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View Full Version : OK, give me your reasons for supporting Narron and Krivsky



WVRedsFan
06-10-2007, 01:49 AM
Being a manager is a hard job, I'll admit and it certainly has its ups and downs. The same could be said for being a GM. I imagine both Jerry Narron and Wayne Krivsky could tell us more than we want to know about either. The thing that gets me is that, for some reason, there is some support for both men on this board. I want to know your perspective for my own mental health.

I'll be the first to admit that I was early and strong in wanting Jack McKeon gone. I was wrong, but only after seeing what was to come later. McKeon is far and away better than what we've had since. Maybe it was the memory of Lou, I don't know. I didn't want Oester because I felt he couldn't handle the job (his maturity was in question) and we got Bob Boone (who shall remain nameless). Boone was a disaster and he turned into Miley who was worse or at least as bad. Upon Miley's dismissal, we got Narron because he was there. That's all. The owner of a 284-328 record as a manager (150-166 as a Red), he's shown he's prone to the bad decision, especially with pitching and batting orders. The argument that a manager is only as good as his players is valid, but this is a team that looks no worse than 15 other MLB teams and still we lose and lose and lose. Many of those losses can be attributed to Narron. Some day I'll have the time to research this more. Someday when he's probably gone and it won't matter to anyone.

The same goes for Wayne Krivsky. There is so much support for him. I've looked at his moves as GM for the Reds and I can't see how anyone can support him. Early on, he acquired Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips for Willie Mo Pena and a player I can't remember if there was one. Arroyo was a less than average player for the Pirates and the Red Sox in his time there and Phillips was a prospect for the Indians who didn't pan out. Both has large seasons for the Reds last year, but Arroyo has lost some of his luster because of overwork, if you listen to Reds fans. He started with a horrible bullpen (some of which went elsewhere to be somewhat successful--Todd Jones comes to mind) and has not been able to improve it. His big step was to trade a poor denfensive shortstop, a relief pitcher who once was the fans' darling, and a promising outfielder for two arms and two players. The first arm was injured when traded for (do to lack of knowledge or being hoodwinked by JimBo) and the other, a youngster who everyone has high hopes for, but has been on the DL all year, is still a relief pitcher who has not done one thing for the franchise.

In the meantime, Krivsky has brought in some of the worst pitchers in the major leagues to pitch for the Reds. A lot of them had Minnesota ties (an old trick by new insurance agents--sell your family and friends, but then what) like Everyday Eddie and Kyle Loshe. Most forget Joe Mays and others. Not good. He signed Juan Castro, who simply is not more than fodder and extended the contracts of Narron, Cormier (who is out of baseball while we pay him), and Coffey (still in Louisville). To add to the insult, he signs Stanton, who was a closer for SF who was Danny Graves-like last year and trades for Kirk Saarloos, a pitcher who Oakland no longer wanted. The esult has been disaster.

All I want to know from you is why to continue to think that these two men should continue in their positions. If you look across MLB, no franchise has been guilty of more bad moves than the Cincinnati Reds over the past 15 months that have gone sour. Moves that might help the team, I mean. What is it about them that makes you think things will get better? What have they done to give you confidence? I'm struggling here. I need to know.

Thank you for your consideration.

Mario-Rijo
06-10-2007, 06:02 AM
Ok where do I start. 1st let me say I agree with you on some of your points. These would be the ones that I don't/didn't.

I wanted to keep McKeon at the time, because he got the best out of the players he was given. Greg Vaughan was given lots of credit for keeping guys in line but rest assured McKeon likely had something to do with it as well. As evidenced by results he got both before & after he was Red.

Boone was a buffoon, I saw nothing of value in him.

Miley was a guy who was undone by a lack of talent to some extent and by one fatal flaw he had. He didn't demand respect from his players and the Veterans on those teams took complete advantage and before long so did the rest of the team. As far as X's and O's go he wasn't all that bad and when he took over that putrid team after the firesale his undertalented and non-experienced unit played pretty well for their shortcomings. His record that '03 season? 22-35 for a WP% of .386 and that's w/o Griffey, Larkin, Harang (as we know him now) or Arroyo. That was with such stars as Smitherman, Stenson, Olmedo and Paul Wilson as our ace. What's this current crop of guys doing, how about a big 'ole 24-39 or a WP% of .381! Talk about underachieving.

Jerry Narron needs to go, I do not disagree at all here! The reasons for it have been discussed ad nauseam so I'll make this short. He is Pedro Cerrano the Buddhist as described by his Kamikaze teammate. NO MARBLES!! And that goes for either region.

However IMO Krivsky has done a better than average job of acquiring and keeping talent which is a GM's only real job in a perfect world. He has upgraded the talent on this team and organization in almost every way, shape or form. And just because he hasn't done it to our liking yet we crucify him after only a little over a year on the job. Let's just take a peek at what he has done.

Acquired:
A more Productive 1st base platoon than our previous 1st bagger.
A more Productive 2nd baseman than our previous one.
A just as productive (offensively speaking) SS and a far better defensive one.
Done what he has had to do to get better production at 3rd both on offense and defense.
Catcher to this point is about a wash.
Re-signed a fan favorite in LF (who may not even deserve it)
Is getting the best out of a 37 yr old, by moving him to RF so his defense doesn't hurt as much and he is the best offensive player he has been since 2000.
A more far productive CF defensively with loads of offensive potential.

Improved the starting pitching by leaps and bounds.
And as bad as they have been we all know this is the best BP on paper we have had since thee Sullivan heydays. 5/2/05 massacre anyone? That BP had Danny Graves as it's closer for a short period of time, Uggh.

Things he could be faulted for:
Dealing Kearns and Lopez
Dealing Cody Ross
Dealing Brendan Harris
Dealing Zach Ward

I'd say what we have now is a much better team, even though they aren't playing like it.

GAC
06-10-2007, 06:30 AM
I've had my coffee this morning, so I'll take a shot. ;)


Being a manager is a hard job, I'll admit and it certainly has its ups and downs. The same could be said for being a GM. I imagine both Jerry Narron and Wayne Krivsky could tell us more than we want to know about either. The thing that gets me is that, for some reason, there is some support for both men on this board. I want to know your perspective for my own mental health.

When it comes to Narron - they could fire him tommorrow and I wouldn't be upset. And if the Reds continue on the present course he will be IMHO. The "successes" (for lack of a better word) of the '06 season is why Narron is here in '07, and was given the chance. I saw no problem with that. But the more I've seen of him - his micro-managing style with the lineup, batting order, and especially the hap-hazard way he handles pitchers - I am not too pleased.

He's Bob Boone with plastic surgery.



The same goes for Wayne Krivsky. There is so much support for him.

First off, and I've stated this since this new ownership took over.... they inherited a mess - some bad guaranteed contracts, as well as a farm system that is still so-so, and very little (spotty) talent on this team. There is no quick fix for this team. I'm sorry that disappoints some. But the only reason we came close last year was because it's a terrible division.

How much time should any new ownership/GM be allowed to implement their plan? Being on the job approximately 15 months is fair? How many drafts has he been involved in?


I've looked at his moves as GM for the Reds and I can't see how anyone can support him. Early on, he acquired Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips for Willie Mo Pena and a player I can't remember if there was one. Arroyo was a less than average player for the Pirates and the Red Sox in his time there and Phillips was a prospect for the Indians who didn't pan out. Both has large seasons for the Reds last year, but Arroyo has lost some of his luster because of overwork, if you listen to Reds fans. He started with a horrible bullpen (some of which went elsewhere to be somewhat successful--Todd Jones comes to mind) and has not been able to improve it. His big step was to trade a poor denfensive shortstop, a relief pitcher who once was the fans' darling, and a promising outfielder for two arms and two players. The first arm was injured when traded for (do to lack of knowledge or being hoodwinked by JimBo) and the other, a youngster who everyone has high hopes for, but has been on the DL all year, is still a relief pitcher who has not done one thing for the franchise.

No one denies that Krivsky hasn't made both some good moves and some questionable /bad moves. The guy has taken alot of gambles that is for sure. Some have panned out, some haven't, and some are probably "wait and see". When one looks at the volume of the moves he has made, there is bound to be some that won't pan out. He's taken some risks, and I don't mind that as long as they aren't risks that will hamper a team for the longterm. He hasn't. But I agree he has taken some gambles that haven't paid off.

But where has he really committed the money/contracts?....

He resigned Dunn, Harang, and extended Arroyo (4.3 mil/yr), Lohse (4.2 mil/yr), Gonzo (16 Mil/3 yrs), (Weathers 4.5 mil/2yrs), Conine (2 Mil/1 yr), extended Hatteberg for 1 yr (1.6 Mil), Stanton (5 Mil/2yrs).

But the rest of the list of players he has signed involved no huge commitments of money/guaranteed contracts (the Moellers, Castros, etc). Now I won't argue with you that they haven't performed or added anything to this team; but my point is they were signed as utility "stopgap" players (backups), who could be dumped in a second, and who are not counted on as far as the future success of this team is not on their shoulders.


In the meantime, Krivsky has brought in some of the worst pitchers in the major leagues to pitch for the Reds.

Now that is not simply true. No one denies that he didn't take some risks (flyers) on pitchers; but they weren't the worst. And we all know that the pitching market has been thinner than Nicole Ritchie. Over this past winter, teams were out there scrambling and signing marginal pitchers to some ridiculous guaranteed contracts. I'm glad the Reds didn't take that route.


like Everyday Eddie and Kyle Loshe.

Eddie appeared in 15 games last year, 14 IPs, and a 1.29 ERA. Prior to that his career numbers speak for themselves. The Reds re-signed him for $500,000. Money wasted?

Kyle Lohse is 28 yrs old. When he signed with the Reds he had a overall record of 51-57, with and ERA of 5. The Reds signed him for one year @ 4 Mil. Again - not a bad risk.

When it comes to starting pitching...who should the Reds have seriously went after this past off-season? Who "fell through our grasp" or we missed the boat on?


Cormier (who is out of baseball while we pay him)

I'll give you that one.


To add to the insult, he signs Stanton, who was a closer for SF who was Danny Graves-like last year

I didn't like the Stanton signing; but his career numbers don't make him one of the worst....

1079 IP - 1.34 WHIP 3.83 ERA overall . He was 7-7 with eight saves and a 3.99 ERA in 82 appearances with the Nationals and Giants last season. And in the last 7 days he has posted a 1.07 WHIP 1.92ERA.

Kirk Saarloos, a pitcher who Oakland no longer wanted.

How do you know that? He went 17-16 in the 2 years he was with the A's, with an ERA of 4.46. That is not terrible. Another pitcher we took a chance on, and not at a great risk (1 yr/1.2 Mil), while trading a low level minor league pitcher (Shafer).

Take a look around the majors WV and how every team is scrambling for pitching, and has been. And a lot of them are taking chances and getting burned too. What is sinking the Cards and Yanks for example? That is not making excuses for the Reds. Just looking at the reality of the pitching situation in the majors right now. There are a lot of teams right now whose bullpens are killing them.

I still say we have some talented young arms in this bullpen (minus a Weathers (who hasn't been bad) and Stanton). They aren't being handled properly, or getting the needed IPs. And I agree with a Brantley assessment from a few weeks ago.... they have the talent; but they need to "learn" how to pitch on the ML level. That takes patience and IPs. And in that sense, Naron is not the man. He goes with whoever seems to be hot.

Overall - I'm giving Cast/Krivsky more time. I'm not denying some of the questionable moves they have made. But they have to be given more time - at least more then 15 months. Krivsky likes defense and strong pitching. The team he took over didn't have anything close to that to begin with. But where have the defensive liabilites been?...

A young, yet talented 3bman (EE). The OF (Jr/Dunn).

Catching. Ross has sucked it up. You miss LaRue? At 5.4 Mil/yr take a look at his numbers....

AVG .167 | HR 2 | RBI 4 | OBP .233 | SLG .333 .566 OPS

At least we're paying our crappy catcher, who isn't bad defensively IMO, and calls a good game, a lot less. ;)

Gonzo has had his spells early this season no doubt; but all players have that. But overall he's an improvement at SS. And his offensive performance so far has been a plus to this team

AVG .262 | HR 11 | RBI 26 | OBP .309 | SLG .491 .800 OPS

Will he maintian that? Has GABP helped? Don't know. Just enjoying watching him for now. But he's better then a Lopez IMHO.

Have we improved 2B with Brandon Phillips? I think so.

AVG .285 | HR 11 | RBI 34 | OBP .333 | SLG .498 .831 OPS

There is not much Krivksy can do with the OF, as far as defense, when you've got Dunn and Jr. Getting Jr out of CF was a plus; but overall he's a mediocre OFer due to age. But what is Krivsky to do there? What are his options? Finding someone to take Jr would be nice, but near to impossible. And offensively he is performing, so I have no problem with him being there until a more viable option appears (Bruce in '09?).

I think they are still being cautious with Josh Hamilton, and not wanting to throw him to the wolves, put too much pressure on him right away, after seeing what he has been through in his personal life. I'd use Hopper in a platoon with him in CF.

1B - the Hatteberg/Conine platoon has produced....

.282 BA .348 OB% .459 SLG% .808 OPS 10 HRs 42 RBIs

Not bad.

The bottomline is.... it's still the pitching.

Arroyo has sucked since the second half of last year. But you're gonna fault Krivsky for taking a chance, trading away Pena, and signing him? I'm not. We needed pitching. What was available at the time. Not a bad gamble.

Berlisle has been a pleasant surprise.

Harang has been harang. Slightly off from last year with that 4.24 ERA. But still has a 6-2 record.

Milton? Not Krivsky's doing, but the guy has a guaranteed contract. They had no other viable alternatives, so they had to run him out there and keep their fingers crossed. But they knew in the back of their minds, IMHO, that the guy is toast.

Bailey? We'll see. How they handle this kid the rest of the season will be a HUGE indicator IMO of the attitude/approach of this FO. If they abuse him for the sake of trying to climb back ito this stinking division, and risk his career/longterm plans, then they are IDIOTS. ;)

But IMHO, this team is fixable. Just not in '07, and probably '08. We are going to have to have some patience with some of these young players (EE, BP, Hamilton, Bailey), get rid of some of the fodder, and start looking at what young talent we have in the farms (Votto, etc).

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 09:18 AM
But where has he really committed the money/contracts?....

He resigned Dunn, Harang, and extended Arroyo (4.3 mil/yr), Lohse (4.2 mil/yr), Gonzo (16 Mil/3 yrs), (Weathers 4.5 mil/2yrs), Conine (2 Mil/1 yr), extended Hatteberg for 1 yr (1.6 Mil), Stanton (5 Mil/2yrs).

What kind of math are you using for that Arroyo extension? He signed a 2 year, $25 million extension.

Also, don't forget about the Rheal Deal and Moeller.

Krusty
06-10-2007, 10:07 AM
Rome wasn't built in two years. And neither will be the Reds farm system. What O'Brien started four years ago is starting to reaching the majors. Homer Bailey was the beginning. There will be others to come.

But Krivsky has had two amateur drafts under his belt. It will take at least another two seasons to see the results come to Cincinnati. So when you think about it, it takes about five years before you see the results of the farm system.

I'm not saying the Reds aren't on the right track but patience is once again the word. If Krivsky can move Dunn and/or Griffey at the trading deadline, that will go a long way in restructuring the ballclub.

Marc D
06-10-2007, 10:07 AM
I just look at the body of work in his time as the GM. The negatives are a mile long and don't need to be rehashed, the positives are BP, JH and Arroyo. As far as the 18 month thing goes, I agree no one would have us contending in that short a period of time.

That said, if you look at the moves he has made to get us to where we need to be you don't see a very pretty picture. I don't need to see but 1 or 2 dead bodies come out of a doctors office before I start to question his abilities regardless of his credentials or tenure.

If WK makes some solid moves at the deadline and rids himself of Narron by the end of '08 then I'll reevaluate my opinion of him. If he does nothing or makes moves that resemble the ones he has made in the past then there can be no doubt he's in over his head.

Untill then its The Trade, Narron and the pen when I think of WK and he gets a big fat F so far.

GAC
06-10-2007, 10:07 AM
What kind of math are you using for that Arroyo extension? He signed a 2 year, $25 million extension.

I simply got his yearly salary (2007) from ESPN. But here are the other details on his extension and what it involves....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2758621

Arroyo gets base salaries of $4,125,000 this year and $3.95 million in 2008, figures set under the old contract. The extension includes a $2.5 million signing bonus that will be paid next year. Arroyo will get salaries of $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010. There is a club option at $11 million for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

When Krivksy did this, every Reds fan was ecstatic and glad they spent the money. Now that he has been struggling it's a bad deal? You can't have it both ways.


Also, don't forget about the Rheal Deal and Moeller.

I didn't. Read my post above again. ;)

And we have $700,000 invested in Moeller. No great investment there. He is a peripheral player that won't be here at some point. He's not the problem either. But quality catchers are in short supply (availabilty) in MLB. Aren't you glad we still don't have LaRue (see his numbers/salary above)?

StillFunkyB
06-10-2007, 10:08 AM
I do not support Narron at all. I want him gone. Last night at the game I got this bad feeling that Narron was going to pinch hit Castro in the 9th, because as Adam Dunn was sent on deck I could see Juan with a bat and helmet walking in the dugout.

I really don't want to see them fire Krivsky yet. This team was in such a mess, and firing your GM every couple of years isn't going to help it get better any faster, IMHO. Now if he pulls off another couple of dumb trades I will probably change my mind. Especially if it involves Dunn, and the Reds get a bunch of doo doo like they did with Majewski.

Another note on last nights game... There were too many freakin Indians fans there!

mth123
06-10-2007, 10:09 AM
OK. My turn.

I mostly agree with WVREDSFAN. To catch-up on the history a little.

1. Jack McKeon did a really good job here IMO. He seemed to jell nicely with the players, the town and the media. He got some good production out of a good group that grew-up together under his guidance right before our eyes. But then the Griffey trade changed the entire dynamic. Not only did a couple decent young players who fit in the mix get subtracted and the cash commitment wipe out any chance to improve the pitching staff (I think Lindner pulled the rug out from under Bowden on that one), but my interpretation of some of the incidents that occurred and the comments of players that left was that the clubhouse become a sour atmosphere. This atmosphere was not specifically because of anything Griffey did, but because now there seemed to be a small contingent of players who undermined the manager's authority (I do not think they did this intentionally) by having the direct ear of the GM. The manager became caught in the middle and IMO lost his effectiveness. I blame this entirely on Bowden and not the players themselves. In the end, it just wasn't working and either McKeon or Bowden needed to go (I think the wrong one stayed behind).

2. Bob Boone was the worst type of Manager possible. It seems that everyday he seemed to need to meddle with something in an effort to prove what a genious he was. I think he's a good comp for Narron.

3. As far as Dave Miley goes, I agree with Mario-Rijo (welcome back to ORG BTW Mario)




Miley was a guy who was undone by a lack of talent to some extent and by one fatal flaw he had. He didn't demand respect from his players and the Veterans on those teams took complete advantage and before long so did the rest of the team. As far as X's and O's go he wasn't all that bad and when he took over that putrid team after the firesale his undertalented and non-experienced unit played pretty well for their shortcomings. His record that '03 season? 22-35 for a WP% of .386 and that's w/o Griffey, Larkin, Harang (as we know him now) or Arroyo. That was with such stars as Smitherman, Stenson, Olmedo and Paul Wilson as our ace.

Once the firesale moves a couple veterans out and its time to audition and nurture some kids, there could be a lot worse choices than Miley as an interim caretaker, but as an actual Manager, he seemed to be in over his head. The Peter principle applies IMO.

4. On to Narron. I said in the game thread that I'm in permanent Fire Narron mode. My comments about Bob Boone apply and he scares the heck out me with:

A. His mishandling of pitchers. I hope Harang, Arroyo, Bailey etc surivive his imcompetence.
B. His way of dealing with younger players. See EdE, Deno, the young pen guys as examples.

5. Finally to Krivsky. There is no question that the team is better positioned for a core group of young talent and developing minor leaguers coupled with some upcoming payroll flexability to move into contender status. What I'm not sure of is how much is due to Krivsky and his minions and how much is just the new regime riding the wave of events. IMO Krivsky gets a lot of credit for picking some low hanging fruit off the tree and developments over time from things he inherited. I'll give Krivsky some credit for the low hanging fruit moves. He picked some good fruit, but make no mistake, it was low hanging fruit.


A. The Arroyo trade was a no brainer brought about by the need to get Dunn's atrocious glove off of 1B, move Wily Mo to make room and add a competent major league starter. Personally, in the context of time, I think Krivsky overpaid a little. He had the low cost player that was penciled in as a starter and counted on for some big production while Boston had the guy who was put into a mop-up role with a contract that they wanted to move. I think he should have gotten more.

B. Phillips and Hamilton were more astute moves IMO. These both qualify as one time uber-prospects who had faded into oblivion. The Reds had three veterans competing for time at 2B (Womack, Aurilia and Freel) when Phillips was acquired. It would have been easy to pass. I give WK credit for getting him. Drafting Hamilton was a move that seemed pretty surprising to some, but my guess is that other teams were also eyeing him or WK would not have felt the need to trade up with Chicago to get him. Kudos for identifying him and doing what it took.

C. Other low hanging fruit moves were nothing special IMO even though guys like Ross and Hatte have worked out well. Those are balanced by making bad choices on Cody Ross, Brendan Harris, Juan Castro, Rheal Cormier, etc.

D. When Krivsky tried to move to the next level he showed his limitations IMO. We've over discussed the abomination known as "the trade." For me, it was the off-season moves to help the pitching staff that did me in. This team was a solid number 3 starter and a decent pen arm or two from being in a much different position right now. Krivsky chose to rely on full seasons from the trade guys, Cormier and Lohse, supplemented with re-signing Weathers, adding Stanton and trading for Saarloos. Getting Saarloos was the right idea, just the wrong guy. WK need to go after a couple undervalued Arms with upside and get one established top 3 in the rotation type starter. He spent a lot of money and didn't do any of those things. BTW, David Weathers has been wonderful this year, but I still am not high on what he brings to the mound and wonder if we'll see a big drop in the near future. Of course over use will probably be blamed so we'll never know if it happens,

These moves aside, for me WK's job is now entirely dependent on what he does with Narron. If he sticks with him much longer, then I think both he and Narron shoud be fired. If he acts in the near future to stop the insanity, then I'd be willing to wait and see a little longer. Make no mistake though. The perception of a brighter future from youth and payflex is much more due to the players WK inherited (Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Fisher, Cueto, Pelland, Medlock, etc) and the passage of time (Milton, Griffey, etc.) than it is any of his doing. If he sticks with Narron and his pitcher abuse, he's likely to screw that all up.

westofyou
06-10-2007, 11:03 AM
If you look across MLB, no franchise has been guilty of more bad moves than the Cincinnati Reds over the past 15 months that have gone sour

That's some tasty hyperbole.

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 11:05 AM
When Krivksy did this, every Reds fan was ecstatic and glad they spent the money. Now that he has been struggling it's a bad deal? You can't have it both ways.

I wasn't a big fan of the Arroyo extension. They had him under control this season and next...no reason to extend him after one year.

pedro
06-10-2007, 11:54 AM
Honestly if you are going to throw around hyperbole like like Kyle Lohse and Eddie Guardado being two of "the worst pitchers in the major leagues" and that he traded for a guy (Arroyo) "who was less than average", and blame him for letting go a guy (Todd Jones) who was traded by the previous GM I'm not sure how to respond. Sure, things are going poorly and Krivsky has made some bad decisions (in addition to some very good ones) but I'm constantly amazed by the reactionary hand wringing done by folks here and the useless hyperbole it spawns. In short, if you want to have an honest discussion about the merits of Krivksy's tenure maybe you ought to start with a little honesty yourself rather than a bunch of overbearing claptrap.

As for Narron, I've got nothing. That dude should have been gone yesterday.

WVRedsFan
06-10-2007, 12:18 PM
Honestly if you are going to throw around hyperbole like like Kyle Lohse and Eddie Guardado being two of "the worst pitchers in the major leagues" and that he traded for a guy (Arroyo) "who was less than average", and blame him for letting go a guy (Todd Jones) who was traded by the previous GM I'm not sure how to respond. Sure, things are going poorly and Krivsky has made some bad decisions (in addition to some very good ones) but I'm constantly amazed by the reactionary hand wringing done by folks here and the useless hyperbole it spawns. In short, if you want to have an honest discussion about the merits of Krivksy's tenure maybe you ought to start with a little honesty yourself rather than a bunch of overbearing claptrap.

As for Narron, I've got nothing. That dude should have been gone yesterday.
'
Those were my opinions. Nothing more. I never intended to label Lohse and Guardado "the worst pitchers in the major leagues," but I meant that to be Kim, Mays, and a few others. One of the reasons why the electronic discussion breaks down true meaning sometimes.

I consider Arroyo (as I now see it based on performance lately) a less than average pitcher. That's my opinion. That's as honest as I can be. You have yours and I have mine. No need to question my integrity. And the Todd Jones mention was just an example I sould have not used. Maybe I should have used Franklin and Hancock as examples. Is that honest?

I certainly do not mind anyone disagreeing with me, but rather than attack me, I would prefer the apologists to give me their opinions. Most have done that and I thank you. I now have a better understanding of why people feel like they do. Many agree with me and many don't. What else is new?

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 12:26 PM
Those who support Krivsky seem to be blind to the fact that this team now has the 3rd worst record in baseball. Last season, he got the job late in the off-season and made a few moves which worked out pretty well. I think everyone believed in Wayne at that point. He just got there and the team was playing extremely well. We all thought that this guy would bring winning back to Cincy with more time. He had just gotten here and brought us Phillips, Arroyo and Ross. He could do no wrong.

Fast forward to June 10, 2007. The team is horrible. The bullpen is worse than last year's debacle. The only teams in baseball with worse records are KC and Texas. Yes, Tampa is 4.5 games in front of the Reds.

The Wayne faction of the board loves to talk about how he's brought Hamilton, Arroyo and Phillips on board. In addition, I've been told numerous times that he's only been here "__________ months." The bottom line is that the team has had the following winning percentages:

2005 (O'Brien's last season): .451
2006 (Wayne's first season): .494
2007 (currently): .381

Ridiculous. Now...if Wayne had stripped this team and improved the farm system in the process, I would think that most fans would take no issue with the current record. But the saddest part is that he tried to improve the team. Last season, Cincy's 2006 payroll was roughly $60 million. This season, they started with a $69 million payroll. Net difference:+$9,665,965. (numbers courtesy of http://blog.sportscolumn.com/story/2007/4/9/1367/60158)

Net difference in winning percentage? over -.100

Can we categorically say that he has improved the farm system through the 2 drafts he has been responsible for? Probably too soon to truly assess that. Can we say that he has brought young players in who look to make this team better in the next 1-2 years? I can't see it at all. Can we say that he has made the team better on the field? That would be a huge no.

So what has Krivsky given us as Reds fans in his first 1.5 years? I don't see much. Bob can choose and wait and give him another 1.5 years to turn it around. But will that help or just be another 1.5 years for Krivsky to truly massacre the fan base?

pedro
06-10-2007, 12:30 PM
'
Those were my opinions. Nothing more. I never intended to label Lohse and Guardado "the worst pitchers in the major leagues," but I meant that to be Kim, Mays, and a few others. One of the reasons why the electronic discussion breaks down true meaning sometimes.

I consider Arroyo (as I now see it based on performance lately) a less than average pitcher. That's my opinion. That's as honest as I can be. You have yours and I have mine. No need to question my integrity. And the Todd Jones mention was just an example I sould have not used. Maybe I should have used Franklin and Hancock as examples. Is that honest?

I certainly do not mind anyone disagreeing with me, but rather than attack me, I would prefer the apologists to give me their opinions. Most have done that and I thank you. I now have a better understanding of why people feel like they do. Many agree with me and many don't. What else is new?

I questioned the integrity of your post, not you personally.

And for the record "apologists" is a loaded term that shouldn't be used either. It assumes an intellectual superiority that is neither appreciated nor warranted. That's my opinion.

westofyou
06-10-2007, 12:35 PM
"Blinded" "apologists"... what does it matter?

In my book I see, reactionary, short sighted, impatient, unrealistic and ill informed opinions every day on the other side of the dish... que sera, sera.

Steve4192
06-10-2007, 12:42 PM
que sera, sera.

Que Serra Serra?

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Columnists/Rodriguez/2006/12/22/serra250.jpg

jojo
06-10-2007, 12:43 PM
hmmmmmm....because the Reds could have Bavasi/Hargrove?

KronoRed
06-10-2007, 12:45 PM
I have no reason to support either of these guys in their present jobs, perhaps if Krivksy actually blows it up at some point instead of following the same model of past Reds gm's of hoping your team catches lighting in a bottle then maybe I'll be on board, otherwise right now I don't see much difference between Krivksy and the last few guys.

Narron? I've covered my feelings on him before :D

GAC
06-10-2007, 01:23 PM
The Wayne faction of the board loves to talk about how he's brought Hamilton, Arroyo and Phillips on board. In addition, I've been told numerous times that he's only been here "__________ months."

So we're a faction now, just because we don't carry an absolute hatred for the guy like some do? :lol:

I've acknowledged that he's made some mistakes and boneheaded moves since being here. I just don't think the guy has been given enough time to implement any longterm plan, or to be able to make a really sound, objective eval. He could very well turn out to be crap. Just to early to tell IMHO. And rotating GMs every 2 years certainly doesn't help to improve this team. What GM would take the job knowing he'd better guarantee some sort of instant success, and knowing the shape of the team he was taking command of?

westofyou
06-10-2007, 01:25 PM
So we're a faction now, just because we don't carry an absolute hatred for the guy like some do?

Evidently it's a black and white issue in a increasingly gray world, cracks me up.

pedro
06-10-2007, 01:45 PM
What GM would take the job knowing he'd better guarantee some sort of instant success, and knowing the shape of the team he was taking command of?

good point GAC.

redsmetz
06-10-2007, 01:50 PM
I've hesitated to enter this fray, but here's just a couple of thoughts.

I'm not convinced the "blow it up" model is always necessary. I think one can rebuild a team and its system without throwing everything out and starting fresh. And to say that isn't to subscribe to "more of the same". I think of Dave Dombrowski going to Detroit and frankly, the Tigers stunk for a couple/few years prior to them going to the Series last year. I think it's way to premature to sound the death knell on Wayne Krivsky. Frankly, to do so would be "more of the same". A little organizational stability would be a big help at this point. The Reds have had a habit of throwing folks overboard every few years.

As for Jerry Narron. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like the guy. That said, being likeable doesn't necessarily win ballgames, but I think he's a heckuva a lot brighter than the vast majority of Redszoners give him credit for. I don't think there is any manager out there who would be a panacea for the problems this team has. Maybe the short attention span we have as a society requires an explosive firebrand in the manager's. I would prefer not - such is a problem with our world today. I still would like to see Narron suceed and honestly don't believe him to be too much different from other now successful managers who got off to slow career starts.

The instant gratification mobs will likely savor his blood.

WVRedsFan
06-10-2007, 01:52 PM
I questioned the integrity of your post, not you personally.

And for the record "apologists" is a loaded term that shouldn't be used either. It assumes an intellectual superiority that is neither appreciated nor warranted. That's my opinion.

From Webster:

apologist



Main Entry: apol·o·gist
Pronunciation: \ə-ˈpä-lə-jist\
Function: noun
Date: 1640
: one who speaks or writes in defense of someone or something

Hard to see how I was assuming intellectual superiority. I never intended that and apologize if you took it that way.

We disagree. No need to get nasty.

pedro
06-10-2007, 01:54 PM
I was there with you on Narron until about a month ago redsmetz. I've just really soured on his handling of the pitching staff. He certainly seems to be a decent clubhouse guy and manages on an even keel, which I too like as opposed to a "screamer". Regardless, he's a bad fit for this team, right now IMO and as such I'd prefer he was replaced sooner rather than later.

pedro
06-10-2007, 02:00 PM
From Webster:

apologist



Main Entry: apol·o·gist
Pronunciation: \ə-ˈpä-lə-jist\
Function: noun
Date: 1640
: one who speaks or writes in defense of someone or something

Hard to see how I was assuming intellectual superiority. I never intended that and apologize if you took it that way.

We disagree. No need to get nasty.
Colloquial usage

Today the term "apologist" is colloquially applied in a general manner to include groups and individuals systematically promoting causes, justifying orthodoxies, or denying certain events, even of crimes. Apologists have been characterized as being deceptive, or "whitewashing" their cause, primarily through omission of negative facts (selective perception) and exaggeration of positive ones, techniques of classical rhetoric. When used in this context, the term often has a pejorative meaning. The neutralized substitution of "spokesperson" for "apologist" in conversation conveys much the same sense of "partisan presenter with a weighted agenda," with less rhetorical freight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apologetics

Mario-Rijo
06-10-2007, 02:04 PM
Originally posted by mth1233. As far as Dave Miley goes, I agree with Mario-Rijo (welcome back to ORG BTW Mario)

Thanks mth I appreciate it, and thanks to everyone who voted for me. :)

And BTW WVRedsFan good topic!

WVRedsFan
06-10-2007, 02:10 PM
And BTW WVRedsFan good topic!

Hey, Mario. Glad to have you here.

As for the topic, I don't know about that. Methinks it is black and white and no one's going to change their minds, so what's the use?

I'm pretty thin-skinned these days, so it's time to take some time off and let you guys have at it.

redsmetz
06-10-2007, 02:23 PM
I was there with you on Narron until about a month ago redsmetz. I've just really soured on his handling of the pitching staff. He certainly seems to be a decent clubhouse guy and manages on an even keel, which I too like as opposed to a "screamer". Regardless, he's a bad fit for this team, right now IMO and as such I'd prefer he was replaced sooner rather than later.

Clearly that is his glaring weakness and this is probably the worst team to have that situation. The staff, particularly the bullpen, is not strong. That said, I'd still be curious to see if he's a good manager with some bad clubs. The team is certainly underperforming and, alas, he will probably have to go.

red-in-la
06-10-2007, 02:38 PM
OK, here it is:

1. um........um.........

2. see #1

3. nuts

When I saw the title of this thread I assumed you would not get a single reply.....but in my quest for 6,000 posts I though I would. Then I open the thread and we are now discussing Webster again.....oh, and that Serra Serra guy......him I could support.

4256 Hits
06-10-2007, 02:49 PM
I simply got his yearly salary (2007) from ESPN. But here are the other details on his extension and what it involves....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2758621

Arroyo gets base salaries of $4,125,000 this year and $3.95 million in 2008, figures set under the old contract. The extension includes a $2.5 million signing bonus that will be paid next year. Arroyo will get salaries of $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010. There is a club option at $11 million for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

When Krivksy did this, every Reds fan was ecstatic and glad they spent the money. Now that he has been struggling it's a bad deal? You can't have it both ways.



So for two more years (09-10 because he was already signed for 07-08) of Arroyo they are paying:
2.5 Mil in 2008 (signing bonus)
9.5 Mil in 2009
11 Mil in 2010
2 Mil for buyout because unlikely they are going to pay him 11 or 13 mil for 2011.

So that comes to 25 million for two extra years.

As for "every Reds fan was ecstatic and glad they spent the money" comment you should read this thread about the contract extention you will see there was plenty of people that did not like the contract extention (the dollar part) when it was signed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54471&highlight=Arroyo+signs+contract

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 04:48 PM
So we're a faction now, just because we don't carry an absolute hatred for the guy like some do? :lol:

I've acknowledged that he's made some mistakes and boneheaded moves since being here. I just don't think the guy has been given enough time to implement any longterm plan, or to be able to make a really sound, objective eval. He could very well turn out to be crap. Just to early to tell IMHO. And rotating GMs every 2 years certainly doesn't help to improve this team. What GM would take the job knowing he'd better guarantee some sort of instant success, and knowing the shape of the team he was taking command of?

There's a difference between instant success and producing a team which is much worse, so far, than last year while raising payroll by 16%.

And beyond the product currently on the field, I haven't seen much of a difference with the future direction of the franchise. I haven't seen WK bringing in much young talent. I haven't seen the Reds draft aggressively, landing big names who have fallen. So I'm not sure why anyone would be overly optomistic about the future. Sure there's Homer, Bruce and Votto on the way. But this team stinks right now with Dunn, Harang and Arroyo.

Good point about the long term plan. He has only been here a somewhat short time, but I haven't even seen a direction where this guy is headed. That's what bothers me. To get a 16% bump in payroll and take a .500ish team and turn it into one of the worst teams in the game is pretty tough to do. That to me means he tried this season and failed.

pedro
06-10-2007, 05:00 PM
I haven't seen WK bringing in much young talent.

Hamilton and Phillips are certainly "young talent". That's 25% of the starting lineup right there . Call it luck or what you will but I don't think it's insignificant.

IIRC, Felipe Lopez and Sean Casey are the only young position players to be acquired by the Reds and given any significant playing time in the last 8 years. But now Krivky is a bad GM because he hasn't outpaced that in 15 months?

(BTW-I also think that Burton and McBeth certainly have some talent.)

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 05:27 PM
Hamilton and Phillips are certainly "young talent". That's 25% of the starting lineup right there . Call it luck or what you will but I don't think it's insignificant.

IIRC, Felipe Lopez and Sean Casey are the only young position players to be acquired by the Reds and given any significant playing time in the last 8 years. But now Krivky is a bad GM because he hasn't outpaced that in 15 months?

(BTW-I also think that Burton and McBeth certainly have some talent.)

I ws talking about the direction that WK has this team headed in. He isn't making a move to bring in a good amount of young talent. He took a couple of flyers on those guys and they worked out. Nice work. But to supplement them with Stanton and Moeller just makes no sense. Either go with the youth or go for broke now. Don't go halfway by signing a few guys. All that does is waste money. Gonzalez is having a nice season and the team is still one of the worst in the majors. Is that signing a success or useless? To me, it's useless since they are awful. But for those who like small victories, it has worked out so far.

You mention Lopez and Casey as being young position players who were given significant playing time, but I'm happier with the acquisitions like Harang and Edwin. Those are the kind I am talking about.

traderumor
06-10-2007, 05:33 PM
This in-season trading period should tell us something about WK. He is going to be in a lost season, clearly in need of revamping the team and has a few trading chips that could lead a few contenders to overpay. I could say someone potentially overpaying for Dunn (I know that is against the grain with his contract, but it could happen if the other team gets him signed as a part of the deal). He would have to look pretty attractive to a team making a run that already has a solid lineup, which is where he will fit best, IMO. Griffey could also net a major league ready youngster from a contender looking for some power from the left side. Stanton and Weathers probably won't land much more than a prospect, but if we got a power arm near major league ready for either of those, I'd be elated, but I certainly think it is doable. I would imagine he is going to hear offers for Harang and Arroyo, but I am making someone pay dearly for those guys, regardless of their struggles this year.

In short, this is a critical juncture in WK's career over the next month and a half through this offseason. He's got to realistically be looking for 2009 as the mentality at this point. If he appears to be operating in some shorter time frame, then I will jump on the "clueless" bandwagon very quickly.

traderumor
06-10-2007, 05:44 PM
I ws talking about the direction that WK has this team headed in. He isn't making a move to bring in a good amount of young talent. He took a couple of flyers on those guys and they worked out. Nice work. But to supplement them with Stanton and Moeller just makes no sense. Either go with the youth or go for broke now. Don't go halfway by signing a few guys. All that does is waste money. Gonzalez is having a nice season and the team is still one of the worst in the majors. Is that signing a success or useless? To me, it's useless since they are awful. But for those who like small victories, it has worked out so far.

You mention Lopez and Casey as being young position players who were given significant playing time, but I'm happier with the acquisitions like Harang and Edwin. Those are the kind I am talking about.
There is still the business side of the game, and the best explanation for not going for broke with a youth movement thus far has been twofold. First, there was the contention last year, which probably led to signing the vets this year to see if a vet/youth mix could pick up 5-10 wins over the prior year. It would be a real hard sell to the ticket buyers in this market after the contention last year that we are going full youth movement.

As for going all in the other direction, they at least were bright enough to see that they were not a big money free agent acquisition or two away, or go all Chicago Cubs and give a bunch of big money to average major leaguer pitchers. My best guess at putting together this year's squad was the belief that it could win 5-10 more games and be in contention in a weak Central, which would also serve the purpose of putting fannies in the seat while the farm system continued to season the best prospects.

pedro
06-10-2007, 05:51 PM
I ws talking about the direction that WK has this team headed in. He isn't making a move to bring in a good amount of young talent. He took a couple of flyers on those guys and they worked out. Nice work. But to supplement them with Stanton and Moeller just makes no sense. Either go with the youth or go for broke now. Don't go halfway by signing a few guys. All that does is waste money. Gonzalez is having a nice season and the team is still one of the worst in the majors. Is that signing a success or useless? To me, it's useless since they are awful. But for those who like small victories, it has worked out so far.

You mention Lopez and Casey as being young position players who were given significant playing time, but I'm happier with the acquisitions like Harang and Edwin. Those are the kind I am talking about.

I like Harang and Edwin too but those guys were acquired in 2003 and 2002. So that's what? 4 guys in the last 8 years? And why are those better acquisitions than Hamilton and Phillips? Because someone else did it?

As for the money, I could care less. Krivsky apparently had the money in his budget , wanted to field a moderately competitive team, and tried to squeeze more out of the likes of Mike Stanton and Rheal Cormier than was there. Spectacular failure? Most certainly. OTOH, it's not like there were a ton of great FA options out there either or Krivsky traded any of the Reds best prospects to get them. Teams frequently supplement their core with vets, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, it's really nothing new.

Anyway, as a lot of us have been saying the true test for Krivsky is what he does now that it's apparent he has a failure of a team on his hands. The next 60 days are key IMO.

pedro
06-10-2007, 05:59 PM
There is still the business side of the game, and the best explanation for not going for broke with a youth movement thus far has been twofold. First, there was the contention last year, which probably led to signing the vets this year to see if a vet/youth mix could pick up 5-10 wins over the prior year. It would be a real hard sell to the ticket buyers in this market after the contention last year that we are going full youth movement.

As for going all in the other direction, they at least were bright enough to see that they were not a big money free agent acquisition or two away, or go all Chicago Cubs and give a bunch of big money to average major leaguer pitchers. My best guess at putting together this year's squad was the belief that it could win 5-10 more games and be in contention in a weak Central, which would also serve the purpose of putting fannies in the seat while the farm system continued to season the best prospects.


That's how I see it too TR.

traderumor
06-10-2007, 06:08 PM
BTW, they have to go youth now, don't they? Don't they?

I really would be more likely to get excited for next year and beyond with a bullpen of McBeth, Burton, Coffey, Coutlangus, Salmon and another two trade pickups. That would be a nice mix of power arms, a LOOGY, and would make room for a niche guy (sidearmer, soft tosser) and the bullpen could be greatly improved by the second half of 2008.

pedro
06-10-2007, 06:11 PM
BTW, they have to go youth now, don't they? Don't they?

I really would be more likely to get excited for next year and beyond with a bullpen of McBeth, Burton, Coffey, Coutlangus, Salmon and another two trade pickups. That would be a nice mix of power arms, a LOOGY, and would make room for a niche guy (sidearmer, soft tosser) and the bullpen could be greatly improved by the second half of 2008.

Now's the time IMO. The fans will accept it now that the teams record already sucks.

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 06:38 PM
I like Harang and Edwin too but those guys were acquired in 2003 and 2002. So that's what? 4 guys in the last 8 years? And why are those better acquisitions than Hamilton and Phillips? Because someone else did it?

Think of it this way...two people go to the racetrack. One guy is a professional handicapper and one is a housewife. The handicapper wins 4 races and ends up +$100. The handicapper does a ton of research on each horse. Looks at charts, competition, prior results, etc. The housewife bets on names of horses that she likes. $2 to win on each one. She hits one race at 100-1 and wins more than the handicapper. Next time they go to the track, who would you think will do better?

That's the difference. WK got lucky on Hamilton and Phillips. Not to take anything away from that, but there's a reason why they were available for basically free. They were longshots. It's not everyday that young former 1st round draft picks are available for nothing.

IMO, it is impossible to build a winner through transactions like Hamilton and Phillips. They are too rare. So the better way to build is through trades, draft picks and international scouting. I have not seen an aptitude for that yet.

So to answer your question, the transactions to get Harang and EdE are "better" because it took more GM "talent" or "know-how", or whatever you want to call it. Anyone can trade for a guy who is about to be DFAed. WK did it and looks good for it. All the credit in the world for that. But that will not happen every day. To put yourself on the line and deal someone of value for youth...that takes talent and can make a GM.

pedro
06-10-2007, 06:54 PM
Think of it this way...two people go to the racetrack. One guy is a professional handicapper and one is a housewife. The handicapper wins 4 races and ends up +$100. The handicapper does a ton of research on each horse. Looks at charts, competition, prior results, etc. The housewife bets on names of horses that she likes. $2 to win on each one. She hits one race at 100-1 and wins more than the handicapper. Next time they go to the track, who would you think will do better?

That's the difference. WK got lucky on Hamilton and Phillips. Not to take anything away from that, but there's a reason why they were available for basically free. They were longshots. It's not everyday that young former 1st round draft picks are available for nothing.

IMO, it is impossible to build a winner through transactions like Hamilton and Phillips. They are too rare. So the better way to build is through trades, draft picks and international scouting. I have not seen an aptitude for that yet.

So to answer your question, the transactions to get Harang and EdE are "better" because it took more GM "talent" or "know-how", or whatever you want to call it. Anyone can trade for a guy who is about to be DFAed. WK did it and looks good for it. All the credit in the world for that. But that will not happen every day. To put yourself on the line and deal someone of value for youth...that takes talent and can make a GM.

I think that's a completely unfair characterization of what happened. The players were all acquired. How much research and planning and scouting went into each one we'll never know and anything else is pure speculation on your part poisoned IMO by the fact that you have a hard time giving Krivsky any credit for any of his moves because you don't like some of them.

edabbs44
06-10-2007, 07:03 PM
I think that's a completely unfair characterization of what happened. The players were all acquired. How much research and planning and scouting went into each one we'll never know and anything else is pure speculation on your part poisoned IMO by the fact that you have a hard time giving Krivsky any credit for any of his moves because you don't like some of them.

That is in no way an unfair characterization. Let me know how many DFAed or Rule 5 success stories there are in a typical year. Maybe one per year, on average? The odds are not in his favor to have years of success this way.

Also, if Wayne is here and this team eventually becomes good, he will (hopefully) have no roster spots for taking fliers on guys like Hamilton. But since there are multiple holes in the current roster, these moves do not hurt even if they fail.

Plus, everyone is so enamored with Hamilton's play so far. IMO, he is becoming overrated. Most of his success came early on in the year and has been pretty much ordinary since the start of May. The guy took the world by storm in the spring and has been living off spring training and April since then.

Remember David Ross? He looked awesome in the 1st half last season as well.

pedro
06-10-2007, 07:16 PM
That is in no way an unfair characterization. Let me know how many DFAed or Rule 5 success stories there are in a typical year. Maybe one per year, on average? The odds are not in his favor to have years of success this way.
.

Sure it is. It doesn't matter how successful those moves are or aren't typically. You're asserting as fact something that you have no idea whether or not is true; That the acquisitions of Harang and Encarnacion were the product of astute scouting and organizational skill while Phillips and Hamilton were not. To know that you'd have to been intimate with the process in which those players were evaluated and targeted by the Reds which, TTBOMK, you are not.

IIRC, Encarnacion was a toss in it a trade who's biggest target was Rueben Mateo and Harang was the second player in a trade that was centered around Joe Valentine and made by interim GM's after Bowden was fired.

The fact that you are lauding the Reds for "good design" on those moves at this point is largely the result of those moves working out well and has nothing to do with whether or not they were inspired moves in the first place. Now I realize that the same can be said about the acquisition of Phillips and Hamilton, but that doesn't mean Krivsky doesn't deserve just as much credit for those moves as do the GM's who made the deals for Encarncion and Harang.

Personally I don't care how Krivsky acquires good players to build this team around as long as he does it.

traderumor
06-10-2007, 07:27 PM
I remember the Harang trade like it was yesterday. He was generally considered as a good middle of the rotation at best, but then his first outing, I saw someone who had a clue what pitching is all about. The rest is history. I also was very impressed with McBeth's ability to keep the ball down around the knees the two outings I have seen him. Talk about being starved, but that memo was missed some time ago in the Reds system, where guys throw balls thigh over the middle of the plate like its a simulated game. A strategy at this point is to keep on dealing for Billy Beane surplus, we've gotten some good arms who can also pitch from him.

coachw513
06-10-2007, 08:19 PM
Today clearly is an appropriate time to discuss the future direction of this franchise...many of us watched a wonderful 30 minute tribute to our great announcers, Hoyt, Nuxhall and Brenneman...and of all the radio clips played, only 1 clip from the time period after 1990 (Griffey's 500th homerun call)...I never think of us as the Devil Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc but the simple fact of the matter is that's what we've become...and to discuss WK's moves would bring to mind the biggest off-season acquisition for the Reds this year was Thom Brenneman...sheesh...

First, yes Narron has to go...as I stated earlier this weekend he is NOT the reason this team is bad, but:

1. He doesn't make us better in any way;
2. He simply cannot handle pitching staff decisions, both related to pitch counts (abuse related issues) of the starters (our greatest area of strength at the moment) and a clear inability to manage/develop a bullpen...THAT BEING SAID, IT IS NOT NARRON'S FAULT THIS IS THE WORST BULLPEN I CAN EVER REMEMBER THE REDS HAVING...
3. It is my belief that this team needs to get younger and to build...despite Narron's "play the game the right way" mantra, this team is NOT fundamentally sound and to think a rebuilding team on Narron's watch will begin to play more efficiently and effectively isn't accurate, IMHO

But the larger issue is Krivsky...it's my belief we are in better position as a franchise right now than we were in January '06 despite the regression in record...but how much of this can be attributed to WK is the larger question...IMHO, Krivsky's accomplishments largely exceed his failures but the caveat remains: the next 6-12 months will define him and this franchise...

Successes:
1. Totally revamping the talent of our everyday lineup...Dunn was not a 1B...the pickups of Hatteburg and Conine have not only provided solid, average to above production, but have bridged the gap to Votto in the minors (much as the Dan-O signing of Randa to bridge the gap to EE a few years ago)...the pickup of Phillips has proven outstanding (a little better than Womack, huh??)...AGon's signing and play exceeds that of Lopez (and cheaper than FeLo's extension/new deal probably would have been)...Dunn replaces Pena, who begat Arroyo...Hamilton/Freel in CF with KGJ in RF is at least as good presently as Griffey/Kearns, with the long-term potential of Hamilton raising that side of the ledger...finally, Ross is at worst a cheaper LaRue (and I personally feel will/would have produced better O & D over the next 2-3 years)...

2. Use of non-conventional, inexpensive ways to improve the club...some here have pooh-poohed the acquisitions of Phillips, Hamilton, even Ross..."scrap heap" finds as they might have been, at least it was Krivsky who was wise enough to make these moves happen...does it take less thought and talent to pull these moves off than a major trade???...I don't know, but I don't think these moves should be disconted or discredited simply because they were not 3-team trades...

3. Not overpaying for a bad FA crop this past offseason...sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make...nothing from last winter made sense both in combination of financial risk/talent potential...

4. Re-signing/extending Arroyo and Harang...sensational, under the radar moves...Harang is the foundation, the bridge to the Bailey/Cueto types and even if Arroyo slides back in form (or better said, doesn't escape the malaise he's in), the financial investment is still better than overpaying for a bad FA starter, when you combine that with the PR (fanny's in seats) plus of having Arroyo, a fan favorite, around...

5. Making moves which have not affected the integrity of the rapidly improving farm system...no, he gets no credit for the talent inherited but IIRC he's really not given up anyone who truly is a major piece of the future puzzle...as much as we (legitimately) question some of the money spent on marginal veterans, the moves haven't come at the expense of young arms and bats...he has been a positive, steady shareholder of our farm system, and considering they did contend last year and clearly they thought they could contend this year, that is a very, very important positive...he hasn't mortgaged the farm system...

On the other hand, there is 1 major failure which has created all of his issues:

WK for 2 consecutive years has grossly overestimated our ability to contend, albeit in a weak NL Central...this mistake led him to bite too quickly to try and improve the bullpen last year and overpay for Maj and Bray...it is why there are too many millions of $$ invested in Castro, Stanton, Valentin, Cormier, etc because he felt putting a handful of vets with the current makeup would put this team in position to win a playoff berth...add the little money here and there and you have a bunch of $$ with little return since we are NOT a playoff contender and the experience you partially invested in is a non-issue...its the perceived need for experience in the bullpen (we see the growing pains of young guys like Coffee, Coutlangus, Salmon, Burton, etc this season) that caused a misconstruction of the bullpen with too many soft-tossers and not enough young, hard-throwing "miss bat" types...

For this reason, its DEFCOM 4 time for Krivsky and the Reds...if he realizes this team cannot compete in current form...if he realizes Narron holds back this team (and potentially risks it's primary investments of Bailey, Harang and Arroyo) and makes a change...if he uses the next 6 weeks to slowly make effective trades (if available) for Hatteberg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton and his major chip in Adam Dunn, and if not, does so in the off-season...if he ensures the nurturing and development of Bailey is at the top of this franchise's priority list...if he is capable of resigning Lohse (or a similar performing #4 starter) at a good going rate...if he ensures new on-field management will create an atmosphere conducive to cultivating and growing young talent (EE, BP, JH, JV and eventually JB, DS and others)...if he sees the progress of McBeth and Coutlangus and understands it is time to evalutate not only them but Salmon and Coffee for future roles in the bullpen AND makes the philosophical decision that bullpens like the NYM and Tigers are built on hard-throwing, high K guys and make moves accordingly...if, if, if...

For me, I'm not throwing WK under the bus for the past 16 months...I think he's done enough good things to merit us saying, "okay Wayne, those were the warmup exercises, now here's the test"...the remainder of this season and the off-season will not only make him or break him, but will more importantly shape this franchise for the next decade...But I have to confess to not being able to wholehaeartedly argue he's unquestionably up to the task...

GAC
06-10-2007, 09:31 PM
I haven't seen WK bringing in much young talent.

Young talent, meaning what? For the ML roster, or minor league prospects for development? I'm no expert on the farm system. So you'll have to ask someone else to answer that question.

But overall, I think he has went out and acquired far more youth then vets. The only problem is - when you acquire youth from other teams, it primarily for development in your minors. So it's hard to gauge if those players are going to pan out or not.

You're certainly not going to see results within the first year on the job.

And another interesting point is - teams aren't going to be so easy to trade away talented young prospects unless you first have something to offer back in return. Has Krivsky inherited an organization that possesses that commodity?

But if you look at this team/roster, it has a lot of youngsters on it. Now granted, some of it he didn't acquire, they were already here. But that is not his fault. We have Dunn (age 27) in LF, he's got Hamilton (26) in CF, Encarnacion (24) at 3B, Phillips (25). And he has also acquired some young arms that have been given chances in this bullpen. Other then Weathers and Stanton, it's filled with young arms. Granted, some haven't performed too well early on in this season; but is that due to their youth/inexperience... or possibly how Narron is handling them? But one can't say he hasn't gone out and tried (acquired) young arms.

Giving even players like Lohse and Berlisle chances is trying to go with youth.

And when I look around MLB, and teams dire needs for young arms, and their own bullpen struggles - it's not like the market is busting at it's seams with available young talent. A lot of teams are utilizing players in their bullpen that are "crapshoots" and keeping their fingers crossed.

And one must ask why did Krivsky sign vets like A Hatteberg, Conine, and even a Stanton?" Because we didn't have, within this organization (including the farm system), an immediate answer to such positions as 1B.


I haven't seen the Reds draft aggressively, landing big names who have fallen.

How many drafts has Krivsky been involved in? What big names? And a majority of the time it's a crapshoot in the draft anyway. Yu have no idea that that so-called #1 is going to pan out.



Good point about the long term plan. He has only been here a somewhat short time, but I haven't even seen a direction where this guy is headed. That's what bothers me. To get a 16% bump in payroll and take a .500ish team and turn it into one of the worst teams in the game is pretty tough to do. That to me means he tried this season and failed.

I'm not denying that this team has sucked it up big time the first couple months of the season. And while we've seen individual struggles in the early part of this season (kids like EE, who we counted on), it has primarily been this bullpen.

Eric_Davis
06-11-2007, 04:22 AM
I support Krivsky because I like that the future of the REDS continues to improve every month that he's been in charge.

I don't watch enough of Narron to have an opinion of him. I do think the talent level is better than the record, and I wouldn't be against getting a new manager, but I'll go with whatever Krivsky and Castellini want to do at this point.

I couldn't be happier with having Krivsky and Castellini in charge. Everything just keeps getting better.

FWIW, I hated letting Brendan Harris go for cash when I saw him as a valuable addition to this club as a utility player and spot starter.

sonny
06-11-2007, 05:51 AM
I generally like the job WK and BC have done. We have got a solid young core of position players, and when our other young players round out, we're going to have one heck of a team.

It is a practice in patience though.

GAC
06-11-2007, 08:50 AM
If I could treat this current team like I was in a fantasy league - where for the most part one can weekly drop & pick-up players at will, without having to be concerned about all the peripheral details involved behind the scenes that GMs have to worry about (moving salary, contract stipulations, arb eligibility, etc), then here are some of the moves I would make. Again, I'm simply speaking as a fan, so take it for what you will. But my premise is not to right this ship in '07 so much, but to set some wheels in motion......

#1 - I don't hate Narron, nor feel he is the huge reason for this teams failures. He makes some questionable decisions though, and I don't like the way he handles pitchers, as well as his shuffling of the lineup. He carries this mentality that he feels he must get everyone, somehow, into the game. He can't go with a set lineup. He's always tinkering. I'd fire him, and make Dent the manager on an interim basis with no gaurantees.

I'd also fire the pitching coach Dick Pole, and offer the job to Jeff Brantley. New blood. If nothing else, I'd at least offer it to Hume.

I need to free up some roster space. I also, at some point, have Freel coming off the DL.

I'd write Milton a check and tell him if I see him on my property again I'm sickin' the dogs on him. I'd DFA Moeller. In my heart I also want to DFA Castro, but I'm not and here's why..... If something were to happen to Gonzo, sadly enough, we have no backup for him at SS. I know - it's a sad situation we're in; but I don't want to start jerking too many guys around positionally, but want to leave them in positions that they have grown to feel comfortable in. In other words - I wouldn't want to move Phillips from 2B to SS and then have to put Freel at 2B. I want Freel on my bench as a super-sub. But Castro wouldn't see the light of day unless Gonzo broke his leg, or someone else in the INF tweeked somthing and needed a day or two off.

My INF would be (3B to 1B).....

Encarnacion (hell or high water kid! It's up to you to show me what you got)

Gonzo (he's had 11 errors so far; but I believe that is an aberration. Overall, he's an improvement at SS. His 800+ OPS and power has been a pleasant surprise/addition. Will he keep it up? At this point I'm not going to worry about it.

Phillips ( I think he could win a GG at 2B at some point)

Now on to 1B.....

I'd fill one of those vacant roster spots with Votto for the second half of the '07 season. But I'd have him in a platoon situation primarily with Hatteberg. I'd also keep Conine for now as a RH option on the bench.

Our bench strength right now is terrible. So I want to improve on that.

OF (LF to RF)....

I don't particularly like Dunn in LF, but what choice do I have? Right now - none. So he stays for now.

CF would be Hamilton for the most part. Show me what you got kid! But I'd keep Hopper on the bench and as a possible platoon ONLY in case Hamilton struggles and needs a break. I don't want to put too much pressure on Hamilton seeing his past personal struggles. But as long as he if performing he'd be my CFer. But I've watched Hopper in the OF, and this kid can cover some ground defensively. So Hopper could be a valuable asset of the bench in numerous ways.

Catcher - what can we do? Not much. Ross & Valentin.

But my bench would be.....

Freel, Hatteberg, Conine, Hopper, Valentin, Castro. And of course, when any of those are playing you're going to have guys like Hamilton, Votto, and Jr on the bench and available if needed. So Castro is gonna have a hard time getting in there unless someone dies. ;)

Bullpen.... we have, IMO, some young and possibly talented arms. But their usage/playing time is erratic. There is no consistency.

Stanton - I want to DFA the guy; but when I look at the pitching market and that teams are constantly hunting, plus what we are paying him, I'd first try to trade him for any reasonable return between now and the All-Star break. I'd hate to cut the guy loose when I know someone IS going to pick him up, and we are paying his salary.

But from what I've read, Guardado could be ready around the halfway point. If I find no suitors for Stanton, then sorry Mikey, I need the roster spot.

Weathers and Guardado would be my closers.

The rest of my bullpen would be comprised of young arms like McBeth, Santos, Majewski, Coutlangus, and Livingston. That's right - Coffey would stay at AAA until he shows me he can command with confidence his other pitches other then a fastball.

These young arms are gonna have to show me they have what it takes - sink or swim. But we also have other young arms in the wings....Burton, Saarloos, Burton, Salmom, and Bray (15 day DL).

By the way... what is going on with Bray? Haven't read much on him.

Now my batting order is gonna take some further thought... and I gotta get my beauty sleep. But I will tell you this.... Adam Dunn would not be batting 6th. ;)

GAC
06-11-2007, 08:52 AM
sorry - dp ;)