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KoryMac5
06-11-2007, 12:07 PM
More of the same from Espn this AM on the trade rumors involving Adam Dunn and JR. The Dodgers are desperate to get some power in their lineup and Dunn fits the bill of the 40 hr guy they are looking for. Look for talks to heat up soon.


Rumors also continue on JR to the Braves.

I am always one that feels that if a rumor stays around enough it just might happen. What does everyone else think?

Joseph
06-11-2007, 12:11 PM
I tend to agree, though sometimes its completely fabricated by the press, but usually there is some degree of truth to persistent rumors. [Jr back to Seattle and to CWS not withstanding].

Both players could and should be dealt if this team has no desire to compete over the next couple seasons, which it kind of looks like they do not.

westofyou
06-11-2007, 12:14 PM
More of the same from Espn this AM on the trade rumors involving Adam Dunn and JR. The Dodgers are desperate to get some power in their lineup and Dunn fits the bill of the 40 hr guy they are looking for. Look for talks to heat up soon.


Rumors also continue on JR to the Braves.

I am always one that feels that if a rumor stays around enough it just might happen. What does everyone else think?

Dodgers are in need of power, but they also have a big outfield and likely remeber Frank Howard, I don't see the fit as clearcut there. The intangibles (contract, ballpark, Dunn's future as an OF) loom large.

Griffey to ATL?

That fits nice, but the Braves rarely give away someone with upside, except in the marketing hyperbole that their organization churns out so well.

Benihana
06-11-2007, 12:18 PM
Dunn for Billingsley and Kershaw.
Griffey and Lohse for Saltalamacchia.

Let's do this!

lollipopcurve
06-11-2007, 12:22 PM
I figure SD has real interest in Dunn, but the Dodgers may be trying to drive up the price, lead the Reds on and slow things down, without interest in consummating a deal.

TOBTTReds
06-11-2007, 12:26 PM
Dunn for Billingsley and Kershaw.
Griffey and Lohse for Saltalamacchia.

Let's do this!

I would send Krivsky 20 showgirls to his office if he pulls anything off like this.

Az Red
06-11-2007, 12:26 PM
So, is Hopper getting a lot of playing time to show his trade value or see if he can play full time as a Red?

If Hopper stays dependable, is Dunn expendable?

Chip R
06-11-2007, 12:28 PM
I think as long as Freel is hurt, none of the OFers are going anywhere.

Benihana
06-11-2007, 12:31 PM
I think as long as Freel is hurt, none of the OFers are going anywhere.

I think that is shortsighted. Play Hopper until Freel comes back, I think he's earned it. Don't miss out on the opportunity to consummate a good trade because Freel is hurt. If we were contending for the playoffs, I would agree, but Hopper provides a decent filler for a team buried in the standings.

Steve4192
06-11-2007, 12:51 PM
Dunn for Billingsley and Kershaw.
Griffey and Lohse for Saltalamacchia.


The Reds aren't the only team in MLB that has to work within a budget.

Dunn = $10.5MM, Billingsley + Kershaw = $0.4MM
Griffey + Lohse = $12.6MM, Saltalamacchia = $0.3MM

With the possible exception of the Yankees, no team in MLB has the green light to add an eight-digit salary to their payroll without offloading some salary in the deal.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 12:52 PM
Both players could and should be dealt if this team has no desire to compete over the next couple seasons, which it kind of looks like they do not.

I agree.

I was listening to Tracy Jones (don't ask) yesterday and he was telling the masses that this team was "close" to being a pennant winning team. Sure enough, the next 2-3 callers all said that they appreciated his comments because they also felt this team was close.

I don't think this team is that close. They need several pieces added. A front three of Harang, Arroyo, and Homer is nice. Belisle looks like he could be an immediate #4. That part is nice. Get rid of Conine and Hatteberg and you've got Votto to fill in, and for less money, that's not bad either. Phillips is nice. Encarnacion is nice, too. Gonzalez isn't a bad "veteran" player at SS (but isn't a good solution long term). Ross at catcher isn't the best, but he's not the worst option either. I surely wouldn't keep him when he starts to get expensive, though. Hamilton is great in the OF. Bruce will be up sometime to take over for Griffey. Need another OF if both Dunn and Griffey are traded. So in the rotation we need a #5 starter going forward and in the field we need another OFer (if Dunn and Griffey are traded), and you could argue that the Reds have Cueto and Freel to fill those two roles. That's not all bad, and close enough where I would say this group isn't that far away...

The problems come in the bullpen and on the bench. Currently both are horrid. The Reds need to get rid of Maj and Stanton. Weathers and Santos need to be traded. We need to give important innings to the young guys (Burton, Coutlangus, Coffey, MacBeth, Salmon) and bring up others to help them and get their feet wet (Medlock, Guevara).

The bench: Hopper is fine. Freel is fine. Moeller and Valentin need to go. Castro needs to go. Maybe you could keep Hatteberg for another year to backup and provide insurance for Votto next year. I wouldn't mind Hatteberg as a bench player. The other three positions need to be address, though. A better backup catcher (than Moeller) would be nice. A better LH pinch hitter (than Valentin) would also be nice. A backup infielder to replace Castro? Yeah, we need one of those.

So, are we close? Eh, we're not that far, I guess, but in order to stay close, we have to purge the veterans that Wayne seems so happy to collect, we have to turn the bullpen over to the youngsters soon so they can get invaluable experience and adjust to the level we need them to be at, and we need to bring in some bats for the bench. We can be a lot closer going into next season than we are now, but if this F.O. doesn't do the right things we could also be a lot further away.



Trading chips: Griffey, Dunn, Freel, Hatteberg, Lohse, Weathers and Santos.

Pieces needed: Starting OF (preferably young and RH), Young closer or closer prospect, 5th starter (if Cueto isn't ready by ST 2008), Backup C, Backup INF, LH bench bat.

We should be able to fill all of those spots and get more prospects with the players we have to move, IMO.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 12:53 PM
I think that is shortsighted. Play Hopper until Freel comes back, I think he's earned it. Don't miss out on the opportunity to consummate a good trade because Freel is hurt. If we were contending for the playoffs, I would agree, but Hopper provides a decent filler for a team buried in the standings.


Maybe but you're a Jr. injury away from only having 3 OFers. Of course you could always get Bubba Crosby or DeWayne Wise to fill that spot.

NJReds
06-11-2007, 12:54 PM
I could see Griffey going to Atlanta if Atlanta was able to deal Andrew Jones...possibly to Boston. It does set up an interesting 3-way deal with the Reds possibly receiving young players like Saltalamacchia, Lester and/or Hanson.

pedro
06-11-2007, 12:55 PM
Maybe but you're a Jr. injury away from only having 3 OFers. Of course you could always get Bubba Crosby or DeWayne Wise to fill that spot.

does it really matter at this point?

The big question to me is whether the Reds can get more for Dunn on the trade market or whether they'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Either way I don't see them picking up his option.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2007, 01:00 PM
Is Broxton too much or too little to hope for in trading Dunn?

Griffey and cash for Saltalamacchia?

RedsManRick
06-11-2007, 01:07 PM
We need to something to change such that we score/prevent about 150 more runs before we're a playoff caliber team. That is not close. We're close to being an 85-88 win team. In the Central, I guess that's playoff bound. However, we currently lack true top-end talent to drive this team above 90 wins.

As we're currently structured, we're pretty good in a lot spots and poor in others. We need to be REALLY good somewhere and pretty good everywhere else. If Homer becomes an ace, the rotation is the closest thing we have to being really good. If Hamilton becomes a .900 OPS guy, he's basically just replacing Dunn on the cheap. We're going to need EE to reach his potential to replace Jr's production in the next year or two and Votto/Bruce to become really solid for the offense to take the next step.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 01:17 PM
We need to something to change such that we score/prevent about 150 more runs before we're a playoff caliber team. That is not close. We're close to being an 85-88 win team. In the Central, I guess that's playoff bound. However, we currently lack true top-end talent to drive this team above 90 wins.

As we're currently structured, we're pretty good in a lot spots and poor in others. We need to be REALLY good somewhere and pretty good everywhere else. If Homer becomes an ace, the rotation is the closest thing we have to being really good. If Hamilton becomes a .900 OPS guy, he's basically just replacing Dunn on the cheap. We're going to need EE to reach his potential to replace Jr's production in the next year or two and Votto/Bruce to become really solid for the offense to take the next step.


With what I said above, we have a lot of younger players that are on the cusp, IMO, of becoming very good to excellent MLB players (Phillips, Encarnacion, Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Burton, McBeth, Guevara, and Medlock). Not saying they are ready or there now (some are there, some are 2-3 years away from starting peak). That's a pretty good chunk of players about to hit their peak or maintaining it. If we can add more players at the positions we need within that same peak period we could be a real solid team. If you don't start to give those younger players playing time, they won't get there before the "older guys" in their peak now start to fall off. IMO, not only does being a low payroll team effect how you have to build your team, it also effects the window you have to compete as you have to balance your salaries and make sure that when someone starts to decline you cash them in and replace them with someone else that can step up and contribute. Having players that are 3+ years past their prime just won't cut it on a team like this.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 01:25 PM
Maybe but you're a Jr. injury away from only having 3 OFers. Of course you could always get Bubba Crosby or DeWayne Wise to fill that spot.

Wow. An outfield of Wise-Hopper-Crosby would really fill the seats now wouldn't it?

I know, I know. We need to trade these players (Dunn, Griffey) in order to have any chance of building for the future. I guess I'm just already wistful for those days when we had Griff in CF and two 21 year-old prospects on each side (Dunn, Kearns). Those were the days, eh?

flyer85
06-11-2007, 01:28 PM
If there Reds are smart and can get solid players ready to contribute they certainly should deal Jr and should trade Dunn as well if an extension isn;t in his future.

Of course, I have zero confidence Wayne will actually identify and get the right players.

KronoRed
06-11-2007, 01:28 PM
That fits nice, but the Braves rarely give away someone with upside, except in the marketing hyperbole that their organization churns out so well.

Rob Bell to the front please.

With most of MLB being budget conscious it makes sense to throw cash into deals in the hope of making the return better, think of it as the money we'd be giving to good draftees with the draft picks we'd be getting if they leave via FA

RedsManRick
06-11-2007, 01:55 PM
I agree 100% RL. I absolutely want to give our younger guys playing time. My point is that simply turning over our existing "old" talent and letting the young guys take over isn't going to be sufficient. Very few teams win simply by having a lot of above average talent and few holes. With rare exception, you need stars to win.

That said, we don't have many "holes" in terms of volume. We could use a catcher, an OF, 1 SP, and 2-3 RP. We don't need more options, we need better ones. Let's assume you don't replace any of the existing "core" and let's look at the players we know are here for 2009 and we can count on in their current roles. This ignore fringy low ceiling like Elizardo Ramirez, Chris Dickerson, Jerry Gil, Norris Hopper, and Bobby Livingston. Guys I'm taking some liberty to project in (). I normally hate doing this because it's probably only about 50% accurate -- things change so much. But it does give us an idea on where we have the most room to grow.

C: Ross
1B: (Votto)
2B: Phillips
SS: Gonzalez
3B: EE
LF: Griffey
CF: Freel
RF: Hamilton (Bruce)
Maybe ready: SS Janish, SS Valaika

SP: Bailey
SP: Harang
SP: Arroyo
SP: Belisle
SP: (Dumatrait)
Maybe ready: Cueto, Wood

RP: (McBeth)
RP: Majewski
RP: (Burton)
RP: Bray
RP: Coutlangus
RP: (Salmon)
RP: Coffey
Maybe ready: Watson, Guevara

There are a lot of players who we might acquire that sound great in a vacuum. But we have to remember that the value they provide has to be more than a guy listed here or we gain nothing. To me, I see the need for a catcher, an OF, and power bullpen arms above all else.

Falls City Beer
06-11-2007, 01:58 PM
I would send Krivsky 20 showgirls to his office if he pulls anything off like this.

I could definitely see Griffey and Lohse plus some cash for Salty and a good minor league arm. I could easily see that, and I would greatly approve of such a deal.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 02:03 PM
I agree with you, RedsmanRick, with a couple exceptions, although maybe your thinking the same I am with you C, an OF and power arms note at the end.

I don't think Freel is a long term answer in CF for 162 games. I want an upgrade there and I don't think Drew Stubbs is going to be it. Hamilton can play CF and looks to me like a Grady Sizemore kind of player...that's special. Freel, to me, right now, is available for trade to land one of the pieces we need down the road (and I think this year is a good time to deal him).

Majewski is another guy I don't agree on as a lock for the bullpen in the future. He's league average at best. His position needs replaced by a hard throwing reliever.

Ross is another guy I don't write in long term. He's fine for this year, but that's a position where we could really afford to upgrade. It'd make our whole offense a lot better if we could get a catcher that could hit.

The rest of the guys you list in the bullpen and the roster I'm fine with.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 02:05 PM
I could definitely see Griffey and Lohse plus some cash for Salty and a good minor league arm. I could easily see that, and I would greatly approve of such a deal.

Heck, I'd send the Braves Jr. and Lohse for Salty and Andruw Jones and then send Jones to Boston for Hanson and a lower prospect. That'd address two needs right there, a C and a power bullpen arm, and add another prospect for the future.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 02:25 PM
I could definitely see Griffey and Lohse plus some cash for Salty and a good minor league arm. I could easily see that, and I would greatly approve of such a deal.


I think that would be a fair trade.

Team Clark
06-11-2007, 02:29 PM
I would send Krivsky 20 showgirls to his office if he pulls anything off like this.

Shooot I'll split that with you!!

Team Clark
06-11-2007, 02:30 PM
I think that would be a fair trade.

I'm all for that too. Just for conversation sake what do you do with Ross, Moeller and JV?

jojo
06-11-2007, 02:30 PM
I am always one that feels that if a rumor stays around enough it just might happen. What does everyone else think?

I am one to absolutely distrust rumors because often they are motivated by a desire of the *source* to purposefully manipulate a market/negotiation or even worse ,the most specious source is used to validate a story simply because it sells (i.e. 99.9% of all of the drivel on ESPN right at the trading deadline).

That being said, continually hearing Dunn and Jr again and again might signal that the Reds are shopping them.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 02:36 PM
I'm all for that too. Just for conversation sake what do you do with Ross, Moeller and JV?

Nothing. If 3 catchers is good, 4 catchers should be great! :lol:

I'd DFA Moeller and either let Javy continue to be a pinch hitter/3rd string catcher or let him go too. I get the feeling that Ross and Arroyo are joined at the hip so you let Ross start when he's pitching. Besides, you have to have at least 2 catchers and a veteran like Ross would be good for Salty to have around to learn from. You know, how not to block the plate, how not to catch the ball from the OF, how not to swing at anything within the same zip code. Stuff like that.

RedsManRick
06-11-2007, 02:37 PM
RL, I'm not necessarily saying we SHOULD count on any of those guys in particular, merely that they are (or will be) major leaguers under our control.

I wouldn't count on Junior or Freel for 2009. I think getting Kemp and a power reliever from LA for Dunn & change would be a great deal. Kemp plays in LF today. If you trade Junior, Moeller, & change for Salty then you have Freel/Hopper in RF until Bruce is ready.

I think SP is an area where we cannot acquire anybody who is markedly better than the options we already have. I would prefer we focus on the areas we can improve most easily. My main concern, as I've stated elsewhere, is that Bailey and Bruce are the only real "star" potential guys we've got in the pipeline. If either of them fail to reach that potential, we're going to be stuck with a team that just doesn't have enough talent to get over the hump completely. Best case scenario is peaking at around a 90 win squad for a year or two. Not a bad spot to be in, but not what you'd like to be shooting for.

When you're banking on a lot of above average guys, they all need to perform at their potential for you to compete. If a few of them don't, you're mediocre. Having your team driven by a few guys gives you a greater opportunity to have a dominant team as there's more room for growth/performance from elsewhere. Give me Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols or Berkman and Oswalt and you can win with just average to good from the other 23 spots. Hopefully, some of our youth will pan out at the upper end of their potential and we'll be in great shape. I just don't want to bank on that.

Caveat Emperor
06-11-2007, 02:39 PM
I'm all for that too. Just for conversation sake what do you do with Ross, Moeller and JV?

I'd have them help Salty unpack his bags, then I'd tell two of them they had 15 minutes to collect their personal effects and be out of the clubhouse. That'd be a hell of a deal if Krivsky could swing it.

For the record, I'm also not opposed to an outfield combination containing Joey Votto in LF if he can hack it. I'm aware I'm in the minority, but I really think the 1B platoon has been one of the few bright spots over the last two seasons.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 02:41 PM
RL, I'm not necessarily saying we SHOULD count on any of those guys in particular, merely that they are (or will be) major leaguers under our control.

I wouldn't count on Junior or Freel for 2009. I think getting Kemp and a power reliever from LA for Dunn & change would be a great deal. Kemp plays in LF today. If you trade Junior, Moeller, & change for Salty then you have Freel/Hopper in RF until Bruce is ready.

I think SP is an area where we cannot acquire anybody who is markedly better than the options we already have. I would prefer we focus on the areas we can improve most easily.

Ahhhh, got it. I was trying to make sense of that. Should have read your original post again to understand. My apologies.

Razor Shines
06-11-2007, 02:43 PM
Nothing. If 3 catchers is good, 4 catchers should be great! :lol:

I'd DFA Moeller and either let Javy continue to be a pinch hitter/3rd string catcher or let him go too. I get the feeling that Ross and Arroyo are joined at the hip so you let Ross start when he's pitching. Besides, you have to have at least 2 catchers and a veteran like Ross would be good for Salty to have around to learn from. You know, how not to block the plate, how not to catch the ball from the OF, how not to swing at anything within the same zip code. Stuff like that.

All that is very true, but any young catcher could learn a thing or two from Ross in terms of the mechanics of throwing out runners.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 02:47 PM
All that is very true, but any young catcher could learn a thing or two from Ross in terms of the mechanics of throwing out runners.


I know and that's a good point.

BRM
06-11-2007, 02:48 PM
For the record, I'm also not opposed to an outfield combination containing Joey Votto in LF if he can hack it. I'm aware I'm in the minority, but I really think the 1B platoon has been one of the few bright spots over the last two seasons.

The Reds 1B platoon is right around the middle of the pack in the NL right now. It's certainly not a huge problem but it could stand an improvement.

MartyFan
06-11-2007, 02:51 PM
I'd have them help Salty unpack his bags, then I'd tell two of them they had 15 minutes to collect their personal effects and be out of the clubhouse. That'd be a hell of a deal if Krivsky could swing it.

For the record, I'm also not opposed to an outfield combination containing Joey Votto in LF if he can hack it. I'm aware I'm in the minority, but I really think the 1B platoon has been one of the few bright spots over the last two seasons.

I'm in the same camp with you...but what if Conine goes to LF and Cotto and Hatte split time at 1B?

I don't mind that really.

I think this team is not so far away and I do believe that Special K and Mr. C are up to the task of identifying talent and bringing them our way.:beerme:

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 03:04 PM
I'm in the same camp with you...but what if Conine goes to LF and Cotto and Hatte split time at 1B?

I don't mind that really.

I think this team is not so far away and I do believe that Special K and Mr. C are up to the task of identifying talent and bringing them our way.:beerme:

Conine - not a good OFer anymore.

Votto/Hatte - both LH'd. Pretty tough to platoon.

Ltlabner
06-11-2007, 03:07 PM
Votto/Hatte - both LH'd. Pretty tough to platoon.

Sure you can.

Votto plays 80-90% of the time. Hatte spells him and is the number one "go-to" guy off the bench. He's also there as a source of "vet presence" in the clubhouse.

Maybe not a platoon in the tradional sense of the word, but they could both be used, IMO.

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 03:10 PM
Sure you can.

Votto plays 80-90% of the time. Hatte spells him and is the number one "go-to" guy off the bench. He's also there as a source of "vet presence" in the clubhouse.

Maybe not a platoon in the tradional sense of the word, but they could both be used, IMO.

I meant more in the traditional sense. I'm fine with having Hatte on the bench as a LH hitter. Better option than Javy, IMO.

NJReds
06-11-2007, 03:13 PM
The Yankees are playing Miguel Cairo at 1st base. I'm sure that they'd take Conine or Hatteburg in a heartbeat.

BRM
06-11-2007, 03:14 PM
I'd rather just trade Hatteberg while he still has some value.

coachw513
06-11-2007, 03:29 PM
I meant more in the traditional sense. I'm fine with having Hatte on the bench as a LH hitter. Better option than Javy, IMO.

I'm amazed this isn't spoken about more...Javy is a LH bat masquerading as a switch-hitter...Hatteberg would be a sensational late-game PH specialist...makes contact, works pitchers, seems to have a demeanor for the job and would be a good mentor for Votto...

So many folks want to DFA Moeller...not that I have any man-love for that guy but at least he is an adequate defensive catcher (isn't that the prototypical backup anyway)...but Hatte over Javy would be an upgrade for the PH spot if/when we move Votto into 1B...

Red Leader
06-11-2007, 03:38 PM
I'm amazed this isn't spoken about more...Javy is a LH bat masquerading as a switch-hitter...Hatteberg would be a sensational late-game PH specialist...makes contact, works pitchers, seems to have a demeanor for the job and would be a good mentor for Votto...

So many folks want to DFA Moeller...not that I have any man-love for that guy but at least he is an adequate defensive catcher (isn't that the prototypical backup anyway)...but Hatte over Javy would be an upgrade for the PH spot if/when we move Votto into 1B...

Agreed. All Javy is used for at this point is as a LH pinch hitter. Tell me the Reds can't do better than that? The only reason Javy is the LH pinch hitter is because they signed him to a long term deal (foolishly) after his big season a couple years ago. If he was on a 1 yr contract, he'd be gone and they'd have someone else be the LH pinch hitter (at least I hope).

I too think Hatte would be an excellent LH bench player. He works the count, gets on base at a good clip, and makes contact. Can't ask for better than that off the bench. As you mentioned, he would also be a good mentor for Votto when he's on the roster.


As an aside (and I'm not saying this would EVER happen), but just talking out loud here - how much would the Reds have to eat if they DFA'd Valentin, Castro, and Majewski? Would they be able to trade Weathers, Stanton, and Conine? I would have to think you'd get something back for Weathers for sure. Stanton, if he continues to pitch well, might also get you a prospect. Not sure if Conine has any value to anyone or not. He does have a young body. :dunno: I'm just trying to get a feel for how much cash the Reds would have to absorb to "right" the roster, purge the veterans and non-producers and fill their spots with younger players acquired via trade or brought up from the minors.

Highlifeman21
06-11-2007, 03:55 PM
So, is Hopper getting a lot of playing time to show his trade value or see if he can play full time as a Red?

If Hopper stays dependable, is Dunn expendable?

It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.

I just want Dunn to get traded ASAP so I can get his jersey for his new team.

Caveat Emperor
06-11-2007, 03:57 PM
It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.

Reds fans love unconditionally. All they want in return is lots and lots of hustle.

Talent and Value? They're willing to overlook warts there.

Highlifeman21
06-11-2007, 03:59 PM
Wow. An outfield of Wise-Hopper-Crosby would really fill the seats now wouldn't it?

I know, I know. We need to trade these players (Dunn, Griffey) in order to have any chance of building for the future. I guess I'm just already wistful for those days when we had Griff in CF and two 21 year-old prospects on each side (Dunn, Kearns). Those were the days, eh?

We don't need to trade Dunn to build for the future. We should trade Griffey, but not Dunn.

We won't get what we need to successfully rebuild by trading Adam Dunn. We'll get something to help the rebuild if we move Griffey.

I guess I'm confused and baffled as to why people don't want to build around Dunn, and add Bruce to compliment Dunn and Hamilton?

Team Clark
06-11-2007, 04:01 PM
The Yankees are playing Miguel Cairo at 1st base. I'm sure that they'd take Conine or Hatteburg in a heartbeat.

I agree. I personally think a deal involving one of those two is likely before July 1st. Right now both are swinging pretty good and the Reds need whatever offense they can get. When one cools a bit I think he will be shipped. Heck, the Reds might even get a decent player in return.

Ltlabner
06-11-2007, 04:05 PM
It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.

I just want Dunn to get traded ASAP so I can get his jersey for his new team.

Shouldn't be suprising. Hopper's had a hot week or two of flashy performance (including almost killing Freel). Dunn has continued his "peak and valley" performance where its either feast or famine. That Dunn one of the higher paid guys, and he's a feast of famine sort of hitter, he's likely never to be embraced.

Toss in that most baseball fans, but especially those in Cincy, place a premium on "hustle" and of course Hopper's going to be the "it man" for a while.

Team Clark
06-11-2007, 04:05 PM
Nothing. If 3 catchers is good, 4 catchers should be great! :lol:

I'd DFA Moeller and either let Javy continue to be a pinch hitter/3rd string catcher or let him go too. I get the feeling that Ross and Arroyo are joined at the hip so you let Ross start when he's pitching. Besides, you have to have at least 2 catchers and a veteran like Ross would be good for Salty to have around to learn from. You know, how not to block the plate, how not to catch the ball from the OF, how not to swing at anything within the same zip code. Stuff like that.

I like Javy off the bench. I'm not sure that he would be a good option to let go. For Moeller's sake I would DFA him. He'll catch on somewhere. On a side note... I saw Ross go to the mound and talk to a pitcher (besides a pitching change) for the first time in countless games. Ross is just a little too lax for me.

Az Red
06-11-2007, 04:07 PM
It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.

I just want Dunn to get traded ASAP so I can get his jersey for his new team.

I was probing into the front office psyche, not proposing Hopper was an equal replacement to Dunn. Hopper started over Hamilton in CF, WHY? There has to be some explanation for his increased playing time. The smart GM has Hopper showing his skills as to make him a more attractive throw in player. Can he replace Dunn?

Defensively, YES!

Offensively, NO!

Which type of player does WK value more?

Highlifeman21
06-11-2007, 04:08 PM
Reds fans love unconditionally. All they want in return is lots and lots of hustle.

Talent and Value? They're willing to overlook warts there.

It makes sense with the love for Freel and now Hopper.

Rather than rally behind players with talent who contribute, let's champion those who are 4th OF at best on any other good team.

M2
06-11-2007, 04:34 PM
If I were Wayne Krivsky and I was looking to trade vets for some interesting young players, the Cleveland Indians would have a lot of appeal.

They've got Chuck Lofgren, a power LHP. They've got a multi-skilled OF named Brian Barton. And they got a 22-year-old Venezuelan catcher named Max Ramirez who really gets it at the plate. Ramirez in particular fascinates me.

PuffyPig
06-11-2007, 04:35 PM
I guess I'm confused and baffled as to why people don't want to build around Dunn, and add Bruce to compliment Dunn and Hamilton?

Because we may have a small window to trade Dunn this year. If not, he largely becomes untradeable until he leaves as a FA after the 2008 season.

UNless we sign Dunn to an extension brfore the July 31st deadline, it's probably in our best long term interests to trade Dunn.

Highlifeman21
06-11-2007, 04:42 PM
Because we may have a small window to trade Dunn this year. If not, he largely becomes untradeable until he leaves as a FA after the 2008 season.

UNless we sign Dunn to an extension brfore the July 31st deadline, it's probably in our best long term interests to trade Dunn.

I guess I missed the memo where Dunn doesn't factor into any long term interest wearing a Reds uniform.

NC Reds
06-11-2007, 04:42 PM
We don't need to trade Dunn to build for the future. We should trade Griffey, but not Dunn.

We won't get what we need to successfully rebuild by trading Adam Dunn. We'll get something to help the rebuild if we move Griffey.

I guess I'm confused and baffled as to why people don't want to build around Dunn, and add Bruce to compliment Dunn and Hamilton?



This is exactly how I feel. An outfield of Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce will be extremely potent. Dunn is not a part of the problem at all. Krivsky and Narron are the problems. I don't know what free agent pitchers are available, but how about spending some of that Milton money on someone with skills rather than rolling the dice on prospects?

LoganBuck
06-11-2007, 04:48 PM
It amazes me how the notion that Norris freakin Hopper contributes more to the Reds than Adam Dunn has really caught fire.

I just want Dunn to get traded ASAP so I can get his jersey for his new team.

Yep, and a certain broadcaster is seeding that thought with pointed comments and sly remarks. He did the same thing yesterday when he said "So the Reds take down the contact hitting Hopper in favor for (brief pause) Ken Griffey Jr"

or

When Hopper was playing left the other day "Norris Hopper gets to that ball, some other players do not, what great effort"

PuffyPig
06-11-2007, 04:50 PM
I guess I missed the memo where Dunn doesn't factor into any long term interest wearing a Reds uniform.

You also missed the part of my post which said "If we don't sign him to an extension".

Trust me, if we don't sign Dunn to an extension, and he leaves as a FA, he certainly no longer factors into our plans, as he will be playing for someone else.

Sea Ray
06-11-2007, 04:55 PM
UNless we sign Dunn to an extension brfore the July 31st deadline, it's probably in our best long term interests to trade Dunn.

That's an interesting point. Let's think about that for a minute. If you're Krivsky, what is Dunn worth? Is he worth $13mill? Would Dunn take less than what he'll make in 2008? I doubt it. Offensively he has not improved in 5 years and you have to figure he'll decline as a left fielder. I think it'd be very difficult to keep him around after 2008.

Chip R
06-11-2007, 04:56 PM
As an aside (and I'm not saying this would EVER happen), but just talking out loud here - how much would the Reds have to eat if they DFA'd Valentin, Castro, and Majewski?


You don't need to DFA Majewski. Just ship him down to AAA since he has options left and don't offer him a contract for next year. You'd have to pay his salary for this year but otherwise all Wayne would have to eat is pride.

Ltlabner
06-11-2007, 05:07 PM
Yep, and a certain broadcaster is seeding that thought with pointed comments and sly remarks. He did the same thing yesterday when he said "So the Reds take down the contact hitting Hopper in favor for (brief pause) Ken Griffey Jr"

or

When Hopper was playing left the other day "Norris Hopper gets to that ball, some other players do not, what great effort"

I don't want to sidetrack us into a Marty/Marty suxx debate, however, Marty has also extoled the virtures of Jeff "Young Body" Conine and pandered hard for Steve Finley. Neither ideas have really curried a groundswell of support so you can't lay the Norris thing soley at his feet. Welsh has said Castro needs to play everyday, yet there hasn't been a clammoring for "all Juan all the time".

Fans want to be entertained. They've seen some flashy baseball from Norris. They've seen Dunn be anti-flashy the last few weeks. Now, over the course of a season who's going to be more valuable.....well duh. Dunn by a landslide. But casual fans really give a flip about true value to a team. Sorry, its the way it is. If they really understood the true value, they would cease to be casual fans because it takes more than 2 trips to GABP on free tickets per year to understand real value.

This is just Hoppers moment in the sun. As soon as he cools off for a bit, or his OBP goes in the tank, he'll likely not be the flavor de jour.

RedsManRick
06-11-2007, 05:59 PM
I guess I'm confused and baffled as to why people don't want to build around Dunn, and add Bruce to compliment Dunn and Hamilton?

Well, I defend Dunn as much as anybody here, so I'll field this one.

1.) Dunn has old skills. The things he's good at, he's probably as good as he'll ever be (plate discipline, power). The things he's bad at, he's not likely to improve (contact rate, fielding).
2.) He's really big for an OF. Yes, he's a good athlete. But how long before his knees or back show the wear and tear of playing OF at 270 lbs? We already have a 1B of the future. If his defense declines due to decreased mobility, then what?
3.) He's declined 2 straight years since 2004 in terms of OPS (.957, .927, .855) . His OBP is currently sitting at .346. He's walking less this year and not hitting for higher average or more power. His current .869 OPS places him 9th in the NL, between Jason Bay and Carlos Lee. Basically, he's the average #1 OF on an NL team. He's a very good, but not great offensive player.
4.) Of the guys ahead of him in OPS, only Bonds, Soriano, and Carlos Lee make more money. Bonds is a special situation and the Soriano and Lee deals were widely panned.

So, given that, what would it take to build around Dunn? 5 and 90? I'm not against building around Dunn at all. I've said it here and elsewhere, that the mistake small market teams make is forgetting to actually keep the guys they're going to build around. However, we can only afford to build around 2-3 guys. We'd have to accept that Dunn is one of the key cogs and treat him accordingly. We'd have to design an offense around what he can do. We can't put him in the clean-up spot and then moan when he takes a two-out, two-on walk. We'd have to have a CF that can help make up for his inability to track down balls in the gap and over his head, or live with the extra hits that fall in. And lastly, we have to be aware of the risk that he might already be in the early phases of his decline phase. 2004 might be the best Adam Dunn ever gets.

If he stays a .240/.360/.500 bat, is that what we want to build around? Do we want to take the risk that he becomes a .220/.340/.480 bat with even worse defense? Ask the Mariners how they feel about Richie Sexson right now (32 years old, .868 career OPS, .200/.298/.395 in year 3 of a 4/50 contract)

That said, Milton's money is basically going to Arroyo and Harang. With a youth movement in the pen, if we didn't resign/keep Dunn, where would his money be spent? There's no reason to leave money on the table if it could be used to make the team better. More talent is more talent, regardless of how efficiently the money is spent.

Steve4192
06-11-2007, 06:43 PM
That Dunn one of the higher paid guys, and he's a feast of famine sort of hitter, he's likely never to be embraced.

Toss in that most baseball fans, but especially those in Cincy, place a premium on "hustle" and of course Hopper's going to be the "it man" for a while.

Oh, how I long for the days of the "Young Frank 'n Stynes" outfield.

That was an outfield that had hustle and scrappyness out the wazoo.

Az Red
06-11-2007, 06:52 PM
Rick, Well put and not because I'm anti-Dunn I just don't see any baseball growth in his skill set.

IslandRed
06-11-2007, 07:52 PM
Well, I defend Dunn as much as anybody here, so I'll field this one.

Rick, that was a terrific post and sums up a lot of my thoughts. I'm a big fan of Adam Dunn, but if he's reached the "he is what he is" point, it has to be asked: Is that worth $15 million per year, or more, to a small-market team? At that price, the best-case scenario is that he earns the money. OK, maybe for the next year or two he would be worth it, but after that? As you pointed out, guys of his physical and skill profile tend to decline more quickly. I wouldn't want to be on the hook for big money to the big guy once he's on the other side of thirty.

Now, most of us are making some assumptions here about what kind of money Dunn would ask for and could get. I don't actually know what kind of money it would take to keep him from testing the market. Still, the possibility at least has to be considered that whatever that number is, it could be spent more effectively in some other manner, especially factoring in whatever he might net in a trade.

The key point here is that we don't have to deal him right now, and that's the point Krivsky needs to remember. Dunn can be turned into a couple of high draft picks, or we can pick up his option and try again next summer, albeit with a more limited cast of suitors, and who knows, maybe we've become a half-decent ballclub by then. I still think this summer will be the best time to make the trade, but Krivsky has to be willing to walk away from the table if the deal isn't good enough.

GAC
06-11-2007, 07:54 PM
I just don't see Jr agreeing to a deal that sends him to the west coast. Too far from home.

Kc61
06-11-2007, 08:03 PM
Here's what I see happening:

Griffey stays. Plays right field until Jay Bruce replaces him in a couple of years. Only exception to this is if KGJr. asks out, which I don't see as likely.

Dunn traded by deadline this year. Just don't see the Reds paying him a fortune given his production level and defense. Maybe if they were contending, but no need to pay him big bucks on rebuilding club.

Hatteberg also to be traded. Has value, need to open up first for Votto. Conine stays till end of year as righty first baseman. (He's hit well, wouldn't mind him on bench next year.)

Weathers and Stanton to be dangled at deadline; Reds will trade them for good young arms, but not for third tier guys. (Team wants to have whatever semblance of a bullpen it can while rebuilding.)

I would have also said that Freel is trade bait, but not in light of his injury. Hope he is healthy enough to play going forward, for Reds or for anybody.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 08:04 PM
Well, I defend Dunn as much as anybody here, so I'll field this one.

1.) Dunn has old skills. The things he's good at, he's probably as good as he'll ever be (plate discipline, power). The things he's bad at, he's not likely to improve (contact rate, fielding).
2.) He's really big for an OF. Yes, he's a good athlete. But how long before his knees or back show the wear and tear of playing OF at 270 lbs? We already have a 1B of the future. If his defense declines due to decreased mobility, then what?
3.) He's declined 2 straight years since 2004 in terms of OPS (.957, .927, .855) . His OBP is currently sitting at .346. He's walking less this year and not hitting for higher average or more power. His current .869 OPS places him 9th in the NL, between Jason Bay and Carlos Lee. Basically, he's the average #1 OF on an NL team. He's a very good, but not great offensive player.
4.) Of the guys ahead of him in OPS, only Bonds, Soriano, and Carlos Lee make more money. Bonds is a special situation and the Soriano and Lee deals were widely panned.

So, given that, what would it take to build around Dunn? 5 and 90? I'm not against building around Dunn at all. I've said it here and elsewhere, that the mistake small market teams make is forgetting to actually keep the guys they're going to build around. However, we can only afford to build around 2-3 guys. We'd have to accept that Dunn is one of the key cogs and treat him accordingly. We'd have to design an offense around what he can do. We can't put him in the clean-up spot and then moan when he takes a two-out, two-on walk. We'd have to have a CF that can help make up for his inability to track down balls in the gap and over his head, or live with the extra hits that fall in. And lastly, we have to be aware of the risk that he might already be in the early phases of his decline phase. 2004 might be the best Adam Dunn ever gets.

If he stays a .240/.360/.500 bat, is that what we want to build around? Do we want to take the risk that he becomes a .220/.340/.480 bat with even worse defense? Ask the Mariners how they feel about Richie Sexson right now (32 years old, .868 career OPS, .200/.298/.395 in year 3 of a 4/50 contract)

That said, Milton's money is basically going to Arroyo and Harang. With a youth movement in the pen, if we didn't resign/keep Dunn, where would his money be spent? There's no reason to leave money on the table if it could be used to make the team better. More talent is more talent, regardless of how efficiently the money is spent.

Great points. I've been a staunch Dunn defender as well, but your arguments are very sound. IMO, If Griffey and Dunn can be traded for some P/outfield talent, we should invest the leftovers wisely in another pitcher to go with Bailey-Harang-Arroyo. Next, we bring up Votto and wait for Bruce. If we give some of our young BP talent a shot, a few of them might pan out. Hopefully this plan will help us to field a competitive team in a few short years.

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2007, 08:43 PM
I'm the biggest Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. fans in the world. It would hurt me to see both, or even one of them traded, but OTOH, I want to see the Reds take advantage of this bad season by dealing their trading chips for sme younger, cheaper high potential talent that can help us win within the next two seasons. I think with a little tweaking this team can be competitive next year, but 2009 is when I think they have a chance to be really good. Dunn and Griffey are two of the biggest names on the trade market, and those two could bring a bunch of young talent in return.

Griffey and Lohse to the Braves for Saltalmacchia and a pitching prospect is a solid deal for both teams, and Griffey. The Braves add a Hall of Famer in Griffey, and the Reds receieve a great young catcher in return. And Griffey gets his chance at a ring.

Dunn to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley would be ideal, but I'm not sure if the Dodgers would part with Billingsley, but Jonathon Meloan or Clayton Kershaw would work for me also. Kemp and Meloan is the most realistic IMO. Matt Kemp is a RH hitting outfield prospect with solid power potential and speed. Kemp could step in right now play at the big league level, but 2008 is when I expect him to breakout.

If Wayne Krivsky were to pull off these two deals, I would never say another bad thing about him. Check out the collection of young bats under the age of 26 who could be on the Reds roster by mid-2008 or 2009 at the latest: 1B Joey Votto (23), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (22), Matt Kemp (22), Jay Bruce (20), Edwin Encarnacion (24), Brandon Phillips (26), Josh Hamilton (26). The only player who would be over 26 is SS Alex Gonzalez, but he could be gone by 2009 and Phillips shifted to SS to make room for Chris Valaika or Justin Turner or possibly Todd Frazier.

On the pitching side, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are established major league pitchers. Homer Bailey is going to be an ace IMO. Matt Belisle looks like he could make a solid starter. Carlos Fisher, Johnny Cueto, and Sean Watson all have the stuff and stats that indicate to me they can be major league starters in the not-so-distant future.

The bullpen is pretty bad right now, but I think it has a chance to improve a lot as early as this season if the Reds decide to cut ties with the old guys. Marcus McBeth has impressed the heck out of me so far. Brad Salmon and Jared Burton have had success. Jon Coutlangus has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Billy Bray is a solid young arm from the left side. A true closer is what we lack, but that problem could be fixed if the Reds were to receive Jonathon Meloan in return in the trade of Dunn.

In short, I like the direction this organization is going in...

M2
06-11-2007, 09:23 PM
Here's what I see happening:

Griffey stays. Plays right field until Jay Bruce replaces him in a couple of years. Only exception to this is if KGJr. asks out, which I don't see as likely.

Dunn traded by deadline this year. Just don't see the Reds paying him a fortune given his production level and defense. Maybe if they were contending, but no need to pay him big bucks on rebuilding club.

I figure both Dunn and Jr. are goners if Krivsky can get a half decent offer for them. This team is awful. There's no point in preserving it. Frankly, if the Reds won't take this opportunity to rebuild then it's just going to be more of the same for as far as the eye can see.

I'd expect Krivsky to seek out a more well-rounded, younger group of OFs. Torii Hunter is probably a poster boy for the kind of player Krivsky would like to bring into the mix. It's great to have a Jay Bruce in the pipeline, but his ETA is roughly 2009 (and that's if he can master two levels of the high minors and get major league ready in basically a single calendar year). I'm not going to pronounce Drew Stubbs a washout at the moment, but he's not reaching the majors for a looooong time. Josh Hamilton, we'll see how well he adjusts now that pitchers are adjusting to him. Chris Dickerson's the only semi-viable sleeper in the mix.

So that leaves the franchise probably looking for two long-term OFs, one of the flypaper CF variety.

RedsManRick
06-11-2007, 09:41 PM
I think the lack of real contributing OF in the pipeline is why Dunn DOESN'T get traded this year unless Krivksy gets bowled over. His trade value isn't going anywhere. Keep Dunn and you have him to trade next AS break, no harm done. You can see how Stubbs, Hamilton, and Bruce continue to develop. You leave the door open for a long term deal should things develop that way.

I would absolutely hate to see Krivsky trade him for non-impact players just because he felt like now was the time.

Mario-Rijo
06-11-2007, 09:51 PM
I'm the biggest Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. fans in the world. It would hurt me to see both, or even one of them traded, but OTOH, I want to see the Reds take advantage of this bad season by dealing their trading chips for sme younger, cheaper high potential talent that can help us win within the next two seasons. I think with a little tweaking this team can be competitive next year, but 2009 is when I think they have a chance to be really good. Dunn and Griffey are two of the biggest names on the trade market, and those two could bring a bunch of young talent in return.

Griffey and Lohse to the Braves for Saltalmacchia and a pitching prospect is a solid deal for both teams, and Griffey. The Braves add a Hall of Famer in Griffey, and the Reds receieve a great young catcher in return. And Griffey gets his chance at a ring.

Dunn to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley would be ideal, but I'm not sure if the Dodgers would part with Billingsley, but Jonathon Meloan or Clayton Kershaw would work for me also. Kemp and Meloan is the most realistic IMO. Matt Kemp is a RH hitting outfield prospect with solid power potential and speed. Kemp could step in right now play at the big league level, but 2008 is when I expect him to breakout.

If Wayne Krivsky were to pull off these two deals, I would never say another bad thing about him. Check out the collection of young bats under the age of 26 who could be on the Reds roster by mid-2008 or 2009 at the latest: 1B Joey Votto (23), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (22), Matt Kemp (22), Jay Bruce (20), Edwin Encarnacion (24), Brandon Phillips (26), Josh Hamilton (26). The only player who would be over 26 is SS Alex Gonzalez, but he could be gone by 2009 and Phillips shifted to SS to make room for Chris Valaika or Justin Turner or possibly Todd Frazier.

On the pitching side, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are established major league pitchers. Homer Bailey is going to be an ace IMO. Matt Belisle looks like he could make a solid starter. Carlos Fisher, Johnny Cueto, and Sean Watson all have the stuff and stats that indicate to me they can be major league starters in the not-so-distant future.

The bullpen is pretty bad right now, but I think it has a chance to improve a lot as early as this season if the Reds decide to cut ties with the old guys. Marcus McBeth has impressed the heck out of me so far. Brad Salmon and Jared Burton have had success. Jon Coutlangus has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Billy Bray is a solid young arm from the left side. A true closer is what we lack, but that problem could be fixed if the Reds were to receive Jonathon Meloan in return in the trade of Dunn.

In short, I like the direction this organization is going in...

I couldn't have said it better myself. Also RedsManRick was right on as well.

A couple of other Dodgers to consider might be Zachary Hammes (RHP 6'6 240 5/15/84) and Andre Ethier. Of course I know little about Hammes but he is young, and only had a 6.65 SO/9 in AA (small sample size 23 ip) this yr prior to being called up by LA. But his overall numbers seem to reveal a bit of a raw pitcher still, but who has a tendency to get groundballs. And although his #'s aren't all that great I don't know the type of defense he is or has been working with down thus far.

Ethier of course just strikes me as a Beltran type of guy, of course he is a LH/LH which we have plenty of but he just screams perfect for GABP too me and they (LA) might come off of him instead of Kemp.

In other words start with Kemp and Billingsley and end with no less than these 2. In fact Hammes might have been called up by L.A. to showcase to other interested teams, L.A. afterall has a decent defense. :thumbup:

LINEDRIVER
06-11-2007, 09:56 PM
So, is Hopper getting a lot of playing time to show his trade value or see if he can play full time as a Red?

If Hopper stays dependable, is Dunn expendable?

.....and don't forget that first baseman Joey Votto has been seen playing LF for Louisville.

KoryMac5
06-11-2007, 10:33 PM
I'm the biggest Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. fans in the world. It would hurt me to see both, or even one of them traded, but OTOH, I want to see the Reds take advantage of this bad season by dealing their trading chips for sme younger, cheaper high potential talent that can help us win within the next two seasons. I think with a little tweaking this team can be competitive next year, but 2009 is when I think they have a chance to be really good. Dunn and Griffey are two of the biggest names on the trade market, and those two could bring a bunch of young talent in return.

Griffey and Lohse to the Braves for Saltalmacchia and a pitching prospect is a solid deal for both teams, and Griffey. The Braves add a Hall of Famer in Griffey, and the Reds receieve a great young catcher in return. And Griffey gets his chance at a ring.

Dunn to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley would be ideal, but I'm not sure if the Dodgers would part with Billingsley, but Jonathon Meloan or Clayton Kershaw would work for me also. Kemp and Meloan is the most realistic IMO. Matt Kemp is a RH hitting outfield prospect with solid power potential and speed. Kemp could step in right now play at the big league level, but 2008 is when I expect him to breakout.

If Wayne Krivsky were to pull off these two deals, I would never say another bad thing about him. Check out the collection of young bats under the age of 26 who could be on the Reds roster by mid-2008 or 2009 at the latest: 1B Joey Votto (23), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (22), Matt Kemp (22), Jay Bruce (20), Edwin Encarnacion (24), Brandon Phillips (26), Josh Hamilton (26). The only player who would be over 26 is SS Alex Gonzalez, but he could be gone by 2009 and Phillips shifted to SS to make room for Chris Valaika or Justin Turner or possibly Todd Frazier.

On the pitching side, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are established major league pitchers. Homer Bailey is going to be an ace IMO. Matt Belisle looks like he could make a solid starter. Carlos Fisher, Johnny Cueto, and Sean Watson all have the stuff and stats that indicate to me they can be major league starters in the not-so-distant future.

The bullpen is pretty bad right now, but I think it has a chance to improve a lot as early as this season if the Reds decide to cut ties with the old guys. Marcus McBeth has impressed the heck out of me so far. Brad Salmon and Jared Burton have had success. Jon Coutlangus has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Billy Bray is a solid young arm from the left side. A true closer is what we lack, but that problem could be fixed if the Reds were to receive Jonathon Meloan in return in the trade of Dunn.

In short, I like the direction this organization is going in...

I think Dunn for Billingsley and Kemp would be a good deal for both teams and with the Dodgers needing 40hr power in the lineup I can see it getting done. However, if JR gets dealt to Atlanta it won't be for Salty, Whenever you do hypothetical trades you always have to ask yourself if I was a fan of Atlanta would I trade Salty for an aging JR and an unreliable Lohse plus throw in a prospect. I think the Braves are very hungry for another arm in that rotation, and more than likely they will hold on to Saltalamacchia until a starter of worth becomes available.

Sea Ray
06-11-2007, 10:40 PM
I think the Braves are very hungry for another arm in that rotation, and more than likely they will hold on to Saltalamacchia until a starter of worth becomes available.


OK, what do you think about throwing in Belisle instead of Lohse? The Braves were very reluctant to get rid of him in the Mercker trade and they may very well like to have him back. I'm not so sure a better starter will be available to them. I haven't seen this "Salty" guy play but if your scouting reports are true I'd be willing to part with Belisle.

D-Man
06-11-2007, 11:18 PM
Torii Hunter is probably a poster boy for the kind of player Krivsky would like to bring into the mix.

Hunter is going to be very expensive this offseason.

Carl Crawford strikes me as a better fit. Same skill set (otherworldly defense, some pop in his bat), plus a better batting average, beaucoup de steals, and a much more palatable price tag (~$24M over next four years). He has even started taking a few walks this year. And Crawford is only 25. He is (was?) rumored to be on the trading block for young pitching.

[Aside: Crawford has three HOFers on his top ten comp lists through age 24. Who knew??? http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/crawfca02.shtml]

Ichiro is a free agent and fits the bill, too. . . . Although I can't imagine why Ichiro would choose to play in Cincinnati these days.

Re: your second point on the Reds needing to find two long-term OFers, I don’t disagree. But that second corner OFer *should* be one of the easiest parts for the Reds to identify. The GABP is where young, hard-on-their-luck sluggers come to get their groove back. Guillen, Dernell Stenson, Wily Mo. . . They were all helped significantly by the GABP.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2007, 11:21 PM
I think Dunn for Billingsley and Kemp would be a good deal for both teams and with the Dodgers needing 40hr power in the lineup I can see it getting done.

I keep seeing Billingsley's name in this thread.

I want Broxton. Broxton and Kemp would be fine with me, if we are going to trade the big fella.

jojo
06-11-2007, 11:26 PM
Carl Crawford strikes me as a better fit. Same skill set (otherworldly defense, some pop in his bat), plus a better batting average, beaucoup de steals, and a much more palatable price tag (~$24M over next four years). He has even started taking a few walks this year. And Crawford is only 25. He is (was?) rumored to be on the trading block for young pitching.

[Aside: Crawford has three HOFers on his top ten comp lists through age 24. Who knew??? http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/crawfca02.shtml]

The Reds don't have the kind of young pitching the Rays are looking for unless they want to trade Homer.


Ichiro is a free agent and fits the bill, too. . . . Although I can't imagine why Ichiro would choose to play in Cincinnati these days.

Ichiro is most likely going to be a $20M/yr guy and my best guess is he stays in Seattle.

M2
06-11-2007, 11:32 PM
Hunter is going to be very expensive this offseason.

Carl Crawford strikes me as a better fit. Same skill set (otherworldly defense, some pop in his bat), plus a better batting average, beaucoup de steals, and a much more palatable price tag (~$24M over next four years). He has even started taking a few walks this year. And Crawford is only 25. He is (was?) rumored to be on the trading block for young pitching.

[Aside: Crawford has three HOFers on his top ten comp lists through age 24. Who knew??? http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/crawfca02.shtml]

Ichiro is a free agent and fits the bill, too. . . . Although I can't imagine why Ichiro would choose to play in Cincinnati these days.

Re: your second point on the Reds needing to find two long-term OFers, I don’t disagree. But that second corner OFer *should* be one of the easiest parts for the Reds to identify. The GABP is where young, hard-on-their-luck sluggers come to get their groove back. Guillen, Dernell Stenson, Wily Mo. . . They were all helped significantly by the GABP.

I'm not saying the Reds will try to sign Torii Hunter, I'm saying he's likely the blueprint for what Krivsky wants to put in the OF - swings the bat, runs, has some pop, fields like the devil. Not that Alex Rios is available, but I imagine he trips Wayne's drool reflex. Crawford's from a similar mold, the Reds aren't getting him either. What Krivsky probably needs to do is find a guy in the upper minors (maybe high A) who can be that sort of player in a few years.

I think you're right about the kind of third-wheel OF who could find his game at the GAB, but my guess is Krivsky will prefer workingman OFs like Jay Payton, Jose Cruz Jr. and Gary Matthews Jr.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 11:53 PM
I'm not saying the Reds will try to sign Torii Hunter, I'm saying he's likely the blueprint for what Krivsky wants to put in the OF - swings the bat, runs, has some pop, fields like the devil. Not that Alex Rios is available, but I imagine he trips Wayne's drool reflex. Crawford's from a similar mold, the Reds aren't getting him either. What Krivsky probably needs to do is find a guy in the upper minors (maybe high A) who can be that sort of player in a few years.

I think you're right about the kind of third-wheel OF who could find his game at the GAB, but my guess is Krivsky will prefer workingman OFs like Jay Payton, Jose Cruz Jr. and Gary Matthews Jr.

If my memory serves me correctly, DanO had one of those upper minors guys all lined up a few years ago in a Griffey trade to the ChiSox: Chris Young. Too bad Lindner was such a compulsive owner when it came to homer players.

M2
06-12-2007, 12:18 AM
If my memory serves me correctly, DanO had one of those upper minors guys all lined up a few years ago in a Griffey trade to the ChiSox: Chris Young. Too bad Lindner was such a compulsive owner when it came to homer players.

Young certainly would have been a nice catch. I always wonder if Kenny Williams really had Young in the deal. Of course it's a mark of DanO's magical abilities that he was unable to sell his potential signature move to his owner.

WVRedsFan
06-12-2007, 12:37 AM
I noticed with interest that Paul Daugherty on WLW tonight was pushing a trade of Adam Dunn. The callers were very nasty with most of them saying we didn't need 40 HRs from anyone and we needed more players like Norris Hopper.

I'm a little confused by that--this man-love for hustling, low talent players that so many of the fans have. What is it about these guys? They impress the home folks, and then fall on their faces quickly. There's been a long list of them over the years. Yet, when they have a guy around who actually drives in runs and gets on base more often, they constantly diss him mainly because of how much he makes (and I'm not necessarily referring to Dunn--several players fit this mold) and how lazy he is. I've heard this about Robinson and Pinson back in the 60's and you could name one for any decade including Junior Griffey. I don't get it.

Of course, this has nothing to do with the discussion at hand, but I thought the fan comments were interesting.

As you were.

RedEye
06-12-2007, 12:42 AM
I noticed with interest that Paul Daugherty on WLW tonight was pushing a trade of Adam Dunn. The callers were very nasty with most of them saying we didn't need 40 HRs from anyone and we needed more players like Norris Hopper.

I'm a little confused by that--this man-love for hustling, low talent players that so many of the fans have. What is it about these guys? They impress the home folks, and then fall on their faces quickly. There's been a long list of them over the years. Yet, when they have a guy around who actually drives in runs and gets on base more often, they constantly diss him mainly because of how much he makes (and I'm not necessarily referring to Dunn--several players fit this mold) and how lazy he is. I've heard this about Robinson and Pinson back in the 60's and you could name one for any decade including Junior Griffey. I don't get it.

Of course, this has nothing to do with the discussion at hand, but I thought the fan comments were interesting.

As you were.

Classic case of small sample size, the way that traditional stats analysis overvalues batting average, and the kneejerk reactions of fans who watch one or two games at GABP. Hopper has done well for a few games and hits .300 while Dunn never hits over .250 for the long haul. No one really talks about OBP, or walks, or runs, or RBI, or anything else that makes Dunn valuable... and so Hopper seems like a better deal. Trust me, if they watched Norris play for 162 games, they'd realize the errors in their ways.

WVRedsFan
06-12-2007, 12:53 AM
Classic case of small sample size, the way that traditional stats analysis overvalues batting average, and the kneejerk reactions of fans who watch one or two games at GABP. Hopper has done well for a few games and hits .300 while Dunn never hits over .250 for the long haul. No one really talks about OBP, or walks, or runs, or RBI, or anything else that makes Dunn valuable... and so Hopper seems like a better deal. Trust me, if they watched Norris play for 162 games, they'd realize the errors in their ways.

That was my point. Everyone likes guys diving for balls and running to first base on a walk (heck, running out to their position at the beginning of an inning--one of the many reasons for Todd Coffey's popularity), but look at the important columns--runs and RBIs. That's where the rubber meets the road. You can be Player A and run your buns off during a game, but when you only score 40 runs and drive in 23 in a season, it makes Player B who may look like a slacker who is getting on base at a .900 clip, scores 100 runs and drives in 110, seem like a slug unless you understand these things.

IOWs, if I have a guy who's OBP is only around .280-.300, he's a bench player, but a guy like Dunn or Griffey plays every day. Why? They produce runs and you can hustle all you want, but at the end of the game if the other team has more runs you lose. And guys who constantly get on base seem to score more runs.

Now I've confused myself, so I'll quit.

RedEye
06-12-2007, 12:59 AM
Young certainly would have been a nice catch. I always wonder if Kenny Williams really had Young in the deal. Of course it's a mark of DanO's magical abilities that he was unable to sell his potential signature move to his owner.

I always thought of it as less of a dialogue and more of Lindner just telling DanO what to do. I'd sort of be surprised if DanO had much of a chance to "sell" anything on the deal; Lindner just sort of swooped in at the last minute and put the kabosh on it (just like he did with the trade of Larkin to the Mets a few years earlier).

RedEye
06-12-2007, 01:06 AM
That was my point. Everyone likes guys diving for balls and running to first base on a walk (heck, running out to their position at the beginning of an inning--one of the many reasons for Todd Coffey's popularity), but look at the important columns--runs and RBIs. That's where the rubber meets the road. You can be Player A and run your buns off during a game, but when you only score 40 runs and drive in 23 in a season, it makes Player B who may look like a slacker who is getting on base at a .900 clip, scores 100 runs and drives in 110, seem like a slug unless you understand these things.

IOWs, if I have a guy who's OBP is only around .280-.300, he's a bench player, but a guy like Dunn or Griffey plays every day. Why? They produce runs and you can hustle all you want, but at the end of the game if the other team has more runs you lose. And guys who constantly get on base seem to score more runs.

Now I've confused myself, so I'll quit.

Agreed 100%. Nice post.

remdog
06-12-2007, 01:21 AM
That was my point. Everyone likes guys diving for balls and running to first base on a walk (heck, running out to their position at the beginning of an inning--one of the many reasons for Todd Coffey's popularity), but look at the important columns--runs and RBIs. That's where the rubber meets the road. You can be Player A and run your buns off during a game, but when you only score 40 runs and drive in 23 in a season, it makes Player B who may look like a slacker who is getting on base at a .900 clip, scores 100 runs and drives in 110, seem like a slug unless you understand these things.

IOWs, if I have a guy who's OBP is only around .280-.300, he's a bench player, but a guy like Dunn or Griffey plays every day. Why? They produce runs and you can hustle all you want, but at the end of the game if the other team has more runs you lose. And guys who constantly get on base seem to score more runs.

Now I've confused myself, so I'll quit.

I think that, to a large degree, the fans relate more to the 'ordinary guy' busting his butt rather than the superstar that does incredible things yet makes them look so easy. It's a bit easier to identify with a guy with 'average' (or lower) skills that's having a hot streak than to think you could have been the next Babe Ruth if only.....

When a fan sees a Ryan Freel or a Norris Hopper diving, crashing and going all out on the field it's easier to say, 'hey, I coulda' done that!' than imagining themselves as Jr. or Dunn.

Just my opinion. (Although, if I were an inch or two taller and 15 pounds heavier I coulda' been Ryan Freel......:laugh:)

Rem

WVRedsFan
06-12-2007, 02:26 AM
I think that, to a large degree, the fans relate more to the 'ordinary guy' busting his butt rather than the superstar that does incredible things yet makes them look so easy. It's a bit easier to identify with a guy with 'average' (or lower) skills that's having a hot streak than to think you could have been the next Babe Ruth if only.....

When a fan sees a Ryan Freel or a Norris Hopper diving, crashing and going all out on the field it's easier to say, 'hey, I coulda' done that!' than imagining themselves as Jr. or Dunn.

Just my opinion. (Although, if I were an inch or two taller and 15 pounds heavier I coulda' been Ryan Freel......:laugh:)

Rem

I think you hit the nail on the head and this, unbelievably had never occurred to me. That's what's so great about RZ--when we actually get into some serious discussion about a subject, idiots like me can learn from those who have a better perspective.

What's sad about this is the regular fan would gladly give up Dunn, Griffey, and whoever else is extremely gifted, for the Ryan Freels, Norris Hoppers, and Chris Denorfias of the world. One more reason why the customer is not always right, or in this case the fan. If by some strange fate Krivsky trades or more likely gives away Griffey and Dunn by the break, this team may not win another 40 games, thus sealing the 100 loss season that all management tries to avoid.

Pray no one wants them. Please.

MikeS21
06-12-2007, 08:28 AM
I think you hit the nail on the head and this, unbelievably had never occurred to me. That's what's so great about RZ--when we actually get into some serious discussion about a subject, idiots like me can learn from those who have a better perspective.

What's sad about this is the regular fan would gladly give up Dunn, Griffey, and whoever else is extremely gifted, for the Ryan Freels, Norris Hoppers, and Chris Denorfias of the world. One more reason why the customer is not always right, or in this case the fan. If by some strange fate Krivsky trades or more likely gives away Griffey and Dunn by the break, this team may not win another 40 games, thus sealing the 100 loss season that all management tries to avoid.

Pray no one wants them. Please.
By the same token, though, even if the Reds got hot and somehow managed to move up 2-3 slots in the standings, it may make 2007 a little more interesting, but that still wouldn't be enough for a legitimate pennant contender. So why not use some of you trading chips to try to improve your chances for 2008 and the years following?

Caveat Emperor
06-12-2007, 08:52 AM
I figure both Dunn and Jr. are goners if Krivsky can get a half decent offer for them. This team is awful. There's no point in preserving it. Frankly, if the Reds won't take this opportunity to rebuild then it's just going to be more of the same for as far as the eye can see.

I agree that rebuilding is necessary, but I wonder how that concept will fly with a front office that just dropped big dollars to keep their two top pitchers under contract for the next 3+ seasons -- under, I'm assuming, the belief that they'd be anchoring a team that had a playoff window in 2008-20010.

I think the situation on this team is bad, but I don't think there's a real need to blow the entire project to hell. This team could be back on the road to wellness with 2 or 3 good deals -- and I think a competent GM could get the players required to make this team competitive in the near future by dealing Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg or some combination of 2 of those 3.

Ltlabner
06-12-2007, 08:54 AM
Classic case of small sample size, the way that traditional stats analysis overvalues batting average, and the kneejerk reactions of fans who watch one or two games at GABP. Hopper has done well for a few games and hits .300 while Dunn never hits over .250 for the long haul. No one really talks about OBP, or walks, or runs, or RBI, or anything else that makes Dunn valuable... and so Hopper seems like a better deal. Trust me, if they watched Norris play for 162 games, they'd realize the errors in their ways.

Great point. I know people get all worked up that Dunn is not adored and loved by the masses. But the sad truth is the masses are made up of people who go to a few games a year, likely on free-bee tickets, and otherwise don't know squat about the game. Once in the stands, they feal the social pressure to appear smart so they burt out the tradional comments. You suck! He's gonna wiff! Here comes another K! Why do they say these things...because they don't follow the game, and that's what they likely hear other people around them saying.

Perfect example. At the game on Sunday and man and woman sat near us. I could hear her asking questions and it was apparent that she knew diddly about baseball. I mean, she had to ask about basic concepts like foulballs. Yet after a few innings she was gripping about Dunn with the best of them.

Casual fans don't care about walks. They don't care about SLG%. They don't care about ZR and VORP. They want to be entertained. So a guy who hussles, dives a few times, and has a hot week or two will be liked because it's "flashy". (ie entertaining). Meanwhile, the guy who really produces something of substance over the course of an entire year, but his third inning homer is surrounded by 2 strike outs, an error in the outfield and a $10,000,000 salary is going to get pounded.

Ltlabner
06-12-2007, 08:59 AM
I think the situation on this team is bad, but I don't think there's a real need to blow the entire project to hell. This team could be back on the road to wellness with 2 or 3 good deals -- and I think a competent GM could get the players required to make this team competitive in the near future by dealing Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg or some combination of 2 of those 3.

I agree. Some savy moves involving Dunn, Jr, Hatteberg, Loshe, and then the collection of parts (Conine, Javy, Stanton, et al) combined with the solid guys like Harrang, Arroro, EE, Phillips, Hamilton, Bailey, and the wave of young bullpen question marks (Cooter, Coffee, Burton, Salmon, etc) makes for a very nice (and young) team. If Votto and Bruce pan out, and we get a suprise or two from the farm system, it makes for a very intersting team, IMO.

The $64,000 question is can Wayne make all of these moves? Unfortunatley he's in a spot where all of his moves have to be at least perfect and hopefully exceptional for all of this to work.

redsmetz
06-12-2007, 09:26 AM
I suspect that some here are right, but I can't help but feel we'll regret letting Dunn get away - much like we did with Paul O'Neill. I know they're two different ballplayers, but I would have liked O'Neill to be remembered for being a Red (and having helped us), than a Yankee. I fear that Dunn will flower elsewhere and we'll always think about how he was ours first (that's much like Frank Robinson - when they had that All Star game featuring former players and through some mix-up Robby had a Reds hat on, I flipped. My wife and kids thought I'd lost it [well, that's another question]).

Krusty
06-12-2007, 11:18 AM
Dunn for Broxton and OF Matt Kemp.

Where do you sign off on this deal?

westofyou
06-12-2007, 11:22 AM
Broxton weighs 290 pounds, how many years does his body have just throwing gas would be my question. And how soon until he's a fat bad pitcher with arm trouble? At 22 he's big, at 27 he could be HUGE.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 11:23 AM
Dunn for Broxton and OF Matt Kemp.

Where do you sign off on this deal?

I'd rather do it for Billingsley and Kershaw. I'd rather get more pitching- we don't really need another OF right now. Play Hopper until Freel is healthy, and by the time Freel is a FA hopefully Frazier, Dorn, or someone else is ready to take over. If not, you can sign a RH-hitting productive OF (like a Moises Alou) for a lot cheaper than you can sign a productive veteran SP. Just ask Gil Meche.

M2
06-12-2007, 11:41 AM
I agree that rebuilding is necessary, but I wonder how that concept will fly with a front office that just dropped big dollars to keep their two top pitchers under contract for the next 3+ seasons -- under, I'm assuming, the belief that they'd be anchoring a team that had a playoff window in 2008-20010.

I think the situation on this team is bad, but I don't think there's a real need to blow the entire project to hell. This team could be back on the road to wellness with 2 or 3 good deals -- and I think a competent GM could get the players required to make this team competitive in the near future by dealing Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg or some combination of 2 of those 3.

"Blow to hell" is a relative term. I agree a few good deals of vets who aren't part of the long-term picture could improve matters. I imagine those who view Jr. and Dunn as the "core" of the team would view those deals as "blow to hell" moves, though the larger truth is this team lacks a core and is trying to find one.

I was thinking about what the Reds might get from the Dodgers for Dunn. I don't think Billingsley or Broxton would be in the mix. I suspect a deal might look more like Dunn and perhaps Lohse for Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Meloan and Chin-Lung Hu.

MikeS21
06-12-2007, 11:53 AM
Casual fans don't care about walks. They don't care about SLG%. They don't care about ZR and VORP. They want to be entertained. So a guy who hussles, dives a few times, and has a hot week or two will be liked because it's "flashy". (ie entertaining). Meanwhile, the guy who really produces something of substance over the course of an entire year, but his third inning homer is surrounded by 2 strike outs, an error in the outfield and a $10,000,000 salary is going to get pounded.
You're right about casual fans. I would venture a guess that 75%-80% of the fans who go to the games over the course of a year are casual fans who don't care about seeing Adam Dunn walk. When it comes to walks, they want the leadoff hitter or the two hole hitter to walk. But when AD steps to the plate, they want to see him hit HR's. And if he doesn't hit HR's, they at least want to see him put wood on the bat. Casual fans wonder why Dunn can't cut his K's in half and up his HR's to 50-60 per season.

I'm not saying it's right, but I'm just saying that's how the average fan thinks.

Cooper
06-12-2007, 11:55 AM
The one thing i see in common on mosts of the posts in this thread is the type of players we weill get back trading Dunn or Griffey. The haul ain't gonna near as much as some of you are hoping. For each guy, it'll be like 1 AA pitcher and 2 A pitchers. 1 will be a starter the other 2 will be relievers with decent numbers (not too many relievers, even with decent numbers, make the majors). Our return is gonna be more along the lines of a salary dump than it is a trade.

Getting a bonafide prospect....i just don't see that happening. As for getting Salty-there's no way in heck that happens.

WVRedsFan
06-12-2007, 11:56 AM
By the same token, though, even if the Reds got hot and somehow managed to move up 2-3 slots in the standings, it may make 2007 a little more interesting, but that still wouldn't be enough for a legitimate pennant contender. So why not use some of you trading chips to try to improve your chances for 2008 and the years following?
Of course, but make sure that you get value for your trading chips. That hasn't happened recently.

Heath
06-12-2007, 12:00 PM
All I have to say about Adam Dunn, is that be careful what you wish for.

Sometimes you don't know what you have until it's gone.

Sea Ray
06-12-2007, 12:07 PM
The one thing i see in common on mosts of the posts in this thread is the type of players we weill get back trading Dunn or Griffey. The haul ain't gonna near as much as some of you are hoping. For each guy, it'll be like 1 AA pitcher and 2 A pitchers. 1 will be a starter the other 2 will be relievers with decent numbers (not too many relievers, even with decent numbers, make the majors). Our return is gonna be more along the lines of a salary dump than it is a trade.

Getting a bonafide prospect....i just don't see that happening. As for getting Salty-there's no way in heck that happens.

If that's the case then Krivsky didn't do his job. Look at what Cleveland got for Bartolo Colon or what the Padres got for Adam Eaton or what the Brewers got for Carlos Lee. In each case it was a lot more than an A or AA players.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 12:09 PM
The one thing i see in common on mosts of the posts in this thread is the type of players we weill get back trading Dunn or Griffey. The haul ain't gonna near as much as some of you are hoping. For each guy, it'll be like 1 AA pitcher and 2 A pitchers. 1 will be a starter the other 2 will be relievers with decent numbers (not too many relievers, even with decent numbers, make the majors). Our return is gonna be more along the lines of a salary dump than it is a trade.

Getting a bonafide prospect....i just don't see that happening. As for getting Salty-there's no way in heck that happens.

I've never seen a pessimistic outlook that even closely resembles this. I'm just glad you are not the Reds GM. Maybe some people overvalue Jr and Dunn, and maybe Saltalamacchia is unrealistic, but the return you are suggesting is a joke.

BRM
06-12-2007, 12:16 PM
A couple of tidbits from mlbtraderumors.



One interesting part of this Cincinnati Enquirer article (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070612/SPT04/706120324/1071/SPT) was Krivsky saying that a 48-hour window could be granted to an acquiring team to hammer out a contract extension. Defense aside, Dunn's impending free agency is the biggest drawback when comparing him to the also-available Mark Teixeira. But if Dunn is open to a reasonable extension at $12-14MM annually, that could even things out.




While Dunn can technically play left field, he will more likely be used as a first baseman or DH by the acquiring team.

The White Sox are short on power this year, but may shift to sell mode soon and probably wouldn't want Dunn bumbling around in left field anyway. The Dodgers would make a great fit, but acquiring Dunn could require shifting Nomar to third base. He would then break down during his first round of fielding practice.

The Padres make sense too, but Adrian Gonzalez is entrenched at first so Dunn would play left. Oakland or San Francisco could definitely accomodate Dunn at first base. He'd make a great DH for the Twins. Dunn was born in Houston; maybe Wayne Krivsky could do an intra-division trade and Lance Berkman could stick to right field.

I'd really like to see the Twins pull this off, but Dunn just doesn't seem their style. It seems the Dodgers will snag a big bat one way or another, but Dunn isn't the easiest fit. I honestly can't pin down the best suitor for him right now.

Az Red
06-12-2007, 12:22 PM
I suspect that some here are right, but I can't help but feel we'll regret letting Dunn get away - much like we did with Paul O'Neill. I know they're two different ballplayers, but I would have liked O'Neill to be remembered for being a Red (and having helped us), than a Yankee. I fear that Dunn will flower elsewhere and we'll always think about how he was ours first (that's much like Frank Robinson - when they had that All Star game featuring former players and through some mix-up Robby had a Reds hat on, I flipped. My wife and kids thought I'd lost it [well, that's another question]).

The big worry is if Dunn will bloom soon or is he already bloomed out.

Dunn is the prototypical DH. His ceiling is much higher in the American League. If he does get traded and ends up in the AL, you can almost guarantee he will bloom and there will be some levels of regret. There, I stated the obvious.

KoryMac5
06-12-2007, 12:23 PM
I thought the most interesting part of the mlbtraderumor tidbit was when Krivsky was asked about the Dunn rumor he said "no comment". Sometimes you can read a lot into what people don't say vs. what is said.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 12:26 PM
http://www.deadballart.com/redszone/hon.gif

Spitball
06-12-2007, 12:48 PM
December 4, 1964: Claude Osteen was traded by the Washington Senators with John Kennedy and $100000 cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later, Frank Howard, Phil Ortega, Pete Richert, and Ken McMullen. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Dick Nen (December 15, 1964) to the Washington Senators to complete the trade.

The Dodgers dished out a lot to get Osteen.

Heath
06-12-2007, 12:49 PM
http://www.deadballart.com/redszone/hon.gif

Here's what happened to Frank Howard. (Don't confuse him with Frank Thomas - and not THAT Frank Thomas.)


December 4, 1964: Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers with a player to be named later, Ken McMullen, Phil Ortega, and Pete Richert to the Washington Senators for Claude Osteen, John Kennedy, and $100,000. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Dick Nen (December 15, 1964) to the Washington Senators to complete the trade.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 01:31 PM
Dunn is the prototypical DH. His ceiling is much higher in the American League. If he does get traded and ends up in the AL, you can almost guarantee he will bloom and there will be some levels of regret. There, I stated the obvious.

I don't think his bat is going to get a whole lot better because he would be a DH, so to me his ceiling is the same for every team.

gonelong
06-12-2007, 01:46 PM
I don't think his bat is going to get a whole lot better because he would be a DH, so to me his ceiling is the same for every team.

IMO his ceiling is quite a bit different depending on the situation that he lands in.

GL

CrackerJack
06-12-2007, 01:58 PM
There are over 80 active players with a better OBP than Dunn in the league. Right?

Why is that so special?

I understand the need for power, and the power they'd lose if they trade both Jr. and Dunn in the same season/off-season, but Dunn polish is really starting fade fast.

I don't care if it's his work ethic or what, but he's declining already and that can't be a good thing for anyone. Maybe a change of scenery and some real managing will help him get better - but he sure isn't doing it here, for whatever reason.

NJReds
06-12-2007, 02:09 PM
There are over 80 active players with a better OBP than Dunn in the league. Right?

Why is that so special?

I understand the need for power, and the power they'd lose if they trade both Jr. and Dunn in the same season/off-season, but Dunn polish is really starting fade fast.

I don't care if it's his work ethic or what, but he's declining already and that can't be a good thing for anyone. Maybe a change of scenery and some real managing will help him get better - but he sure isn't doing it here, for whatever reason.

I don't think its his work ethic, he seems to work hard and is very durable. But when his contract comes up and he wants a 5 year - $80M contract, can the Reds afford him? As you noted, he seems to be in a slow decline that will most likely only pick up once he hits his early-30s. If the Reds aren't going to resign him, then they should deal him.

M2
06-12-2007, 02:13 PM
There are over 80 active players with a better OBP than Dunn in the league. Right?

Why is that so special?

I understand the need for power, and the power they'd lose if they trade both Jr. and Dunn in the same season/off-season, but Dunn polish is really starting fade fast.

I don't care if it's his work ethic or what, but he's declining already and that can't be a good thing for anyone. Maybe a change of scenery and some real managing will help him get better - but he sure isn't doing it here, for whatever reason.

That's a fair criticism. Frankly, there's no good reason for his OPS to be below .900 and it's his OB that's the problem. He could be better deployed, but at age 27 that shouldn't matter so much.

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2007, 02:32 PM
There are over 80 active players with a better OBP than Dunn in the league. Right?

Why is that so special?

I understand the need for power, and the power they'd lose if they trade both Jr. and Dunn in the same season/off-season, but Dunn polish is really starting fade fast.

I don't care if it's his work ethic or what, but he's declining already and that can't be a good thing for anyone. Maybe a change of scenery and some real managing will help him get better - but he sure isn't doing it here, for whatever reason.

This is a really good point.

For the 1st time in my life, I am concerned that Adam Dunn has taken a step backwards to simply being a good hitter, but not a great hitter.

This season his walk rate has fallen down to 12.4% (16.5% career) and his strikeout rate has risen to 37.7% (33.1% career). His walk/strikeout is now 0.37 (0.60 career).

Basically, Dunn's plate approach has gone completely in the tank this season. Dramatic changes on the negative side on walks and K's is a very bad sign, especially when it's not accompanied by a massive increase in power. And unfortunately, dating back to the last half of last season, this has been going on for awhile now. Maybe it's just the hitting coaches or fans getting to him, but I'm almost resigned to the fact that he is getting worse. If he was traded, hopefully it would be to a team like Oakland that will value his strengths and turn him into the Adam Dunn of old.

Unfortunately, with his current attributes (fielding included) I'm not overlly excited about the Reds forking out 13-15M annually in a long term deal on him. At this point, I seriously question how much he is worth it.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-12-2007, 02:40 PM
This is a really good point.

For the 1st time in my life, I am concerned that Adam Dunn has taken a step backwards to simply being a good hitter, but not a great hitter.

This season his walk rate has fallen down to 12.4% (16.5% career) and his strikeout rate has risen to 37.7% (33.1% career). His walk/strikeout is now 0.37 (0.60 career).

Basically, Dunn's plate approach has gone completely in the tank this season. Dramatic changes on the negative side on walks and K's is a very bad sign, especially when it's not accompanied by a massive increase in power. And unfortunately, dating back to the last half of last season, this has been going on for awhile now. Maybe it's just the hitting coaches or fans getting to him, but I'm almost resigned to the fact that he is getting worse. If he was traded, hopefully it would be to a team like Oakland that will value his strengths and turn him into the Adam Dunn of old.

Unfortunately, with his current attributes (fielding included) I'm not overlly excited about the Reds forking out 13-15M annually in a long term deal on him. At this point, I seriously question how much he is worth it.

I agree. I'm worried too. I would like the 2004/2005 Dunn to come back, however, I'm afraid that it is too late and it's just a matter of time before he's gone.

The sub .900 OPS version of Dunn is definitely not worth building around. I'm ready to move on as long as the return is good.

Ltlabner
06-12-2007, 02:41 PM
That's a fair criticism. Frankly, there's no good reason for his OPS to be below .900 and it's his OB that's the problem. He could be better deployed, but at age 27 that shouldn't matter so much.


OBP SLG AGE
2004 .386 .565 24
2005 .387 .546 25
2006 .362 .478 26
2007 .346 .523 27

"James contended that young players whose value mainly consisted of "old player skills" would decline prematurely..." Baseball Between the Numbers, pg 255.

On page 269 they show a chart of the aging patterns of players with batting eye and power skills. Basically it shows a decline from age 26 to 31 and then a rapid decline. They maintain between 100 and 90% effectiveness from 26 to 28 and then 90% to 75% until 31 when they really start to slide.


I post all of this not to bash Dunn. I also post it knowing that what we've seen from him thus far in 2007 represents a small sample size. However, is it possible that his skill set is already starting to decline such that now is a good time to trade him, and that his value is about as high as it's going to be?

I'm not covering any new ground here, I suppose, but I guess I'm leaning more towards the "Love Dunn, it's time to real in the big catch for him" camp.

What I do worry about is (1) Krivsky getting a good return and (2) any FO of a trade partner with any modicum of statistical analysis savy knows all about what I just posted which tends to drive down his value.

RedEye
06-12-2007, 02:51 PM
Great point. I know people get all worked up that Dunn is not adored and loved by the masses. But the sad truth is the masses are made up of people who go to a few games a year, likely on free-bee tickets, and otherwise don't know squat about the game. Once in the stands, they feal the social pressure to appear smart so they burt out the tradional comments. You suck! He's gonna wiff! Here comes another K! Why do they say these things...because they don't follow the game, and that's what they likely hear other people around them saying.

Perfect example. At the game on Sunday and man and woman sat near us. I could hear her asking questions and it was apparent that she knew diddly about baseball. I mean, she had to ask about basic concepts like foulballs. Yet after a few innings she was gripping about Dunn with the best of them.

Casual fans don't care about walks. They don't care about SLG%. They don't care about ZR and VORP. They want to be entertained. So a guy who hussles, dives a few times, and has a hot week or two will be liked because it's "flashy". (ie entertaining). Meanwhile, the guy who really produces something of substance over the course of an entire year, but his third inning homer is surrounded by 2 strike outs, an error in the outfield and a $10,000,000 salary is going to get pounded.

Yes, I agree completely. Dunn is a player who is unusually memorable to most fans. Not only is he the Reds' biggest HR hitter, he's also the biggest dude on the field most of the time, and everything he does he does dramatically. He's all about those three "true outcomes" that Rob Deer made famous: HR, walk, and K. He hits moonshot homers and lines frozen-rope doubles off the wall--but he also often flails at strike three and kicks the ball around in the outfield. Frankly, Dunn's like a bull in a china shop a lot of the time, and he's therefore easy to pick out by anyone who cares to watch the game. Thus, I'm not sure there's a player who creates more division between casual fans who watch the game and avid fans who analyze it compulsively. In some way, it's really an interesting phenomenon isn't it?

gonelong
06-12-2007, 02:54 PM
IMO its a pretty decent time to trade Dunn. The Reds are not likely contenders for the next season or two and the can lose with or without Dunn. I wouldn't give him away, but I don't think we'll get the haul we have been envisioning.

While he remains as a strong contributor to the offense, he is no longer a cheap resource.

GL

jojo
06-12-2007, 02:58 PM
IMO his ceiling is quite a bit different depending on the situation that he lands in.

GL

Because of his minus defense, it's often assumed that Dunn would be most valuable as a DH.

Here's his bat to this point: .250/.346/.523; OPS: .869; RC: 35;

He'd currently be ranked 6th among DH's by OPS behind Ortiz, Thome, Cust, Sheffield and Hafner.

He'd currently be ranked 7th among DH's by RC/G behind Thome, Ortiz, Sheffield, Cust, Hafner and Giambi.

At the position were he'd theoretically be most productive, Dunn looks to be roughly league average/middle of the pack.

As a leftfielder, his bat is currently ranked 15th in the majors by RC/G, 12th in the majors by VORP, and 5th in the majors by OPS. He was ranked the second worst defensive leftfielder in the majors during 2006 by UZR (-20) and he's gotten worse each year since 2004. So he's basically somewhere around a league average leftfielder when considering his overall value (bat plus glove).

I think Dunn will be an expensive DH and from this point forth in his career. It's going to be difficult for his production to make his salary a good value and this is especially so if he actually plays the field.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-12-2007, 03:02 PM
Yes, I agree completely. Dunn is a player who is unusually memorable to most fans. Not only is he the Reds' biggest HR hitter, he's also the biggest dude on the field most of the time, and everything he does he does dramatically. He's all about those three "true outcomes" that Rob Deer made famous: HR, walk, and K. He hits moonshot homers and lines frozen-rope doubles off the wall--but he also often flails at strike three and kicks the ball around in the outfield. Frankly, Dunn's like a bull in a china shop a lot of the time, and he's therefore easy to pick out by anyone who cares to watch the game. Thus, I'm not sure there's a player who creates more division between casual fans who watch the game and avid fans who analyze it compulsively. In some way, it's really an interesting phenomenon isn't it?

He is the anti-Casey.

jojo
06-12-2007, 03:08 PM
OBP SLG AGE
2004 .386 .565 24
2005 .387 .546 25
2006 .362 .478 26
2007 .346 .523 27

"James contended that young players whose value mainly consisted of "old player skills" would decline prematurely..." Baseball Between the Numbers, pg 255.

On page 269 they show a chart of the aging patterns of players with batting eye and power skills. Basically it shows a decline from age 26 to 31 and then a rapid decline. They maintain between 100 and 90% effectiveness from 26 to 28 and then 90% to 75% until 31 when they really start to slide.


I post all of this not to bash Dunn. I also post it knowing that what we've seen from him thus far in 2007 represents a small sample size. However, is it possible that his skill set is already starting to decline such that now is a good time to trade him, and that his value is about as high as it's going to be?

I'm not covering any new ground here, I suppose, but I guess I'm leaning more towards the "Love Dunn, it's time to real in the big catch for him" camp.

What I do worry about is (1) Krivsky getting a good return and (2) any FO of a trade partner with any modicum of statistical analysis savy knows all about what I just posted which tends to drive down his value.


This is a great post and some edifying food for thought.

:beerme:

registerthis
06-12-2007, 03:15 PM
While he remains as a strong contributor to the offense, he is no longer a cheap resource.


That, IMO, is the key here. No one's pushing to get the team's greatest HR threat traded simply because he strikes out too much. But, in spite of what Castellini might say about increasing the team's payroll, the fact is this team is simply *always* going to have to be concerned about the bottom line. It doesn't mean no "big ticket" free agents or pricey contracts to deserving younger players, but the Reds MUST be judicious in how they allocate their payroll.

Right now, Dunn is on pace to hit 38 HRs, drive in 97, and score 99. That's good. But he's also on pace to get on base less than 35% of the time, and strike out an astonishing 210 times. Perhaps most distressing, though, is that his RC/27 has declined substantially--from a high of 7.86 in 2004, to 6.02 today. That's good for 31st in the National League, behind such stalwarts as Josh Willingham, Jose Reyes and Russell Martin, and more than 1.5 behind Junior.

2007 is also shaping up to be another year in which Dunn's numbers have continued their slow but methodical decline. The point raised above from Bill James with regards to older player skill sets might certainly be true of a player like Dunn. If that is the case, like GL and others have noted, 2007 might be a very good time to trade him. He's not going to command an ace pitcher, but he *should* bring in a good amount of value to the organization.

My caveat is that Krivsky is the one responsible for finding a suitor for Dunn, and I'm not convinced that he's up to the task. In other words, I can get behind the notion of dealing Dunn in hypothetical terms, but in reality I'm a bit more trigger shy.

missionhockey21
06-12-2007, 03:18 PM
OBP SLG AGE
2004 .386 .565 24
2005 .387 .546 25
2006 .362 .478 26
2007 .346 .523 27

"James contended that young players whose value mainly consisted of "old player skills" would decline prematurely..." Baseball Between the Numbers, pg 255.

On page 269 they show a chart of the aging patterns of players with batting eye and power skills. Basically it shows a decline from age 26 to 31 and then a rapid decline. They maintain between 100 and 90% effectiveness from 26 to 28 and then 90% to 75% until 31 when they really start to slide.


I post all of this not to bash Dunn. I also post it knowing that what we've seen from him thus far in 2007 represents a small sample size. However, is it possible that his skill set is already starting to decline such that now is a good time to trade him, and that his value is about as high as it's going to be?

I'm not covering any new ground here, I suppose, but I guess I'm leaning more towards the "Love Dunn, it's time to real in the big catch for him" camp.

What I do worry about is (1) Krivsky getting a good return and (2) any FO of a trade partner with any modicum of statistical analysis savy knows all about what I just posted which tends to drive down his value.
I own several books of James and enjoy him as much as the next fan, but despite his skill set I think any decline shown by Dunn is due to changes in how he approaches the game and not in skill level. I really do not believe this applies to him in the way that it is stated. How many times and how many people have tried to alter Adam Dunn's swing or approach to the game dating all the way back to the Boone era?

Ltlabner
06-12-2007, 03:20 PM
I own several books of James and enjoy him as much as the next fan, but despite his skill set I think any decline shown by Dunn is due to changes in how he approaches the game and not in skill level. I really do not believe this applies to him in the way that it is stated. How many times and how many people have tried to alter Adam Dunn's swing or approach to the game dating all the way back to the Boone era?

An excellent point. It also can't help much to be on a horrable team going nowhere fast. Let's face it, being surrounded by tallent and greatness causes people to rise to the challenge or grow to meet it. Being surrounded by defeat and misery...well...it's not very conducive to helping people reach their true potential.

OTOH, the same tinkering that Dunn recieves should hypothetically be given to Phillips and Gonzo, yet they don't seem effected. Of course, they haven't been around as long.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 03:23 PM
I tend to agree, though sometimes its completely fabricated by the press, but usually there is some degree of truth to persistent rumors. [Jr back to Seattle and to CWS not withstanding].


The only reason Griffey didn't go to the White Sox was because Lindner wouldn't let it happen.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 03:25 PM
The only reason Griffey didn't go to the White Sox was because Lindner wouldn't let it happen.

If I recall correctly Lindner killed the deal before it got to JR for approval, he may well have said no

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 03:26 PM
If I recall correctly Lindner killed the deal before it got to JR for approval, he may well have said no

That may be right, I don't quite recall....either way, Lindner killed it.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 03:31 PM
This trade season should benefit the Reds (or I should say, Wayne should be able to exploit this trade season) because many teams are DEFINITELY still in the hunt for their division titles, but the Reds (and only a couple of other teams) are DEFINITELY out of the race. We've got a month and a half till the deadline, and the Reds already know they're out of it--that's a long time to make some serious hay.

No excuses. None.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 03:34 PM
This trade season should benefit the Reds (or I should say, Wayne should be able to exploit this trade season) because many teams are DEFINITELY still in the hunt for their division titles, but the Reds (and only a couple of other teams) are DEFINITELY out of the race. We've got a month and a half till the deadline, and the Reds already know they're out of it--that's a long time to make some serious hay.

No excuses. None.


In this division, they'll never be DEFINITELY out of the race, they're only 4 out of 2nd place...which would be a good starting point to aim for, but they need to realize that they aren't good enough to even make the playoffs interesting even if they somehow, someway, got hot enough to make it.

The NL West's best or East's best would clobber them......or any team in the Central for that matter.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 03:37 PM
In this division, they'll never be DEFINITELY out of the race, they're only 4 out of 2nd place...which would be a good starting point to aim for, but they need to realize that they aren't good enough to even make the playoffs interesting even if they somehow, someway, got hot enough to make it.

The NL West's best or East's best would clobber them......or any team in the Central for that matter.

They're DEFINITELY out of the race, unless old man Castellini wants to shell out 20 million at the deadline.

Hoosier Red
06-12-2007, 03:42 PM
The problem in Dunn's value is this.
Lets for the sake of argument say there are two camps,
old school-scout based and new school-stat based. I realize every team has a combination of this illustrates my point so bear with me.

Old school teams aren't likely to want Dunn(or at least give up much for him) because of his strikeouts, his poor BA with RISP, his overall lack of clutch and his general malaise as an outfielder.

New School teams wouldn't get hung up on strikeouts or playing the game the right way players, but they as LtLabner pointed out understand the whole concept of old player skills and how quickly they erode. I'm not sure any team in this camp will be all that gung ho about signing Dunn long term.

So he is what he is, isn't likely to get better and right now may not be as valuable to any team more than he is to the Reds right now.

Sea Ray
06-12-2007, 03:43 PM
The NL West's best or East's best would clobber them......or any team in the Central for that matter.


I don't know. Look at St Louis last year...

Once you make it to the playoffs anything can happen

M2
06-12-2007, 03:44 PM
An excellent point. It also can't help much to be on a horrable team going nowhere fast. Let's face it, being surrounded by tallent and greatness causes people to rise to the challenge or grow to meet it. Being surrounded by defeat and misery...well...it's not very conducive to helping people reach their true potential.

That could work both ways. Opposing teams could have a gameplan of not allowing Dunn to beat them, figuring the rest of the club can't rise to the task. Conversely, since the Reds often find themselves on the wrong side of the run tally, Dunn might be seeing more hittable pitches than he would on a contender.

It's probably a case of pitchers not sweating him so much with the bases empty, but then enacting the Don't-Let-Dunn-Beat-You gameplan once guys are on base.

Perhaps a change of scenery would help the guy. We all know that he's been on the Reds for a butt ugly run of seasons. Yet he should be better even so. I understand he runs hot and cold and that he's in a trough right now, but his lows should be higher.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 03:44 PM
I don't know. Look at St Louis last year...

Once you make it to the playoffs anything can happen

This is true...this is true.


I, and probably most people, didn't think they had a chance.






Can you see Jerry Narron managing in the playoffs?? :eek:

westofyou
06-12-2007, 03:45 PM
That could work both ways. Opposing teams could have a gameplan of not allowing Dunn to beat them, figuring the rest of the club can't rise to the task.Hence why so many solo shots and so many walks and low BA in RISP position throughout his career.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 03:46 PM
Can you see Jerry Narron managing in the playoffs??

Don Zimmer and John McNamera did it, it can't be that big of a surprise if it ever occurs.

Sea Ray
06-12-2007, 03:48 PM
So he is what he is, isn't likely to get better and right now may not be as valuable to any team more than he is to the Reds right now.

He's more valuable to a contender than he is to our Reds. The Reds are a last place team with or without him. He could be a difference maker for some 2nd place teams like Seattle or SD. The difference between Sea and Anaheim is Vlad. If they bring in a Dunn they can close that gap.

M2
06-12-2007, 03:51 PM
He's more valuable to a contender than he is to our Reds. The Reds are a last place team with or without him. He could be a difference maker for some 2nd place teams like Seattle or SD. The difference between Sea and Anaheim is Vlad. If they bring in a Dunn they can close that gap.

I sometimes think Vlad is the difference between the Halos and AAA, at least on the position player side of things. He has absolutely carried that team for four years.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 03:51 PM
Don Zimmer and John McNamera did it, it can't be that big of a surprise if it ever occurs.

Everyone's nemesis Jack McKeon, let us not forget.

Ltlabner
06-12-2007, 03:53 PM
Everyone's nemesis Jack McKeon, let us not forget.

Total off topic side note. In addition to kicking around Dunn's trade possibilities and should we/shouldn't we I am watching the Yankees pound the crap out of the Pirates on Mlb.TV. It's Sunday's game from the archive.

Productivity plummeting.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 03:54 PM
Everyone's nemesis Jack McKeon, let us not forget.

McKeons biggest failing was he treated players he didn't care for like dirt and he ignored most of everyone else unless he loved you. That and the ability to become disinterested in anything outside of his office unless things were running smoothly.

Even when he won players griped about him, in Florida too.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 03:54 PM
Don Zimmer and John McNamera did it, it can't be that big of a surprise if it ever occurs.

I meant more along the lines of him managing in a playoff game....against, let's say, a Bobby Cox...

Eric_Davis
06-12-2007, 03:58 PM
Because of his minus defense, it's often assumed that Dunn would be most valuable as a DH.

Here's his bat to this point: .250/.346/.523; OPS: .869; RC: 35;

He'd currently be ranked 6th among DH's by OPS behind Ortiz, Thome, Cust, Sheffield and Hafner.

He'd currently be ranked 7th among DH's by RC/G behind Thome, Ortiz, Sheffield, Cust, Hafner and Giambi.

At the position were he'd theoretically be most productive, Dunn looks to be roughly league average/middle of the pack.

As a leftfielder, his bat is currently ranked 15th in the majors by RC/G, 12th in the majors by VORP, and 5th in the majors by OPS. He was ranked the second worst defensive leftfielder in the majors during 2006 by UZR (-20) and he's gotten worse each year since 2004. So he's basically somewhere around a league average leftfielder when considering his overall value (bat plus glove).

I think Dunn will be an expensive DH and from this point forth in his career. It's going to be difficult for his production to make his salary a good value and this is especially so if he actually plays the field.

Looking at those numbers and then adding CF, RF, and 1B to the mix, it's not likely that Dunn finishes up the 2007 and 2006 seasons as one of the Top-20 % of players in that category according to Eliaz Sports Bureau, thus rendering one supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round, assuming his numbers don't drop enough that places him out of the Top-40%, but those percentages include bench players and starters.

dabvu2498
06-12-2007, 04:05 PM
I meant more along the lines of him managing in a playoff game....against, let's say, a Bobby Cox...

Any fool could've managed some of those Braves teams with the talent they put on the field.

Another example: the Red Sox are currently 40-22, best record in MLB, with a 9.5 game lead and look at the shelling some Sox fans threw at Francona after a Sunday loss to the D-Backs: http://www.soxaholix.com/tp/2007/06/holding_it_in.html

westofyou
06-12-2007, 04:06 PM
I meant more along the lines of him managing in a playoff game....against, let's say, a Bobby Cox...

That's what I meant, both those bobo's managed in the playoffs, as for "against" Bobby Cox, if one was to look at the managerial stats for Cox and LaRussa and Narron over the past 3 years they are pretty similar, except Jerry has only about 64 colors in his palette and the other guys have 256.

Talent is the best dividing line in this business, from what I can tell Jerry has done 1/2 of his job fabulously, the clubhouse never is a titter with many faux roman senate reenactments nor back stabbing. The rest is what will cause him to update his resume.

IslandRed
06-12-2007, 04:18 PM
Looking at those numbers and then adding CF, RF, and 1B to the mix, it's not likely that Dunn finishes up the 2007 and 2006 seasons as one of the Top-20 % of players in that category according to Eliaz Sports Bureau, thus rendering one supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round, assuming his numbers don't drop enough that places him out of the Top-40%, but those percentages include bench players and starters.

I'm not so sure; last winter's rankings (based on the 2005 and 2006 seasons) would have placed him as a Type A even with the 20% cutoff instead of the 30%, and his 2007 is in the same ballpark. As long as he maintains his level of performance and especially his counting stats -- I don't think Elias' formula is as deep as VORP or RC/27, although I could be wrong -- he will probably qualify.

membengal
06-12-2007, 04:28 PM
I generally like Lance McAllister's show, but his take on Adam Dunn makes Marty B's appear enlightened. Insulting and sophomoric doesn't begin to sum it up.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 04:35 PM
I generally like Lance McAllister's show, but his take on Adam Dunn makes Marty B's appear enlightened. Insulting and sophomoric doesn't begin to sum it up.

It's always seemed to me that Lance blames Adam Dunn for Sean Casey being dealt.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-12-2007, 04:39 PM
It's always seemed to me that Lance blames Adam Dunn for Sean Casey being dealt.

I blame Sean Casey for Paul Konerko being dealt.

jojo
06-12-2007, 04:43 PM
I generally like Lance McAllister's show, but his take on Adam Dunn makes Marty B's appear enlightened. Insulting and sophomoric doesn't begin to sum it up.

He's not fantasizing on air about local weather personalities today?

:rolleyes:

The vast majority of local sportstalk radio really will rot your brain. Lance is at his best when he shuts up and lets a select few of his guests do the talking (Lap, Decourcy, J Hopson, J. Jones etc).

Chip R
06-12-2007, 04:43 PM
I blame Sean Casey for Paul Konerko being dealt.


I blame Bob Boone for everything.

M2
06-12-2007, 04:47 PM
Here's an interesting Adam Dunn stat that goes to what kind of impact he's had on the team.

Reds record in Dunn's starts 2001-present:

398-451 (.469 winning %)

Reds record 2001-present when Dunn doesn't start:

67-118 (.362 winning %)

M2
06-12-2007, 04:51 PM
I blame Sean Casey for Paul Konerko being dealt.

Cameron for Konerko may have been JimBo's finest deal. Unfortunately Cameron only played one season in a Reds uniform.

membengal
06-12-2007, 04:52 PM
He's not fantasizing on air about local weather personalities today?

:rolleyes:

The vast majority of local sportstalk radio really will rot your brain. Lance is at his best when he shuts up and lets a select few of his guests do the talking (Lap, Decourcy, J Hopson, J. Jones etc).

Agreed.

I, on rare occasions when work permits, will tune in internet-style to hear the local chatter, and am regretting the opportunity that I took to do so today...

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 04:54 PM
Gasp!

A talk show host with an opinion!

Cooper
06-12-2007, 04:56 PM
Never thought i'd write this, but since 99- Cameron was/is a more more productive player than Griffey. In fact, there was 1 year in there where i thought Cameron was the best player in the AL.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 04:57 PM
Cameron for Konerko may have been JimBo's finest deal. Unfortunately Cameron only played one season in a Reds uniform.

Getting Konerko and Reyes for a 32 year old Shaw was a good deal as well.

Aronchis
06-12-2007, 04:59 PM
Dunn is a good slugger, but not a good hitter. If he wants to be a great slugger, he is going to have to learn how to hit better. Nobody struggles more with the outside pitch like Mr. Dunn. Then you have his plodding ways in the outfield with a 13 mill contract the Reds may be due to him.

No surprise talk of a trade has come up.

Joseph
06-12-2007, 05:00 PM
Gasp!

A talk show host with an opinion!

Don't defend your boy. ;)

He's really got idiot written all over his face with this one. Not that honestly he doesn't usually of late. He spent a week rambling about the NBA playoffs and why we all should care and I emailed [yes sue me] and asked why it was so important to him that anyone watched the NBA he claimed he never made such an assertion.

Anyway he really looks the fool with this one, but its becoming par for the course with Lance. He' rather give away whats been shown to be a unique talent just because he's incapable of understanding it. It really boils down to him believing in the hustle-hype of Hopper and Freel types and thats really just sad that people like him are influencing listeners and polluting the minds of fans against what the Reds truly need, more talent, not less. Replacing Dunn with Hopper is a talent downgrade.

M2
06-12-2007, 05:00 PM
Gasp!

A talk show host with an opinion!

Opinions are great, unfortunately modern media seems to specialize in opinion unencumbered by intelligence. Any clown can have an opinion.

membengal
06-12-2007, 05:03 PM
Aronchis, to be clear, I don't mind the trade chatter, or that Dunn might be on the block. In fact, given my begging for a youth movement and a blow-it-up re-start in several threads over the last month, moving Dunn is essential to my hope.

That said, I love Dunn, think him VASTLY under-rated by too many fans, and worry that WK will sell him for far less than he is worth.

This is indeed a critical moment for this franchise, and WK has to get this deal right. Trading chips like Adam Dunn are rare, and must be cashed in appropriately, if that is indeed the route they go.

Edited to add:

Joseph, that is absolutely spot-on. Couldn't say it better if I tried, so I won't.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:04 PM
Any clown can have an opinion.... but not everyone can be right.

Our society tends to treat opinion as fact.

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 05:05 PM
I generally like Lance McAllister's show, but his take on Adam Dunn makes Marty B's appear enlightened. Insulting and sophomoric doesn't begin to sum it up.

So long as batting average and strikeouts rule the local media's world here in Cincinnati, there will always be a local whipping boy for guys like Marty and Lance to crap all over.

Jay Bruce has a PA/K ratio of 4.12 this season in Sarasota, which projected over 670 plate appearances (which Dunn has reached in past seasons) is 163 strikeouts.

Bruce is probably within a year or so away from being on the radar of the casual fan in the upper minors, and once he's on their radar they'll raise him up to being another savior in Cincinnati. Then Bruce will arrive, strike out in 25 percent of his plate appearances, and the next thing you know those same Reds fans will be wanting to dump him in the Ohio River alongside Dunn.

Me? I personally can't wait to see Jay Bruce strike out 160 times in a season in a Reds uniform. It'll be highly entertaining.

jojo
06-12-2007, 05:07 PM
Never thought i'd write this, but since 99- Cameron was/is a more more productive player than Griffey. In fact, there was 1 year in there where i thought Cameron was the best player in the AL.

Here's a post (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1362714&postcount=20) that compares the two since Jr's arrival to Cincy....

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:08 PM
Me? I personally can't wait to see Jay Bruce strike out 160 times in a season in a Reds uniform. It'll be highly entertaining.or that leadoff hitter Stubbs striking out over 200 times. :D

jojo
06-12-2007, 05:08 PM
Don't defend your boy. ;)

He's really got idiot written all over his face with this one. Not that honestly he doesn't usually of late. He spent a week rambling about the NBA playoffs and why we all should care and I emailed [yes sue me] and asked why it was so important to him that anyone watched the NBA he claimed he never made such an assertion.

Anyway he really looks the fool with this one, but its becoming par for the course with Lance. He' rather give away whats been shown to be a unique talent just because he's incapable of understanding it. It really boils down to him believing in the hustle-hype of Hopper and Freel types and thats really just sad that people like him are influencing listeners and polluting the minds of fans against what the Reds truly need, more talent, not less. Replacing Dunn with Hopper is a talent downgrade.

Clearly you don't understand baseball or this team....

:D

M2
06-12-2007, 05:09 PM
This is indeed a critical moment for this franchise, and WK has to get this deal right. Trading chips like Adam Dunn are rare, and must be cashed in appropriately, if that is indeed the route they go.

And if he isn't then we'll be looking at having to cash in Harang and/or Phillips and/or Encarnacion in another few years to get what Dunn didn't fetch. It's a vicious cycle. The Reds don't have the farm system to do it internally or the cash to buy their way to success. They've got to make good trades.

Joseph
06-12-2007, 05:10 PM
Clearly you don't understand baseball or this team....

:D

That's evident with my every post isn't it? :)

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:10 PM
Me? I personally can't wait to see Jay Bruce strike out 160 times in a season in a Reds uniform. It'll be highly entertaining.

Bruce will have to improve his strikeout rate or the Reds radio booth and casual fans will be all over him when he arrives.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 05:12 PM
Me? I personally can't wait to see Jay Bruce strike out 160 times in a season in a Reds uniform. It'll be highly entertaining.

It'll be fantastic hearing the same rips we hear on Dunn used on Bruce and probably Votto in the coming years, they may get it a bit less because the mighty BA should be higher with them, but I bet NEITHER will hustle! :D

edabbs44
06-12-2007, 05:14 PM
Here's an interesting Adam Dunn stat that goes to what kind of impact he's had on the team.

Reds record in Dunn's starts 2001-present:

398-451 (.469 winning %)

Reds record 2001-present when Dunn doesn't start:

67-118 (.362 winning %)

Just out of curiosity, how many of those games where Dunn didn't start were vs LHPs? And what is their overall record vs LHPs in that same time period?

I am at work so I cannot research this all day, but it is something that I think might be relevant. They seem to have struggled vs LHPs in recent history.

edabbs44
06-12-2007, 05:15 PM
So long as batting average and strikeouts rule the local media's world here in Cincinnati, there will always be a local whipping boy for guys like Marty and Lance to crap all over.

Jay Bruce has a PA/K ratio of 4.12 this season in Sarasota, which projected over 670 plate appearances (which Dunn has reached in past seasons) is 163 strikeouts.

Bruce is probably within a year or so away from being on the radar of the casual fan in the upper minors, and once he's on their radar they'll raise him up to being another savior in Cincinnati. Then Bruce will arrive, strike out in 25 percent of his plate appearances, and the next thing you know those same Reds fans will be wanting to dump him in the Ohio River alongside Dunn.

Me? I personally can't wait to see Jay Bruce strike out 160 times in a season in a Reds uniform. It'll be highly entertaining.


If Bruce strikes out 160 times and hits .280 or above, I doubt many people will harp on his Ks.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:15 PM
Bruce will have to improve his strikeout rate or the Reds radio booth and casual fans will be all over him when he arrives.

comparison at Low A Dayton

Bruce 490 PA/106K
Dunn 540 PA/101K

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 05:16 PM
Don't defend your boy. ;)

He's really got idiot written all over his face with this one. Not that honestly he doesn't usually of late. He spent a week rambling about the NBA playoffs and why we all should care and I emailed [yes sue me] and asked why it was so important to him that anyone watched the NBA he claimed he never made such an assertion.

Anyway he really looks the fool with this one, but its becoming par for the course with Lance. He' rather give away whats been shown to be a unique talent just because he's incapable of understanding it. It really boils down to him believing in the hustle-hype of Hopper and Freel types and thats really just sad that people like him are influencing listeners and polluting the minds of fans against what the Reds truly need, more talent, not less. Replacing Dunn with Hopper is a talent downgrade.

I'm all for trading Dunn....I'm not going to get into strikouts, RISP, all that stuff....he is what he is, we know that....and we know that's not going to change, as much as Dunn says he's going to...

I'm more interested in using that $13 Million (along with Milton's money) for more pressing needs...like pitching, speed, defense, and more contact-type hitters.

Home runs are great, but this team has led the NL, or been close to the top of the NL in home runs for years, and it hasn't gotten them anywhere.

They need a different dynamic...

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:16 PM
If Bruce strikes out 160 times and hits .280 or above, I doubt many people will harp on his Ks.

:laugh:

I assume you are joking.

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:17 PM
If Bruce strikes out 160 times and hits .280 or above, I doubt many people will harp on his Ks.

Depends on his BARISP.

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 05:17 PM
Bruce will have to improve his strikeout rate or the Reds radio booth and casual fans will be all over him when he arrives.

Get used to such phrases as ...

"Bruce reminds me of Adam Dunn ... "

or

"Bruce is just another Adam Dunn ... "

And you're right, unless Bruce really cuts down on his strikeout rates by the time he reaches the majors, he probably won't have much of a chance here in Cincinnati with the local media and casual fan. If Bruce strikes out at a rate similar to what he's doing in the FSL, the clowns here will try to run him out of town ala Dunn.


It'll be fantastic hearing the same rips we hear on Dunn used on Bruce and probably Votto in the coming years, they may get it a bit less because the mighty BA should be higher with them, but I bet NEITHER will hustle! :D

Votto's probably another candidate to strikeout a lot on the big league level. And if you want to hear those boo birds, just wait until the Reds send Votto out to play left field.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:18 PM
I'm more interested in using that $13 Million (along with Milton's money) for more pressing needs...like pitching, speed, defense, and more contact-type hitterswon't matter a bit. Can't even buy one good player for that. We saw what WK did with 10M+ this last offseason.

You want the Reds to be better? Get quality back by trading Dunn and Jr.

membengal
06-12-2007, 05:18 PM
Home runs are great. Runs are great. Getting on base is great. All those things are great. A simple acknowledgement of those facts as they discuss Dunn and what his loss from the team might mean from McAllister, or Brennamen, or any of them really, would at least help me not to completely dismiss their blatherings as excrement dressed up as airtime...

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:19 PM
Votto's probably another candidate to strikeout a lot on the big league level. And if you want to hear those boo birds, just wait until the Reds send Votto out to play left field.

Yeah, I've read Votto plays a pretty poor LF. Even worse than Dunn.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:19 PM
Home runs are great. Runs are great. Getting on base is great. All those things are great. A simple acknowledgement of those facts as they discuss Dunn and what his loss from the team might mean from McAllister, or Brennamen, or any of them really, would at least help me not to completely dismiss their blatherings as excrement dressed up as airtime...Dunn won't be missed, the Reds have Norris Hopper.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:20 PM
:laugh:

I assume you are joking.

No kidding. The dude could hit .340, BB 80 times a season, hit 50 bombs, strike out in the rest of his at-bats, and people in Cincy would throw their 1940s transistor radios at him from the stands.

If you strike out in a Reds uniform, you are dogcrap, according to Cincy fans. Utterly worthless. Regardless of the fact that you carry your team offensively.

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:20 PM
Dunn won't be missed, the Reds have Norris Hopper.

Dickerson is ready to break through as well.

membengal
06-12-2007, 05:20 PM
Yeah, I know flyer. Singles are more manly than walks.

I'm just sayin', it's possible, Lance McAllister, to lay out the case for trading Adam Dunn that does not involve slagging on how good Dunn is. Might even make for compelling radio. Crazy, I know...

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:21 PM
Yeah, I've read Votto plays a pretty poor LF. I have noticed that the last week or so he has been back at 1B. Read whatever you want into that.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 05:21 PM
Dunn won't be missed, the Reds have Norris Hopper.

You're being sarcastic, I know...

Don't get me wrong, I like what Norris Hopper has done....but you have to think there's a reason he's 28 and is just sniffing the majors.

I bet if he starts long enough, people will see why he shouldn't be starting...that doesn't mean he shouldn't be on the big club...

NJReds
06-12-2007, 05:22 PM
No kidding. The dude could hit .340, BB 80 times a season, hit 50 bombs, strike out in the rest of his at-bats, and people in Cincy would throw their 1940s transistor radios at him from the stands.

If you strike out in a Reds uniform, you are dogcrap, according to Cincy fans. Utterly worthless. Regardless of the fact that you carry your team offensively.

So I guess Reds fans would hate Ryan Howard?

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:22 PM
No kidding. The dude could hit .340, BB 80 times a season, hit 50 bombs, strike out in the rest of his at-bats, and people in Cincy would throw their 1940s transistor radios at him from the stands.
similar to Ryan Howard last year

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:23 PM
So I guess Reds fans would hate Ryan Howard?

They'd be all over the 2007 version. Some would have disliked the 2006 version, I'm sure.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:23 PM
So I guess Reds fans would hate Ryan Howard?they would be booing the 2007 version with the low BA and high K rate

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:26 PM
So I guess Reds fans would hate Ryan Howard?

Yep. The Marty-ites would. The smart fans wouldn't; the soccer moms wouldn't. But the Johnny-Punch-Clocks that follow Marty's every word, hell yes.

Joseph
06-12-2007, 05:26 PM
I'm all for trading Dunn....I'm not going to get into strikouts, RISP, all that stuff....he is what he is, we know that....and we know that's not going to change, as much as Dunn says he's going to...

I'm more interested in using that $13 Million (along with Milton's money) for more pressing needs...like pitching, speed, defense, and more contact-type hitters.

Home runs are great, but this team has led the NL, or been close to the top of the NL in home runs for years, and it hasn't gotten them anywhere.

They need a different dynamic...

I don't have a problem, as others have said, with talking about improving the team....even if it means dealing Dunn, Griffey, Homer, you name it.

What I do not like is the media in general poisoning the airwaves with diatribes lacking any real substance and seemingly failing to understand the positives of Dunn and others. Lance is approaching this as an addition by subtraction theory, instead of Dunn is a valuable trading chip. Thats idiotic in my opinion.

Aronchis
06-12-2007, 05:26 PM
Aronchis, to be clear, I don't mind the trade chatter, or that Dunn might be on the block. In fact, given my begging for a youth movement and a blow-it-up re-start in several threads over the last month, moving Dunn is essential to my hope.

That said, I love Dunn, think him VASTLY under-rated by too many fans, and worry that WK will sell him for far less than he is worth.

This is indeed a critical moment for this franchise, and WK has to get this deal right. Trading chips like Adam Dunn are rare, and must be cashed in appropriately, if that is indeed the route they go.

He is VASTLY overrated by many fans as well. Dunn is somebody you take in the middle. He has the potential to hit better, but that may be a DHing Dunn in his 30's. I think Austin Kearns eventually figures it out and learns how to adjust to pitchers, but it may take to his early 30's before he figures it out similiarly. Which IMO with the desperation for bullpen help, triggered the "The Trade"(of crap so far for both) last year.

How do the Reds see Dunn developing in the future? Does he decline, stay steady, improve? Doesn't matter if Dunn is a power hitting phenom at 34. It is what Dunn is doing the rest of this decade that matters.

Do they feel he is worth one good prospect? Two? Does somebody come along and offer a package the Reds can't refuse? How much does Krivsky detest Dunn's plodding in the outfield? Will Dunn resign cheaper because of a modest recent decline? Do the Reds really want to resign Dunn?

On the minus side possibly if you want Krivsky gone, if I traded Adam Dunn, I would ask for my contract to be extended a extra 2 years. The "high potential" prospect that you may aquire, probably won't be ready to signifigently contribute to the major league team to 2009-10 period.

NJReds
06-12-2007, 05:27 PM
they would be booing the 2007 version with the low BA and high K rate

Somehow I doubt that. But you could be right. He does walk more than K w/runners on, so the "KRISP KROWD" would be satisfied.

He had 150 RBI last year...and Marty would be all over that?

RichRed
06-12-2007, 05:27 PM
Yeah, I know flyer. Singles are more manly than walks.

I'm just sayin', it's possible, Lance McAllister, to lay out the case for trading Adam Dunn that does not involve slagging on how good Dunn is. Might even make for compelling radio. Crazy, I know...

I've never listened to this Lance guy. If he thinks Dunn is so awful, just what does he expect to get in return for him?

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 05:28 PM
I don't have a problem, as others have said, with talking about improving the team....even if it means dealing Dunn, Griffey, Homer, you name it.


I'm not trading Homer...

:)

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:29 PM
Lance is approaching this as an addition by subtraction theory, instead of Dunn is a valuable trading chip. Thats idiotic in my opinion.Ignorant is the proper way to describe it.

edabbs44
06-12-2007, 05:29 PM
:laugh:

I assume you are joking.

Not at all. People see Dunn's .240 average and assume that it is b/c of his strikeouts. Look at what Ryan Howard did last season. I seriously doubt the fans of Cincy would take issue with that season, even if he did whiff 181 times.

Chip R
06-12-2007, 05:29 PM
Anyway he really looks the fool with this one, but its becoming par for the course with Lance. He' rather give away whats been shown to be a unique talent just because he's incapable of understanding it. It really boils down to him believing in the hustle-hype of Hopper and Freel types and thats really just sad that people like him are influencing listeners and polluting the minds of fans against what the Reds truly need, more talent, not less. Replacing Dunn with Hopper is a talent downgrade.


When Dunn leaves and does well against some other team, if the Reds are languishing and having problems scoring runs, Lance and his ilk will be blasting the Reds for letting Dunn go.

I wasn't around here in the early 90s so I'm wondering how people felt about Paul O'Neill. I know the interweb wasn't around then and sports talk shows were few and far between but it seems like a decent comparison. Everybody says now that was such a horrible trade but was it received similarly then?

NJReds
06-12-2007, 05:30 PM
Ignorant is the proper way to describe it.

I agree. The Lance/BadFundamentals view of getting Dunn off the team at any cost makes no sense. He has some trade value, the question is whether Krvisky can maximize that value.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:34 PM
Not at all. People see Dunn's .240 average and assume that it is b/c of his strikeouts. Look at what Ryan Howard did last season. I seriously doubt the fans of Cincy would take issue with that season, even if he did whiff 181 times.

You are just genetically off on this issue. Fundamentally wrong. Cincy fans take a Sharpie, black out anything that indicates positive offensive contribution from Dunn; they then highlight in orange or electric yellow the one column in his stat line, take it to Kinko's, have semi-truck-sized banners made of his K totals, and parachute into the stadium with said banner, and beat Dunn with a K-shaped truncheon. It's a mania, not an observation or criticism.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 05:35 PM
I agree. The Lance/BadFundamentals view of getting Dunn off the team at any cost makes no sense. He has some trade value, the question is whether Krvisky can maximize that value.

There's also a question of whether he not has the value that some people think he does....

I think it's somewhere in between....I DON'T think you're going to get a Roy Oswalt type, or an ace...but you can probably get a big league arm,(preferably a starter) and possibly a better one from an AL team, or prospects....maybe not the best prospect in that organization, but ones with good upside, and a good chance to help a big league team in the near future.


Basically...no, they're not getting Jared Weaver for Adam Dunn :D

M2
06-12-2007, 05:35 PM
Just out of curiosity, how many of those games where Dunn didn't start were vs LHPs? And what is their overall record vs LHPs in that same time period?

I am at work so I cannot research this all day, but it is something that I think might be relevant. They seem to have struggled vs LHPs in recent history.

The answer is, I've got no idea. The totals are from his seven seasons with the club so you've got some normalization with large numbers there.

Point being, if Dunn leaves via trade this summer, things are likely to get very ugly in the near term. I can live with that if it's part of a long-term overhaul project, but anyone thinking the Reds won't miss a beat if Dunn goes out the door will be in for a rough awakening.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:38 PM
The answer is, I've got no idea. The totals are from his seven seasons with the club so you've got some normalization with large numbers there.

Point being, if Dunn leaves via trade this summer, things are likely to get very ugly in the near term. I can live with that if it's part of a long-term overhaul project, but anyone thinking the Reds won't miss a beat if Dunn goes out the door will be in for a rough awakening.

No kidding. It's why I wouldn't be at all inimical to keeping him around. I'd still prefer that a bunch of other guys make an exit in trade before Dunn.

Dunn may not be someone to "build around" (whatever that entails), but he does represent a pretty solid known commodity. Something the Reds have next to nothing of.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:38 PM
There's also a question of whether he not has the value that some people think he does....
he has some value but not great value. A good GM should be able to get quality prospects for him. A bad GM will settle for quantity.

Certainly there is no Oswalt on the horizon.

membengal
06-12-2007, 05:38 PM
Matt, who in here is asking for an Oswalt type return? Everything I have seen in this thread and most threads on Dunn, even from those willing to acknowledge he has actual, um, strengths, are deals that make a ton of sense in terms of return and don't appear to over-reach.

What is far easier to find, especially among the Cincy talking heads, is the get-him-off-the-team-at-any-costs-his-strikeouts-are-killing-the-team trade thoughts. By the way, McAlister just called Dunn a "one-trick pony" and said he is insulted when he watches Dunn play ball.

Beyond ignorant.

"This team will not win with Adam Dunn on the team". Lovely, Lance.

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:39 PM
Here is a great post on C. Trent's blog. Some fans are really delusional when it comes to Adam Dunn.



Snyder is good he was just in a slump like Dunn, I would rather have Earl up there rather then Dunn anyday of the week, unless we are down 7-1 with nobody on in the bot of 9th then he will make it 7-2. But basesloaded situation Snyder all the way

dabvu2498
06-12-2007, 05:41 PM
You are just genetically off on this issue. Fundamentally wrong. Cincy fans take a Sharpie, black out anything that indicates positive offensive contribution from Dunn; they then highlight in orange or electric yellow the one column in his stat line, take it to Kinko's, have semi-truck-sized banners made of his K totals, and parachute into the stadium with said banner, and beat Dunn with a K-shaped truncheon. It's a mania, not an observation or criticism.

Throwing a bit of a broad brush there, eh?

Still lots of Dunn jerseys/t-shirts in the stands and cheers for him when he comes to the plate. I don't see the 100% cesspool of negativity that you see.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 05:41 PM
Matt, who in here is asking for an Oswalt type return?

I've heard it proposed..by fans....I just laugh everytime it is.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:41 PM
Matt, who in here is asking for an Oswalt type return? Everything I have seen in this thread and most threads on Dunn, even from those willing to acknowledge he has actual, um, strengths, are deals that make a ton of sense in terms of return and don't appear to over-reach.

What is far easier to find, especially among the Cincy talking heads, is the get-him-off-the-team-at-any-costs-his-strikeouts-are-killing-the-team. By the way, McAlister just called Dunn a "one-trick pony" and said he is insulted when he watches Dunn play ball.

Beyond ignorant.

"This team will not win with Adam Dunn on the team". Lovely, Lance.

About the only two offensive players who would net an Oswalt in return would be Pujols and Howard. And that only because they have decent-sized contracts for their value.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:41 PM
Over his career Dunn doesn't have terrible splits(I remember looking up the numbers last year). It varies from year to year(as it does with every player) and he has at least 2 years where he OPSed higher against LHP.

Jr has been atrocious the last few years against LHP and yet he is pounding them this year.

You simply play you're best players. Platoon situations are for players of very equal ability.

M2
06-12-2007, 05:42 PM
So I guess Reds fans would hate Ryan Howard?

I was in Philly just over a week ago, and at a Phillies game to boot, and folks were already grousing about Howard something fierce.

dabvu2498
06-12-2007, 05:42 PM
"This team will not win with Adam Dunn on the team". Lovely, Lance.

This team wouldn't win with Babe Ruth the pitcher and hitter on it.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:42 PM
Throwing a bit of a broad brush there, eh?

Still lots of Dunn jerseys/t-shirts in the stands and cheers for him when he comes to the plate. I don't see the 100% cesspool of negativity that you see.

I guess I should have put in a smiley. As you can see--it's a joke. Still, it is pretty out of hand. I think even you would have to admit as much. I only get into town once or twice a year, and I hear it and read it.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 05:45 PM
This team wouldn't win with Babe Ruth the pitcher and hitter on it.

You know how much he struck out? ugh!!:D

membengal
06-12-2007, 05:46 PM
This team wouldn't win with Babe Ruth the pitcher and hitter on it.

Yup, that's for goshdarn sure.

Which makes statements like that from McAlister insulting, and the reason why so many of us bristle at those kind of broadsides against one of the few truly productive players on this team...

Eric_Davis
06-12-2007, 05:46 PM
I'm not so sure; last winter's rankings (based on the 2005 and 2006 seasons) would have placed him as a Type A even with the 20% cutoff instead of the 30%, and his 2007 is in the same ballpark. As long as he maintains his level of performance and especially his counting stats -- I don't think Elias' formula is as deep as VORP or RC/27, although I could be wrong -- he will probably qualify.

I hope so, as I'd love to get a solid 1st Round pick in addition to the supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds should we lose him to Free Agency.

Unless it's Johan Santana, I don't see how we could keep any player that's going to earn the money that Dunn will merit this off-season.

dabvu2498
06-12-2007, 05:46 PM
I guess I should have put in a smiley. As you can see--it's a joke. Still, it is pretty out of hand. I think even you would have to admit as much. I only get into town once or twice a year, and I hear it and read it.

Lance is the Nancy Grace of Cincy sportstalk. Almost Tracy Jonesish.

As someone said before, he spends almost as much time talking about hot weatherwomen, MILFs in movies and cool cars on TV as he does about "real" sports.

I'd rather listen to pigs rooting in slop.

NJReds
06-12-2007, 05:49 PM
I was in Philly just over a week ago, and at a Phillies game to boot, and folks were already grousing about Howard something fierce.

While that is outright crazy, it doesn't surprise me. Although he's been on a tear, so they're probably backing off....and they always have Burrell to boo.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:50 PM
The reason people like Marty and Lance don't like Dunn isn't mainly because of the Ks. It's because they have created a caricature of what a good player looks like, Dunn does not look like the caricature ... ergo Dunn is not a good ballplayer.

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 05:51 PM
While that is outright crazy, it doesn't surprise me. Although he's been on a tear, so they're probably backing off....and they always have Burrell to boo.

If you're ever at a game in Philly and Burrell is starting, make sure to sit in the left field corner. It's not just good-natured ribbing; the fans over there have an outlandish and pure hatred towards Pat Burrell. I actually thought some people went to the game just to yell at Burrell because they never actually even followed the game, except for what Burrell was doing (or not doing, in their view).

rdiersin
06-12-2007, 05:51 PM
I guess I should have put in a smiley. As you can see--it's a joke. Still, it is pretty out of hand. I think even you would have to admit as much. I only get into town once or twice a year, and I hear it and read it.


Seriously though how much different is it than the difference Phillies fans have for Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. The arguments against Burrell usually are that he strikes out too much and is bad with runners in scoring position. Sounds familiar. However, they love Howard despite his strikeouts.

TOBTTReds
06-12-2007, 05:53 PM
I was in Philly just over a week ago, and at a Phillies game to boot, and folks were already grousing about Howard something fierce.

I was at the SF/PHI game last Sunday afternoon. Every time Freddy Garcia swung and missed the crowd bood. Keep in mind he is a pitcher. Gotta feel bad for some of those guys.

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 05:55 PM
The reason people like Marty and Lance don't like Dunn isn't mainly because of the Ks. It's because they have created a caricature of what a good player looks like, Dunn does not look like the caricature ... ergo Dunn is not a good ballplayer.

It's the Pete Rose caricature.

It's why Reds fans love guys like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper, but love to berate guys like Griffey and Dunn. If you don't remind Marty, Lance, and the casual fan of Pete Rose, then you're not their type of player and they'll look for every flaw they can find to highlight and criticize.

Barry Larkin is one of the few great Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.

BRM
06-12-2007, 05:56 PM
It's the Pete Rose caricature.

It's why Reds fans love guys like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper, but love to berate guys like Griffey and Dunn. If you don't remind Marty, Lance, and the casual fan of Pete Rose, then you're not their type of player and they'll look for every flaw they can find to highlight.

Barry Larkin is one of the few Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.

I suspect Votto may not be extremely popular when he arrives then. However, Chris Dickerson may get some love.

TeamBoone
06-12-2007, 05:57 PM
I noticed with interest that Paul Daugherty on WLW tonight was pushing a trade of Adam Dunn. The callers were very nasty with most of them saying we didn't need 40 HRs from anyone and we needed more players like Norris Hopper.

I'm a little confused by that--this man-love for hustling, low talent players that so many of the fans have. What is it about these guys? They impress the home folks, and then fall on their faces quickly. There's been a long list of them over the years. Yet, when they have a guy around who actually drives in runs and gets on base more often, they constantly diss him mainly because of how much he makes (and I'm not necessarily referring to Dunn--several players fit this mold) and how lazy he is. I've heard this about Robinson and Pinson back in the 60's and you could name one for any decade including Junior Griffey. I don't get it.

Of course, this has nothing to do with the discussion at hand, but I thought the fan comments were interesting.

As you were.

The fans that can't see what Adam Dunn brings to the table have:

1 - been listening to Marty's anti Dunn spew for so long that they believe it;

2 - only the ability to look at his performance superficially (BA and SO); this includes Marty.

3 - no ability whatsoever to drill below the superficial Adam Dunn stats in an attempt to recognize his real value (this also includes Marty).

This writer has it right. It's too bad that most Reds fans won't ever read it:


Report: Adam Dunn Is Already on the Trade Market
Posted Jun 11th 2007 7:15PM by Matt Watson

My FanHouse colleague Larry Brown just noted how there aren't very many legitimate power hitters available on the trade market. Well, that's good news for the Reds, who are reportedly fielding offers for Adam Dunn, at least according to Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman.

Now, Dunn has his faults, but if the Reds move him, I suspect they'll receive a king's ransom in return. Who else out there has hit at least 40 home runs each of the past three years? You might point to his batting average and his obscene number of strikeouts, but to that I saw hogwash. The guy has a career .377 OBP, so his batting average means nothing to me.

As for the strikeouts, well, that's the price you pay when you ask a guy to mash the ball as hard as he can every time he steps to the plate. But really, If you put a guy slugging over .500 in the middle of your lineup, chances are good things will happen. You may cringe when he strikes out, but you'll be cheering when he sends a ball into orbit.

His defense is an issue, but if you're a GM of a team that's sorely lacking left-handed power, I guarantee you'll find a spot for him in your lineup, whether it's in the outfield, first base or DH. Figuring out where to play a guy like Dunn is a problem most managers would like to have.

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/06/11/report-adam-dunn-is-already-on-the-trade-market/

I also noted that some so-called reporters know so little about him that one article actually said the Reds are looking to trade their first baseman, Adam Dunn.....

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 05:57 PM
It's the Pete Rose caricature.

It's why Reds fans love guys like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper, but love to berate guys like Griffey and Dunn. If you don't remind Marty, Lance, and the casual fan of Pete Rose, then you're not their type of player and they'll look for every flaw they can find to highlight and criticize.

Barry Larkin is one of the few Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.

Eric Davis got "the treatment" too. Though I'd say Barry was disliked by a lot of folks on a personal level. Not sure why.

I'd say chumps like Hal Morris and Chris Sabo (post 1990) didn't hear the boobirds enough.

flyer85
06-12-2007, 05:57 PM
Barry Larkin is one of the few great Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.and he was underappreciated in his time with club. Eric Davis was excoriated during his first tenure with the Reds. Ks too much, won't play hurt ... yada, yada, yada.

BRM
06-12-2007, 06:00 PM
From C. Trent.


talked to Dunn, he said the only thing that is different is that people ask him about being traded at dinner. He said he'd be worried if there weren't trade talk around him right now. It's that time of year, after all. He said he's gone through this every year he's been here and it's nothing new.

Cyclone792
06-12-2007, 06:03 PM
I suspect Votto may not be extremely popular when he arrives then. However, Chris Dickerson may get some love.

I suspect you're right with regards to Votto (I have no idea on Dickerson). We already know Votto's defense won't win anybody over, and it may in fact turn quite a few people against him.

As of now, the only way I see Votto escaping "the treatment" is for him to hit close to or above .300 each season. If Votto hits .265 with a truckload of walks and above average power, there's a good chance he'll crapped all over by the local Cincinnati media and the casual Reds fan.

M2
06-12-2007, 06:19 PM
If you're ever at a game in Philly and Burrell is starting, make sure to sit in the left field corner. It's not just good-natured ribbing; the fans over there have an outlandish and pure hatred towards Pat Burrell. I actually thought some people went to the game just to yell at Burrell because they never actually even followed the game, except for what Burrell was doing (or not doing, in their view).

They were fixated on Bonds when I was there (the game before AvesIce). If Barry ever doubted it's all about him they cleared up that matter for him. They were so into Bonds, they forgot to boo Pat Burrell.


Seriously though how much different is it than the difference Phillies fans have for Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. The arguments against Burrell usually are that he strikes out too much and is bad with runners in scoring position. Sounds familiar. However, they love Howard despite his strikeouts.

The thing is they don't love Howard. Maybe they did for a short time when he was tearing it up late last season, but I didn't hear a kind word said about him the other weekend. I won't go into what I did hear said about him (why I agree to get a beer with relatives at bars in Delaware County when I really should know better escapes me). Let's just say that his BA, HR and RBI totals no longer warrant overlooking his skin color to many of the locals.

Phillies fans hate most everybody. Bench/role players escape the local ire a bit. Pete Incaviglia was popular, though I'll hazard a guess that his surname helped in that regard. Lenny Dykstra, Dutch Daulton and John Kruk were generally popular, particularly Dykstra because, despite being well aware of seedier side (his personal malfeasance in the Philly area is legend), fans liked that he was scrappy. Pete Rose was adored (used to give my grandmother hot flashes when the camera panned his way). Yet Mike Schmidt was never well liked. Fans preferred Larry Bowa. Scott Rolen, no love. Bob Abreu, no love.

To recount, if you're not a whack job, a scrappy bench player or sloppy, but lovable, then Philly fans will put their claws into sooner or later.

Red Leader
06-12-2007, 06:24 PM
Just curious but how are Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins treated in Philly? I'd imagine both of those guys would be adored. I know some Philly fans really razzed Rollins when he swung for the fences all of the time a couple years ago, but I haven't heard word in the last 1-2 years.

M2
06-12-2007, 06:25 PM
Eric Davis got "the treatment" too. Though I'd say Barry was disliked by a lot of folks on a personal level. Not sure why.

Barry was uppity.

I saw an interview with him last week during the draft and it reminded me again what an intelligent, genuine, classy guy he is. He made more insightful comments in five minutes than most ex-jock broadcasters (or non ex-jock broadcasters for that matter) make in a season. It's a shame he's with the Nats these days.

membengal
06-12-2007, 06:31 PM
for what it's worth, I have been driven to call in to 1530, and am on hold. Not sure if I will get in or not, or how much sense I can make in a 30 second call, but will give it a try...

Joseph
06-12-2007, 06:32 PM
for what it's worth, I have been driven to call in to 1530, and am on hold. Not sure if I will get in or not, or how much sense I can make in a 30 second call, but will give it a try...

Good luck Membengal. :)

I'm sure he'll only talk over you and call you a fool, but good luck.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 06:33 PM
for what it's worth, I have been driven to call in to 1530, and am on hold. Not sure if I will get in or not, or how much sense I can make in a 30 second call, but will give it a try...

You must be Aaron...

membengal
06-12-2007, 06:33 PM
Good luck Membengal. :)

I'm sure he'll only talk over you and call you a fool, but good luck.

Sweet. Just like at work and at home!

And, yes, Matt, that be me.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 06:34 PM
Barry was uppity.

I saw an interview with him last week during the draft and it reminded me again what an intelligent, genuine, classy guy he is. He made more insightful comments in five minutes than most ex-jock broadcasters (or non ex-jock broadcasters for that matter) make in a season. It's a shame he's with the Nats these days.

I miss Barry too. I agree with everything you've said. I always found a guy like Paul O'Neill to be a terribly prickly and at times snotty guy, but boy, fans didn't give it to him like they did Barry. So I guess it was a race thing. I know it was in the case of Eric Davis. I just wasn't altogether sure if it was the same dynamic with Larkin (as I was no longer a resident of Cincy by the time Larkin was in his prime).

M2
06-12-2007, 06:36 PM
I miss Barry too. I agree with everything you've said. I always found a guy like Paul O'Neill to be a terribly prickly and at times snotty guy, but boy, fans didn't give it to him like they did Barry. So I guess it was a race thing. I know it was in the case of Eric Davis. I just wasn't altogether sure if it was the same dynamic with Larkin (as I was no longer a resident of Cincy by the time Larkin was in his prime).

I'm not sure if it was race so much as Barry went beyond being a "right to work" ballplayer.

Joseph
06-12-2007, 06:40 PM
Bravo Membengal!

You spoke quite well and should be proud of yourself. You didn't at all sound a typical caller who was dumbfounded when he came back at you and made your point quite effectively.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 06:41 PM
Bravo Membengal!

You spoke quite well and should be proud of yourself. You didn't at all sound a typical caller who was dumbfounded when he came back at you and made your point quite effectively.

I request more intelligent arguments on radio shows!!!!

:D

It makes them better

membengal
06-12-2007, 06:41 PM
Thanks, hope it came across ok.

I just think one can discuss Adam Dunn, even a sports talk host, with reference to both his strengths and weaknesses...

Falls City Beer
06-12-2007, 06:51 PM
I'm not sure if it was race so much as Barry went beyond being a "right to work" ballplayer.

Yeah. Disliked by management and rank-and-file alike. Heck of a spot.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 06:51 PM
I request more intelligent arguments on radio shows!!!!

:D

It makes them better

But what does it do for ratings? ;)

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 06:54 PM
But what does it do for ratings? ;)

I think good debate is good for ratings - so is firing people up.

They both work...they both work effectively...and they can both work together if you're good.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 07:06 PM
I generally like Lance McAllister's show, but his take on Adam Dunn makes Marty B's appear enlightened. Insulting and sophomoric doesn't begin to sum it up.

Lance is baseball punk, dense as brick and about as warm as one too.

Caveat Emperor
06-12-2007, 07:10 PM
It's the Pete Rose caricature.

It's why Reds fans love guys like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper, but love to berate guys like Griffey and Dunn. If you don't remind Marty, Lance, and the casual fan of Pete Rose, then you're not their type of player and they'll look for every flaw they can find to highlight and criticize.

Blue collar midwesternism at its finest. The deep-rooted belief that good things in life come from hard work and dedication and that anyone can be successful at anything by trying harder than the other guy. Natural ability counts for naught if it isn't paired with drive and determination -- and the guy who tries to skate on just his innate abilities will lose every time to the underdog who stays at work late, studies harder, or runs the extra mile to get the job done.

Modern American fairytales at work.

Fittingly, the living examples of that fairytale in the diamond were Pete Rose Sean Casey and Ryan Freel. Cincinnati fans want ballplayers that hustle, hustle, and then hustle a little bit more. They want a player who runs to first base on every ball put in play, and who swings the bat looking to make contact. Standing around taking a walk instead of going up to hit looks like laziness. Not laying out for balls looks like laziness. Laziness doesn't cut it, because the lazy ballplayer will never be better than the ballplayer that works hard for what he gets -- talent be damned.


Barry Larkin is one of the few great Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.

Barry got a free pass. The only thing Cincinnatians love more than hustle and hard work is another Cincinnatian.

Matt700wlw
06-12-2007, 07:16 PM
Lance is baseball punk, dense as brick and about as warm as one too.

Tell us how you really feel ;)

OldRightHander
06-12-2007, 07:42 PM
It's the Pete Rose caricature.

It's why Reds fans love guys like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper, but love to berate guys like Griffey and Dunn. If you don't remind Marty, Lance, and the casual fan of Pete Rose, then you're not their type of player and they'll look for every flaw they can find to highlight and criticize.

Barry Larkin is one of the few great Reds players from the last 20 years to escape that wrath, but then again he was also one of the most complete player in baseball history in terms of what he did well.

Life, liberty, and the pursuit of scrappyness.

westofyou
06-12-2007, 07:45 PM
Tell us how you really feel ;)

Ok.


Barry got a free pass. The only thing Cincinnatians love more than hustle and hard work is another Cincinnatian.

If Barry was white he would have owned the city.