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pedro
06-12-2007, 06:46 PM
Barry got a free pass. The only thing Cincinnatians love more than hustle and hard work is another Cincinnatian.

I don't know. I thought a lot of fans greatly under appreciated Larkin.

pedro
06-12-2007, 06:47 PM
Ok.



If Barry was white he would have owned the city.

Because the only thing some in Cincinnati like more than another Cincinnatian is another white Cincinnatian.

MartyFan
06-12-2007, 06:51 PM
It's true, Cincinnati is the furthest north southern thinking town in the United States.

If Barry was white he would have been a favorite son and if Junior was white he would be god.

Doc. Scott
06-12-2007, 06:52 PM
Lance is baseball punk, dense as brick and about as warm as one too.

Man, have the folks here really turned on Lance since he flipped out over some criticism of Hal McCoy a while back and stopped posting here.

Obviously, I don't listen to him any more the way I used to, but has he really changed that much? Are you sure it isn't just a case of bad team= other things for ratings?

MartyFan
06-12-2007, 06:59 PM
I've never listened to Lance and never knew he posted on here at all. That said there were a few rumors attributed to him that came true and a few that never happened...so, all in all...he's a guy with an opinion.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 07:07 PM
Man, have the folks here really turned on Lance since he flipped out over some criticism of Hal McCoy a while back and stopped posting here.

Obviously, I don't listen to him any more the way I used to, but has he really changed that much? Are you sure it isn't just a case of bad team= other things for ratings?

Actually Lance attacked me in his dunderhead way here on the board, as far as listening to him, not bloody likely since I abhor Talk Radio of any sort, especially AM radio and local sports personalities.

TeamBoone
06-12-2007, 07:12 PM
It's true, Cincinnati is the furthest north southern thinking town in the United States.

If Barry was white he would have been a favorite son and if Junior was white he would be god.

Personally, I think both of these comments are bull.

Highlifeman21
06-12-2007, 07:23 PM
If you're ever at a game in Philly and Burrell is starting, make sure to sit in the left field corner. It's not just good-natured ribbing; the fans over there have an outlandish and pure hatred towards Pat Burrell. I actually thought some people went to the game just to yell at Burrell because they never actually even followed the game, except for what Burrell was doing (or not doing, in their view).

Just be careful of the Phillies Phans in the LF corner.

There's a good chance they'll take the Reds hat right off your head and run out of the stadium with it in tow.

Prior to Abreu getting traded to the Yankees, he got the same treatment as Burrell, if not worse, in RF.

It is amusing to listen to Philly Phans trash their own players in all the various sports. Just wait until they turn on Ryan Howard. It'll probably happen around 2008 or 2009.

Chip R
06-12-2007, 07:30 PM
I suspect you're right with regards to Votto (I have no idea on Dickerson). We already know Votto's defense won't win anybody over, and it may in fact turn quite a few people against him.

As of now, the only way I see Votto escaping "the treatment" is for him to hit close to or above .300 each season. If Votto hits .265 with a truckload of walks and above average power, there's a good chance he'll crapped all over by the local Cincinnati media and the casual Reds fan.


In Votto's case, I don't think his defense is going to be held against him if he plays 1st. Most people can't really tell a good 1st baseman from a bad one. If he can't come up with a throw in the dirt or something off the base, they blame it on the guy who threw the ball. Now if ground balls are going through his legs, people will notice. But people lived for years with Sean Casey at 1st and while he wasn't bad, he was no Gold Glover. But you are right when you say that his hitting will determine how popular he is. And I think he'll get somewhat of a free pass at least till he's arb eligible. I think that's what a lot of people forget about Dunn. As long as he was cheap and putting up the numbers he did, he wasn't criticized as much. But when he started making the money he did, that's when a lot of people wondered why the Reds paid good money for him.

I don't think it's necessarily a black-white issue as far as popularity goes. I think it's a money issue. Everybody loved Jr. before he came here and he didn't change his skin color. Likewise with Larkin and Davis. The more money they made, the more they were critcized. Heck, even Casey got criticized a lot more when he started making big money. Arroyo is already starting to get some criticism.

Heath
06-12-2007, 07:56 PM
To some pundits (re: Talking Heads) Adam Dunn is headed down the same road as Pat Burrell.

jojo
06-12-2007, 09:11 PM
I think good debate is good for ratings - so is firing people up.

They both work...they both work effectively...and they can both work together if you're good.

I bet getting knowledgeable hosts would work well too....

:beerme:

Joseph
06-12-2007, 09:12 PM
I bet getting knowledgeable hosts would work well too....

:beerme:

Being loud is more important than being knowledgeable....just saying.

jojo
06-12-2007, 09:16 PM
maybe I'm weird then because when I hear about how hot a newscaster is my radio dial goes click.... really life is way too short not to listen to something that will actually make you smarter....

and that is the beauty of redszone...


I tuned in to hear the Dunn discussion today after reading a post on the zone about it and caught Lance having to be told were he could find a list of potential free agents on the web. Thats understandable I guess, but since the crux of Lance's argument was that Dunn's $13M would be better spent on pitching and defense it was surprising to hear that he couldn't possibly understand how someone could argue the point when in fact Lance didn't even have a clue what talent would be available... I'm not sure how that's good radio.

Joseph
06-12-2007, 09:26 PM
I turn him off all the time. I don't listen to the morning guys very often either because they make Lance look like a PHD candidate.

I just wish my XM worked in the office. :)

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 11:09 PM
FWIW, I was at the game tonight and counted how many times Dunn was booed.

The official boo count was four times for Dunn tonight. He was booed every time he made an out offensively (three times), and he also was booed for letting a single drop in front of him in shallow left field.

Of course, the funny thing is, given where Dunn was positioned originally, I'm not sure any left fielder in the game except for maybe Carl Crawford catches that ball. But those Reds fans tonight down at GABP were dense to that fact, which doesn't surprise me at all.

gonelong
06-12-2007, 11:25 PM
Man, have the folks here really turned on Lance since he flipped out over some criticism of Hal McCoy a while back and stopped posting here.

Lance posting on this site was the most entertaining thing he has ever done as far as I am concerned.

I still get a chuckle out of how he just couldn't understand how we could possibly hold and opinion other than one that lined up with the McCoy's and Brenneman's of the world.

There was a thread about prospects and he was a bit smug about how Miguel Perez should be in the top 10 on that list. (We see how that worked out, ha ha.)

Lance has a show because he seems to really enjoy sports, and really enjoys talking about them. He surely doesn't have the mike because of his insight on knowledge of them.

GL

TeamBoone
06-13-2007, 12:07 AM
FWIW, I was at the game tonight and counted how many times Dunn was booed.

The official boo count was four times for Dunn tonight. He was booed every time he made an out offensively (three times), and he also was booed for letting a single drop in front of him in shallow left field.

Of course, the funny thing is, given where Dunn was positioned originally, I'm not sure any left fielder in the game except for maybe Carl Crawford catches that ball. But those Reds fans tonight down at GABP were dense to that fact, which doesn't surprise me at all.

Makes me sick. It really does.

Mario-Rijo
06-13-2007, 01:25 AM
Back to the topic at hand. A few tidbits from a chat wrap with Buster Olney that may shed a tad bit of light or not....

A bonehead question:


Chris (Cincinnati, OH): Buster, is there any truth to the Adam Dunn to LA for Nomar trade rumors? If not, do you see the Reds moving him at any point during the season?

Buster Olney: Chris: I'm sure the Dodgers would love to do a Nomar for Dunn deal, but I can't figure out why the Reds would want to do that; they'd want a prospect or two in return. I don't know how Nomar really helps them...


Something to help shed light on what kind of return we could expect on Dunn. It kind of frames up what a possible deal might look like IMO:


Buster Olney: Chad: Here's what executives with other teams believe is the major problem for Jon Daniels -- because Teixeira is considered to be the best and most valuable player in the organization, there is going to be an expectation from the fan base, and from Tom Hicks, that the Rangers should get a huge return for Teixeira. But because Tex is represented by Boras, and is 16 months away from becoming a free agent who will probably demand a contract north of $100 million, the Rangers probably won't get close to getting a huge package of players. If they get two B-plus/A-minus prospects, they would be doing very, very well. Now, the Dodgers' need for a middle-of-the-order hitter is acute right now, and maybe that will put the pressure on them (or the Angels) to offer up a package like Billingsley/Loney; for the Angels, maybe Saunders/Wood. But it's hard to imagine them getting more than that, we'll see. The Orioles and Rangers are not a good match, because the O's aren't a playoff contender and they won't give up their young pitching to get Teixeira, only to see him walk away after next year.

Mario-Rijo
06-13-2007, 01:34 AM
And this from Steve Phillips (I know a buffoon) chat wrap:


Phil (O.C.): The Angels really need some power, what are the odds of a Troy Glaus reunion? maybe Dunn??

Steve Phillips: For the last three years, the story has been the same for the Angels; they need another big power bat in the lineup to be a legit postseason threat. Glaus would be a better fit than Dunn, but I don't see the Angels making a big splash at the deadline. They might, but it goes against their character to make that deal. Maybe they'll surprise us, but don't count on it.



And although it's got nothing to do with what were talking about this question was also asked of him:


Cody - Huntington, WV: Steve - Homer Bailey was very impressive in his debut and showed that he can be very resilent. What can we expect from him for the remainder of the season and could he be enough for the Reds to make a push in the weak NL Central?

Steve Phillips: Homer Bailey is an interesting prospect with a good arm and a chance to be a good pitcher. You have to expect a certain level of crudeness to his game, as a young pitcher. Bailey has the potential to throw high-quality games, but he also has the potential to throw a clunker where he gets knocked out after three innings. Homer Bailey enough won't come close to being what the Reds need to win the division. If he gets hot, he could help, but it will take more pitching on more days than he himself alone can provide.

sonny
06-13-2007, 01:41 AM
The Angels have more use for Glaus than Dunn? pfffft!

I am still of the belief he'll be dealt right at the deadline with one team (in the AL, methinks) dropping a ton to get him in utter desperation. We kind of have the luxury in Dunn to hold his services hostage unless we get what we want. Will Krivsky do it though? Probably not.

Ron Madden
06-13-2007, 03:35 AM
It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.


All it really takes is for Marty to say it over the radio air waves.

Once any/all of the local media types hear Marty's opinion it instantly becomes thier opinion.

No matter if that opinion is substantial or not, most casual fans will believe it to be the gospel truth... After all Marty said it, all the beat writers and sportstalk host said it too. It must be so.

Eric_Davis
06-13-2007, 05:24 AM
Here's an interesting Adam Dunn stat that goes to what kind of impact he's had on the team.

Reds record in Dunn's starts 2001-present:

398-451 (.469 winning %)

Reds record 2001-present when Dunn doesn't start:

67-118 (.362 winning %)

That's huge and that's not a small sample, and I think other G.M.'s around the league see Adam Dunn as this type of impact player.....again, hence, the pitching around him with runners on base, solo jacks, etc....though Dunn is also responsible for his BA w/ RISP as other players with his power don't stare at one that goes right down the middle knowing that they'll only get one at the most.

Jpup
06-13-2007, 07:00 AM
All it really takes is for Marty to say it over the radio air waves.

Once any/all of the local media types hear Marty's opinion it instantly becomes thier opinion.

No matter if that opinion is substantial or not, most casual fans will believe it to be the gospel truth... After all Marty said it, all the beat writers and sportstalk host said it too. It must be so.

you guys give Marty way too much credit. How many people really pay attention to what he is saying anymore? Why are people still listening to games on the radio except for just every so often? I'm talking about the casual fan. What kind of ratings are the Reds pulling on 700? What kind of ratings does Lance get? I can't imagine they are that high, but I have no idea.

If the people in the area do not care enough to go to the games, why would they actually listen to them or someone talk about them on AM radio? Of course I listen to 700 on occasion on XM, but I don't count. :)

jojo
06-13-2007, 08:07 AM
The Angels have more use for Glaus than Dunn? pfffft!

I am still of the belief he'll be dealt right at the deadline with one team (in the AL, methinks) dropping a ton to get him in utter desperation. We kind of have the luxury in Dunn to hold his services hostage unless we get what we want. Will Krivsky do it though? Probably not.


Do you still get disappointed when your lottery ticket doesn't win? :D

All kidding aside, I hope you're right but I aint seeing it.... Here's to hope:

:beerme:

BRM
06-13-2007, 09:26 AM
Fay's short conversation with Castellini.



I had computer problems before the game, so I walked back to office to get it fixed for grab a spare. I'm waiting to go up on the elevator when Bob Castellini gets in. He has an office in the Enquirer building.

He was remarkably upbeat. Winning three of four and averaging 35,000 does wonders.

"When we get Eddie (Guardado) and (Bill) Bray, it moves everyone else back," he said. "Things line up."

He's a glass half-full type of guy. You've got to admire his enthusiasm and think a fire sale isn't just around the corner.

Red Leader
06-13-2007, 09:30 AM
"When we get Eddie (Guardado) and (Bill) Bray, it moves everyone else back," he said. "Things line up."

He's a glass half-full type of guy. You've got to admire his enthusiasm and think a fire sale isn't just around the corner.

:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

Noooooooo! Stop it. Stop it. Just stop it. It's gone on long enough. This team has no friggin shot at making it into the playoffs let alone getting past the first round. Sell, Bob, sell!

Heath
06-13-2007, 09:40 AM
I'm going to make a comment that might not sit well with the average fan.

If Bob Castellini had the mangos to say "You know, we aren't that great this year, but we have some young kids that can play. We are going to play these kids until the end of the year. As the Owner of this club, I encourage you to come to the ball park this summer and watch our club. Night in and night out they will give 100% on the field." I'd respect that.

However, gate reciepts are a lifeblood to an owner. Castellini thinks that talking playoffs will bring people down to the park.

BRM
06-13-2007, 09:42 AM
I don't know what's worse. The fact that he thinks this team is still in it or that he's counting on two injured lefties to "line everything up".

Red Leader
06-13-2007, 09:49 AM
I'm going to make a comment that might not sit well with the average fan.

If Bob Castellini had the mangos to say "You know, we aren't that great this year, but we have some young kids that can play. We are going to play these kids until the end of the year. As the Owner of this club, I encourage you to come to the ball park this summer and watch our club. Night in and night out they will give 100% on the field." I'd respect that.

However, gate reciepts are a lifeblood to an owner. Castellini thinks that talking playoffs will bring people down to the park.

Point well taken, Heath. I doubt you'd hear Bob saying anything like your paragraph above, although I certainly would respect that as well.

Hearing the names of Dunn and possibly Griffey being available via trade lead me to believe that Bob's quote to Fay was just lip service and meant to sell tickets, as you said. I should have given Bob a little more credit. I'm sure he didn't become a millionaire by being stupid. He also didn't become a millionaire by being a baseball man, either, so I guess it's possible, but I'm willing to believe what he said to Fay was just a company line quote to rally the troups. I'm sure Fay gets a lot of that.

membengal
06-13-2007, 09:49 AM
That BC believes that Guardado and Bray are a key to a better life for the team, exclusive of improvements elsewhere, causes me to elevate WK to "Grima Wormtongue" status. Actually, given O'Brien's eternal likeness to Gollum, I like the synergy.

blumj
06-13-2007, 09:50 AM
The Angels have more use for Glaus than Dunn? pfffft!
It hardly matters. If the Angels make a deal that requires them to give up anything better than Chone Figgens and/or Garrett Anderson, it'll be the shocker of the decade.

BRM
06-13-2007, 09:52 AM
Guardado and Bray will save the pen...apparently.

osuceltic
06-13-2007, 10:41 AM
Relax. There's plenty of time between now and the trade deadline. If things go well, the Reds turn things around and get back in the race, then great. That's a good thing, right?

If they don't go well, the team continues to struggle, and they're out of the race, then they can make a decision on what to do at the deadline.

registerthis
06-13-2007, 10:56 AM
That BC believes that Guardado and Bray are a key to a better life for the team.

That reminds me of a couple of years ago, when the Reds were tanking hard in the second half and O'Brien answered a question about it by stating that the club was still waiting on Jason Romano and Anderson Machado to come back.

What a difference they made.

registerthis
06-13-2007, 11:09 AM
Relax. There's plenty of time between now and the trade deadline. If things go well, the Reds turn things around and get back in the race, then great. That's a good thing, right?

I'd actually argue "no," and it's difficult to do that without sounding like you don't want the team to be successful. But these false half-seasons of hope, where the division plays down to the Reds level and they manage to remain only a few games back of playoff contention, have significantly harmed this franchise. It presents the false picture that the Reds are just THIS close to competing, and thus the much-needed offseason changes never materialize.

What's left is a team with talent at some positions, roster filler in other positions, gaping holes in the pitching staff, and no realistic shot whatsoever at a sustained playoff run. Yet here we are, year after year, glancing at the standings and crossing our fingers that the Eddie Guardado's and Anderson Machado's of the world will be enough to put us over the top and sneak us into the playoffs through the back door.

This is simply not a playoff caliber team. Period. Any illusions to the contrary are just that--illusions. The Scott Hattebergs, Norris Hoppers, Kyle Lohses, Jeff Conines, Gary Majewskis, Mike Stantons and David Weathers are not the future of this franchise. Neither is Griffey. Dunn is a huge question mark. I'd argue that the focus this team needs right now is on developing players like Votto and Bailey and Cueto--young, skilled players who *will* be here for some time. Players who very well could be the puzzle pieces that vault this team not just into illusory competitiveness, but real honest-to-god playoff hopefuls.

I'm not interested in another 2006, where a sub-500 team managed to whet the appetite of the faithful for a couple of months then fizzled into nothing. I want a team built to sustain competitiveness for years. Putting all your marbles into 2007, and praying that the Reds can bite, scratch and claw their way to within a few games of first place by September, will not accomplish that, and in fact will likely cause more harm than good.

KoryMac5
06-13-2007, 11:28 AM
I'd actually argue "no," and it's difficult to do that without sounding like you don't want the team to be successful. But these false half-seasons of hope, where the division plays down to the Reds level and they manage to remain only a few games back of playoff contention, have significantly harmed this franchise. It presents the false picture that the Reds are just THIS close to competing, and thus the much-needed offseason changes never materialize.

What's left is a team with talent at some positions, roster filler in other positions, gaping holes in the pitching staff, and no realistic shot whatsoever at a sustained playoff run. Yet here we are, year after year, glancing at the standings and crossing our fingers that the Eddie Guardado's and Anderson Machado's of the world will be enough to put us over the top and sneak us into the playoffs through the back door.

This is simply not a playoff caliber team. Period. Any illusions to the contrary are just that--illusions. The Scott Hattebergs, Norris Hoppers, Kyle Lohses, Jeff Conines, Gary Majewskis, Mike Stantons and David Weathers are not the future of this franchise. Neither is Griffey. Dunn is a huge question mark. I'd argue that the focus this team needs right now is on developing players like Votto and Bailey and Cueto--young, skilled players who *will* be here for some time. Players who very well could be the puzzle pieces that vault this team not just into illusory competitiveness, but real honest-to-god playoff hopefuls.

I'm not interested in another 2006, where a sub-500 team managed to whet the appetite of the faithful for a couple of months then fizzled into nothing. I want a team built to sustain competitiveness for years. Putting all your marbles into 2007, and praying that the Reds can bite, scratch and claw their way to within a few games of first place by September, will not accomplish that, and in fact will likely cause more harm than good.

I was actually thinking about that point today. Does this recent bit of good play squelch the FO's desire to make some deals. Is this recent stretch offering the fans and the FO false hope.

flyer85
06-13-2007, 11:35 AM
Does this recent bit of good play squelch the FO's desire to make some deals.Only if they dumb. It should be viewed as an opporutinity.


Is this recent stretch offering the fans and the FO false hope.
This is still a not very good team, that is obvious.

KoryMac5
06-13-2007, 11:51 AM
Only if they dumb. It should be viewed as an opporutinity.



This is still a not very good team, that is obvious.

We know this to be true but if you look at the quotes from the owner they tell a different story.

had computer problems before the game, so I walked back to office to get it fixed for grab a spare. I'm waiting to go up on the elevator when Bob Castellini gets in. He has an office in the Enquirer building.

He was remarkably upbeat. Winning three of four and averaging 35,000 does wonders.

"When we get Eddie (Guardado) and (Bill) Bray, it moves everyone else back," he said. "Things line up."

He's a glass half-full type of guy. You've got to admire his enthusiasm and think a fire sale isn't just around the corner

IslandRed
06-13-2007, 12:09 PM
We know this to be true but if you look at the quotes from the owner they tell a different story.

Do you honestly expect the owner to trash the product he's trying to sell?

If there's going to be a sell-off -- whether it qualifies as a fire sale or just a retooling -- the m.o. of this front office and ownership suggests that we'll know when the first trade is announced, and no sooner. Until then, stiff upper lip and all that.

flyer85
06-13-2007, 12:11 PM
Do you honestly expect the owner to trash the product he's trying to sell?No and I also think he will keep this team from doing what needs to be done to rebuild and come out of the process with a winning franchise.

membengal
06-13-2007, 12:12 PM
No. But the owner could pump up the kids and sell his product as fresh and new. It IS possible to retool and still sell excitment (and tickets)...

IslandRed
06-13-2007, 12:18 PM
No. But the owner could pump up the kids and sell his product as fresh and new. It IS possible to retool and still sell excitment (and tickets)...

And I'm sure that's exactly what will happen if there's a re-tooling. I just don't see the benefit of running up the white flag until there's a re-tooling to announce.

KoryMac5
06-13-2007, 12:23 PM
I really think Cast puts the brakes on any deals being done until he sees the standings at the AS break.

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 12:30 PM
That reminds me of a couple of years ago, when the Reds were tanking hard in the second half and O'Brien answered a question about it by stating that the club was still waiting on Jason Romano and Anderson Machado to come back.

What a difference they made.

That exactly what I thought of at first.

Still going to take a wait and see, but right now the plan looks to be the same as the Dan O and Bowden plan, we're "In it" and we just need to get some luck and get hot!

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 12:31 PM
Noooooooo! Stop it. Stop it. Just stop it. It's gone on long enough. This team has no friggin shot at making it into the playoffs let alone getting past the first round. Sell, Bob, sell!
We'll make some deal when we're mathematically eliminated in August :evil:

westofyou
06-13-2007, 12:36 PM
Sell, Bob, sell!

He's selling tickets, and probably wondering if you have been down yet.

And if he sells half the team what's gonna get you there there this summer?

That's what the businessman is asking, not how fast can he get those seats empty.

dabvu2498
06-13-2007, 12:40 PM
He's selling tickets, and probably wondering if you have been down yet.

And if he sells half the team what's gonna get you there there this summer?

That's what the businessman is asking, not how fast can he get those seats empty.

So Bob's ok with the status quo so long as his team's not last in the league in attendance?

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 12:47 PM
So Bob's ok with the status quo so long as his team's not last in the league in attendance?

Depends on what kind of owner he is, does he want to win it all, or is he just a happy camper if the team is not losing money.

Yet to be seen.

Caveat Emperor
06-13-2007, 12:50 PM
No. But the owner could pump up the kids and sell his product as fresh and new. It IS possible to retool and still sell excitment (and tickets)...

This city is future-weary. They've had two franchise that have spent the majority of the last 15 years promising the future would be bright.

You can sell the city on promising young talent -- but don't try to dump a spoonful of sugar on Phil Dumatrait or Elizardo Ramirez and tell people its desert.

M2
06-13-2007, 12:58 PM
This city is future-weary. They've had two franchise that have spent the majority of the last 15 years promising the future would be bright.

You can sell the city on promising young talent -- but don't try to dump a spoonful of sugar on Phil Dumatrait or Elizardo Ramirez and tell people its desert.

Bingo. I have no doubt the Reds could get plenty of fans in to watch a hard-working young team. It would certainly be more entertaining than what we've been forced to endure the past seven seasons. If only the franchise would get serious about putting together that kind of team.

westofyou
06-13-2007, 12:59 PM
So Bob's ok with the status quo so long as his team's not last in the league in attendance?

Before schools out for a week?

Yes.

When a deadline to deal assets is closing in?

Probably not.

However I just never expect any owner to pee in the drinking water.

Unless he's nutsy.

membengal
06-13-2007, 02:14 PM
This city is future-weary. They've had two franchise that have spent the majority of the last 15 years promising the future would be bright.

You can sell the city on promising young talent -- but don't try to dump a spoonful of sugar on Phil Dumatrait or Elizardo Ramirez and tell people its desert.

I don't want that, CE. But I do want Votto up to join Bailey. And IF Dunn or Jr. are moved, I am presuming some young studly major league ready young talent will be the return, and you sell THAT along with Votto and Bailey. And you put a positive spin on EE's maturation. And you extol the virtues of Brandon Phillips. And you beam as often as you can in the direction of Josh Hamilton.

There IS stuff to be excited about here, and a way to pump up the anticipation and enjoyment of the product, even if they are re-tooling. I don't mean re-tooling in a pejorative sense, either. It can be done in a way that infuses the franchise with genuine talent and, given the state of the NL Central, might mean that the hypothetical winning won't be put so far off into the future either...

KoryMac5
06-13-2007, 02:58 PM
I don't understand why Votto can't come up here and play left and move Dunn to 1st base. Every team in the NL that would be willing to deal for Dunn would move him to 1st by all accounts.

pedro
06-13-2007, 02:59 PM
I don't understand why Votto can't come up here and play left and move Dunn to 1st base. Every team in the NL that would be willing to deal for Dunn would move him to 1st by all accounts.

Because Votto might be a worse LF than Dunn from what I've heard.

BRM
06-13-2007, 02:59 PM
I don't understand why Votto can't come up here and play left and move Dunn to 1st base. Every team in the NL that would be willing to deal for Dunn would move him to 1st by all accounts.

Someone reported on the Minor League forum awhile back that Votto looked terrible in LF. Worse than Dunn terrible. I'll have to try to dig up the post.

M2
06-13-2007, 03:01 PM
Because Votto might be a worse LF than Dunn from what I've heard.

Seeing that he's barely ever played the position you could almost guarantee he'd be worse. Votto's been developed as a 1B, that's where he should play.

jojo
06-13-2007, 03:10 PM
Seeing that he's barely ever played the position you could almost guarantee he'd be worse. Votto's been developed as a 1B, that's where he should play.

Also, Votto is not even a good defensive firstbaseman.

M2
06-13-2007, 03:12 PM
Also, Votto is not even a good defensive firstbaseman.

Certainly not the sort you'd want to move left on the defensive scale.

IslandRed
06-13-2007, 03:25 PM
As for me, if teams want to deal for Dunn thinking they can move him to first base, let them keep thinking that. I don't want to stick him over there with no prep and have him flop around and have those teams think "oooh, that's not gonna work."

KronoRed
06-13-2007, 03:35 PM
Seeing that he's barely ever played the position you could almost guarantee he'd be worse. Votto's been developed as a 1B, that's where he should play.

Indeed, and Hatteberg shuld be dealt soon to open a spot for Votto, if Bailey is "ready" then so is Votto.

Ron Madden
06-14-2007, 02:51 AM
Indeed, and Hatteberg shuld be dealt soon to open a spot for Votto, if Bailey is "ready" then so is Votto.

Considering the sad state of the NL Central Division, I understand the fact that "it aint over 'till it's over". However I believe that both Homer Bailey and Joey Votto have the talent and are deserving of spots on the 25 man roster.

Let's roll the dice with some young talent for a change. If it dosn't work this year what the hell? It may even help the future.

mth123
06-14-2007, 05:37 AM
One possibility that I really never considered is that the team simply brings back Hatte in 2008 and lets Votto play LF. The Reds have an option for 2008 on Hatte for $1.85 Million. I'm not thrilled with the idea of Hatte at 1B, but based on what he's done this year, that is still a pretty good bargain for a small market team. I have to wonder if the "thrifty" route of Votto in LF and Hatte at 1B with some young talent and lots of freed up cash for Dunn might not be on WK's agenda.

BRM
06-14-2007, 09:16 AM
Wayne can't possibly be serious about winning with defense if he plans to put Votto in LF and leaving Hat at 1B next season. If you want to keep Hatteberg around, let him have Javy's role next year as the primary pinch-hitter. He can have a start or two a week at 1B as well. 1B should be Joey Votto's next season.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2007, 09:19 AM
Wayne can't possibly be serious about winning with defense if he plans to put Votto in LF and leaving Hat at 1B next season. If you want to keep Hatteberg around, let him have Javy's role next year as the primary pinch-hitter. He can have a start or two a week at 1B as well. 1B should be Joey Votto's next season.

That would be my take too.

Cooper
06-14-2007, 09:43 AM
This may have been stated -it's a long thread....Votto needs time to adjust to a new league. Everytime he's been moved up, he's had to have some adjustment time. That may just be bad luck or purely psychological, but it has been true none the less.

Knowing that. Let's get him that adjustment time this year while there isn't a great deal of things on the line. Same goes for all those AA and AAA arms. Let's get them some time in the bullpen.

Benihana
06-14-2007, 10:06 AM
This may have been stated -it's a long thread....Votto needs time to adjust to a new league. Everytime he's been moved up, he's had to have some adjustment time. That may just be bad luck or purely psychological, but it has been true none the less.

Knowing that. Let's get him that adjustment time this year while there isn't a great deal of things on the line. Same goes for all those AA and AAA arms. Let's get them some time in the bullpen.

Agreed. Hatteberg, Weathers, Stanton, et.al should traded as soon as possible. Let Votto, Coffey, McBeth, Coutlangous, Burton, and Bray play to see who can stick for next year and beyond.

Sea Ray
06-14-2007, 10:48 AM
comparison at Low A Dayton

Bruce 490 PA/106K
Dunn 540 PA/101K


Dunn is unusual in that he doubled his strikeouts after reaching the majors. Dunn never projected as a 45 HR, 200 K guy as a minor leaguer. I bet you'll find a lot of minor leaguers who'll strike out one out of every 5 PA but none of them will strike out 200 times in the majors. Dunn is the exception

KronoRed
06-14-2007, 02:05 PM
1B should be Joey Votto's next season.

1B should be his right now.

But..we have too many lefties ;)

mth123
06-14-2007, 10:03 PM
Wayne can't possibly be serious about winning with defense if he plans to put Votto in LF and leaving Hat at 1B next season. If you want to keep Hatteberg around, let him have Javy's role next year as the primary pinch-hitter. He can have a start or two a week at 1B as well. 1B should be Joey Votto's next season.

I agree that Votto should be the 1B, but the cheap route wouldn't surprise me.

My guess is that a little LF in the instructional league or winter ball will make Votto at least as good as Dunn is now and Hatte is better at 1B than Votto. So Votto LF/Hatte 1B is probably a better defensive combo than Dunn LF /Votto 1B.

Besides, if I had to pick a spot to have poor defense it wouldn't be 1B. There is a difference between hiding a poor defender at 1B because he's at least capable of doing the things a 1B needs to and actually having poor defensive play at 1B (which the reports on Votto suggest). Poor defense at 1B is much more harmful than poor defense in LF.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2007, 10:03 PM
With Boston choking away their AL East lead, we've got two more franchises vying for the Reds' services.

REDREAD
06-14-2007, 10:13 PM
does it really matter at this point?

The big question to me is whether the Reds can get more for Dunn on the trade market or whether they'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Either way I don't see them picking up his option.


The sticky thing here is that in order to get the draft pick, the Reds would have to offer Dunn arb. He'd probably easily get more than 13 million in arb. Dunn seems content to hang around. I think there's a real possiblity he'd accept arb. It's not unlike when the Braves offered Maddux arb, and Maddux surprised them by accepting it and taking them to the cleaners.

IMO, the options are to trade Dunn in July or pick up the option and sort it out next year.

blumj
06-14-2007, 11:14 PM
With Boston choking away their AL East lead, we've got two more franchises vying for the Reds' services.
You couldn't have put that a little more gently just for my sake? :( Seriously, I bet Boston is quite interested in Weathers. I don't see much of a fit for anyone else, but you never know with them.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2007, 11:28 PM
You couldn't have put that a little more gently just for my sake? :( Seriously, I bet Boston is quite interested in Weathers. I don't see much of a fit for anyone else, but you never know with them.

I'd still wager they're interested in Dunn. They'd be smart to pick him up. Not really sure what Boston has that is on the cusp of being MLB ready.

M2
06-14-2007, 11:52 PM
blumj, could we have Jacoby Ellsbury? Pretty please?

blumj
06-15-2007, 12:11 AM
blumj, could we have Jacoby Ellsbury? Pretty please?
I would, but Theo took away my trading rights after I gave away Cla Meredith. He didn't appreciate that. :laugh:

pedro
06-15-2007, 02:33 AM
The sticky thing here is that in order to get the draft pick, the Reds would have to offer Dunn arb. He'd probably easily get more than 13 million in arb. Dunn seems content to hang around. I think there's a real possiblity he'd accept arb. It's not unlike when the Braves offered Maddux arb, and Maddux surprised them by accepting it and taking them to the cleaners.

IMO, the options are to trade Dunn in July or pick up the option and sort it out next year.

He's not arb eligible. This is his FA year if the Reds don't exercise the option.

Ltlabner
06-15-2007, 06:57 AM
I'd still wager they're interested in Dunn. They'd be smart to pick him up. Not really sure what Boston has that is on the cusp of being MLB ready.

JD Drew?

NJReds
06-15-2007, 09:50 AM
JD Drew?

...or Wily Mo Pena. ;)

blumj
06-15-2007, 10:02 AM
...or Wily Mo Pena.
For?

NJReds
06-15-2007, 10:05 AM
For?

For Dunn. But I'm kidding.

M2
06-15-2007, 10:19 AM
Not really sure what Boston has that is on the cusp of being MLB ready.

They've actually got some interesting folks in AAA.

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - .299/.380/.388 in AAA, .452/.518/.644 in AA. Leadoff hitter from the Johnny Damon mold. He hasn't gone yard this year (which is of concern), though he went deep 7 times last year. 25 thefts this season, 3 CS.

Brandon Moss, RF - .303/.404/.550. Has seen his prospect star rise and fall in recent years, but he's only 23 and if he could produce like he is at the moment in majors (19 doubles, 12 HR, 48 RBI), then he'd be a solid RF.

George Kottaras, C - .207/.289/.307. He's having an awful year, but he's a 24-year-old with a solid track record - .283/.383/.450 - heading into this season. AAA has foiled him so far, but it might be a chance to grab a talent player while he's struggling.

Kason Gabbard, LHP - 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. He's a 25-year-old, 6'3" southpaw whose K rates have improved in recent years and now his BB rate is dropping (2.86, down from a career 3.86 mark). Keeps the ball down too, 2.40 G/F, 3.04 last year. If his control has moved up a tick, he could be a sleeper, though that comes with the caveat that most pitchers in AAA right now, even the ones who will make it, probably won't be effective major leaguers until 2009.

David Pauley, RHP - 3.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. Turns 24 on Sunday and seemingly took a step foward last season. Could use more of a K pitch (6.46 K/9 this season, 7.03 for his career though his K/BB is currently 3.00).

Manny Delcarmen, RH reliever - 3.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. 25-year-old hard thrower. Got into 50 major league games last year and didn't fare too well (5.06 ERA). If he could curb his BBs, he could probably be an effective reliever.

There's also Jon Lester, back from getting treated for cancer, and Clay Buchholz down in AA, where he's been one of the best pitchers in the minors this season.

IslandRed
06-15-2007, 10:56 AM
He's not arb eligible. This is his FA year if the Reds don't exercise the option.

A team can still offer arbitration to its players who are eligible for free agency. In fact, it must if it's going to get the compensation picks. The difference is, being eligible for free agency, Dunn would be under no obligation to accept.

Now, I'm assuming a team can still offer arbitration to a player even after declining to pick up an option year. I suppose there might be something buried in the CBA that says otherwise but I've never heard about it.

Joseph
06-15-2007, 10:59 AM
A team can still offer arbitration to its players who are eligible for free agency. In fact, it must if it's going to get the compensation picks. The difference is, being eligible for free agency, Dunn would be under no obligation to accept.

Now, I'm assuming a team can still offer arbitration to a player even after declining to pick up an option year. I suppose there might be something buried in the CBA that says otherwise but I've never heard about it.

Thats correct, I know either last year, or year before there was an option on Rich Aurilia and the Reds declined it yet offered him Arb. At least I think my memory is working. Anyway, I'm 99.9% certain it is allowable to decline options and offer arbitration.

IslandRed
06-15-2007, 11:04 AM
blumj, could we have Jacoby Ellsbury? Pretty please?

Yeah, pretty please? A high-OBP leadoff hitter, efficient base thief, good flychaser in center... if there are prospects in the minors whose skills are a better fit for what we need, it's a dadgum short list. I'm sure there's about zero chance the Sox deal him but we need to make a run at it anyway.

Az Red
06-15-2007, 11:05 AM
No reason to double post. Deleted.

pedro
06-15-2007, 11:06 AM
A team can still offer arbitration to its players who are eligible for free agency. In fact, it must if it's going to get the compensation picks. The difference is, being eligible for free agency, Dunn would be under no obligation to accept.

Now, I'm assuming a team can still offer arbitration to a player even after declining to pick up an option year. I suppose there might be something buried in the CBA that says otherwise but I've never heard about it.

Thanks. I brain farted.

lollipopcurve
06-15-2007, 11:21 AM
Those demands were considered too hefty for a player whose $13-million option for 2008 would be voided if he's traded, meaning he could become a free agent after this season.

So far, media coverage of Dunn's availability is ignoring the possibility that teams could acquire him contingent on his signing an extension. Teams that needs LH power in its prime, not just now, but for next year and beyond -- and that's a lot of teams -- should be looking at Dunn now. Meanwhile, the Reds should be asking for a return based on the assumption that the team will get a window to extend Dunn.

In other words, Krivsky should be telling teams that he only wants to negotiate with them if they want the window -- if they say they're looking for a rental, that should end the discussion. He can always deal him as a rental next year -- after the Reds have picked up the option. So, Krivsky should be asking for a very nice return now, because the offer should be for a chance to get several years of Dunn more or less in his prime.

M2
06-15-2007, 11:30 AM
So far, media coverage of Dunn's availability is ignoring the possibility that teams could acquire him contingent on his signing an extension. Teams that needs LH power in its prime, not just now, but for next year and beyond -- and that's a lot of teams -- should be looking at Dunn now. Meanwhile, the Reds should be asking for a return based on the assumption that the team will get a window to extend Dunn.

In other words, Krivsky should be telling teams that he only wants to negotiate with them if they want the window -- if they say they're looking for a rental, that should end the discussion. He can always deal him as a rental next year -- after the Reds have picked up the option. So, Krivsky should be asking for a very nice return now, because the offer should be for a chance to get several years of Dunn more or less in his prime.

I couldn't agree more.

pedro
06-15-2007, 11:35 AM
So far, media coverage of Dunn's availability is ignoring the possibility that teams could acquire him contingent on his signing an extension. Teams that needs LH power in its prime, not just now, but for next year and beyond -- and that's a lot of teams -- should be looking at Dunn now. Meanwhile, the Reds should be asking for a return based on the assumption that the team will get a window to extend Dunn.

In other words, Krivsky should be telling teams that he only wants to negotiate with them if they want the window -- if they say they're looking for a rental, that should end the discussion. He can always deal him as a rental next year -- after the Reds have picked up the option. So, Krivsky should be asking for a very nice return now, because the offer should be for a chance to get several years of Dunn more or less in his prime.


That's an excellent point.

KoryMac5
06-15-2007, 11:51 AM
I would really throw the Yankees into the Dunn mix. If Giambi is suspended by MLB which it looks like is a real possibility the Yankees will be looking for some lefty power. The Reds did have scouts at a recent Yankee game according to the Newark Star Ledger.

dabvu2498
06-15-2007, 11:58 AM
I would really throw the Yankees into the Dunn mix. If Giambi is suspended by MLB which it looks like is a real possibility the Yankees will be looking for some lefty power. The Reds did have scouts at a recent Yankee game according to the Newark Star Ledger.

Hatteberg is a pretty good fit there as well.

Az Red
06-15-2007, 12:02 PM
I believe Dunn is on the 'market' and we are hearing the beginning of the offers being tossed around. WK is smart to ask for the sun, moon, and stars. Let the Angels say 'no', but wait until they hear the A's are making offers. Bring the Yankees into the bidding war, too. I can only see the price for Dunn going up, as lollipop says, any team that really wants Dunn this year can re-negotiate.

jojo
06-15-2007, 12:05 PM
I believe Dunn is on the 'market' and we are hearing the beginning of the offers being tossed around. WK is smart to ask for the sun, moon, and stars. Let the Angels say 'no', but wait until they hear the A's are making offers. Bring the Yankees into the bidding war, too. I can only see the price for Dunn going up, as lollipop says, any team that really wants Dunn this year can re-negotiate.

EDIT: A lot of fans are going to be disappointed by the return for Dunn IMHO....

Sorry if the original comment was over the top-it wasn't meant the way that I'm afraid others might easily misinterpret it....

pedro
06-15-2007, 12:09 PM
mmmmmm the koolaid tastes so good.... :D

I know you're joking but I absolutely hate that koolaid comment as it is akin to calling someone a moron IMO.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 12:11 PM
I know you're joking but I absolutely hate that koolaid comment as it is akin to calling someone a moron IMO.

I have no clue what the koolaid comment means? A little help? (Weirdly coded stuff like this is every bit as bad as poor grammar, IMHO.)

pedro
06-15-2007, 12:12 PM
I have no clue what the koolaid comment means? A little help?


It's a reference to jonestown.

it's a way of telling someone they are deluded.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 12:13 PM
It's a reference to jonestown.

I know that--but what the hell is it in reference to on this thread? Gah, I hate it when antecedents aren't correctly referenced!!!

pedro
06-15-2007, 12:14 PM
I know that--but what the hell is it in reference to on this thread? Gah, I hate it when antecedents aren't correctly referenced!!!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1385377&postcount=343

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 12:16 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1385377&postcount=343

I see that. It's his post, but what about Az. Red's post is jojo insulting? I find nothing particularly koolaid-ish about his quote.

Can you tell? Cuz I can't. (And I'm not getting mad at you pedro at all--I just don't understand what jojo's joking about--trust me I'm trying really hard.)

pedro
06-15-2007, 12:21 PM
I see that. It's his post, but what about Az. Red's post is jojo insulting? I find nothing particularly koolaid-ish about his quote.

Can you tell? Cuz I can't. (And I'm not getting mad at you pedro at all--I just don't understand what jojo's joking about--trust me I'm trying really hard.)

IMO he was basically calling AS Red "deluded" for believing that Dunn has any real trade value.

Honestly, I don't really think he was joking. I was just trying to be somewhat nice about it.

It's really no big deal. "koolaid" is just up there with "apologists" as words I'd rather not see used on RZ right now.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 12:23 PM
IMO he was basically calling AS Red "deluded" for believing that Dunn has any real trade value.

Honestly, I don't really think he was joking. I was just trying to be somewhat nice about it.

It's really no big deal. "koolaid" is just up there with "apologists" as words I'd rather not see used on RZ right now.

Ah. Okay. And I agree with you.

GAC
06-15-2007, 12:33 PM
does it really matter at this point?

The big question to me is whether the Reds can get more for Dunn on the trade market or whether they'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Either way I don't see them picking up his option.

Not wanting to pick up that 13 Mil option is why I think he will be dealt.

Jr? IMHO, not right away. They still need someone to bring people to the stadium. Even for a crummy team.

I also read last week - and I'm not advocating it either - that Penny wants out of LA.

Unassisted
06-15-2007, 12:39 PM
LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angrep15jun15,1,5018978.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-mlb-angels&ctrack=1&cset=true) says the Angels have balked at a deal for Dunn. I'm shocked to read that Wayne is asking for so much in return.



The Angels had preliminary discussions with Cincinnati about acquiring Dunn, according to a baseball source, but those talks quickly ended when the Reds requested a proven major league starting pitcher, a major league infielder — preferably a second baseman — and a top prospect.

Those demands were considered too hefty for a player whose $13-million option for 2008 would be voided if he's traded, meaning he could become a free agent after this season. The Angels probably wouldn't even trade second baseman Howie Kendrick for Dunn straight up, according to the source.

blumj
06-15-2007, 12:46 PM
It's early. Everyone's prices are high.

CrackerJack
06-15-2007, 12:57 PM
Why in the world is Krivsky asking for a 2nd baseman?

blumj
06-15-2007, 12:59 PM
Why in the world is Krivsky asking for a 2nd baseman?
Probably just because the Angels happen to have a very good, young one.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 01:00 PM
Angels wouldn't trade Howie Kendrick for Dunn straight up? :laugh:

Yeah, I know I want to acquire a guy with a Ronnie Belliard ceiling for Dunn.

I'm sorry that is just asinine.

GMs hunting position players at the deadline want, primarily, one thing: power. There is a reason that young baseball position players risk their health--their very lives--by putting steroids in their bodies and it ain't the photo shoots. And Dunn, with his natural power, has the ability to single-handedly transform a game (a series) with his bat. The guy is always one flick of the wrist from clearing the bases. GMs love guys like that, and they particularly love having guys like that in their lineup in a short series.

GMs will pay for Adam Dunn. If Wayne knows what he is doing, he will get very nice things in return for him.

westofyou
06-15-2007, 01:02 PM
Why in the world is Krivsky asking for a 2nd baseman?

Because he's a scout and Howie is damn good with the tools a scout loves, an asset is an asset.

smith288
06-15-2007, 01:03 PM
Why in the world is Krivsky asking for a 2nd baseman?
Maybe move Phillips to SS after we are done with Gonzo?

jojo
06-15-2007, 01:11 PM
I know you're joking but I absolutely hate that koolaid comment as it is akin to calling someone a moron IMO.


I edited the post. Thanks for pointing it out. :beerme:

Az Red
06-15-2007, 01:20 PM
I edited the post. Thanks for pointing it out. :beerme:

jojo, No sense in editing your opinion. No insult taken. Different POV is welcome. I think Dunn is the most valuable player 'on the market'. His ability to change a game with one swing will bring teams to the table. WK plays smart, he can drive the maket up. Supply and Demand, Baby!!!!

jojo
06-15-2007, 01:20 PM
I see that. It's his post, but what about Az. Red's post is jojo insulting? I find nothing particularly koolaid-ish about his quote.

Can you tell? Cuz I can't. (And I'm not getting mad at you pedro at all--I just don't understand what jojo's joking about--trust me I'm trying really hard.)

I was referencing the notion that there will be a bidding war for Dunn. From my recent posts on the subject, it's clear that I don't share similar optimism. Unfortunately the post in question wasn't one that I'm particularly proud of and frankly shouldn't have been posted in hind sight. I wasn't intending to insult AZ Red and I sincerely apologize if it was offensive. I've since edited it.

dabvu2498
06-15-2007, 01:21 PM
I was referencing the notion that there will be a bidding war for Dunn. From my recent posts on the subject, it's clear that I don't share similar optimism. Unfortunately the post in question wasn't one that I'm particularly proud of and frankly shouldn't have been posted in hind sight. I wasn't intending to insult AZ Red and I sincerely apologize if it was offensive. I've since edited it.

Trying to do your best Marty impression? ;)

jojo
06-15-2007, 01:33 PM
jojo, No sense in editing your opinion. No insult taken. Different POV is welcome. I think Dunn is the most valuable player 'on the market'. His ability to change a game with one swing will bring teams to the table. WK plays smart, he can drive the maket up. Supply and Demand, Baby!!!!

Thanks and here's to hoping you're right!

:beerme:

smith288
06-15-2007, 01:40 PM
Its not so much what Adam's "worth" is on the market. Outside all the variables of opposing teams blocking or competing with the Dunn sweepstakes, Dunn is probably worth a good near ready starting pitcher and mid level position player especially with his contract.

The real worth comes in when you have multiple teams joining the Dunn sweepstakes. Leaks to the press about the Angels having interest thus involving the A's to either block the trade or to get adam themselves.

Of course there is the Yankee's effect which could serve to drive up everyones willingness to pay.

Adam isnt worth as much as I imagine Krivsky's asking and might ultimately receive. But the news sure pleases me we are asking for the world right now.

redsmetz
06-15-2007, 01:56 PM
Its not so much what Adam's "worth" is on the market. Outside all the variables of opposing teams blocking or competing with the Dunn sweepstakes, Dunn is probably worth a good near ready starting pitcher and mid level position player especially with his contract.

The real worth comes in when you have multiple teams joining the Dunn sweepstakes. Leaks to the press about the Angels having interest thus involving the A's to either block the trade or to get adam themselves.

Of course there is the Yankee's effect which could serve to drive up everyones willingness to pay.

Adam isnt worth as much as I imagine Krivsky's asking and might ultimately receive. But the news sure pleases me we are asking for the world right now.

I think you're absolutely right. I think WK's saying to the world, if you want him, you'll have to bowl us over. He's not looking to move Dunn just to do something. I eliminates, I think, the notion that a Dunn trade might be for something to try to put us over the top - if it occurs, it will be for the long term. Whether he'll get it, I don't know, but we should be aiming high.

I think too it means we don't necessarily want to trade Dunn (hence the contract structure), but we'll do so for our price.

CrackerJack
06-15-2007, 01:57 PM
Maybe move Phillips to SS after we are done with Gonzo?

That's the only explanation I can think of - but why such a high priority in a trade, for something that would be what, at least 2 seasons away?

I understand WOY's point also - an asset is an asset - but the way it was worded "preferably a 2nd baseman," didn't really give me the impression they were targeting a specific player, rather a position.

It still doesn't make a lot of sense at all. The Reds also have a very good, young 2nd baseman. Surely there are other priorities - unless the Reds are dead set on acquiring a major league ready, young SS (be it from the Angels or moving BP over).

Dunno, still think it's odd.

jojo
06-15-2007, 02:00 PM
Its not so much what Adam's "worth" is on the market. Outside all the variables of opposing teams blocking or competing with the Dunn sweepstakes, Dunn is probably worth a good near ready starting pitcher and mid level position player especially with his contract.

The real worth comes in when you have multiple teams joining the Dunn sweepstakes. Leaks to the press about the Angels having interest thus involving the A's to either block the trade or to get adam themselves.

Of course there is the Yankee's effect which could serve to drive up everyones willingness to pay.

Adam isnt worth as much as I imagine Krivsky's asking and might ultimately receive. But the news sure pleases me we are asking for the world right now.

Here's the thing though IMHO. Dunn's bat is only 11th best for a left fielder in the majors as judged by VORP. Factor in his defense (which decreases his value) and he's basically an average run-of-the-mill major league left fielder who is due $13.5M next season (or some rough equivalent if a team gets him to tear up his contract in lieu of an extension). If he was a DH, he'd only be the 6th best DH bat in the AL-again pretty close to average.

I can't believe the market could be blazing for an average player who'll expect to be paid like a top tier one. It's very possible that his greatest trade value is as a rent a player and those typically don't bring tremendous value in return. Maybe a team goes for broke this season and the Reds get one player that has a chance to be an impact guy for them. That just seems like a big maybe to me right now.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 02:01 PM
Here's the thing though IMHO. Dunn's bat is only 11th best for a left fielder in the majors as judged by VORP. Factor in his defense (which decreases his value) and he's basically an average run-of-the-mill major league left fielder who is due $13.5M next season (or some rough equivalent if a team gets him to tear up his contract in lieu of an extension). If he was a DH, he'd only be the 6th best DH bat in the AL-again pretty close to average.

I can't believe the market could be blazing for an average player who'll expect to be paid like a top tier one. It's very possible that his greatest trade value is as a rent a player and those typically don't bring tremendous value in return. Maybe a team goes for broke this season and the Reds get one player that has a chance to be an impact guy for them. That just seems like a big maybe to me right now.

This thinking presupposes that every GM has access to every player, including all the players above Dunn in offensive categories.

Dunn's available. Not every other player is. I imagine Dunn will be among the top 3 offensive players moving by the deadline.

pedro
06-15-2007, 02:05 PM
Angels wouldn't trade Howie Kendrick for Dunn straight up? :laugh:

Yeah, I know I want to acquire a guy with a Ronnie Belliard ceiling for Dunn.

I'm sorry that is just asinine.

GMs hunting position players at the deadline want, primarily, one thing: power. There is a reason that young baseball position players risk their health--their very lives--by putting steroids in their bodies and it ain't the photo shoots. And Dunn, with his natural power, has the ability to single-handedly transform a game (a series) with his bat. The guy is always one flick of the wrist from clearing the bases. GMs love guys like that, and they particularly love having guys like that in their lineup in a short series.

GMs will pay for Adam Dunn. If Wayne knows what he is doing, he will get very nice things in return for him.

Howie Kendrick has way more upside than Ronnie Belliard

Look at his minor league stats. the dude can hit.


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS

Minor League Totals - 5 Season(s) 361 1475 317 533 119 27 45 249 73 26 76 190 40 3 8 13 23 .361 .405 .570 975

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 02:07 PM
Howie Kendrick has way more upside than Ronnie Belliard

Look at his minor league stats. the dude can hit.


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS

Minor League Totals - 5 Season(s) 361 1475 317 533 119 27 45 249 73 26 76 190 40 3 8 13 23 .361 .405 .570 975

So could Brandon Larson.

In AAA. So far, Kendrick's shown himself to be more Pokey Reese than Ronnie Belliard. He's 24--not exactly a baby anymore either.

Still, Kendrick would have to be the reincarnation of Joe Morgan to make trading Dunn for him (straight up) worthwhile. This organization simply cannot trade Dunn for the limited return that Kendrick represents. I'd rather they go for quantity in that case.

pedro
06-15-2007, 02:18 PM
So could Brandon Larson.

In AAA. So far, Kendrick's shown himself to be more Pokey Reese than Ronnie Belliard. He's 24--not exactly a baby anymore either.

Still, Kendrick would have to be the reincarnation of Joe Morgan to make trading Dunn for him (straight up) worthwhile. This organization simply cannot trade Dunn for the limited return that Kendrick represents. I'd rather they go for quantity in that case.

I'm not advocating trading Dunn straight up for Kendrick but Kendrick had a much better minor league career than Larson (+100 OPS) and plays a skill position (2B) fairly well. Larson OTOH, couldn't catch a cold and had the footwork of Elaine Benez.

jojo
06-15-2007, 02:21 PM
This thinking presupposes that every GM has access to every player, including all the players above Dunn in offensive categories.

Dunn's available. Not every other player is. I imagine Dunn will be among the top 3 offensive players moving by the deadline.

No. My argument presupposes that every GM would take a serious pause before committing a long term deal (i.e. the trade and extend scenario) to a guy for tens of millions to basically upgrade their deficiency to league average-especially if there is a considerable talent price tag up front in addition to the financial commitment. While the next three months present somewhat limited options for a team looking for upgrades, this offseason certainly won't.

smith288
06-15-2007, 02:23 PM
Here's the thing though IMHO. Dunn's bat is only 11th best for a left fielder in the majors as judged by VORP. Factor in his defense (which decreases his value) and he's basically an average run-of-the-mill major league left fielder who is due $13.5M next season (or some rough equivalent if a team gets him to tear up his contract in lieu of an extension). If he was a DH, he'd only be the 6th best DH bat in the AL-again pretty close to average.

I can't believe the market could be blazing for an average player who'll expect to be paid like a top tier one. It's very possible that his greatest trade value is as a rent a player and those typically don't bring tremendous value in return. Maybe a team goes for broke this season and the Reds get one player that has a chance to be an impact guy for them. That just seems like a big maybe to me right now.
I know all that.

A) Dunn's available
B) The market drives up his worth, not his VORP.

I dont think GM who are on the hunt for a power hitting lefty who can DH, play LF or 1B are saying to themselves, "Hmm...would love to have him and give up a good deal, but that VORP...We should try for the previous 11 guys who arent necessarily available plus cant get OB as much plus is coming from a team who has needs we can give..."

jojo
06-15-2007, 02:24 PM
Still, Kendrick would have to be the reincarnation of Joe Morgan to make trading Dunn for him (straight up) worthwhile. This organization simply cannot trade Dunn for the limited return that Kendrick represents. I'd rather they go for quantity in that case.

The writing seems to be on the wall regarding Dunn....the Reds don't want to pick up his option. Trading 3 months of Dunn for Kendrick would be an absolute steal for Krivsky-even if Kendrick never hits his ceiling. Krivsky would win the value for value aspect and it wouldn't really even be close.

pedro
06-15-2007, 02:26 PM
I like Kendrick a lot. I had the opportunity to see him play here in Portland and I think he'd going to very good. If the Reds did trade for him I certainly wouldn't be disappointed.

Chip R
06-15-2007, 02:36 PM
That's the only explanation I can think of - but why such a high priority in a trade, for something that would be what, at least 2 seasons away?

I understand WOY's point also - an asset is an asset - but the way it was worded "preferably a 2nd baseman," didn't really give me the impression they were targeting a specific player, rather a position.

It still doesn't make a lot of sense at all. The Reds also have a very good, young 2nd baseman. Surely there are other priorities - unless the Reds are dead set on acquiring a major league ready, young SS (be it from the Angels or moving BP over).

Dunno, still think it's odd.


Brandon's only going to be cheap for 1 more year, if that. Arbitration eligibility could send his price skyrocketing. Back in 99 we thought Pokey would be a Red forever. That only lasted a couple 3 more years.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 02:44 PM
The writing seems to be on the wall regarding Dunn....the Reds don't want to pick up his option. Trading 3 months of Dunn for Kendrick would be an absolute steal for Krivsky-even if Kendrick never hits his ceiling. Krivsky would win the value for value aspect and it wouldn't really even be close.

I totally disagree with your take of the market. I think what Dunn represents to a team in the hunt for a pennant and a WS ring dwarfs Kendrick's worth in every conceivable way (even if it is only three months). Kendrick has done nothing at the MLB level. Exactly nothing. He's basically been Pokey Reese.

And if Dunn is the long-term albatross that you are making him out to be, I'd think that the minuscule size of his contract and the length of it would make him all the more appealing; a team could let him walk after the season.

I think Krivsky holds a ton of cards. He could trade Dunn, but he certainly doesn't have to. And he'd be an idiot to ask for a lesser amount.

CrackerJack
06-15-2007, 02:45 PM
Brandon's only going to be cheap for 1 more year, if that. Arbitration eligibility could send his price skyrocketing. Back in 99 we thought Pokey would be a Red forever. That only lasted a couple 3 more years.

Yet with the space they should receive by losing Dunn and Milton alone, not sure why they'd be so concerned about BP's arbitration at this point? (let alone Jr. in a year or two, if not sooner)

pedro
06-15-2007, 02:49 PM
This is an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's column on BP today. I'm not going to post the whole thing but here is the summary.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6356

Of those last three, both the Twins and Angels have the two GMs least likely to make a big move during the season, no matter how good the fit, so I like the Yankees' chances if they get involved. As is, Adam Dunn is going somewhere, and that somewhere is probably a contending team in the American League. As with all in-season pickups, the sooner the better for the team trading for the player, because they have to maximize the investment they’ll make. Dunn is a legitimate three- or four-win player across a half-season, and each of the five teams above has a replacement-level player they can excise from their lineup upon Dunn’s arrival. Normally, a midseason pickup is overrated; in this case, it truly could be the difference between playing 162 games and playing many more.

registerthis
06-15-2007, 02:59 PM
I totally disagree with your take of the market. I think what Dunn represents to a team in the hunt for a pennant and a WS ring dwarfs Kendrick's worth in every conceivable way (even if it is only three months).

The Brewers were able to obtain arguably one of the dominant relievers in the game for essentially 3 months of Carlos Lee last year--who went on to secure a contract around $19/mil per year, with numbers not dissimilar to Dunn's.

Dunn should be viewed as a relative bargain, and should also be highly coveted by any GM looking to add serious punch to their lineup. Krivsky could very well come away with a haul by unloading Dunn--the question is whether or not he will.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 02:59 PM
This is an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's column on BP today. I'm not going to post the whole thing but here is the summary.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6356

Of those last three, both the Twins and Angels have the two GMs least likely to make a big move during the season, no matter how good the fit, so I like the Yankees' chances if they get involved. As is, Adam Dunn is going somewhere, and that somewhere is probably a contending team in the American League. As with all in-season pickups, the sooner the better for the team trading for the player, because they have to maximize the investment they’ll make. Dunn is a legitimate three- or four-win player across a half-season, and each of the five teams above has a replacement-level player they can excise from their lineup upon Dunn’s arrival. Normally, a midseason pickup is overrated; in this case, it truly could be the difference between playing 162 games and playing many more.

Sheehan's take on some of the potential prospects that the Reds might get in return for Dunn are, well, curious. He pimps Dustin Moseley for criminy's sake. I'd rather eat worms than re-acquire that hit-lucky chump.

jojo
06-15-2007, 03:00 PM
I know all that.

A) Dunn's available
B) The market drives up his worth, not his VORP.

I dont think GM who are on the hunt for a power hitting lefty who can DH, play LF or 1B are saying to themselves, "Hmm...would love to have him and give up a good deal, but that VORP...We should try for the previous 11 guys who arent necessarily available plus cant get OB as much plus is coming from a team who has needs we can give..."

Lets put it this way. Smart GMs (or really GMs that want to keep their jobs) weigh a player's cost of production against the cost of achieving similar production other ways. While it's true the market drives a player's worth, it doesn't make average players worth top tier ones. To suggest that Dunn will bring back a substantial return assumes somewhere a GM is willing to both give up valuable talent AND make a significant financial commitment to a guy that most FO's in baseball see as a bat that has trended downward each of the last three seasons. That seems pretty optimistic to me. Dunn is basically a poor series away from having a SLG below .500 for the year. That's a flag for a guy whose value solely rests upon his power during a trade market. If you believe the trade grapevine of the past few years, the Reds couldn't get the kind of significant bites on Dunn that are being hinted at by some now-before Dunn's '06 swoon. Just for some perspective, right now Adam Jones (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Adam%2520Jones&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430945) probably has five times the trade value as Adam Dunn. I may be wrong about Dunn's trade value (obviously I only have an opinion not a crystal ball) but I'll have to see it to believe it on this issue.

BTW, it's safe to assume every FO in the major leagues has a subscription to BP.

IslandRed
06-15-2007, 03:00 PM
I just read that article, pedro. He certainly make a good case for Dunn being THE prime target of the trading season.

I wondered, though, about his comment that said:


To his discredit, Krivsky is again largely focused on adding a reliever, particularly a closer, in a Dunn deal.

I haven't heard that and it doesn't match up with the other rumors we've heard, like the Angels one from upthread. Which makes me think that there's a lot of smoke and disinformation being circulated already -- and that sort of thing usually indicates a bidding war, or at least the potential for one. We can only hope.

pedro
06-15-2007, 03:02 PM
I just read that article, pedro. He certainly make a good case for Dunn being THE prime target of the trading season.

I wondered, though, about his comment that said:



I haven't heard that and it doesn't match up with the other rumors we've heard, like the Angels one from upthread. Which makes me think that there's a lot of smoke and disinformation being circulated already -- and that sort of thing usually indicates a bidding war, or at least the potential for one. We can only hope.

I found that curious as well. Especially considering the piece about the angels and what WK was supposedly asking from them.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 03:04 PM
Lets put it this way. Smart GMs (or really GMs that want to keep their jobs) weigh a player's cost of production against the cost of achieving similar production other ways. While it's true the market drives a player's worth, it doesn't make average players worth top tier ones. To suggest that Dunn will bring back a substantial return assumes somewhere a GM is willing to both give up valuable talent AND make a significant financial commitment to a guy that most FO's in baseball see as a bat that has trended downward each of the last three seasons. That seems pretty optimistic to me. Dunn is basically a poor series away from having a SLG below .500 for the year. That's a flag for a guy whose value solely rests upon his power during a trade market. If you believe the trade grapevine of the past few years, the Reds couldn't get the kind of significant bites on Dunn that are being hinted at by some now-before Dunn's '06 swoon. Just for some perspective, right now Adam Jones (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Adam%2520Jones&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430945) probably has five times the trade value as Adam Dunn. I may be wrong about Dunn's trade value (obviously I only have an opinion not a crystal ball) but I'll have to see it to believe it on this issue.

BTW, it's safe to assume every FO in the major leagues has a subscription to BP.

Adam Jones--who has never swung a bat in the majors--is worth 5 times the trade value of Dunn? Wow.

Az Red
06-15-2007, 03:10 PM
This is an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's column on BP today. I'm not going to post the whole thing but here is the summary.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6356

Of those last three, both the Twins and Angels have the two GMs least likely to make a big move during the season, no matter how good the fit, so I like the Yankees' chances if they get involved. As is, Adam Dunn is going somewhere, and that somewhere is probably a contending team in the American League. As with all in-season pickups, the sooner the better for the team trading for the player, because they have to maximize the investment they’ll make. Dunn is a legitimate three- or four-win player across a half-season, and each of the five teams above has a replacement-level player they can excise from their lineup upon Dunn’s arrival. Normally, a midseason pickup is overrated; in this case, it truly could be the difference between playing 162 games and playing many more.


The smoke is getting thicker. Good find, Pedro.

dabvu2498
06-15-2007, 03:12 PM
Adam Jones--who has never swung a bat in the majors--is worth 5 times the trade value of Dunn? Wow.

He played in 32 games for Seattle last year. :)

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Adam-Jones.shtml

registerthis
06-15-2007, 03:12 PM
Adam Jones--who has never swung a bat in the majors--is worth 5 times the trade value of Dunn? Wow.

I don't believe I have ever seen a player undervalued as much as Dunn is. At least not in recent memory.

jojo
06-15-2007, 03:14 PM
This is an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's column on BP today. I'm not going to post the whole thing but here is the summary.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6356

Of those last three, both the Twins and Angels have the two GMs least likely to make a big move during the season, no matter how good the fit, so I like the Yankees' chances if they get involved. As is, Adam Dunn is going somewhere, and that somewhere is probably a contending team in the American League. As with all in-season pickups, the sooner the better for the team trading for the player, because they have to maximize the investment they’ll make. Dunn is a legitimate three- or four-win player across a half-season, and each of the five teams above has a replacement-level player they can excise from their lineup upon Dunn’s arrival. Normally, a midseason pickup is overrated; in this case, it truly could be the difference between playing 162 games and playing many more.

Sheehan has a very interesting opinion concerning Dunn's value. VORP is a BP stat and it suggests Dunn would be a 4 win bat over the course of the season (and Dunn is currently performing significantly below Pecota's 50th percentile projections). Dunn's 90th percentile projection predicts he'd be a 7 win bat over the course of the whole season. Considering that Dunn's defense lessens the impact of the contribution of Dunn's bat to wins, it's difficult to take Sheehan's valuation of Dunn seriously. Basically for Dunn to be a 4 win bat over half a season, he'd have to blow Pecota out of the water and Pecota's most optimistic projection (and least likely i.e. 90th percentile) is .293/.420/.658. I'm having trouble seeing where Sheehan gets his optimism.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 03:18 PM
He played in 32 games for Seattle last year. :)

Thank you. He was so good he stayed on the major league roster I see. :devil:

lollipopcurve
06-15-2007, 03:18 PM
Considering that Dunn's defense lessens the impact of the contribution of Dunn's bat to wins,

Well, if he goes to an AL team, as Sheehan thinks is likely, he'll likely DH much of the time.

NJReds
06-15-2007, 03:20 PM
FWIW, I think Dunn would be a monster in the Yankee lineup, but I don't think the Yanks will be in on this unless Damon goes down with an injury. They seem to like the lineup as-is with Damon at DH and Melky in CF.

I do think the Yankees would have interest in Conine or Hatteberg because they're currently playing Miguel Cairo at 1st base.

It seems that the Dodgers have the best possible match with the Reds in terms of young, major-league ready talent that fits the Reds biggest needs.

jojo
06-15-2007, 03:22 PM
Well, if he goes to an AL team, as Sheehan thinks is likely, he'll likely DH much of the time.

Describing Dunn as a 4 win bat over the course of 3 months is hyperbole IMHO-even if he DHs.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 03:23 PM
FWIW, I think Dunn would be a monster in the Yankee lineup, but I don't think the Yanks will be in on this unless Damon goes down with an injury. They seem to like the lineup as-is with Damon at DH and Melky in CF.

I do think the Yankees would have interest in Conine or Hatteberg because they're currently playing Miguel Cairo at 1st base.

It seems that the Dodgers have the best possible match with the Reds in terms of young, major-league ready talent that fits the Reds biggest needs.

And honestly, about the only thing I want out of the Yankees organization is Hughes, and they won't trade him, seeing as how they have such thin pitching, organization-wide.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 03:24 PM
Describing Dunn as a 4 win bat over the course of 3 months is hyperbole IMHO-even if he DHs.

Perhaps he's not, but not every GM thinks along BP lines--in fact, I would imagine only a minority of them think along those lines.

NJReds
06-15-2007, 03:29 PM
And honestly, about the only thing I want out of the Yankees organization is Hughes, and they won't trade him, seeing as how they have such thin pitching, organization-wide.

For Dunn, yes. But you might get something servicable for Hatt/Conine. Would you take back Farnsworth and cash for Hatt/Weathers? Edwar Ramirez (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Edwar%2520Ramirez&pos=P&sid=t531&t=p_pbp&pid=469735)(AAA) is intriguing as well.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 03:31 PM
For Dunn, yes. But you might get something servicable for Hatt/Conine. Would you take back Farnsworth and cash for Hatt/Weathers?

Probably not. Farnsworth is getting old and is pretty volatile, even for a reliever.

lollipopcurve
06-15-2007, 03:43 PM
Would you take back Farnsworth and cash for Hatt/Weathers?

I wouldn't take him for either one.

Chip R
06-15-2007, 03:59 PM
Yet with the space they should receive by losing Dunn and Milton alone, not sure why they'd be so concerned about BP's arbitration at this point? (let alone Jr. in a year or two, if not sooner)


It's not necessarily about the salary they save with Dunn and Milton gone, it's the value of Phillips. Back in April last year people were making fun of Wayne for acquiring Brandon. Lord knows we didn't need another 2nd baseman - especially one with supposed attitude problems who hadn't shown the ability to hit at the big league level. I'm not saying Brandon will go into the tank like Pokey did but stockpiling talent at a position isn't a bad thing. Mind you, I wouldn't target another 2nd baseman in a trade for Dunn but talent is talent no matter if it fits a need or not. Maybe someone else would want Kendrick or maybe you trade off Brandon if you think Kendrick can play in the majors.

blumj
06-15-2007, 04:02 PM
Please don't trade the Yankees any pitching, or do them the favor of taking Farnsworth off their hands. Thanks.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 04:06 PM
Please don't trade the Yankees any pitching, or do them the favor of taking Farnsworth off their hands. Thanks.

Send the Reds Lester and another minor league arm and it's a deal.

Benihana
06-15-2007, 04:13 PM
Send the Reds Lester and another minor league arm and it's a deal.

Lester for Dunn, dunn deal!!!!

blum, I'm guessing you say no?

blumj
06-15-2007, 04:15 PM
Send the Reds Lester and another minor league arm and it's a deal.
Sorry, Lester has the 23 year old recent cancer survivor no trade clause. Theo wouldn't last another 5 minutes in this town if he traded him. Totally aside from the fact that they're going to need him once Julian Tavarez stops pretending to be a half-decent starting pitcher. I'm still not buying that act.

Hoosier Red
06-15-2007, 04:44 PM
Lester for Dunn, dunn deal!!!!

blum, I'm guessing you say no?

Actually from where I read it, we don't have to give up anything. We just have to promise Boston we won't trade with the Yankees. How cool would it be if we could do that.

smith288
06-15-2007, 04:48 PM
Adam Jones--who has never swung a bat in the majors--is worth 5 times the trade value of Dunn? Wow.

Holy smokes, you and I agree.... :help:

Spitball
06-15-2007, 06:24 PM
It is hard to tell what the market will do from year to year, but if it is like last year, I'm betting Dunn doesn't get traded. Last year was different because of the free agency issues and the rumors about the players' association pressuring Lee and Soriano to drive up outfield salaries were floating out there. But, many of the same teams that were in the market last year are in the market this year. Detroit, Oakland, San diego, the Angels, the Dodgers, and Minnesota all chose not to over-pay in order to add a power hitting outfielder to their line-ups.

I know the only concrete offers Doug Melvin received from those clubs for Carlos Lee involved getting underwhelming minor-league prospects. The most promising was probably Humberto Sanchez from the Tigers, but his elbow problems were a concern.

The deal with Texas brought only Kevin Mench and Francisco Cordero, plus a couple of okay minor leaguers, but the Brewers also had to give up Nelson Cruz, their top outfield prospect. Cordero has turned out nicely, but at the time of the trade he had blown nine of fifteen save opportunities before losing his closer job for the Rangers.

I don't know exactly what happened with Soriano, but I'm guessing Bowden was expecting a king's ransom and was just plain underwhelmed with offers from mostly the same troop of would be traders in this year's market.

Plus, last year's market featured Soriano and Lee followed by Aubrey Huff types. This year's trade market could include names like Texiera, Dye, Helton, Berkman, Ensberg, Cabrera, Glaus, and maybe even Thome. There will be offers made for all of them, but I'm guessing the only one or two will move for anything but a discount price.

Falls City Beer
06-15-2007, 06:31 PM
It is hard to tell what the market will do from year to year, but if it is like last year, I'm betting Dunn doesn't get traded. Last year was different because of the free agency issues and the rumors about the players' association pressuring Lee and Soriano to drive up outfield salaries were floating out there. But, many of the same teams that were in the market last year are in the market this year. Detroit, Oakland, San diego, the Angels, the Dodgers, and Minnesota all chose not to over-pay in order to add a power hitting outfielder to their line-ups.

I know the only concrete offers Doug Melvin received from those clubs for Carlos Lee involved getting underwhelming minor-league prospects. The most promising was probably Humberto Sanchez from the Tigers, but his elbow problems were a concern.

The deal with Texas brought only Kevin Mench and Francisco Cordero, plus a couple of okay minor leaguers, but the Brewers also had to give up Nelson Cruz, their top outfield prospect. Cordero has turned out nicely, but at the time of the trade he had blown nine of fifteen save opportunities before losing his closer job for the Rangers.

I don't know exactly what happened with Soriano, but I'm guessing Bowden was expecting a king's ransom and was just plain underwhelmed with offers from mostly the same troop of would be traders in this year's market.

Plus, last year's market featured Soriano and Lee followed by Aubrey Huff types. This year's trade market could include names like Texiera, Dye, Helton, Berkman, Ensberg, Cabrera, Glaus, and maybe even Thome. There will be offers made for all of them, but I'm guessing the only one or two will move for anything but a discount price.

I don't think the Soriano comp is a good one; Dunn's not going to get Soriano money. And I seriously doubt that most of the names on your list will be available for trade this deadline. Maybe Helton, Glaus, and Ensberg (but no one's going to want Ensberg). Helton and Glaus are WAY past their primes.

pedro
06-15-2007, 06:32 PM
Helton also has 60 million left on his contract.

Spitball
06-15-2007, 07:29 PM
I don't think the Soriano comp is a good one; Dunn's not going to get Soriano money.

I didn't say this was a comparison. Reread my first paragraph.


And I seriously doubt that most of the names on your list will be available for trade this deadline. Maybe Helton, Glaus, and Ensberg (but no one's going to want Ensberg). Helton and Glaus are WAY past their primes.

Well, you might doubt, but they are names that have been mentioned in speculation. Like I said, I doubt many, if any, are actually lured away in trade.

jojo
06-15-2007, 08:38 PM
Thank you. He was so good he stayed on the major league roster I see. :devil:

First, Bavasi is well known for his philosophy of prematurely promoting players because he thinks that a player must fail before they reach their potential.

Second, Jones is a five tool player who has gold glove potential in center field-a premium defensive position. Half of his hits this season have been for extra bases. He's only 21 AND he's major league ready while being under control for the next six years. If Bavasi announced that Jones was on the market, he'd likely get a call from every FO in the majors. Jones would bring back bonafide major league talent including pitching. There might be 2 or 3 teams that seriously pursue a potential Dunn trade. The return he'd bring is uncertain (even amongst us reds fans it's a contentious issue) given he's either controlled for only 3 months or his new team would have to commit serious jack over several years-either situation dramatically mitigates the return.

So all things considered, it's not outlandish to suggest Jones' trade value is much greater than Dunn's.

KronoRed
06-15-2007, 09:32 PM
Helton also has 60 million left on his contract.
Can't wait to hear people talk about that drain on the payroll.