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Benihana
06-11-2007, 02:17 PM
With Homer Bailey now in the bigs, and Joey Votto likely to join him any day now, I'd like to offer up the first Reds Top Prospect list, with 2008 and beyond in mind. New additions to the list include Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, the newest (yet still unsigned) additions to a suddenly strong minor league system. Here's my take:

1. Jay Bruce, OF High A (ETA: 2009)
Due for a call up to Chattanooga any day now, he has been lighting up the competition in the Florida State League, despite being one of its youngest players.

2. Carlos Fisher, RHP AA (ETA: 2008)
The biggest riser on the list, Fisher has done nothing but dominate at both High A and AA this year. He should at least score an invite to Spring Training next year.

3. Chris Valaika, INF Low A (ETA: 2009)
The highest peformer of last year's draft picks, Valaika should be playing in the Florida State League right now. A move to either 2B or 3B is in his future.

4. Johnny Cueto, RHP High A (ETA: 2009)
Although he has flashed inconsistency, he has performed well in his first year in the Florida State League, and even notched a victory in a spot start in AAA. He too should look to get a taste of AA by the end of the year.

5. Juan Francisco, 3B Low A (ETA: 2010/2011)
The youngest member of the list along with Mesoraco, Francisco has been posting a better OPS than last year's first rounder Stubbs at the same level, despite being almost four years younger.

6. Travis Wood, LHP High A just came back from injury, shown signs of inconsistency
7. Sean Watson, RHP Low A why he's not in Sarasota I'll never understand
8. Daryl Thompson, RHP High A getting adjusted to High A
9. Devin Mesoraco, C, Rookie (still unsigned) get him signed up today
10. Sam LeCure, RHP AA put up good numbers, probably the closest to the bigs after Fisher
11. Justin Turner, 2B Low A
12. Drew Stubbs, OF Low A
13. Todd Frazier, 3B/OF Rookie (still unsigned)
14. Calvin Medlock, RHP AA
15. Rafael Gonzalez, RHP Low A

OesterPoster
06-11-2007, 02:34 PM
Daryl Thompson is no longer in Dayton. He's made 7 starts with Sarasota.

Red Daddy
06-11-2007, 02:39 PM
Nice list...here's a few comments,

Fisher has been doing this since about midway through last year. This dominance has been going on awhile.

Juan Francisco's plate discipline is horrible at this point in his career. He almost seems to be a poor man's Wily Mo Pena. He must improve on this if he has any chance in the majors.

I would move Sean Watson up just below Fisher. This guy has been great this year. I hated this pick last year, but he's fast becoming a very solid starter.

Stubbs is doing better this year at the plate but is still striking out way too much. I hope he keeps improving!!

I never thought I'd see Gonzalez pitch successfully after all the red-flags I saw go up with him being lazy and not dedicated. I wish him continued success. He was supposed to be just a tick below Homer in terms of stuff. He should be outstanding!!

Cueto and Wood have really taken a step back. Wood has been hurt and that is what was predicted of him. Cueto has been dominant in the past, but has not been anywhere close to dominant lately.

AdamDunn
06-11-2007, 02:44 PM
Top 12:
1. Jay Bruce (no-brainer)
2. Johnny Cueto (early injury has set him back and made his stats look unspectacular. but I'm not going to count it against him)
3. Devin Mesoraco (young with lots of promise. Good defensively and fast for a catcher)
4. Sean Watson (dominated single A)
5. Carlos Fisher (domination, but I'm worried it's a one year wonder)
6. Travis Wood (injured early, but I think he'll bounce back in time)
7. Drew Stubbs (could be Jose Reyes for centerfield. He has the speed, defense, and power combination. If he could just put the bat on the ball in single A. He's running out of time since he's 22.)
8. Todd Frazier (Power potential, probably will move to 3B)
9. Chris Valaika (Contact, but can he play defense?)
10. Juan Francisco (Good power. If I remember correctly, his defense is a question. Needs to learn how to take a walk. But he has time.)
11. Sam LeCure (solid, not spectacular)
12. Daryl Thompson (dominated Low A, but that's what you'd expect from a 22 year old)

Benihana
06-11-2007, 02:57 PM
Daryl Thompson is no longer in Dayton. He's made 7 starts with Sarasota.

thanks, duly noted

lollipopcurve
06-11-2007, 03:05 PM
Votto?

Pelland? Dumatrait? Gardner?

Benihana
06-11-2007, 03:10 PM
Votto?

Pelland? Dumatrait? Gardner?

Votto will be called up any day now, so he and Bailey are off the list. Gardner is an omission, he should be on there around the same place as LeCure, maybe a little higher (8-10 range). Pelland and Dumatrait would be in the next (15-20) tier. Pelland projects to a reliever slightly behind Medlock, and Dumatrait has been awful in the last month, which worries me into thinking he may be a AAAA type player.

bucksfan2
06-11-2007, 03:26 PM
Top 12:
1. Jay Bruce (no-brainer)
2. Johnny Cueto (early injury has set him back and made his stats look unspectacular. but I'm not going to count it against him)
3. Devin Mesoraco (young with lots of promise. Good defensively and fast for a catcher)
4. Sean Watson (dominated single A)
5. Carlos Fisher (domination, but I'm worried it's a one year wonder)
6. Travis Wood (injured early, but I think he'll bounce back in time)
7. Drew Stubbs (could be Jose Reyes for centerfield. He has the speed, defense, and power combination. If he could just put the bat on the ball in single A. He's running out of time since he's 22.)
8. Todd Frazier (Power potential, probably will move to 3B)
9. Chris Valaika (Contact, but can he play defense?)
10. Juan Francisco (Good power. If I remember correctly, his defense is a question. Needs to learn how to take a walk. But he has time.)
11. Sam LeCure (solid, not spectacular)
12. Daryl Thompson (dominated Low A, but that's what you'd expect from a 22 year old)

Interesting that you have Frazier ahead of Valaika who has ripped the cover off the ball since day one with this organization. Here is mine

1. Bruce - Should be in AA and I can see him taking over for Dunn midseason next year.
2. Fisher - Has looked great all year
3. Watson - Conversion to starter is looking good so far.
4. Valaika - Maybe the best pure hitter in the system so far.
5. Cueto - Has struggled a little but I have high hopes for him.
6. Stubbs - Defense and speed there, hopefully his hitting comes along a little bit more. I would love to see an OBP of around .375 for him.
7. Thompson - Sure he is a little old for A but he has been dominant so far this year.
8. Frazier - Hopefully he can hit in the minors. A little older than Mesoraco so I give him the nod.
9. Francisco - Hopefully he developes a little better strike zone knowledge.
10. Mesoraco - He has a long way to go. Hopefully he developes nicely with the Reds.
11. Lecure - I think he could be a sloid starter in the bigs for quite a few seasons.
12. Wood - What happened to the pitcher who was dominant his rookie season?

AdamDunn
06-11-2007, 05:08 PM
Interesting that you have Frazier ahead of Valaika who has ripped the cover off the ball since day one with this organization. Here is mine

1. Bruce - Should be in AA and I can see him taking over for Dunn midseason next year.
2. Fisher - Has looked great all year
3. Watson - Conversion to starter is looking good so far.
4. Valaika - Maybe the best pure hitter in the system so far.
5. Cueto - Has struggled a little but I have high hopes for him.
6. Stubbs - Defense and speed there, hopefully his hitting comes along a little bit more. I would love to see an OBP of around .375 for him.
7. Thompson - Sure he is a little old for A but he has been dominant so far this year.
8. Frazier - Hopefully he can hit in the minors. A little older than Mesoraco so I give him the nod.
9. Francisco - Hopefully he developes a little better strike zone knowledge.
10. Mesoraco - He has a long way to go. Hopefully he developes nicely with the Reds.
11. Lecure - I think he could be a sloid starter in the bigs for quite a few seasons.
12. Wood - What happened to the pitcher who was dominant his rookie season?

I have Valaika low because he's older and doesn't have the defense to stay at short. While I have never seen him play, I have my doubts whether he can play any position, based on what I've read of him.

Also, you got to give Mesoraco some more props because of the potential he has. At least that's what I think. :D

icehole3
06-11-2007, 05:20 PM
Thats way too high for Mesoraco, lets give the kid at least the rookie league to get his feet wet, he's so young. Fisher dominated Dayton so its a 2 year wonder.

Sea Ray
06-11-2007, 10:34 PM
Thats way too high for Mesoraco, lets give the kid at least the rookie league to get his feet wet, he's so young. Fisher dominated Dayton so its a 2 year wonder.

I agree. You can't be a position player prospect until you've at least hit with a wooden bat

HokieRed
06-12-2007, 12:31 AM
What's the case for Watson being #3 or #4 when Rafael Gonzalez is not even on the list? Their numbers at Dayton are virtually identical, except that Gonzalez tends to go a little longer in each start, and Gonzalez is a year younger.

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2007, 12:42 AM
What's the case for Watson being #3 or #4 when Rafael Gonzalez is not even on the list? Their numbers at Dayton are virtually identical, except that Gonzalez tends to go a little longer in each start, and Gonzalez is a year younger.

Watson has much better peripheral numbers.

Watson:

K/9: 10.52
BB/9: 1.66
HR/9: 0.97
GO/AO: 1.17

Gonzalez:

K/9: 5.40
BB/9: 2.88
HR/9: 1.34
GO/AO: 0.92

Gonzalez' ERA has not reflected how well he has actually pitched. With average luck, his ERA would take a massive increase. Gonzalez hasn't actually pitched that well. If he continues pitching of the similar quality, he will start giving up more runs and would not be much of a candidate to do well in Sarasota.

Watson on the other hand has deserved his great success. His numbers are not a mirage. His K's and BB's blow Gonzalez out of the water. It's not even close. These numbers are more indicative of his actual success. Given time, this will be shown. I'd expect Watson to be moved up to the next level in the near future.

BigREDSfaninKY
06-12-2007, 01:03 AM
Votto will be called up any day now, so he and Bailey are off the list.

How do you see Votto being called up with Conine/Hatteberg still in Cincinnati? Expecting Hatteberg to be traded soon?

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2007, 01:17 AM
Here's my list with Bailey and Votto excluded:

1. Jay Bruce - For the obvious reasons

2. Johnny Cueto - Has really brought it on lately. He's started to progress in Sarasota, is quite young, and has a nice ceiling. Even if he doesn't work out as a starter, I think he still has a bright future in the pen.

3. Devin Mesoraco - His immense upside puts him ahead of the rest IMO. He obviously hasn't played pro ball yet, but few of the Reds' other prospects have succeeded at high levels. He's not that far behind the rest of the bunch.

4. Drew Stubbs - I'm a big fan of his potential, and even though he has lacked any kind of success, I still think his ceiling warrants this spot over the others.

5. Sean Watson - Has basically dominated Dayton in every way possible. He also has a nice upside, and should stay as starter. He is more polished than many other prospects, so he should move pretty quickly.

6. Carlos Fisher - Big breakout year merits the big jump forward. His upside isn't huge (middle rotation), but as he's already having success in AA, he's closer than just about anybody in the system.

7. Travis Wood - the injuries have been frustrating, plus he has had major command issues this season, but those things are not major concerns yet. The injuries don't threaten his future, and he hasn't pitched that much this year to be worried with the command issues. The problem is that he has remained stagnant and becasue of his issues hasn't improved this season. Still, he has plenty of talent, so as long as he stays on the field, he's a breakout candidate.

8. Darryl Thompson - Nice to see him finally get some decent health. Dominated Dayton, and has been decent in Sarasota. He's got decent potential, he's just still pretty far away. Main concern is staying on the field.

9. Tyler Pelland - His move to the bullpen has finally made him real interseting again. Since his switch, he has shown the stong ability to strike out hitters, and his control has dramatically improved. I'm a real big fan of his. Of the Reds relief prospects, he has the most upside IMO, plus he's having success in AA.

10. Juan Francisco - He's got some massive power considering his age. He's extremely raw at the plate, but is very young, and is doing well in Dayton considering. He's a boom or bust type of guy, but he's got a very high ceiling. His development will be slow, but he's one to watch.

11. Todd Frazier - Walks and power. Two things I really like, and he has hit. I think he has a very interesting bat, and am quite interested in how he will do in pro ball. Hopefully, he can stick at 3rd.

12. Sam LeCure - Low upside, but has been decent in AA, just needs to continue refining his stuff and he should be a candiate for the back of the rotation.

13. Chris Valaika - I'm probably his biggest doubter on the zone. His stick has held up in the lower minors so far, but I find it a concern that he has struck out 5 times as often as he has walked. And in rookie ball last season it was 3 times as many. Considering his power potential is limited and he may not fit in the middle of the diamond, I don't see him as anything more than an utility infielder. My thinking is that as he moves up and faces advanced competition, he is going to have a huge trouble, and his agressive approach is going to work against him.

14. Calvin Medlock - I see a limited upside, but he has flat out dominated AA. Definitely needs to be promoted to see what he can do in AAA, and hopefully end the year in the majors to see what he can do because he isn't going to improve a whole lot from here. He may be nothing more than a middle guy, but he's very likely to make it, and should provide cheap production.

15. Kyle Lotzkar - Of course he's extremely raw, but I like the package he offers. With two potential plus pitches, I really like his upside as a power arm. Patience is required, but there's little depth in the system, so Lotzkar gets the nod. The final spot came down to Lotzkar and Ravin for me.

reds44
06-12-2007, 02:58 AM
No way I would have Stubbs over Watson. I'm going to see how are rookies hit before I put any of them on the list, and Votto has played 0 games in the majors, he is still a prospect.

Bruce
Votto
Cueto
Watson
Fisher
Thompson
Wood
Francisco
Medlock

Stubbs doesn't even make my top 10. Right now I see him and Dickerson as very similar players. Only difference is Stubbs walks a but more then Dickerson, and Dickerson is older and higher up in the organization.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 10:26 AM
How do you see Votto being called up with Conine/Hatteberg still in Cincinnati? Expecting Hatteberg to be traded soon?

Yes, Votto has another few weeks in the minors at the most. He will be on the Reds by August 1 at the latest, guaranteed.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 10:29 AM
Here's my list with Bailey and Votto excluded:
3. Devin Mesoraco - His immense upside puts him ahead of the rest IMO. He obviously hasn't played pro ball yet, but few of the Reds' other prospects have succeeded at high levels. He's not that far behind the rest of the bunch.

4. Drew Stubbs - I'm a big fan of his potential, and even though he has lacked any kind of success, I still think his ceiling warrants this spot over the others.

15. Kyle Lotzkar - Of course he's extremely raw, but I like the package he offers. With two potential plus pitches, I really like his upside as a power arm. Patience is required, but there's little depth in the system, so Lotzkar gets the nod. The final spot came down to Lotzkar and Ravin for me.

I'm sorry, but it is very difficult to include the HS guys on the list now. I threw Mesoraco on there simply because he is the only catcher with a dime, but its still a stretch. While I like Lotzkar, there is no reason for him to be on there over a Josh Ravin, who also has no business on the list at this point.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 10:31 AM
No way I would have Stubbs over Watson. I'm going to see how are rookies hit before I put any of them on the list, and Votto has played 0 games in the majors, he is still a prospect.


Stubbs doesn't even make my top 10. Right now I see him and Dickerson as very similar players. Only difference is Stubbs walks a but more then Dickerson, and Dickerson is older and higher up in the organization.

While Stubbs does have more "upside", I generally agree. Stubbs is a 23-year old who can't dominate in Dayton. Right now he is almost turning into a fringe propsect IMO. If he doesn't improve soon, this offseason he won't sniff the top 10.

IslandRed
06-12-2007, 11:30 AM
I have Valaika low because he's older and doesn't have the defense to stay at short. While I have never seen him play, I have my doubts whether he can play any position, based on what I've read of him.

He's only six months older than Frazier. :p:

I'm curious as to what you've read that would lead you to the conclusion above. I've never read anything that suggests he's a subpar defender, only that he lacks the range of a big-league shortstop.

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2007, 02:23 PM
I'm sorry, but it is very difficult to include the HS guys on the list now. I threw Mesoraco on there simply because he is the only catcher with a dime, but its still a stretch. While I like Lotzkar, there is no reason for him to be on there over a Josh Ravin, who also has no business on the list at this point.

I disagree completely.

I did my list in the thinking of if I had to get rid of a prospect for nothing which one would I get rid of? I sure wouldn't want to lose Mesoraco at the cost of say Stubbs, Watson, etc.

Another point is, if say Carlos Fisher entered the draft last Thursday with everyone aware of how he had pitched in pro ball to this date, where do you think he would go? I could guarantee that Meseraco would go well before him, becasue he is the better prospect. Fisher at this point would be the equivelant of a polished college pitcher with low upside, the types that can be round in the lower end of the 1st round, or into the second (at best).

I chose that of Lotzkar and the rest of the prospects, I would rather keep Lotzkar than the rest Just because he hasn't played pro ball doesn't mean he can't make a prospect list. Hell, BA does it every year and they have some idea what they are doing. And just for the record, BA had Ravin ranked number 13 last season in their guidde. BA is not the end to this discussion obviously, but I would say #13 is a pretty good ballpark for where he should be ranked. He may be far away, but he has massive potential. He has everyright to make this list.

I completely disagree with your list. I think you put too much emphasis on polish and likeliness to make the majors than actual talent. I sure hope that the Reds have at least 3 prospects better than a guy who may only have a ceiling as a utility infielder. Or that Justin Turner, a guy who doesn't project to be a regular is rated ahead of Drew Stubbs, a guy who can already field at the major league level and has enormous potential. I know his flaws, but he is definitely more valuable at this point than back-up infielders.

Red Daddy
06-12-2007, 03:54 PM
I totally agree with you Kearns!!!! You have to judge on potential. That is the position of Baseball America. These guys drafted in the first round have tons of potential and that must be considered. They may not pan out but most prospects don't pan out anyway including ones who pound the ball in the minors.

Watson is my personal example. I hated that pick!!! His numbers were horrible last year, but he was a 2nd round pick with a mid 90s FB and a plus breaking ball. Steve Kelly on the other hand had a decent year last year but that doesn't mean Kelly, who throws in the high 80s, is a better prospect than Watson in potential.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 04:55 PM
I disagree completely.

I did my list in the thinking of if I had to get rid of a prospect for nothing which one would I get rid of? I sure wouldn't want to lose Mesoraco at the cost of say Stubbs, Watson, etc.

Another point is, if say Carlos Fisher entered the draft last Thursday with everyone aware of how he had pitched in pro ball to this date, where do you think he would go? I could guarantee that Meseraco would go well before him, becasue he is the better prospect. Fisher at this point would be the equivelant of a polished college pitcher with low upside, the types that can be round in the lower end of the 1st round, or into the second (at best).

I chose that of Lotzkar and the rest of the prospects, I would rather keep Lotzkar than the rest Just because he hasn't played pro ball doesn't mean he can't make a prospect list. Hell, BA does it every year and they have some idea what they are doing. And just for the record, BA had Ravin ranked number 13 last season in their guidde. BA is not the end to this discussion obviously, but I would say #13 is a pretty good ballpark for where he should be ranked. He may be far away, but he has massive potential. He has everyright to make this list.

I completely disagree with your list. I think you put too much emphasis on polish and likeliness to make the majors than actual talent. I sure hope that the Reds have at least 3 prospects better than a guy who may only have a ceiling as a utility infielder. Or that Justin Turner, a guy who doesn't project to be a regular is rated ahead of Drew Stubbs, a guy who can already field at the major league level and has enormous potential. I know his flaws, but he is definitely more valuable at this point than back-up infielders.

Well I completely disagree with your list! And that, my young friend, is what makes the world go 'round. You can't sit here and tell me what I "have to judge on." I agree, the ceiling of the prospect is very important, but their track record is quite important as well. You can talk about Baseball America and how they evaluate the Reds Top Prospects year after year, but they are the same publication that will stick a guy at the top of a list simply because of their draft status. (See: Gruler, Espinosa, Sardinha, etc.) Now I'm not saying that ceiling is not an enormous factor when evaluating a prospect (hence, I put Francisco in the top 10), but you have to pay attention to age, track record, minor league level, and other factors as well. Drew Stubbs has done absolutely nothing since being drafted in the first round a year ago. Therefore, he does not make the top 10 in my book. Yes, he has a great glove, and has some potential at the plate, and that is why he hasn't completely dropped off of the top 15 list, but his likelihood to be a starter at the major league level based off of his performance as a pro so far has greatly diminished.

And don't get me wrong, I'm very high on the young pitchers- Ravin, Lotzkar, etc. as well as Mesoraco. However right now, I would never put a guy who has never played a meaningful game on a bigger stage than a high school in rural Pennsylvania ahead of guys who have dominated at AA. I just wouldn't.

As far as young pitchers without any professional track record making the list just on pure potential go, if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles. Josh Ravin might have made BA's list last year, but so did all the guys listed above, and that was before the Reds farm system came on really strong (as it has this year).

Red Daddy
06-12-2007, 05:54 PM
As far as young pitchers without any professional track record making the list just on pure potential go, if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles. Josh Ravin might have made BA's list last year, but so did all the guys listed above, and that was before the Reds farm system came on really strong (as it has this year).[/QUOTE]

Gruler, Gillman, Howington, and Aramboles were great prospects before INJURIES. You can't predict that. All of them had great stuff and was deserving of a high ranking.

Prospect ranking is about who has the best shot at the majors, not who is doing best in the minors. A drafted pitcher hitting 95 on the gun with a plus breaking ball has a chance to make it to the majors where some guy like Steve Kelly who only throws about 88 and dominates AA has no chance.

Red Daddy
06-12-2007, 05:54 PM
As far as young pitchers without any professional track record making the list just on pure potential go, if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles. Josh Ravin might have made BA's list last year, but so did all the guys listed above, and that was before the Reds farm system came on really strong (as it has this year).

Gruler, Gillman, Howington, and Aramboles were great prospects before INJURIES. You can't predict that. All of them had great stuff and was deserving of a high ranking.

Prospect ranking is about who has the best shot at the majors, not who is doing best in the minors. A drafted pitcher hitting 95 on the gun with a plus breaking ball has a chance to make it to the majors where some guy like Steve Kelly who only throws about 88 and dominates AA has no chance.[/QUOTE]

Patrick Bateman
06-12-2007, 07:07 PM
Well I completely disagree with your list! And that, my young friend, is what makes the world go 'round. You can't sit here and tell me what I "have to judge on." I agree, the ceiling of the prospect is very important, but their track record is quite important as well. You can talk about Baseball America and how they evaluate the Reds Top Prospects year after year, but they are the same publication that will stick a guy at the top of a list simply because of their draft status. (See: Gruler, Espinosa, Sardinha, etc.) Now I'm not saying that ceiling is not an enormous factor when evaluating a prospect (hence, I put Francisco in the top 10), but you have to pay attention to age, track record, minor league level, and other factors as well. Drew Stubbs has done absolutely nothing since being drafted in the first round a year ago. Therefore, he does not make the top 10 in my book. Yes, he has a great glove, and has some potential at the plate, and that is why he hasn't completely dropped off of the top 15 list, but his likelihood to be a starter at the major league level based off of his performance as a pro so far has greatly diminished.

And don't get me wrong, I'm very high on the young pitchers- Ravin, Lotzkar, etc. as well as Mesoraco. However right now, I would never put a guy who has never played a meaningful game on a bigger stage than a high school in rural Pennsylvania ahead of guys who have dominated at AA. I just wouldn't.

As far as young pitchers without any professional track record making the list just on pure potential go, if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles. Josh Ravin might have made BA's list last year, but so did all the guys listed above, and that was before the Reds farm system came on really strong (as it has this year).

I'm not telling you how to do things, I'm telling you how the most successful prospect graders do things. They aren't the definitive answer, but I don't see the logic of rating guys who don't project to be good major leaguers even if they do develop over guys who potentially do, even if the odds are worse.

The same goes for Medlock. Sure he is going to make the majors, but if it's only as a middle reliever, what is so exciting about him? Middle relievers are easy to come by (at least they should be) and simply aren't worth that much. Drew Stubbs has obviously struggled, but when you are as talented as he is, he needs to take priority over potential middle relievers.

Here's an example I like to think about. If you were starting a farm system from scratch, would you take 15 guys who all project to be role players, middle relievers, and fringe starters, or would you take 15 guys who all project very highly even if say only 2 of them work out?

If I were a major league team, I would take the high ceiling group every time. The ones that do develop are so much harder to come by than middle relief types. If you have the good players, you can fill in holes much easier than if you are trying to find the core players.

Every organization has guys the calibre of Turner or Medlock. These guys are not uncommon. But not every team can throw multiple talents like Stubbs at you. Even Stubbs is likely to make the majors even if it's only as a role player because he does laready have major league assets. All he has to do is hit to the calibre of a Norris Hopper.

My point was bringing up BA, is that you said that Ravin doesn't even merit consideration on the top 15 list. If BA has him in their top 15, then Ravin definitely merits consideration. You don't have to include him by any means, but simply ignoring him is foolish IMO. BA is the most successful at what they do especially at judging projectability, so I would take their ranking of Ravin at 13 as something worth consideration, even if the numbers don't support it yet.

Some guys like Howington are bad examples. He really started to get huge press when he started itching well in AA. He was rated highly at times when he had pro ball success too. That goes for guys like Richie Gardner, Thomas Pauley, Dumatrait, Chick, Basham, etc. who all got high grades because of their success at young ages.

I took into consideration all of the different factors in prospect evaluation in making my list, and I don't see how the success of Fisher makes him a number 2 prospect, when even if he develops he will only be a complimentary player. Success only goes so far. Without the tools, success in some case can be meaningless. Stubbs is obviously struggling, but he isn't exactly Casrto. He is still holding his own, and IMO, is pretty close to breaking through.


if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles

By the way, I remember each and every one of those guys. I have followed the Reds in every way possible since I was 11 (during the 1999 season) and have been a Reds fan since I was about 3.

I know the stories of those guys. Mottl was never considered a good prospect. Snare wasn't great either. Aramboles actually showed success, he's hardly the same case as Ravin.

mth123
06-12-2007, 08:53 PM
My own personal rule on prospects is to stick with guys who have had success in a full season league. I know there are exceptions, but I think that there are an awful lot of top picks who fade away (John Oliver says hello). My list w/o Homer, Votto or McBeth :

1. Jay Bruce
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Carlos Fisher
4. Sean Watson
5. Juan Francisco
6. Chris Valaika
7. Calvin Medlock
8. Rafael Gonzalez (Rising)
9. Daryl Thompson
10. Tyler Pelland
11. Adam Rosales
12. Travis Wood (and Falling)
13. Justin Turner
14. Sam Lecure
15. Carlos Guevara

Sleeper to watch: Marcos Mateo

HokieRed
06-12-2007, 10:22 PM
mth, I like your list. Seems balanced and reasonable, taking into account a variety of things that make for and indicate success and promise. I want to look at it more carefully, but I do like the fact you've got Rafael Gonzalez on it, though maybe just a little high, and also Adam Rosales, whose production is solid and who deserves an immediate promotion. Stubbs is a big disappointment, but I think I'd still have him in the top 15 on ceiling.

Superdude
06-13-2007, 01:51 AM
1) Jay Bruce: Obvious
2) Johnny Cueto: Looked mediocre early in the year, but is coming on lately. Power stuff and dominating '06 numbers are too hard to ignore.
3) Sean Watson: A promotion is in order here, and a successful one could move him above Cueto in my mind. Has the stuff, size, and polish to be a well above average starter.
4) Devin Mesoraco: Great tools, and the way he shot up draft boards conjures up memories of someone else on this list... "Jay Bruce"
5) Drew Stubbs: I backed him up last year, but I'm quickly losing patience. His numbers are REALLY not good at all right now. This ranking is based solely on the fact that his cieling is about as high as anyone.
6) Carlos Fisher: Groundball/Strikeout Fisher knows how it's done. How much his K rate holds up will decide his potential. Looks like a good #3-4 innings eater in the making.
7) Chris Valaika: Solid. :cool:
8) Travis Wood: We've all been frustrated by his season, but you can't overlook his stuff or what he's done the last two years. The upside is still there.
9) Todd Frazier: Looks like a great pick at this point, especially if he sticks at third
10) Juan Francisco: great tools + poor approach = cautious optimism. If his batting average holds up, he's an ideal #5-6 hitter.
11) Sam Lecure: Has gotten results at AA and his stuff is good enough that he shouldn't pull a Steve Kelly.
12) Daryl Thompson: Eat it Bowden!
13) Tyler Pelland: Guevara and Medlock are good, but he's the only one of the three who could be a late inning shut down guy.
14) Kyle Lotzkar: I hear the argument about not having experience, but I have a hard time placing a 17 year old with his stuff below "potential" middle relievers and utility players.
15) Calvin Medlock: Should be in the majors right now Wayne!

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2007, 02:11 AM
11. Adam Rosales


Okay, I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but these prospect lists are bugging me. I don't see any argument for why Rosales is rated ahead of Stubbs. I'm not trying to be snippy here, I just don't see it.

Last season, at an older age than Stubbs, Rosales struggled just as much as Stubbs (if not more) is now. I actually see more in Stubbs' stats as he was showing better on base skills. The only advantage Rosales had was doubles, but he also did that while being a half year older.

Now of course Rosales has taken a step forward this year, but his stats are not all that great for a 24 year old. He needs to be doing this type of stuff in the high minors considering he doesn't have a lot of projection left. Plus he still hasn't developed much power. So basically, we are talikng about a guy that has major questions about his bat, is playing at a level below his age, can't field, and doesn't play a skill position. I hate to tear into a guy like this, but he has basically nothing going for him. He doesn't posess one asset that makes him an even mildly intriguing major league calibre player.

Stubbs is too a little old for his level, but I like what I'm seeing in his plate approach,and if that can continue he just needs the power to come along. Considering he has displayed big time power in college, I do like his chances of developing to a degree here. There's the possibility it remains absent, but again the tools are there for it to happen. In Rosales' case, the tools are non existent.

Add that to a guy who can already play big time defense at a skill position, and you really don't need the bat to develop to that huge of a degree. He just needs to be able to OPS around .750 to be a useful starter. Stubbs is not close yet, but he doesn't need to improve at nearly the rate Rosales does. In Rosales' case, he needs to get towards the .850 level, and quite frankly, at the age of 24, he is only able to do that in high A ball.

I honestly can not think of one reason to rate Rosales ahead of Stubbs, and I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

reds44
06-13-2007, 02:14 AM
Curious Austin,

What exactly about Stubbs do you like so much? Is it just his upside? How long can you let him live off of the potential. Eventually the potential has to amount to something. Would you say my Chris Dickerson comparison is unfair?

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2007, 02:30 AM
Curious Austin,

What exactly about Stubbs do you like so much? Is it just his upside? How long can you let him live off of the potential. Eventually the potential has to amount to something. Would you say my Chris Dickerson comparison is unfair?

What I like is that he can play one of the most skillful positions at an extremely high level, while also carrying monumental potential. It's not all potential with Stubbs, he alrady does posess major league skills. The fielding in itself makes it very likely that he can play as a 4th OF'der down the line even if his bat doesn't come along to the fullest potential.

One point that I find important, is that coming out of college, Stubbs was known as being a 'project' and that his power skills were raw. it's not like he was expected to come into the league blasting homers everywhere. I find that important to a degree. He was supposed to be slowly blossom, so for that reason, I have excercised patience in this instance. Knowing his other tools, I'm willing to wait a little longer for that power to come into play while his body continues to mature. Plus Stubbs has always been a little bit better than Dickerson potential wise in basically every aspect.

Dickserson is indeed cut from the same cloth. The one main diffreence is that Stubbs has 3 years on Dickerson. Dickerson too had raw power, but at this point, he's at the age where there's little projection left. Stubbs has a couple of more years before that power potential should be written off. I actually like Dickerson, and I'm hopeful that he can turn into a reserve OF'der next season if his bat comes on.

The point is, that with Stubbs' exceptional ability to field, he doesn't need to reach his fullest hitting potential to be starting calibre. For much of the other Reds' prospects things need to go absolutely perfect for them to be starting calibre players. That's not true for Stubbs. He's one of the few guys with all-star potential, but if his power doesn't fully develop (but is there for say 15 homers), and he can continue his decent plate discipline, he can be a very nice player to have around.

I can certianly understand arguments for putting a guy like Watson over Stubbs, and I found myself with a tough decision there, but putting guys with ceilings as back-ups/fringe starters ahead of him really bugs me.

mth123
06-13-2007, 05:38 AM
I honestly can not think of one reason to rate Rosales ahead of Stubbs, and I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

Here is why IMO. When I look at a prospect, I try to envision what his role will be on the major league team. Its why I may give more credence to a relief pitcher than a 5 tool OF in some cases. IMO a guy who can come in and pitch effectively in the 7th inning is more valuable than Reggie Taylor or Dewayne Wise even though when looking at them as young raw players the tools possessed by a Taylor or Wise suggests they provide more hope than say a Todd Coffey or a Scott Sullivan. Truth is, upon reaching the big leagues, the guy who can fill the more critical role is more valuablle even if his "tools" may not suggest that he is.

In the specific cases of Stubbs versus Rosales its simple for me. Rosales has some ability to play in the IF while having a bat that may prove useful. Generally guys who can play in the IF (even if it isn't very well) have a chance to move into the OF and be ok out there (there are tons of examples). OTOH, guys who are outfielders by trade rarely can make the move to the IF with as much success (with the exception being a move to 1B). So taking that into account, I think that for Stubbs to have much value at all, he'll have to develop into a legitimate everyday CF who actually hits enough to justify his being there (as opposed to a guy who plays by default as is the case with some CF these days). I personally don't see evidence yet that Stubbs will do that. At this point all that I see is a younger version of Dewayne Wise or Reggie Taylor. A guy who can go get 'em with speed and some power that doesn't look like it will emerge frequently enough in game sitiuations to warrant more than a role as a 5th OF who comes in for defense on a double switch or starts occasionally to give a guy a rest. That isn't all that valuable and can be plucked off of any AAA roster with regularity.

Rosales on the other hand, simply by virtue of his versatility (I know that he isn't the best defender and that I am projecting some of this "versatility" on him, but with prospects projecting what they'll do in the majors is really what we're doing) I could see ending up in a supersub role. He may not. He may wash out. But when I look toward 2010 or so, I'd rather have Ryan Freel (which I optimistically project for Rosales) than Dewayne Wise (which I project for Stubbs).

Benihana
06-13-2007, 12:12 PM
The only "fringe/backup" player on my list would be Turner. Middle relievers are easy to come by you say? Ask Wayne Krivsky about that one.

Drew Stubbs has done nothing since he was drafted. NOTHING.
You talk about him being able to compete at a high level? What level is that? The Big 12? I like high ceiling guys over safe players most of the time. In fact, I was one of the few people on this board DEFENDING the Homer Bailey pick in a year where it was considered taboo drafting a HS pitcher in the first round. However, if the past fifteen years of the Reds organization has taught you anything, its that you have to consider a player's track record as well. You CANNOT just throw people up there because they showed a lot of potential before they were professionals. Yes, a lot of the players I listed washed out because of injuries, but that is exactly the kind of risk associated with HS pitchers, and why I WILL NOT consider Lotzkar, Ravin, or any other HS pitcher for a top 10 prospect list until they have succeeded in a full professional season without a devastating injury.

Kc61
06-13-2007, 12:25 PM
After Bailey, Bruce and Votto, I see a system with some depth of good prospects, but I would have a hard time ranking them because nobody stands out. All the good ones either have had spotty performances of late (Cueto, Wood) or are college guys now at very low levels (Watson, Valaika) or have generally not been projected that high (Fisher). Hopefully some will emerge, but it's hard to tell which ones.

As for Stubbs, my only comment is that I'd like a dollar for every five tool athlete who failed because he ultimately couldn't hit. Hitting is usually the toughest skill to develop and the real top guys can do it. So far, Stubbs looks like a great athlete who -- like so many other great athletes in baseball -- may not have the bat. So if I did rank the players, he wouldn't be very high at this point.

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2007, 02:32 PM
The only "fringe/backup" player on my list would be Turner. Middle relievers are easy to come by you say? Ask Wayne Krivsky about that one.

Drew Stubbs has done nothing since he was drafted. NOTHING.
You talk about him being able to compete at a high level? What level is that? The Big 12? I like high ceiling guys over safe players most of the time. In fact, I was one of the few people on this board DEFENDING the Homer Bailey pick in a year where it was considered taboo drafting a HS pitcher in the first round. However, if the past fifteen years of the Reds organization has taught you anything, its that you have to consider a player's track record as well. You CANNOT just throw people up there because they showed a lot of potential before they were professionals. Yes, a lot of the players I listed washed out because of injuries, but that is exactly the kind of risk associated with HS pitchers, and why I WILL NOT consider Lotzkar, Ravin, or any other HS pitcher for a top 10 prospect list until they have succeeded in a full professional season without a devastating injury.

All of those points are more than fair, but on thsi thread, I have seen the majority of posters base Stubbs' ramking almost entirely on stats rather than tools/fielding.

Maybe I overrate tools and ceiling which I can more than accept, but I don't see what there is to gain with a Medlock or Rosales. If the highest projection for a player is a middle reliever/back-up, then I don't see why all the fuss, because there's a pretty good chance they won't even reach their modest potential.

Middle relievers are easy to find. Krivsky has actually found plenty of middle relievers. He just hasn't found anyone good that can pitch the late innings. What I see in Medlock is more of the same. A guy you might be able to throw out there in the 6th inning, but not a guy that you want throwing in high leverage situations. And that is basically his ceiling. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

I'll I'm sayng is that I prefer prospects that have hope for some level of success (ie. raw prospects with high ceilings) over guys who have basically zero shot at it (Rosales, Turner, etc.). Stubbs' chances of reaching his potential are not phenomenal, but at least there is something there that gives you a chance. I can see rating guys like Watson over him when they have shown potential and success, but I don't see the point of rating potential role players that every team can find with ease in the top 10.

Benihana
06-13-2007, 02:51 PM
All of those points are more than fair, but on thsi thread, I have seen the majority of posters base Stubbs' ramking almost entirely on stats rather than tools/fielding.

Maybe I overrate tools and ceiling which I can more than accept, but I don't see what there is to gain with a Medlock or Rosales. If the highest projection for a player is a middle reliever/back-up, then I don't see why all the fuss, because there's a pretty good chance they won't even reach their modest potential.

Middle relievers are easy to find. Krivsky has actually found plenty of middle relievers. He just hasn't found anyone good that can pitch the late innings. What I see in Medlock is more of the same. A guy you might be able to throw out there in the 6th inning, but not a guy that you want throwing in high leverage situations. And that is basically his ceiling. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

I'll I'm sayng is that I prefer prospects that have hope for some level of success (ie. raw prospects with high ceilings) over guys who have basically zero shot at it (Rosales, Turner, etc.). Stubbs' chances of reaching his potential are not phenomenal, but at least there is something there that gives you a chance. I can see rating guys like Watson over him when they have shown potential and success, but I don't see the point of rating potential role players that every team can find with ease in the top 10.


That's fine. I never rated Rosales or Turner in the Top 10. I don't even consider Rosales a prospect at all. Ditto for Steve Kelly (Red Daddy, I don't know where you got that from).

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2007, 03:52 PM
That's fine. I never rated Rosales or Turner in the Top 10. I don't even consider Rosales a prospect at all. Ditto for Steve Kelly (Red Daddy, I don't know where you got that from).

Fine, top 15 or whatever. So what is it that you exacty see in Turner to merit a top 15 choice?

Benihana
06-13-2007, 04:20 PM
I see a 2B that had success at the highest level in college and, unlike Drew Stubbs, has MAINTAINED that level of success at Dayton, posting an OPS of .840. Also, by all accounts he has a reasonable glove at 2B.

Don't get me wrong, I doubt that Turner is anything more than a fringe prospect, but he has only one year of professional ball under his belt, and has so far done nothing but produce, more so than any other player in last year's draft other than Watson and Valaika. IMO he, along with those other two, deserves a promotion to Sarasota, and merits a ranking in the 11-20 range in the Reds organization.

FWIW, anybody with over a year of professional ball under their belt that ranks outside of the top 10 is nothing more than a fringe prospect, at least, at this point.

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2007, 05:30 PM
I see a 2B that had success at the highest level in college and, unlike Drew Stubbs, has MAINTAINED that level of success at Dayton, posting an OPS of .840. Also, by all accounts he has a reasonable glove at 2B.

Don't get me wrong, I doubt that Turner is anything more than a fringe prospect, but he has only one year of professional ball under his belt, and has so far done nothing but produce, more so than any other player in last year's draft other than Watson and Valaika. IMO he, along with those other two, deserves a promotion to Sarasota, and merits a ranking in the 11-20 range in the Reds organization.

FWIW, anybody with over a year of professional ball under their belt that ranks outside of the top 10 is nothing more than a fringe prospect, at least, at this point.


I might agree with you if Turner was really tearing the cover off the ball. His .840 OPS is nice, but knowing his limited potential, it's not enough to make up for it in my opinion.

That's where I like to use stats for prospects. If he was performing so well despite the scouting reports, I would have to really assume that the reports are dead wrong. In Turner's case, he's playing pretty solidly, but isn't doing so fantastic that he's proving the scouts wrong. If he was OPSing around .900, then i would be right there with you. But as of now, with the overall package, I don't see that he's done enough to merit true prospect status. To me, the only reason he is getting any kind of publicity here, is that his stats look better by comparsion, rather than actually playing well enough to really extinguish some of the doubts about his tools.

I agree though, it would be nice to see him in Sarasota in the not so distant future to see if his hitting skills are for real.

HokieRed
06-13-2007, 11:18 PM
Going into tonight's games, Drew Stubbs had 60 hits, 17 for extra bases. That's under 30% of his hits. Adam Rosales had 68 hits, 33 for extra bases, or very close to 50%. I would put Stubbs higher on the list because of potential and ceiling, though I become more dubious about him every day. But Rosales has, by the above measure, considerably more power. And IMHO anybody who has almost half of his hits go for extra bases is a serious prospect. What Rosales needs above all right now is a promotion so that he, Krivsky, and the rest of us can get a better read on his potential. 50% of hits for extra bases marks players with real ability. Don't overlook Rosales.

Superdude
06-13-2007, 11:45 PM
What Rosales needs above all right now is a promotion so that he, Krivsky, and the rest of us can get a better read on his potential. 50% of hits for extra bases marks players with real ability. Don't overlook Rosales.

If Rosales was still a shortstop, he'd be getting plenty of prospect props from me, but the move to first is what killed his "shimmer". I'm not saying he should still be at short, but a guy's cieling drops pretty drastically when he falls across the entire defensive spectrum. He's gonna have to keep hitting and hitting a lot if he wants to be anything more than a platoon/back up guy right now. He definitely needs a promotion though.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2007, 12:11 AM
Going into tonight's games, Drew Stubbs had 60 hits, 17 for extra bases. That's under 30% of his hits. Adam Rosales had 68 hits, 33 for extra bases, or very close to 50%. I would put Stubbs higher on the list because of potential and ceiling, though I become more dubious about him every day. But Rosales has, by the above measure, considerably more power. And IMHO anybody who has almost half of his hits go for extra bases is a serious prospect. What Rosales needs above all right now is a promotion so that he, Krivsky, and the rest of us can get a better read on his potential. 50% of hits for extra bases marks players with real ability. Don't overlook Rosales.

Being a 24 year old 1st basemen, his hitting doesn't warrant propsect status for me considering he's doing it in high A. If he continues doing it in AA, he may deserve some recognition, but as SD said, he needs to really hit if he's going to be a 1st basemen. Not being a SS killed his chances in my mind.

mth123
06-14-2007, 06:11 AM
Being a 24 year old 1st basemen, his hitting doesn't warrant propsect status for me considering he's doing it in high A. If he continues doing it in AA, he may deserve some recognition, but as SD said, he needs to really hit if he's going to be a 1st basemen. Not being a SS killed his chances in my mind.

I don't get the impression that he is at 1B because that is the long term plan for him. I think they have players for all the other spots that they want to look at and 1B is sparse in the lower part of the organization. I think they do know that he is not ever going to be an everyday SS again and moved him off of the position to get a look at some one else. I have him on my list based primarily on the fact that he has played SS, is now playing 1B and I suspect that he will end up being a multi-position plug-in type who has enough bat to be useful. If his future is as a full-time 1B, then I agree and he not only drops out of my top 15, but probably out of my top 30.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2007, 10:08 AM
I think the odds are nil that Votto is called up this season. Traded, maybe; but called up? Not a chance. The guy is the opposite of a Krivsky player.

Benihana
06-14-2007, 10:12 AM
I think the odds are nil that Votto is called up this season. Traded, maybe; but called up? Not a chance. The guy is the opposite of a Krivsky player.

I'll take the other side of this bet.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2007, 10:14 AM
I'll take the other side of this bet.

What are they going to do? Use him as a pinch hitter?

Benihana
06-14-2007, 10:17 AM
What are they going to do? Use him as a pinch hitter?

Hopefully Hatteberg will be traded by the deadline a la Joe Randa. Then you'll see Votto.

chicoruiz
06-14-2007, 10:24 AM
At least it's nice that the Reds have at least one player at every position who has a shot at being on somebody's list:

C- Mesoraco
1B- Votto
2B- Valaika
3B- Francisco
SS- Janisch
OF- Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce

I'm not quite ready to call that the starting lineup of the 2013 Reds or anything, but at least there's something resembling a prospect at every slot.

Benihana
06-14-2007, 10:26 AM
At least it's nice that the Reds have at least one player at every position who has a shot at being on somebody's list:

C- Mesoraco
1B- Votto
2B- Valaika
3B- Francisco
SS- Janisch
OF- Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce

I'm not quite ready to call that the starting lineup of the 2013 Reds or anything, but at least there's something resembling a prospect at every slot.

Wait and see, Cozart or Soto may/should replace Janish in the next few months. But I agree with your overall sentiment.

AdamDunn
06-14-2007, 11:39 AM
At least it's nice that the Reds have at least one player at every position who has a shot at being on somebody's list:

C- Mesoraco
1B- Votto
2B- Valaika
3B- Francisco
SS- Janisch
OF- Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce

I'm not quite ready to call that the starting lineup of the 2013 Reds or anything, but at least there's something resembling a prospect at every slot.

Hamilton in the outfield? Can Janish stay at SS.

BTW, I was looking to backup what I said earlier in this thread about Valaika being a bad defender... can't find it. So my bad.

Superdude
06-14-2007, 12:17 PM
From everything I've read, Janish has Gold Glove potential, but defense can be a tricky thing to judge from a scouting report. I think it's safe to say he won't have to move anytime time soon though.

dougdirt
06-14-2007, 07:28 PM
Janish won't be moving from SS to another position if the Reds view him as a starting option.

reds44
06-14-2007, 07:44 PM
At least it's nice that the Reds have at least one player at every position who has a shot at being on somebody's list:

C- Mesoraco
1B- Votto
2B- Valaika
3B- Francisco
SS- Janisch
OF- Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce

I'm not quite ready to call that the starting lineup of the 2013 Reds or anything, but at least there's something resembling a prospect at every slot.
I'll be absolutely stunned if Francisco is a ML 3rd baseman. Stunned. Hopefully Dickerson or Stubbs can come up and push Hamilton to RF, or the Reds go out and get Hunter (or ant free agent CFer) in the offseason.

dougdirt
06-14-2007, 07:50 PM
At least for right now I am with you reds44. Francisco has so many defensive problems at third base that a position change is in his future. Good thing for him he has the power to play nearly everywhere.

reds44
06-14-2007, 08:06 PM
No doubt. He was COF/1B written all over him.

HokieRed
06-14-2007, 08:52 PM
Anybody think Craig Tatum is creeping toward top 15 status? .774 OPS going into tonight; .960 plus for June so far. Needs a move to Chattanooga, and, if he could do the job there, he'd be right on schedule for a catcher.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2007, 09:06 PM
Anybody think Craig Tatum is creeping toward top 15 status? .774 OPS going into tonight; .960 plus for June so far. Needs a move to Chattanooga, and, if he could do the job there, he'd be right on schedule for a catcher.

His plate discipline is still really disgusting.

He has 36 K's and 5 BB's. He hasn't really improved much at all this season except for maybe a little power wise. Still, his with his discipline and limited ability to hit the ball, I still have trouble seeing him as much of anything.

HokieRed
06-14-2007, 11:55 PM
Plate discipline can be measured different ways. Tatum strikes out one time in 5 AB's, Jay Bruce about 1 in 4, Stubbs 1 every 3.5. Tatum doesn't walk a lot, and of course I'd like to see him walk more, but he does make contact more often than Bruce or Stubbs. Also, nearly 40 % of his hits are for extra bases; Stubbs, less than 30%. After tonight, Tatum's OPS will be near .800, near 1.000 for June. Those are promising numbers for a catcher, IMHO.

Patrick Bateman
06-15-2007, 12:38 AM
Plate discipline can be measured different ways. Tatum strikes out one time in 5 AB's, Jay Bruce about 1 in 4, Stubbs 1 every 3.5. Tatum doesn't walk a lot, and of course I'd like to see him walk more, but he does make contact more often than Bruce or Stubbs. Also, nearly 40 % of his hits are for extra bases; Stubbs, less than 30%. After tonight, Tatum's OPS will be near .800, near 1.000 for June. Those are promising numbers for a catcher, IMHO.

When you strike out 7 times more than you walk you are doing something very wrong at the plate. Those are numbers of a guy taking an agrressive approach without the ability to hit the ball every time. If you are going to be agressive, you better be able to put the bat on the ball.

I have always actually liked Tatum, but as a 24 year old in high A, his numbers don't do a whole lot for me. Hopefully the recent hot streak is a sign of good things to come.

M2
06-16-2007, 01:01 AM
You could make an argument that Drew Stubbs doesn't even on the Dayton top 10 list at this moment.

Eric_Davis
06-16-2007, 06:31 AM
I would give Fisher Belisle's next start or two. Then send him to AAA. It's not going to hurt him to get a taste of the bigs. I would think it would wet his appetite and encourage some aggressiveness at AAA....and might make the AAA players seem less intimidating.

juvey21
06-19-2007, 02:52 PM
my top 10....and FIRST POST

1. Jay Bruce- looks like he has all the tools and has met every challenge so far

2. Joey Votto- any day now he should be brought up to the big club...would like to see him at 1st instead of left

3. Sean Watson- flamethrower, big guy with low walk numbers should be promoted

4. Johnny Cueto- great numbers last year while posting good but not great numbers this year...still shows the talent

5. Carlos Fisher- i hope wayne gives him a taste this year

6. Valaika- has been great ever since he signed...dont see a problem with his defense

7. Stubbs- high ceiling plays great defense..krivsky type of guy?

8. Devin Mesoraco- im excited to get a catcher in the system with his type of potential i hope he pans out

9. Daryl Thompson- doing good as of now hope he makes it so we could get some value in that lopez kearns debacle of a trade

10. Rafeal Gonzalez- 9-1 with a low ERA...strikeout numbers dont impress..anybody know what his fastball clocks in at??