do they think that he is irreplaceable? Do you think that the league will not properly assess his value, therefore leaving Wayne to accept an inferior offer? Or do you think that Wayne undervalues Dunn, and will not get full value for him?

That's a good and fair set of questions.

I think most posters fear that the return on a trade for Dunn, whatever it is, won't be enough. It's a gripe that seems to surface in discussing almost every trade made by DanO and Wayne in the last few years. A large part of the calculus of "not enough return" is the emotional investment we have in our favorite players.

I don't know what "enough" return is, but obviously the current direction ain't working, so trading Dunn is a visible step in another direction. It's a step the FO could point to and say "This is how we're fixing the problem." Combined with the apparent prevailing sentiment about Dunn in the greater Tri-State Area outside of RedsZone, the guy is being made to look more expendable every time the Reds lose.

RedEye
06-12-2007, 01:19 AM
Ultimately, I believe he is replaceable. I believe that because I think the Reds are pretty far from building a team who can compete for years. If Wayne can turn him into a few guys who will be here for the next 6-7 years, then I'm all for it. But if he botches this one, he's done.

Have to agree with you, much as it pains me to say it. I have to believe Wayne is already on a short leash with Bob after failing to do due diligence on The Trade (and basically getting ripped off even without considering Maj's injured shoulder). The trading deadline this year very well could be Wayne's day of reckoning. If he screws the pooch, I imagine we'll see a new GM a few months later.

Mario-Rijo
06-12-2007, 01:32 AM
What deltachi, Team Boone and Chip et al. said. He's one of the best players in baseball by any measurable statistic, he's an easygoing, likable guy, and he's still very young with a lot of potential (albeit not without legitimate frustrations surrounding him). In most other cities he'd be the face of the franchise and adored, I believe. And yet in Cincinnati I can't think of a player more reviled. 9.5 out of 10 Reds fans I talk baseball with off this board can't stand him and want him off the team, and that's not an exaggeration. Those numbers are pretty much directly reversed with people I know who are hardcore baseball fans of other teams.

I think a lot of other teams would kill to have him, and I'm at the point where I think, let 'em. I adore Adam Dunn and I want him to have the best career he possibly can. He has the potential to break records or at least play an important part of a contending team. The latter is unlikely to happen here anytime soon, and his path to the former is slowing -- in part, I believe, because he's playing in an environment that wants him to be something he's not. The fans vilify him; the media picks on him. Fine. Get rid of him. Let all the press you've built up surrounding his strikeouts bite you in the butt when you get a bag of baseballs and a massage chair in return for him and then sit back and cry as he heads off to a long career in Oakland or LA -- or better yet, Houston.

Ironically, I do still believe that the powers that be on this team do appreciate him. As I noted above, Krivsky's gone to subtle but strong lengths to keep him, and I see quiet efforts on the team's behalf to play up his image (nods in interviews, his face on the banner across the reds.com homepage -- although I'm not sure they decide whose faces belong there). I wonder if Narron isn't his only strong detractor and I'm not even entirely convinced of that. My remark that the team doesn't deserve him refers more to the fact that his age and his strengths, in that ballpark, make him more or less the franchise player, and yet they've so far failed to build a good team around him. If they're going to continue to try to field a team of over-the-hill veterans or mildly talented young castoffs, then they owe it to let Dunn go somewhere else as he fits as well as a jagged edge on either of those teams. I won't have such equanimity if they actually take me up on that, though.


I get ya VP, I do! I hate to see ballplayers leave that I have invested so much in, I have always hated that. But it's now a part of the game in a big way and we have to roll with the times. And I agree to some extent that he has the talent to be a cornerstone type of player. But a few things ring in my head with this situation.

#1 He cannot play in the OF, that much I have resigned myself to over the past season and a half. He doesn't posess any above average quality that would allow him to continue to play there. And if he cannot play in the OF here, the only other place would be 1st base. And he has pretty much made it clear that he doesn't relish the idea of ever playing there. Now I'm sure he would try it again for the good of the team, (something he will eventually have to try anyhow wherever he goes) but one never knows for sure (he did leave football because they wanted him to switch from QB to TE). Plus it's been said by a few that he doesn't look good there, I don't buy that but it has been said.

(Of course as I am writing this I can't help but think of Man-Ram, who makes AD look like KG in his prime. And he has a WS ring in hand, hey gotta be honest.)

#2 I cannot help but think that he has some issues floating around in that sputnik-like cranium of his that won't allow him to get better. Call it a fear of getting worse that prevents him from striving to be better, sure he sticks his toe in the water but he never just dives on in. Part of that can be attributed to being drafted and developed by a whole bunch of boneheads, who also BTW made it that much more difficult for him to get better by surrounding him with spare parts, cast offs, has beens and never will be's. That made the fans turn on him because they were so fed up with it all that at some point they just started picking at everything that was not of a positive nature (see strikeouts, below avg defense and the occassional taken out of context comment).

(Again to some extent I see Manny here, wow.)

# 3 Money!! Yup good 'ole fashioned moolah. He is now making it and his dollars are quickly outpacing his production. He is still a solid deal this season but IMO 13.5 Mill is too much to pay for a guy whose play has gotten worse every full season since '04. (Oddly enough not Manny-Esque here)

Bottom line is if I believed he would move to 1st base and attack the idea of improving in every way I would be behind you 100%. However there is little to believe that he is willing to do those things at this point, and for this franchise/city/fans. It's not nearly all his fault at how things have gone but it's mostly all his responsibility to right the ship and he just doesn't seem overly anxious which is the kind of effort it would take.

BCubb2003
06-12-2007, 01:39 AM
Would you trade Adam Dunn for the Adam Dunn of pitchers, the Adam Dunn of hitters (which would be Adam Dunn) or a prospect that might someday become Adam Dunn?

Mario-Rijo
06-12-2007, 01:43 AM
Would you trade Adam Dunn for the Adam Dunn of pitchers, the Adam Dunn of hitters (which would be Adam Dunn) or a prospect that might someday become Adam Dunn?

We already have the Adam Dunn of pitchers his name is Lohse. :help:

Highlifeman21
06-12-2007, 06:11 PM
No offense (buh, boom, boomp) but doesn't that really depend upon who he's traded for? I can envision about 25 differrent scenarios where the Reds could be at least as good or better without Dunn.

Dunn has averaged 106 RC over the last three seasons and it's looking like he'll be somewhere around 100 again this season barring a slump. Then consider conservatively he's roughly a -10 defender (IMHO, that's a low estimate). The Reds basically need to replace roughly 90 RC to not miss Dunn at all. Add an average defender with a savvy bat worth 80 RC and the difference isn't that great. Add a great defender in center with a league average bat and well you get the idea. It's not nearly the tall order that some make it out to be provided Dunn simply isn't given away. Dunn's value is entirely derived from his bat and even then he's only the 11th ranked leftfielder in the majors by VORP.

I'm sure I could envision some of the same scenarios, however, I see none coming to fruition.

Phillip Hughes for Adam Dunn? I'd buy both a Hughes Reds jersey and a Dunn Yankees jersey tomorrow.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 06:12 PM
Arroyo and his 5 era will be absorbing a nice chunk of those savings.

I'm hoping Arroyo's inflated ERA right now is an abberation...

His baseball card would suggest his ERA shouldn't be this bad...

Highlifeman21
06-12-2007, 06:13 PM
Arroyo and his 5 era will be absorbing a nice chunk of those savings.

Once we extended Arroyo, I thought we should have traded him.

If there's 1 Red I think would have value at the TD, it would be Arroyo, unless he's injured, which is a strong possibility given Narron's workload.

edabbs44
06-12-2007, 06:17 PM
Once we extended Arroyo, I thought we should have traded him.

If there's 1 Red I think would have value at the TD, it would be Arroyo, unless he's injured, which is a strong possibility given Narron's workload.

He would have had more value before the extension.

MartyFan
06-12-2007, 07:52 PM
What about Dunn to the Orioles for Trachsel and a minor league talent?

The_jbh
06-12-2007, 07:55 PM
What about Dunn to the Orioles for Trachsel and a minor league talent?

uh? barf?

MartyFan
06-12-2007, 07:57 PM
uh? barf?

:laugh:

What do you really think?

Jpup
06-13-2007, 06:43 AM
5 years and 65-70 million would be about right for Adam Dunn IMO. I just can't understand the hatred for the guy except that people think strikeouts are akin to kicking their dogs. It's a shame that a guy with his talent can't be understood.

If the Reds trade Adam Dunn, it will be a monumental mistake. The Reds need to hit him 4th and put another strong right handed bat behind him and he would explode. He gets jerked around so much, it's no wonder his production is not what some of us expect.

jojo
06-13-2007, 12:17 PM
It's a shame that a guy with his talent can't be understood.

I understand his talent perfectly. IMHO I also don't think trading him would be a monumental mistake.

To me here's the situation with fans concerning Dunn. Those that think he's worth much less than he actually is and those that think he's worth much more than he actually is are both very vocal and drown out the group of people who truly see his actual worth. Ironically both of the vocal poles criticize the the group that accurately assesses Dunn's value for opposite reasons.

Krusty
06-13-2007, 12:19 PM
Please, Adam Dunn to the Dodgers for RHP John Broxton and OF Matt Kemp.

Make it happen Krivsky.

registerthis
06-13-2007, 12:19 PM
I understand his talent perfectly. IMHO I also don't think trading him would be a monumental mistake.

I don't either.

Dunn's a very good player, but he doesn't possess the gold fleece. At any rate, the Reds would be foolish to at least not be entertaining offers for him.

dabvu2498
06-13-2007, 12:24 PM
5 years and 65-70 million would be about right for Adam Dunn IMO.

I bet his agent disagrees.

flyer85
06-13-2007, 12:28 PM
Trading Dunn is not a problem. What WK gets in return is the issue.

For trading Dunn to work for the Reds WK has to know what he must get in return for the organization to move forward. IMHO at a minimum he MUST get a young RH OF bat with some pop. Simply dangling him out there and taking the best avaliable offer is a recipe for disaster.

registerthis
06-13-2007, 12:38 PM
For trading Dunn to work for the Reds WK has to know what he must get in return for the organization to move forward. IMHO at a minimum he MUST get a young RH OF bat with some pop. Simply dangling him out there and taking the best avaliable offer is a recipe for disaster.

I agree with half of that--accepting the best available offer is a bad idea, accepting a truly good offer (even one that doesn't include a RH outfield bat) would not necessarily be a bad thing. It all depends on what the return is. I'm less concerned with the specific role of the player(s) obtained in the return, and more concerned with the fact that they are legitimately *good*.

jojo
06-13-2007, 12:47 PM
Trading Dunn is not a problem. What WK gets in return is the issue.

For trading Dunn to work for the Reds WK has to know what he must get in return for the organization to move forward. IMHO at a minimum he MUST get a young RH OF bat with some pop. Simply dangling him out there and taking the best available offer is a recipe for disaster.

It would be nice if Dunn was flipped for something young and flashy but really all Krivsky has to get in return is parts that sum up to positively influence the RS/RA equation to the tune of 90 runs be they via trade or people they bring in with freed payroll.

Three caveats:
1. spelling it out as above illustrates how simple it would be in an academic sense but its a lot more complicated in practice as rosters can be terribly complex beasts. It's definitely within the realm of possible though...

2. After watching how an increase in payroll was spent building the current pen, I'm don't trust that freed payroll would be used wisely. Certainly the mantra that Dunn's $13M could be better spent on pitching and defense isn't compelling in the face of recent history. Maybe some GMs could better spend it, but there is no reason to believe Krivsky is one of them. Besides, the last two free agent markets have been insane and there's not a lot of reason to believe the market will correct itself this off season. $13M just might not buy you a lot.

3. You know what you'll roughly get from Dunn for the money. Young and new or FA and new are risky in the sense you don't necessarily know what you'll get for your money.

Red Leader
06-13-2007, 12:55 PM
jojo, in another thread I said that I'd accept a trade of Dunn to the Yankees for switch hitting OF Melky Cabrera, and 2 of: Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. Those three pitchers are pretty far off as far as being able to contribute to the major league roster, but what difference in RS/RA would an OF of LF Hamilton, CF Cabrera, RF Griffey make over the current OF? Can you determine that? I know Cabrera is a better defender than Dunn, just not sure by how much, and I'm not sure how much of a drop he would be on offense, so I'm not sure what the net effect would be. Do you know, or could you show me how to calculate that? Much thanks in advance.

RedLegSuperStar
06-13-2007, 01:15 PM
Kind of odd or maybe just a coincidence that Joey Votto has been making some starts in LF. Votto is the 1st Baseman of the future but to find a spot for him this year while keeping Hatteberg and Conine at first would benifit Votto. Now that isn't saying that Hatteberg or Conine won't get dealt.

Red Leader
06-13-2007, 01:17 PM
Kind of odd or maybe just a coincidence that Joey Votto has been making some starts in LF. Votto is the 1st Baseman of the future but to find a spot for him this year while keeping Hatteberg and Conine at first would benifit Votto. Now that isn't saying that Hatteberg or Conine won't get dealt.

I believe on the minor league forum someone posted that Votto has been moved back to 1B and hasn't started in LF for a little while now...

Can't confirm that, but I believe that's what was said.

EDIT: Last night's Box Score shows Votto at 1B.

dabvu2498
06-13-2007, 01:22 PM
Kind of odd or maybe just a coincidence that Joey Votto has been making some starts in LF.

So has Keppinger.

2 days ago: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t416&t=g_box&gid=2007_06_11_rocaaa_louaaa_1

IslandRed
06-13-2007, 01:25 PM
I agree with half of that--accepting the best available offer is a bad idea, accepting a truly good offer (even one that doesn't include a RH outfield bat) would not necessarily be a bad thing. It all depends on what the return is. I'm less concerned with the specific role of the player(s) obtained in the return, and more concerned with the fact that they are legitimately *good*.

I agree with that. I think Kansas City shot itself in the foot a few years ago by being too specific about what it wanted for Carlos Beltran. If there's an offer on the table that's not a great match for our needs, but is clearly the best in terms of talent and can be used as a base for a trade to get what we need, take it. After all, the whole notion of re-tooling assumes we're not a trade or two away from the World Series. It won't get done in one swoop anyway.

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 01:31 PM
Votto is in no way shape or form a LF, hopefully that was just an experiment that is over

MartyFan
06-13-2007, 02:01 PM
I don't dislike Dunn in any way shape or form...but I do not think that he is the guy you build a team around without having some sort of other leadership on the team...can we get that sort of leader in a trade? Off season FA?

If we can keep him...but clearly he is not going to be Moses leading us to the Holy Land.

jojo
06-13-2007, 03:22 PM
jojo, in another thread I said that I'd accept a trade of Dunn to the Yankees for switch hitting OF Melky Cabrera, and 2 of: Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. Those three pitchers are pretty far off as far as being able to contribute to the major league roster, but what difference in RS/RA would an OF of LF Hamilton, CF Cabrera, RF Griffey make over the current OF? Can you determine that? I know Cabrera is a better defender than Dunn, just not sure by how much, and I'm not sure how much of a drop he would be on offense, so I'm not sure what the net effect would be. Do you know, or could you show me how to calculate that? Much thanks in advance.

Keep in mind this is very rough justice (lots of caveats) and a quick back of the napkin comparison. The first caveat is that as a Red, Cabrera would be a center fielder, Hamilton would be a right fielder and Griffey would play left. This is a coffey break special so be on the lookout for addition errors that I may have made..... :beerme:

Here's a comparison of what their bats might be worth. For this I'll rely on Pecota projections for '08 (second caveat):

Dunn: 500 Ab, .261/.390/.564; VORP (LF): 42; RC: 110; Salary (Reds pick up his option-caveat #3): $13M;

Cabrera: 540 AB; .291/.358/.441; VORP (CF): 23 (approx-caveat #4); RC: 85; Salary: $500K;

Basically Dunn's bat is projected to be roughly worth 20-30 RC more than Melky's. Keep in mind though that Melky is a center fielder and Dunn is a left fielder so when considering position played the difference between the value of the bats shrinks (VORP for Dunn is projected to be 42 versus Cabrera's 23) though Cabrera's was fudged a little since Pecota projected his VORP as a left fielder (as a left fielder his VORP was projected to be 16-the value of his bat increases as a centerfielder because that position is associated with less production).

From a purely offensive standpoint, the Reds would take a fairly significant hit by replacing Dunn with Cabrera (basically 2-3 wins).

Now consider the defensive side of things:

Hamilton is grading out as a below average center fielder so far (UZR=-6) so in center he might end up being a -5 to -10 defender. I'd argue he'd probably be a neutral defender in right (I know some are screaming at me right now).

Griffey is looking to be a -5 to -10 defender in right. He probably would be a similar defender in left.

Dunn is looking to again be a -10 to -15 defender in left if UZR hold for the season.

Cabrera however, is looking like a plus defender in center falling somewhere in the second tier (+5 to +10) for the season.

So by taking the conservative estimates (low for Cabrera and best for the others), replacing Dunn with Jr in left saves the Reds 5 runs. Replacing Jr in right with Hamilton saves the Reds 5 runs and replacing Hamilton in center with Cabrera saves the Reds 10 runs. So defensively the new alignment would make the Reds about 20 runs better.

Summary: So the back of the napkin scribble suggests by trading Dunn for Cabrera, assuming both perform to their 50th percentile Pecota projections in '08, the Reds would lose 20 to 30 runs of offense but gain 20 runs of defense. So conceivably, the reds would either break even or be down 10 runs while having roughly $12.5M to spend elsewhere.

I kind of doubt either the Reds or the Yanks would do that trade. However, for the Reds the napkin scribble suggests it would be a no brainer in the short term. Keep in mind though, there's alot of caveats meaning this future is not a certainty. Also, Cabrera is missing his '07 Pecota projections thus far pretty badly and it's not certain he'd meet them in the future. That being said, Dunn is also missing his '07 projections.

BRM
06-13-2007, 03:32 PM
Fay weighs in on the Dunn trade talks.



With all the debate about trades, one thing to remember is things are entirely different in the free agent era. If the Reds trade Adam Dunn for some 22-year-old pitcher with a great arm and little major league service time, they essentially freeing up $13 million of payroll for 2008. Money they can spend on free agents.

That wasn't the case when Frank Robinson was traded. You basically were getting players for life then. And the difference between Robinson's salary and Pappas' wasn't enough to buy free agents -- if free agents had been available.

Last year's trade with the Washington Nationals was a case of that. The Reds got two players not eligible for arbitration, plus a free agent to be in Royce Clayton, for two players arb-eligible. So when Clayton didn't work out -- spectacularly so, I might add -- the Reds simply took some of the money they would have paid Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez and signed Alex Gonzalez. (By the way, that trade would look better from the Reds' standpoint, if they hadn't let Brendan Harris go).

But back to the point: If the Reds trade Dunn, you've got to look at not only what they get but at what they do with the money they would have paid him. Now, getting a good player for him would help, but it's not the only way to measure the trade.

Red Leader
06-13-2007, 03:42 PM
Summary: So the back of the napkin scribble suggests by trading Dunn for Cabrera, assuming both perform to their 50th percentile Pecota projections in '08, the Reds would lose 20 to 30 runs of offense but gain 20 runs of defense. So conceivably, the reds would either break even or be down 10 runs while having roughly $12.5M to spend elsewhere.

I kind of doubt either the Reds or the Yanks would do that trade. However, for the Reds the napkin scribble suggests it would be a no brainer in the short term. Keep in mind though, there's alot of caveats meaning this future is not a certainty. Also, Cabrera is missing his '07 Pecota projections thus far pretty badly and it's not certain he'd meet them in the future. That being said, Dunn is also missing his '07 projections.

jojo - I realize in some spots you have to make estimates, and they are just that, estimates. Trades are gambles of expectations for the most part. I learned a lot in that post and I appreciate your taking the time to work through it. Again, thanks for the response and taking the time to explain to me how you got to your conclusion.

BRM
06-13-2007, 03:42 PM
More trade talk from mlbtraderumors.com.



Scouting the Reds

The chatter regarding Reds' left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it's only June 13th. It's looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html), as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.

Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger (http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1181713646206180.xml&coll=1&thispage=2) contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."

One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070613/SPT04/706130405/1071/SPT) about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he'd have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=2902689&type=blogEntry) that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.

The Dayton Daily News (http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/06/12/ddn061307dunn.html) has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.

Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for '08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for '08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.

M2
06-13-2007, 03:45 PM
Cabrera looks like a 4th OF type to me, very Endy Chavez. That would make him roughly a 60-65 RC player for the next few years if you were to play him every day, which, of course, you wouldn't do for too long if that was his level of production.

BRM
06-13-2007, 03:48 PM
Cabrera looks like a 4th OF type to me, very Endy Chavez. That would make him roughly a 60-65 RC player for the next few years if you were to play him every day, which, of course, you wouldn't do for too long if that was his level of production.

You are underestimating the wisdom of Reds management, my friend.

Jaycint
06-13-2007, 03:55 PM
More trade talk from mlbtraderumors.com.

Not sure how well we match up with the Astros on a Dunn deal. They don't have anywhere to play him and from what I can tell they don't have much in their system I'd want back. Course maybe the Astros scout was looking at someone else...

jojo
06-13-2007, 03:58 PM
Cabrera looks like a 4th OF type to me, very Endy Chavez. That would make him roughly a 60-65 RC player for the next few years if you were to play him every day, which, of course, you wouldn't do for too long if that was his level of production.

I'm not that enamoured with him either but I went with Pecota projections to eliminate my bias.

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 04:39 PM
The Astros are buried the same as we are, why trade any value for Dunn when they can just go get him when he's a FA?

Strikes Out Looking
06-13-2007, 06:53 PM
mlbtraderumors has a lot of writers talking about teams moving Dunn to 1b--IIRC, he didn't want to play first base and wasn't persuaded by the Reds in the Spring of '06 to do it--which is one of the reasons they brought in Hatteburg. Why would he agree to move to 1b for another team (and I say agree because I'm assuming another team will want to use a 48 hour window and sign him long term to a deal if they trade for him).

Ltlabner
06-13-2007, 06:58 PM
It's probably already been covered or at least touched on. But does trading Dunn for even the best return possible improve the team and put in on the road to glory?

Trade Dunn, Jr, Hatte, Loshe, Conine, Weathers, and Javy for the best return possible (call it a mini-fire sale), IF DONE CORRECTLY, ought to infuse the team with enough tallent to put it back on track (when combined with the young tallent we have, and what is comming along).

But I don't think just trading Dunn (or Jr. for that matter) really acomplishes much for the long term. Sorta like putting your toe in the water with the "rebuild while competing" failed model.

RedsManRick
06-13-2007, 07:02 PM
Well, if Dunn's $13M is used on a Carlos Lee like bat, then you add in the talent gained from the deal, you have a net increase in production. You definitely have to consider the way the money is going to be used.

jojo
06-13-2007, 07:25 PM
Well, if Dunn's $13M is used on a Carlos Lee like bat, then you add in the talent gained from the deal, you have a net increase in production. You definitely have to consider the way the money is going to be used.

That's the juggling act....the talent returned plus the talent $13M buys adds up to more than just keeping Dunn.

The rubs are that the talent returned probably isn't going to be earth shattering due to contractual issues and the talent that $13M buys probably isn't going to be as much as one would hope due to market forces and some likely bad decisions by the FO.

This is going to be interesting. I'm still not ready to assume Dunn will be traded. I guess I'm thinking that while there are a ton of ways that Dunn's production could be replaced there are a ton of ways that this can get screwed up too...

M2
06-13-2007, 07:25 PM
It's probably already been covered or at least touched on. But does trading Dunn for even the best return possible improve the team and put in on the road to glory?

Trade Dunn, Jr, Hatte, Loshe, Conine, Weathers, and Javy for the best return possible (call it a mini-fire sale), IF DONE CORRECTLY, ought to infuse the team with enough tallent to put it back on track (when combined with the young tallent we have, and what is comming along).

But I don't think just trading Dunn (or Jr. for that matter) really acomplishes much for the long term. Sorta like putting your toe in the water with the "rebuild while competing" failed model.

You're right that if all the team is going to do is deal Dunn, then it's a pointless gesture. A Dunn trade needs to be part of a larger rebuilding plan.

RMR, if you replaced Dunn with Carlos Lee you'd have the same basic production at the plate (maybe less because Dunn can go .900+ in OPS and Lee can't) and, believe it or not, you might actually make your defense worse. If that was your plan, I'd say cut the rigamarole and just keep Dunn.

Aronchis
06-13-2007, 07:28 PM
Adam Dunn could go either way, or another way. That is why it is fun to speculate;)

RedsManRick
06-13-2007, 07:41 PM
You're right that if all the team is going to do is deal Dunn, then it's a pointless gesture. A Dunn trade needs to be part of a larger rebuilding plan.

RMR, if you replaced Dunn with Carlos Lee you'd have the same basic production at the plate (maybe less because Dunn can go .900+ in OPS and Lee can't) and, believe it or not, you might actually make your defense worse. If that was your plan, I'd say cut the rigamarole and just keep Dunn.

So you'd rather have Dunn than Carlos Lee and solid prospect (or better?). My point isn't Carlos Lee specifically. It's that it's conceivable that Dunn's trade return plus $13M in production signed in FA is better than just Dunn.

pedro
06-13-2007, 07:44 PM
So you'd rather have Dunn than Carlos Lee and solid prospect (or better?). My point isn't Carlos Lee specifically. It's that it's conceivable that Dunn's trade return plus $13M in production signed in FA is better than just Dunn.

The problem is how you are going to acquire a "Carlos Lee" type bat. Unless of course the Reds trade Dunn and then attempt to resign him because IIRC there really isn't anyone else even close that's going to be a FA this year.

jojo
06-13-2007, 08:14 PM
This is just food for thought and absolute rosterbation (so feel free to use the barf emoticon):

Here's something that might be within the parameters of a workable deal for the Reds. Trade Dunn to Texas (probably a decent chance of them working something out long term because he'd be pretty close to home and he would absolutely mash as a pull hitting lefty in their park and could either be their LFer or DH after the Sosa experiment runs it's course) for Frank Catalanotto (career: .294/.359/.451; a professional hitter but having a tough first year in Texas; has good speed and clubhouse presence and his roughly league average defense in left would be an upgrade over Dunn and he's reasonably locked up until 2010), and Edinson Volquez (RHP with a plus fastball and awesome changeup. He's struggled in his brief stints in the majors but would be an instant infusion of young power stuff in the Reds pen with the potential to refine his curve and enter the rotation though command issues make him a risk but also probably make him available).

I'd like to have a Randy Winn type guy in left but then again I'm probably showing my Seattle bias.

edabbs44
06-13-2007, 08:23 PM
This is just food for thought and absolute rosterbation (so feel free to use the barf emoticon):

Here's something that might be within the parameters of a workable deal for the Reds. Trade Dunn to Texas (probably a decent chance of them working something out long term because he'd be pretty close to home and he would absolutely mash as a pull hitting lefty in their park and could either be their LFer or DH after the Sosa experiment runs it's course) for Frank Catalanotto (career: .294/.359/.451; a professional hitter but having a tough first year in Texas; has good speed and clubhouse presence and his roughly league average defense in left would be an upgrade over Dunn and he's reasonably locked up until 2010), and Edinson Volquez (RHP with a plus fastball and awesome changeup. He's struggled in his brief stints in the majors but would be an instant infusion of young power stuff in the Reds pen with the potential to refine his curve and enter the rotation though command issues make him a risk but also probably make him available).

I'd like to have a Randy Winn type guy in left but then again I'm probably showing my Seattle bias.

I would want more than just that. CatMan doesn't do much for me.

M2
06-13-2007, 08:42 PM
So you'd rather have Dunn than Carlos Lee and solid prospect (or better?). My point isn't Carlos Lee specifically. It's that it's conceivable that Dunn's trade return plus $13M in production signed in FA is better than just Dunn.

Well, Lee makes close to $19M a year, which, when you think about, makes Dunn look like a bargain.

But I disagree with the premise here. The Reds aren't going to be signing superstar free agents no matter how much salary they clear. Free agency isn't a very good team building avenue to begin with and the Reds need to not get caught in the trap of viewing it as a major talent delivery mechanism. I'm not opposed to opportunity buys (e.g. Alex Gonzalez, though I'm not wild about the length of his deal), but planning to build through free agency, taking the position that you've got to buy a free agent at a given spot over the winter, leads to Eric Milton types of signings.

The way the Reds most effectively can bring in external talent is the way they found Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton. They're going to need to identify breakout candidates.

Money for the Reds will mean they can keep their younger, better players as they move up the salary scale (Brandon Phillips for instance). If the franchise is willing to trade some prospects at some point then available cash will allow the Reds to trade for mid range (in terms of cost) players who've perhaps gotten too expensive for their struggling, penurious clubs.

Yet I think it's unrealistic to expect PayFlex to reap immediate rewards. IMO the Reds are going to need to take a more systematic long-term approach, picking the right moments to spend rather than blowing a wad just because they've got it.

M2
06-13-2007, 08:54 PM
This is just food for thought and absolute rosterbation (so feel free to use the barf emoticon):

Here's something that might be within the parameters of a workable deal for the Reds. Trade Dunn to Texas (probably a decent chance of them working something out long term because he'd be pretty close to home and he would absolutely mash as a pull hitting lefty in their park and could either be their LFer or DH after the Sosa experiment runs it's course) for Frank Catalanotto (career: .294/.359/.451; a professional hitter but having a tough first year in Texas; has good speed and clubhouse presence and his roughly league average defense in left would be an upgrade over Dunn and he's reasonably locked up until 2010), and Edinson Volquez (RHP with a plus fastball and awesome changeup. He's struggled in his brief stints in the majors but would be an instant infusion of young power stuff in the Reds pen with the potential to refine his curve and enter the rotation though command issues make him a risk but also probably make him available).

I'd like to have a Randy Winn type guy in left but then again I'm probably showing my Seattle bias.

Perhaps Volquez and Taylor Teagarden. Frankie Cats is on the downhill portion of his career. I wouldn't be opposed to picking him up as a cheap bench player, but I wouldn't make him part the main return for a guy like Dunn.

Spitball
06-13-2007, 08:54 PM
Outside of the contract issues, I can see a possible road block in the dealing of Adam Dunn. Krivsky has to make a trade that has obvious merit that can clearly be sold to the Cincinnati fans and media. After the reaction to the Kearns and Lopez deal, he can't afford to make another unpopular trade.

Chip R
06-13-2007, 09:12 PM
mlbtraderumors has a lot of writers talking about teams moving Dunn to 1b--IIRC, he didn't want to play first base and wasn't persuaded by the Reds in the Spring of '06 to do it--which is one of the reasons they brought in Hatteburg. Why would he agree to move to 1b for another team (and I say agree because I'm assuming another team will want to use a 48 hour window and sign him long term to a deal if they trade for him).


Perhaps another team can be more persuasive. Perhaps someopne like the Dodgers can sell Dunn on playing 1st if it means a better chance at a ring.

Just because a team only a small window to talk about an extention with Dunn doesn't mean that they can't renegotiate with him after they trade for him.

I know most people here are smart enough to realize that just because the Reds will have extra money to spend on a free agent, doesn't mean they will be able to sign a free agent worth that money. Let's say for example - and I know he's under contract - that Roy Oswalt is a free agent at the end of the season. I don't think anyone would argue he's worth however much you'd pay Dunn. But other teams would be after him too. Even if the Reds wanted him doesn't mean they could get him. So they have to settle for something that isn't worth what Dunn would make. So you are paying the Jeff Suppans and the Ted Lillys and the Kyle Lohses of the world that kind of money to justify letting Dunn go. Now I'm not saying the Reds can't sign a top notch free agent pitcher but it's not as easy as saying, "Hey, we have $X million to spend so we are going to sign Roy Oswalt for sure."

mth123
06-13-2007, 09:49 PM
Well, Lee makes close to $19M a year, which, when you think about, makes Dunn look like a bargain.

This is the point people keep overlooking. Unless you get a young offensive prospect to replace Dunn in the deal, the only way to keep the offense whole in Dunn's absence would be to sign a replacement who will likely cost even more. Where's your payflex now? Even a move for said prospect is no sure thing.


BTW, any attempt to replace Dunn in the line-up with Melky Cabrera, Frank Catalonotto, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel or any slugging challenged player to be our "lead-off" man is going to put this offense in a world of hurt IMO. Quit worrying about a "true lead-off hitter." Get me some guys who can mash and worry about how to line them up later.

jojo
06-13-2007, 10:16 PM
This is the point people keep overlooking. Unless you get a young offensive prospect to replace Dunn in the deal, the only way to keep the offense whole in Dunn's absence would be to sign a replacement who will likely cost even more. Where's your payflex now? Even a move for said prospect is no sure thing.


BTW, any attempt to replace Dunn in the line-up with Melky Cabrera, Frank Catalonotto, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel or any slugging challenged player to be our "lead-off" man is going to put this offense in a world of hurt IMO. Quit worrying about a "true lead-off hitter." Get me some guys who can mash and worry about how to line them up later.

I'd bat Catalanotta 2nd or 6th. There's no allusions that he's a masher or a special offensive player. He is a consistent contact hitter who can produce about 75 RC a year. That leaves about 15 to make up somewhere else (ignoring that his defense conservatively makes up another 5 versus Dunn).

I'm not suggesting Catalanotto is a perfect fix or a long term answer but he could buy the Reds a season and a half while waiting for Bruce and Stubbs. I basically used him as both an example of what's likely a realistic return and how Dunn's production could be replaced-most likely in increments.

IslandRed
06-13-2007, 10:20 PM
It all comes back to the question: If we're trading Dunn and Griffey to re-tool, we're re-tooling for when, exactly? That would go a long way towards determining the calculus of replacing Dunn. Do we look for a young slugger or a veteran slugger? Maybe a stopgap because we're expecting to have Hamilton and Bruce in the corners by 2009, in which case it's a center fielder we need to find?

One of the major related questions that needs to be answered this year -- and it ought to be with Freel on the shelf for awhile, if not longer -- is whether Josh Hamilton is the answer in center field defensively. With Bruce coming fast (challenge thy hitters), it's a crucial navigation point.

jojo
06-13-2007, 10:32 PM
It all comes back to the question: If we're trading Dunn and Griffey to re-tool, we're re-tooling for when, exactly? That would go a long way towards determining the calculus of replacing Dunn. Do we look for a young slugger or a veteran slugger? Maybe a stopgap because we're expecting to have Hamilton and Bruce in the corners by 2009, in which case it's a center fielder we need to find?

One of the major related questions that needs to be answered this year -- and it ought to be with Freel on the shelf for awhile, if not longer -- is whether Josh Hamilton is the answer in center field defensively. With Bruce coming fast (challenge thy hitters), it's a crucial navigation point.

My early view of Hamilton is that he's Kearns version 2.0. Basically he's a rightfielder with a higher ceiling bat (how much better is still a question) but he's not as good defensively overall although he probably has a better arm (i'd take range over the difference between their arms).

mth123
06-13-2007, 10:33 PM
I'd bat Catalanotta 2nd or 6th. There's no allusions that he's a masher or a special offensive player. He is a consistent contact hitter who can produce about 75 RC a year. That leaves about 15 to make up somewhere else (ignoring that his defense conservatively makes up another 5 versus Dunn).

I'm not suggesting Catalanotto is a perfect fix or a long term answer but he could buy the Reds a season and a half while waiting for Bruce and Stubbs. I basically used him as both an example of what's likely a realistic return and how Dunn's production could be replaced-most likely in increments.

I wasn't specifically responding to your post as much as making the general statement that any trade of Dunn requires a player who can slug near .500 at a minimum or this offense is going to the dumper IMO.

As for Cat specifically, any trade of Dunn that doesn't bring major league ready talent with upside and low salary is not a deal to make. I'd simply pass and take the draft picks or sign Dunn. Volquez is too much of a question mark to justify that. A more highly rated prospect would get me to bite.

My biggest fear is that WK thinks he can save the season by trading Dunn for a mediocre replacement the likes of Cat coupled with a Bill Bray version 2.0.

I originally wanted a bat and and an arm, but at this point, I'd probably be happy with Dunn straight up for Kemp. I'd be happy if for no other reason than to settle the line-up and to ensure that any money saved by moving Dunn is invested in the pitching staff. If the savings needs to be invested to simply replace Dunn, then I just keep Dunn. I'd be less pleased with Dunn for a young pitcher. This staff needs some certainty in the number 2 spot (with Arroyo dropping down to number 3) not more question marks with promise. We have Bailey, Belisle and to a lesser degree Fisher, Cueto, Lecure, Watson et al to serve as the question marks with promise for the bottom of the rotation.

KoryMac5
06-13-2007, 11:16 PM
In Rosenthal's latest article he mentions that Towers went to personally see third base prospect Chase Headley who is tearing it up in AA San Antonio. He might be looking at putting some pieces together for Dunn.

Red Heeler
06-14-2007, 09:22 AM
In Rosenthal's latest article he mentions that Towers went to personally see third base prospect Chase Headley who is tearing it up in AA San Antonio. He might be looking at putting some pieces together for Dunn.

The Padres look like a better match for the Reds than the Dodgers. Most of the interesting guys the Dodgers have they will probably need this year.

Dunn plus sweetener to the Pads for Headley, Royce Ring, and Wade Leblanc or Joshua Geer would be a deal to put the Reds back on the right road.

Strikes Out Looking
06-14-2007, 12:42 PM
Having both the Dodgers and Pads interested in Dunn should be a very positive development as neither team wants the other to gain in advantage for this year (and possibly down the road). Hopefully, WK can take advantage of this and get a little more than if only one of the NL West teams were interested.

Dan
06-14-2007, 12:48 PM
Why does any Dunn trade thread involve the name Frank Catalanotto? Frank freakin' Catalanotto? Give me a break!

I like the early offer of Dunn to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp and John Braxton.

jojo
06-14-2007, 12:53 PM
I like the early offer of Dunn to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp and John Braxton.

Well of course but it's not likely the dodgers would do that. And that's the point. There's what we'd all wish and there's what could actually get done.

RedsManRick
06-14-2007, 02:13 PM
Headley is DESTROYING AA at the moment to the tune of .357/.433/.648 including 31 BB and 53 SO in 227 AB. He's also a switch hitter, which is obviously nice. I haven't seen a scouting report, but that's some really nice power and they've got him blocked with Kouz at the major league level.

Of course, with EE and Votto, where would he play here? Could he move to LF? This is the type of bat we need to get in a Dunn deal.

jojo
06-14-2007, 02:15 PM
Headley is DESTROYING AA at the moment to the tune of .357/.433/.648 including 31 BB and 53 SO in 227 AB. He's also a switch hitter, which is obviously nice. I haven't seen a scouting report, but that's some really nice power and they've got him blocked with Kouz at the major league level.

Of course, with EE and Votto, where would he play here? Could he move to LF? This is the type of bat we need to get in a Dunn deal.

It's possible that they'd sooner trade Kouz.....

BRM
06-14-2007, 02:16 PM
Headley is pretty balanced too. 1.109 OPS vs righties, 1.000 OPS vs lefties.

IslandRed
06-14-2007, 04:09 PM
Headley is DESTROYING AA at the moment to the tune of .357/.433/.648 including 31 BB and 53 SO in 227 AB. He's also a switch hitter, which is obviously nice. I haven't seen a scouting report, but that's some really nice power and they've got him blocked with Kouz at the major league level.

Of course, with EE and Votto, where would he play here? Could he move to LF? This is the type of bat we need to get in a Dunn deal.

I don't know anything about Headley's defense. Is it supposed to be good or just so-so?

Just as I posted elsewhere that the Reds need to spend this year figuring out if Josh Hamilton can be inked into center field, I'd also want them to make a fish-or-cut-bait decision on Encarnacion's defense by year-end. Maybe EE's the one that moves out to make room for Headley, if this hypothetical deal was done.

membengal
06-14-2007, 05:09 PM
Does Rosenthal say whether Narron is available in a trade? Because I think he could be had for pretty cheap...

jojo
06-14-2007, 07:45 PM
Does Rosenthal say whether Narron is available in a trade? Because I think he could be had for pretty cheap...

Lou Piniella was essentially traded by Seattle to Tampa Bay for Randy Winn...

membengal
06-14-2007, 07:54 PM
Yes, yes he was.

I have not forgotten that.

Strikes Out Looking
06-14-2007, 09:46 PM
Lou Piniella was essentially traded by Seattle to Tampa Bay for Randy Winn...

How about Narron and one Reds reliever to the Cubs for Lou and Matt Murton.

edabbs44
06-14-2007, 09:50 PM
Why does any Dunn trade thread involve the name Frank Catalanotto? Frank freakin' Catalanotto? Give me a break!

I like the early offer of Dunn to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp and John Braxton.

If they made that trade, I am sure a lot of people would be singing "Unbreak My Heart" to Wayne. :D

NJReds
06-15-2007, 11:03 AM
From today's LA Times (link (http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angrep15jun15,1,5018978.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-mlb-angels&ctrack=1&cset=true) - scroll to bottom):


The Angels had preliminary discussions with Cincinnati about acquiring Dunn, according to a baseball source, but those talks quickly ended when the Reds requested a proven major league starting pitcher, a major league infielder — preferably a second baseman — and a top prospect.

Those demands were considered too hefty for a player whose $13-million option for 2008 would be voided if he's traded, meaning he could become a free agent after this season. The Angels probably wouldn't even trade second baseman Howie Kendrick for Dunn straight up, according to the source.

dabvu2498
06-15-2007, 11:10 AM
A second baseman? Don't we already have one? And a pretty good one at that? Sounds kinda bogus to me.

M2
06-15-2007, 11:32 AM
A second baseman? Don't we already have one? And a pretty good one at that? Sounds kinda bogus to me.

Yeah, I think there's likely a whole lot of hyperbole there. I could see the Reds asking for Ervin Santana because he's struggling a bit, possibly making him expendable.

lollipopcurve
06-15-2007, 11:54 AM
It seems the Reds should take the best pitching they could get, but I would be very tempted to take Kendrick straight up and see if he can play LF. I really like him as a young RH bat.

edabbs44
06-15-2007, 11:58 AM
The Angels had preliminary discussions with Cincinnati about acquiring Dunn, according to a baseball source, but those talks quickly ended when the Reds requested a proven major league starting pitcher, a major league infielder — preferably a second baseman — and a top prospect.

Translation: Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood.

Wayne's hitting that pipe again.

Benihana
06-15-2007, 12:18 PM
At least you gotta like the fact that he's not gonna give Dunn away for free. While this asking price is almost laughable, I'd rather him ask too much than too little. I'd shoot for Kendrick and Adenhart. Then I'd try to sell high, and trade Alex Gonzalez to a team looking for a SS.

I'd play Kendrick in LF until you could complete a trade for Gonzalez. If that happens, move Kendrick back to 2B and Phillips over to SS. Adenhart could probably fill the #4 spot in the rotation beginning in 2008.

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Adenhart
Belisle

sounds pretty good to me. Throw in Stubbs if that's what it takes to get a deal done. I'd shy away from Santana, the eagerness they have shown in trying to include him in a deal scares me. Maybe he is injured?

IslandRed
06-15-2007, 12:20 PM
I've seen that kind of posturing article many times -- exaggerate the asking price to make the other guy look unreasonable, then float what you're willing to pay as if he'd be the luckiest man on earth to get it. It's particularly amusing coming from the Angels, who are the trading equivalent of the guy who never quite reaches for the dinner check fast enough.

Business as usual.

KoryMac5
06-15-2007, 12:23 PM
In Rosenthal's latest article he mentions that Towers went to personally see third base prospect Chase Headley who is tearing it up in AA San Antonio. He might be looking at putting some pieces together for Dunn.

More on Headley from MLBTradeRumors:

Padres Showcasing Headley?
The Padres called up Double A third baseman Chase Headley today, and he'll start against the Cubs. There are many reasons for the cup of coffee: he's raking, Kevin Kouzmanoff is hurting, and Bud Black doesn't like Russell Branyan.

I think there may be one additional reason Headley is getting a look: he's being showcased for a trade. That's pure speculation on my part, but as far as I can tell Headley is the Padres' best expendable trading chip. He's a solid third baseman and he's in the midst of a power breakout this year. Of course, the Padres could keep both players and move Kouzmanoff to left field one day.

If the Padres are to get involved for a big-name slugger like Jermaine Dye or Adam Dunn, Headley's name will come up. The White Sox and Reds don't actually need a third baseman, but players can be moved around.

jojo
06-15-2007, 12:52 PM
[QUOTE]The Angels had preliminary discussions with Cincinnati about acquiring Dunn, according to a baseball source, but those talks quickly ended when the Reds requested a proven major league starting pitcher, a major league infielder preferably a second baseman and a top prospect./QUOTE]

Translation: Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood.

Wayne's hitting that pipe again.

Upon hearing that GMs across the nation close their rolodexes...

pedro
06-15-2007, 12:55 PM
"Shy sleeps alone"

Wayne should be asking for the moon right now IMO.